Higher lows from 0.5591; 0.5699 spike rejected, testing trendline.
NZD/USD has printed higher lows since Thursday's 0.5591 NY-session low. Friday's Asia-to-London run cleared the 0.5675 prior highs, and a softer USD after weak US housing data carried the pair to a 0.5699 week high in the first hour of NY on Tuesday. That spike was rejected back under the 0.5690 late-Sept high, with RSI(14) peaking at about 67 versus about 75 at Tuesday's London high. Price has since eased to 0.5677, below EMA(20) and slightly under the rising trendline from Thursday's low, with RSI at the 50 midline.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5658, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
H1 closes below the 0.5675 prior high would confirm the trendline break and expose the 38.2% fib of the Thu–Tue impulse near 0.5658
A recovery above EMA(20) and the 0.5690 sept high reopens the 0.5699 week high
A loss of 0.5652, the weekly open and last week's breakout zone, would unwind the week's advance
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC Wed (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) with RBNZ hike ~80% priced could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday; NY rejection at week high, now compressing 0.5676–0.5689.
The weekly impulse from Thursday's 0.5591 low has printed higher lows throughout. Friday's Asia-to-London sessions drove the main leg, and Monday and Tuesday London extended it as USD eased on US-Iran deal hopes and soft housing data. Tuesday's NY spike to a 0.5699 week high was rejected back under the 0.5689 sept high, and price has since compressed between the 0.5676 ny low and that ceiling, holding just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56587, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high would clear the NY rejection and the 0.5689 sept high cap
Failure to hold the 0.5676 ny low exposes the 0.5659 monday low and the 38.2% retrace of the weekly impulse near 0.5657
A break below the 0.5652 weekly open would undo this week's higher-low sequence
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a slide back toward 0.5650–0.5665
Higher lows since Friday's NY low; week-high wick rejected at 0.5699.
From the 0.5652 weekly open, Tuesday's London session drove the dominant leg. Price cleared Monday's 0.5675 cap and pressed into the 0.5690 late-September highs as the USD softened on US-Iran deal hopes and weak housing data, with a 2.5% GDT rise adding support. The NY push to a 0.5699 week high was rejected, but the pullback held the 0.5676 swing low, the 38.2% fib of the Friday-to-Tuesday leg, and price is back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56764, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.56987
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 psych invalidates the rejection read
Break of the Tuesday higher-lows trendline and the 0.5676 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 0.5670
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q); a soft print risks a slide back toward the 0.5652 weekly open
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 0.5680 would mark a stall at the sept highs
Higher lows since Friday, tight range under 0.5699 rejection.
The rally from last Thursday's 0.5581 low has printed higher lows into this week. Tuesday's Asia-to-London leg cleared Monday's high and reached the 0.5689 london high as the USD softened. The NY-session spike to the 0.5699 week high, which came on the US housing misses, failed to hold. Since then price has compressed between the 0.5676 ny low and the london high, sitting just above EMA(20) near 0.5679 with RSI(14) easing to ~61 from the London peak.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56546, 0.56467
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high would invalidate the rejection read and put the 0.5700 handle in play
Failure to hold the 0.5676 ny low and EMA(20) exposes the 23.6% fib of the Thu-Tue impulse near 0.5671 and the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the tuesday low at 0.5655 and the 0.5647 week low would break the higher-low sequence
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a slide back toward 0.5650-0.5665
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC as the next USD input
Higher lows since Friday; pullback holding fib 38.2.
The Friday-to-Tuesday rally from 0.5641 was led by the London open on Friday and the Asia session today, lifting price from the 0.5652 weekly open through the 0.5689 area near the late-September highs (sept highs). During NY hours the soft US housing data drove a spike to the 0.5699 week high, but that bar closed back near 0.5686, a clear rejection. The pullback found the fib 38.2 at 0.5677 and price is holding just above EMA(20) at about 0.5681, with RSI(14) cooled to the high 50s.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56614, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the fib 38.2 at 0.5677 would break Tuesday's higher lows and expose the 0.5661 asia low
A close above the 0.5699 week high would clear the sept highs zone and the rejection wick
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y); a soft print risks a slide back toward the 0.5652 weekly open
US jobless claims on Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Friday; NY spike rejected at 0.5690–0.5700.
NZDUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since Friday's rally. Tuesday's London open cleared the 0.5675 Monday high, helped by a softer USD, Fed-hold pricing and a 2.5% GDT gain. A spike during NY hours through the 0.5690 Sept high to a 0.5699 week high was rejected, and RSI(14) near 64 marked a lower peak than the London push, a bearish divergence. Price still holds above EMA(20) at 0.5679 and the higher-low trendline from Friday's low, with the afternoon dip absorbed just above the Monday high.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5675, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 0.5650–0.5665 area in play
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high would negate the rejection and divergence read
H1 close below the 0.5675 Monday high breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the higher-low trendline near 0.5665
Weekly open at 0.5652 sits near the 38.2% rally fib retracement, the next structural floor below the trendline
US-Iran deal headlines remain a live tail risk for USD moves
Higher lows each session; breakout above prior high retested.
The Thursday-to-Tuesday impulse from 0.5591 has printed higher lows every session. Tuesday's London push cleared Friday's 0.5675 prior high, and pullbacks to 0.5676–77 held on the retest, well above the Monday low and the 0.5652 week open. Weak US housing data drove an NY-session spike to the 0.5699 Tue high that was rejected, leaving a false break of the 0.5690 late-Sept high; price holds above EMA(20) near 0.5679 with RSI(14) easing to ~58 on a soft USD.
Support: 0.5676, 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 Tue high clears the false break and the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5676 prior high on a closing basis puts the rising trendline and the 0.5659 Monday low in play
A break below the 0.5652 week open undoes this week's higher-low sequence
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% YoY / 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read around the 0.5690 Sept high
Higher highs and higher lows since Friday's 0.5641 low; NY-session rejection at the week high.
NZD/USD has stepped higher since last Wednesday's 0.5573 low. Softer US housing data and steady RBNZ hike pricing extended the run to a 0.5689 London high on Tuesday, then a 0.5699 week high early in the NY session. That spike was rejected just shy of the 0.5700 round number, and price is back near 0.5682, above a rising EMA(20) and the rising-lows trendline from Friday, with RSI(14) easing to ~61 from overbought. The Tuesday pullback has held the 0.5677 tue low, so the higher-low sequence is intact for now.
Support: 0.5677, 0.5661, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5689 london high puts the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 round number back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5677 tue low and the rising-lows trendline would print a lower-low and break the sequence since Friday
Below that, Monday's 0.5661 mon close and the 0.5652 weekly open, near the 38.2% retracement of the rally fib, are the next references
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read after a four-session run
US S&P Global PMIs on Fri 13:45 UTC could revive USD demand if they surprise higher
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 66 · price 0.56865
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 0.5591 low; Monday high broken.
The Thursday-to-Tuesday impulse from 0.5591 has added about 108 pips. Tuesday's leg cleared the Monday high at 0.5675 in early London, and the London-NY pullback held the ema20 and the Tuesday trendline near 0.5677. The NY spike to the 0.5699 Tuesday high came after soft US housing data, which kept the USD heavy, but it was rejected just shy of the 0.5700 round number and the late-September highs, leaving a long upper wick with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.5678, 0.56747, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; much of the RBNZ hike pricing is already in
An H1 close above the 0.5699 Tuesday high and the 0.5700 round number extends the uptrend beyond the late-September highs
A break of the Tuesday trendline and the ema20 near 0.5678 puts the Monday high at 0.5675 back in play as support
A return below the 0.5675 Monday high exposes the weekly open at 0.5652, near the 38.2% of the impulse fib
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling below the week high · RSI 63 · price 0.56847
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday; pausing under 0.5690.
