Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
Monday's rally peaked at 0.5650 early in Tuesday's London session. The hotter US CPI print then broke the move during NY hours, and the post-CPI decline has carved a clean lower-high sequence: the 0.5614 Wed high, then Thursday's 0.5568 lower high, which stalled beneath EMA(50) at 0.5567. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.5553 after Thursday's NY session pressed to a 0.5539 week low just above the 0.5527 YTD low, while RSI(14) at 30.7 holds higher lows against that lower price low, a mild bullish divergence with ATR steady near 7.5 pips.
Support: 0.55386, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55526, 0.55678, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 0.5553 would ease the downside pressure
H1 close above the 0.5568 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5539 week low puts the 0.5527 ytd low in play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection along the lower-highs trendline keeps the post-CPI decline intact
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5650 peak; week low just printed.
Monday's rally peaked at 0.5650 into Tuesday's London open and reversed on the hot US CPI print, and the Tuesday-Thursday selloff has since carved lower highs at 0.5614 and 0.5568 with price below both EMA(20) at 0.5554 and EMA(50) at 0.5568, back under the 0.5565 week open. Thursday's NY session pushed to a fresh week low at 0.5540. RSI(14) held 28.7 there against 25.8 at the earlier 0.5544 low, a mild bullish divergence as ATR compresses to 7.3 pips, with the 0.5527 YTD low just beneath.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55537, 0.55654, 0.55683
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20 at 0.5554 is the first sign the lower-highs sequence is stalling
Recovery through the 0.5565 week open and ema50 near 0.5568 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5540 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low; a break there would cancel the RSI divergence read
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's week high; fresh week low printed in NY.
NZDUSD has unwound all of Monday's election-driven rally. The week's drop from the 0.5650 high began after Tuesday's hotter US CPI and carried through lower highs at 0.5614 on Wednesday and 0.5568 on Thursday, with the NY sessions doing most of the damage. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5555 and EMA(50) at 0.5569, under the weekly open at 0.5565, after a fresh week low at 0.5540 late in NY. RSI(14) at 34.8 has made a higher low against that lower price low, a bullish divergence, while ATR eases from 8.6 to 7.7 pips.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55546, 0.55654, 0.55692
What it said to watch
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) could jolt price off the week low
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.5555 and the lower highs line would test the downtrend read, with the weekly open at 0.5565 next
A bounce in the week's drop that stalls below the ema50 at 0.5569 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.5540 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low; a break there marks fresh multi-year lows
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 high.
The week gapped higher on the NZ election result and topped at 0.5650 in Tuesday's London session. The hotter US CPI print then flipped H1 into a lower-high, lower-low sequence, with each leg lower coming during NY hours. Thursday's London bounce to a 0.5568 lower high was rejected below the falling EMA(50), and NY pushed to a fresh week low at 0.5540, leaving price below both EMAs with EMA(20) at 0.5555. RSI(14) at 32.2 sits above Thursday morning's 25.8 trough despite the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, with the 0.5527 YTD low just beneath.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55554, 0.55678, 0.5600
What it said to watch
An H1 close above EMA(20) at 0.5555 and the 0.5568 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline sequence and give the RSI divergence weight
Failure to hold the 0.5540 week low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low; a break there opens fresh multi-year lows
The 0.5600 round number sits near the 38.2% retracement of the Tue-Thu decline and is the cap on any deeper rebound
Business NZ PMI (21:30 UTC) and Fed's Williams (23:30 UTC) tonight, then US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5650 week high. The hot US CPI print broke the election-driven rally, and Thursday's NY session selling pushed price to a fresh week low at 0.5540, beneath the 0.5565 weekly open. Price sits below both EMAs, and the London-hours rebound stalled at the Thu high of 0.5568, just above the ema20 at 0.5557 and under the falling lower-highs line. RSI(14) at 28.7 is oversold but holds above its 25.8 trough while price made a lower low, a mild bullish divergence. Friday's prior low at 0.5538 and the 0.5527 YTD low are the next reference points beneath.
