Higher-low chain off the NY low, pressing 0.5624 session high.
The pair has climbed from the 0.5601 NY low after the hot US PPI spike to 0.5591 faded as yields fell. Early Asia session is printing higher lows at 0.5614 (rollover low) and 0.5619, with a firm NZ PMI of 56.5 behind the move. Supply is capping at the 0.5624 session high, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.56192, 0.56142, 0.56011
Resistance: 0.56238, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5624 session high opens yesterday's 0.5634 Asian high
Break below the 0.5619 higher low and the rising trendline turns the micro-structure flat
Loss of the 0.5614 rollover low exposes the 0.5601 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher lows since the PPI low; inside the 0.5591–0.5634 daily range.
The dip to the 0.5591 ppi low on hot US PPI has been fully absorbed. Price has since ground higher through late NY into early Asia, building a higher low chain from 0.5610 to 0.5619, with the trendline from the 0.5614 swing low intact. At 0.5623 the pair is pressing the late high near the 78.6% fib of the asia high-to-ppi low drop, with RSI(14) near 63 and the 0.5634 asia high (two-week top) overhead.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5614, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 late high exposes the 0.5634 asia high, the two-week top
Loss of the 0.5619 higher low, then the trendline near the 0.5614 swing low, ends the higher-low grind
Close back below the 0.5591 ppi low confirms a lower-low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the post-PPI low; fresh high at 0.5623 after rollover.
Hot US PPI pushed price briefly through 0.5600 to 0.5591. Falling Treasury yields turned that into a false break, and the post-PPI upleg has since built higher lows at the 0.5601 ny low, the 0.5611 higher low and the 0.5614 swing low. Early Asia printed a new swing high at 0.5623, and price is holding just below it in tight bars. The session's Asia high at 0.5634 is still well overhead.
Support: 0.56142, 0.56106, 0.56011
Resistance: 0.56233, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5623 swing high extends the HH chain toward the 0.5634 asia high
Break of the 0.5614 swing low and the rising trendline signals the grind is stalling, with the 0.5611 higher low next
Loss of the 0.5601 ny low puts the 0.5600 pivot back in play and negates the post-PPI upleg
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the NY day low, inside the 0.5591–0.5634 daily range.
The hot US data dump marked the day low at 0.5591, but falling Treasury yields faded the USD beats. Late NY then built higher lows into a 0.5623 late NY high, with rising support from the day low intact. Early Asia is underway, holding inside yesterday's range and below the 0.5634 Asia high that capped the two-week top.
Support: 0.56144, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56233, 0.56344
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5623 late NY high opens the path back to the 0.5634 Asia high
Loss of the 0.5614 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the day-low rally fib 50% near 0.5607, then the 0.5601 NY swing low
Break of rising support from the day low reopens the 0.5591 day low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
HH/HL chain off the NY data low, pressing the recent high.
The 0.5591 data low from the hot US PPI and retail sales dump was faded as Treasury yields fell. NZD has since built higher lows at 0.5601 and 0.5614 and is now just under the 0.5623 recent high in thin early-Asia trade, past the 61.8% retracement of the Asia high-to-data low drop. ATR near 4 pips shows a compressed post-NY tape.
Support: 0.56142, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56233, 0.56276, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5623 recent high opens the 0.5628 asia pivot and the 0.5634 asia high (two-week top)
Break below the 0.5614 swing low and the rising support line ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5601 higher low
Loss of 0.5591 data low reverts to the post-PPI downside structure
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher-low chain off the 0.5601 NY low, testing the session high.
Hot US PPI and retail sales spiked the pair to 0.5591 at the NY open, but falling Treasury yields pulled it back. A rising higher-low chain from the 0.5601 NY low has since carried price to a fresh session high at 0.5623 in early Asia trade. Yesterday's Asia high at 0.5634 sits overhead, with the prior low at 0.5611 below the current higher low.
Support: 0.56142, 0.56106, 0.56011
Resistance: 0.56233, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5614 higher low breaks the late-NY rising chain
Acceptance above the 0.5623 session high exposes the 0.5634 asia high, the 0.5630–0.5635 cap
Loss of the 0.5611 prior low puts the 0.5601 ny low and the post-data leg's 61.8% back in play
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
22:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since US data · RSI 57 · price 0.56191
HL chain from 0.5591 data low, pressing NY high 0.5622.
The 12:30 UTC US data dump (hot PPI, retail sales) swept the day low at 0.5591 before falling yields reversed the move. Since then higher lows at the 0.5601 NY low and 0.5614 have put price back at the 0.5622 NY high and the 61.8% retracement of the Asian-high-to-data-low drop, in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 0.56142, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high opens the 0.5634 Asian high
Loss of the 0.5614 higher low and the rising support line breaks the HL chain
A break of the 0.5601 NY low puts the 0.5591 day low back in play
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC, early Asia session, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5591 data low, capped twice at 0.5621.
The hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC spiked NZDUSD to a 0.5591 data low, and falling yields then drove a recovery that retraced about 61.8–70% of the drop from the 0.5634 asia high. Supply capped the move at the 0.5621 ny high at 14:30 UTC and again after rollover, leaving price at 0.5614 in a thin post-NY range above the 0.5611 swing low.
Support: 0.56106, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 ny high breaks the double cap and opens the 0.5634 asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5611 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5601 ny low, then the 0.5591 data low
Holding inside the 0.5618–0.5621 fib band (61.8% of the asia-ny drop) keeps the rejection read intact
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~6h); a hawkish lean on hike timing could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the NY low, late-session grind · RSI 66 · price 0.56202
Higher lows since the PPI spike low, pressing the post-data NY high.
Hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC printed the ppi low at 0.55908. Yield-led USD selling then lifted the pair through a higher-low chain at 0.56011 (swing low) and 0.56103 (higher low). Thin late-NY trade is now pressing the 0.56215 ny high, above the 61.8% retrace of the asian high to ppi low drop, with ATR compressed to roughly 3 pips.
Support: 0.56103, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56215 ny high opens the 0.56344 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.56103 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline; 0.56011 swing low is next
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the data low, pressing session high · RSI 69 · price 0.56201
Higher lows since the 0.5591 US-data spike; testing the 0.5622 NY high.