NZD/USD has stair-stepped higher from Thursday's 0.5591 low. Tuesday's leg cleared the Monday high going into London open, helped by broad USD softness and steady RBNZ hike pricing. The London pullback held 0.5677, where ema20 meets the retest of the Monday high, and the first hour of NY lifted price back toward the 0.5689 week high. RSI(14) has eased to ~63 from above 70 at the London peak, so momentum is fading while the higher-low sequence stays intact.
Support: 0.5677, 0.56747, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56893
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5689 week high clears the late-September highs and puts 0.5700 in view
Close below ema20 and the Tuesday higher-lows line near 0.5677 exposes the Monday high at 0.5675, then the weekly open at 0.5652, where the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Tuesday impulse sits
A stall at the week high with RSI back under 50 would mark the first lower high of the week
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows; 0.5675 break being retested.
Higher lows have built steadily since Wednesday's 0.5565 low. Thursday's hot US PPI and retail sales produced only a brief dip to 0.5591, while Friday's Asia–London push and Tuesday's London-open break of the 0.5675 prior high came as the USD softened on fading Fed-hike bets. Price is consolidating just under the 0.5689 week high (the late-September highs area), with the pullback holding above the broken prior high and EMA(20) near 0.5676, RSI(14) easing to ~64, and the Monday low at 0.5659 and week open at 0.5652 marking the base of the higher-lows sequence.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5689 week high and 0.5700 round number would extend the breakout through the late-September highs
H1 close back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn Tuesday's breakout into a false break
Loss of the Monday low at 0.5659 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5652 week open
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; an in-line print risks stalling at the week high
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 61 · price 0.56794
Higher lows since Wed; Fri/Mon cap broken, retest.
H1 has printed a clean higher-low sequence since last Wednesday's 0.5565 low. The 0.5675 prior high capped both Friday's London rally and Monday's NY push before giving way at Tuesday's London open, which printed a week high at 0.5689 on broad USD softness and steady RBNZ hike pricing. Price has since eased back toward that prior high, with RSI(14) cooling from ~70 to ~61 and EMA(20) near 0.5674 converging on the same zone.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5665, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 closes back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn Tuesday's breakout into a false break
A close above the 0.5689 week high, which coincides with the late-September highs, opens the 0.5700 round number
The fib 50% at 0.5665 and the rising higher-low line near 0.5660 mark the first test if the pullback extends; the weekly open at 0.5652 sits below
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today could jolt the USD side
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read after a four-day run
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 base; pullback off 0.5689.
NZDUSD has printed a sequence of higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 base. Thursday's dip to 0.5591 held through the hot US PPI, and today's push from late Asia into the London open set a week high at 0.5689, extending a fourth straight gain on USD softness and steady RBNZ hike pricing. Price is easing through the London session but holds above EMA(20) near 0.5674, which sits on Monday's high, while RSI(14) has cooled from the high 70s to ~66 and the rising higher-lows trendline runs near 0.5663.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56519, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back below Monday's high at 0.5674 (EMA20) shifts the read from trend extension toward a range
Break of the week high at 0.5689 clears the late-September highs near 0.5690, with the 0.5700 round number next
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the weekly open at 0.5652 breaks the sequence; the Friday low at 0.5641 aligns with the 38.2% retrace of the Wed–Tue impulse
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC today and NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under week high · RSI 66 · price 0.56828
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 low; fresh high at 0.5689 at London open.
NZDUSD has built higher lows from Wednesday's 0.5565 low. Friday's swing low at 0.5641 sits on the 38.2% fib of the rally, and Monday's dips held near the weekly open at 0.5652. Tuesday's push cleared the Monday high at 0.5675 and tagged a week high of 0.5689 at the London open, close to the late-September highs. Soft USD and steady RBNZ hike pricing are behind the move. Price is holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and has eased back only slightly since the high.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56519, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the Monday high at 0.5675 would turn the London breakout into a stall under the week high
Break below the weekly open at 0.5652 and the higher-lows trendline would end the sequence of higher lows
Close above the 0.5700 round number would clear the late-September highs
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read after a four-day run
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC today, during NY hours
Higher lows each session since Wednesday; Monday's range cleared.
NZDUSD has set a higher low in every session since Wednesday's 0.5565 base. The rally's latest leg ran from Asia into London open today, clearing Friday's and Monday's 0.5675 prior high to tag 0.5689, just under the late-September high near 0.5690. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 71, a move the digest ties to soft USD and steady RBNZ hike pricing.
Support: 0.5675, 0.56519, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5690 sept high opens the 0.5700 round number
Slip back below the 0.5675 prior high would mark today's breakout as stalled
Break of the higher lows line and the 0.5652 weekly open exposes Friday's 0.5641 swing low
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC today could shift the USD side
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 76 · price 0.56878
The week's impulse ran from Wednesday's NY-session low at 0.5565 to 0.5689. Friday's London leg to 0.5675 came on lower US yields and fading Fed-hike odds. Monday stalled at the same 0.5675 prior highs, and Tuesday's Asian and early-London push broke through, taking price into the 0.5690 late-Sept high. Pullbacks have formed higher lows: 0.5641 swing low Friday, 0.5652 Monday and 0.5655 at today's day low. RSI(14) is overbought near 76, and the H1 range has compressed to about 5–6 pips per bar.
Support: 0.5675, 0.56546, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.5675 prior highs would turn today's breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising higher-lows trendline and today's 0.5655 day low would break the week's sequence of higher lows
Acceptance above the 0.5690 late-Sept high opens the 0.5700 round number
Failure below the 0.5641 swing low would put the 38.2% retrace of the week impulse near 0.5642 in play
NZ Q3 CPI (f/c 0.8% q/q) on Oct 21 at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today are nearer-term risk
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 74 · price 0.56781
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; prior high broken in Asia.
NZDUSD has fully reversed Wednesday's NY-session drop to 0.5565 and printed higher lows since, with softer US yields, fading Fed hike bets and RBNZ hike pricing underpinning the move. Tuesday's Asia session pushed through the 0.5675 prior high set Friday and Monday to a new week high at 0.5680. Price sits above EMA(20) near 0.5668 with RSI(14) in the mid-70s, overbought after a low-volatility grind, and the late-Sept high at 0.5690 sits just overhead as the next cap on the week impulse.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5668, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.5690
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5675 prior high on a retest turns the Asia breakout into a false break
H1 close above the 0.5690 sept high clears the late-Sept cap
Loss of EMA(20) and the higher-lows line near 0.5656 exposes the 0.5652 weekly open
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC today could test the low-volatility grind
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; prior high at 0.5675 being cleared.
NZD/USD has been in an uptrend since Wednesday's NY-session low at 0.5565, printing higher lows at 0.5591, the 0.5641 friday low and the 0.5652 week open as softer US yields and hawkish RBNZ messaging lifted the Kiwi. Today's Asia session pushed through the 0.5675 prior high that capped Friday and Monday, reaching a fresh week high at 0.5677, with price above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 68. The 0.5690 sept high and the 0.5700 round number sit overhead heading into Wednesday's NZ CPI.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.5675 prior high would mark today's push as a false break back into Monday's range
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 0.5652 week open would expose the 0.5641 friday low and the 38.2% retracement of the wed-tue rally near 0.5634
The 0.5690 sept high and 0.5700 round number are the next areas to watch for rejection or break
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read. A soft print risks unwinding the rally toward 0.5650 and below
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today, via the yield channel
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 63 · price 0.56762
Higher lows compressing under flat 0.5675 top.
NZDUSD has stacked higher lows off Wednesday's 0.5565 low. Thursday's hot US PPI and retail sales produced only a brief NY-session dip to 0.5591, as falling front-end yields and hawkish RBNZ messaging carried the Wednesday-to-Tuesday impulse. Supply has capped the 0.5675 area on Friday's London session and at Monday's NY open, and price is now marking a marginal new week high at 0.5677 in Tuesday's Asia session while holding above the ema20 near 0.5666, the higher-lows trendline and the weekly open at 0.5652, with RSI(14) near 63 rising alongside price rather than diverging.
