Higher highs stalled near 0.5794, now retracing below EMA20.
NZD ran a fourth straight day higher into three-week highs near 0.5793 on the hawkish RBNZ story, but twin attempts at 0.5786-0.5794 were rejected and price has since slipped back under EMA20. The pair based at 0.5744 during the NY session and is now grinding around 0.5754 with RSI(14) mid-range. This week's up-leg from Monday's 0.5673 low remains intact but momentum has stalled ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5744, 0.5733
Resistance: 0.5765, 0.5786, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA20 near 0.5765 needed to re-engage the 0.5786-0.5794 highs
Failure to hold 0.5744 swing low opens the 0.5733 (50% fib) area
US CPI Tuesday 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony are the near-term USD swing factor
Pullback from week highs after double-top rejection.
The rally from Monday's ~0.5673 open ran into the 0.5789 area twice this week and was rejected, leaving a double-top look as RBNZ-hawkish support met a soft USD. Price has since slipped below EMA20 and EMA50, drifting back toward the 38.2% retrace of the week's impulse near 0.5747. US CPI Tuesday is the swing factor for the next USD leg.
Support: 0.5744, 0.5720
Resistance: 0.5789, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5789 reopens the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5744 exposes the 0.5720 swing low
US CPI Tuesday could break the three-week USD range and shift this read
22:03 UTC
Pullback from week high, momentum down · RSI 40 · price 0.57481
Lower highs, price below EMA20/50.
NZD/USD ran to a week high at 0.57885 on hawkish RBNZ pricing before fading through the NY session into a lower-high sequence, now trading below EMA(20) and EMA(50) at 0.5748 — sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse off 0.5675. RSI(14) has cooled toward 40 as the pullback deepens, with 0.5770 prior support now capping. NZIER Business Confidence (~22:00 UTC) and US CPI Tuesday are the near-term catalysts.
Support: 0.5744, 0.57337
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.57885
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5770 prior support negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.5744 day low opens the 50% fib at 0.57337
US CPI Tuesday plus Warsh testimony is the main USD driver for this read
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 0.57481
Pullback from week high, below EMAs.
Kiwi rallied off Monday's 0.5675 low to three-week highs near 0.5792 on the hawkish RBNZ hike, but a matching peak at 0.5788 mid-week left a double-top look and price has since rolled below EMA20. Thin post-weekend trade has drifted back to the session low at 0.5740 with RSI(14) softening under 45. Upside from here is USD-dependent into Tuesday's US CPI.
Support: 0.57399, 0.5720
Resistance: 0.57885, 0.57928
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5788 negates the pullback and reopens 0.5792
Loss of 0.5740 confirms a lower low toward 0.5720
US CPI Tuesday and Warsh testimony are the main USD drivers for the next leg
NZD extended its RBNZ-hawkish rally for a fourth session toward the 0.5790 week high before rejecting below the 0.5825 SMA cluster flagged as overhead. Price has since faded through EMA20 and EMA50 into the NY session, holding just above the 0.57439 session low with RSI cooling to the low-40s after failing to confirm the second push higher. Prior high near 0.5770 now caps, and the weekly open at 0.5756 sits just above.
Support: 0.57439, 0.5756, 0.5730
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.57928, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.57439 session low confirms a deeper pullback toward the 0.5730 swing low
Reclaim of 0.5770 prior high reopens the 0.5790 week high
US CPI and Warsh testimony Tuesday are the key USD swing risk into next session
Kiwi rallied four straight sessions toward 0.5790 on the hawkish RBNZ tightening story, then rolled over into Friday's close and has slipped back below the H1 EMA20 to 0.5748. RSI(14) has cooled toward 43 as the week's high near 0.5793 capped the advance and buyers thinned. The 0.5825 SMA cluster flagged overhead remains the harder ceiling.
