22:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing near the lows · RSI 38 · price 0.55986
Sep-Oct decline into a 0.5565-0.5710 range; lower high capped at 38.2%.
NZDUSD fell steadily from 0.5929 in early September to the 0.5565 Oct low and has since held a five-week range. The October rebound stalled at the 0.5710 swing high, right at the 38.2% retrace of that decline and under the descending trendline. Since then, the Oct 28 RBNZ hold bar and this week's Q3 jobs miss have dragged price back to retest the floor, with a marginal swing low at 0.5579 before post-midterm USD weakness lifted the close to 0.5599, below the ema20 near 0.5630 and the falling 50-day average.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5652, 0.5710
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5565 oct low confirms a lower low and resumes the downtrend
- Close back above the ema20 and the 0.5652 rbnz bounce high returns price to the upper half of the range
- Rejection near the 0.5710 swing high or the descending trendline keeps the lower-high sequence intact
- Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) and the NZ vote on Nov 7 could materially shift this read