The spike to the 0.5591 data low on the hot US PPI and retail sales print reversed as falling Treasury yields undercut the dollar. Price has since built higher lows through late NY, at 0.5601 and then 0.5610, and now presses the 0.5622 NY high with RSI(14) near 69. Price sits above the 61.8% retrace of the Asia high-to-data low drop, with the 0.5634 Asia high above.
Support: 0.56103, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high opens the path to the 0.5634 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5610 higher low breaks the NY rising trendline and exposes the 0.5601 swing low
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read in thin Asia trade
20:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the NY low, slow late-session grind · RSI 68 · price 0.56184
Higher-low chain from 0.5601, price at 61.8% of the Asia high to PPI low drop.
The hot US PPI washout to the 0.5591 ppi low was fully reclaimed as Treasury yields fell. Since then, late NY has built a higher-low chain off the 0.5601 pullback low along a rising trendline, and price is now pressing the 0.5618 61.8% retrace of the Asia high to PPI low drop. The 0.5622 NY high is the nearest cap, with ATR near 3 pips in thin late-session trade.
Support: 0.56103, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high opens the 0.5634 Asia high
Loss of the 0.5610 swing low breaks the rising trendline and ends the higher-low chain, with the 0.5601 pullback low next
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Recovery off PPI low, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 0.56152
Higher lows 0.5591/0.5601/0.5610 compressing under 0.5617 session high.
The hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC swept down to the 0.5591 PPI low, but the dip was reversed as falling yields faded the dollar's data bid. Price then printed rising lows at the 0.5601 NY swing low and 0.5610, and late NY is compressing under the 0.5617 session high. Breman's 17:15 UTC remarks produced only a slow grind higher.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5601, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5622 post-PPI high, then the 0.5634 Asia high
Loss of the 0.5610 rising low and the rising-lows trendline puts the 0.5601 NY swing low back in play, with the 0.5591 PPI low below
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift this read; Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri is the high-impact risk
Higher lows off 0.5601 meeting a descending line from the 0.5634 Asia high.
The hot-PPI spike to the 0.5591 ppi low was bought, and late NY has built a higher-low chain off the 0.5601 swing low. Price now sits at the descending line from the 0.5634 asia high, near the 61.8% retrace and just under the 0.5617 late high. Breman's 17:15 UTC remarks barely moved the pair.
Support: 0.56103, 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5622 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and clears the descending line
Loss of the 0.5610 higher low, then the 0.5601 swing low, reopens the 0.5591 ppi low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows under a lower high · RSI 61 · price 0.56149
Higher lows from 0.5601, capped below the 0.5622 NY high.
The Asia session ran to 0.5634 (asia high) before London faded it. The 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales beats spiked a data low at 0.5591, but falling Treasury yields drove a NY rebound to the 0.5622 NY high. Since the 0.5601 swing low, price has built higher lows along a trendline near 0.5610 through Breman's remarks, and is stalling at the 0.5617 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib retracement of the asia high-to-data low drop.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5601, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high clears the lower high and the 61.8% fib, exposing the 0.5634 asia high
Break of the trendline near 0.5610 and the 0.5601 swing low returns focus to the 0.5591 data low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and NZ Business PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift this read in thin late-NY trade
Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri is the high-impact catalyst for a yield-driven move
19:32 UTC
Range, slight upward drift through NY · RSI 54 · price 0.56108
Higher lows since PPI spike, capped by lower high below Asia peak.
Late NY session, NZD/USD is rotating mid-range at 0.5611 after the hot US PPI spike swept below 0.5600 to the 0.5591 ppi low and was fully reclaimed as yields slid. NY has printed a higher low at 0.5601 under a 0.5622 ny high, a lower high versus the 0.5634 asia high. The post-Breman lift stalled at 0.5617, near the 61.8% retrace of the asia high-ppi low drop, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI neutral at 54.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 higher low breaks the NY trendline and reopens the 0.5591 ppi low
Close above the 0.5622 ny high clears the lower-high cap and exposes the 0.5634 asia high
Repeated stalls at 0.5617 post-breman high keep the 0.5601–0.5622 range intact
Hammack 20:30 UTC and NZ PMI 21:30 UTC into Asia open, then Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (~8h), could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Recovering from the data low, momentum flattening · RSI 58 · price 0.56132
Higher lows since the US data spike, lower high capping, range tightening.
The Asia session rally to 0.5634 was fully unwound into the hot US PPI and retail sales release, but the 12:30 UTC data low at 0.5591 held as yields slid. Since then NY has printed a higher swing low at 0.5601 and is now retesting the 50% retrace near 0.5613. A late high at 0.5617, just under the 0.5622 NY high, caps the tightening range after the London close.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5617 late high and the 0.5622 ny high breaks the lower-high cap and the 61.8% retrace. That exposes the 0.5634 asia high.
Loss of the 0.5601 swing low and the rising line breaks the higher-low chain. That puts the 0.5591 data low back in play.
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC could jolt the thin late-NY range. Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri is the larger risk to this read.
19:02 UTC
Recovering from PPI spike low, momentum flat · RSI 57 · price 0.56135
Higher lows from 0.5591, lower high at 0.5617; coiling inside 0.5601–0.5622.
The 12:30 UTC hot US PPI/retail print briefly broke below 0.5600 to the 0.5591 ppi low before a yield-led USD fade reclaimed it, and NY has since printed a higher swing low at 0.5601. Late NY is coiling between rising support and the 0.5622 ny high, with price near the 50% retrace of the asia high–ppi low drop and RSI(14) neutral at ~57.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5617 late high and 0.5622 ny high reopens the 0.5634 asia high
Break of the 0.5601 swing low and rising support exposes the 0.5591 ppi low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC, NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since 16:00 UTC · RSI 61 · price 0.56145
Higher-low chain off 0.5601, capped below NY high 0.5622.
The Asia rally to the 0.5634 Asia high faded through London. Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC drove a false break to the 0.5591 PPI low, then falling yields lifted price to the 0.5622 NY high. Since 16:00 UTC price has built a higher low at 0.5601 near the 61.8–78.6% retracement of that move and is pressing the 0.5617 session high in late NY, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high opens the 0.5634 Asia high
Loss of the 0.5601 higher low breaks the recovery and puts the 0.5591 PPI low back in play
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and NZ PMI (21:30 UTC) could shift this read; Warsh at 03:30 UTC is the larger risk
18:34 UTC
Intraday recovery off PPI low · RSI 61 · price 0.56164
Higher low at 0.5601, retesting London high.
