NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 5 November 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

23:47 UTC

Downtrend, early-Asia bounce stalling · RSI 44 · price 0.55951

Lower-high/lower-low chain; rebound capped at 0.5600.

NZDUSD slid about 70 pips from Thursday's Asia high at 0.5658 as USD recovered on firm claims and hawkish Fed talk. It broke the 0.5600 psych level late in NY and printed a rollover low at 0.5589. The early-Asia bounce stalled at 0.5599, exactly the 38.2% fib of the 0.5617 swing high to 0.5589 leg, with price back under EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 44.

Support: 0.55887, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56027, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back above 0.5600 psych and the 38.2% fib reopens the 0.5603 ny low and the 0.5617 swing high
  • Break of the 0.5589 rollover low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5575 3-week low
  • Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read

23:32 UTC

Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 46 · price 0.5598

Lower-high chain from 0.5658 Asian high; bounce off 0.5589 session low testing 0.5600 from below.

The 0.5658 Asian high faded through London. The slide gathered pace into the 13:30 UTC US claims beat and the NY session, then a lower high at the 0.5617 ny bounce gave way to a 0.5589 session low around the rollover. Early Asia has bounced into the 0.5600 round number, which coincides with the 38.2% of the NY leg fib, with RSI(14) back near 46.

Support: 0.5589, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5606, 0.5617

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above 0.5600 and the 0.5606 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; the 61.8% of the NY leg sits near 0.5606
  • Rejection at 0.5600 and a break of the 0.5589 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low
  • Only the 0.5617 ny bounce high regaining would mark a broader recovery of NY losses
  • Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) Friday could materially shift this read; thin Asia liquidity until then

23:17 UTC

Downtrend, momentum fading near lows · RSI 36 · price 0.55938

Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5658; small base above 0.5589.

Clean lower-high/lower-low chain since the 0.5658 Asian high. London broke the Asian range low at 0.5621, and the NY-session USD rebound into NFP extended the day's decline to a 0.5589 day low. Early Asia is now basing in a tight box under the 0.5600 psych level, with price below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 4 pips.

Support: 0.5589, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close above 0.5600 psych and the 0.56055 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
  • Loss of the 0.5589 day low exposes the 0.5575 3-wk low
  • Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
  • Saturday's NZ election adds weekend gap risk late in the week

23:03 UTC

Downtrend, momentum flattening at lows · RSI 33 · price 0.55924

Lower-high chain from the 0.5658 Asia high; tight post-rollover base at 0.5589.

NZDUSD has posted lower highs all day from the 0.5658 Asia high as the USD clawed back ground on the 189K claims print and hawkish Fed talk. The NY bounce high at 0.5617 capped price, and the grind extended to a 0.5589 session low around rollover. Early Asia is pressing the falling trendline and the 0.5595 late high, with RSI(14) near 33 and the base flattening.

Support: 0.55887, 0.5575, 0.5564

Resistance: 0.55949, 0.5600, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • A close above the falling trendline, the 0.5595 late high and the 0.5600 round number would break the lower-high chain
  • Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low reopens the 3-week low at 0.5575, then the 18-month low at 0.5564
  • The 0.5617 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib of the day's drop, is the upper limit of the current structure
  • Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the Saturday NZ election adds weekend gap risk

22:47 UTC

Downtrend, grinding to fresh lows · RSI 28 · price 0.55896

Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia-session peak at 0.5658.

Yesterday's Asian rally stalled at 0.5658, and price has stepped lower through London and NY as the USD clawed back on strong claims data. Lower highs from the 0.5617 NY bounce high define a falling trendline. Price now sits at the 0.5589 session low after the rollover, with the rollover high at 0.5595 capping and RSI(14) near 28, soft but not extreme.

Support: 0.55887, 0.5575, 0.5564

Resistance: 0.55949, 0.5600, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5600 round number and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
  • Acceptance below the 0.5589 session low opens the 3-week low at 0.5575, then the 18m low at 0.5564
  • A reclaim of the 0.5617 NY bounce high would mark a 38.2% retracement of the Asian high fib, which has not been reached so far
  • Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; thin Asia-session liquidity until then

22:32 UTC

Downtrend, steady lower highs · RSI 29 · price 0.5590

LH/LL chain from the Asian high; 0.5600 broken late NY.

Pair has printed lower highs since the 0.5658 Asian high, with London fading 0.5651 and the NY drop to 0.5603 setting the ny swing hi at 0.5617. The late-NY grind through the 0.5600 round number extended the leg to a 0.5589 session low at rollover as the USD recovered on the claims and productivity beats. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched, but there is no divergence yet.

Support: 0.55887, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number would mark the late-NY breakout as a false break
  • Close above the 0.5606 lower high, then the 0.5617 ny swing hi, breaks the lower-high chain
  • Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low
  • Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday, could materially shift this read

22:17 UTC

Downtrend, grinding lower into rollover · RSI 31 · price 0.55936

Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5658 Asian high; Asian range broken to the downside.

The pair faded about 70 pips from the 0.5658 Asian high. During NY it broke the 0.5611 Asian low as USD recovered on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk, then rallies capped at the 0.5616 NY bounce high and the 0.5606 lower high. It is now pinned just above the 0.5589 session low, below the 0.5600 round number and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) under 4 pips in thin rollover trade.

Support: 0.55887, 0.5575, 0.5564

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • A close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5606 lower high breaks the descending sequence and the NY trendline
  • Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low, then the 0.5564 18m low
  • Recovery toward the 0.5615–0.5623 fib zone (38.2–50%) would put the 0.5616 NY bounce high back in play
  • Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Friday) could materially shift this read

22:05 UTC

Downtrend, grinding to new lows · RSI 27 · price 0.55918

Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, 0.5600 broken.

NZD has faded steadily from the 0.5658 Asian high as the USD clawed back ground on strong claims and productivity data. NY broke the 0.5600 round number and has since ground to a fresh session low at 0.5591 on a chain of lower highs. RSI(14) near 27 is soft but not extreme, and ATR has compressed to about 4 pips into the late-NY lull.

Support: 0.55906, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • A close back above the 0.5600 round number would interrupt the lower-high sequence
  • Acceptance below the 0.5591 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low
  • A recovery through the 0.5617 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-session low decline, would break the downtrend structure
  • Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read

21:47 UTC

Downtrend, grinding to session lows · RSI 28 · price 0.55912

Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.

Steady lower-high sequence from the 0.5658 Asian high. The NY session broke the 0.5611 Asian low and the 0.5600 round number as USD recovered on firm claims and hawkish Fed talk. Price sits on the 0.5591 session low late in NY, with RSI(14) near 28 and no basing yet. The descending trendline is capping near 0.5597.

Support: 0.55906, 0.5575, 0.5564

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055, 0.56112

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the descending trendline would stall the downtrend read
  • Close above the 0.5606 lower high breaks the LH/LL sequence; the 0.5611 Asian low is the next cap
  • Failure to hold the 0.5591 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low, then the 0.5564 18-month low
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read

21:32 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs intact · RSI 26 · price 0.55931

Lower-high chain from the Asian high; NY broke below 0.5600 and is holding near session lows.

London faded the 0.5658 Asian-session high, and NY extended the slide through the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5592 session low. The move tracked a USD recovery on strong claims and hawkish Fed talk. Late in NY hours price is pinned near the lows, with the 0.5617 bounce high capping and RSI(14) near 26, soft but not extreme.

Support: 0.55916, 0.5575, 0.5564

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56165, 0.56197

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5592 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low, then the 0.5564 18-month low
  • Recovery above the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% fib near 0.5607 would mark the breakdown as a false break; the 0.5617 bounce high sits above
  • A reclaim of the 0.5620 london low would break the lower-high sequence
  • US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) and Saturday's NZ election could materially shift this read

21:17 UTC

Downtrend, grinding into late NY · RSI 24 · price 0.55932

Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian session high, 0.5600 handle broken.

NZDUSD has bled about 66 pips from the 0.5658 Asian session high as USD recovered on firm claims and hawkish Fed talk. NY broke the 0.5600 round number and printed a session low at 0.5592, with the 0.5617 NY bounce and the 0.5606 lower high capping. RSI(14) near 24 is oversold, but the late-NY drift has not yet produced a reversal bar.

Support: 0.55916, 0.5575, 0.5564

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5606 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
  • Extension below the 0.5592 session low puts the 0.5575 3-week low and 0.5564 18-month low in range
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
  • Thin liquidity around the NY close and rollover can distort the current session low

20:47 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs intact · RSI 28 · price 0.55961

Lower-high/lower-low chain since 0.5658 Asian high; Asian low and 0.5600 broken in NY.