Support: 0.5666, 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5690 sept high extends the higher-high sequence; repeated rejection at the 0.5675–0.5677 week high keeps the flat-top compression intact
Break of the monday low at 0.5659 and the higher-lows trendline shifts the read to a deeper pullback, with the weekly open at 0.5652 next
Failure to hold 0.5652 exposes 0.5634, the 38.2% of the Wed-Tue impulse
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read; US housing starts at 12:30 UTC today are the nearer-term risk
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 57 · price 0.56718
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 low, compressing under 0.5675.
NZD/USD has built higher lows since Wednesday's NY-session flush to 0.5565. Hot US PPI and retail sales briefly knocked it to 0.5591 on Thursday, but the pair broke higher in Friday's Asia session as front-end US yields fell. The week high at 0.5675 has now capped Friday's London push and Monday's NY high, and price is back at that level in Asia, holding above the ema20 near 0.5665 and the rising trendline near 0.5659. RSI(14) sits mid-to-high 50s with ranges compressing to about 6 pips, consistent with the pre-CPI holding pattern the digest describes.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
Loss of the ema20 and rising trendline near 0.5659 shifts the read to a broader range above the 0.5652 weekly open
A break below the 0.5641 friday low ends the higher-low sequence and brings the 38.2% retracement near 0.5633 into play
NZ Q3 CPI (f/c 0.8% QoQ) Wed 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US housing data today 12:30 UTC and PMIs Friday are secondary risk
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; equal highs capping at 0.5675.
The rebound from Wednesday's NY-session low at 0.5565, the lowest since April 2025, has built higher lows through Thursday and Friday as US yields fell. Friday's London high and Monday's NY high both met rejection at 0.5675, leaving equal highs once Treasury yields bounced. Since then price has compressed in the 0.5660s, with today's Asia high at 0.5670, holding just above EMA(20) near 0.5663 with RSI(14) around 54 and ATR shrinking. The higher-lows line from Friday's 0.5641 swing low remains intact above the weekly open at 0.5652.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 equal highs and today's 0.5670 asia high exposes the 0.5690 sept high
Loss of EMA(20) and the weekly open at 0.5652 breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 0.5641 swing low in focus
A break below the 0.5641 swing low would turn the 0.5675 equal highs into a double top and open the 0.5620 area, near the 38.2% rebound fib
US housing data at 12:30 UTC and the 10y holding near 5.13% could shift this read; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the main event risk
NZD/USD has carved higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 cycle low. Sharply lower US yields drove the rebound, and most of the gains came during Asia sessions. Two tests of the 0.5675 week high, at Friday's London high and Monday's NY high, both faded in NY hours. That leaves price compressing on EMA(20) near 0.5663 with RSI(14) back to neutral around 52.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high breaks the 0.5675 cap and opens the 0.5690 sep high
Loss of the 0.5652 weekly open and 0.5641 friday low breaks the rising lows; the rebound fib 38.2% sits near 0.5633
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) is the main risk to this read; US housing data at 12:30 UTC today is second-tier
Higher lows from 0.5565; equal highs capping at 0.5675.
The Wednesday-to-Friday rally off the 0.5565 cycle low has printed a clean sequence of higher lows, driven by sharply lower US yields, but Friday's London push and Monday's NY session both stalled at 0.5675, leaving equal highs as the cap. Monday's rebounding Treasury yields kept upside contained, and price has since held the mon ny low near 0.5659. It now sits just above EMA(20) around 0.5664 in a narrow Asian range, with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR compressing well below Friday's impulse pace.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56519, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5675 equal highs opens the path toward the 0.5690 late-September highs (sept highs)
Failure to hold the mon ny low at 0.5659 and the weekly open at 0.5652 breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the friday low at 0.5641
Loss of 0.5641 puts the Wednesday-to-Friday rally fib 38.2% near 0.5633 in view
NZ Q3 CPI due Wed 21:45 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.8%), with ~80% RBNZ hike odds priced, could materially shift this read
A further rebound in US Treasury yields could keep the equal highs at 0.5675 intact