After the 0.5634 Asian high, NZD faded into the hot US PPI and retail sales data at 12:30 UTC, which set the 0.5591 PPI low before it reversed. A higher low at 0.5601 and a late-NY grind through Breman's 17:15 UTC remarks have price retesting the 0.5618 London high. That level sits at the 61.8% fib of the Asian high–PPI low drop, with the 0.5622 NY high just above.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high confirms a higher high and opens the 0.5634 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5601 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the 0.5591 PPI low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and NZ Business PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift the read into the Asia session
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC, the key USD catalyst for the next Asian range
Higher low at 0.5601 after data false break, capped below NY high.
The Asia rally to the 0.5634 asian high faded through London. Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC produced a false break to the 0.5591 data low that reversed as yields slid. Late NY is grinding higher off a 0.5601 higher low and sits near the 50% of the asian high–data low fib. Breman's 17:15 UTC remarks gave only a minor lift, and RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 ny high opens the 61.8% fib near 0.5618 and then the 0.5634 asian high
Loss of the 0.5601 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the 0.5591 data low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and NZ Business PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift this read into the Asia open
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri is the larger catalyst for the next Asian session
18:02 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher low in place · RSI 55 · price 0.56148
Higher low at 0.5601 after post-PPI low; pressing london high.
The hot US PPI/retail sales release flushed NZDUSD to a 0.5591 ppi low, which was bought immediately. NY then printed a higher low at 0.5601, just above the 0.5600 psych level, and price has climbed to 0.5615 through Breman's 17:15 UTC remarks. It is now retesting the 0.5618 london high, with the 0.5622 ny high and the 0.5634 asian high stacked above.
Support: 0.56011, 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 ny high opens the path to the 0.5634 asian high / two-week cap
Failure to hold the 0.5601 higher low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5591 ppi low
Rising-lows trendline from the ppi low; a break below it undoes the recovery structure
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and NZ Business PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift this read
Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC is the main catalyst for the Asia session
17:47 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since US data · RSI 55 · price 0.56132
Higher lows inside the Asian range, capped below NY high.
Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC flushed price below the Asian range low to the 0.5591 PPI low. That move was a false break: price reclaimed 0.5600 and has since built higher lows, with the 0.5601 swing low the latest. The late-NY push to the 0.5615 late high came around Breman's remarks. Price remains below the 0.5622 NY high and inside the 0.5602–0.5634 Asian range.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56148, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5615 late high and the 0.5622 NY high would put the 0.5634 Asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5601 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5591 PPI low
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC), NZ PMI (21:30 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Range after post-data rebound, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 0.5610
Lower high at 0.5622 under the 0.5634 Asia high; higher low at 0.5601; compressing near 0.5610.
Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC flushed price to the 0.5591 US data low. The NY rebound to 0.5622 was rejected near the 61.8% retracement of the Asia-high decline, and a higher swing low at 0.5601 has price compressing around 0.5610 on flat EMAs. Breman's 17:15 UTC remarks have drawn little reaction so far, leaving the pair inside the 0.5591–0.5634 day range.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5601 swing low fails the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5591 US data low
An M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high reopens the 0.5634 Asia high
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and NZ Business PMI (21:30 UTC) could shift this read; Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri is the larger risk
17:17 UTC
Range-bound, compressing after PPI swing · RSI 55 · price 0.56103
Higher low at 0.5601 vs 0.5591, lower high at 0.5622 vs 0.5634; contracting range.
The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC flushed price below the London low to the 0.5591 ppi low. Softer yields then lifted it back above 0.5600, and the rebound stalled at the 0.5622 ny high. After London close the pair sits mid-range at 0.5610, hugging the EMA50, with rising lows (0.5591, then the 0.5601 ny low) pressing against lower highs off the 0.5634 asia high.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
RBNZ's Breman speaking from 17:15 UTC could break the 0.5601–0.5622 range
An M15 close below the 0.5601 ny low exposes the 0.5591 ppi low
A close above the 0.5622 ny high opens the path to the 0.5634 asia high
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri are the next USD-side event risk
17:03 UTC
Sideways after Asia spike, momentum neutral · RSI 52 · price 0.56073
Range 0.5601–0.5621 below Asia high, rising lows since PPI.
The Asia session rally topped at 0.5634 (asia high) and faded through London. The hot US PPI spiked price to 0.5591 (ppi low) before yields eased and it recovered to the 0.5621 NY high, where it was capped. Price now sits at the 50% of that PPI swing near 0.5607, with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR(14) about 5 pips, and is pinned against EMA20.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could break the range in either direction
A close below the 0.5601 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the ppi low at 0.5591
A close above the 0.5621 NY high reopens a test of the 0.5634 asia high
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC falls in the Asia session and could reset the range
16:46 UTC
Post-data chop, below Asia high · RSI 54 · price 0.56078
NY range 0.5591–0.5622, higher swing low at 0.5601.
Asia peaked at the 0.5634 asia high after Conway's hawkish remarks, then London ground lower. The hot US PPI print flushed price to the 0.5591 ppi low, but falling yields drove a NY rebound to 0.5622 that was rejected at the ny high. After London close price sits near 0.5608, at the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-to-PPI drop, holding above a higher swing low at 0.5601 with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5601 swing low exposes the 0.5591 ppi low and the 0.5600 handle
A close above the 0.5622 ny high reopens the 0.5634 asia high
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC are the next USD risk
16:32 UTC
Two-way, post-data rebound stalling below Asia high · RSI 54 · price 0.56065
NY range 0.5591–0.5622; lower high vs Asia peak, higher low above PPI spike.
The hot US PPI and retail sales beat produced a spike to the 0.5591 PPI low that was reclaimed within the release bar as yields faded. The rebound was capped at the 0.5622 NY high, a lower high versus the 0.5634 Asia high. Price is now holding a higher low at 0.5601, around the 50% fib of the post-PPI leg and just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56011, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5601 higher low opens a retest of the 0.5591 PPI low.
Acceptance above the 0.5622 NY high brings the 0.5634 Asia high (two-week top) back into view.
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from the 0.5634 Asian high; post-data rally fully faded.