Support: 0.57439, 0.5719
Resistance: 0.57665, 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.57665 (EMA20) would re-engage the week's uptrend
Failure to hold 0.57439 session low opens a deeper pullback toward 0.5719
US CPI + Warsh testimony Tuesday is the key USD swing risk for this read
NZD/USD ran a four-day rally off 0.5670 toward the 0.5800 handle on the hawkish RBNZ story, but twin peaks near 0.5786-0.5792 formed a double top and capped the advance. Price gapped slightly lower on the reopen and has since slipped back below EMA20 into the NY session, with RSI(14) unwinding from overbought toward the mid-40s. The pullback is finding early demand around the 0.5748 day low.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5720
Resistance: 0.5786, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5786 week high reopens the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold the 0.5748 day low exposes the 0.5720 swing low
US CPI and Warsh testimony Tuesday are the key USD swing risk for this read
Capped twice near 0.5790, rolling back to mid-range.
NZD/USD extended its hawkish-RBNZ rally toward 0.5790 this week but the level has capped two attempts, leaving a double-top look near the week high. Price has since rolled back to 0.5750, slipping under the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) easing into the low 40s. The 0.5825 SMA cluster remains the heavier overhead cap flagged into Tuesday's US CPI.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5732
Resistance: 0.57885, 0.5790, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5790 needed to negate the double-top read
Loss of 0.5748 session low opens 0.5732
US CPI Tuesday + Warsh testimony are the key USD swing risk
Higher highs stalling below 0.5790, pulling back into range.
NZD/USD ran a four-day rally off Monday's 0.5675 open toward 0.5790 on the hawkish RBNZ story, but the last push stalled short of 0.5800 and price has since slipped back below EMA(20). The pullback to 0.5752 has RSI(14) easing into the low 40s, with the week high near 0.5790 and the 0.5825 SMA cluster capping overhead. Demand has so far held around 0.5750.
Support: 0.5752, 0.5750, 0.5730
Resistance: 0.5768, 0.5790, 0.5825
What it said to watch
US CPI Tuesday 12:30 UTC + Warsh testimony are the key USD swing risks for this read
NZIER Business Confidence tonight 22:00 UTC could reinforce the RBNZ narrative
H1 close below 0.5752 confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's higher-low structure
NZD rallied a fourth straight day toward the 0.5793 week high on the hawkish RBNZ story before rolling over; price now sits below EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s. The move stalled at 0.5793 and has retraced to test the 0.5750 session low, cutting back through the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse. US CPI Tuesday and Warsh testimony are the key USD swing risk into the next sessions.
Support: 0.57501, 0.57415, 0.56811
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.57928
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5750 confirms a deeper retrace toward 0.5742
Reclaim of the 0.5770 pivot re-opens the 0.5793 week high
US CPI + Warsh testimony Tuesday could materially shift this read
The rally off Monday's 0.5672 low, driven by the hawkish RBNZ, stalled at the 0.5794 three-week high with a matching peak near 0.5788 forming a double top. Since that rejection price has rolled over through the NY session, slipping back under the EMA20 (~0.5770) and testing the 0.5752 session low as a firmer USD safe-haven bid weighs. RSI(14) has cooled into the low-40s, confirming momentum has left the topside.
Support: 0.5752, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.5788, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5752 session low exposes the 0.5725 prior reject zone
Reclaim of the EMA20 near 0.5770 would negate the pullback read
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC and US-Iran headlines could shift USD safe-haven flows
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 43 · price 0.57535
Correction off 3wk high, lower highs into 0.5754.
The week opened Monday near 0.5682 and rallied on the hawkish RBNZ hold, tagging a three-week high at 0.5789 before rolling over. Since the NY session yesterday price has ground back below EMA20 to 0.5754 as a USD safe-haven bid on US-Iran headlines capped the Kiwi. The 0.5770 shelf that held as support has now flipped to overhead resistance, with the recent low at 0.5752 being probed on the close.
Support: 0.5752, 0.5730, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.5789
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.5752 exposes 0.5730 swing low and confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of 0.5770 reopens the 0.5789 week high
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC today could shift this read
Pullback from 3-week high within this week's up-leg.
Kiwi climbed steadily since Monday's open on the hawkish RBNZ hold, tagging a three-week high at 0.5794 before rolling over. Price has since slipped back under EMA(20) toward 0.5752 as a fresh USD safe-haven bid on US-Iran strikes capped the advance. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s, tracking the pullback while price still holds above EMA(50).
