NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 14 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 63 · price 0.58077
Higher highs / higher lows since mid-window low.
NZDUSD has rallied off the 0.5630 low in a clean higher-low sequence, tagging 0.58412 before easing to 0.58077 — the RBNZ hawkish repricing plus this week's soft US CPI miss underpinning the leg. Price is now pressing the 0.5810-0.5825 confluence resistance with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked below and rising. ATR remains moderate, consistent with a controlled trend rather than a blow-off.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5825, 0.58412
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 0.5825 confluence opens continuation toward and beyond the 0.58412 swing high
Failure to hold 0.5770 initial support threatens the higher-low structure, exposing 0.5700 cpi support
NZ Q2 CPI (Jul 20) is the key event risk into crowded longs and could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 64 · price 0.58077
Higher highs and higher lows since early-month base.
NZDUSD has rallied off the 0.5630 base to press the 0.5810-0.5825 confluence, a two-week advance driven by hawkish RBNZ repricing and reinforced this week by the soft US June CPI miss. Structure is a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows with price holding above both EMAs; the pair stalled just under the confluence after tagging 0.5841. ATR is expanding as the trend extends rather than compressing.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5700, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5825, 0.5841
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 0.5825 opens the path toward and beyond the 0.5841 swing high
Failure to hold 0.5770 would mark the first lower low and undercut the uptrend
NZ Q2 CPI on Jul 20 is the key test of the RBNZ tightening bias and could materially shift this read
Higher lows since early-month base, rejection near 0.5840.
NZDUSD has carved a rounded base off the 0.5626 low and rallied to a three-week high, with NZD leading G10 on hawkish RBNZ repricing after the 25bp hike to 2.50%. Price tagged 0.5841 before fading back to 0.5805, running into the 0.5810-0.5825 confluence that has repeatedly capped. Higher-low structure is intact and ATR is expanding as the leg extends.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5825, 0.58412
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5825 confluence opens the path toward fresh multi-week highs
Failure to hold 0.5770 support exposes 0.5700 prior base
NZ CPI on Jul 20 is the key catalyst and could reset this read
17:04 UTC
Uptrend, capped at resistance · RSI 62 · price 0.58051
Higher highs & higher lows since mid-month low.
NZDUSD has rallied off the 0.5630 mid-month low in a clean higher-high, higher-low sequence, powered by hawkish RBNZ repricing and amplified by yesterday's soft US CPI miss. Price pushed to a session high of 0.5841 but was rejected back to 0.5805, stalling into the 0.5810-0.5825 confluence that has repeatedly capped this pair. ATR is expanding as the trend extends, with EMA20 and EMA50 both below price.
Support: 0.5794, 0.5770, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5825, 0.58412
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5825 confluence opens the path to fresh multi-week highs
Failure to hold 0.5794 breaks the latest higher-low structure
NZ CPI on Jul 20 is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 66 · price 0.58007
Higher highs/lows into resistance.
NZDUSD has carved higher highs and higher lows since the mid-window low near 0.5626, with the RBNZ's hawkish 25bp hike underpinning the multi-week climb. Price now presses the 0.5810-0.5820 confluence, the key overhead cap, with ATR(14) around 22 pips and both EMAs beneath spot. US CPI and Warsh testimony today are the immediate USD-side variables into this level.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5720, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5815, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5820 confluence opens the 0.5825 prior high and fresh multi-week highs
Rejection at 0.5810-0.5820 risks a fade back toward 0.5770 swing low
US CPI / Warsh testimony today could materially shift this read
Loss of 0.5770 would break the higher-low sequence
Higher highs and higher lows since mid-window base.
NZDUSD has carved out a rounded base off the 0.5630 low and rallied into the 0.5810-0.5820 confluence, printing consistent higher lows on the RBNZ hawkish-hike theme. Price closed at 0.58007, right beneath the multi-week ceiling, with ATR expanding as the recovery extends. The zone above is the pivotal area to monitor for rejection or a clean break.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5820, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5820 opens the 0.5825 4-wk high
Failure to hold 0.5770 breaks the higher-low structure
US CPI and Warsh testimony today could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Higher lows since 0.5630 base, testing 0.5800 cap.
