Multi-month downtrend from the early-May peak near 0.5994 bottomed at 0.5631 in late June, after which three weeks of recovery reclaimed EMA20 and lifted price to the 0.5793 swing high. The bounce is stalling below EMA50 and the 0.5825 SMA cluster, a roughly 38.2% retrace of the May-June leg. The hawkish RBNZ hike underpins NZD, but the near-term cap sits at overhead resistance pending Tuesday's US CPI and Warsh testimony.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5631
Resistance: 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Daily close above 0.5825 sma cluster invalidates the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.5700 psych reopens the 0.5631 swing low
US CPI + Warsh testimony Tuesday is a key USD swing risk for this read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off June low · RSI 58 · price 0.57572
Lower highs since May, higher lows building since mid-June.
Multi-month downtrend from the May highs bottomed near 0.5630 in mid-June; the last two weeks have printed higher lows and reclaimed EMA20, but price is still capped below the EMA50 (~0.578) and the 0.5825 SMA cluster flagged as overhead resistance. The recovery leans on the hawkish RBNZ rate-support story following last week's 25bp hike, though gains have stalled just under the 0.5763 recent high. Price sits at roughly the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5994–0.5630 down-swing.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5763, 0.5800, 0.5825
What it said to watch
D1 close above the 0.5825 sma cluster would confirm a shift from the June-low recovery to a broader base
Failure to hold 0.5700 psych reopens the 0.5630 june low
US CPI + Warsh testimony Tuesday is the key USD swing risk that could invalidate this recovery read