Support: 0.5752, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5786, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5752 exposes the 0.5725 rejection zone
Reclaim of 0.5786/0.5794 needed to resume the up-leg
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC and US-Iran headlines could shift this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pullback in play · RSI 43 · price 0.57556
Rally rejected at range top, faded to weekly open.
Kiwi pushed to 0.57885 into Monday's NY session but was rejected near the three-week high and faded back to the weekly open around 0.5756, giving back most of the impulse. RSI sits mid-40s and price has slipped below both EMA20 and EMA50 on the pullback. The 0.5750-0.5789 band still frames the week as USD safe-haven flows on US-Iran headlines cap the hawkish-RBNZ bid.
Support: 0.5750, 0.57474
Resistance: 0.57885, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5750 weekly open confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5700
Reclaim of 0.57885 session high needed to reopen the 0.5794 three-week high
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC could shift the read
Pullback from three-week high, consolidating above prior support.
The Kiwi carried a ~1% weekly gain into a three-week high at 0.5794 on the RBNZ's hawkish 25bp hike, before a US-Iran safe-haven USD bid capped it and dragged price back toward the EMA20 near 0.5767. Since Monday's open the pair has consolidated in a 0.5750–0.5789 band, with RSI(14) cycling back to the midline as the recent 0.5786 push failed to reclaim the week high. Demand has repeatedly stepped in around 0.5750 while supply caps into the 0.5789–0.5794 zone.
Support: 0.5767, 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5789, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5750 exposes the 0.5725 prior rejection and 0.5700
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC today could shift this read
NZDUSD has trended higher since Monday's 0.5670 low, with the hawkish RBNZ hike fuelling a run to the 0.5794 three-week high. Since then price has consolidated below that cap, giving back gains toward the 0.5770 pivot as a USD safe-haven bid on US-Iran headlines limits upside. RSI(14) has cooled back to the mid-50s and price is hugging EMA(20).
Support: 0.5770, 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5750 support confirms a lower low toward 0.5725
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC could shift this read
NZDUSD has climbed steadily since Monday's 0.5756 open, riding the hawkish-RBNZ story that drove this week's ~1% gain, but the 0.5789-0.5794 three-week high has capped the latest push. Price is now consolidating just above the 0.5770 initial support with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s and holding above EMA20 and EMA50. A firmer USD on US-Iran safe-haven flows is keeping the Kiwi pinned below the range top.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5756, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5789, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5770 exposes the 0.5756 weekly open then 0.5750
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC today could shift this read
US-Iran headlines driving USD safe-haven demand
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum easing · RSI 54 · price 0.57718
Higher highs/lows, capped near range top.
NZDUSD has trended up since Monday's open, extending the RBNZ hawkish-hike leg to a week high at 0.57885 before easing back to 0.57718. Attempts into the 0.57885/0.5794 three-week high have been rejected as a firmer safe-haven USD caps gains, but pullbacks are holding above the 0.5770 shelf. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 54 after the retreat, cooling from the highs without breaking structure.
Support: 0.5770, 0.57505
Resistance: 0.57885, 0.5794
What it said to watch
Close above 0.5794 3wk high opens the path to 0.5825
Failure to hold 0.5770 support exposes 0.5700
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC could shift the read
US-Iran headlines driving USD safe-haven demand
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 58 · price 0.5778
Higher highs, consolidating sub-0.5800.
NZD/USD rode Wednesday's hawkish RBNZ 25bp hike to a three-week high near 0.5794 before drifting sideways as fresh safe-haven USD demand tied to US-Iran headlines capped the advance. Price is back above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) after the post-gap dip found buyers at 0.5748, with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s. The 0.5794 high has capped this week and 0.5788 has repeatedly held into the NY session.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5788, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to 0.5825
Failure to hold 0.5770 exposes the 0.5750/0.5725 pivot
NZIER Business Confidence today 22:00 UTC could shift this read
Consolidation below three-week high after RBNZ-driven rally.
