NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in late-NY range · RSI 47 · price 0.55643
Lower highs from 0.5614 Asian high; flat 0.5561–0.5567 base since NY.
Hot US CPI drove the 0.5614–0.5559 drop from the Asian high through London and NY. Price bottomed at the 0.5561 NY low, then went flat in a 0.5561–0.5567 range, and rollover spread spikes printed a 0.5559 low. Early Asia sits fractionally below the ema20 at 0.5563 and under the ema50 at 0.5570, with RSI(14) recovered to 46.6 from 31.3.
Support: 0.5561, 0.5559
Resistance: 0.5567, 0.5570, 0.5596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 rollover low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.5540
Break of the 0.5567 range top tests the ema50 at 0.5570; reclaiming the 0.5596 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
ATR 3.7 is inflated by rollover spread bars; Asian-session ranges likely run tighter
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and the Thursday Fed speaker slate are the next scheduled catalysts
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.55624
Tight 0.5561–0.5570 range below falling EMAs after NY selloff.
The post-CPI USD bid took the pair from the 0.5614 Asian high to the 0.5562 NY low. Price has since compressed in a 0.5561–0.5570 range, closing just under the ema20 and below the ema50, with the range top near 0.5570. Rollover-hour wicks probed a 0.5559 session low and were reclaimed. RSI is back to 45 from 31, and ATR of 3.8 pips is inflated by rollover spreads.
Support: 0.55621, 0.55587, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55634, 0.5570, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 session low breaks the range and opens the 0.5540 19m low
M15 close above the 0.5570 range top (ema50 at 0.5570) ends the compression and exposes the 0.5596 london high
Holding above the 0.5562 ny low through Asia keeps the range read intact
US jobless claims and Fed speakers on Thursday could extend the USD bid and override the range
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 49 · price 0.55644
Tight 0.5559–0.5567 base after NY sell-off.
The post-CPI USD bid drove a ~50-pip slide from the Asian high near 0.5614 through London and NY. Since NY afternoon, price has compressed between the 0.5559 session low and the 0.5567 range top into early Asia. RSI(14) has rebounded to 48.7 from 31, and ATR is widening off a 2.2-pip trough; price is back above ema20 but still capped by ema50 at 0.5571, near the 38.2% level of the NY drop fib.
Support: 0.55634, 0.55587
Resistance: 0.5567, 0.55706, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5567 range top brings ema50 and the NY drop fib 38.2% near 0.5571–0.5573 into play, then the 0.5596 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.5559 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5540 area
Thin Asia liquidity after rollover; US jobless claims and Fed speakers from 13:30 UTC Thu are the next scheduled catalysts
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 32 · price 0.55589
NY range 0.5561–0.5567 after selloff, edging lower at rollover.
London broke below the 0.5600–0.5614 Asian range. The hot-CPI USD bid then extended the drop to 0.5562 in NY, and the pair has held a 0.5561–0.5567 range since, capped by the range top and below a falling ema20 and ema50. Price is printing a marginal session low near 0.5559 in thin rollover trade. RSI(14) at 32.2 is near but not in oversold, and ATR of 3.4 pips is lifted by rollover spread spikes.
Support: 0.55588, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55638, 0.5567, 0.55713
What it said to watch
Sustained closes below the 0.5559 session low extend the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5540 19m low
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5564 and the 0.5567 range top returns price to the NY consolidation
Close above the ema50 at 0.5571 would mark the first break of the intraday lower-high chain
Thursday Fed-speak slate (Hammack 14:00 UTC onward) could extend or reverse the post-CPI USD bid
Lower highs from London, late-NY range 0.5561–0.5567 tested at floor.
NZD/USD gave up the Asian-range highs near 0.5614 and set lower highs through London and NY. The hot US CPI follow-through drove the slide, which stalled in a 0.5561–0.5567 range from mid-NY. Around rollover, price is pressing the range floor near the 0.5559 rollover low, below ema20 (0.5564) and ema50 (0.5572), with RSI(14) at 36.1 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.55587, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55643, 0.55672, 0.55718
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 rollover low breaks the late-NY range floor and opens the 19m low zone near 0.5540
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.5564 and the 0.5567 range top would neutralise the drift; ema50 at 0.5572 and the lower highs line sit above
ATR expanded from 2.2 to 3.4 on wide rollover spread bars; early Asia liquidity is thin and wicks may overstate the range
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.55625
Lower highs from London; 0.5561–0.5569 range since early NY.
USD extended its post-CPI rally, taking NZD/USD from the 0.5614 Asian high through a series of lower highs into a 0.5562 low early in the NY session. It has since compressed in a 0.5561–0.5569 range below a falling ema20 (0.55646) and ema50 (0.55722), with ATR down to 2.8 pips. The rollover spike to 0.55587 at the Asia open snapped back inside the range.
Support: 0.5561, 0.55587
Resistance: 0.55646, 0.5569, 0.55722
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5561 range low and the 0.55587 rollover low points to the 0.5540 area
M15 close above the 0.5569 range top would break the lower-highs sequence and expose the ema50 at 0.55722
Thin early-Asia liquidity: spread spikes around rollover can distort the range edges
Thursday Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC and Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Lower highs since the London high at 0.5596; tight base 0.5561–0.5569 after the NY drop.
London broke below the 0.5591–0.5614 Asian range, and the NY open drop extended lower as the USD built on its post-CPI rally, leaving a chain of lower highs. Since then price has held a 0.5561–0.5569 base below the ema20 (0.55648) and ema50 (0.55726). The late-session bar printed a marginal new session low at 0.55607, with RSI(14) at 31.8 and ATR down to 2.3 pips.
Support: 0.55607, 0.5560, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55648, 0.55686, 0.55726
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5560 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5540 19m low zone
Reclaiming the ema20 and a close above the 0.5569 range top would break the lower-highs line and neutralise the read
Asia session open and fresh NZ card-spending data could test the thin base
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 37 · price 0.55631
Lower highs from Asia; post-NY range 0.5561–0.5569.
The USD bid after the hot US CPI print took NZDUSD from the 0.5614 Asian high to a 0.5561 low in the NY session. It has held a flat 0.5561–0.5569 range since, with the ema20 at 0.5565 capping each lift. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is at 36.6, and ATR has compressed to 2.2 pips from 3.8 heading into the Asia open.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55652, 0.55686, 0.55731
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 range top and the ema50 at 0.5573 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5561 range low exposes the 0.5540 low flagged in the digest
Thursday's Fed speakers and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
Just-released NZ card spending data is low impact; a large surprise could jolt the thin Asia open
London and NY sold off from the 0.5603–0.5614 Asian range as post-CPI dollar strength extended. The leg bottomed at the 0.5561 range low by 17:15 UTC. Since then price has held a 6-pip box between the range low and the 0.5567 range high, with ATR(14) compressed to 2.3 pips and RSI(14) at 34 below both EMAs and the ema20 overhead.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55672, 0.55735
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5567 range high and ema20 breaks the consolidation, with the 0.55735 ema50 / 38.2% fib next
Failure to hold the 0.5561 range low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 19m low
Thu US jobless claims and the Fed-speak slate are the next scheduled drivers for USD
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight base · RSI 34 · price 0.55624
Post-selloff range 0.5561–0.5569 below both EMAs, price at range low.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried NZDUSD from the 0.5614 Asian high through the 0.5583 London low, then a NY selloff extended to 0.5563. Price has held a 0.5561–0.5569 range for about six hours and now sits at the range low after NY close, below the ema20 at 0.55657. ATR(14) has compressed to 2.4 pips and RSI(14) at 33.6 has eased back from the sub-25 oversold dip.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55657, 0.55686, 0.55826
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5561 session low ends the range and exposes the prior low at 0.5540
Close above the 0.5569 range top and the ema20 opens a retracement of the selloff toward the 38.2% fib near 0.5574 and then the london low at 0.5583
Thin Asia session liquidity on a 2.4-pip ATR can produce outsized range breaks
US jobless claims and the Fed-speak slate on Thu from 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5614 Asian high; tight base above 0.5561 since NY.
The hot US CPI follow-through drove a selloff from the 0.5614 Asian high through London and NY, with a downtrend line of lower highs intact and a 0.5561 session low printed near 17:00 UTC. Since then price has held a 0.5561–0.5569 consolidation below the ema20 (0.5566) and ema50 (0.5575). ATR has compressed to 2.5 pips and RSI(14) has recovered to 38 from sub-25 oversold readings.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55664, 0.55686, 0.55749
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5561 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 19m low zone
Close above the 0.5569 range top and ema20 breaks the consolidation and tests the downtrend line near ema50 at 0.5575
ATR at 2.5 pips into the Asia session open; expansion out of the range sets the next leg of the selloff or a deeper fib retracement
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.55653
Lower highs from Asian high; tight base above NY low.
