20:03 UTC
Downtrend resuming, lower highs since mid-2025 · RSI 36 · price 0.55245
Break below year-long 0.5576–0.6093 range; lower-highs sequence intact.
NZD/USD has slipped below the 0.5576 2025 low that floored a range since Q4 2025. The move extends a lower-highs line running from the 0.6093 January peak through 0.5988 in August, within the broader decline from the 0.6120 July 2025 high. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5711 and a falling EMA(50) at 0.5780, so the macro trend filter reads lower. Fed–RBNZ divergence, sharpened by the strong US payrolls and hot CPI prints, carried the pair to a 19-month low at 0.5522, while RSI at 35.9 is soft but not oversold, leaving the 0.5500 psych level as the next reference.
Support: 0.55223, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55761, 0.57112, 0.57804
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.5522 19m low confirms the range break and exposes the 0.5500 psych level
- Recovery back above the 0.5576 2025 low would mark the break as a false break and return price to the old range
- Weekly close above the ema20 at 0.5711 would be the first sign of the lower-highs sequence stalling
- RSI(14) dropping under 30 would mark the first oversold reading in the window
- Fed Chair Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC), RBNZ Inflation Expectations (Tue 02:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read