22:06 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.5605
Lower highs from 0.5902; flat base at 0.5565-0.5580.
NZDUSD has been in a two-month downtrend since the 0.5902 early-September high, with price below a falling EMA(50) throughout. The mid-October rally stalled at 0.5710, a lower high just above the 38.2% level of the sep-oct fib. The 28 October drop then returned price to the base between the 0.5565 oct low and the 0.5579 nov low, where demand has stepped in twice. This week's bounce came on the post-midterm USD selloff rather than domestic strength. The soft NZ Q3 jobs data and the RBNZ hold left the Kiwi rejected at the 0.5658 cap on Thursday.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5658, 0.5710, 0.5800
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 0.5565 oct low would confirm a fresh lower-low and extend the downtrend
- A close above the 0.5658 cap would reopen the 0.5710 lower high; clearing that breaks the descending lower-highs trendline
- A recovery through 0.5710 would bring the 0.5800 round number, the September breakdown area, into view
- US NFP on Fri Nov 6 and the NZ election on Sat Nov 7 carry weekend gap risk that could materially shift this read
- Repeated failure to hold the 0.5579 nov low would weaken the base read