NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Rally from mid-week low, now stalling below week high · RSI 52 · price 0.56632
Impulse higher Wed–Fri, then a 0.5641–0.5675 range with higher lows.
The week's dominant move was the rebound from Wednesday's NY-session low at 0.5565 to 0.5675 by Friday's London session. Asia and London hours drove most of the gains as US yields slid and the China GDP beat supported risk. Monday's London push stalled at the week high for a second time as a rebound in US yields lifted the dollar. Price is now flat just above EMA(20) near 0.5662, with RSI(14) around 52. The friday low and the weekly open have both held well above the 38.2% fib of the rally.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5633
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high breaks the range top and opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
Failure to hold the higher lows line and the 0.5652 weekly open exposes the 0.5641 friday low; a break there turns the twin highs into a double top
A move below the 38.2% fib at 0.5633 marks a deeper retrace of the Wed–Fri rally
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (0.8% q/q f/c) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5565, equal highs capping at 0.5675.
NZDUSD has recovered about 110 pips from Wednesday's 0.5565 low, the lowest since April 2025, on softer US yields, and Monday's China GDP beat extended it. Higher lows have printed at 0.5591 and the 0.5641 swing low. Monday's NY-session push stalled at 0.5675, matching Friday's week high, with RSI(14) peaking lower as the US yield rebound capped gains, and price now sits just under EMA(20) near 0.5662 and above EMA(50) near the 0.5652 weekly open.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56519, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high opens the 0.5690 sept high from late September
Failure to hold the 0.5659 pullback low and the 0.5652 weekly open puts the 0.5641 swing low and the rally's 38.2% fib near 0.5633 in play
Repeated rejection at the 0.5675 cap with the bearish RSI divergence would mark a stall in the higher-lows sequence
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read, with RBNZ hike odds ~80% priced
A further rebound in US 10y yields from 5.13% is the main pressure point on the advance
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 low; equal highs at 0.5675 capping.
NZDUSD has retraced nearly all of Wednesday's NY-session slide to 0.5565. Asia and London sessions drove a series of higher lows through Friday and into Monday's push on the China GDP beat. That advance stalled at 0.5675, matching Friday's week high, and the rebound in US yields has since held price in a tight 0.5660s drift around a flattening EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled to ~51 after Friday's run, and the higher-lows trendline from the Friday low is now being tested.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5633
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high breaks the equal-highs cap and exposes the 0.5690 sept high
Failure to hold the 0.5652 monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence; the 0.5641 friday low and the 38.2% fib of the Wed-Fri rally at 0.5633 sit beneath
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
A further rebound in US 10y yields above 5.13% is the main cap visible on rallies
Higher lows intact, double cap at 0.5675 week high.
NZDUSD has built higher lows since Wednesday's NY-session flush to 0.5565. The bounce extended Monday on China's Q3 GDP beat and firmer risk sentiment, with the weekly open at 0.5652 holding through the Asia and London sessions. The 0.5675 week high capped Friday's London push and again Monday's first hour of NY as US yields rebounded. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR(14) compressing to ~7 pips.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5633
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high breaks the double cap and opens the 0.5690 sept high (late-September highs)
Loss of the 0.5652 weekly open and the higher lows line puts Friday's 0.5641 swing low in play
A break of the 0.5641 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.5633, the first retracement of the Wednesday–Friday impulse
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC and NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Uptrend off the 0.5565 low, momentum stalling · RSI 52 · price 0.56612
Higher lows since Wednesday, capped by equal highs at 0.5675.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 0.5565 marked the low. Since then the pair has printed a run of higher lows, and Monday's China GDP-led bid lifted it back to 0.5675 in the first hour of NY. Supply capped that push at Friday's London-session high, leaving equal highs at 0.5675. Price has since eased to sit fractionally below the EMA(20) near 0.5662 with RSI(14) back near 52, still above the 0.5659 NY low, the weekly open at 0.5652 and the rising higher-lows line.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 equal highs opens the 0.5690 sept high
Loss of the 0.5659 NY low and the 0.5652 weekly open breaks the higher-lows line
Failure to hold the 0.5641 swing low (near the 38.2% fib at ~0.5633) ends the higher-low sequence
US housing starts Tue 12:30 UTC could move the pair; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the bigger risk to this read
16:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at the week high · RSI 53 · price 0.56614
Higher lows off 0.5565, capped by a double high near 0.5675.
NZDUSD has recovered from Wednesday's NY-session low at 0.5565 to a double high near 0.5675. Friday's Asia–London push was the dominant leg, and Monday's China GDP beat lifted the pair back to the same ceiling before a rejection in the first hours of NY. Price has slipped to the EMA(20) near 0.5662 with RSI(14) around 53, against roughly 70 at Friday's peak, a bearish divergence at the double high, while the Monday dip low at 0.5652 and the Friday low at 0.5641 keep the higher-lows sequence intact.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 double high opens the path to the 0.5690 Sept high
Failure to hold the 0.5641 Friday low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 38.2% fib of the week's rally near 0.5633 in view
Sustained trade below the Monday dip at 0.5652 turns EMA(20) into overhead supply
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; US Housing Starts Tue 12:30 UTC is the nearer USD input
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.5675 · RSI 61 · price 0.56684
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 low; equal highs capping at 0.5675.