Follow-through from the hot US CPI print drove a 50-pip slide from the 0.5614 Asian high, with London breaking the Asian range and NY extending to the 0.5561 NY low. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5561–0.5569 range, with ATR(14) down to 2.6 pips and price capped just under the ema20 at 0.5567. RSI(14) has recovered to 39.6 from the mid-20s.
Support: 0.5561, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55666, 0.5569, 0.55753
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 range top and ema20 opens a test of the ema50 and lower-highs line near 0.5575
Failure to hold the 0.5561 NY low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 19-mo low
Thursday's US jobless claims and heavy Fed-speak slate could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight late-NY range · RSI 40 · price 0.55653
Lower highs from the 0.5614 Asia high; flat range 0.5561–0.5569 since the NY low.
The sell-off from the 0.5614 Asia high carried through London and accelerated in early NY as hot US CPI repricing kept the USD bid. Price has since held a 0.5561–0.5569 range below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) recovering from the mid-20s to 40.2 and ATR(14) compressing to 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5554
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55757, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 range top would put the ema50 at 0.5576 and the 0.5600 psych level back in view
Break below the 0.5561 session low resumes the lower-highs sequence toward the 0.5540 19m low zone
Thin late-NY and Asia liquidity alongside sub-3 pip ATR favours range-bound trade until a session-level catalyst
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.55653
Lower highs from Asia; tight base above 0.5561 since NY lows.
The hot US CPI follow-through drove a lower-highs sell-off from the Asian high near 0.5614 to a 0.55611 session low in NY hours. Since then price has based in a 6-pip box under the range high at 0.55686. It sits below a flattening ema20 and a falling ema50, with RSI back near 40 from the mid-20s and ATR compressing to 2.8 pips into the late-NY lull.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55669, 0.55686, 0.55762
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55686 range high and ema20 ends the consolidation and tests the lower highs line toward the ema50 at 0.5576
Failure to hold the 0.55611 session low resumes the downtrend, with the 0.5540 19m low zone flagged in the digest below
Thin liquidity around the daily rollover can distort the range edges, as the opening gap did yesterday
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 42 · price 0.55663
Lower highs from 0.5614; late-NY range 0.5561–0.5569.
The Asian rally to 0.5614 reversed through London and NY as the post-CPI dollar bid extended, carrying NZDUSD to a 0.5561 session low. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5561–0.5569 range just below the ema20 at 0.5567. RSI(14) has recovered from 21 to 42 and ATR has shrunk to 2.9 pips. Each bounce has stalled under the descending swing high line.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55766, 0.55956
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5569 range top and the ema20 opens a retest of the ema50 at 0.5577.
A break of the 0.5561 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 19m low zone.
Price back above the 0.5596 swing high would break the lower-high chain from 0.5614.
Thin Asia session liquidity; Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers could expand the 2.9-pip ATR range.
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY low · RSI 43 · price 0.55667
Tight 0.5561–0.5569 range below the London breakdown, lower highs intact.
London broke below the Asian range (0.5604–0.5614), and the drop extended to 0.5562 in early NY as the USD built on its post-CPI rally. Since then price has held a 0.5561–0.5569 range for about five hours, with RSI(14) recovering from 16 to 43 and ATR compressing to 3 pips. Late in the NY session it is pressing the range top just under the ema20, with the ema50 at 0.5577 overhead.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.5577, 0.5582
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5569 range top and the ema20 opens a test of the 0.5577 ema50, near the 50% retracement of the London-NY leg fib
The 0.5582 breakdown shelf and 61.8% retracement mark the upper limit of the corrective read; acceptance above it breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.5561 range low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 zone, just above the 19m low area
Thin late-NY and Asia liquidity; Thursday's US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers are the next USD catalysts
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.55646
Lower highs from Asian high, 0.5561–0.5569 consolidation.
The USD bid from Tuesday's hot CPI pulled NZDUSD off the 0.5614 Asian range high through London and NY, down to a 0.5561 session low. Late NY has held a tight consolidation between that low and the 0.5569 range top, just under the ema20 at 0.5567. ATR(14) has compressed to 3 pips, and RSI(14) has recovered to 37 from 16 despite a marginal lower low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 0.55611
Resistance: 0.55672, 0.55686, 0.55774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55686 range top and ema20 ends the consolidation and exposes the ema50 at 0.5577
Break below the 0.55611 session low resumes the downtrend leg
Thin Asia session ahead; Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims is the next USD catalyst
Post-selloff range 0.5561–0.5569 below falling EMAs.
Hot US CPI kept USD bid. London broke below the 0.5599–0.5614 Asian range, and the early-NY breakdown from 0.5585 extended the Asian high to NY low drop to 0.5561. Late NY is now boxed between the ny low at 0.5561 and the range top at 0.5569, under the ema20 at 0.55675. RSI(14) has recovered to 34.7 from a 16 low and ATR has compressed to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.5561, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55675, 0.5569, 0.5585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 range top and ema20 ends the late-NY range read
Break of the 0.5561 ny low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 19-month low zone
Reclaim of the 0.5585 breakdown level would mean the London-NY selloff has stalled
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Williams 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from Asian peak; tight 0.5561–0.5569 box late NY.
Hot US CPI follow-through saw London break the 0.5600 Asian floor. A lower high at the 0.5596 swing high then gave way to an NY slide to 0.5561. Price has since compressed in a 0.5561–0.5569 box late in NY, capped by ema20 (0.5568) and below ema50 (0.5579), extending the lower highs sequence. RSI(14) has recovered to 35 from a 16 extreme, and ATR(14) has eased to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55785, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 range high turns the box into a corrective bounce toward ema50 / fib 50% near 0.5578
Break of the 0.5561 range low resumes the downtrend, with the 0.5540 prior low zone next
Expansion from the 3.2-pip ATR out of the box marks the next intraday leg
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.5565
Lower highs from 0.5596; tight 0.5561–0.5569 base below ema20.
The hot US CPI dollar bid took NZDUSD from the 0.5614 Asian high, through the 0.5583 London low and into a 0.5562 low in the first hours of NY. Since then price has based in a 0.5561–0.5569 range low/top box, capped by the ema20 at 0.55682, while RSI(14) recovered from 16 to 37 and ATR compressed to 3.3 pips. The lower-high trendline from the 0.5596 swing still caps the move, and the 38.2% fib of that leg sits near 0.5574.
Support: 0.5561, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55682, 0.5583, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5561 range low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 19-mth low area
Close above the ema20 / 0.5569 range top and the lower-high trendline opens a retest of the 0.5583 london low
Reclaiming the 0.5600 pivot would neutralise the post-CPI leg on this timeframe
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 38 · price 0.55657
Lower highs from Asia; tight 0.5561–0.5569 NY range.
After the hot US CPI print, London broke below the Asian range near 0.5600. Sellers kept the 0.5614 Asia high to 0.5562 leg on lower highs. NY has since based in a 0.5561–0.5569 range, with RSI(14) recovering from 16 to 38, ATR easing to 3.5 pips, and price capped just under the range top and ema20.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55797, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 range top and ema20 ends the late-NY consolidation and exposes ema50 at 0.5580
Failure to hold the 0.5561 range low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.5596 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu from 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 32 · price 0.55646
Tight NY range 0.5561–0.5569 after London-NY selloff.
London broke below the Asian range, and NY extended the hot-CPI USD bid from the 0.55956 swing high to a 0.55611 session low. Price has since compressed under the ema20 at 0.55688, with marginal lower lows against RSI(14) recovering from 16.1 to 31.9 and ATR easing to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55688, 0.55761, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 near 0.5569 breaks the NY range top; the 0.5576 breakdown level sits above
Failure to hold the 0.5561 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5540 19-month low zone
Retracement of the selloff from the 0.55956 swing high stays shallow while price holds below the 38.2% level
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC and Thu Fed speakers are the next scheduled drivers
Hot US CPI kept the USD bid. NY broke the London low at 0.5583 and slid to 0.5562, and price has since compressed in a tight box under ema20 at 0.5569, below a lower-highs line from 0.5596. A marginal new session low at 0.5561 came with RSI(14) at 33.5, up from 16.1. That is a mild bullish divergence, but lower highs remain intact.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55694, 0.55826, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 (0.5569) breaks the lower-highs line and the consolidation read; 0.5583 london low is next overhead
Failure to hold the 0.5561 session low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5540 19m low
ATR(14) at 3.7 pips signals compression; late-NY into Asia liquidity is thin. Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers are the next scheduled catalysts
Lower highs since the Asia high near 0.5614; tight box after London close.
