21:06 UTC
Downtrend, counter-trend rebound underway · RSI 51 · price 0.56604
LH/LL chain since the 21 Aug high; October base broken to the upside.
NZDUSD has made lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5988 high on 21 Aug, and price remains below a falling EMA(50) near 0.5712. Since early October it based between the 0.5565 cycle low and a 0.5635 range top. A three-session rally on the China GDP beat and softer US yields broke above that range and stalled near 0.5675, at the 23.6% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline fib and just under the 0.5688 Sept high. RSI has recovered to the low 50s from sub-40 readings, while price only just reclaims EMA(20) near 0.5650.
Support: 0.5635, 0.5600, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5712, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- A daily close back below the 0.5635 range top would turn last week's range break into a false break
- A daily close above the 0.5688 Sept high opens the ema50 near 0.5712 and the 0.5749 lower high from 21 Sep
- NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21 Oct at 21:45 UTC (0.8% q/q forecast) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 0.5600 round number and 0.5565 cycle low back in focus
- US S&P PMIs on Fri 23 Oct and the direction of US yields remain the main cap on the rebound