Since Wednesday's 0.5565 low the pair has printed a clean sequence of higher lows. Friday's dip held at the friday low of 0.5641, near the 23.6–38.2% retracement of the impulse, and Monday's week open at 0.5652 has held as support since. The London-into-NY rally today, helped by the China Q3 GDP beat and a softer USD, retested Friday's 0.5675 high and stalled there, leaving equal highs with RSI(14) near 61. Price is holding above EMA(20) at about 0.5663 and EMA(50).
Support: 0.5663, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5675 equal highs opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
A break back below the ema20 near 0.5663 that extends through the 0.5652 weekly open would break the higher-low trendline
Losing the 0.5641 friday low would put the 38.2% retracement near 0.5633 in view
US housing starts and permits on Tue from 12:15 UTC could shift USD tone
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Uptrend, retesting week high · RSI 61 · price 0.56703
NZDUSD has built a run of higher lows off Wednesday's NY-session low at 0.5565. Thursday and Friday's Asia sessions drove the rally to the 0.5675 week high, and Friday's NY pullback held 0.5641, a shallow retracement of the rally fib. Monday's London-open dip to the london low at 0.5652, level with the weekly open, met demand, and price is back testing the week high above a rising EMA(20) near 0.5662, helped by China's Q3 GDP beat and a soft USD.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high opens the late-September high (sept high) near 0.5690
Failure to hold the 0.5652 london low and then the 0.5641 friday low breaks the higher lows sequence
H1 closes back below ema20 near 0.5662 would mark a stall at the week high
US Housing Starts / Building Permits Tue 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) is the main event risk for this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low; Monday compressing below the week high.
The hot US CPI print knocked the pair to 0.5565 during Wednesday's NY session. Falling Fed hike odds then drove a recovery that printed a higher low at 0.5591 on Thursday and a week high at 0.5675 in Friday's London session, with only a shallow pullback to the 0.5641 friday low. Monday has held a tight 0.5647–0.5665 range above the weekly open near 0.5652. The China GDP beat offset a wider NZ trade deficit, and the London-open push to the monday high at 0.5665 was rejected, leaving a lower high below the week high.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high reopens the 0.5690 sep high from late September
Failure below the 0.5641 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and the trendline; 0.5591 higher low then comes into view
Repeated rejection at the 0.5665 monday high keeps the lower-high cap in place below the week high
US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC and NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low then breakout; consolidating 0.5641–0.5675.
Wednesday's US CPI drop in the NY session bottomed at 0.5565. A higher low followed at 0.5591 on Thursday, then Friday's Asia-to-London impulse reached the 0.5675 week high as Fed hike odds faded. Since then price has consolidated above the 23.6% retracement of that impulse: the friday low at 0.5641 held, and Monday's trade is pinned to the weekly open near 0.5652, where EMA(20) also sits. A London-open rejection at the monday high of 0.5665 printed a second lower high under 0.5675, with RSI(14) cooled to around 51 and EMA(50) near 0.5643 still rising underneath.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5690 sept high
Failure to hold the 0.5641 friday low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% impulse fib near 0.5633
A break of the 0.5591 higher low would unwind most of the post-CPI impulse
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; US jobless claims Thu and PMIs Fri are the USD-side risk
07:05 UTC
Uptrend from midweek low, consolidating near highs · RSI 61 · price 0.56647
Higher lows 0.5591 / 0.5641 off the CPI low; 0.5641–0.5675 range since Friday.
The hot US CPI drop to 0.5565 on Wednesday reversed as Fed hike odds faded. It stair-stepped up to a 0.5675 week high in Friday's London session, and the NY pullback held the friday low at 0.5641, above the fib 38.2 at 0.5633. Monday's Asia session opened at the 0.5652 weekly open and has ground higher on the China GDP beat. Dips are finding EMA(20) near 0.5654, and RSI(14) is around 61 with no divergence against the prior high.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5633
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the 0.5700 round number
Break below the 0.5641 friday low snaps the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.5633
Sustained trade back under the 0.5652 weekly open and EMA(20) would turn the range read lower within 0.5641–0.5675
NZ Q3 CPI Tue 21:45 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read, with a miss carrying more downside room given ~80% RBNZ hike pricing
Higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low; tight range above weekly open.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 0.5565 on hot US CPI was fully retraced as US yields faded. Thursday printed a higher low at 0.5591, and the Asia–London push on Friday carried price to the 0.5675 week high. The pullback found demand at the 0.5641 friday low, well above the 38.2% fib at 0.5633, and Monday's Asian session is holding a 0.5647–0.5662 band above the weekly open and EMA(20) after the China GDP beat, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5633
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5662 asian high reopens the 0.5675 week high; acceptance above it extends the rebound leg
Loss of the 0.5652 weekly open and the 0.5641 friday low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5633 and the higher-lows trendline
NZ Q3 CPI Tue 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read; a miss carries more downside room given ~80% RBNZ hike pricing
US housing data and ADP Tue 12:30 UTC feed into Fed-pause pricing and USD direction
Impulse off midweek low, now tight range under 0.5675.