Sellers held control from the 0.5613–0.5614 Asia double high. The NY session broke London's 0.5582 low, the breakdown level, as the hot US CPI repricing kept USD bid. Since 14:30 UTC price has compressed in a 0.5561–0.5569 box below the ema20, with ATR easing to 3.8 pips. The fresh 0.5561 session low came with RSI at 30.8 versus 16.1 at the prior low, a bullish divergence.
Support: 0.55611, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55699, 0.55823
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 range top and ema20 at 0.5570 ends the compression and exposes the 50% retracement of the NY leg near 0.5578
Rebounds that stall under the 0.5582 breakdown level keep the lower-high sequence intact
Acceptance below the 0.5561 session low voids the divergence and opens the 0.5540 19-month low zone
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker slate could reprice USD and shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 26 · price 0.55614
Lower highs from Asia; tight 0.5562–0.5569 box late NY.
London broke the Asian range low and the slide accelerated into early NY as the post-CPI dollar bid extended. Price is now pinned to the 0.5562 NY low, tested three times since 14:45 UTC, inside a 0.5562–0.5569 box below ema20 (0.5571) and under the lower-high trendline from the Asian high. RSI(14) is oversold at 25.7 but holding above its 16.1 trough as price retests the low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR compresses to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.5562, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5569, 0.55705, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5562 ny low extends the downtrend through the 0.5560 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5569 bounce high and ema20 at 0.5571 breaks the box higher, with the 0.5600 pivot next
Lower-high trendline near 0.5580 has capped every bounce since Asia; a break would end the sequence
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and a heavy Fed speaker slate could reset this read
Lower highs from Asian range; tight base 0.5562-0.5569.
London broke below the 0.5600-0.5614 Asian range and the NY open extended the slide to a 0.5562 ny low, as USD kept bidding on the hot CPI repricing of Fed hike odds. Since then price has based in a 0.5562-0.5569 box after London close. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.9 but recovered from a 16 low on the retest of the lows, with price below the falling ema20 (0.5571) and ATR(14) easing to 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.5562, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5569, 0.55714, 0.55826
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5569 bounce high breaks the late-NY box; 0.5571 ema20 sits directly above
Retracement toward the 61.8% fib of the London-NY drop at 0.5583 meets the london low, where supply would be tested
Failure at the 0.5562 ny low and 0.5560 psych level extends the lower-low chain
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC are the next catalysts
16:45 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 24 · price 0.55632
Lower highs from the Asian high, tight base at the NY low.
Lower highs from the 0.5614 Asian high: London broke 0.5600 and NY extended to the 0.5562 NY low as the post-CPI USD bid followed through. Price has held a 0.5562–0.5569 band for two hours, with RSI(14) oversold at 24.4 and price below the ema20 at 0.5572. The 0.5582 London low sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asian high to NY low drop.
Support: 0.5562, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55722, 0.55823
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5560 psych level extends the downtrend toward the 0.5527–0.5540 lows
Close above the 0.5569 range top and the ema20 at 0.5572 breaks the base; the 0.5582 london low / 38.2% fib is next
A break of the lower highs trendline would end the intraday sequence
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC could shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 25 · price 0.55629
Lower highs from the Asian high; NY low at 0.5562 holding.
London broke the Asian range floor near 0.5600 and NY extended the slide from the 0.5614 Asian high to a 0.5562 NY low, as post-CPI USD demand carried through. After London close, price is basing in a tight 0.5562–0.5569 band below both EMAs. RSI(14) is 25.1, up from a 16 extreme, and ATR is easing to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.55622, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55731, 0.55826
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5569 bounce high and the ema20 at 0.5573 would print the first higher high since the Asian session
A move back to the 0.5583 london low would test the lower highs trendline from 11:15 UTC
Failure to hold the 0.5562 NY low exposes the 0.5560 round number and resumes the lower-low sequence
RSI(14) holding above 16 while price retests 0.5562 would show momentum not confirming new lows
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing at the lows · RSI 26 · price 0.55642
Lower highs and lows from the Asian high; NY low tested three times.
USD follow-through from Tuesday's hot CPI kept NZD offered after it slipped from the 0.5614 Asian high through London, and the break of the 0.5582 london low at the NY open sped the slide to 0.5562. Price is basing at the 0.5562 session low, which has held three times. RSI(14) at 25.7 is oversold but higher than the 16.1 low, while the 0.5569 bounce high and the descending trendline cap the market below the ema20 at 0.5574.
Support: 0.55621, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55742, 0.55823
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 bounce high and the descending trendline would print the first higher high since London
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5574 shifts the read toward a retracement of the London-NY fib leg, with the 0.5582 london low the next level overhead
Close below the 0.5562 session low and 0.5560 psych extends the lower-low chain
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and Business NZ PMI (Thu 21:30 UTC) are the next scheduled drivers
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 25 · price 0.55637
Lower highs and lower lows since Asian range break; small base at session low.
London broke the 0.5603 Asian range low and NY extended through the 0.5582 london low to a 0.5562 session low, as post-CPI USD demand carried through. Price is holding a 0.5562–0.5569 base below the ema20 at 0.5575. RSI(14) is oversold at 24.7 and ATR is up to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55621, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55752, 0.55823
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5569 bounce high would print a higher low off the session low
Failure to hold the 0.5562 session low exposes the 0.5560 round number
ema20 at 0.5575 sits with the 38.2% of the lower-high fib; a retrace stalling there keeps lower highs intact
Close back above the 0.5582 london low invalidates the NY extension read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; NY extended below 0.5600 pivot.
NZD/USD has slid about 52 pips from the 0.5614 Asian high. London broke the 0.5600 pivot and NY extended the drop to a 0.5562 session low, with USD still bid on the hot CPI print and near-full December Fed hike pricing. Price is retesting the session low with RSI(14) at 24.7, oversold but off its 16.1 trough, and ATR has widened to 4.3 pips while both EMAs slope lower overhead.
Support: 0.55621, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55764, 0.55826
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5562 session low exposes 0.5560 psych, the digest's next support
Recovery through the 0.5569 bounce high and ema20 at 0.5576 would break the lower-high line
Any retrace of the Asia-NY drop that stalls near the London low at 0.5583, close to its 38.2% level, keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range low broken.
London open broke the Asian range low near 0.5599. NY then extended the lower-high, lower-low chain to a session low at 0.5562 as the post-CPI USD bid persisted. RSI(14) is 26.8 after an extreme 16.1, and the bounce is capped at the 0.5569 bounce high, with price below ema20 (0.5578) and ema50.
Support: 0.55621, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55686, 0.55777, 0.55826
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5562 session low exposes the 0.5560 psych level
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5578 would interrupt the lower-highs sequence
Reclaiming the 0.5583 london low and the 0.5590 fib 38.2% would negate the trend read
ATR expanding to 4.3 pips; Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next NZD risk
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 28 · price 0.55678
Lower highs from the 0.5614 Asian high; 0.5582 base broken in NY.
USD strength after Tuesday's hot CPI kept NZD heavy. The pair faded from the 0.5614 Asian high through London, then NY broke the 0.5582 double base and printed a 0.5562 session low. RSI(14) is at 27.8, recovering from 16.1, and the bounce sits below ema20 at 0.5579.
Support: 0.55621, 0.5554
Resistance: 0.55789, 0.55823, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5582 broken low, which is also the 38.2% fib, would ease the breakdown read
A reclaim of the 0.5596 lower high is needed to break the London-NY lower-high chain
Loss of the 0.5562 session low exposes 0.5554 and the 19-month low zone at 0.5527-0.5540
ATR rising from 3.3 to 4.3 pips shows NY range expansion into the lows
Lower highs from the Asian double cap at 0.5614; Asian range broken lower in London.
The Asian range topped twice near 0.5614 before London broke it lower. The hot-CPI USD bid then carried price about 52 pips to a 0.5562 session low in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) is oversold at 21.2 after a 16.1 trough, ATR has expanded to 4.3 pips, and price trades below the ema20 (0.5580) and ema50 (0.5590), with a lower high at 0.5596 under descending resistance.
Support: 0.55621, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55902, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.5580, where the 38.2% fib of the Asian high to session low leg sits, would ease the downside momentum
Failure to hold the 0.5562 session low exposes the 0.5560 round number and extends the downtrend
Recovery through the ema50 at 0.5590 and the 0.5596 lower high breaks the descending resistance sequence
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Thursday's Fed speakers and NZ PMI are the next catalysts
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 16 · price 0.55638
Lower highs below Asian range; session low at 0.5562.
London broke below the 0.5603–0.5614 Asian range, and the first hour of NY extended the slide through the 0.5583 london low to a 0.5562 session low. The lower-highs chain from the Asian high is intact as the hot US CPI keeps USD bid. RSI(14) at 16.1 is deeply oversold and ATR is widening to 4.2 pips, with price below both EMAs (ema20 0.5582, ema50 0.5591).
