Lower-high/lower-low chain from 0.5988 flattening into a 0.5580–0.5634 base.
NZDUSD has been in a downtrend since the late-August 0.5988 high. A weekly sequence of lower highs and lower lows has carried price below both EMAs, and the EMA(50) is still falling. Since early October the decline has stalled into a 0.5580–0.5634 range, with the range cap holding on every daily attempt. Wednesday's hot US CPI print pushed price through the range floor to an 18m low at 0.5565, but that break failed: Thursday closed back mid-range as US yields eased and hawkish RBNZ commentary supported NZD.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5687, 0.5749
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 0.5580 range floor and the 0.5565 18m low would extend the lower-low sequence and negate the false break
Daily close above the 0.5634 range cap exposes the 0.5687 lower high; the 38.2% Aug-Oct fib retracement sits near 0.5727
Recovery above the 0.5749 swing high would break the lower-high chain that defines the downtrend
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC, and NZ Q3 CPI is due 21 Oct ahead of the 28 Oct RBNZ decision; either could shift the range read
17:50 UTC
Downtrend from August high, momentum stalling · RSI 39 · price 0.56095
LH/LL chain from 0.5988; two-week base 0.5565–0.5635.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 21 Aug high at 0.5988, shedding roughly 420 pips with price below a falling EMA(50). The slide has stalled into a 0.5580–0.5635 range through October. Wednesday's hot US CPI drove a wick to an 18-month low at 0.5565 that failed to hold, and softer US yields plus hawkish RBNZ commentary lifted price back toward the range cap, with RSI near 38 off its lows.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5690, 0.5750
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 0.5635 range cap opens the path to the 0.5690 breakdown area and the 23.6% fib near 0.5665
Close below the 0.5580 range floor and the 18m low at 0.5565 resumes the LH/LL chain
0.5750 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 0.5727 mark where the August downtrend structure would be challenged
Fed Chair Warsh (03:30 UTC Fri) and NZ Q3 CPI on 21 Oct ahead of the 28 Oct RBNZ decision could materially shift this read