Support: 0.55404, 0.55378, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55565, 0.55678, 0.55712
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5538 prior low puts the 0.5527 ytd low in play; a break there marks fresh multi-year lows
A close back above ema20 0.5557 and the 0.5568 thu high breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
The ema50 at 0.5571 caps any rebound; the CPI selloff fib 38.2% at 0.5582 sits above it
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC is the next major USD catalyst for the week low
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5650 top; price below falling EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Monday's election-driven gap and rally peaked at 0.5650 early Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then triggered the NY-session leg lower, and each bounce since has stalled at a lower high, with price now below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5558 and EMA(50) at 0.5572. Thursday's NY session set a fresh week low at 0.5540, just under the London-open low of 0.5544, while RSI(14) at 29.7 is oversold and held a higher low, a mild bullish divergence. ATR has expanded from 7.0 to 8.4 pips.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55579, 0.55678, 0.55723
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.5558 and Thursday's lower high at 0.5568 (near the 23.6% of the CPI selloff fib) would break the lower-high trendline sequence
Recovery through the ema50 at 0.5572 would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the week low at 0.5540 exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Fed's Daly and Schmid within 30 minutes, then Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact risk for the USD side
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 week high.
The election-driven gap and rally from Monday's open peaked at 0.5650 early Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then flipped the week, and each NY session since has carved a lower high and lower low, today's down to a 0.5540 week low that nearly fills Sunday's gap. Price sits below both a falling EMA(20) at 0.5559 and EMA(50) at 0.5574, and Thursday's 0.5568 lower high capped the latest bounce. RSI(14) at 31.6 printed higher lows into the new price low, a bullish divergence, as ATR expands to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55594, 0.55678, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.5559 and the lower highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read
Clearance of the 0.5568 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs; the 0.5600 pivot sits above
Sustained trade below the 0.5540 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Fed's Daly and Schmid within ~90 min, then Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact USD risk
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI break, weekend gap nearly filled.
Monday's election-driven gap up and the rally to Tuesday's 0.5650 week high have fully unwound. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the move during NY hours, and a lower-high trendline has capped every bounce since, with price now below the weekly open, EMA(20) at 0.5561 and EMA(50) at 0.5575. Thursday's NY session printed a 0.5540 week low, all but completing the gap fill to Friday's 0.5539 close, while RSI(14) at 33.4 sits well above the 26.9 reading at the London-open low, a bullish rsi divergence as ATR expands to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.55404, 0.55392, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55606, 0.55654, 0.55746
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5540 week low and gap fill exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Recovery above ema20 at 0.5561 and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs; the weekly open at 0.5565 and ema50 at 0.5575 sit just above
Fed's Goolsbee in ~30 min, then Daly, Schmid and Williams later today, could extend the USD leg
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's election-driven gap and rally to 0.5650 has been fully retraced since Tuesday's hot US CPI, with highs stepping down from 0.5650 to 0.5614 to today's 0.5568 lower high. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.5562 and EMA(50) at 0.5576. This morning's London bounce off the 0.5544 week low stalled at that lower high, and early NY hours reversed it to 0.5549 as ATR expanded to 8.4 pips. RSI at 32.4 holds above Wednesday's 24 trough despite lower closes, a tentative bullish divergence, with the 0.5527 ytd low the next reference below.
Support: 0.55441, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55618, 0.55678, 0.55756
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5544 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
H1 close above the 0.5568 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence, with the ema50 at 0.5576 next overhead
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 0.5562 keeps rallies inside the downtrend
Fed speakers this afternoon (Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid, Williams) and Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 high.
The post-election gap and rally topped at 0.5650 in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session reversed it, and since then the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, with Wednesday's London-NY hours extending the slide below the 0.5565 weekly open. Thursday's London open set a week low at 0.5544 on a bullish RSI divergence, with RSI(14) recovering from the mid-20s to 40. The bounce stalled at the london high of 0.5568, though, and price is now pressing the flattening ema20 at 0.5563 and the lower-high trendline from below, with ema50 at 0.5577 still declining overhead.