The Asian rally to 0.5658 faded through London and NY as USD recovered on the claims and productivity beats and hawkish Fed talk. NY broke the Asian range low near 0.5611 and the 0.5600 round number, and late NY is printing a new day low at 0.5596 under a descending trendline. RSI(14) near 28 is stretched but not extreme.

Support: 0.55957, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back above the 0.5606 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
  • Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number vs acceptance below it
  • 0.5575 3-week low is the next reference below the day low
  • NY bounce high at 0.5617 caps the 38.2% fib zone of the session decline
  • Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read

20:32 UTC

Downtrend, extending to new session lows · RSI 28 · price 0.55966

Lower-high chain from the 0.5658 Asian high, 0.5600 broken late NY.

NZDUSD has faded about 60 pips from the 0.5658 Asian high, with lower highs through London and NY as the USD clawed back its election losses on the claims and productivity beats. Price slipped through the 0.5600 round number late NY and sits at the session low near 0.5597, with RSI(14) around 28.

Support: 0.55965, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055, 0.56165

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5606 lower high would break the lower-high chain
  • Failure to hold the 0.5597 session low opens the path to the 0.5575 3-week low
  • Recovery through the 0.5617 ny bounce high would undo the NY-session breakdown
  • US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) and weekend NZ election gap risk could materially shift this read

20:03 UTC

Intraday downtrend, lower highs intact · RSI 35 · price 0.5603

Lower-high/lower-low chain since NY open; testing 0.5600 handle late NY.

The Asia-session rally to 0.5658 on USD weakness faded through London as the USD regained ground. The 0.5620 base broke around the NY open from the 0.5627 ny open high, and price has since printed a lower high at 0.5617 and a session low of 0.5598, with RSI(14) near 35. Price now sits just above the 0.5600 handle late in NY hours, below the broken 0.5611 prior low.

Support: 0.5598, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5611, 0.5617, 0.5627

What it said to watch

  • A close back above the trendline and the 0.5611 prior low breaks the lower-high sequence
  • Failure to hold the 0.5598 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low
  • A recovery through the 0.5617 lower high reopens the 0.5627 ny open high
  • Asia session range around the 0.5600 handle is the next structural test
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read

19:47 UTC

Downtrend, late-NY drift at lows · RSI 34 · price 0.56025

Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5658 Asia high.

NZD/USD has printed a lower-high chain under a descending trendline from the 0.5658 Asia high. The USD rebound on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk triggered a 13-pip break from the 0.5627 NY high during NY hours. Price is now pinned at the 0.5600 handle just above the 0.5598 session low, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.

Support: 0.55984, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.56141, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5614 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
  • Failure to hold the 0.5598 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-wk low
  • 38.2% retracement of the drop sits near 0.5621, just below the 0.5627 ny high
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read

19:32 UTC

Downtrend, steady lower highs · RSI 35 · price 0.55998

Lower-high chain from Asian session high; pressing 0.5600 handle at session low.

The USD-driven Asian rally topped at 0.5658 and London faded it from 0.5651. The jobless claims beat (189K) into the NY open added a leg to 0.5612. Late NY is printing a fresh session low at 0.5599 under the 0.5600 handle, with the descending trendline capping each bounce. RSI(14) near 35 is soft but not oversold.

Support: 0.55992, 0.5575, 0.5560

Resistance: 0.56027, 0.56165, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back above the 0.5603 prior low and the descending trendline (~0.5609) would turn the dip under 0.5600 into a false break
  • Failure to hold the 0.5599 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low, then the 0.5560 18m low
  • M15 close above the 0.5617 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; 0.5627 pre-claims high sits just above the 38.2% retrace of the Asia high move
  • Fed Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; NZ election adds weekend gap risk

19:17 UTC

Downtrend, momentum flattening · RSI 38 · price 0.5605

Lower highs from Asia peak, basing at session low.

The Asia rally to 0.5658 has fully unwound. London ground lower along a line of lower highs, and the NY session broke the London low near 0.5620 as USD firmed on the 189K claims print and hawkish Fedspeak. Late NY is compressing above the 0.5603 session low, tested twice, with the bounce high at 0.5616 capping and the 0.5600 round number just below.

Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.5575

Resistance: 0.5616, 0.5620

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5575 3-week low
  • M15 close above 0.5616 bounce high and the lower highs line challenges the downtrend read
  • Reclaim of 0.5620 london low would neutralise the NY break
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read

19:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs into late NY · RSI 38 · price 0.56048

Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; retesting the session low.

The Asian-session spike to 0.5658 unwound through London. NY then broke the 0.5621 Asian low as the USD rebound gathered pace after firm jobless claims, printing a 0.5603 session low. Late NY highs at 0.5617 and 0.5614 are capping under the descending lower-high line, and price is retesting the session low just above the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) sits at 38 with no extreme, and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.

Support: 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.5621

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5603 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
  • Close above the 0.5617 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line
  • Reclaim of the 0.5621 Asian low would neutralise the NY range break
  • Fed Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) are the next scheduled USD catalysts and could materially shift this read

18:47 UTC

Downtrend, pressing session low · RSI 35 · price 0.56059

Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5658 Asian high.

Price has faded steadily from the 0.5658 Asian high through London and NY. USD recovered on firm claims and productivity data, and NY broke the 0.5621 Asian low to print a 0.5603 session low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5617 swing high, under the 23.6% fib of the Asian high fib move, and price is back near the session low after London close with RSI(14) around 35.

Support: 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.5621

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close below the 0.5603 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
  • A recovery above the 0.5617 swing high and back through the 0.5621 Asian low would neutralise the NY lower-high structure
  • A bounce into the 38.2% retracement of the Asian high fib near 0.5624 would test the broken Asian low zone
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read

18:32 UTC

Downtrend, momentum flattening into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.56109

Lower highs from 0.5658 Asia peak; compressing above 0.5603 NY low.

The Asia rally to 0.5658 fully unwound through London and NY as USD recovered on firm claims and hawkish Fed talk. NY pushed below the Asian low to the 0.5603 ny low, and the bounce stalled at the 23.6% retrace near the 0.56165 bounce high. Late NY price is compressing at 0.5609–0.5614 under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 40.

Support: 0.56087, 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.5626

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.56165 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
  • Reclaiming the 0.5626 ny breakdown level would undo the NY leg lower
  • Failure to hold the 0.5609 swing low exposes the 0.5603 ny low and the 0.5600 psych handle
  • Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; NZ election adds weekend gap risk

18:17 UTC

Intraday downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.56124

Lower highs off the London high; below the Asian range low, tight 0.5610–0.5616 base above the session low.

London and NY unwound the Asian rally to 0.5658 as USD firmed on the 189K claims beat and hawkish Fed talk, breaking below the asian low near 0.5610 to a session low at 0.5603. Late in the NY session the rebound stalled at the 0.5616 bounce high, at the 23.6% fib and the London downtrend line, leaving price compressed at 0.5610–0.5616.

Support: 0.5610, 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.5620, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5616 bounce high and the London downtrend line opens the 0.5620 breakdown level, then the 0.5627 ny open high
  • Failure to hold the 0.5610 asian low exposes the 0.5603 session low and 0.5600 psych
  • Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
  • Asian session thin liquidity; NZ election weekend gap risk follows Friday

18:03 UTC

Downtrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 43 · price 0.56121

Lower highs from the Asia session high; NY broke the Asian range low, now basing 0.5610-0.5617.

The Asia session high at 0.5658 faded through London as the USD rebounded on the 189K claims print and hawkish Fed talk. NY broke the Asian low at 0.5621 and printed a session low at 0.5603, just above the 0.5600 round number. The bounce stalled at 0.5617, near the 23.6% retracement of the Asia-to-NY decline, and price is now compressing below the bounce high with RSI(14) near 43.

Support: 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.5621

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5617 bounce high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain; the Asian low at 0.5621 sits just above
  • A break of the 0.5603 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
  • Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC Fri) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read

17:47 UTC

Downtrend, stalling above NY low · RSI 39 · price 0.56126

Lower highs from 0.5658 Asian high; tight base 0.5610-0.5617 late NY.

The Asia-session rally on post-midterm USD selling topped at 0.5658. Supply then capped every bounce through London. The 13:30 UTC US claims and productivity beats knocked price through the 0.5620 london low to a 0.5603 ny low. Late NY is now holding a micro base near 0.5610 beneath the descending line, with the 0.56165 bounce high capping.

Support: 0.5610, 0.56027

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.5620, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5620 london low and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5627 pre-ny high sits above
  • Failure at the 0.5610 micro base exposes the 0.5603 ny low; a break below confirms a fresh lower-low
  • Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read

17:32 UTC

Downtrend, bounce stalling · RSI 35 · price 0.56108

Lower highs from Asian high, Asian low lost.