Support: 0.55621, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55826, 0.55956
What it said to watch
Hold below the 0.5562 session low exposes 0.5560 psych, the next support cited in the digest
M15 close back above 0.5583 london low / ema20 would break the intraday lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5596 lower high would invalidate the NY downtrend read
Fed speakers and US jobless claims Thu 12 Nov are the next USD catalysts that could shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; London-NY broke the 0.5582 london low.
Lower highs have stepped down since the 0.5613 Asian high. The first hour of NY broke the 0.5582 london low, set twice during London, and pressed to a 0.5567 session low as the post-CPI USD bid extends. RSI(14) at 20.3 is deeply oversold, ATR has expanded to 3.9 pips, and price sits below both EMAs with the ema50 at 0.5592.
Support: 0.55671, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55825, 0.55924, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5582 london low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5567 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5560 round number
Recovery through the ema50 at 0.5592 and the lower highs trendline would neutralise the intraday downtrend
0.5600 pivot as the upper reference for any rebound
Fed speakers from Thu 14:00 UTC (Hammack) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 22 · price 0.55715
Lower highs from 0.5613; London-NY break of 0.5582 base.
The sell-off from the 0.5613 Asian high ran through London and the first hour of NY, giving way at yesterday's 0.5586 low and the 0.5582 broken base for a 0.5569 session low as the post-CPI USD bid persists. RSI(14) is oversold at 21.7 with ATR at 3.9 pips, and price sits below the ema20 at 0.5585 and the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 0.55694, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55823, 0.55851, 0.55956
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5582 broken base would mark the break as failing
A break below the 0.5569 session low exposes the 0.5560 round number, which the NZD digest flags as support
Recovery above the 0.5596 lower high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Thu US claims and Fedspeak are the next USD catalysts
14:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 24 · price 0.55728
Lower highs/lower lows; Asian range and London low broken, new session lows in early NY.
NZDUSD extended the London-session selloff into the NY open on lingering post-CPI USD demand. It broke the 0.5583 london low and yesterday's 0.5586 low, with lower highs off the 0.5614 Asian high defining a descending trendline. RSI(14) is oversold at 24.3, ATR(14) is a modest 3.7 pips, and price sits below the ema20 (0.55865) and ema50.
Support: 0.5570, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5583, 0.55865, 0.55956
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5570 session low exposes the 0.5560 round number
Recovery back above the 0.5583 london low would reframe the break as a false break
M15 close above the 0.5596 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
US jobless claims and Fedspeak on Thu 12 Nov could materially shift USD tone
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into NY open · RSI 25 · price 0.55764
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; prior-day and London lows broken.
NZDUSD broke below the Asian range in London. Around the NY open it slipped through the 0.5583 London low and the prior-day low to a 0.5575 session low, extending the lower-high chain from the 0.5613 Asia peak, with the dollar still bid on hot US CPI. Price is below a falling ema20 (0.5588) and ema50 (0.5595), and RSI(14) at 25.1 is oversold; ATR(14) is 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.55746, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55826, 0.55877, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5583 london low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5575 session low exposes the next support near 0.5560
A recovery through the 0.5596 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Fedspeak and US yields after CPI remain the main driver of NY-session USD moves
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 26 · price 0.55758
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5614 Asian high; London low broken in the first hour of NY.
London broke below the Asian range and has built a lower-high, lower-low chain from the 0.5614 Asian high, with USD still bid after the hot US CPI. The first hour of NY cut through the 0.5582 London low to a 0.5575 session low. RSI(14) is oversold at 25.6, ATR(14) is ticking up to 3.7 pips, and price sits below a falling EMA20 (0.5589) and an EMA50 (0.5596) that capped the 11:15 UTC lower high.
Support: 0.55752, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55823, 0.55889, 0.55957
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5582 London low would turn the break into a false break
An M15 close above the lower-high trendline and EMA20 near 0.5589 ends the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5575 session low opens the next support at 0.5560
No NZD or USD data in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs since Asia, double low forming at 0.5582.
Hot US CPI started the slide, and London broke below the Asian range (0.5600–0.5614). Since then the pair has printed lower highs beneath a falling ema20 at 0.5590, and the latest leg is retesting the morning double low at 0.5582 as NY approaches. The retest came with RSI(14) at 33, against 23 at the first low, a bullish divergence, while ATR at 3.3 pips shows tight ranges.
Support: 0.55823, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55902, 0.55956, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5582 double low confirms another lower low and opens next support at 0.5560
A close back above the 0.5596 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5600 psych level in play
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 0.5590 keeps the lower-high line intact
USD remains bid on Fed hike pricing; Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak could extend the move
Asian range broken lower in London; price retesting the London low.
Pressure from the hot US CPI carried into London. Price broke below the Asian range low near 0.5600 and through yesterday's post-CPI low at 0.5586, bottoming at the 0.5583 London low before the bounce stalled at a 0.5596 lower high. Into the NY open price is back on the London low, below a falling ema20 at 0.5591 and under a descending highs line, with RSI(14) at 34.5, not oversold, and ATR(14) at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.55826, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55909, 0.55956, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 round number
Recovery through the ema20 and the 0.5596 lower high breaks the descending highs line and the intraday downtrend read
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych puts price back inside the Asian range
No high-impact US data in the next 8h, so rates and Fedspeak steer USD into Thursday's claims
Lower-high/lower-low chain; retesting London session low.
London broke below the 0.5605–0.5614 Asian range and through yesterday's post-CPI low at 0.5586. It bottomed at the 0.5583 session low, and the bounce met rejection at a 0.5596 lower high under the falling trendline as hot US CPI keeps USD bid. Price is retesting the session low into the London-NY transition, below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 34.7 versus 24.3 at the earlier low.
Support: 0.55826, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55915, 0.55956, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.5560 sup
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.55915 and a close above the 0.5596 lower high would break the falling trendline sequence
0.5600 psych, near the ema50 at 0.55975, is the level that would put price back toward the Asian range
No high-impact US data today, so yields steer USD into NY. Thursday's jobless claims and Fed speakers could shift this read
Lower highs below both EMAs after the London break of the Asian range.
Hot US CPI pushed NZDUSD below 0.5600 yesterday. The London drop then broke the Asian range low near 0.5605 and set a 0.55826 London low, with RSI(14) down to 23. The bounce stalled at a 0.55956 lower high under the ema20 and ema50, and price is pressing the 0.55855 swing low into the NY open with ATR(14) compressed at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.55855, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.55922, 0.55956, 0.5598
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55826 london low extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence
Swing low at 0.55855 holding again would set a higher low and stall the lower highs trendline
M15 close above the 0.55956 lower high and the ema50 at 0.5598 neutralises the downtrend read
No scheduled data in the next 8h. Thursday jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next USD catalysts.
London broke below the Asian range, lower low then lower high under the EMAs.
London broke the 0.5603–0.5614 Asian range lower and ran to a 0.55826 session low, under the post-CPI low, as USD stays bid after the hot CPI print. The rebound off oversold RSI(14) near 23 stalled at 0.55956, a lower high above the ema20. Price is back testing the 0.55855 swing low with RSI at 38 late in London.
Support: 0.55855, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.55927, 0.55956, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55956 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 0.55826 session low extends the lower-low sequence
0.5600 pivot overhead: a reclaim alongside the ema50 at 0.55984 would neutralise the London breakdown
No high-impact data before the NY open; USD moves track Treasury yields after the CPI repricing
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 0.55873
Lower-high/lower-low chain; London broke the Asian range and the post-CPI low.
London unwound the Asia rebound from 0.5614 after the hot US CPI selloff and broke yesterday's 0.55864 post-CPI low. It printed a london low at 0.55826 as RSI(14) bottomed near 23. The late-London bounce was rejected at 0.55956, a lower high just above the ema20, and price sits back below both EMAs with ATR at 3.6 pips heading into the NY open.
Support: 0.55826, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55932, 0.55956, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.55826 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 round number
A close above the 0.55956 lower high breaks the sequence and puts the ema50/0.5600 pivot in play
No high-impact data today; Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next USD catalysts
London broke the Asian low at 0.5603 and extended yesterday's hot-CPI USD bid to a 0.5583 session low, undercutting the 0.5586 cpi low as RSI(14) dipped to 23. The bounce retraced about 40% of the London selloff, stalled at 0.5596 under the downtrend line and slipped back below the ema20 and ema50. ATR(14) is 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.5594, 0.55994, 0.5603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 ema50 and the London downtrend line breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5583 session low confirms a lower low, with 0.5560 the next support flagged
Reclaiming the 0.5603 Asian low would put price back inside the overnight range
NZ card spending due today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high 0.5614; London broke the Asian range and swept prior low.
London broke below the Asian range and swept yesterday's post-CPI prior low at 0.5586 to a session low of 0.5583, with RSI(14) bottoming near 23 before recovering to 47. The bounce has reclaimed the ema20 at 0.5594 and is testing the 38.2% retrace of the asian high-to-session low drop, still below the ema50 at 0.5600 as a firm USD after hot US CPI keeps the pair heavy.
Support: 0.55944, 0.55864, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.55998, 0.56066, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema20 and the 0.5586 prior low puts the 0.5583 session low back in play
Failure to hold 0.5583 confirms a lower-low in the London downtrend
Reclaim of the ema50 near 0.5600 and the 61.8% retrace at 0.5602 challenges the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5607 swing high
NY open liquidity could extend or reverse the London bounce; asian high at 0.5614 caps the day's range
Lower highs from 0.5614 Asian high; London broke the Asian range low and swept the CPI-day low before a bounce.
London extended the hot-US-CPI selloff, breaking the Asian range low near 0.5600 and sweeping yesterday's 0.5586 cpi low to a 0.5583 session low before buyers stepped in. RSI(14) has recovered from 23 to 45 and price is now testing the 0.5594 ema20, which sits on the 38.2% of the 0.5613–0.5583 London drop fib.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.55944, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5600 (ema50, round number) would break the lower-high sequence from the Asian high
Rejection at the ema20 and a return below the 0.5586 cpi low reopens the 0.5583 session low
NZ October card spending today could move the kiwi; no US data until Thu jobless claims
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off a fresh low · RSI 37 · price 0.55911
Lower highs since Asia; London broke the Asian low and swept the CPI low.
The hot US CPI drop resumed in London. Price lost the Asian range near 0.5600 and dipped through the cpi low at 0.55864 to a london low of 0.55826, then bounced back above it. RSI(14) has recovered to 37.4 from a 23.1 trough, but price still sits below the ema20 at 0.55945 and the ema50 near 0.5600, under a lower-high trendline.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.55945, 0.56003, 0.56139
What it said to watch
Close back above the ema20 at 0.55945, which also aligns with the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high trendline read
Failure to hold the cpi low at 0.55864, then the london low at 0.55826, extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 0.5600 and the ema50 shifts focus back to the asian high at 0.56139
NZ card spending today is the main NZD risk; no high-impact US data before Thursday's claims and Fedspeak
Lower highs from Asia high; London broke Asian range and swept cpi low.
London extended the hot-US-CPI selloff. It broke below the Asian range and dipped under yesterday's 0.55864 cpi low to a 0.55826 session low, then RSI(14) recovered from 23 to 35. Price is holding below the ema20 at 0.55949, which lines up with the 38.2% of the Asia-high-to-session-low drop fib, with ATR at 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.55949, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Close back above the ema20 at 0.55949 and the 0.5600 psych level (ema50 0.56007) would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.55826 session low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low
NZ card spending due today could shift this read; no high-impact US data today
Lower highs from the 0.5614 Asian high, London broke below 0.5600.
London extended the dollar-led slide that followed the hot US CPI. Price fell from the 0.5614 Asian high on a lower-highs line, cleared the 0.5600 psych level, then swept yesterday's 0.5586 prior low to a 0.5583 session low before a small bounce. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5595) and ema50, and RSI(14) has lifted to 34.7 from a 23.1 oversold low. ATR is 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55826
Resistance: 0.55954, 0.5600, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.5595 and the lower-highs line would signal the London leg is stalling
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych is needed before the 0.5614 asian high comes back into view
Failure to hold the 0.5583 session low after the sweep of the 0.5586 prior low would extend the lower-low chain
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC and Thursday Fedspeak are the next scheduled risks for the pair
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 24 · price 0.55858
Lower highs through London; Asian range and post-CPI low broken.
After hot US CPI dropped the pair to a 0.5586 cpi low yesterday, the Asian range (0.5603–0.5614) has given way in London. Price has broken below the 0.5600 psych level and the cpi low to a fresh session low at 0.5583, with RSI(14) oversold at 24.3 and price below a falling ema20 at 0.5596.
Support: 0.55826, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55864, 0.55961, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Holding back above the 0.5586 cpi low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5560 support flagged in the digest
Recovery above the ema20 (0.5596) and the 0.5600 psych level reopens the Asian range and the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian high-to-session low drop
Lower highs from Asia high, Asian range low broken, new window low.
London broke below the Asian range and has slid about 28 pips from the 0.5614 Asian high to a 0.5585 session low. That takes out yesterday's post-CPI low at 0.5586 as the hot US CPI print keeps USD firm. RSI(14) sits oversold at 23, and price is below ema20 (0.5597) with lower highs along the London trendline.
Support: 0.55845, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55864, 0.55972, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.5586 post-CPI low keeps the lower-low sequence intact; a quick reclaim would mark it a false break
A break of the 0.5585 session low exposes the next support at 0.5560
An M15 close above ema20 (0.5597) and the London lower-highs trendline undercuts the downtrend read, with 0.5600 psych just above
NZ card spending due today can move the kiwi; no high-impact US data before Thursday's claims and Fedspeak
Lower highs since Asia, Asian low broken in London.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.5603 and has stepped down in lower highs to test yesterday's post-CPI low at 0.5586. USD is still firm after the hot CPI beat. RSI(14) is oversold at 25.4, price sits under both EMAs with ema20 at 0.5598 sloping lower, and ATR is only 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55908, 0.55985, 0.5603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5586 cpi low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5591 minor high and then ema20 at 0.5598 would stall the London leg; the 38.2% of the london leg fib sits near 0.5597
Return above the 0.5603 asian low would negate the range break
No high-impact US data today; Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
Lower highs since the Asian high; Asian range broken lower at London open.
London extended the post-CPI USD bid, slipping out of the Asian range below 0.5600 and pressing the 0.5586 cpi low. Price sits under a falling ema20 (0.5600) and ema50 (0.5604), with lower highs stepping down from the 0.5614 asian high. RSI(14) at 27.7 is oversold and ATR is 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55996, 0.56036, 0.56139
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5586 cpi low opens the path toward the 0.5560 round number
A reclaim of 0.5600 / ema20 negates the Asian range break, with ema50 at 0.5604 next
A move back above the 0.5614 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence
No high-impact US data today. Fedspeak headlines and US yields near 5% are the main intraday risk
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into the CPI low · RSI 27 · price 0.5589
London broke the Asian range low; lower-high chain since 05:00 UTC.
The post-CPI USD bid resumed at London open. The pair broke below the 0.5600 Asian low and has printed successive lower highs along the London highs line, now pressing the 0.5586 CPI low. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.6, price is below both EMAs and ATR has edged up to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55975, 0.5600, 0.56139
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5586 CPI low exposes the 0.5560 key support flagged in the macro read
A close back above the 0.5597 lower high and the 0.5600 asian low negates the London range break
A rally back to the 0.5614 asia high would void the lower-high chain
No high-impact US data today; Fedspeak headlines on 25bp vs 50bp could jolt the dollar
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through early London · RSI 33 · price 0.55953
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs from the 0.5614 Asian high.
Hot US CPI drove the pair to a 0.55864 cpi low. The Asia recovery stalled twice at the 0.5614 asian high, and early London has since broken below the Asian range on lower highs to a 0.55936 session low. Price is below the ema20 (0.56019) and ema50 (0.56048) after a bearish ema cross, with RSI(14) at 33 after a brief dip under 30 and ATR at 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.55936, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56019, 0.56048, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema50 at 0.56048 (Asian range floor) negates the London range break
Failure to hold the 0.55936 session low exposes the 0.55864 cpi low
Lower-highs trendline intact while price stays below the 0.5607 pivot
No high-impact US data today; Thursday's 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak slate are the next USD catalysts
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 35 · price 0.55971
Asian range broken lower; London lower-high chain from 0.5613.
A double top at the 0.5613–0.5614 Asian high gave way to a London range break below 0.5600, extending the hot-US-CPI selloff with lower highs. Price is basing just above the 0.5594 London low, below the ema20 (0.5603) and ema50 (0.5605). RSI(14) has rebounded to 35 from a brief dip under 30.
Support: 0.55936, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56026, 0.56132
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.5603 breaks the London lower-high chain
Loss of the 0.5594 london low exposes the 0.5586 post-cpi low
Retracement capped below the 0.5613 asian high keeps the double top intact
No US data today; Fedspeak and USD yields remain the swing driver for the London-NY transition
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs from the 0.5614 Asian high.
London open broke the 0.5604–0.5614 Asian range and slipped below 0.5600 psych as the hot US CPI keeps USD firm. Price is under a falling ema20 at 0.56032, with RSI(14) oversold at 29.5 and ATR(14) near 3 pips. The 0.5591 rollover low and the 0.55864 cpi low sit just below.