NZD/USD rallied to a three-week high near 0.5794 after Wednesday's hawkish RBNZ 25bp hike, and has since consolidated in a 0.5770-0.5790 band as a safe-haven USD bid from US-Iran escalation caps upside. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s, showing drift rather than fresh impulse. The 0.5794 high has repeatedly capped attempts this week.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5754, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path toward the 0.5825 100d sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5770 exposes the 0.5754 prior low then 0.5725 pivot
NZIER Business Confidence today 22:00 UTC could shift this read
US-Iran headlines driving USD safe-haven demand
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 62 · price 0.57865
Higher highs into range under 0.5794.
Kiwi holds a firm bid after Wednesday's hawkish RBNZ hike lifted it to a three-week high near 0.5794, and price has climbed back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) into the NY session. Momentum is capped just under the 0.5788 session high as a USD safe-haven bid from renewed US-Iran headlines offsets the rate tailwind. RSI(14) sits in the low 60s, consistent with the grind higher rather than an overbought stall.
Support: 0.5773, 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5788, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5750 confirms a lower-low back toward the 0.5725 pivot
NZIER Business Confidence (22:00 UTC) could shift this read
NZDUSD has ground higher since Monday's open, running from the 0.5670 base to a 0.5794 three-week high on Wednesday's hawkish RBNZ hike. A weekend gap lower to 0.5756 was quickly recovered, with price back above EMA20/EMA50 and RSI cycling in the mid-50s to low-60s. The 0.5794 high has capped this week's advance and remains the level to clear.
Support: 0.5774, 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day sma cluster
Loss of 0.5774 session low reopens 0.5750 and the 0.5725 pivot
NZIER Business Confidence (22:00 UTC) and US-Iran headlines could shift this read
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, capped near range top · RSI 62 · price 0.57823
Higher lows into prior swing high.
Kiwi has clawed back to retest the week's 0.5794 three-week high after a mid-week hawkish RBNZ hike drove the initial impulse off 0.5670. This week's open dipped to 0.5750 before rebuilding higher lows through the NY session, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) mid-60s. Two attempts near 0.5794 have so far stalled, keeping the 0.5773–0.5794 band the near-term battleground.
Support: 0.5773, 0.5750, 0.5768
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Loss of 0.5750 wk support breaks the higher-low sequence
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, recovering off gap low · RSI 62 · price 0.57823
Higher lows, testing week highs.
NZDUSD reopened this week below Friday's close with a weekend gap, dipped to 0.57474 then recovered through the NY session back toward the week highs near 0.5786. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the upper half, but the 0.5794 three-week high has capped progress and the broader Mid-East safe-haven USD bid is limiting follow-through.
Support: 0.5770, 0.57474, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst — could reshape this read
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Loss of 0.5770 support puts the 0.57474 gap low back in focus
Kiwi ran to a three-week high near 0.5794 on the RBNZ's hawkish hike earlier in the week, then trimmed toward 0.5750 as Mid-East safe-haven flows lifted the USD. Price has recovered through the NY session back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), pressing the 0.5786/0.5794 week-high band with RSI(14) cycling into the low 60s.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5750, 0.57474
Resistance: 0.57928, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5770 near support reopens 0.5750
US CPI (Tue 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after pullback · RSI 64 · price 0.57812
Higher lows into range near week high.
NZD/USD carved a steady uptrend from Monday's 0.5670 base to a week high at 0.5786, with pullbacks holding EMA(20) each session. After a dip to 0.5750 the pair rebased through NY hours and RSI(14) is cycling in the low-60s. Kiwi remains capped below the 0.5794 three-week high as a Mid-East safe-haven USD bid caps the topside.
Support: 0.57505, 0.5735
Resistance: 0.57864, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5786 opens path to the 0.5794 three-week high
Loss of 0.5750 breaks the higher-low sequence
US June CPI (Tue 12:30 UTC) is the week's key catalyst for USD flows
NZD gapped lower into this week's open near 0.5756 but has since carved a series of higher lows and is pressing the session high at 0.5786, back toward last week's 0.5794 three-week high set on the hawkish RBNZ hike. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s. The recovery is fighting a firm USD safe-haven bid, so the 0.5794/0.5825 cluster remains the cap on this bounce.
Support: 0.57564, 0.57483, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.57864, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC (~26h) is the primary driver risk for this pair
Fed's Waller 16:30 UTC (~6h) could shift the USD tone
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Loss of 0.5756 weekly open re-exposes the 0.5748 week low
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into range top · RSI 62 · price 0.57809
Higher highs/higher lows since Thursday, retesting week high.