NZD/USD has made a chain of lower highs since the 0.5658 Asian high as the USD pared its post-midterm losses after the claims and productivity beats. The selling broke the Asian range low near 0.5611 around the NY open and printed a session low at 0.5603. The bounce stalled at 0.5617 and price is back on 0.5611 after London close, with RSI(14) near 35.

Support: 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.56239, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.56165 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
  • Failure to hold the 0.5603 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
  • Reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 0.5624 and the 0.5627 lower high would shift the read toward range
  • Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read

17:16 UTC

Downtrend, pausing after NY low · RSI 39 · price 0.56128

Lower highs from the 0.5658 Asian high, bounce capped at trendline.

Lower highs have stepped down from the 0.5658 Asian high. The USD rebound on firm claims and hawkish Fed talk extended the slide through NY to a 0.5603 session low, a sweep below the overnight 0.5611 lows. The bounce stalled at the 0.5617 bounce high, right at the lower-highs trendline and near the 50% retrace of the NY drop.

Support: 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5617 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 0.5627 lower high next
  • Failure to hold the 0.5603 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read

17:03 UTC

Downtrend, oversold bounce stalling · RSI 40 · price 0.56139

Lower highs and lower lows since 0.5658 Asian-session peak.

Lower-high chain from the 0.5658 Asian-session peak carried through London and NY as USD recovered on the claims and productivity beats. The 14:30 UTC flush broke the 0.5620 prior lows and swept the asian low at 0.5611 to a 0.5603 session low. The bounce stalled at the 0.5617 bounce high, leaving price near 0.5614 with RSI(14) around 40.

Support: 0.56112, 0.56027

Resistance: 0.56165, 0.56197, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5620 prior lows would interrupt the lower-high sequence; 0.5627 lower high is the next cap
  • Failure to hold the asian low at 0.5611 reopens the 0.5603 session low
  • Rejection at the 0.5617 bounce high keeps the descending lower highs line intact
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the next major catalyst; thin post-NY liquidity into Asia until then

16:46 UTC

Intraday downtrend, late-NY bounce · RSI 39 · price 0.56135

Lower highs from the 0.5658 Asia peak; Asian low broken in NY.

Lower highs since the 0.5658 Asia peak as the USD rebound on the claims beat and productivity jump knocked NY out of its 0.5627 range top and below the 0.5611 Asian low, to a 0.5603 session low. The bounce after London close is pressing the descending trendline and ema20 near 0.5619, with RSI(14) at 39.

Support: 0.5611, 0.5603, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5627

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5619 ema20 and descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
  • Reclaiming the 0.5627 ny range top puts price back at the 38.2% of the Asia-high retrace
  • Failure to hold the 0.5611 Asian low, then the 0.5603 session low, exposes the 0.5600 psych level
  • Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read

16:32 UTC

Intraday downtrend, small bounce off session low · RSI 38 · price 0.56124

Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5658 Asia high; 0.5620 shelf broken in NY.

NZD/USD has fully unwound the Asia rally to 0.5658. Lower highs formed through London, and NY selling broke the 0.5620 shelf as the USD rebounded on the 189K jobless claims beat. The 0.5603 session low drew a bounce back to the 0.5611 Asian low; RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.

Support: 0.56112, 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • A close back above the 0.5620 broken shelf, with the lower-highs line and EMA20 also near 0.5619, would show the NY break stalling
  • The 0.5627 swing high and the 38.2% retrace of the 0.5658–0.5603 drop (~0.5624) cap any bounce
  • Failure to hold the 0.5611 Asian low reopens the 0.5603 session low and the 0.5600 round number
  • Fed's Williams on Friday at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read

16:16 UTC

Downtrend, oversold · RSI 27 · price 0.56056

Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia-session spike; overnight low broken in NY.

The USD rebound on the 189K claims print and hawkish Fed talk has unwound the Asia-session spike to 0.5658. Lower highs held through London, and the NY session broke below the 0.5611 prior low to a 0.5603 session low. RSI(14) is oversold near 27, ATR(14) is about 6 pips, and the latest lower high at 0.5620 caps the bounces.

Support: 0.56027, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56112, 0.56205, 0.56304

What it said to watch

  • Reclaim of the 0.5611 prior low weakens the breakdown read
  • Failure at the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5575 three-week low
  • Close above the 0.5620 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
  • Fib 50% at 0.5630 marks the midpoint of the Asia-to-NY drop
  • Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read

16:02 UTC

Downtrend, extending in NY session · RSI 35 · price 0.56116

Lower highs from Asia high, London low broken.

Steady lower-high sequence since the 0.5658 Asia session high. The first-hour-of-NY drop took out the 0.5620 london low and the overnight 0.5611 low, printing a 0.5608 session low as the USD recovers on the 189K claims print and hawkish Fed talk. RSI(14) near 35 is soft but not stretched, and ATR runs about 5 pips.

Support: 0.56077, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56197, 0.56273

What it said to watch

  • A close back above the 0.5620 london low would mark the NY breakout as a false break
  • A close above the 0.5627 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% fib zone
  • Loss of the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
  • Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read

15:46 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since the Asia high · RSI 33 · price 0.56123

Lower-high/lower-low chain from 0.5658, now testing overnight low.

The Asia-session high at 0.5658 has faded into a steady lower-high chain through London and NY as USD recovered on firm claims and productivity data. Pushes lower at 14:30 and 15:30 UTC have brought price back to the 0.5611 overnight low late in NY hours, with RSI(14) at 33 soft but not stretched and ATR(14) near 5 pips.

Support: 0.56112, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56225, 0.56273, 0.56292

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5611 overnight low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
  • M15 close above the 0.5623 lower high, then the 0.5627 ny high, breaks the lower-high trendline
  • 38.2% fib of the Asia high fib move sits at 0.5629, capping any bounce structure
  • Fed's Williams Fri 09:30 UTC and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read

15:31 UTC

Downtrend, Asia rally fully unwound · RSI 39 · price 0.56194

Lower highs since London open; NY low retesting the overnight low.

The Asia session rally to 0.5658 on post-midterm USD selling has fully reversed, with the falling highs from London open into NY hours capping each bounce. The 13:30 UTC claims beat extended the slide, and the first hour of NY dipped to 0.5612, retesting the overnight day low. Price sits at 0.5619 with RSI(14) near 39, not stretched.

Support: 0.5612, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56273, 0.56295, 0.5635

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5627 swing high and the falling highs line breaks the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% fib at 0.5630 sits just above
  • Reclaiming the 50% fib at 0.5635 would neutralise the London-NY selloff read
  • Failure to hold the 0.5612 day low exposes the 0.5600 round number
  • Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read

15:16 UTC

Downtrend, lows holding near 0.5611 · RSI 36 · price 0.56185

Lower highs since London open, double low at 0.5611-0.5612.

London faded the 0.5658 Asian high in a steady lower-high sequence as USD firmed on the 189K claims beat. A NY-hours spike to 0.5612 was rejected at the overnight double low, and the spike base near 0.5615 has held since. Price sits at 0.5618 under the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 36 and not oversold.

Support: 0.5615, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56273, 0.56296

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5611 double low confirms a fresh lower-low
  • Recovery through the 0.5627 ny high and the lower-high trendline breaks the London sell-off structure; 38.2% fib at 0.5630 sits above
  • Loss of the 0.5615 spike base exposes the double low again
  • Fed's Williams Fri 09:30 UTC and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read

14:46 UTC

Downtrend, intraday lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 29 · price 0.56164

London-NY lower-high sequence; London low broken, price testing the Asian low.

The Asia rally to 0.5658 has fully unwound. London printed a steady run of descending highs, and early in the NY session a 13-pip bar broke the 0.5620 London low and tagged 0.5612, just above the 0.5611 Asian low, as USD firmed on strong claims and productivity data. RSI(14) is near 29, low but not extreme, and price sits under the 0.5627 NY high.

Support: 0.56112, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.56197, 0.56273, 0.56295

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5611 Asian low confirms a lower low and opens the 0.5600 round number
  • Reclaim of the 0.5620 London low would mark the latest drop as a false break
  • Close above the 0.5627 NY high and the 0.5630 fib 38.2 would break the descending highs line
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) is the next major catalyst for this structure

14:31 UTC

Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 37 · price 0.56238

Asian rally fully unwound; lower highs through London, twin lows at 0.5620 in NY.

The Asia-session run from the 0.5611 asian low to 0.5658 on post-midterm USD selling has been fully retraced. Lower highs ran through London, and USD firmed in NY on the claims and productivity beats. Price is now holding twin ny lows at 0.5620 mid-NY session, with the bounce high at 0.5627 capping, RSI(14) near 37 and below both EMAs.

