Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, recovery underway · RSI 57 · price 0.5763
Basing after 4-month decline off Feb highs.
NZDUSD has spent four months grinding lower from the 0.5994 February peak into the mid-June 0.5630 swing low, with price holding under a falling EMA(50). The last two weeks show a base building and a recovery back to 0.5763 — roughly the 38.2% retracement of the whole downswing — helped by the RBNZ's hawkish hike to 2.50% and a soft USD sitting at three-week lows. The 0.5794 three-week high and the 0.5825 100-day SMA above cap the bounce for now.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5663, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 0.5794 then 0.5825 would confirm the recovery extending beyond a retracement
- Failure to hold 0.5700 pivot reopens the 0.5663 june low
- US CPI Tue Jul 14 is the key near-term risk to this recovery read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off base · RSI 55 · price 0.5763
Base carved late June, higher lows building.
NZDUSD trended lower from the May highs near 0.5994 into a late-June base around 0.5630, and has spent the last two weeks recovering — the RBNZ's hawkish 25bp hike to 2.50% underpinning the Kiwi. Price has reclaimed EMA20 but remains capped below a falling EMA50, with the current leg stalling near the 0.5794 three-week high and the 38.2% retrace of the May–June drop. Higher lows off the base keep the recovery intact for now.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day sma
- Loss of 0.5700 pivot would question the higher-lows sequence
- US CPI Jul 14 could materially shift the USD side of this read