The hot US PPI and retail sales prints spiked the pair to a 0.5591 data low. Softer yields then lifted it to a 0.5622 NY high, which met rejection, and price has slid back to the 0.5600 round number, about 61.8% of the post-data fib. Lower highs from the 0.5634 Asian high hold, and the London low at 0.5605 now caps price from above.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56052, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5591 data low extends the lower-high sequence
Recovery above the 0.5605 london low and the 0.5622 ny high breaks the lower highs trendline
Acceptance back above the 0.5634 asia high invalidates the intraday lower-high read
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Drifting lower from Asia high, lower highs · RSI 47 · price 0.56043
Lower highs since 0.5634; NY range 0.5591–0.5622, price back in lower half.
The US PPI and retail sales spike dipped below 0.5600 to a 0.5591 data low and quickly recovered, as softer yields capped the USD bid. The NY bounce then stalled at 0.5622 (ny high), a lower high under the 0.5634 asia high set after Conway's remarks. After London close price has faded back toward the 0.5600 psych level, below both EMAs with RSI(14) around 47.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5591 data low would extend the lower-high sequence into a lower low
Close above the 0.5622 ny high and the lower-highs trendline challenges the fade
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC, an event risk for the Asian session
15:47 UTC
Choppy recovery inside a lower-high day · RSI 54 · price 0.56088
Higher lows since the 0.5591 PPI low; NY high 0.5622 capping.
Asia ran to the 0.5634 asia high on Conway's hawkish remarks before London ground lower. The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC briefly broke the 0.5600 psych level to the 0.5591 ppi low, and that break failed as Treasury yields slid. The NY bounce was rejected at the 0.5622 ny high, and price is now holding the 0.5606 pullback low near the 50% retrace of that leg, with RSI(14) neutral around 54.
Support: 0.56062, 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5606 pullback low puts the 0.5600 psych and the 0.5591 ppi low back in play
A close above the 0.5622 ny high reopens the 0.5634 asia high
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC are the next event risks
15:32 UTC
Intraday chop, lower highs since Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.56068
Post-PPI range 0.5591–0.5622 inside lower highs.
The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked NZDUSD to the 0.5591 PPI low, a false break of the 0.5600 round number. Fading US yields then lifted the pair to a 0.5622 NY high, which stalled below the 0.5634 Asia high. Price has since slipped back to the 50% of the post-PPI fib near 0.5607 late in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and the lower highs line from Asia still intact.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5591 PPI low
Acceptance above the 0.5622 NY high breaks the lower highs line toward the 0.5634 Asia high
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC is a secondary USD risk
Higher lows off the 0.5591 data low, capped by the 0.5622 NY high.
Asia ran to the 0.5634 asia high on Conway's hawkish remarks, and London faded it to the 0.5605 london low. The hot US PPI/Retail Sales release at 12:30 UTC swept below 0.5600 to the 0.5591 data low before falling yields drove a recovery. Rejection at the 0.5622 ny high has left price testing the NY rising line near 0.5611, hovering around EMA50.
Support: 0.56052, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny rising line and the 0.5605 london low reopens the 0.5591 data low
Acceptance above the 0.5622 ny high puts the 0.5634 asia high back in play
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC follow
15:03 UTC
Intraday down from Asia high, recovering post-data · RSI 55 · price 0.56135
Lower highs since 0.5634; higher lows off 0.5591 data low.
Hot US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to a 0.5591 data low, but the false break under 0.5600 psych was reversed as Treasury yields slid. NY hours built rising lows through the 0.5610 breakout level before a rejection at the 0.5622 NY high, with price now near the 50% retrace of the Asia high-data low drop.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
Breman speaks at 17:15 UTC; a hawkish echo of Conway could lift the pair through the 0.5622 NY high toward the 0.5634 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5610 breakout level and the rising lows trendline puts 0.5600 psych back in play
An M15 close below the 0.5591 data low would turn the post-data false break into a lower low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of the read
14:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since US data · RSI 56 · price 0.56155
Higher lows off the 0.5591 data low, still below the 0.5634 Asian high.
Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC briefly pushed NZDUSD through the 0.5605 london low to a 0.5591 data low. The spike was rejected, and NY has since built higher lows along rising data-low support, topping London's high at the 0.5622 NY high. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-data low drop and is still capped below the 0.5634 Asian high.
Support: 0.56053, 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 NY high opens the 0.5634 Asian high / two-week top
Loss of the 0.5605 london low and 0.5600 psych breaks data-low support and puts the 0.5591 data low back in play
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.5591, pressing London range top.
Hot US PPI and retail sales spiked the pair to a data low of 0.5591, near the 78.6% retrace of the Asian rally, but the round number at 0.5600 was reclaimed within the bar. Early NY has since printed a rising trendline of higher lows, with price now pressing the 0.5612–0.5618 London high zone. RSI(14) sits near 58, short of stretched.
Support: 0.56032, 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 London high opens the path to the 0.5634 Asian high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5603 swing low, then a close back under the 0.5600 round number, puts the data low at 0.5591 back in focus
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, stabilising in NY · RSI 46 · price 0.5605
Lower highs since 0.5634; NY higher lows compressing under 0.5609.
Lower highs from the 0.5634 Asian high through London led to a break under 0.5605 on the hot US PPI and retail sales beats. The 0.5591 ppi low was rejected inside the release bar. NY has since printed higher lows above the 0.5598 swing low, stalling at the 0.5609 ny high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high-to-PPI drop.
Support: 0.5598, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5609 ny high and the 38.2% fib opens 0.5618 london high
Loss of the 0.5598 swing low breaks the NY higher-lows line and exposes the 0.5591 ppi low
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed Hammack at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, stabilising · RSI 50 · price 0.56074
Lower highs since Asia; false break below 0.5600 on US data.
Lower highs since the 0.5634 Asian high, set on Conway's hawkish remarks, carried the pair through London to a 0.5591 data low on the 12:30 UTC hot US PPI and retail sales. That drop below the 0.5600 round number reversed within the bar. Early in the NY session, price is pressing the 38.2% fib near 0.5607 and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56126, 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high (50% fib) breaks the descending sequence; the 0.5618 London high sits just above
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5591 data low would extend the lower-low chain from the Asian high
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC follows
13:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs from Asia peak · RSI 45 · price 0.56028
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia high, post-data sweep reclaimed 0.5600.
