NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:26 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but momentum still falling · RSI 28 · price 0.55212
Lower highs (0.5710, 0.5658, 0.5650) and a fresh lower low below 0.5527.
Lower-high sequence from 0.5710 through the 0.5650 lower high, with price now slipping under the 0.5527 prior low to a window low at 0.5521. The CPI-driven USD rally set the leg in motion, and the slightly soft US PPI headline brought no short-covering bounce. Price holds below a falling ema20 at 0.5556 and ema50 at 0.5582 in bearish alignment, with RSI at 27.5 (oversold) and ATR(14) easing from 21.6 to 16.1, so the slide is grinding rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55274, 0.55562, 0.55823
What it said to watch
H4 closes back above the 0.5527 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Sustained trade below the 0.5521 window low exposes the 0.5500 round number, with the 0.5470–0.5485 zone beyond
A recovery through the ema20 at 0.5556 and the ema50 at 0.5582 would challenge the lower-high structure
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Chair Warsh Mon 16 Nov 17:00 UTC could materially shift USD pricing
RBNZ Inflation Expectations Tue 17 Nov 02:00 UTC is the key NZD-side risk to the read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the lows · RSI 29 · price 0.55238
Lower highs at 0.5658 and 0.5650, fresh lower low at 0.5523.
Lower-high structure has held since the 0.5658 peak, and the election-driven pop failed at a lower high of 0.5650 before hot US CPI and Fed-hike repricing drove a four-day slide to a new low at 0.5523, just under the prior 0.5527 trough. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.5560), which remains under the ema50 (0.5585). RSI is oversold at 28.5 while ATR(14) has compressed from 21 to under 17 pips, so the grind lower is slowing. The slightly soft PPI headline produced no bounce.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5480
Resistance: 0.55599, 0.55848, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 acceptance below the 0.5523 new low opens the 0.5470–0.5485 next zone
H4 close back above the ema20 at 0.5560 would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
ema50 at 0.5585 and the lower-high trendline cap any short-covering rebound; only a move above the 0.5650 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson tonight, Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC and RBNZ Inflation Expectations Tue could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding into year low · RSI 31 · price 0.55335
Lower highs since late Oct; retesting 0.5527 low.
Lower highs have held since the late-October 0.5708 top. The late-October drop and the break of the 0.5580–0.5650 range mark the swing lows, and the bounce from 0.5527 stalled at a 0.5650 lower high before the hot US CPI on Wednesday drove the CPI swing back down to the 0.5527 ytd low. Price sits below both the ema20 (0.5564) and ema50 (0.5587), and the ema20 is slope-down beneath the ema50. RSI at 31 is pressing toward oversold without reaching it, while ATR has compressed from 21 to 16.4 pips into the low, and the PPI headline miss with core in line drew little reaction.
Support: 0.5527, 0.5480
Resistance: 0.55636, 0.55873, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5527 ytd low confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.5470–0.5485 next zone
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.5564 and the ema50 at 0.5587 would stall the lower-highs sequence
Break above the 0.5650 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman and Daly later today, then RBNZ Inflation Expectations Tue, could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 0.5658, 0.5650 and 0.5614 define the swing structure. The hot US CPI print on Nov 10 cut the post-election rally off at 0.5650, and the pair has since ground down to a 0.5534 swing low, just above the 0.5527 YTD low. Price sits below both falling EMAs, with the ema20 (0.5567) under the ema50 (0.5590), while ATR(14) has compressed from 21 to 16.5 pips and RSI at 32 is near, but not in, oversold territory.
Support: 0.55335, 0.55274, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55668, 0.55895, 0.56139
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 0.5527 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.5500 round number.
A recovery above the ema20 at 0.5567 and the 0.5592 50% retracement of the CPI leg fib would ease the downtrend read.
A break of the lower-highs line through the 0.5614 lower high would negate the sequence.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with headline seen ~6.6% y/y, could materially shift this read; ATR compression leaves room for expansion.
RBNZ Inflation Expectations on Tue Nov 17 is the next NZD-side risk to the swing structure.
Lower highs since 0.5710; bars stalled above 0.5527 YTD low.
Lower highs at 0.5708, 0.5658 and the 0.5650 cpi high keep the swing structure pointed lower. The post-CPI leg has erased most of the bounce off the 0.5527 YTD low on hot US inflation and fading RBNZ hike odds. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5570 and EMA(50) at 0.5592, with RSI at 33.4. ATR(14) has compressed from 21.6 to 16.9 pips as bars tighten just above the 0.5538 swing low.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5570, 0.5592, 0.5650
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today: a hot print extends the CPI move, a soft one risks a squeeze through the ema20
H4 close below the 0.5527 ytd low confirms a range break, with the 0.5500 round number next
Recovery above the ema50 at 0.5592 breaks the post-CPI fib 50% and the lower-highs sequence
RSI dropping under 30 would flag an oversold read into the swing low
RBNZ inflation expectations on Tuesday 02:00 UTC could shift the NZD side of the read
Lower highs since 0.5710; testing the 0.5527 ytd low zone.
Lower highs at 0.5710, 0.5658 and 0.5650 define the swing structure. The election-driven relief rally failed at that last lower high once the hot US October CPI print revived Fed hike pricing, and the slide has since stalled at the 0.5538 week low, just above the 0.5527 ytd low. Price is below both the ema20 (0.5573) and ema50 (0.5594), with the ema20 under the ema50, and ATR(14) has compressed from 21.6 to 17.5 pips as the pair grinds lower.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5573, 0.5594, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5527 ytd low confirms a lower-low and fresh multi-month lows
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5573 would mark the first break of the selling sequence
The 0.5594 ema50, near the 50% retracement of the 0.5650-0.5538 leg, is the next cap if price bounces
US PPI at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers Bowman/Daly later today could materially shift this read
RBNZ inflation expectations on Tue 02:00 UTC are the main NZD-side risk to the lower-high structure