Support: 0.56195, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56273, 0.56309, 0.56342

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5620 ny lows exposes the 0.5616 prior lows and the 0.5611 asian low
  • Close above the 0.5627 bounce high and reclaim of the 0.5631 london lows would end the lower-high sequence, with the 38.2% fib at 0.5634 next
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the next major driver of USD direction

14:17 UTC

Intraday downtrend, stalling at 0.5620 · RSI 37 · price 0.56253

Lower highs since London open, double low at 0.5620.

London faded the Asian rally off 0.5658 in a lower-high sequence from the 0.5651 London high as USD clawed back losses on strong claims and productivity data. The slide stalled at a double low near 0.5620, and early NY is nudging just above the London lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) sits around 37 and ATR(14) is about 3.8 pips.

Support: 0.5620, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56273, 0.56358, 0.56513

What it said to watch

  • A close below the 0.5620 double low resumes the lower-low chain toward the prior NY low at 0.5616 and the Asian low at 0.5611
  • Acceptance above the 0.5627 NY high confirms the break of the London lower-highs trendline and exposes the 0.5636 lower high
  • Price back under the trendline near 0.5624 marks the break as a false break
  • No scheduled data in the next 8h; US NFP on Friday at 13:30 UTC is the next major risk to this read

14:03 UTC

Downtrend from Asian high, stalling at session low · RSI 38 · price 0.56248

Lower highs/lower lows since 0.5658, basing at 0.5619.

The Asia-session rally to 0.5658 on post-midterm USD selling has unwound through London and into the first hour of NY. Firmer USD after the claims and productivity beats carved lower highs from the 0.5651 London high down to a 0.5619 session low, tested twice. Price is pressing the descending trendline off the London high with RSI(14) near 38. The prior low at 0.5616 sits just beneath.

Support: 0.56194, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56388, 0.56513

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5632 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 50% retrace at 0.5639
  • Failure to hold the 0.5619 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5616 prior low and 0.5611 late-NY low
  • Rejection at the descending trendline keeps the London high sequence intact
  • US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack remarks today are an intraday risk

13:46 UTC

Intraday downtrend, momentum stalling · RSI 33 · price 0.56235

Lower highs from 0.5651 since London open, double low forming near 0.5620.

The Asia rally to 0.5658 on post-midterm USD selling has unwound as the dollar recovered through London, leaving a chain of lower highs and price near the 78.6% retrace of that rally. Early NY has a double low at 0.5620, with the descending trendline and the 0.5625 lower high capping the bounce. RSI(14) is near 33 and the 0.5634 broken base sits overhead.

Support: 0.56195, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5634

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5625 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 0.5634 broken base into view
  • Failure to hold the 0.5620 double low exposes the 0.5616 prior low and the 0.5611 rollover low
  • Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could shift USD tone during NY hours, ahead of Friday's NFP

13:31 UTC

Downtrend since London open, momentum flattening · RSI 31 · price 0.56229

Lower-high chain from the London high, price back at the Asian rally base.

The London session unwound the Asia rally as the USD recovered. A steady lower-high chain from the 0.5651 london high took price back to the 0.5619 session low, just above the 78.6% fib of the Asia rally fib. The last three bars are compressing between 0.5619 and the 0.5625 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 4 pips going into US Jobless Claims at the NY open.

Support: 0.56194, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56358, 0.56513

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5619 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5611 rollover low
  • Close above the 0.5625 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5636 swing high next
  • Only a recovery through the 0.5651 london high revives the Asia rally structure
  • US Jobless Claims/ULC (13:30 GMT) and Fed's Hammack (13:50 GMT) could materially shift this read

13:16 UTC

Downtrend through London, RSI near oversold · RSI 29 · price 0.56219

Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5658 Asian high.

The Asian rally to the 0.5658 asian high came on post-midterm USD selling. London has since unwound most of it as the dollar recovered, printing a chain of lower highs from 0.5651 and a fresh 0.5620 session low. Price trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 29, and a 0.5625 minor high is the nearest cap. Yesterday's 0.5616 prior low and the 0.5611 window low sit just beneath.

Support: 0.56197, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56247, 0.56358, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT land at the NY open and could materially shift this read
  • A close back above the 0.5636 lower high breaks the descending line and the lower-high sequence
  • Failure to hold the 0.5620 session low exposes the 0.5616 prior low and the 0.5611 window low
  • A reclaim of the 0.5625 minor high would mark the first higher high since the London selloff began

13:03 UTC

Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 31 · price 0.56235

Lower-high chain under descending trendline, sitting on fresh session low.

The post-midterm USD selloff lifted the pair from the 0.5611 rollover low to a 0.5658 Asian high. Since London open, a USD rebound has driven a steady lower-high sequence under a descending trendline, retracing beyond 61.8% of the Asia rally to a 0.5620 session low. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not extreme; the prior NY low at 0.5616 sits just below.

Support: 0.56197, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56309, 0.56358, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 GMT, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT, could materially shift this read
  • Failure to hold the 0.5620 session low exposes the prior NY low at 0.5616, then the 0.5611 rollover low
  • M15 close back above the descending trendline and the 0.5631 broken low breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5636 lower high is next

12:46 UTC

Intraday downtrend, oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.56212

Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5658 Asia high; Asia rally almost fully unwound.

London has unwound the post-midterm Asia rally as USD recovered on firm data, with lower highs stepping down from the 0.5651 london high and the slide accelerating into the London-NY transition. Price is testing the 0.5620 session low at the 78.6% retracement of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) near 21 oversold.

Support: 0.5620, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56358, 0.56513

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5620 session low opens yesterday's 0.5616 NY low and the 0.5611 swing low from the rollover
  • M15 close back above the 0.5630 break level and the lower-highs trendline would stall the downtrend read; the 0.5636 lower high caps above
  • US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 GMT, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT, could materially shift this read

12:31 UTC

Intraday downtrend, Asia gains erased · RSI 24 · price 0.56243

Lower highs since London open, testing Asian base.

The Asia-session rally to 0.5658 has been almost fully retraced through London. Price slid along a falling trendline of lower highs from the 0.5651 London open peak, through the 0.5636 lower high, back to the 0.5621 Asian base as the USD pared its post-midterm losses. RSI(14) is near 24, stretched but not extreme, with the NY open and US data next.

Support: 0.5621, 0.5616, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5651

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5621 Asian base exposes the 0.5616 prior NY low and the 0.5611 rollover low
  • An M15 close above the 0.5636 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
  • A reclaim of the 0.5651 London open high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
  • US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 GMT, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT, could materially shift this read
  • Price is near the full retracement of the Asian rally fib; a close below its base completes the reversal

12:16 UTC

Intraday downtrend, grinding lower · RSI 26 · price 0.56278

Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5658 Asian high.

London has extended the fade from the 0.5658 Asian high as the USD pared post-midterm losses. The move has printed a lower-high chain at the 0.5651 London high and the 0.5643 lower high, and London lows near 0.5634 have given way to a fresh session low at 0.5627. Late in the London session, price sits just under the 61.8% retrace of the 0.5611–0.5658 Asia rally, with RSI(14) near 26 (soft, not extreme) and ATR around 3.5 pips.

Support: 0.56267, 0.56212, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.5634, 0.56434, 0.56513

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close back above the 0.5634 london lows and the lower-high trendline would break the lower-high sequence.
  • Failure to hold the 0.5627 session low exposes the 0.5621 fib 78.6 retrace and then the 0.5611 swing low.
  • US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 GMT, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT, could materially shift this read into the NY open.

12:03 UTC

Intraday downtrend, grinding lower · RSI 32 · price 0.56304

Lower highs and lower lows through London, mid-Asian range.

NZD/USD has faded from the 0.5658 Asia high as the USD pared post-midterm losses in European trade. London has printed lower highs from the 0.5649 London high down to the 0.5638 lower high. Price is now testing the 0.5629 London low, which is also the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 32.

Support: 0.5629, 0.5624, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5649, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5629 London low and the 61.8% retracement exposes the 0.5624 Asia base, then the 0.5611 Asia low.
  • An M15 close above the 0.5638 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.5649 London high sits above that.
  • Only a recovery through the 0.5658 Asia high would undo the fade from the session top.
  • US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 GMT, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read at the NY open.

11:46 UTC

Intraday down, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 0.56314

Asia rally unwinding; lower highs and lower lows through London.

The Asia session rally from the 0.5621 asia base to the 0.5658 asian high came on post-midterm USD selling and has unwound through London. Each bounce has been rejected at a descending line now near the 0.5636 lower high. Price is pressing the 61.8% retrace of the asia rally fib at the 0.5629 london low, with RSI(14) near 36.

