False break below the 0.5580 base, then range break above 0.5635.
The slide from the 0.5749 sept high flattened into a two-week 0.5580-0.5640 base. Wednesday's hot US CPI produced a false break to the 0.5565 swing low, and a USD-led reversal on lower yields and RBNZ hike pricing then carried price through the range top to a 0.5675 week high. Price now sits above the 0.5635 range top and both EMAs. ATR(14) has expanded to about 23 pips off the base, with the 0.5687 prior high the next cap overhead.
Support: 0.5635, 0.5620, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5687, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.5635 range top would turn the range break into a failed move
Holding the 50% fib of the rally near 0.5620 and the rally support line keeps the higher-low sequence from 0.5565 intact
H4 close above the 0.5675 week high opens the 0.5687 prior high, then the 0.5749 sept high
Loss of 0.5620 brings the 0.5565 swing low back into focus
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21 Oct 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read, with a soft print the larger risk to the rally
False break of 0.5580 range floor, then breakout above 0.5634 range top.
The decline from the 0.5749 window high broke the 0.5580 range floor to a 0.5565 swing low on the hot US CPI. That move proved a false break: price reversed and broke above the 0.5634 range top as US yields fell and the RBNZ chief economist said a rate rise is still the most likely outcome. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the decline, just under the 0.5675 recent high, with EMA20 above EMA50, a rising support line from the low intact, and ATR(14) expanding to about 22 pips.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5600, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5687, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.5634 range top would undercut the breakout read and bring the 0.5600 round number back into play
H4 acceptance above the 0.5687 prior high, near the 61.8% decline retrace, opens the path toward the 0.5749 window high
A break of rising support from the 0.5565 swing low would signal the rebound is losing momentum
US Industrial Production today, NZ trade data on Sunday and NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21 Oct (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5749; false break below range, then break above range top.
Lower highs have run from the 0.5749 swing high, with price holding a 0.5580-0.5643 range for about two weeks. The hot US CPI drove a false break to the 0.5565 swing low. Falling US yields and hawkish-leaning RBNZ comments then lifted the pair through the range top and the lower-high line, with ATR(14) expanding to about 22 pips. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 0.5749-0.5565 decline. The 61.8% level at 0.5679 lies just under the prior high at 0.5687.
Support: 0.5643, 0.5600, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.5643 range top would mark the breakout as a false break and return price to the range
Rejection at the 0.5679 fib / 0.5687 prior high would keep the lower-high sequence from 0.5749 intact
A clean close above the 0.5687 prior high opens the path to the 0.5749 swing high
Loss of the 0.5600 round number, then a re-break of the 0.5565 swing low, would resume the downtrend
US Industrial Production today 13:15 UTC and NZ Q3 CPI on Oct 21 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since mid-Sep; 0.5580-0.5635 range broken to upside.
Two weeks of lower highs compressed into a 0.5580-0.5635 range. Wednesday's hot US CPI print produced a false break to the 0.5565 swing low before falling US yields and hawkish RBNZ remarks from Conway drove a reversal. The latest bar has cleared the range top and the 0.5634 breakout lvl, retracing past 61.8% of the late-Sep fib with ATR(14) near 21 pips expanding. Price now sits above both EMAs and is pressing the 0.5665 lower high from late September.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5600, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.5634 breakout lvl would mark the range break as a failed move
A close above the 0.5665 lower high opens the path to the 0.5687 prior high
Loss of the 0.5600 round number puts the range floor and the 0.5565 swing low back in play; a break there resumes the downtrend
US Industrial Production today at 13:15 UTC and a rebound in US yields could shift this read
NZ Q3 CPI on Oct 21 at 21:45 UTC is the key event risk for RBNZ hike pricing
01:04 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a range · RSI 53 · price 0.56197
0.5580–0.5635 range after a lower-high sequence from 0.5749; false break to 0.5565 reclaimed.
The slide from the 0.5749 swing high has stalled into a two-week range between the 0.5580 range low and the 0.5635 range high. The hot US CPI print pushed price through the floor to 0.5565, an 18-month low. That break was reclaimed within a day as US yields fell and the RBNZ signalled a hike, and price now sits back above the 0.5600 psych level. EMA20 and EMA50 have flattened together just under price, and ATR(14) near 20 pips is only modestly above the mid-range compression. The read is a false break inside a base, not a resumed trend leg.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5635 range high, which also aligns with the 38.2% fib of the 0.5749–0.5565 decline, breaks the range and exposes the 0.5643 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych level returns price to the 0.5580 range low
A close back below 0.5565 voids the false break and confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21 Oct is the next high-impact test of the range edges