Support: 0.55532, 0.55441, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55631, 0.55678, 0.55767
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5568 london high and ema50 at 0.5577 breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at ema20 and the lower-high trendline keeps the downtrend read intact; losing the 0.5553 ny low exposes the 0.5544 week low
A break of the 0.5544 week low opens the 0.5527 ytd low flagged in the macro digest
Fed speakers this session (Barr 15:00, Goolsbee 16:30, Daly 18:10, Schmid 18:30 UTC) could reprice USD hike odds
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5650 peak; week low 0.5544 set at Thursday's London open.
The election-driven weekly open gap and Monday's rally to 0.5650 have been fully unwound. Tuesday's hot US CPI print in NY hours and a second NY-session leg on Wednesday carved lower highs down to a 0.5544 week low at Thursday's London open. The rebound from there lifted RSI(14) off sub-30 readings to 42.4, a marginally higher RSI low against the lower price low. It stalled at the 0.5569 day high, just under the 23.6% fib of the week's high-low move, and price has slipped back below EMA(20) at 0.5564, with EMA(50) at 0.5577 still sloping lower.
Support: 0.5550, 0.55441, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55636, 0.5569, 0.55774
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5569 day high and EMA(50) at 0.5577 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 0.5584
Loss of the 0.5550 psych level and a break of the 0.5544 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side catalyst
Lower highs since Tuesday; lower-high line broken, capped below EMA(50).
The week gapped up to 0.5565 on the NZ election result. It ran to a 0.5650 high early Tuesday, then hot US CPI turned it during Tuesday's NY session, and lower highs since Wednesday pushed it to a 0.5544 week low at Thursday's London open. The London rebound to the 0.5568 london high has broken the lower-high line and put price back on EMA(20) and the 0.5565 weekly open. RSI(14) made a higher low near 27 against 24 earlier, a bullish divergence. EMA(50) at 0.5578 still slopes down overhead, and price remains below the 23.6% fib of the week's decline.
Support: 0.55639, 0.55441, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55678, 0.55781, 0.55844
What it said to watch
H1 close back below ema20 and the 0.5565 weekly open would put the 0.5544 week low back in play
Break of the week low exposes friday low at 0.5527
H1 close above ema50 at 0.5578 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5584 would extend the retracement of the week's decline
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate through the NY session could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is NZD event risk for the Asia session
Lower highs from 0.5650 week high; bounce back to week open.
The week opened with an election gap up from 0.5539 to 0.5565 and rallied to the 0.5650 week high by Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print in NY hours that day turned it, with the post-CPI decline building a sequence of lower highs. That slide made a fresh week low at 0.5544 in early London today, a lower low that RSI(14) did not confirm (troughs near 24-27 throughout). The bounce since has lifted RSI to 47.6 and put price just back above EMA(20) at 0.5564 and the 0.5565 week open. Price is still below EMA(50) at 0.5579, and today's day high at 0.5570 caps the move for now.
Support: 0.55639, 0.55441, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55701, 0.55786, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5570 day high and EMA(50) at 0.5579 would be the first higher high since CPI; the 0.5600 round number sits above
Slipping back below EMA(20) at 0.5564 and the week open puts the 0.5544 week low back in play, then the 0.5527 friday low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a heavy Fedspeak slate through NY hours could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the NZD-side risk into the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 peak; corrective bounce under EMA(20).
Monday's election gap higher peaked at 0.5650 early Tuesday and reversed after the hot US CPI print. Lower highs at 0.5614 and 0.5570 then pushed price to a 0.5544 week low during early London today, with Wednesday's London open driving the steepest leg. Price sits below both EMAs, and EMA(20) at 0.5564 is sloping lower. RSI(14) has lifted to 39.5 from the mid-20s, and the 0.5544 low printed on a higher RSI reading than Wednesday's, a mild bullish divergence. The bounce is now testing EMA(20) beside the 0.5565 weekly open, with the 0.5570 lower high and the 23.6% retracement of the Tuesday-to-Thursday decline just above, while ATR has compressed to 7.6 pips.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55636, 0.5570, 0.55792
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5570 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens EMA(50) at 0.5579
Failure to hold the 0.5544 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5527 prior-week low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate through the NY session could extend the USD bid
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side risk
Monday's election-driven gap and rally from the 0.5565 week open to the 0.5650 week high has been fully reversed since Tuesday's hot US CPI. NY hours on Tuesday and Wednesday drove the selling, leaving a lower high at 0.5614 and the falling lower-highs line from Tuesday's peak. Price holds below both a declining ema20 (0.5564) and ema50 (0.5580), and RSI has sat between 24 and 35 for most of the past day. The London-open dip to a fresh week low at 0.5544 came with RSI above Wednesday's trough, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR has compressed to 7.5 pips.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5564, 0.55799, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5544 week low exposes the 0.5527 prior-wk low
Sustained trade back above the ema20 at 0.5564 breaks the lower-highs line and tests the ema50 at 0.5580
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through NY hours could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the NZD-side risk into the Asia session
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and decelerating · RSI 27 · price 0.55492
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 peak.