Kiwi has printed lower highs since the 0.5634 Asia high, set on Conway's hawkish remarks. London capped at 0.5618 and later lost the 0.5605 floor. The hot US PPI and retail sales release swept to a 0.5591 spike low before price reclaimed the 0.5600 round number, and it now sits under the falling lower-highs line, just above the 23.6% of the Asia-NY drop.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56085, 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 spike high and the lower-highs line would break the intraday lower-high sequence, with the 0.5618 london high next
Failure at the 0.5600 round number and a break of the 0.5591 spike low would confirm a fresh lower-low toward 0.5580
Recovery through the 50% of the Asia-NY drop (~0.5613) would put the 0.5634 asia high back in play
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high, steadying at 0.5600 · RSI 39 · price 0.56034
Lower highs below a falling trendline; NY broke under the Asian range low.
NZDUSD has made lower highs off the 0.5634 Asian high along a falling trendline (London high 0.5618, then a lower high at 0.5613). The hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC sent the spike low to 0.5591, a tag of the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 0.5565–0.5634 rally, and closed the bar back near 0.5604, leaving a 0.5609 spike high. In the first hour of NY the pair sits below the Asian low near 0.5602 and is holding the 0.5600 round number, with a 0.5596 post-data low beneath. RSI(14) is near 39 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55962, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56085, 0.56126, 0.56184
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 spike high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5613 lower high and 0.5618 london high sit above
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5596 post-data low exposes the 0.5591 spike low and 61.8% fib
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain since Asia peak; price testing 0.5600 after PPI spike.
The Asia rally topped at the 0.5634 session high. London and early NY then printed lower highs along a falling trendline, the last a 0.5609 PPI high as the hot US PPI and retail sales beat lifted the USD. The 0.5591 PPI low was rejected, and price now sits on the 0.5600 round number, the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55908, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56085, 0.56126, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5613 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 0.5591 PPI low exposes the 0.5581 swing low and the 78.6% of the Asia rally fib
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack follows at 20:30 UTC
13:04 UTC
Pullback from Asia peak, lower highs intact · RSI 41 · price 0.5604
Lower highs from 0.5634; PPI spike low held at 61.8% retracement.
The hot US PPI and retail sales beat at 12:30 UTC pushed NZDUSD through the 0.5599 pre-data low to a 0.5591 spike low. That low sits at the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 0.5565–0.5634 rally, and the pair rebounded from it to 0.5604. Lower highs from the 0.5634 Asia high through the 0.5618 London high remain in place, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5599, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5591 spike low breaks the 61.8% fib hold
Recovery above the 0.5612 pre-data hi breaks the lower-high chain; 0.5618 london high next
0.5634 asia high caps the session structure
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend off Asian high, post-data whipsaw · RSI 37 · price 0.56031
Lower highs since the 0.5634 Asian high; data spike below 0.5600 reclaimed.
Since the 0.5634 Asian high, NZDUSD has printed a run of lower highs. The London high at 0.5618 capped the bounce, and the falling trendline came in near 0.5608. The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail bar spiked to 0.5591, the data low at the 61.8% of the rally from the 18m low, then snapped back to the 0.5600 / 50% fib area. That bar was rejected at the trendline, leaving price below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.5599, 0.55908, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56085, 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline near 0.5608, then the 0.5618 london high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5600 / 50% fib and the 0.5591 data low exposes the 18m low at 0.5565
Asian high at 0.5634 remains the top of the session range
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 37 · price 0.56004
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5634 Asian peak; release wick to 0.5592.
NZDUSD has been fading the Conway-driven Asian spike to 0.5634, printing lower highs at the 0.5618 London high and 0.5613 before losing the 0.5605 broken shelf late in London. The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail sales bar wicked to a 0.5592 data low and snapped back to the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) sits near 37 and is not stretched, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5605, 0.5613, 0.5618
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5605 broken shelf and the lower-highs trendline (~0.5607) would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Acceptance below the 0.5592 data low exposes the 0.5585 asian base, where the overnight rally started
The release bar is still forming; US yield follow-through after PPI/retail sales decides whether the 0.5600 round number holds
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read if he confirms or walks back Conway's October hike optionality
12:17 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, lower highs · RSI 34 · price 0.5601
London range low broken; testing 50% retrace of overnight rally.
The overnight rally from the post-CPI 0.5565 low topped at 0.5634 in the Asia session on Conway's hawkish remarks. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, and the pre-NY slide has broken the London low at 0.5605 to probe 0.5600, the 50% fib of the rally. RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not stretched, with US PPI and Retail Sales about 13 minutes out.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5605, 0.5613, 0.5618
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~13 min) can materially shift this read; the print can easily dwarf the ~4-pip ATR
Holding below the 0.5605 london low keeps the range break intact; a reclaim would mark it as a false break
A close below the 0.5592 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5581 swing low near the 0.5580 area
A recovery through the 0.5613 lower high and the 0.5618 london high breaks the lower-high chain since Asia
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC on October hike optionality is a second risk event in the NY session
12:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 34 · price 0.56028
Lower-highs chain off 0.5634, pressing 0.5602 Asia low.
The bounce off yesterday's post-CPI 0.5565 low ran on softer yields and Conway's hawkish remark, then topped at the 0.5634 Asia high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at the 0.5618 London high and the 0.5613 lower high from the 11:00 UTC bounce. Price is now pressing the 0.5602 Asia low with RSI(14) near 34, a retracement between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that rally.
Support: 0.56016, 0.55998, 0.55916
Resistance: 0.56126, 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC can move price far beyond the ~4-pip ATR and reset intraday structure
M15 close below 0.5600 (50% fib, round number) under the Asia low opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5592
Close above the 0.5613 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.5618 London high is next, with the 0.5634 Asia high beyond
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could shift the October hike read
11:46 UTC
Pullback within Asia rally, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 0.56094
London range 0.5605–0.5618 with lower highs pressing a flat base.
Conway's hawkish 'completely open' remark lifted the pair during Asia from the 0.5581 asia low to the 0.5634 asia high. The move has since faded into a tight London range, with the london low near 0.5605 tested twice. Successive lower highs at 0.5618 and 0.5613 are compressing price toward that base, which sits around the 50% retracement of the Asia leg.
Support: 0.56052, 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56126, 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could break the London range either way
Failure to hold the 0.5605 london low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% fib near 0.5601
M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high and the 0.5618 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Breman at 17:15 UTC could reprice the October RBNZ hike premium
11:31 UTC
Post-rally pullback, flat in London · RSI 46 · price 0.56113
London range 0.5605–0.5618 below the Asian high.
The Asian rally from 0.5581 to the 0.5634 Asian high came on Conway's hawkish remarks and softer US yields. It has since retraced to the 38.2–50% fib zone. Late in the London session, price is pinned in a tight range: the 0.5605 London low has held twice, the 0.5618 London high caps it, and price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.5605, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~60 min) can break the London range in either direction
Failure to hold the 0.5605 London low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% fib near 0.5601
A close above the 0.5618 London high breaks the lower-high trendline from the Asian high
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could reprice the October hike premium
11:17 UTC
Post-CPI rebound stalled, ranging below Asia high · RSI 52 · price 0.56125
London range 0.5605–0.5618 inside Asia range, lower highs since 0.5634.
Pullback from the 0.5634 Asia high, set on Conway's 'completely open' RBNZ remark, found demand at the 0.5605 london low twice (06:30 and 10:30 UTC), near the 50% retracement of the Asia rally. London has stayed in a tight 0.5605–0.5618 range with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) about 4 pips ahead of US data.
Support: 0.56052, 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC could break the London range and reset this read
M15 close above 0.5618 london high completes the double bottom and opens the 0.5634 asia high
Failure to hold 0.5605 london low exposes the 0.5600 round number and 61.8% fib near 0.5601, then the 0.5581 rally origin
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC can shift NZD tone after the data
11:02 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 0.56086
Lower highs in London above a flat 0.5605 floor, inside the Asian range.
Conway's 'completely open' remark drove the Asian high at 0.5634 before the pair faded. Late in the London session price is trading inside the Asian range, with lower highs off the 0.5618 London high. The 0.5605 London low has held twice, near the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI rebound from 0.5565.
Support: 0.56052, 0.56016, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC, in about 90 minutes, could materially shift this read with ATR near 4 pips
An M15 close below the 0.5605 london low and the 0.5602 asian low breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.5600 round number in play
A close above the descending lower-highs line and the 0.5618 london high reopens the 0.5634 asian high
10:47 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, lower highs · RSI 40 · price 0.5607
Lower highs pressing flat support at 0.5605.
The Asia-session rally from the 0.5581 prior low, lifted by Conway's 'completely open' October remark and softer US yields, topped at the 0.5634 Asia high. London has since carved lower highs into a twice-tested London low at 0.5605, which sits on the 50% fib of that rally. RSI(14) is near 40 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56052, 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 london low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% fib near 0.5601
Reclaim of the 0.5618 london high breaks the lower highs trendline and negates the fade
0.5634 asia high caps the session; a loss of 0.5600 puts the 0.5581 prior low back in focus
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 41 · price 0.56062
Lower highs from 0.5634, pressing session low.
The hot US CPI flush to 0.5565 reversed as yields slid, and Asia ran to the 0.5634 asia high on Conway's 'completely open' remark. London has capped at a 0.5618 london high and is retesting the 0.5605 session low, around the 50% fib of the overnight rally, with RSI(14) at 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56053, 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number (61.8% fib) extends the lower-highs sequence toward the 0.5581 rollover low
Recovery above the 0.5618 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5634 asia high back in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman speaks at 17:15 UTC
Lower highs since 0.5634 into a flat 0.5605-0.5608 base.
Softer US yields and Conway's 'completely open' remark lifted NZD from the post-CPI 0.5565 low to a 0.5634 asian high. Since then the pair has made lower highs, with the falling trendline capping London at the 0.5618 london high. Price is back at the 38.2% fib near 0.5608, where the 0.5605 session low has held four times.
Support: 0.56053, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 session low opens the 50% fib at the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5618 london high breaks the falling trendline and puts the 0.5634 asian high back in view
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC; a walk-back of Conway's October hike framing would weigh on NZD
Lower highs from 0.5634 Asia high, tight 0.5605–0.5618 London band.
The Asian rally off the post-CPI lows topped at the 0.5634 asia high and has since faded into a 0.5605–0.5618 band through London. The swing low at 0.5605 sits near the 50% retrace of the Asia leg, with lower highs capping each bounce as NZD's rebound on softer US yields pauses ahead of US data.
Support: 0.5605, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.5634 asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% retrace of the Asia leg near 0.5601
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) likely to resolve the compression
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could shift the read if he walks back Conway's 'open' October framing
09:47 UTC
Recovery stalled, ranging below Asian high · RSI 53 · price 0.56143
London range 0.5605–0.5618 under a falling-highs line.
The post-CPI low at 0.5565 gave way to a 69-pip rally into the 0.5634 Asian high on softer US yields and Conway's hawkish remarks. The pullback held the 38.2% fib, which sits with the London low at 0.5608. London is now ranging between that low and the London high at 0.5618, beneath the falling-highs line, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 0.56078, 0.56053, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 London high breaks the falling-highs line and reopens the 0.5634 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 0.5600
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC on whether an October hike is live
09:32 UTC
Post-Asia pullback, flattening into a range · RSI 46 · price 0.56125
Lower highs from the 0.5634 Asian high; London boxed 0.5605–0.5618.
The hot US CPI drop to 0.5565 reversed overnight as yields slid, and Asia ran to an Asian high at 0.5634 after Conway's 'completely open' remark before rejection set in. London is ranging between the 0.5605 London low and the 0.5618 range top, holding near the 50% fib of the rally. RSI(14) is neutral at 46.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5605, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could break the London range either way
M15 close below the 0.5605 London low takes out the 50% fib and puts the 0.5600 round number in play
M15 close above the 0.5618 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5634 Asian high back in focus
Repeated tests of 0.5609 London lows without a break keep the range read intact
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could shift the read later in the NY session
09:17 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, stalling mid-range · RSI 44 · price 0.56103
Lower highs off 0.5634, higher low at 0.5608; London compressing 0.5608–0.5618.
After the CPI-driven drop to 0.5565, softer US yields and Conway's 'completely open' remark carried the pair from 0.5581 to the 0.5634 asia high. The pullback found demand at the 0.5605 swing low, near 50% of that rally. London has held a higher london low at 0.5608 but was capped at 0.5618 under the lower-highs line, with price now just below the ema20 at 0.5613.
Support: 0.56078, 0.56053, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5618 london high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5634 asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% retracement
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC is a second event risk for the kiwi
Lower highs off the Asia high; early-London range 0.5605–0.5618 above the 50% retracement.
Asia extended the rebound from the 0.5581 swing low to the 0.5634 Asia high as US yields slid and Conway kept an October RBNZ hike open, then faded into a 0.5605–0.5618 early-London range near the 50% retracement of the Asia rally. The latest push was rejected at the 0.5618 session high. RSI(14) ~44, with no momentum extreme.
Support: 0.56053, 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56344
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5605 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally near 0.5601
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high reopens the 0.5634 Asia high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) are likely to resolve the range; a hot print puts the 0.5581 swing low back in focus
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, stalling mid-retracement · RSI 49 · price 0.56134
Lower highs from 0.5634; London range 0.5605–0.5618.
The Asia rally on Conway's hawkish 'completely open' remark topped at 0.5634 (asia high). Price has since retraced about 54% of the 0.5581–0.5634 leg, with lower highs at 0.5629 and 0.5618 capping it. London is boxed between the 0.5605 london low and the 0.5618 london high, RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and price sits on EMA20.
Support: 0.56053, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56292, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 london low breaks the 61.8% fib zone and exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5618 london high and the falling highs line reopens the 0.5629 lower high and the 0.5634 asia high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h45m) could materially shift this read
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC is a second risk event for NZD
Lower highs off the Asian high, higher lows above 0.5605 in early London.
Asia extended the rebound from yesterday's CPI-driven 0.5565 low to a 0.5634 Asian high as US yields slid. Price then faded into the 0.5605 swing low, near the 50% rally retracement. Early London is basing above that low and pressing the 0.5618 London high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.5605, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 london high would put the 0.5634 asian high back in focus
Loss of the 0.5605 swing low and the 0.5600 round number would break the higher-low base
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, momentum flat · RSI 44 · price 0.56138
Lower highs from 0.5634, higher low at 0.5608 inside tight London range.
Asia session ran from 0.5581 to the 0.5634 Asian high on softer US yields and Conway's 'completely open' October remark. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and retraced to the 50% fib near the 0.5605 swing low. Early London is compressed between the 0.5608 London low and 0.5615 London high, just under the descending trendline.
Support: 0.56078, 0.56053, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56153, 0.56292, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5615 London high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 0.5629 lower high, then the 0.5634 Asian high
Failure below the 0.5605 swing low (50% fib) confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 round number
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman speaks at 17:15 UTC
Lower highs off 0.5634 asian high, near 50% of rally.
Asia session extended the post-CPI rebound on the US yield slide and Conway's 'completely open' October comment, but rejection at the 0.5634 asian high has produced a lower-highs pullback. London is consolidating near the 50% retracement of the rally, between the 0.5605 london low and the 0.5615 london high, just above the asian low and 0.5600 round number.
Support: 0.56053, 0.56016, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56153, 0.5620, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5602 asian low and 0.5600 round number exposes the 61.8% of the rally and breaks the Asia-session structure
Close above 0.5615 london high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5620 prior stall, then the 0.5634 asian high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC
Lower highs off the Asian high, early London compressing above 0.5605.
Conway's 'completely open' October comments drove the Asia rally to the 0.5634 asian high, but that move has unwound in a run of lower highs. The pre-London swing low at 0.5605 sits on the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI leg. Early London is capped by its 0.5615 session high, with price stuck between EMA20 and EMA50 and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 0.56053, 0.56016
Resistance: 0.56153, 0.56202, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low and 0.5602 asian low exposes the 50% fib near 0.5600
An M15 close above the 0.5615 london high and the 0.5620 breakdown level reopens the 0.5634 asian high
07:31 UTC
Asia uptrend, corrective pullback in progress · RSI 41 · price 0.56131
Lower highs off 0.5634 high, holding 50–61.8% fib zone.
The Asia session rally ran from 0.5581 to 0.5634, driven by the yield-led USD fade and Conway's RBNZ comments, but met rejection at the Asian high and has retraced into early London. Price is now compressing near 0.5613, with demand holding the 0.5605 pullback low between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asia rally and lower highs capping at 0.5615.
Support: 0.56053, 0.56013, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.5620, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5615 lower highs and the 0.5620 breakdown level reopens the 0.5634 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5601, with the 0.5581 Asian low below
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5634 session high; pullback holding between 50% and 61.8% fib.
The Asian session extended the post-CPI USD unwind from 0.5581 to a 0.5634 session high. That move met rejection just under the 0.5630-0.5635 cap, and a chain of lower highs then pulled price back to a 0.5605 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the rally. Early London is retesting 0.5612-0.5614, with the London high at 0.5614 capping so far and RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.56053, 0.56013, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56143, 0.56199, 0.56344
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5601 and the 0.5600 round number
A close above the 0.5620 lower high breaks the pullback sequence and reopens the 0.5634 session high
A move through the 0.5614 London high marks the first higher high since the pullback began
US retail sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC is the NZD-side risk
07:03 UTC
Pullback within the Asia rally, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 0.56128
Lower highs from the 0.5634 asian high, holding the 50% retracement.
The Asia rally from 0.5581 ran into rejection at the 0.5634 asian high, inside the 0.5630-0.5635 area that has capped recoveries, as the post-CPI USD spike unwound on lower yields. London open finds price at 0.5613 after a 0.5605 session low that held the 50% fib of the Asia rally. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and price sits just under the EMA20.
Support: 0.56053, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56344
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5620 shelf reopens the 0.5634 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% fib
US retail sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Pullback within the Asia rally, drifting lower · RSI 39 · price 0.56073
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5634 Asia high.
Asia lifted NZD/USD from 0.5581 to a 0.5634 Asia high as US yields unwound the CPI spike, but the move met rejection at the 0.5630-0.5635 cap. Price has since slid in a lower-high, lower-low sequence and sits just above the 0.5605 pullback low into London open, on the 38.2% fib (0.5608) with EMA50 alongside; RSI(14) is near 39.
Support: 0.56053, 0.56016, 0.55998
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.5622, 0.56344
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5605 pullback low and the 0.5602 prior pivot exposes the 50% fib and round number at 0.5600
A reclaim of the 0.5615 shelf and the lower-highs trendline breaks the pullback sequence, with 0.5622 lower high next
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.5634 Asia high marks the 0.5630-0.5635 cap
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC is a second event that could move the pair
06:17 UTC
Pullback within post-CPI rebound · RSI 44 · price 0.56108
Lower highs off the 0.5634 Asia high, testing 50% retrace.