The rebound from Wednesday's 0.5565 low after the hot US CPI print ran to a 0.5675 week high in Friday's London session as US yields eased. NY trade then pulled price back to the 0.5641 friday low, which held above the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse. Monday's Asia session, supported by China's Q3 GDP beat, is holding a narrow 0.5647–0.5662 range. Price is sitting on the weekly open, where EMA(20) also runs, with RSI(14) near 57 and off Friday's highs.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5641 friday low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.5633, then the 0.5600 round number
Clearance of the 0.5662 monday high and the lower highs line puts the 0.5675 week high back in play
Repeated H1 closes below the weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.5652 would mark a shift from range to pullback
US ADP and housing data Tue 12:15–12:30 UTC could move USD before the Asia-session CPI print
NZ Q3 CPI Tue 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; a miss has more downside room with RBNZ hike odds near 80%
Higher low at 0.5641 after V-recovery from 0.5565; tight Monday range above EMA(20).
NZDUSD has fully reversed Wednesday's US CPI slide to the 0.5565 low. Thursday's Asia rebound and Friday's Asia–London leg carried it to a 0.5675 week high, before NY hours faded it to the 0.5641 friday low, a shallow pullback that held above the 38.2% retracement of the Wed low–week high move. Monday's Asian session is coiling between the 0.5652 weekly open and the 0.5662 monday high after China's Q3 GDP beat, with price just above EMA(20), RSI(14) near 60 and the softer USD tone intact.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high extends the recovery and opens the 0.5700 round number
Break below the 0.5641 friday low and the 38.2% fib undercuts the higher-low sequence, exposing the 0.5591 thu low
Failure to hold the 0.5652 weekly open turns Monday's range into a lower-high below the week high
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC, then NZ Q3 CPI Tue 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ), could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday; tight consolidation above weekly open.
NZDUSD has rebuilt from Wednesday's NY-session low at 0.5565, set on the hot US CPI print, as easing US yields carried it to a 0.5675 week high during Friday's London session. Friday's NY pullback held the friday low at 0.5641, above the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse at 0.5633. Monday's Asia session is consolidating just above the weekly open at 0.5652, where EMA(20) has converged, with RSI(14) cooled to ~60 and the monday high at 0.5662 capping the range.
Support: 0.56519, 0.56407, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 0.5641 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5633
Close above the monday high at 0.5662 puts the 0.5675 week high back in play
Sustained trade back below the weekly open at 0.5652 would turn EMA(20) from support to cap
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q): a soft print could reopen the 0.5600 round number
US housing data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
Higher lows since Wed low; consolidating below week high.
H1 has printed higher lows since the hot US CPI flush to 0.5565 in Wednesday's NY session. Softer USD and lower US yields carried price to a 0.5675 week high in Friday's London session. Friday's NY pullback held at 0.5641, inside the 23.6–38.2% retracement of the rebound fib, and Monday's Asia session is coiling between the 0.5652 weekly open and the 0.5662 monday high, with price just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5641 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.5600 round number back in view
Acceptance above the 0.5662 monday high reopens the 0.5675 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5652 weekly open and EMA(20) shifts the consolidation lower within the range
Hormuz/oil headlines during the Asia session could lift USD and materially shift this read
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the main event risk for the week's structure
Higher lows 0.5565/0.5591/0.5641; consolidating under 0.5675 week high.
NZDUSD has climbed off Wednesday's 0.5565 swing low after the hot US CPI. The rebound printed higher lows at Thursday's 0.5591 swing low and the 0.5641 friday low, as US yields fell and Fed hike odds were pared rather than on NZ strength. Friday's NY session faded from the 0.5675 week high, and the Asia session open is now coiling between the weekly open at 0.5652 and the 0.5662 monday high, with EMA(20) flat near 0.5651 and RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5641 friday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and brings the 38.2% fib near 0.5633 into play
Clearance of the 0.5662 monday high and then the 0.5675 week high reopens the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the weekly open at 0.5652 with EMA(20) rolling over would turn the consolidation into a deeper pullback toward the 0.5591 swing low
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read given ~80% RBNZ hike pricing
Hormuz/Iran headlines at the open are a haven-USD risk to the rebound; US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; 0.5641–0.5675 range under the week high.
The rebound from Wednesday's hot-CPI low at 0.5565 ran through Thursday and Friday's Asia and London sessions to a 0.5675 week high, as USD eased with yields and Fed hike odds faded. Friday's NY pullback held the 0.5641 swing low, above the 38.2% fib of the impulse at 0.5633, keeping the higher-lows sequence intact. Monday's Asia session has lifted price back above the weekly open at 0.5652 and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 62 and price testing the 0.5662 asia high just below the 0.5670–0.5675 three-week-high zone.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641, 0.5633
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5652 weekly open and EMA(20) puts the 0.5641 swing low back in focus
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.5633 38.2% fib would challenge the uptrend read, with the 0.5600 pivot below
A close above the 0.5675 week high opens the path to the 0.5700 round number
Hormuz headlines at the Asian open and NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read