NZDUSD has rebuilt a clean higher-low sequence off the 0.5630 base, riding the hawkish RBNZ hike back toward the 0.5800 monthly peak and 200-day SMA that has capped the pair repeatedly. Price sits at 0.5796 with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked below and RSI in the low-60s — momentum intact but pressing overhead supply. US CPI today is the near-term swing catalyst.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5700, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5786
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5800 clears the 200-day sma and opens 0.5825
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 0.5770 near support risks a slide to 0.5700
NZDUSD carved a rounded bottom near 0.5630 mid-window and has printed higher lows since, now retracing roughly 78% of the earlier 0.5843-0.5626 decline and pressing the 0.5800 monthly peak cited as the key overhead cap. The RBNZ's hawkish hold and firm business surveys underpin the recovery, but a two-way USD keeps the advance contained just below the level. ATR is moderate, consistent with a grind rather than an impulsive extension.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5730, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5825, 0.5843
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5800 opens the path to 0.5825
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 0.5770 threatens the higher-low sequence
Higher-low structure intact since the mid-June base near 0.5630, with price rallying back to the three-week high and now pressing the 0.5794/0.5825 resistance cluster on the hawkish RBNZ hold. ATR(14) is expanding as the trend extends and both EMAs sit below price. The 0.5794 area has capped twice — the reaction here is decisive for whether the recovery leg continues.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5825 opens continuation of the recovery leg
Rejection at 0.5794 and a break of the 0.5700 pivot exposes 0.5672
NZ Q2 CPI on 20 Jul could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Recovery, higher lows since June low · RSI 63 · price 0.57909
Uptrend off 0.5630 base, testing 3-week high.
Higher-low structure intact since the mid-June low near 0.5630, with price now rallying back into the 0.5794 three-week high and overhead SMA cluster that has capped follow-through. The recovery has nearly fully retraced the earlier drop from 0.5843, aided by a hawkish-RBNZ tailwind, though the 200-day SMA above remains the key ceiling. ATR is steady rather than expanding, leaving the pair pressed against resistance.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794/0.5825 confirms extension of the recovery
Failure to hold the 0.5700 pivot exposes 0.5672 then 0.5650
NZ Q2 CPI on 20 Jul (22:45 UTC) is the decisive risk for this read
01:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum easing · RSI 57 · price 0.57631
Higher highs and higher lows since mid-June low.
NZDUSD has carved higher highs and higher lows off the mid-June low near 0.5630, with a clean impulse into the 0.5793 three-week high after the hawkish RBNZ hike. Price is now pulling back into the 0.5746 fib zone, holding above rising EMA20 and EMA50. ATR has expanded as the leg extended, and the pair is coiling just below the 0.5793 pivot ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.57459, 0.5720, 0.56701
Resistance: 0.57928, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5793 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Loss of 0.5746 fib zone shifts focus to the 0.5720 swing low
US CPI Tuesday is the near-term USD driver and could reshape this read
01:03 UTC
Recovery, higher lows · RSI 54 · price 0.57631
Uptrend off double bottom, pulling back.
Price carved a double bottom near 0.5630 mid-window and has built a chain of higher lows, rallying to a three-week high at 0.5793 before this pullback to 0.5763 — the move underpinned by the hawkish RBNZ hike. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50, confirming the swing shift higher, though ATR remains moderate as the 0.5793 high caps the advance. A close through 0.5793 would expose the 0.5825 SMA cluster.
Support: 0.5747, 0.5700, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5793, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5793 unlocks the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5747 confirms a lower-low and stalls the recovery
US CPI Tuesday and Warsh testimony are the near-term USD swing factor