The election gap-up and Monday rally to 0.5650 have fully unwound since Tuesday's hot US CPI print, with each bounce capped below the falling EMA(20). Wednesday's lower high at 0.5614 marked the last rally attempt, and price has since slid to a fresh session low of 0.5544 into the London open, back below the weekly open near the ema20 at 0.5565. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.9 but printed a slightly higher low than Wednesday night's 24.4 while price made a lower close, and ATR has compressed to 7.4 pips, so the down-leg is losing pace rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5565, 0.5581, 0.56139
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 / weekly open at 0.5565 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5544 session low exposes the Friday low at 0.5527
A recovery through the ema50 at 0.5581 would leave the Wednesday lower high at 0.5614 as the next cap
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could extend or reverse the CPI-driven USD bid
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the domestic risk into the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.56495 peak, Monday gap now mostly retraced.
Monday's gap-up rally topped at 0.56495 on Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then triggered a NY-session CPI sell-off, and a second NY-driven leg on Wednesday broke below the 0.5565 weekly open. Price sits under a falling ema20 (0.55663) and ema50 (0.55821), with Wednesday's 0.56139 lower high capping the last rebound. RSI(14) is oversold at 25.8 but has not made a fresh low on today's 0.55503 session low, and ATR has compressed from 8.6 to 7.1 pips as the drop slows.
Support: 0.55503, 0.55392, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55663, 0.55821, 0.56139
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.55503 session low exposes the friday close at 0.55392 gap-fill and the 0.55274 friday low
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.55663 would mark the first break of this week's lower highs
Close above the ema50 at 0.55821 would undercut the downtrend read toward the 0.56139 lower high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could extend or reverse the USD-led slide
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is a domestic risk for the NZD
Lower highs since Tuesday's high, new week low in Asia.
Monday's election-driven gap and rally to 0.5650 has fully unwound. Hot US CPI broke the pair during Tuesday's NY session, and London-to-NY selling on Wednesday extended a run of lower highs to a week low at 0.5555 in Asia today, back below the weekly open at 0.5565. Price sits under a falling ema20 (0.5571) and ema50 (0.5586) with RSI(14) at 29.8, oversold but slightly higher on today's marginal new low, while ATR has compressed to 7.5 pips; Wednesday's rebound stalled at the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib.
Support: 0.55547, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55708, 0.55857
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open and ema20 near 0.5571 would break the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5555 week low exposes the prior wk low at 0.5527
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Thursday's Fedspeak slate could extend or stall the USD bid
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the domestic risk for this read
ema50 at 0.5586 caps any recovery short of the CPI drop fib 38.2% near 0.5591
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5650 peak; price back at the weekly open.
Monday's post-election gap and rally peaked at 0.5650 early Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then drove the slide during NY hours, and Wednesday's London session extended the drop to a swing low at 0.5557, wiping out the move and leaving price pinned at the weekly open. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5573 and EMA(50) at 0.5588, with lower highs capping on the trendline. RSI(14) has lifted to 34.7 from 24.4, and its low on the latest swing low is higher than on the 0.5562 dip, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR compresses to 7.2 pips.
Support: 0.55567, 0.55533, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55734, 0.5588
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5553 week low exposes Friday's low at 0.5527
Reclaim of the weekly open and an H1 close above ema20 at 0.5573 would ease the downtrend read; ema50 at 0.5588 sits above that
Break of the lower-highs trendline near 0.5614 (61.8% fib) would invalidate the sequence of lower highs
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst