NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Sideways, rally from London faded · RSI 60 · price 0.5664
Lower highs off 0.5675 rejection; early Asia compressing in a tight 0.5659–0.5665 range.
London swept the Asian low to 0.5652, then rallied to a 0.5675 session high, helped by the China GDP beat. Three NY tests of that high were rejected as US yields firmed, and price faded to a 0.5659 NY low near the 61.8% retracement of the London rally. Early Asia is pinned between that low and a 0.5665 range top, with ATR around 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5670, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 range top opens a retest of the 0.5670 round number and the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 London low
Tue US housing starts and permits, plus moves in the 10y yield, could break the Asian range; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the larger event risk
23:32 UTC
Pullback from NY high, flat in early Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.56624
Lower high below 0.5675, compressing 0.5660–0.5665.
London dipped through the Asian low to the 0.5652 london low, then rallied to a 0.5675 session high, which capped three NY attempts as rising US yields offset China's GDP beat. Price has since slid to the 0.5659 ny low and is compressing between that low and the 0.5665 swing high in early Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 2 pips.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56651, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 ny low takes price beyond the 61.8% fib of the London-NY rally and exposes the 0.5652 london low
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, QoQ f/c 0.8%) is the next major catalyst for this pair; Tuesday's US housing data is a nearer-term input
23:16 UTC
Sideways after NY-session pullback from 0.5675 · RSI 55 · price 0.56629
Tight post-NY range 0.5659-0.5665 below a lower-high sequence.
London broke the Asian range and NY extended to a 0.5675 day high before rejection as Treasury yields rebounded, dropping price to a 0.5659 NY low near the 61.8% retracement. Since then it has compressed into a 6-pip range below 0.5665 range top, sitting at the 50% level in thin early-Asia trade. The 0.5655 rollover print is a spread spike, not structure.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56651, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5665 range top reopens the 0.5675 day high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 london low
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst; positioning into it may keep Asia ranges compressed
US yield moves remain the main intraday driver capping the Kiwi
23:02 UTC
Sideways after a faded London rally · RSI 59 · price 0.56635
Tight 0.5659–0.5665 range inside the London rally.
London lifted NZD from the 0.5652 london low to a 0.5675 session high on the China GDP beat. Rejection there through NY as US yields firmed sent price back to the 0.5659 ny low, around the 61.8% of the london rally fib. Since then price has been compressed under a 0.5665 range top into the Asia open. The rollover wick to 0.5655 came on thin liquidity.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 range top breaks the post-NY compression and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Loss of the 0.5659 ny low and the london rally fib 61.8% exposes the 0.5652 london low
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the main event risk; Tuesday's US housing data during NY hours could move yields and the pair first
22:47 UTC
Sideways after an intraday top · RSI 56 · price 0.56628
Triple top at 0.5675, now a tight range at 0.5659–0.5665.
London broke above the Asian high and stalled at the 0.5675 session high, failing there three times into the NY open as US 10y yields firmed. NY then broke the 0.5664–0.5665 shelf and printed a 0.5659 NY low. Early Asia is compressing just above the 50% retrace of the London rally, and ATR(14) is near 2 pips.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5665 broken shelf reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 61.8% retrace and the 0.5652 London low
Further rise in US 10y yields above 5.13% keeps pressure on the 0.5659 NY low
Triple top at 0.5675, lower lows to 0.5659, tight 0.5659–0.5665 box since mid-NY.
The London-NY rally from the 0.5652 london low, carried by the China GDP beat, stalled at a 0.5675 session high. Three rejections there, as the US 10y yield rebounded, preceded a slide to the 0.5659 ny low. Since then, price has compressed in a 2–3 pip ATR box under the 0.5665 range top into early Asia, sitting on the 50% retracement of that rally.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 range top reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 ny low exposes the 61.8% retrace near 0.5660 and the 0.5652 london low
Thin post-rollover Asia liquidity; a US 10y yield move from 5.13% is the main near-term driver, NZ CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is beyond this window
22:17 UTC
Pullback from session high, now flat · RSI 54 · price 0.56626
Lower highs from 0.5675, NY low 0.5659 holding, tight 0.5660–0.5665 band.
The China GDP-led rally from the 0.5652 London low topped at the 0.5675 session high early in NY hours. A rebound in US yields then capped NZD into a series of lower highs down to the 0.5659 NY low. Price has since compressed between 0.5660 and the 0.5665 lower high into the Asia session, sitting near the 50% retrace of the London move. The 21:00 UTC rollover print to 0.5655 was spread noise, not structure.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 lower high reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 London low and the full retrace
US 10y yield rebound remains the main cap; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major event risk
22:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, now flat · RSI 50 · price 0.56616
Lower highs off 0.5675 session high, tight coil 0.5659–0.5665.
The China GDP-led rally from the 0.5652 London low stalled at the 0.5675 session high, with three rejections there in early NY as US yields rebounded. NY then faded to a 0.5659 NY low. Early Asia session is coiling between that low and the 0.5665 late-NY high, near the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 London low
Reclaim of the 0.5665 late-NY high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Rebound in US 10y yields remains the main cap on NZD intraday
21:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, now flat · RSI 46 · price 0.56614
Lower highs from session high; tight late-NY range at 61.8% retrace.
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.5662 and ran to a 0.5675 session high. Repeated tests there drew rejection around the NY open as the US 10y yield rebound capped NZD, and NY broke down to a 0.5659 NY low. Price has since compressed in a 0.5659–0.5665 range, sitting near the 61.8% retrace of the London rally and below the lower highs line.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56651, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 NY low breaks the late-NY range and exposes the 0.5652 London low
M15 close above the 0.5665 range top clears the lower highs line, with the 0.5675 session high next
Rollover and thin early Asia session trade can distort ranges; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (~48h) is the larger event risk
Lower high under 0.5675, tight 0.5660-0.5665 coil.
The London-NY rally, carried by the China GDP beat, ran into supply at the 0.5675 session high three times. The rebound in US yields then drove a NY sell-off to the 0.5659 NY low. Since then price has coiled 0.5660-0.5665 under the 0.5665 lower high into the Asia open, with only a thin rollover spike to 0.5655 breaking the calm.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56651, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 lower high breaks the NY sell-off trendline and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 London low
US 10y yield moves around 5.13% remain the main driver while the NZ calendar is quiet in the next 8h
NZD rallied through London into NY after the China GDP beat, stalling three times at the 0.5675 session high as US yields rebounded. The triple top resolved through the 0.5665 neckline to a 0.5659 NY low. Price now coils 0.5660-0.5665 at EMA20 into the Asia open, with the bounce capped near the 38.2% retracement and the rollover bar's thin-liquidity wick to 0.5655 already reclaimed.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56651, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence toward the 0.5652 london low
Reclaim of the 0.5665 neckline (38.2% retrace) negates the lower highs and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Asia session opens thin after rollover; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major catalyst
Lower highs since 14:00 UTC peak, compressing 0.5660–0.5665.
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.5665 on China GDP-led risk support. Price topped at the 0.5675 session high early in NY, then a firmer US 10y yield pulled it back to a 0.5659 NY low through a series of lower highs. Price is now compressing in a 0.5660–0.5665 pocket on the 61.8% retracement of the London leg, with ATR down to ~2 pips.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56651, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5665 (post-ny high) breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 ny low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5652 london low
Thin Asia session liquidity; US 10y yield moves around 5.13% remain the main trigger for a break of the 0.5660–0.5665 pocket
Lower highs off session high, late-NY range 0.5660–0.5665.
London cleared the asian high at 0.5665 and printed a 0.5675 session high on the China GDP and risk-on lift. NY then faded it to the 0.5659 ny low as US yields rebounded, carving lower highs. Late NY is compressing at 0.5660–0.5665 near the 61.8% of the London rally fib, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR down to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low extends the lower-highs sequence toward the 0.5652 london low
Close back above the 0.5665 asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Thin liquidity into the Asia session open can produce outsized moves relative to the 2-pip ATR
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 49 · price 0.56613
London broke Asian high; NY rejected 0.5675, now tight range above 0.5659.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5665 on the China GDP beat and risk-on tone, peaking at a 0.5675 session high early in NY. Rebounding US yields drove a rejection there back to a 0.5659 NY low, near the 61.8% retrace of the London-low rally. Late NY is drifting in a 5-pip band below the descending line off the high, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516, 0.56467
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low exposes the 0.5652 london low, then the 0.5647 asian low
Reclaiming the 0.5665 asian high and the descending line off the session high re-opens 0.5675
Thin Asia session open ahead, no scheduled data in the next 8h. NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger risk to this read
20:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after London-NY high, now flat · RSI 47 · price 0.56615
Lower highs off 0.5675, coiling 0.5660–0.5665 late NY.
The China GDP beat carried NZD from the 0.5652 London low through the 0.5665 Asian high to a 0.5675 session high, where four tests during the London-NY transition were rejected as rebounding US yields capped the move. Late NY pulled back to a 0.5659 NY low near the 61.8% retrace of the London leg. Price is now coiling between 0.5660 and 0.5665, below the lower-high trendline, with ATR compressed near 2 pips.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 Asian high and the lower-high trendline ends the pullback read
Loss of the 0.5659 NY low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5652 London low
Retest of the 0.5675 session high is where the rejection read gets tested again
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift the read during the next NY session
20:02 UTC
Intraday pullback after London rally · RSI 44 · price 0.56608
Lower highs below the session high, compressing above the NY low.
The London rally from the 0.5652 London low, helped by risk-on after China's GDP beat, stalled in a triple top at the 0.5675 session high as US yields rebounded. NY then broke the 0.5664 neckline down to the 0.5659 NY low. Late NY is compressing at 0.5660–0.5665, sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the London rally fib and below a lower-high sequence.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 London low
Recovery through the 0.5665 lower high negates the post-top compression and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Thin early Asia session liquidity; the US 10y yield rebound remains the main cap on the pair
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the next major driver of RBNZ hike pricing
Lower highs below 0.5675 NY high, compressing 0.5659-0.5665.
Risk-on and the China GDP beat carried NZD from the 0.5652 london low to a 0.5675 ny high, where three tests drew rejection as US yields firmed. The pullback held the 0.5659 session low near the 61.8% retrace, and late NY is now coiling under a 0.5665 lower high with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 session low exposes the 0.5652 london low
Break of the 0.5665 lower high and descending trendline reopens the 0.5675 ny high
US 10y yield rebound remains the cap; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
Rejection at 0.5675 session high, holding above 0.5659 ny low.
London cleared the asian high near 0.5665, and NY pushed to a 0.5675 session high on the China GDP risk-on bid. Price was rejected there three times and faded to the ny low at 0.5659, near the 61.8% retrace. It is now compressing at 0.5660–0.5665 on the rising trendline from the london low as late NY winds down.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low breaks the rising trendline and opens the london low at 0.5652
Reclaim of the 0.5665 asian high shifts focus back to the 0.5675 session high
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the main event risk; ranges likely stay tight into it
Lower highs off 0.5675 session high, basing above 0.5659 NY low.
London lifted NZD from the 0.5652 London low to a 0.5675 session high on the China GDP beat and risk-on tone. Three NY attempts were rejected at 0.5674–0.5675 as US yields firmed, and the pair slid to the 0.5659 NY low. Late NY now compresses in a tight 0.5659–0.5665 band below the 0.5665 lower high, sitting near the 61.8% retracement of the London leg with ATR down to ~2.6 pips.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56651, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 NY low opens the path to the 0.5652 London low
Reclaim of the 0.5665 lower high breaks the descending lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5675 session high back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity may keep price pinned inside the 0.5659–0.5665 band
Lower highs since 0.5675 peak, tight 0.5659–0.5665 range post-NY.
London swept the Asian low into a 0.5652 london low, then the China GDP and risk-on bid carried NY to a 0.5675 session high. Rebounding US yields have since pulled price back to the 61.8% fib near 0.5660, and it is now compressing between the 0.5659 swing low and a 0.5665 lower high after NY close, below both EMAs with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 swing low, beyond the 61.8% fib, exposes the 0.5652 london low
Thin Asia session open with no scheduled data in the next 8h. NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21 Oct 21:45 UTC is the next major risk
London breakout above Asian high, rejected at 0.5675, now consolidating 0.5659–0.5665.
London lifted NZD through the 0.5662 Asian high on the China GDP beat and risk-on tone, peaking at the 0.5675 session high early in NY hours before rebounding US yields drove a fade to the 0.5659 NY low. Late NY is now holding a tight 0.5659–0.5665 box near the 61.8% retracement of the London leg. Lower highs are capping it from 0.5675, and RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low exposes the 0.5652 london low and the leg's origin
Close above the 0.5665 ny cap and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5675 session high
Thin Asia session liquidity can stretch the current 0.5659–0.5665 box
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) remains the dominant event risk for this read
Lower highs below 0.5675, holding a 0.5659–0.5665 band late in NY.
London broke above the Asian high at 0.5665, helped by China's GDP beat and risk-on tone. Supply capped the move at the 0.5675 session high in early NY as US yields rebounded. Price has since printed lower highs and is compressing between the 0.5659 NY low and 0.5665, sitting in the 50–61.8% retrace of the London-NY leg.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low exposes the 0.5652 london low and full retrace of the London-NY leg
Close back above the 0.5665 asian high breaks the lower highs line and puts the 0.5675 session high back in play
No scheduled data in the next 8h. US yields and risk tone set direction into NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC
Lower highs off 0.5675, higher low holding above the London low.
NZD rallied from the 0.5652 London low to a 0.5675 session high into early NY on the China GDP beat and risk-on tone. The session high was rejected three times, and price slid to a 0.5659 swing low, near the 61.8% fib, as US yields rebounded. Late NY is now coiling at 0.5660–0.5665 under a line of lower highs, below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56707, 0.56747, 0.5669
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5671 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5675 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5659 swing low opens a retest of the 0.5652 London low
Late-September highs near 0.5690 are the cap flagged by the digest above the session high
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the larger driver of the next directional leg
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5665 on the back of the China GDP beat and ran to a 0.5675 session high, which was rejected on three tests in NY as US yields bounced. The pullback found demand at the 0.5659 NY low near the 61.8% fib, and price is now retesting the 0.5665 Asian high from below, under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5665 Asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 London low and unwinds the Asian range break
Thin Asia session ahead with no scheduled data; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the main event risk for this structure
17:47 UTC
Intraday pullback after an earlier rally · RSI 41 · price 0.56636
Lower highs from the 0.5675 session high, holding above the 0.5659 NY low.
London broke above the Asian range from the 0.5652 london low, with NZD supported by the China GDP beat. NY was capped five times at the 0.5675 session high, and the rejection gave way to a lower high at 0.5670 and a dip to the 0.5659 ny low. Late NY price is chopping near 0.5664, roughly the 50% retrace of the London rally, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56707, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5670 lower high would void the lower-high sequence and put the 0.5675 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5659 ny low would extend the rally retrace toward the 0.5652 london low
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, QoQ f/c 0.8%) is the next major input; little scheduled risk for the remainder of NY
Lower highs since 0.5675 session high, compressing above NY low.