Support: 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56032, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych and the ema20 at 0.56032 would mark the Asian range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5591 rollover low exposes the 0.55864 cpi low from Tuesday's NY session
Asian high at 0.5614 caps the lower-high trendline. A move through it would end the London leg down
No NZD/USD events in the next 8h. Thu US jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next USD inputs
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, London extending lower · RSI 32 · price 0.55961
Lower highs from Asian high, Asian range broken to downside.
Hot US CPI drove a ~40-pip slide to the 0.5586 cpi low yesterday. Asia stalled at the 0.5614 asian high, printing lower highs. London has since broken below the Asian range and the 0.5600 psych level to a fresh 0.5596 session low, with price under both EMAs after an ema20/ema50 cross and RSI(14) at 31.6, near but not in oversold.
Support: 0.5596, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56041, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych and the 0.5604 ema20 would neutralise the London break
Failure to hold the 0.5596 session low exposes the 0.5591 gap low from the rollover open, then the 0.5586 cpi low
50% fib of the drop from the asian high sits near 0.5605, alongside ema50; supply capping there keeps lower highs intact
ATR(14) at 3.2 pips; no scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h, so US yields remain the driver
08:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.55972
Asian range broken to the downside at London open, 0.5600 handle lost.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.5603 and lost 0.5600, extending a lower-highs sequence from the 0.5614 Asian high as the hot US CPI keeps USD firm. Price trades under the ema20 (0.5605) and ema50 with RSI(14) at 35. The London low at 0.5596 is the first test, with the Nov 10 base near 0.5591 and the CPI low at 0.5586 below.
Support: 0.55964, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5603, 0.5605, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5603 asian low returns price to the Asian range and negates the break; the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian high to London low move sits at 0.5603–0.5605 with the ema20
Failure to hold the 0.5596 london low exposes the 0.5591 nov 10 base and the 0.5586 cpi low
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5614 asian high would end the intraday downtrend read
ATR(14) ticking up to 3.2 pips from 2.9 as London volatility builds
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; Thu US claims, Fedspeak and NZ PMI (21:30 UTC) are the next event risk
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 33 · price 0.5598
Asian range low and 0.5600 broken, lower-high chain intact.
Ahead of the London open, price has slipped below the 0.5600 psych handle and the Asian range low, extending a run of lower highs off the 0.5614 Asian high. RSI(14) sits at 33.4, not yet oversold, and EMA20 (0.5606) has crossed under EMA50 with price below both. Pressure from the hot US CPI print persists, and the post-CPI low at 0.5586 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych level would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5586 post-cpi low extends the lower-low chain
Close above ema20 at 0.5606 and the lower highs line neutralises the intraday downtrend read; asian high 0.5614 is the range top
ATR at 3.1 pips is compressed; a London-session expansion would set the next swing
07:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.56011
Double top at 0.5613 broken, testing 0.5600.
The post-CPI recovery stalled twice at 0.5613 in Asia, forming a double top. Descending highs have since pushed price below the ema20 and ema50 into the 0.5600 psych level, which also sits at the 50% fib of the 0.5586–0.5614 rally. RSI(14) is 39 and ATR only 3 pips heading into the London open.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56064, 0.56135
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5600 psych opens the rollover low at 0.5591, with the cpi low at 0.5586 beyond.
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5606 and the descending highs line would ease the double top read.
A move above 0.5614 voids the double top.
London open could expand the 3-pip ATR off the current compression.
07:16 UTC
Downtrend after CPI, Asia rebound faded · RSI 43 · price 0.56036
Lower high at Asian high, price below both EMAs testing 0.5603.
Hot US CPI dropped NZDUSD from the 0.5629 pre-CPI level to a 0.5586 CPI low in NY. The Asia rebound was rejected twice at the 0.5613–0.5614 Asian high, roughly 64% of the CPI drop fib, forming a small double top. Price is now back below the ema20 (0.56069) and EMA50, pressing the 0.5603 swing low just above the 0.5600 round number, with RSI(14) at 42.5 and ATR 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56029, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56069, 0.56139, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5603 swing low and 0.5600 round number extends the post-CPI downtrend toward the 0.5586 CPI low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.5607 puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 0.5614 Asian high voids the double top read and exposes 0.5629 pre-CPI
London open in ~45 min typically expands the 3-pip ATR
Asian range 0.5603–0.5614 capped by a double top; price pressing the range base into London open.
Hot US CPI drove the pair to a 0.5586 CPI low, and the NY-to-Asia recovery stalled at a 0.5614 Asian high where two tops formed. Price has slipped below the flat ema20 (0.5607) into London open and is testing the 0.5603 asian low, about the 38.2% CPI-low retrace, with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR at 3 pips.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56073, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5586 CPI low and resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5607 and clearing the 0.5614 asian high would void the double top
London open range expansion beyond the ~3-pip ATR decides which side of the Asian range breaks
US jobless claims and Fedspeak from Thu 13:30 UTC could reset the USD leg of this read
Double top at Asian high, neckline 0.5604 giving way.
Late Asia, just ahead of London open, price slipped off a double top at the 0.5613 Asian high. It is probing the 0.5603 Asian low and the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI recovery from 0.5586, below the flat ema20/50 at 0.56075 with RSI(14) at 41.4. Yesterday's hot US CPI drove the NY slide, and the 0.5600 round number sits just beneath, alongside the 50% retrace.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.56139
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5603 Asian low confirms the double top and opens the 0.5600 round number / 50% fib
Recovery above the ema20/50 at 0.56075 neutralises the double top and puts the 0.5613 Asian high back in play
A loss of 0.5600 exposes the post-CPI low at 0.5586
ATR at 3 pips shows a compressed Asian range, so London open is the likely test of 0.5600
06:31 UTC
Recovery stalling, drifting lower into Asia low · RSI 45 · price 0.5605
Asia range 0.5605–0.5614 with a lower high at the top; price testing the range floor.
Ahead of London open, NZDUSD is pressing the Asia low at 0.5605. Asia printed a high at 0.5614 and a lower high at 0.5613, leaving a small double top, and price sits under a flat EMA20/EMA50 near 0.5608. That rebound from the hot US CPI low at 0.5586 is losing traction, and ATR(14) at 3 pips shows compressed pre-London conditions.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 Asia low completes the double top and exposes the 0.5600 round number, which aligns with the 50% fib of the cpi low-asia high move
A reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5608, followed by a break of the 0.5614 Asia high, voids the double top read
Failure to hold 0.5600 puts the 0.5586 CPI low back in focus
NZ card spending due today could jolt the Asia range
06:16 UTC
Range after CPI selloff, flat EMAs · RSI 48 · price 0.56072
Asia range 0.5605–0.5614 under 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop.
Hot US CPI knocked NZDUSD from 0.5629 to the 0.5586 CPI low during NY hours. Asia then retraced to the 61.8% fib, where twin tops at the 0.5613–0.5614 asia high capped the move. Late in the Asia session price sits just under the flat ema20 (0.5608) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR at 3 pips, still inside the 0.5605–0.5614 range ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56082, 0.56139
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 pullback low completes the double top and exposes 0.5600 psych
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5586 cpi low back in play
M15 close above the 0.5614 asia high clears the 61.8% fib and breaks the range
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5608 returns price to mid-range
NZ card spending today could materially shift this read
Tight late-Asia range 0.5605–0.5614 below the 61.8% retracement of the CPI drop.
NZD has retraced most of the hot US CPI drop from the 0.5586 cpi low. The Asian high at 0.5614 coincides with the 61.8% fib of that move and saw a rejection twice, at 0.56139 and 0.56132. Late in the Asia session, price is wedged between the flat ema20 (0.56083) and ema50 (0.56078), with RSI(14) at 50.6 and ATR(14) compressed to 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5614 asian high and 61.8% fib reopens the 0.5629 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot, then the 0.5586 cpi low
NZ card spending today could break the compressed Asian range
London open expansion from a 3-pip ATR base would set the session direction
Asia range 0.5599–0.5614, lower high under session high.
Hot US CPI knocked the pair 40 pips to a 0.5586 post-cpi low. Asia has since recovered about two-thirds of that drop, but a second probe of the 0.5614 session high stalled at 0.5613 and was rejected. Price now sits between flat EMAs (just under ema20, just over ema50) with RSI(14) at 50 and ATR(14) at 3 pips. It is holding above the 0.5605 swing low and the rising Asia trendline, shallow on the cpi rebound fib.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5614 session high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.5625 pre-cpi low in view
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low and the rising Asia trendline exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot
Loss of 0.5600 reopens the 0.5586 post-cpi low and a deeper cpi rebound fib retracement
London open in ~1h typically sets the session range; NZ card spending due today could shift the read
05:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through Asia · RSI 59 · price 0.56122
HL chain retesting Asian high at the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop.
Hot US CPI knocked NZDUSD to 0.5586 in the NY session. Late Asia has rebuilt it to the 61.8% retrace near 0.5613, now retesting the Asian high at 0.5614 after a higher swing low at 0.5605. Price holds above the ema20 (0.5608), with RSI at 58.5 and ATR compressing to 2.9 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56084, 0.56046, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5614 Asian high / 61.8% retrace opens the pre-CPI low at 0.5625
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot
London open is due within roughly 1.5h; ATR at 2.9 pips points to range expansion risk from the current tight Asian range
NZ card spending, due today, could shift the read if it shows clear contraction
05:16 UTC
Recovering from the post-CPI low, higher lows · RSI 62 · price 0.56125
Higher-low chain since 0.5586; late Asia testing the session high.
Late in the Asia session, NZDUSD is retesting the 0.5614 Asian high after an Asia HL at 0.5605, with price above the ema20 at 0.5608 and RSI(14) at 62.2. The grind off the 0.5586 low has recovered about 60% of the hot-US-CPI drop from the 0.5629 pre-cpi level, and the rollover gap has already been filled.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5605, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5614, 0.5629
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5614 asian high opens the path to the 0.5629 pre-cpi level
Loss of the 0.5605 asia hl and the rising line breaks the higher-low chain, exposing 0.5600 psych
NZ card spending today and the London open could expand range well beyond the 2.9-pip ATR
05:02 UTC
Recovering within an Asia range after the CPI selloff · RSI 60 · price 0.56113
Higher lows since the 0.5586 CPI low; price pressing the Asia high near the 61.8% retrace.
The hot US CPI print knocked NZDUSD from 0.5629 to a 0.5586 low during NY hours. Late in the Asia session, price has retraced about 61.8% of that CPI drop and is testing the 0.56139 asia high. It sits above a flat, converged ema20/ema50 pair near 0.5607 with RSI(14) at 60.2, while ATR(14) of 3 pips shows a compressed tape.
Support: 0.56075, 0.56046, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.56291
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.56139 asia high clears the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop and opens the 0.5621 area, then the 0.5629 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.56046 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.5600 round number back in focus
The London open is the first test of the Asian range; the 22:00 UTC rollover spike to 0.5591 was a thin-liquidity print, not structure
NZ card spending today and Thursday's US claims and Fed speakers could shift the USD-driven read
Asian range 0.5591–0.5614, rejected at 61.8% retracement.
The hot US CPI print knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5629 pre-CPI high to a 0.5586 CPI low. Asia session retraced to the 61.8% of that drop, where supply capped the 0.5614 Asian high; price now sits near the 50% at 0.5608. EMA(20) and EMA(50) are flat at 0.5607, RSI(14) is neutral at 51 and ATR(14) has compressed to 2.9 pips late in Asia.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5614 asian high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 0.5629 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 asia pullback low exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot, then the 0.5586 cpi low
ATR at 2.9 pips shows a compressed Asian range into London open; a break of either edge would end the consolidation read
NZ card spending due today could materially shift this read
Asia rally capped at the 61.8% retrace; higher lows from 0.5599 still intact.
The hot US CPI print drove NZD from the pre-CPI 0.5629 area to a 0.5586 CPI low. The Asia session retraced to 0.5614, where supply capped price at the 61.8% fib. The pullback since has held the 0.5605 pullback low and the rising Asia trendline, but price sits just under the flat EMA cluster at 0.5607, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR(14) compressed to 3 pips.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56072, 0.56139, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema cluster at 0.5607 and then the 0.5614 asia high reopens the pre-cpi 0.5629 zone
Break below the 0.5605 pullback low and the Asia trendline exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot
Loss of 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5586 cpi low back in focus
NZ Oct card spending later Wed could materially shift this read
Asia range 0.5605–0.5614 after a rejection at the Asian high.
The hot US CPI print knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5629 pre-CPI high to a 0.5586 CPI low during NY hours. The rebound filled the rollover gap and peaked at the 0.5614 Asian high, where it was rejected. Late in the Asia session, price sits just below the flat ema20/ema50 pair near 0.5607 and is holding the 0.5605 pullback low. RSI(14) has cooled from 65.7 to 48 and ATR(14) is a compressed 3 pips.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56072, 0.56139, 0.56291
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5605 pullback low exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot, the 38.2% retrace of the post-CPI rebound fib
Close back above ema20 at 0.5607 and the 0.5614 Asian high re-opens the 0.5629 pre-CPI high
Loss of 0.5600 puts the 0.5586 CPI low back in play
London open could break the 3-pip ATR compression
NZ card spending today could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Post-CPI rebound stalling below Asian high · RSI 47 · price 0.56062
Lower high at 0.5614, testing swing low below EMAs.
The overnight recovery from the hot-US-CPI cpi low at 0.5586 met rejection at the 0.5614 asian high early in the Asia session. Price is back below the flat ema20/ema50 at 0.56073 and is pressing the 0.5604 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the rebound. RSI(14) has eased to 47 and ATR(14) is a quiet 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.56036, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56073, 0.56139
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5604 swing low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 50% fib of the rebound
Break back below 0.5600 psych reopens the cpi low at 0.5586
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5607 and then the 0.5614 asian high negates the lower-high read
NZ Oct card spending (Wed) could shift this read on any soft print
Higher-low chain from 0.5591 broken; price back under the EMA cluster.
Hot US CPI drove yesterday's slide to 0.5586. The Asia rebound off the 0.5591 open gap low then met rejection at the 0.5614 Asia high. The last close at 0.5606 sits under the ema20 (0.56075) and the flat ema50, breaking the 0.5609 higher low and the Asia rising line, with RSI(14) back to 49 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.56036, 0.5600, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.56139, 0.56213
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.5604 swing low, near the 38.2% of the post-CPI rebound fib, keeps the Asia structure intact
Failure there exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot and the 0.5591 gap low
Close back above the 0.5614 Asia high reopens the 0.5621 post-cpi hi (CPI bar high)
London open in roughly 3h typically tests the Asian range; low ATR suggests a range break is pending
Higher-low chain off the post-CPI low, stalling under Asia high.
The post-CPI rebound from the 0.5586 low has carried through the Asia session on a higher-low chain, topping at the 0.5614 Asia high before stalling. Price holds above the ema20, which has just crossed above the ema50, both near 0.5608. RSI(14) has eased to 57 from 66 and ATR is compressed at 3.1 pips, with the 0.5600 psych pivot below.
Support: 0.56076, 0.56036, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.56213
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 swing low breaks the higher-low line and the rebound structure
Acceptance above the 0.5614 Asia high opens the 0.5621 cpi high
Loss of the 0.5600 psych pivot returns focus to the 0.5586 post-CPI low
London open could expand range out of the 3.1-pip ATR compression
03:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 64 · price 0.56132
HH/HL chain off the rollover gap, testing session high.
Hot US CPI knocked NZDUSD from 0.5629 to 0.5586 in NY hours. Asia has since retraced into the 50–61.8% of that CPI drop fib, with a rising Asia trendline under higher lows at 0.5604 and 0.5609. Price is pressing the 0.5614 session high, holding above the ema20 and ema50 after a fresh ema20/50 cross. RSI(14) is 64 and ATR(14) is 3 pips, so bars are compressed.
Support: 0.56092, 0.56074, 0.56036
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.5625, 0.5633
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 swing low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and the Asia trendline, exposing ema20 and the 0.5604 asian low
Acceptance above the 0.5614 session high and the 61.8% level at 0.5615 opens the 0.5625 pre-cpi base, then the 0.5633 pre-cpi high
NZ Oct card spending (Wed) and Thu US claims/Fed speakers could reset the CPI-driven read
Asia HH/HL chain capped just under the session high.
Hot US CPI took NZDUSD from the 0.5629 cpi bar high to 0.5586 in NY. Asia has since filled the rollover gap, printed higher lows and reclaimed the 0.5600 psych level. Price sits just under the 0.5613 session high and above the ema50 at 0.5607, with RSI(14) easing from 65.7 and ATR compressed to 3 pips.
Support: 0.56092, 0.56071, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56291
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5609 swing low and the asia higher lows trendline ends the HH/HL chain
An M15 close above the 0.5613 session high opens the path to the 0.5629 cpi bar high
Losing the 0.5600 psych pivot puts the 0.5586 post-CPI low back in view
NZ Oct card spending today could shift the Asia session read
Higher lows through Asia, testing 61.8% of CPI drop.