Kiwi has climbed steadily off the 0.5670 area since Thursday, with the hawkish RBNZ hike this week the structural driver behind the ~1% move to the 0.5794 three-week high. A small weekend gap lower to the 0.5750 post-gap low was quickly absorbed, and buyers pushed back to 0.57864, holding above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low 60s.
Support: 0.5773, 0.5765, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.57864, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 three-week high opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5750 post-gap low negates this week's higher-low sequence
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 64 · price 0.57818
Higher highs into weekly resistance.
NZD has trended up through the week off the post-RBNZ hawkish hike, running from the 0.5670 base to a three-week high near 0.5794. Monday reopened with a weekend gap down to 0.5750 but the NY-into-London push has since recovered it, with price back above EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s. The 0.5794 high has capped the advance so far, keeping the pair beneath the 0.5825 moving-average cluster.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 ma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5770 swing low reopens the 0.5750 gap low
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC could shift this read
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 62 · price 0.57818
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday.
NZD has held its post-RBNZ hawkish-hike gains, grinding higher since Monday's open and pushing back to a session high near 0.5786 into the current NY hours. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-65 band on each pullback; the week high at 0.5786 and the three-week high at 0.5794 are the caps overhead. Buyers stepped in repeatedly around the 0.5770 support band during the retrace.
Support: 0.5770, 0.57505, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.57864, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day sma ceiling
Failure to hold the 0.5770 support band exposes 0.5750/0.5705
NZIER Business Confidence (Jul 13 22:00 UTC) is the next NZ catalyst and could shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 57 · price 0.57739
Higher highs into 0.5793, now consolidating.
Kiwi rode the RBNZ's hawkish 25bp hike to a 3-week high at 0.5793 last week before stalling; price has consolidated above EMA20 since Monday's session open, holding a 0.5748 low. The 0.5793/0.5825 100-day SMA cluster remains the overhead cap, with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-50s as upside momentum fades.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5793 reopens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Loss of 0.5748 monday low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5725
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NZDUSD climbed steadily through last week on the hawkish RBNZ hike, peaking at the 0.5794 3-week high before easing into a tight consolidation. A weekend gap left Monday's session opening near 0.5756; price has since ground back above EMA(20) toward 0.5774 with RSI cycling in the low 50s. The 0.5794 cap remains untested this week while dips have held above 0.5750.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 / 100d sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5750 exposes 0.5725 swing low
NZIER Business Confidence Mon 22:00 UTC could shift the RBNZ tightening read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's dominant USD catalyst
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 48 · price 0.5761
Pullback below week high, lower highs forming.
Kiwi ran to a 3-week high at 0.5794 mid-week on the hawkish RBNZ hike, then rejected and eased back to ~0.5760, now coiling around EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s and price is carving lower highs off the 0.5794 peak, capped by the 0.5770 pivot. The move stalled well short of the 0.5825 / 100-day SMA cap flagged as the key overhead cluster.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.5770 reopens the 0.5794 3wk high
Failure to hold 0.5748 swing low confirms a lower low toward 0.5725
NZIER Business Confidence today 22:00 UTC could validate or challenge the RBNZ read
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term risk to this range
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 48 · price 0.5761
Higher highs stalling below week high, now consolidating.
Kiwi ran up through the week to a 3-week high at 0.5793 on the hawkish RBNZ hike, then stalled and gapped lower into the new week's open. Price is now consolidating in a 0.5748–0.5771 band, hovering around the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 48 after the impulse cooled. The week's higher-low trendline is still intact but the 0.577 cluster has capped every attempt back up.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5730
Resistance: 0.5771, 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Close above 0.5793 reopens the path toward the 0.5825 100-day sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5748 session low confirms a lower low and breaks the higher-low trendline
NZIER Business Confidence Mon 22:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 0.57557
Pullback from week high, consolidating below 0.5770.
NZD ran from Monday's 0.5670 base to a week high near 0.5794 on the hawkish RBNZ hike, but the advance stalled below the 0.5825 100-day cluster and has since drifted back under the 0.5770 pivot. Price now sits between EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the mid-40s, and a small weekend gap left the open around 0.5756. Rejection at 0.5794 has capped this week's peak while demand near 0.5750 has held so far.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5770 reopens the 0.5794 week high
Failure to hold 0.5750 exposes 0.5725 support
NZIER Business Confidence 22:00 UTC could shift the RBNZ tightening read
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 0.57557
Pullback from week high, holding above EMA50.
Kiwi ran to 3-week highs near 0.5790 after the RBNZ's hawkish 25bp hike, but momentum has faded and price has slipped back under the EMA20 into the new week. Rejection at the 0.5790 week high stalled the advance, and after a modest weekend gap NZDUSD is consolidating in the mid-0.575s, still above EMA50. RSI(14) has cooled back toward 46, tracking the loss of upside pace.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5762, 0.5790, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5750 swing low confirms a lower low and opens 0.5725 support
Reclaim above the 0.5790 week high reopens the 0.5825 psych cap
NZIER Business Confidence (Mon 22:00 UTC) could validate or challenge the RBNZ tightening read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 48 · price 0.57601
Pullback from week high, consolidating below 0.5794.
Kiwi ran to a 3-week high near 0.5793 mid-week on the hawkish RBNZ hike and firm NZ PMI, then faded back toward 0.576 as the rally stalled below 0.5825. A weekend gap lower opened Monday's Asia session under 0.5757, and price is now pinned just below EMA(20) with RSI cycling around the midline. Former 0.5770 support now caps intraday attempts.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5770 reopens the path back to the 0.5794 week high
Failure to hold 0.5748 confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5725
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC and Fed Warsh testimony could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 0.57601
Consolidation below 3-week high.
The kiwi ran from the 0.5686 base to a 0.5793 peak through the week on the hawkish RBNZ hike, but the advance stalled below 0.5794 and has since traded sideways. A weekend gap lower opened this session near 0.5756, price probed 0.575 support then recovered to sit just under a flattening EMio(20) around 0.576. RSI(14) has slipped back toward the midline as upside momentum fades into consolidation.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5747, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5771, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.575 session low risks a return toward 0.5725
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NZD rallied off last week's 0.5670 base to a 3-week high at 0.5793 on the hawkish RBNZ hike, but the level capped the advance and price has since drifted into a 0.575-0.577 range. After a small weekend gap lower, the pair sits just under EMA(20) while holding above EMA(50), with RSI(14) mid-range as the upside impulse loses steam. The 0.5793 high remains the pivot bulls need to reclaim.
Support: 0.5747, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5793 reopens the 0.5825 100-day cap
Failure to hold 0.5747 monday low confirms a lower-low toward 0.5725
NZIER Business Confidence (Mon 22:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 12:30 UTC) could reset this read
NZDUSD trended up from Monday's 0.5670 low to a 3-week high at 0.5793 late last week on the hawkish RBNZ hike, then gapped slightly lower over the weekend and is consolidating around 0.5757, just under the EMA(20). Rejection at the 0.5770 session high and stalling below the 0.5825/100-day SMA cluster show upside momentum easing while RSI cycles back toward mid-range. The week's ~1% gain still holds above the EMA(50).
Support: 0.5748, 0.5730, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5770 reopens the path to the 0.5793 week high
Failure to hold 0.5748 session low exposes 0.5730 then 0.5700
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs into week high 0.5794, now consolidating below.
Kiwi trended higher all week on the hawkish RBNZ hike, peaking at the 0.5794 three-week high before easing back. A small weekend gap opened near 0.5756 and price has since chopped 0.5748–0.5771, now hovering at 0.5763 just under EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s/50 as the impulse from the 0.5670 base loses pace.
Support: 0.57479, 0.57408, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57706, 0.57928
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.57706 recent high reopens the path to the 0.5794 week high
Loss of 0.57479 session low exposes the 0.57408 swing low and 0.5700 weekly sup
NZIER Business Confidence Mon 22:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could reshape this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing after 3wk high · RSI 51 · price 0.57627
Higher highs into 0.5793, now pulling back.
Kiwi trended higher all week on the hawkish RBNZ story, peaking near the 0.5793 three-week high before fading. Price opened the new week with a small downside gap, dipped to 0.5750 and recovered to hover around 0.576, sitting just under the H1 EMor(20) while holding above EMA(50). RSI(14) has cooled back to the mid-50s as the pullback unfolds.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5770, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5770 bounce high reopens the 0.5794 three-week high
Failure to hold the 0.5750 session low exposes 0.5700 wk support
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst and could reset this read
02:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling off weekly high · RSI 53 · price 0.57676
Higher highs into 0.5793, now consolidating below.
Kiwi ran up three straight days on the hawkish RBNZ hike, tagging a three-week high at 0.5793 before fading to ~0.5775 as a firmer USD capped the move. Monday's fresh week opened with a small gap lower and dipped to 0.5750 before recovering to sit just above EMA20, keeping RSI(14) mid-range. The 0.5773 session high has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5763, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5773, 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5793 three-week high opens the path toward 0.5825 100-day sma
Failure to hold 0.5750 monday low exposes 0.5700 psych level
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst and could reset this read
Kiwi has trended higher all week off Monday's 0.5672 low, driven by the hawkish RBNZ hike, peaking at the 0.5794 three-week high before fading. The weekend reopen gapped lower to the 0.5748 area but buyers recovered it through the Asia session, leaving price back above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s. The retrace from 0.5794 remains shallow, holding above the week's rising higher-lows.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5735, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5779, 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close below 0.5748 weekend low would break the higher-low structure
Reclaim of 0.5779/0.5794 reopens the path toward the 0.5825 100d sma
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC and NZIER confidence Mon 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 0.57487
Pullback off 3wk high, weekend gap down.
Kiwi ran from the 0.5670 area to a three-week high at 0.5794 across the week on the hawkish RBNZ hike, but has since faded and opened with a weekend gap down through 0.5763. Price now sits below EMA20 near the 38–50% retracement of that impulse, with RSI(14) cooled into the mid-40s as momentum eases. Today's session low at 0.5748 is the near-term marker while the unfilled gap at 0.5763 caps the recovery.
Support: 0.57474, 0.57315, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5763, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5763 fills the gap and re-opens the 0.5794 wk high
Loss of 0.5748 session low exposes the 0.5730 fib 50% zone
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst for this pair
NZIER Business Confidence Mon 22:00 UTC could shift the RBNZ read
Kiwi rallied three straight sessions on the hawkish RBNZ story to a three-week high near 0.5793 before stalling and rounding over late week. Price gapped lower into this week's open and now sits around 0.5748, roughly a 38-50% retrace of the week's impulse and back under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI slipping below 50. The 0.5763 pre-gap shelf has capped the initial bounce.
Support: 0.5731, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5763, 0.5793
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5763 pre-gap high would reopen the 0.5793 3wk high
Loss of the 0.5731 50% fib exposes 0.5700 weekly low
NZIER Business Confidence Mon 22:00 UTC and US CPI Tue could reset this read
00:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 0.57572
Rally to week high, now consolidating below it.
Kiwi built three days of gains off Monday's 0.5698 open after the hawkish RBNZ hike, peaking at the 0.5794 week high before fading into 0.5773/0.5757. Price has slipped back under EMA(20) but holds above EMA(50), with RSI(14) cooling toward the mid-40s as the rally stalls. A minor weekend gap opened near 0.5756 and the pair is drifting inside the upper half of the week's range.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5730, 0.5698
Resistance: 0.5773, 0.5794
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5773 reopens the 0.5794 week high
Failure to hold 0.5750 exposes 0.5730 prior low
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Kiwi ran higher through the week on the hawkish RBNZ hike, tagging a three-week high at 0.5793 before fading. Price has since slipped under EMA(20) and gapped lower into this week's open, now consolidating near 0.5757 while holding above EMA(50). RSI(14) has cooled back toward neutral as the impulse loses pace.
Support: 0.5747, 0.57408, 0.5740
Resistance: 0.5775, 0.5793
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5775 reopens the 0.5793 week high
Failure to hold 0.5747 confirms a deeper pullback toward 0.57408
NZIER Business Confidence (Mon 22:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 12:30 UTC) could reset this read