21:05 UTC
Downtrend stalled, sharp rebound underway · RSI 65 · price 0.56517
First higher high and higher low after a three-week lower-high sequence.
The lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 0.5749 window high ended with a false break below 0.5580. Price washed out to the 0.5565 18-month low after the 3.7% US CPI print, then reversed as the USD and US yields softened. The rebound cleared the 0.5630 range top that had capped price three times, printed a three-week high at 0.5675, and is now consolidating above the 0.5641 pullback low and the rising rebound trendline. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 21 pips has expanded off its compression regime.
Support: 0.56407, 0.5630, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.56874, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- NZ Q3 CPI on Oct 21 at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read ahead of the late-October RBNZ decision
- An H4 close back below the 0.5630 range top, near the 38.2% rebound fib, would put price back inside the prior range
- A close above the 0.5675 three-week high opens the 0.5687 prior high, with the 0.5749 window high beyond
- Loss of the 0.5641 pullback low and the rebound trendline would undercut the higher-low structure
- A US yield re-bid on Tuesday's housing data or Friday's PMIs could cap the rebound