Support: 0.5629, 0.5621, 0.5616

Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close below the 0.5629 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5621 asia base and the 0.5616 ny low from yesterday
  • A close above the 0.5636 lower high breaks the descending line and exposes the 0.5651 london high, then the 0.5658 asian high
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could shift USD during NY hours, with NFP due Friday

11:31 UTC

Intraday downtrend, fading the Asian rally · RSI 33 · price 0.56313

London lower highs from 0.5651, pressing the 0.5631 session low.

The USD-selling bounce topped at the 0.5658 Asian high. London has printed a chain of lower highs from the 0.5651 London high and is now leaning on the 0.5631 session low, which has been tested three times. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally, RSI(14) near 33 and below both EMAs.

Support: 0.56309, 0.5624, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56358, 0.56513, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5631 session low and the 0.5629 61.8% of the Asian rally exposes the 0.5624 rally base, then the 0.5611 overnight low
  • Close above the 0.5636 lower high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the London downtrend read
  • US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could shift USD into the NY open
  • Friday NFP and the weekend NZ election could materially shift this read

11:16 UTC

Intraday downtrend, fading the Asian spike · RSI 36 · price 0.56341

Lower highs and lower lows through London; price near the 50% retrace of the Asian rally.

Post-midterm USD selling lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5621 Asian base to the 0.5658 Asian high. London has since faded the move along a lower-high trendline, with the 0.5643 swing high and the 0.5638 lower high capping. Price is sitting at the 50% retrace near 0.5635, just above the 0.5631 session low.

Support: 0.56309, 0.56291, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.56379, 0.56434, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5638 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence
  • Failure to hold the 0.5631 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5629, then the 0.5621 Asian base
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could shift USD into the NY session
  • Friday NFP and the weekend NZ election keep event risk elevated

11:02 UTC

Intraday downtrend off the Asian high · RSI 37 · price 0.56338

Lower highs and lows through London, holding Asian range mid.

The USD-driven Asian rally from the 0.5611 swing low topped at the 0.5658 asian high. London has since printed lower highs at 0.5651, 0.5643 and 0.5638, sliding to a 0.5631 london low near the 50% retracement of the Asia leg with RSI(14) at 37, even as the broader dollar stays offered.

Support: 0.56309, 0.56291, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.5638, 0.56434, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • Close below the 0.5631 london low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5629, then the 0.5611 swing low
  • Close above the 0.5638 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence, with the 0.5643 london high next
  • Recovery through the 0.5658 asian high would put the one-week high zone back in play
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read

10:46 UTC

Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 33 · price 0.56318

Asia rally retracing; London lower-high/lower-low chain.

Broad USD selling lifted the pair in Asia from the 0.5611 swing low to a 0.5658 session high. London has since printed a rejection at the 0.5651 london high, then a chain of lower highs and a break of the 0.5634 double low. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib near 0.5629 with RSI(14) at 33, soft but not oversold.

Support: 0.5629, 0.5621, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5643, 0.5651

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5629 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5621 rally base, then the 0.5611 swing low
  • Reclaiming the 50% fib at 0.5635 and the 0.5643 lower high would break the London downtrend line
  • Only a move back through the 0.5651 london high would cancel the pullback read
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could shift the USD driver

10:31 UTC

Intraday pullback, momentum fading · RSI 35 · price 0.5635

Lower highs since Asia peak, compressing on 0.5634 floor.

The Asia session rally on broad USD weakness topped at the 0.5658 session high near the one-week high. London has since carved lower highs at the 0.5651 asia pivot and the 0.5644 lower high, with price now pressing the 0.5634 london low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the overnight move. RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 4 pips show a slow, contracting grind below both EMAs.

Support: 0.5634, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5634 london low opens the 0.5621 asian base where the Asia rally began
  • Close above the 0.5644 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs sequence
  • BoE decision at 12:00 GMT and US claims plus Fed's Hammack from 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
  • A move back to the 0.5651 asia pivot and 0.5658 session high retests the rejection zone

10:16 UTC

Pullback from Asian peak, lower highs · RSI 35 · price 0.56364

Lower highs through London, base at 0.5634 london low.

Broad USD selling lifted NZD/USD from the 0.5611 asia low to a 0.5658 asian high. London has since printed lower highs at the 0.5651 london high and the 0.5643 lower high, while the 0.5634 london low held twice near the 50% retrace of the Asian leg. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 35.

Support: 0.5634, 0.5629, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5634 london low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5629, then the 0.5611 asia low
  • Close above the 0.5643 lower high breaks the london lower highs trendline and reopens 0.5651
  • BoE at 12:00 GMT and US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT could shift USD and this read

09:46 UTC

Pullback from Asian high, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 0.56358

Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5658 Asia peak, price at the 50% retracement.

Asia ran the pair from the 0.5611 asia low to a 0.5658 asia high on broad USD selling. London has faded the move with a rejection at the 0.5651 london high and a 0.5643 lower high as the dollar claws back in early Europe. Price is now pressing the 0.5634 swing low, right at the 50% retracement of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.

Support: 0.5634, 0.56291, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56434, 0.56513, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5634 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the fib 61.8 at 0.5629
  • Failure to hold 0.5629 exposes the 0.5611 asia low
  • A reclaim of the 0.5643 lower high and the descending trendline negates the London fade, with the 0.5651 london high and 0.5658 asia high above
  • US jobless claims, unit labor costs and Fed's Hammack (13:30–13:50 UTC) could materially shift this read

09:17 UTC

Asian rally fading, London printing lower highs · RSI 46 · price 0.56391

Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5658 Asian high, holding the fib midpoint.

The Asian session rally from the 0.5611 asian low to 0.5658, driven by broad USD selling, met rejection at the high. London has since printed lower highs at the 0.5651 london high and the 0.5644 lower high, with a 0.5634 london low just above the 50% retracement. Price is pinned at EMA50 near 0.5639 and below EMA20, with RSI(14) at 46 showing no extreme.

Support: 0.5634, 0.5629, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close above the 0.5644 lower high breaks the London sequence and reopens 0.5651–0.5658 (london high, asian high)
  • Failure to hold the 0.5634 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5629 61.8% fib, then the 0.5611 asian low
  • US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could shift this read in NY hours

09:02 UTC

Pullback from Asia high, lower highs forming · RSI 45 · price 0.56409

Lower highs 0.5658/0.5651 inside Asian range, testing 38.2% fib.

The post-rollover rally on broad USD weakness topped at the 0.5658 asian high during Asia. Sellers capped a London open retest at 0.5651, leaving a lower high, and price slid to the 0.5634 london low. It now sits at the 38.2% fib near 0.5640, just under EMA20.

Support: 0.5634, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5651 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5658 asian high
  • Failure to hold the 0.5634 london low, the 50% fib, leaves 0.5621 asian low exposed
  • US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC fall in the first hour of NY and could shift this read

08:46 UTC

Pullback within Asia-session rally, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 0.5639

Lower highs from 0.5658 Asian high, London open retracing toward fib 50%.

Broad post-midterm USD selling lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5621 asia base to a 0.5658 asian high, with rejection there and a lower-high sequence at 0.5655 and 0.5651 since. London open extended the pullback to a 0.5634 london low at the 50% retracement, with price now back under yesterday's 0.5646 high and RSI(14) at 43.

Support: 0.5634, 0.5629, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5634 london low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5629, then the 0.5621 asia base
  • Reclaim of the 0.5651 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 0.5658 asian high
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift USD and this read during NY hours

08:16 UTC

Pullback from Asia high, lower highs forming · RSI 41 · price 0.56401

Lower highs 0.5658/0.5651 against a twin low at 0.5638.

The Asia session rally from the 0.5621 asia base, driven by broad USD selling, topped at 0.5658. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.5651, and the London open pushed it back to a twin low at 0.5638, near the 50% retrace. Price is now below EMA20, sitting just above EMA50, with yesterday's 0.5645 prior high overhead and RSI(14) at about 41.

Support: 0.5638, 0.5630, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5638 twin low breaks the pullback floor and exposes the 0.5630 asia pivot, then the 0.5621 asia base
  • Recovery above the 0.5645 prior high and the 0.5651 lower high reopens the 0.5658 asia high and breaks the lower-high trendline
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read during NY hours

08:03 UTC

Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 51 · price 0.56418

Lower highs off Asian high, holding 50% retrace.

Broad post-midterm USD selling drove an Asia rally from the 0.5621 Asian low through the 0.5645 prior high to a 0.5658 Asian high, the one-week high. London open was rejected at 0.5651, the London high, and dipped to a 0.5638 London low near the 50% retrace and EMA50. Price is back below the prior high and EMA20, RSI(14) neutral at 51 within a lower-highs sequence.

Support: 0.5638, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.56455, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5638 london low and 50% retrace exposes 0.5630, then the 0.5621 asian low
  • Close above the 0.5651 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.5658 asian high
  • Holding below the 0.5645 prior high keeps the Asia breakout in question
  • US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read during NY hours

07:47 UTC

Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 0.56434

Lower highs since 0.5658 asian high, 38.2% retrace holding.

Asia ran from the 0.5611 asian low to the 0.5658 asian high on post-midterm USD selling. The first hour of London stalled at 0.5651, the london high, and the drop to the 0.5638 swing low held at the 38.2% retrace. Price sits just under ema20 with RSI(14) near 44, and lower highs keep the pullback inside the Asian range.

Support: 0.5638, 0.5635, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5638 swing low exposes the 0.5635 fib 50% and the 61.8% retrace at 0.5629
  • An M15 close above the 0.5651 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.5658 asian high
  • Reclaiming ema20 at 0.5646 would ease the pullback read
  • A move below the 61.8% retrace puts the 0.5611 asian low back in view
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 could reprice USD during NY hours

07:32 UTC

Intraday uptrend stalling, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 0.5642

Asia rally capped at 0.5658, pullback holding 0.5640 swing low.

Post-midterm USD selling drove a 47-pip Asia session rally from the 0.5621 rally base to the 0.5658 Asia high. Since then price has printed a lower high at 0.5651 and is back on the 0.5640 swing low, the 38.2% retracement, ahead of London open. It is trading just below yesterday's 0.5646 prior high, with RSI(14) near 41.

Support: 0.5640, 0.5635, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5651, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5640 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the fib 50% at 0.5635, then the 0.5621 rally base
  • Reclaim of the 0.5646 prior high and a close above the 0.5651 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the pullback read
  • Asia high at 0.5658 is the session cap; a break above it extends the rally structure
  • US jobless claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read

07:16 UTC

Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 56 · price 0.56479

Asia breakout above prior high; higher low at 50% fib, lower high at 0.5651.

Post-midterm USD selling carried Asia from the 0.5621 asia base to a 0.5658 asian high, clearing yesterday's 0.5646 London prior high. The pullback held the 50% fib of the asia leg at the 0.5639 swing low. Price is back near 0.5648 into London open, under a 0.5651 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.

Support: 0.56455, 0.56393, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.56513, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5651 lower high reopens the 0.5658 asian high
  • Failure to hold the 0.5646 prior high puts the 0.5639 swing low back in play
  • A break of the 0.5639 swing low unwinds the 50% fib of the asia leg toward the 0.5621 asia base
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read

07:03 UTC

Uptrend, consolidating below the Asia high · RSI 62 · price 0.56499

Asia higher high at 0.5658, higher low at 0.5639, now retesting 0.5650.

Asia ran about 47 pips from the 0.5611 rollover low to the 0.5658 Asia high on the post-midterm USD selloff. The pullback held the 0.5639 swing low near the 38.2% retracement, and price is back at the 0.5650 psych level into the European open. Yesterday's 0.5646 London prior high now sits just below.

Support: 0.56455, 0.56393, 0.56347

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back below the 0.5639 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 50% at 0.5635
  • Acceptance above 0.5650 psych, then the 0.5658 Asia high, extends the higher-high chain
  • Losing the 0.5646 prior high returns price to the post-03:15 UTC pullback zone
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the USD leg behind this move

06:47 UTC

Uptrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 62 · price 0.56463

HH/HL chain from 0.5611; higher low at 0.5639 holding.

Asia ran the post-midterm USD selloff from the 0.5611 rollover low to a 0.5658 Asia high, clearing yesterday's London prior high at 0.5646. The pullback found a swing low at 0.5639, near the 38.2% fib. Price is now retesting the prior high into London open, with the 0.5650 round number capping the last three bars.

Support: 0.56455, 0.56393, 0.56347

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5639 swing low breaks the rising support and exposes the fib 50% at 0.5635
  • A close above the 0.5650 round number reopens the 0.5658 Asia high
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the USD tone behind this bounce

06:33 UTC

Asia uptrend, now pulling back · RSI 57 · price 0.56443

Lower highs off 0.5658 Asia high, retesting broken prior high.

Broad post-midterm USD selling drove a 47-pip Asia rally from the 0.5611 rollover low to the 0.5658 Asia high, clearing Wednesday's 0.5646 prior high. A lower-high sequence since 03:15 UTC has pulled price back to retest that prior high, and the 0.5639 pullback low is holding near the 38.2% fib heading into London open.

Support: 0.56393, 0.56347

Resistance: 0.56455, 0.5650, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • A close below the 0.5639 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 0.5635 and weakens the Asia rally structure
  • A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5650 round number reopens the 0.5658 Asia high
  • US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the USD leg driving this move

06:16 UTC

Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 46 · price 0.56441

Asian breakout above prior high, shallow pullback retesting it.

Asia ran about 47 pips from the 0.5611 asian low to the 0.5658 asian high on broad post-midterm USD selling, clearing yesterday's London prior high at 0.5646. The pullback stalled at the 0.5639 swing low, near the 38.2% fib, and price is now pinned just under the prior high and EMA20 into the London open.

Support: 0.56393, 0.5630, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56505, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5639 swing low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone and the 0.5630 asia shelf
  • A break of the asia shelf would erase most of the Asian rally back toward the 0.5611 asian low
  • A close back above the 0.5646 prior high and the 0.5650 lower high reopens the 0.5658 asian high
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the USD leg of this move

06:03 UTC

Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 40 · price 0.56406

Asia breakout above prior high, now lower highs into retest.

Asia cleared yesterday's London high at 0.5645 on broad post-midterm USD selling and topped at the 0.5658 session high. A steady run of lower highs has since pulled price back to the 38.2% fib near 0.5640 ahead of London open, under EMA20 but above EMA50, with RSI(14) near 40.

Support: 0.5640, 0.5630, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5650, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • Hold of 0.5640 (38.2% fib) keeps this a retest of the broken prior high; failure exposes the 0.5630 swing low
  • M15 close back above the lower-highs line and 0.5645 prior high puts 0.5650 psych and the 0.5658 session high back in play
  • Loss of 0.5630 opens a deeper retracement toward the 0.5611 asian low
  • US Challenger cuts 10:30 UTC and jobless claims 13:30 UTC could materially shift this USD-led read

05:46 UTC

Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 50 · price 0.5644

Asia HH/HL leg broke prior-day high; now a shallow pullback retesting it.

The Asia session extended the USD-led bounce from the 0.5621 Asia low to a 0.5658 session high, clearing yesterday's 0.5646 London high, before a lower high at 0.5655 started a fade. Price is now retesting the 0.5642 prior high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) back to 50 about two hours ahead of London open. The 0.5650 psych level overhead has capped the move so far.

Support: 0.5642, 0.5630, 0.5621

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5655, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5642 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 50% fib near 0.5640, then the 0.5630 swing low
  • A reclaim of 0.5650 psych and the 0.5655 lower high puts the 0.5658 session high back in play
  • A loss of the 0.5630 swing low leaves the 0.5621 asia low as the last pivot of the rally
  • US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC could shift the USD leg driving this pair

05:31 UTC

Uptrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 56 · price 0.56442

Asia break above prior high, now retesting it.

Asia session extended the USD-led post-midterm bounce from the 0.5611 rollover low, clearing yesterday's London prior high at 0.5645 and tagging the 0.5658 Asia high above 0.5650 psych. Since then a lower high and slide back to 0.5644 has price retesting the prior high, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56 and price just under EMA20.

Support: 0.56445, 0.5640, 0.5630

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5640 fib 38.2 turns the retest into a false break and exposes the 0.5630 swing low
  • Reclaim of 0.5650 psych and the 0.5658 Asia high resumes the higher-high chain
  • US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC plus Fed's Hammack could shift USD tone and this read

05:17 UTC

Intraday uptrend, pulling back in late Asia · RSI 62 · price 0.56458

Asian breakout above prior high, lower highs into a retest.

Asia session extended the USD-led bounce from the 0.5611 post-rollover low to a 0.5658 asian high, clearing Wednesday's 0.5645 prior high. A run of lower highs under 0.5650 psych has since pulled price back to retest that level. RSI(14) has cooled to ~62 and ATR is near 4 pips with London open approaching.

Support: 0.56455, 0.5640, 0.56347

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5645 prior high exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5640 and the 50% fib near 0.5635
  • M15 close through the lower highs line and above 0.5650 psych puts the 0.5658 asian high back in play
  • US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could shift the USD tone behind this bounce

05:03 UTC

Uptrend, pausing below session high · RSI 65 · price 0.56476

Asian breakout above prior high, now retesting it.