London took the China GDP-driven bid from the 0.5652 London low to a 0.5675 session high early in NY, where it met rejection. NY hours then printed a chain of lower highs down to the 0.5659 NY low, near the 61.8% retrace of the London rally. Late-NY price is compressing at 0.5659–0.5664, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56636, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5652 london low
Reclaiming the 0.5664 lower high and the lower highs trendline reopens the 0.5675 session high
Calendar is light into the Asia session; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major input for this pair
17:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, pulling back in late NY · RSI 36 · price 0.56612
Lower highs off the 0.5675 session high; back at the Asian high.
The China GDP beat helped lift NZD out of the Asian range through London, and the move topped at a 0.5675 session high early in NY. That high was rejected on repeated tests, and the lower high at 0.5671 has since pulled price back to retest the 0.5662 Asian high, near the 61.8% fib of the London leg. RSI(14) is near 36 and price sits below both EMAs, with the NY low at 0.5659 just underneath.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56707, 0.56747
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 london low and erases the London leg
Recovery back through the 0.5671 lower high breaks the NY downtrend line
Fresh push through the 0.5675 session high invalidates the rejection read
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing data is the next scheduled input; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the larger event risk
London cleared the Asian range high on China's GDP beat and ran to a 0.5675 session high, but three tests there were capped. The NY session broke the 0.5664 shelf and printed a 0.5659 NY low near the 61.8% of the London leg as a steadier USD on firmer yields took the edge off; RSI(14) is near 39 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low extends the pullback beyond the 61.8% of the London leg and exposes the 0.5652 London low and the 0.5650 Asian low
An M15 close back above the 0.5664 broken shelf neutralises the triple top read, with the 0.5675 session high still the cap
Thin flows after London close keep the 4-5 pip ATR in play; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major input
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, lower highs since NY open · RSI 41 · price 0.56617
0.5664–0.5675 range broken lower after London close.
London lifted NZD out of the Asian range on the China GDP beat, running to a 0.5675 session high. Four NY-session rejections there gave way to lower highs and a break of the 0.5664 floor to a 0.5659 NY low. Price is now holding between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the London leg, RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5664 broken low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.5659 NY low exposes the 0.5652 london low and the full London leg
Lower highs trendline from the 0.5675 session high caps the bounce while intact
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the main event risk for this structure
16:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after London rally · RSI 39 · price 0.56607
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5675 session high.
London lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5652 london low to a 0.5675 session high on the China GDP beat and a softer USD. Repeated rejection at 0.5674–0.5675 formed a triple top, and NY has since printed lower highs and slipped through the 0.5664 broken shelf. Price now sits at 0.5660, the 61.8% retrace of the London leg, with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5664 broken shelf negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5659 pullback low exposes the 0.5652 london low
A break above the 0.5675 session high voids the triple top read
Flow thins after NY close; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major event risk
London break of the Asian high, capped at 0.5675, now back below 0.5665.
Monday's China GDP-led bid took the pair through the 0.5665 asian high in London to a 0.5675 session high, which capped three tests into the NY open. Price has since fallen through the 0.5664 NY floor and back below the asian high, sitting between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 0.5652–0.5675 london leg fib. RSI(14) is near 42.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.5660 round number keeps the London higher-low sequence intact; a break exposes the 0.5652 london low
M15 close back above the 0.5665 asian high negates the range break and puts the 0.5675 session high back in play
No scheduled data in the next few hours; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the main event risk this week
15:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back in late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.56633
Lower highs from NY session high, back below the Asian high.
London open swept the Asian range low to 0.5652 (london low). A China GDP beat then drove a break of the 0.5665 asian high and a NY session high at 0.5675. Two lower highs near 0.5671 and the 0.5670 lower high have since pulled price back under the asian high to the 50% fib of the day's leg at 0.5663, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5665 asian high and the 0.5670 lower high reopens the 0.5675 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5660 london base (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.5652 london low and erases the London-NY leg
No scheduled NZD/USD events in the next 8h; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major risk for this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling in NY range · RSI 49 · price 0.56682
NY range 0.5664–0.5675 above broken Asian high.
London opened with a sweep of the Asian low at 0.5652, then broke the Asian high near 0.5662, with the China GDP beat and a soft USD behind the leg to the 0.5675 session high. NY has since ranged 0.5664–0.5675. The session high was rejected three times, while the NY low held twice near the 38.2% retrace of the London leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 49, and price is sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 0.56645, 0.5662, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5664 NY low opens the 50% retrace and the old Asian high at 0.5662
Close above the 0.5675 session high breaks the NY range and puts the 0.5690 sept high in view
Loss of 0.5662 would put the London leg's origin at the 0.5652 Asian low back in play
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major input; no scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h
Asian range breakout under retest; flat top at 0.5675, London trendline broken.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5665, helped by China's GDP beat and a soft USD, but stalled at the 0.5675 session high on four tests through the NY open. The 15:00 bar broke the London uptrend line and price is now back at the Asian high, which lines up with EMA50 and the 38.2% fib near 0.5666, with RSI(14) at ~46.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5664 puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.5652 London low
Close above the 0.5675 session high reopens the path to the 0.5690 late-Sept high (sept high)
London close may thin price action and leave NY to hold or lose the Asian high
15:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 49 · price 0.56682
Asian range broken higher in London; 0.5665–0.5675 range since late London.
London cleared the 0.5662 Asian high and ran to a 0.5675 session high. Supply has capped that high three times across the London-NY transition and the first hour of NY, and price at 0.5668 now sits on the rising trendline from the 0.5652 London low, with RSI(14) back to neutral near 49. China's Q3 GDP beat underpins NZD.
Support: 0.56645, 0.5662, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5665 range low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 0.5662 Asian high back in play as a retest
Close above the 0.5675 session high clears the triple cap and opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
Loss of the Asian high exposes the London leg 50% retracement near 0.5663, then the 0.5652 London low
No scheduled risk in the next 8h; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major input
Higher lows since London open, flat 0.5675 ceiling in NY.
After a London-open dip to the 0.5652 london low, NZD climbed through the 0.5662 asian high to a 0.5675 session high, with China's Q3 GDP beat supporting antipodean demand. Through NY hours the pair has compressed in a 0.5665–0.5675 band. The session high has capped four tests, while the NY low near 0.5665 has held on rising lows.
Support: 0.56645, 0.5662, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 session high opens the path toward the 0.5690 sept highs
Break of the 0.5665 ny low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.5662 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5652 london low negates the intraday uptrend
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major catalyst; no scheduled events in the next 8h
London swept the Asian low into 0.5652 (london low), then built a higher-low climb through the 0.5662 breakout lvl as the China GDP beat lifted antipodeans. NY has compressed under the 0.5675 session high, with sharp dips to the 0.5665 ny swing low bought back. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.56645, 0.56625, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 session high opens the 0.5690 sept highs
Break of the 0.5665 ny swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5662 breakout lvl, near the 50% of the London-NY leg
US housing data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC and NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC are the next event risks for this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 57 · price 0.56719
London HL chain from 0.5652; NY range 0.5665–0.5675.
London opened with a sweep of the asian low at 0.5652, then climbed steadily and cleared the 0.5663 break base mid-session. The China GDP beat and a softer USD are underpinning the move. In the first hour of NY, price has stalled under the 0.5675 session high after four tests; dips to the 0.5665 ny low were absorbed quickly, holding near the 38.2% fib.
Support: 0.56645, 0.56625, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 session high opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
Loss of the 0.5665 ny low and the london uptrend line exposes the 0.5662 break base, the 50% fib zone
A break below the 0.5652 asian low negates the London uptrend
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US tech equities and front-end yields are driving USD intraday
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major catalyst
Higher lows since the London sweep; triple test of 0.5675.
London open swept the Asian low to the 0.5652 London low, then a higher-low chain carried price through the 0.5669 Friday high. NY dips to the 0.5665 NY low were absorbed and the pair is retesting the 0.5675 session high a third time, RSI(14) near 61, with a softer USD and China's GDP beat behind the move.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56645, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 session high opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
M15 close below the 0.5665 NY low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday HL chain; the 38.2% fib sits at the same area
Loss of the 0.5669 Friday high puts the 0.5652 London low back in view; USD tone is tied to tech-equity moves, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
13:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at day high · RSI 55 · price 0.56668
London HL chain from 0.56516; three tests of 0.5674 rejected, trendline broken at NY open.
London cleared the Asian range top near 0.5662 and the fri high at 0.56693, reaching a day high of 0.56745 as the softer USD and China's GDP beat lifted NZD. The first hour of NY rejected the day high a third time and cut through the London trendline. Price is holding the ny low at 0.56645, around the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) cooling to ~55.
Support: 0.56645, 0.56603, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56693, 0.56745, 0.5690
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.56645 ny low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.5660, then the london low at 0.56516
An M15 close back above the 0.56693 fri high reopens the 0.56745 day high; clearing it brings the 0.5690 sept high into view
No scheduled data in the next 8h; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major catalyst
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.5662 and the fri high at 0.5669, helped by China's GDP beat and a soft USD. The 12:30 UTC dip to the 0.56655 swing low acted as a retest. Early NY hours are printing a session high of 0.56745, but each push extends only a pip or two and RSI(14) has cooled to about 62.
Support: 0.5669, 0.56655, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56745, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5669 fri high and the 0.56655 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
A close above the 0.56745 session high opens the path to the sept high near 0.5690
Losing the rising trendline from the 0.56516 london low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone around 0.5660
US tech-equity swings and front-end yields are the main USD driver into NY hours
Higher lows from 0.5652 London low; Asian high breakout retested and held.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5665 and Friday's high at 0.5669, building a higher-low chain off the 0.5652 London low. The dip into the first hour of NY held at 0.5666 as a retest of the breakout before a fresh session high at 0.5674. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips, with a softer USD and China's GDP beat keeping NZD firm.
Support: 0.56693, 0.5665, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56744, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5665 Asian high negates the breakout retest
Break of the rising trendline from the London low at 0.5652 ends the higher-low chain
50% of the London leg sits at 0.5663, just under the Asian high
Rejection at the 0.5674 session high leaves price capped below the late-September high near 0.5690
US tech equities and front-end yields are driving the USD leg; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
13:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, holding near session high · RSI 65 · price 0.56706
Higher-low chain from the London low, Asian high and Friday high both cleared.
London's early dip to 0.5652 (london low) held, and a steady higher-low chain on the rising trendline then took out the 0.5662 Asian high and the 0.5669 Friday high. The rally printed a session high at 0.5674 on a soft USD and the China GDP beat. The pullback late in the London-NY transition held at 0.5666 (pullback low), right at the 38.2% of the London leg, and price is back at 0.5671 in the first hour of NY.
Support: 0.5669, 0.56655, 0.5662
Resistance: 0.56738, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5666 pullback low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.5674 session high opens the path to the late-September high near 0.5690 (sept high)
Return below the 0.5662 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
US tech equities and 2-year yields remain the main USD driver into NY hours
HH/HL chain from the London low, rejected at session high.
London held the 0.5652 london low and climbed through the 0.5670 friday high to a 0.5674 session high, extending the NZD gains seen after China's GDP beat. The 12:30 UTC bar rejected that high and dropped to 0.5665, the 38.2% fib of the London leg. Price is now back below the friday high, and RSI(14) has cooled from the low 70s to about 57.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5660, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5674, 0.5690
What it said to watch
A hold of the 38.2% fib at 0.5665 keeps the HL chain intact. A break of the 61.8% fib at 0.5660 points to a deeper fade toward the london low.
An M15 close back above the 0.5674 session high opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high.
Price is back below the 0.5670 friday high. Failure to reclaim it during NY hours marks the breakout as a false break.
There is no scheduled data in the next 8h. NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next event that could materially shift this read.
Higher lows since London low; Asian range and Friday high broken.
London cleared the Asian range top near 0.5665 and Friday's 0.5669 prior high, printing a 0.5674 session high into the London-NY transition, with dips to 0.5668 holding as a retest. The bid tracks the China GDP beat and a soft USD; RSI(14) near 67 is firm without being stretched.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5669 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.5660 london base
Break of the london trendline, then 0.5652 london low, would end the higher-low sequence
Clearance of the 0.5674 session high leaves the late-September high near 0.5690 (sept high) as the next reference
NY session USD flows around the open could shift the pullback depth toward the 38.2–50% zone of the London leg fib (~0.5665–0.5663)
HH/HL chain from the 0.5652 London low, now above Friday's high.
London briefly undercut the Asian range lows at the 0.5652 London low, then stair-stepped higher. A push off the 0.5662 break base cleared Friday's 0.5669 prior high, and the pair is holding near the 0.5673 session high into the London-NY transition. Softer USD and China's GDP beat are behind the third straight gain; RSI(14) near 72 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56625, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56729, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5669 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5662 break base and the London rally trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Clearance of the 0.5673 session high puts the late-September high near 0.5690 (sept high) in view
NY open flows: no scheduled US data today, so USD direction rests on equity and yield moves
US housing data Tue 12:15 UTC and NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Higher lows since London low; Friday high broken, now being retested.
Early London faded the 0.5665 open high and swept the 0.5652 Asian low. The pair then rallied in higher lows through Friday's 0.5669 high to a 0.56725 session high, helped by a soft USD and China's Q3 GDP beat. Late in the London morning, price is sitting on the Friday high breakout with RSI(14) near 71 and the London rising support trendline below.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56656, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56725, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5669 Friday high turns the breakout into a false break
A move through the 0.56725 session high brings the 0.5690 late-Sep high into view
Loss of the 0.5665 open high and the London rising support reopens the 0.5652 Asian low; the 50% London rally fib sits near 0.5662
NY open and the USD tone from AI-equity flows could shift the read; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the larger event risk
Higher-low chain since London open; Asian high and Friday high broken.
London built a higher-low chain off the 0.5652 london low. It broke the 0.5665 asian high and Friday's 0.5669 high, then printed a 0.5673 session high late morning, with RSI(14) near 77. The move tracks a soft USD and China's Q3 GDP beat, and the 0.5690 late-Sep high is the next reference above.
Support: 0.56693, 0.5665, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.56725, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5673 session high opens the path to the 0.5690 sep high
Failure to hold the 0.5669 friday high, followed by a close below the 0.5665 asian high, returns price to the overnight range
A break of the london trendline (~0.5666) ends the higher-low sequence
NY open and the US AI-equity tone are the next USD drivers; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the larger event risk
Higher lows since London-open sweep; breakout from 0.5660-0.5664 box.
London opened with a sweep under the Asian range low to the 0.5652 london low, then reversed into a higher-low chain as China's GDP beat and a soft USD lifted the Kiwi. The 10:30 UTC breakout through the 0.5664 breakout lvl has price pressing Friday's high at 0.5670 mid-London, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5660, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 friday high opens the 0.5690 late-sep high
Slip back under the 0.5664 breakout lvl and the 0.5660 range low puts the breakout at risk of a false break
Loss of the London rising trendline exposes the 0.5652 london low; NY-session US equity tone is the main USD driver today
Higher lows since London low, Asian range broken to upside.
London swept below the Asian range to the 0.5652 London low before reversing. The climb has since cleared the 0.5650–0.5662 Asian range on soft USD and China's GDP beat, and now tests Friday's twin highs at the 0.5670 prior high with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5670 prior high clears Friday's twin tops and opens the path to the 0.5690 Sep high
Rejection at 0.5670 and a slip back under the 0.5662 Asian high returns price to the Asian range
Break of the London trendline and the 0.5652 London low negates the higher-low sequence
Higher-low grind back toward the session high inside a 0.5650–0.5666 Monday range.
London open spiked to the 0.5666 session high above the Asian range, then reversed to the 0.5652 london low within 45 minutes, sweeping both sides of the Asian range. Price has since built higher lows near 0.5659 and recovered roughly 78% of the London drop on the fib, helped by soft USD and China's Q3 GDP beat. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5659, 0.56516, 0.56495
Resistance: 0.56656, 0.56693
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 session high opens the 0.5669 friday high
Loss of the 0.5659 higher lows shelf puts the 0.5652 london low and 0.5650 asian low back in play
No scheduled NZD/USD data before the NY session; US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC is the next event risk
Higher-low chain from 0.5652 compressing under the 0.5666 session high.
After the London-open rejection at the 0.5666 session high, demand held the 0.5652 london low and has printed four higher lows since, with highs capped near 0.5664 in mid-London. A soft USD and China's Q3 GDP beat explain the firm tone. RSI(14) at 57 is neutral, and ATR near 3.7 pips shows tight conditions.
Support: 0.5661, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5666 session high clears the London-open rejection and opens 0.5675 friday high
Break of the higher-low trendline and 0.5661 returns price to the 0.5652–0.5666 range
Loss of the 0.5652 london low exposes the 0.5641 friday low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next event risk
09:47 UTC
Intraday grind higher inside a tight range · RSI 59 · price 0.56628
Rising lows from the London low, pressing the session high.
London open pushed through the Asian range high near 0.5662 to a 0.5666 session high. Price was rejected there and fell to a 0.5652 london low, then built rising lows back to the top as the USD stayed soft. Mid-London, price sits just under the session high with a micro hl at 0.5659 beneath it. RSI(14) is 59 and ATR is about 4 pips, so this is a quiet grind with no extremes.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 session high opens the 0.5669 fri ny high, then the 0.5675 friday high
Close below the 0.5659 micro hl breaks the rising lows and reopens the 0.5652 london low
Failure to hold 0.5652 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5641 friday low
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; USD/AI-equity sentiment is the driver, with NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC the next major risk
Monday range 0.5650–0.5666; higher low at 0.5658 after London false break.
London open made a false break above the Asian range high, tagging the 0.5666 session high before reversing to the 0.5652 London low. The London rebound has since retraced most of that drop, leaving a higher low at 0.5658, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 4 pips. China's Q3 GDP beat and a soft USD are keeping dips shallow, and price is still inside the 0.5650–0.5666 range.
Support: 0.56578, 0.56516, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56656, 0.5675, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 session high breaks the Monday range and opens the path to the 0.5675 Friday high, then the 0.5690 late-Sept high
Failure to hold the 0.5658 higher low returns price to the 0.5652 London low; a break there exposes the 0.5641 Friday low
No NZD/USD data in the next 8h; US housing data Tue and NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC are the next risks to this read
09:16 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 55 · price 0.56603
0.5652–0.5665 range, false break at the high.
Mid-London, the London push above the Asian high was rejected at the 0.5665 london high, and the follow-through drop found demand at the 0.5652 asian lows for a third time. Price has since retraced about 85% of the london drop and sits on 0.5660 psych, with a soft USD on Fed pause bets and China's GDP beat underpinning the bounce. RSI(14) is neutral at 55 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 london high opens the 0.5669 fri swing hi and the 0.5675 prior-day hi
Failure to hold the 0.5652 asian lows exposes the 0.5641 friday low
Slipping back below 0.5660 psych keeps price in the lower half of the range
No scheduled data in the next 8h; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major risk to the range
09:05 UTC
Sideways, recovering after London dip · RSI 53 · price 0.56603
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662, false break above in early London.
London open briefly broke the asian high at 0.5662 and printed a london high at 0.5666, then was rejected. The drop reached a london low at 0.5652, just above the asian low, before a sharp recovery to 0.5660 that has retraced about 62% of the drop. The China GDP beat and a soft USD are keeping dips shallow, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price back inside the Asian range.
Support: 0.56516, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56656, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 london high breaks the session range and puts the 0.5675 friday high in view
Failure at the asian high 0.5662 again keeps the range read and the false break intact
Loss of the 0.5652 london low and 0.5650 asian low reopens the 0.5641 friday low
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h, so USD/Fed-pause tone and risk sentiment drive the session
08:46 UTC
Intraday range, recovering toward range top · RSI 55 · price 0.56618
London false break above Asian high, Asian low held, price back near 0.5662.
London open pushed briefly through the Asian high to a 0.5666 session high, then reversed to retest the 0.5652 Asian low. That low held and price has retraced about 75% of the London drop to 0.5662, back at the top of the Asian range, with a soft USD on firm Fed pause pricing and China's GDP beat underpinning NZD.
Support: 0.56516, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56656, 0.56693
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 session high reopens the 0.5669 Friday NY high (friday ny hi)
Failure at the 0.5666 session high leaves the false break intact and keeps the 0.5652–0.5666 range in play
Close below the 0.5652 Asian low exposes the 0.5641 Friday low
London drop fib: a slip back under the 50% level near 0.5659 would undercut the rebound
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662 holding after London false break.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 0.5662 to a 0.5666 London high, then met rejection and flushed to a 0.5652 London low, just above the Asian low. Buyers stepped back in and price sits mid-range near 0.5660, past the 61.8% retrace of Friday's NY drop from the 0.5669 Friday high to the 0.5641 Friday low. China's GDP beat and a soft USD are cushioning dips.
Support: 0.56516, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56656, 0.56693
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 London high breaks the Asian-range read and puts the 0.5669 Friday high in play
Loss of the 0.5652 London low and 0.5650 Asian low exposes the 0.5641 Friday low
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h. Fed-pricing headlines drive the USD side; NZ Q3 CPI is Wed 21:45 UTC
08:16 UTC
Sideways, no directional follow-through · RSI 53 · price 0.56584
Asian range 0.5652–0.5662 intact after London-open false break both ways.
London open pushed above the Asian high to 0.5666, was rejected, then dipped to the Asian low at 0.5652 before demand returned. Price now sits at 0.5658, mid-range and on the 61.8% retrace of Friday's sell-off, with a softer USD and the China GDP beat keeping NZD supported. RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 0.56517, 0.5650, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56656, 0.56693
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 London high breaks the range to the upside and puts the 0.5669 Friday high in play
Failure to hold the 0.5652 Asian low exposes the 0.5650 round number, then the 0.5641 Friday low
Repeated rejection at the 61.8% of the Friday sell-off keeps the range read intact
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the main event risk for this pair; no scheduled releases in the next few hours
08:02 UTC
Range, upside rejected at London open · RSI 49 · price 0.56538
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662 intact after failed break higher.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 0.5662 to a 0.5666 session high, then reversed to a 0.5652 session low. That false break leaves price back inside the Asian range, sitting on the 50% fib of the Friday low-to-London high move. The China GDP beat lifted NZD in Asia, but that lift has not carried past the range top.
Support: 0.56516, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56656
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 Asian low breaks the range and puts the 0.5641 Friday low in view
Reclaim of the 0.5662 Asian high retests the 0.5666 session high and negates the rejection
Failure to hold the 0.5652 session low near the 50% fib turns the Asian session gains into a full retrace
Shift in Fed hold pricing (~84%) is the main USD driver that could break the range during NY hours
07:47 UTC
Sideways, Asian range intact · RSI 56 · price 0.5659
Asian range 0.5652–0.5662; London open false break above, rising lows.
Kiwi held firm through Asia on the China GDP beat and a soft USD. London open pushed through the Asian range high at 0.5662 to a london high of 0.5666, then rejected back to a london low of 0.5655. Price now sits at 0.5659, mid-range, with rising lows from the 0.5652 asian low still intact.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 london high reopens the 0.5675 friday high
Close below 0.5652 asian low breaks the rising lows and the range, exposing the 0.5641 friday low
Hold of 0.5655 london low keeps the false break contained inside the range
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the next major risk
London open broke above the Asian range high, then reversed back inside.
The first London bar pushed through the 0.5662 Asian high to a 0.5666 London high, then reversed back inside the range. Price is holding near 0.5657 above the 0.5655 pullback low. The Asian range had been carried by a soft USD and the China GDP beat, but the break above it found no follow-through and RSI(14) is back near 52.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5666, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5666 London high negates the false break and brings the 0.5675 Friday high into view
Loss of the 0.5655 pullback low exposes the 0.5652 Asian low; below that, the Friday low at 0.5641
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the next major catalyst for the range
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662; London-open false break above the top.
The London open pushed through the 0.5662 asia high to a 0.5666 session high, but the bar closed back at 0.5659, a false break so far. Price now sits near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg (0.5652–0.5666), above the 0.5655 swing low, with the China GDP beat and a soft USD underpinning the Asian bid. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR(14) is about 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.56553, 0.5650, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56656, 0.56693
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5666 session high negates the false break and opens the 0.5669 prior swing
Failure to hold the 0.5655 swing low returns price toward the 0.5650 asia low; below that, Friday's low at 0.5641 is next
Hormuz or French-yield headlines could revive the safe-haven USD bid seen at Monday's open
07:04 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 64 · price 0.56646
London open break above Asian range high, higher-low chain intact.
London open lifted NZDUSD through the 0.5662 Asian high to 0.5666, extending the higher-low sequence that began at the 0.5650 Asian low after China's Q3 GDP beat. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR is about 3.4 pips. The 0.5667 3wk high and the 0.5675 Friday high sit just overhead.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5667, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Holding 0.5662 on a retest keeps the Asian high break valid; a close back inside the range marks a false break
Rejection at the 0.5667 3wk high would cap the London open push; a close above opens the 0.5675 Friday high
A close below the 0.5655 swing low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain
China's Q3 GDP beat lifted the Kiwi off Friday's low at 0.5641, and Asia has held a 0.5652–0.5662 range since. Into the London open, the asian low and the 0.5655 higher low have stepped up, and price is pressing the asian high, which lines up with the 61.8% of Friday's drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, so intraday ranges are tight.
Support: 0.56553, 0.5652, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5662 asian high breaks the range and opens the 0.5667–0.5675 friday high zone.
Failure to hold the 0.5655 higher low puts the 0.5652 asian low back in play.
A break below the asian low exposes the 0.5641 friday low.
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst that could reset this range.
06:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing inside Asian range · RSI 51 · price 0.56559
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662 with higher lows under a flat session high.
Late Asia session, about 30 minutes before London open. NZD firmed on the China Q3 GDP beat but has stalled inside a 12-pip Asian range: the session high at 0.5661–0.5662 capped three times, while higher lows at the 0.5650 Asian low, then 0.5652, are compressing price into the middle near 0.5656. RSI(14) is neutral around 51, price is sitting on a flat EMA20, and ATR(14) has shrunk to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56521, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high breaks the Asian range and opens Friday's prior high at 0.5675
Loss of the 0.5652 higher low and the rising Asian higher-lows line shifts focus to the 0.5650 Asian low
Break below the 0.5650 Asian low reopens Friday's 0.5641 prior low
London open typically expands the Asian range; a break with ATR still near 3 pips would need follow-through to hold
06:16 UTC
Sideways, rising lows in Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.56565
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662 with higher lows compressing under a flat top.
The Asia session has held a 0.5647–0.5662 range after China's Q3 GDP beat. Lows have stepped higher from the 0.5647 asian low to the 0.5652 higher low, while the 0.5662 asian high capped three tests. Price sits mid-range near 0.5657 ahead of the London open, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56521, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5662 asian high breaks the range and brings the 0.5669 prior high (the three-week high zone) and the 0.5675 fri high into view
Failure to hold the 0.5652 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5647 asian low, then the 0.5641 fri low
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range holds or breaks
06:03 UTC
Sideways, mild upward tilt in Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.56578
Asia range 0.5650–0.5662, rising lows under a flat cap.
The Asia session firmed after China's Q3 GDP beat, but the 0.5662 Asian high has rejected three tests, most recently at 05:30 UTC. Rising lows at 0.5650 then 0.5652 are compressing price under that cap. RSI(14) is neutral near 55, ATR is under 3 pips, and price sits just above EMA20/50 heading into the London open.
Support: 0.56521, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56693
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 Asian high opens the 0.5669 friday swing and the 0.5667–0.5670 three-week high zone
Break of the rising lows line near 0.5652 and the 0.5650 Asian low exposes the 0.5641 friday low
London open liquidity is likely to resolve the sub-3-pip Asia range
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the main scheduled risk to this structure
05:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, pressing range top · RSI 58 · price 0.56594
Asia range 0.5652–0.5662, three tests of the top.
Monday's Asia session has held a 0.5652–0.5662 range after the China GDP beat lifted NZD. The 0.5662 asian high has capped three tests and sits on the 61.8% retracement of Friday's 0.5675–0.5641 sell-off. Price is pressing the range top into the London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asian high breaks the range and opens the path to the 0.5675 prior high
A break of the 0.5652 range floor puts the 0.5641 friday low back in view
London open is the first test of whether the Asia range holds
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC) and US housing data (Tue 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows inside the Asian range, pressing the range top.
Late in the Asia session, price is back at the 0.5662 Asian high after higher lows at the 0.5650 Asian low and 0.5652. NZD is drawing support from China's Q3 GDP beat. The 0.5650–0.5662 range is still intact ahead of London open, with the Friday NY high at 0.5669 and the Friday high at 0.5675 overhead.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5650, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 Asian high breaks the session range and puts the 0.5669 Friday NY high in play
Break of the higher-lows trendline and 0.5652 returns price to the 0.5650 Asian low; below there, the Friday low at 0.5641 is exposed
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC, QoQ f/c 0.8%) is the next major event for the kiwi
05:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 0.56559
Tight Asia-session range inside the wider Asian range.
Asia session has compressed into a 0.5652–0.5659 range since 00:30 UTC, after early swings between the 0.5647 Asian low and the 0.5662 Asian high. China's Q3 GDP beat at 4.5% only briefly lifted the 02:00 UTC bar. Price sits in the upper third of the rebound from the 0.5641 Friday low, with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5652, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 range top exposes the 0.5662 Asian high, then the 0.5675 Friday high
Failure at the 0.5652 range floor puts the 0.5647 Asian low and the 0.5641 Friday low back in play
London open liquidity in ~1h45m is the first test of the compression
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Flat, compressing near 0.5655 · RSI 51 · price 0.56549
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662, lower highs into higher lows.
Late Asia session: the Sunday-open spike to the 0.5662 Asia high was rejected. Price is now coiling between a 0.5659 lower high and a 0.5652 higher low, inside the 0.5650 Asia low floor. The China Q3 GDP beat lifted the Kiwi only briefly, and RSI(14) sits mid-range with ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 0.56521, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 lower high reopens the 0.5662 Asia high, with the 0.5675 Friday high beyond
Break of the 0.5652 higher low and the 0.5650 Asia low exposes the 0.5641 Friday low
London open typically expands this compressed Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI on Tue 21:45 UTC is the next scheduled NZD catalyst
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662, lower highs since 00:00 UTC.
Late Asia session is stuck inside the 0.5647–0.5662 Asian range. The China Q3 GDP beat lifted price only briefly to 0.5658 before it faded under a run of lower highs from the 0.5662 asia high. Price is now pressing the 0.5652 intraday low for a third time, just under both EMAs, with ATR(14) compressed near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5652 intraday low opens a test of the 0.5647 asia low, with the 0.5641 friday low beneath
Close above the 0.5659 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5662 asia high back in play, with the 0.5675 friday high above that
London open could expand the compressed 3-pip ATR and resolve the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% QoQ) is the next material catalyst for this read
04:32 UTC
Flat, mild lower highs · RSI 46 · price 0.56549
Asia session coil between 0.5652 and 0.5659.
The open spiked to a 0.5662 Asian high, and Asia has since compressed into a roughly 7-pip band between the 0.5652 range floor and the 0.5659 range cap. Lower highs are forming beneath the trendline. The China GDP beat produced only a brief pop to 0.5658, and with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) around 3 pips, nothing has broken yet.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 range cap and 0.5662 Asian high breaks the lower highs and exposes the 0.5667–0.5675 friday high zone
Failure at the 0.5652 range floor puts the 0.5647 sunday low back in play
London open is the first test of the Asian range; NZ Q3 CPI Tue 21:45 UTC is the next material risk
04:17 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 0.56559
Tight Asia range 0.5652–0.5662 inside Friday's 0.5641–0.5675 span.
Mid-Asia session, price is boxed between the 0.5652 asian low and the 0.5662 range top. The Sunday-open spike to that level met rejection, and later Asia attempts after the China GDP beat stalled near the 61.8% of Friday's NY sell-off. Price is pinned to EMA20 with RSI(14) at 49 and ATR near 3 pips, so no setup is in play.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 range top exposes the fri ny high at 0.5669 and the 0.5675 friday high
Break of the 0.5652 asian low reopens the 0.5647 open low and the 0.5641 friday low
Acceptance above the 78.6% of the NY sell-off fib (0.5663) negates the capped-retracement read
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the main scheduled risk to this read
04:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 53 · price 0.56578
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662, lower highs vs higher lows.
The Asia session put in a 0.5647–0.5662 range after the China Q3 GDP beat. Price is now compressing between a lower high at 0.5659 and a rising low at 0.5652, holding just above EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 53 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asian high breaks the compression and exposes the 0.5675 friday high
Loss of the 0.5652 rising low reopens the 0.5647 asian low, then the 0.5641 friday low
London open liquidity is likely to resolve the squeeze; China risk tone after the GDP beat remains the main NZD driver
03:47 UTC
Range-bound, rising lows · RSI 55 · price 0.56577
Asia session compressing 0.5652–0.5659 inside the 0.5647–0.5662 session range.
NZD firmed in early Asia after the China Q3 GDP beat. The session high is 0.5662, and price has since tightened into a 0.5652 range low / 0.5659 range cap box. Rising lows off 0.5652 are pressing into the cap, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) at about 3 pips, signalling compression.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 range cap and 0.5662 session high opens the path toward the 0.5675 Friday high
Break of the rising lows and the 0.5652 range low returns focus to the 0.5647 Monday low, then the 0.5641 Friday low
London open could expand the compressed ~3-pip ATR
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the next major driver for the pair
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662, lower highs vs higher lows.
Monday Asia session has NZD holding inside a 0.5650–0.5662 Asian range after the China Q3 GDP beat, with the asian high capped twice and a lower high near 0.5658. Higher low at 0.5652 tightens the coil, and RSI(14) near 48 with ~3-pip ATR shows no directional pressure.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5658, 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asian high breaks the range and exposes the 0.5675 friday high
Close below the 0.5652 higher low and the 0.5650 asian low reopens the 0.5641 friday low
London open is the first test of whether the lower high near 0.5658 keeps capping
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the next major event risk for the Asian range read
03:16 UTC
Sideways, compressing inside Asian range · RSI 49 · price 0.5656
Lower highs and higher lows within 0.5647–0.5662 Asian range.
Late in the Asia session, NZD/USD is holding the 0.5647–0.5662 Asian range after a firm open on the China Q3 GDP beat and a softer USD. Lower highs from the 0.5662 asia high and higher lows from 0.5650 are squeezing price into 0.5652–0.5658. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and price sits on EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR near 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5647, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asia high breaks the compression and puts the 0.5675 friday high in view
Failure to hold the 0.5652 swing low exposes the 0.5647 asia low, then the 0.5641 friday low
London open in roughly four hours is the likely catalyst to resolve the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC, QoQ f/c 0.8%) is the next major event risk for this range
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662, lower highs vs higher lows.
Asia session opened flat at Friday's 0.5651 close. Price spiked to a 0.5662 asian high around the soft NZ trade release, then faded and coiled. Since then lower highs have formed near 0.5658 and a higher low sits at 0.5652, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) only 3.5 pips heading into London open. The friday high at 0.5669 sits above, in line with the 0.5667–0.5670 marker in the digest. Below the range are the asian low at 0.5647 and the friday low at 0.5641.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5658, 0.56621, 0.56693
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5658 lower highs line puts the 0.5662 asian high back in play
Break of the 0.5652 higher low reopens the 0.5647 asian low
Close beyond the 0.5662 asian high exposes the 0.5669 friday high
Loss of the 0.5647 asian low exposes the 0.5641 friday low
London open typically expands range from current 3.5-pip ATR
Hormuz headlines could drive a haven USD move outside the data calendar
02:47 UTC
Sideways, mild lower highs in Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.56557
Asia range 0.5650–0.5662 inside Friday's 0.5641–0.5675 span.
Monday Asia is holding a 0.5650–0.5662 range after Friday's NY sell-off off the 0.5669 ny high to a 0.5641 friday low. The 0.5662 asian high sits at the 61.8% fib of Friday's 0.5675 friday high to 0.5641 drop and capped price twice, with lower highs since. Price is now mid-range near EMA20, RSI(14) at 55. Soft NZ trade and PSI data left price unmoved.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asian high / 61.8% fib breaks the range read, with the 0.5669 ny high next
A break of the 0.5652 swing low extends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5650 asian low exposes the 0.5641 friday low
Nothing scheduled in the next few hours; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21 Oct 21:45 UTC is the main event risk
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662 with lower highs and higher lows tightening.
Mid-Asia session, price is coiling inside a 0.5647–0.5662 range. Friday's NY drop to the 0.5641 friday low has been retraced, and the market is compressing between lower highs off the 0.5662 session high and a higher low at 0.5652. RSI(14) is neutral near 56. The firmness tracks a softer USD rather than NZ data, after Monday's NZ trade deficit widened and PSI slipped to 50.9.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5652 higher low breaks the compression and exposes the 0.5647 session low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5662 session high reopens the 0.5675 friday high
Loss of the 0.5641 friday low would confirm a lower-low sequence
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) is the main scheduled risk for this structure
02:16 UTC
Sideways after Friday's late selloff, mild upward drift · RSI 56 · price 0.56564
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662 with higher lows under a flat cap.
The Asia session opened near Friday's 0.5651 close against a weekend Hormuz risk-off backdrop. Soft NZ trade and PSI data barely registered. Price spiked to the 0.5662 Asian high and was capped there twice, while rising lows from the 0.5647 open low to the 0.5652 pivot low keep it compressed between the 50% and 61.8% fib of Friday's selloff from 0.5669 to 0.5641.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 Asian high (61.8% fib area) opens the 0.5669 Fri NY high and the 0.5675 Friday high
Break of the rising lows line and the 0.5652 pivot low exposes the 0.5647 open low, then the 0.5641 Friday low
Fresh Hormuz/Iran headlines during Asia hours could jolt USD and break the range
02:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Friday's NY selloff · RSI 51 · price 0.56559
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662, lower highs and higher lows tightening.
Asia session is holding inside 0.5650–0.5662 after Friday's NY drop from 0.5669 to 0.5641. The Asia high stalled at the 61.8% retracement of that drop, and price has been compressing since, with lower highs and a higher low at 0.5652. Weekend Hormuz headlines and soft NZ trade and PSI data have produced no directional follow-through.
Support: 0.56517, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 Asia high and 61.8% fib opens the 0.5669 Fri NY high, then the 0.5675 Fri high
Failure to hold the 0.5652 higher low, then the 0.5650 Asia low, exposes the 0.5641 Fri NY low
Hormuz/oil headlines into the London open could lift the haven USD and break the compression
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major driver for this pair
01:46 UTC
Flat, mid-range after Friday's NY sell-off · RSI 46 · price 0.56545
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662 inside Friday's 0.5641–0.5675 span.
Monday's Asia session is boxed between the 0.5650 asia base and the 0.5662 asia high. The high has seen two rejections, and price sits at the 50% retrace of Friday's NY drop from the 0.5669 ny high to the 0.5641 friday low. Weekend Hormuz headlines and soft second-tier NZ trade/PSI data have not moved the pair out of Friday's closing area.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asia high clears the 61.8% retrace and puts the 0.5669 ny high and 0.5675 friday high in play
Failure to hold the 0.5650 asia base exposes the 0.5641 friday low
Hormuz/Iran headlines during Asia hours could trigger a USD haven move
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the next scheduled driver; no tier-1 data in the next 8h
01:32 UTC
Flat, consolidating after Friday's NY drop · RSI 46 · price 0.56547
Asian range 0.5650–0.5662, tightening below the high.
Early Asia session: a thin-liquidity pop to the 0.5662 asian high at the open faded, a second push stalled at 0.5661, and buyers have held the 0.5650 asian floor three times since. Price sits mid-range at the 50% of Friday's NY drop fib (0.5669–0.5641), pinned to flat EMA20/EMA50, with the soft second-tier NZ trade/PSI data leaving no clear imprint.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asian high breaks the range and puts the 0.5675 friday high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5650 asian floor exposes the 0.5641 friday low
Hormuz/Iran headlines into the Tokyo and London opens could jolt USD and break the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the main scheduled risk for NZD this week
01:16 UTC
Rangebound after Friday's NY selloff, compressing · RSI 54 · price 0.56558
Asian range 0.5647–0.5662 with lower highs and higher lows narrowing.
Early in the Asia session, price is holding mid-range after two rejections at the 0.5661–0.5662 asian high. That high sits on the 61.8% retracement of Friday's drop from 0.5675 to 0.5641. Higher lows at the 0.5650 asian low and the 0.5654 higher low are compressing price, and soft NZ trade and PSI data plus weekend Hormuz headlines have produced only a shallow opening dip.
Support: 0.56543, 0.56495, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.5669 ny high, then the 0.5675 friday high
Loss of the 0.5654 higher low, then the 0.5650 asian low, unwinds the compression and brings the 0.5641 friday low back into view
Hormuz/oil headlines during Asia hours could materially shift this read; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
01:05 UTC
Sideways after Friday's NY drop, mild recovery · RSI 54 · price 0.56554
Monday range 0.5647–0.5662, lower high at 0.5661, higher low at 0.5650.
Monday's open dipped to the open low at 0.5647, then the 0.5662 range high rejected a spike as weekend Hormuz headlines kept a haven bid under USD. Price is coiling between 0.5650 and 0.5662 around the 50% fib of Friday's 0.5669–0.5641 NY drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 4.5 pips, so the Asia session is quiet; soft NZ trade and PSI data added little.
Support: 0.56495, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 range high opens the 0.5669 NY high, then the 0.5675 Friday high
Failure to hold the 0.5650 range low and the 0.5647 open low exposes the 0.5641 Friday low
Escalating Hormuz/oil headlines during Asia could add haven USD pressure and break the range
00:47 UTC
Flat open, compressing after Friday's late recovery · RSI 61 · price 0.56573
Asia range 0.5647–0.5662 with higher lows under a capped session high.
NZD/USD opened the week flat near Friday's 0.5651 close. A spike to the 0.5662 session high was rejected twice, while the early Asia session prints higher lows from the 0.5647 session low to the 0.5650 higher low. Price is pinned near 0.5657, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of Friday's drop from the 0.5669 NY high to the 0.5641 prior low. Soft NZ trade and PSI data and weekend Hormuz headlines have brought no follow-through so far. RSI(14) is near 61.
Support: 0.56495, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high breaks the compression and opens 0.5669 ny high, then 0.5675 prior high
Loss of the 0.5650 higher low and rising trendline reopens the 0.5647 session low and 0.5641 prior low
Escalating Hormuz/oil headlines into London open could revive the haven USD bid and shift this read
00:32 UTC
Sideways after Friday's late drop · RSI 54 · price 0.56553
Early Asia range 0.5647–0.5662, higher lows, flat highs.
Monday's Asia session opened flat to Friday's 0.5651 close and is boxed between the 0.5647 session low and the 0.5662 session high, with the soft NZ trade and PSI prints not breaking the range. The session high rejected twice, both times inside the upper half of the Friday NY drop fib. The higher low at 0.5650 is holding, with price hugging EMA20/50, RSI(14) near 54 and ATR about 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high breaks the Asian range and opens the 0.5675 Friday high
Loss of the 0.5650 higher low and the higher-lows trendline reopens the 0.5647 session low, then the 0.5641 Friday low
Hormuz or oil headlines during the Asia session could jolt USD and shift this read; NZ Q3 CPI (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the larger swing event
Early Asia range 0.5647–0.5662, price retesting the open high.
Early in the Asia session, the opening spike to the 0.5662 open high faded after soft NZ trade and PSI data. The pullback held a higher low at 0.5650, and price is back testing the open high, above the 61.8% of Friday's NY sell-off. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 4.5 pips, with the thin-liquidity range from the 0.5647 open low to 0.5662 still intact.
Support: 0.56495, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 open high breaks the Asian range, exposing the 0.5669 swing high and the 0.5675 Friday prior high
Loss of the 0.5650 higher low returns price to the 0.5647 open low; below that sits Friday's ny low at 0.5641
Hormuz/oil headlines during the Asia session could jolt USD and override the range read
Monday Asia range 0.5647–0.5662, higher low at 0.5650.
Early Asia session on Monday is back testing the 0.5662 session high after a higher low at 0.5650. That high sits on the 61.8% retracement of Friday's 0.5675–0.5641 drop. Weekend Hormuz headlines brought no gap, and the soft NZ trade and PSI prints only produced a brief dip to the 0.5647 session low.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56467, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.56621, 0.56693, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high clears the 61.8% of Friday's drop and opens the 0.5669 NY high, then the 0.5675 Friday high
Loss of the 0.5650 higher low and 0.5647 session low returns focus to the 0.5641 Friday low
Oil and Hormuz headlines during Asia hours could shift USD tone before London open; NZ Q3 CPI Tue 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk