21:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 18-month lows · RSI 43 · price 0.56517
LH/LL chain from late August; 0.5580-0.5630 base, false break lower, rebound to 3-week high.
Two-month downtrend from the 0.5988 August 21 high. The pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, and price has held below a falling EMA(50) near 0.5720 since early September. Early October built a base between the 0.5580 range floor and the 0.5630 base top. Wednesday's push to an 18-month low at 0.5565 after the 3.7% US CPI print failed and reversed as US yields eased. Friday then reached a 3-week high at 0.5675, just above the 23.6% level of the August–October fib. Price is only marginally back above EMA(20), and RSI near 43 is recovering but has not crossed 50, so the rebound is still a correction inside the broader decline.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5687, 0.5720
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.5675 3-week high and the 0.5687 sep swing exposes the falling EMA(50) near 0.5720 and the 38.2% August–October fib at 0.5727
- Slip back below the 0.5630 base top returns price to the early-October range; a close under the 0.5565 18-month low confirms a fresh lower low beneath the 0.5580 range floor
- NZ Q3 CPI on Oct 21 (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read ahead of the late-October RBNZ decision
- US Treasury yields and Fri Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs; a yield rebound would test whether supply caps the bounce below the EMA(50)