Broad post-midterm USD selling drove a 47-pip Asia rally off the 0.5611 rollover low. The move cleared yesterday's London prior high at 0.5646 and topped at the 0.5658 session high. Late in the Asia session, ahead of London open, price is retesting 0.5646 with two holds at 0.56461. RSI(14) has cooled to about 65 and supply is capping just under the 0.5650 psych level.

Support: 0.5646, 0.5640, 0.5630

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5658

What it said to watch

  • M15 close below the 0.5646 prior high turns the retest into a false break and exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally at 0.5640, then the 0.5630 swing low
  • Close back above 0.5650 psych reopens the 0.5658 session high
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack could shift the USD-led bid

04:46 UTC

Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 66 · price 0.56482

Asia HH/HL rally from 0.5611 stalled at 0.5658, now basing near the broken London high.

Post-midterm USD selling carried NZDUSD from the 0.5611 asia low through yesterday's 0.5646 london high to a 0.5658 asia high. Price slipped back under the 0.5650 psych level and printed a lower high at 0.5655. It is now retesting the london high with RSI(14) cooling to about 66, and only about 20% of the Asia rally has been retraced.

Support: 0.56455, 0.56301, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56549, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close below the 0.5646 london high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.5640, then the 0.5630 swing low
  • Reclaiming the 0.5650 psych level and the 0.5655 lower high, followed by a close above the 0.5658 asia high, resumes the HH chain
  • Loss of the 0.5611 asia low would unwind the whole session rally
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC during NY hours could shift the USD leg driving this bounce

04:32 UTC

Uptrend, momentum stalling below session high · RSI 73 · price 0.56488

Asia breakout above prior high, now retesting it from above with lower highs.

Asia session extended the USD-selling rally from the 0.5611 rollover low on the post-midterm dollar slide. Price broke Wednesday's London prior high at 0.5646 and tagged a 0.5658 session high. It now sits just under the 0.5650 psych level, printing lower highs since 03:15 UTC while retesting the prior high from above, with RSI(14) cooling near 73.

Support: 0.56455, 0.56402

Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back below the 0.5646 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.5640 fib 38.2 of the Asia rally
  • Close above the 0.5658 session high resumes the HH/HL chain; repeated stalling at 0.5650 psych keeps the micro range intact
  • London open in ~2.5h is the first test of the Asian range
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:30–13:50 UTC could reprice the USD leg behind this rally

04:16 UTC

Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 67 · price 0.56496

Asia HH/HL chain broke yesterday's London high; first lower high now printing.

Asia extended the USD-led post-midterm bounce off the 0.5611 rollover low, clearing yesterday's London high at 0.5645 and printing an Asia high at 0.5658. A rejection there left a lower high at 0.5655, and price is now sitting on the 0.5649 pullback low around the 0.5650 retest zone, with RSI(14) easing from the low 70s.

Support: 0.56489, 0.56455, 0.56301

Resistance: 0.56549, 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back below the 0.5645 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
  • Loss of 0.5645 exposes the 0.5630 asia pivot, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally
  • Close above the 0.5658 asia high resumes the HH chain after the 0.5655 lower high
  • London open in under 3h typically resets the Asian range
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack (13:30/13:50 UTC) could reprice the USD leg during NY hours

04:02 UTC

Uptrend, stalling below session high · RSI 76 · price 0.56522

Asia HH/HL chain broke prior high, now consolidating above 0.5650.

The Asia session carried the post-midterm USD selloff from the 0.5611 rollover low through the prior high at 0.5645, set by yesterday's London session. The 0.5658 session high was rejected and price is holding just above the 0.5650 psych level. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme.

Support: 0.5650, 0.56455, 0.56347

Resistance: 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back below the 0.5645 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 50% fib near 0.5635
  • Clearance of the 0.5658 session high extends the Asia leg; repeated failure there keeps price pinned around the 0.5650 psych level
  • London open in about 3h is likely to test whether the Asian range holds
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the USD leg behind this bounce

03:46 UTC

Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 76 · price 0.56504

Asia HH/HL chain, breakout above prior high.

The Asia rally ran from the 0.5611 post-rollover low to a 0.5658 session high, clearing the 0.5645 prior high on broad USD selling after the Democratic midterm sweep. Price is now holding just above the 0.5650 psych level with RSI(14) near 76 as the last two bars compress below the session high.

Support: 0.5650, 0.56455, 0.56301

Resistance: 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5645 prior high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
  • M15 close above the 0.5658 session high extends the higher-high chain
  • A break of the Asia trendline and the 0.5630 swing low erases the session's higher-low sequence
  • US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (13:50 UTC) later today could shift the USD leg behind this move

03:32 UTC

Uptrend, RSI stretched near 80 · RSI 80 · price 0.56519

Asia HH/HL chain from rollover low, above prior high.

The Asia session climbed off the 0.5611 rollover low in a clean HH/HL Asia leg. It broke Wednesday's London prior high at 0.5646 and the 0.5650 psych level as the post-midterm USD selloff extended. RSI(14) sits near 80, and the latest bar left a 6-pip upper wick at the 0.5658 session high.

Support: 0.5650, 0.56455, 0.56301

Resistance: 0.56581

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close back below the 0.5646 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
  • Loss of the 0.5630 swing low breaks the HL chain and the HL trendline
  • Failure to clear the 0.5658 session high into London open leaves a rejection in place
  • US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could shift the USD leg behind this move

03:16 UTC

Intraday uptrend, stretched · RSI 81 · price 0.5652

HH/HL chain off asian low, prior high broken.

Asia session extended the post-midterm USD selloff, lifting NZDUSD about 42 pips off the 0.5611 asian low in a steady HH/HL chain and through yesterday's London prior high at 0.5646 to a 0.5653 session high. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched; the last pullback held the 0.5630 swing low, which aligns with the asian trend line.

Support: 0.5646, 0.5630, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5653

What it said to watch

  • M15 close back below the 0.5646 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
  • Loss of the 0.5630 swing low and the asian trend line breaks the HH/HL chain
  • Rejection at the 0.5653 session high with RSI above 80 would mark the move as exhausted
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack (13:30–13:50 UTC) could reset USD tone during NY hours

03:02 UTC

Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 0.56483

Higher-low chain off the 0.5611 Asia low, prior high cleared.

The Asia session extended the post-midterm USD selloff, lifting the pair about 39 pips off the 0.5611 asia low and through Wednesday's London prior high at 0.5646. RSI(14) is near 79. The rising trendline from that low has three touches, and the 0.5651 session high is the cap so far.

Support: 0.56455, 0.56301, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56506

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold the 0.5646 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
  • M15 close below the rising trendline and the 0.5630 swing low (50% fib) breaks the higher-low chain
  • Close above the 0.5651 session high clears the post-RBNZ 0.5650 area
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack, Thu 13:30–13:50 UTC, could reverse the USD leg

02:46 UTC

Intraday uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 76 · price 0.56467

HH/HL chain in Asia, marginal break of prior high.

The Asia session has rallied 36 pips off the 0.5611 low on broad post-midterm USD softness, printing a session high at 0.56472 just above yesterday's London prior high at 0.56455. A higher low at 0.5636 and a swing low at 0.5630 keep the HH/HL chain intact along the Asia rally trendline. RSI(14) near 76 is stretched but not extreme.

Support: 0.56455, 0.56357, 0.56301

Resistance: 0.56472, 0.5650

What it said to watch

  • An M15 close back below the 0.56455 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
  • Loss of the 0.5630 swing low and the Asia rally trendline breaks the HH/HL chain; 38.2–50% of the Asia rally sits at 0.5633–0.5629
  • 0.5650 bounce high from the post-RBNZ move is the next reference above the session high
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack (13:30/13:50 UTC) are later in the day and could shift USD tone

02:32 UTC

Uptrend, testing prior high · RSI 77 · price 0.56437

HH/HL chain from the 0.5611 swing low through the Asia session.

Asia session has climbed about 33 pips off the 0.5611 swing low set after the daily rollover gap, with higher lows at 0.5621 and 0.5630 under a rising trendline. Price is now pressing the 0.5645 prior high from London on the post-midterm USD selloff, with RSI(14) near 77, hot but not extreme.

Support: 0.56301, 0.56237, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56455, 0.5650

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5645 prior high clears the London top and opens the 0.5650 round number
  • Rejection at 0.5645 would leave a double-top shape against the London high
  • A close below the rising trendline and the 0.5630 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5624
  • Losing 0.5611 swing low negates the Asia rally
  • US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC could shift USD direction later in the day

02:16 UTC

Intraday uptrend, testing prior highs · RSI 71 · price 0.56397

HH/HL chain through Asia, pressing 0.5642-0.5646 cap.