NZD/USD has clawed back from the 0.5586 low left by the hot US CPI print, with the Asia session printing higher lows and breaking the 0.5604–0.5608 range to a 0.5613 session high, right at the 61.8% retracement of the CPI drop. RSI(14) has eased to 61 from 66 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.1 pips, with price holding just above the ema cluster at 0.5606–0.5607.
Support: 0.5607, 0.56036, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56213
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5613 session high and 61.8% level opens the 0.5621 post-CPI high
Loss of the ema cluster and the 0.5604 Asian low breaks the higher-lows chain and puts the 0.5600 round number back in play
NZ October card spending due today could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through Asia · RSI 66 · price 0.56123
HH/HL chain off post-CPI low, testing cpi pivot.
Asia session is extending the climb off the 0.5586 low left by yesterday's hot US CPI, with a clean higher-low chain along the Asia trendline. Price is now just above the 38.2% fib of the Waller-CPI drop and pressing the cpi pivot at 0.5613–0.5615. RSI(14) is 65.7 and ATR has compressed to 3.1 pips, with the ema20 (0.5606), the ema50 (0.56068) and the 0.56036 swing low stacked just below.
Support: 0.5606, 0.56036, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.5618, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 fib 50% exposes the 0.5625 pre-cpi low
Break below the 0.56036 swing low and the Asia trendline ends the higher-low chain, with 0.5600 psych next
NZ card spending (Wed) and further hawkish Fed speak after CPI could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, new session high at 0.5612.
Mid-Asia session, the post-CPI rebound from 0.5586 has extended to a new Asian high at 0.5612. Higher lows sit along a higher-low line from 0.5599. Price is above both the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is 64.8 and ATR is compressed at 3.2 pips, after hot US CPI drove yesterday's slide; the post-CPI high at 0.5621 is the next cap and psych 0.5600 is the floor.
Support: 0.56066, 0.56036, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.56213
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 post-CPI high extends the rebound structure
Loss of the 0.5604 asian low breaks the higher-low line and the HL chain
Close back below psych 0.5600 reopens the post-CPI lows
NZ October card spending (Wed) could shift this read
02:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in Asia · RSI 62 · price 0.56111
HL chain off gap low, testing session high.
Hot US CPI drove a 43-pip NY slide to 0.5586. Asia has since printed higher lows off the 0.5591 gap low, including an Asia HL at 0.5604, and is pressing a new session high at 0.5611, just under the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib near 0.5613. Price holds above a rising EMA20 and the flat EMA50 at 0.5606, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR(14) at 3.3 pips, so ranges stay tight.
Support: 0.56064, 0.56036, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.56114, 0.56213, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5604 Asia HL breaks the higher-low chain and the HL line
Acceptance above 0.5613 (61.8% of the CPI drop fib) opens the post-CPI high at 0.5621, then the pre-CPI low at 0.5625
Loss of the EMA50 at 0.5606 puts the 0.5591 gap low back in focus
Fed-speak headlines remain the swing factor; Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next scheduled NZD catalyst
01:46 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 59 · price 0.5608
Higher lows off the CPI low, testing Asia high below 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print drove NZDUSD from 0.5629 to the 0.5586 low. The pair has since recovered toward the 38.2 fib of the 0.5650–0.5586 drop, and the rollover gap to 0.5591 is fully filled. In the Asia session price is grinding up in a tight range above the ema20 (0.5604) and a flat ema50 (0.5606), pressing the 0.5608 Asia high, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.56063, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56083, 0.56105, 0.5618
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5610 38.2 fib opens the 50% fib at 0.5618
Loss of the ema50 and a close back below the 0.5600 psych handle invalidates the recovery read
Break below 0.5586 cpi low resumes the post-CPI lower-low sequence
NZ October card spending due Wednesday could shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5586, tight Asian range under 0.5608.
The hot US CPI print knocked NZD/USD roughly 40 pips to the 0.5586 cpi low during NY hours. The recovery since has printed higher lows, and price now sits in a 0.5599–0.5608 Asian range, just above a rising ema20 at 0.5604 and on a flat ema50. RSI(14) is neutral at 55.6 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.3 pips; the rollover gap down to 0.5591 was filled within the hour.
Support: 0.56037, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56078, 0.56213
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 asia high opens the 0.5621 post-cpi hi, where the CPI breakdown bar topped
Loss of the 0.5600 round number puts the recovery fib 50% near 0.5597 and the 0.5586 cpi low back in play
ema20 at 0.5604 is the first intraday reference for whether the higher-low sequence holds
NZ October card spending due today could materially shift this read
Tight early-Asia range 0.5604–0.5608 above 0.5600.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) knocked NZDUSD from 0.5629 to a 0.5586 cpi low. Late-NY buying then reclaimed the 0.5600 psych level, and a thin-liquidity rollover dip to 0.5591 was bought straight back. Early Asia is now compressed between ema20 at 0.5603 and ema50 at 0.5606, with the 0.5608 session high capping at the 50% retrace of the CPI drop; RSI 53 is neutral and ATR at 3.3 pips is contracting.
Support: 0.56034, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56062, 0.56078, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 session high and 50% retrace opens the 0.5613 post-cpi high
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5586 cpi low
Repeated closes below ema50 at 0.5606 keep the recovery capped inside the Asian range
NZ October card spending (Wed) could break the compression; a weak print revives the 0.5600 test
The grind back from the hot US CPI low at 0.5586 has stalled at the 0.5608 Asia session high, the 50% retracement of the CPI drop. Price sits between a rising ema20 (0.5603) and a flat ema50 (0.5606), with NZD still heavy near the 0.5600 round number. The 22:00 UTC rollover dip to 0.5591 was fully reclaimed, and ATR at 3.4 pips reflects a tight early-Asia range.
Support: 0.56032, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56063, 0.56078, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 session high and ema50 opens 0.5613, the 61.8% fib and post-CPI bounce high
Loss of ema20 and the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5586 cpi low back in focus
NZ October card spending (Wed) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the CPI low, tight Asia range under the 0.5608 high.
The hot US CPI print drove NZD down to the 0.5586 cpi low. The rebound has since stalled in the Asia session against the 0.5608 asia high, with the close just under a flat ema50 at 0.5606 and RSI(14) at 55.8. The rollover gap to 0.5591 filled quickly, leaving the 0.5600 round number and ema20 at 0.5603 underneath, with price still shy of the 38.2% retrace (0.5611) of the Waller-CPI drop.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56078, 0.56133
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5613 swing high clears the 38.2% retrace of the Waller-CPI drop
Loss of the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5586 cpi low
Repeated failure at the 0.5608 asia high keeps the range read intact
NZ October card spending (Wed) could shift this read
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC knocked NZD/USD from 0.5629 to 0.5586, and the bounce has now reached the 50% fib of that drop at 0.5608, the early-Asia session high, where price is pinned under the ema50 at 0.5606. The day-roll gap to 0.5591 filled within three bars, and the ema20 at 0.5603, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, sits just above the 0.5600 round number as the nearest floor. ATR is compressed at 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.56027, 0.5600, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.56063, 0.56078, 0.5612
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 session high and the 50% fib opens the 0.5612 cpi shelf from the post-CPI consolidation
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5591 gap low back in play
NZ October card spending (Wed) is the next local catalyst; Fed speaker headlines can jolt thin Asia liquidity
Rebound from 0.5586 cpi low testing 50% retrace and ema50.
Hot US CPI dragged NZDUSD from the 0.5629 pre-cpi high to the 0.5586 cpi low. The pair has since built higher lows, and the rollover gap to 0.5591 was filled within two bars. Early Asia session sees price at a 0.5608 asia high, sitting on the 50% retrace of the CPI drop and just above a flat ema50, with RSI 57 and ATR 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.56023, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56078, 0.56128, 0.56291
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5613 61.8% fib opens the 0.5629 pre-cpi high
Loss of ema20 near 0.5602 and 0.5600 exposes the 0.5591 rollover low
Break of 0.5586 cpi low resumes the post-CPI downleg
NZ October card spending due Wed could materially shift this read
Hot US CPI broke the 0.5625 pre-CPI low and ran to a 0.5586 NY low. Price has since climbed back to the 50% of that drop near 0.5607, pressing the ema50 from below with the ema20 at 0.5602 underneath. The thin rollover gap to the 0.5591 gap low filled within three bars as the Asia session opens. RSI(14) is at 55.9 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.56019, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56063, 0.56133, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.5606 puts the 0.5613 post-cpi high, the 61.8% of the cpi drop fib, in play
Above 0.5613, the 0.5625 pre-cpi low is the next cap
Close back below the ema20 at 0.5602 reopens the 0.5591 gap low and the 0.5586 ny low
NZ October card spending (Wed) could shift the 0.5600 read as Asia trades