Asia session has extended the post-midterm USD selling. Price climbed about 21 pips from the 0.5621 asia low in a clean HH/HL chain and is now pressing the 0.5642 asia high, just under yesterday's 0.5646 london high. RSI(14) sits near 71 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, with the 0.5630 higher low anchoring the advance and sitting near the 50% retracement of the Asia rally.

Support: 0.56301, 0.5621, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56421, 0.56455

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5646 london high clears the prior-day cap and extends the HH chain
  • Rejection at the 0.5642 asia high would mark a second failure in the 0.5642-0.5646 zone
  • Close below the 0.5630 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL sequence and puts the trendline and 0.5621 asia low in focus
  • Loss of 0.5611 swing low would unwind the whole post-rollover rebound
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack later Thursday could shift the USD-driven read

02:03 UTC

Intraday uptrend, testing prior highs · RSI 72 · price 0.56397

Asia HH/HL chain off 0.5611 session low, pressing yesterday's range top.

Asia session has climbed about 29 pips off the post-rollover session low at 0.5611, with a higher low at 0.5630, and is now retesting the 0.5643–0.5646 band where yesterday's NY high and London day high capped. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but not stretched; post-midterm USD softness remains the driver.

Support: 0.5630, 0.5621, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56455, 0.5650

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5646 day high clears yesterday's range top and puts the 0.5650 round number in play
  • Rejection at the NY high and loss of the 0.5630 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain, exposing the 0.5621 swing low
  • A drop back through the 0.5611 session low would reverse the entire Asia leg
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack later Thursday could shift the USD tone behind this move

01:46 UTC

Intraday uptrend, testing prior highs · RSI 69 · price 0.5636

Higher-low chain off rollover low, capped below NY/London highs.

Early Asia session has stacked higher lows off the 0.5611 rollover low, lifting price to 0.5636 on the broad post-midterm USD selloff. Price now sits just under the 0.5642 NY high with RSI(14) near 69. The 0.5630 asian hl and the rising trendline are the nearest pivots.

Support: 0.5630, 0.5621, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5646

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5646 london high clears the window high and opens the 0.5650 post-RBNZ bounce high
  • Break of the rising trendline and 0.5630 asian hl returns focus to the 0.5621 swing low
  • Loss of the 0.5611 rollover low invalidates the Asian higher-low chain
  • US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC, ahead of Friday NFP, could reset the USD-driven read

01:31 UTC

Sideways, early-Asia bounce stalling below resistance · RSI 64 · price 0.56316

Higher lows off 0.5611 under a lower-highs line from the 0.5646 prior high.

Early Asia lifted from the 0.5611 asia low to a 0.5637 asia high, extending the post-midterm USD selloff, and the rally has stalled there. Price is holding the 0.5630 minor low, inside the 24h range capped by the 0.5643 ny high and the 0.5646 prior high from the London session.

Support: 0.5630, 0.56239, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56365, 0.56425, 0.56455

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5646 prior high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5650 post-RBNZ high
  • A second rejection at the 0.5637 asia high or the 0.5643 ny high keeps the range intact
  • Loss of the 0.5630 minor low and the 0.5624 fib 50% retracement puts the 0.5611 asia low back in play
  • US data from 10:30 UTC (Challenger, then jobless claims at 13:30) could shift the USD read later today

01:17 UTC

Intraday uptrend off the session low, momentum moderate · RSI 63 · price 0.56342

Higher lows through Asia, mid-upper portion of yesterday's 0.5616–0.5646 range.

Early Asia session has lifted from the thin post-rollover session low at 0.5611 to a session high at 0.5637 on a rising support line, with the 0.5631 pullback low holding as the post-midterm USD selloff carries over. Price sits below the 0.5643 ny high, where the firm ADP print triggered a dollar bounce and a fade back to the 0.5616 ny low, and the 0.5646 day high.

Support: 0.56307, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56365, 0.56425, 0.56455

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5637 session high brings the 0.5643 ny high and 0.5646 day high back into view
  • Break of the 0.5631 pullback low and the rising support line returns the read to range, with the 0.5616 ny low next
  • Failure to hold the 0.5611 session low would confirm a lower low on the day
  • US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack Thu 13:30–13:50 UTC could materially shift USD tone later in the day

01:02 UTC

Intraday downtrend challenged, early-Asia bounce · RSI 66 · price 0.56341

Lower-high chain from 0.5646 broken; recovery off 0.5611 swing low.

Wednesday's USD-selloff rally peaked at the 0.5646 day high in London, then printed lower highs at 0.5643 and 0.5632 into a 0.5611 swing low after rollover. Early Asia has lifted price off the 0.5624 Asian shelf and through the 0.5632 broken high and the 61.8% fib of that decline, with a session high at 0.5637 and RSI(14) near 66.

Support: 0.56317, 0.5624, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56365, 0.56425, 0.56455

What it said to watch

  • Holding above the 0.5632 broken high keeps the lower-highs trendline break intact; a slip back under it marks a false break
  • A close above the 0.5637 session high exposes the 0.5643 lower high and 0.5646 day high
  • Loss of the 0.5624 Asian shelf reopens the 0.5611 swing low
  • Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and labour costs could shift USD tone later in the day

00:46 UTC

Lower highs since London peak, early-Asia rebound testing the turn · RSI 65 · price 0.56324

Lower-high sequence from 0.5646; bounce off 0.5611 swing low now at 61.8% retrace.

The early-Asia rebound off the 0.5611 swing low, set after the rollover gap, is pressing the 0.5632 prior high. That level is also the 61.8% retrace of the London-high slide. The post-midterm USD selloff carried London to 0.5646, but firm ADP capped the follow-up at the 0.5643 NY high and the pair faded into the close.

Support: 0.56317, 0.5621, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56455

What it said to watch

  • Sustained trade above the 0.5632 prior high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 0.5643 ny high and 0.5646 london high back in play
  • Slip back below the 0.5621 asia base re-exposes the 0.5611 swing low
  • US jobless claims and unit labour costs at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read

00:32 UTC

Pullback from London high, early-Asia rebound · RSI 57 · price 0.56279

Lower highs since 0.5646 day high; NY range 0.5616–0.5632 swept at rollover, then reclaimed.

The rollover dip below the 0.5616 ny low to 0.5611 failed and was reclaimed in early Asia. Price is now back at the 50% retracement of the day-high-to-rollover-low drop near 0.5628, pressing the 0.5632 swing high, with post-midterm USD softness underpinning the bounce. ATR is compressed near 4 pips as Asia volume stays thin.

Support: 0.56243, 0.56163, 0.56112

Resistance: 0.56317, 0.56425, 0.56455

What it said to watch

  • M15 close above the 0.5632 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 0.5646 day high, with the 0.5643 ny open high next above
  • A move back below the 38.2% fib at 0.5624 puts the 0.5616 ny low and 0.5611 rollover low back in play
  • US jobless claims and unit labour costs (Thu 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP

00:16 UTC

Pullback from London high, flattening in early Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.56245

Lower highs since 0.5646; 0.5611-0.5625 range.

Post-midterm USD selling lifted the pair from 0.5591 to a 0.5646 session high in London. NY faded it after firm US data, printing a 0.5616 NY low, and highs have stepped lower since. The 0.5611 rollover low was bought back, and early Asia is sitting at the 38.2% fib of that rally (0.5625), hugging the EMAs with ATR near 4 pips.

Support: 0.5616, 0.5611

Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5632, 0.5646

What it said to watch

  • Close above the 0.5632 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs since 0.5646
  • Failure to hold the 0.5611 rollover low (61.8% fib) exposes 0.5600
  • Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and unit labor costs could shift the USD leg behind the move

00:02 UTC

Pullback from London high, flat into Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.56234

Lower highs from 0.56455; rotating 0.5611–0.5632.

Post-midterm USD selling carried London through the prior Asian high at 0.5613 to a london high of 0.56455. Firm ADP capped NY at a lower high of 0.56425 and the pair faded to the ny low at 0.5616. Price now sits near the 38.2% retrace of that rally at ~0.5621, after a thin rollover dip to 0.5611 was reclaimed; the late high at 0.5625 caps early Asia.

Support: 0.56163, 0.56112, 0.5600

Resistance: 0.5625, 0.56317, 0.56455

What it said to watch

  • Close above the 0.5632 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the london high
  • Loss of the 0.5611 rollover low puts the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% retrace in play
  • Hold of the ny low at 0.5616 keeps the 0.5616–0.5625 late high band as the active range
  • US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read

All markets that day · Today’s NZD/USD Live Scan in the terminal