After the US CPI flush to 0.5565, Asia carried NZD from the 0.5581 rollover low to a 0.5634 Asia high as US yields reversed. Price was rejected at the 0.5630-0.5635 cap and has posted lower highs into pre-London. It now sits on EMA50 near the pre-CPI 0.5611 area, just above the fib 50% of the Asia leg at 0.5608.
Support: 0.56076, 0.56016, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5602 swing low (61.8% of the Asia leg) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5581 rollover low
Close back above the 0.5620 prior shelf and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the pullback, with the 0.5634 Asia high above
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Pullback within post-CPI rebound · RSI 36 · price 0.56123
Lower highs from 0.5634 Asian high, testing pre-CPI low.
The hot US CPI drove a drop to 0.5565 in NY hours. The Asian session rebound on falling US yields was rejected at the 0.5634 Asian high, inside the 0.5630-0.5635 area that has capped recoveries. Late-Asia lower highs have pulled price back to the 0.5611 pre-CPI low, just above the fib 38.2 at 0.5608. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is about 5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5608, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5634
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5608 fib 38.2 and the 0.5602 swing low would deepen the retracement toward the 0.5600 fib 50 area
Reclaiming the 0.5620 breakdown level would neutralise the lower-high sequence from the Asian high
A London open break of the Asian range could shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Pullback within post-CPI rebound · RSI 40 · price 0.56136
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5634 Asia high.
Asia extended the rebound from the CPI-driven 0.5565 low to a 0.5634 Asia high as US yields eased. Rejection at that cap left a lower-high line, and price is now retesting the 0.5611 pre-cpi low into the London open; that low sits near the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5634
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5611 pre-cpi low extends the sequence toward the 0.5602 swing low, the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib
A close above the 0.5620 shelf and the lower-high line would neutralise the pullback and put the 0.5634 Asia high back in play
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC is a further NZD risk later today
05:32 UTC
Asian rally fading, lower highs off the session high · RSI 37 · price 0.56124
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5634 session high.
Softer US yields drove an Asian session rally off the post-CPI 0.5565 low, but it met rejection at the 0.5634 session high near the 0.5630-0.5635 cap. Price has since stepped down in lower highs to retest the 0.5612 pre-CPI low, with RSI(14) near 37 and the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI rally at 0.5608 just below.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5608, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5625, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5602 asian base undercuts the Asian rally structure and exposes the 50% retracement near 0.5600
Close back above the 0.5620 lower high, then the 0.5625 pre-cpi high, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5634 session high back in play
London open in ~1.5h is the first test of whether the 0.5612 pre-CPI low holds
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read, with RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC behind it
05:16 UTC
Post-CPI rebound stalled, pulling back in late Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.56149
Lower high at 0.5629 under Asia high, testing 38.2% of overnight leg.
Asia ran from the 0.5581 swing low to a 0.5634 Asia high as the dollar faded its hot-CPI spike, but stalled at the 0.5630-35 cap that has capped recent recoveries. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.5629, slipped through the 0.5620 shelf and now sits on the 38.2% retracement at the 0.5611 pre-CPI low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5602, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5629, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5611 pre-CPI low exposes the 0.5602 fib 61.8% retracement
Recovery back above the 0.5620 shelf and the 0.5629 lower high needed to retest the 0.5634 Asia high
Loss of 0.5602 puts the 0.5581 swing low back in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; RBNZ Breman speaks 17:15 UTC
05:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend, momentum fading in late Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.56177
Higher lows from the 0.5565 low; lower high at 0.5629 after the 0.5634 session high.
NZD/USD has retraced the entire hot US CPI drop from the 0.5565 low as the USD fade ran through Asia. The rally stalled at the 0.5634 session high, inside the 0.5630-0.5635 area that has capped recoveries. A lower high at 0.5629 followed, and price is now easing onto the fib 23.6 near 0.5618, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral around 50.
Support: 0.56181, 0.5608, 0.56016
Resistance: 0.56292, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 38.2 at 0.5608 breaks the rising trend from the 0.5565 low
Failure to hold the asia low at 0.5602 confirms a lower low after the session high
Close above the 0.5629 lower high and 0.5634 session high clears the recent ceiling
US PPI / retail sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Asia-session uptrend, now pulling back · RSI 57 · price 0.56196
HH/HL leg from 0.5581 capped at 0.5634, lower high 0.5629, price sitting on the 0.5618 pre-CPI level.
Conway's 'completely open' RBNZ remarks drove an Asia-session rally from the 0.5581 Asian low to the 0.5634 Asian high, but the 0.5630 cap rejected it and price has eased back to retest the 0.5618 pre-CPI level, with RSI(14) cooling to 57. A lower high at 0.5629 sits overhead, while the rally's 0.5602 swing low and the Asia trendline mark the higher-low structure late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5602, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 pre-CPI level exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.5614 and the 0.5602 swing low
Break of the 0.5602 swing low and the Asia trendline ends the HH/HL sequence off the 0.5581 Asian low
Close above the 0.5629 lower high and the 0.5634 Asian high clears the 0.5630 cap
London open in about 2h, then US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian rally capped at 0.5634, pulling back to pivot.
Conway's 'completely open' RBNZ remarks drove an Asian session rally from 0.5581 that erased the CPI drop. The move was rejected at the 0.5634 asian high, just through the 0.5630 cap, and a lower high formed at 0.5629. Late Asia, price is retesting the 0.5618 pre-cpi pivot, holding just above EMA20 and the rally trendline.
Support: 0.5618, 0.56083, 0.56016
Resistance: 0.56292, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 pre-cpi pivot and the rally trendline exposes the 0.5608 swing low and the 0.5601 61.8% fib
Close back above the 0.5629 lower high puts the 0.5634 asian high and the 0.5630 cap back in play
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Asia uptrend, pulling back with lower highs · RSI 57 · price 0.56203
Post-rally pullback testing the rising Asia trendline.
The Asia session rallied from 0.5581 to a 0.5634 session high on Conway's 'completely open' RBNZ remarks, erasing the post-US CPI drop to 0.5565. Rejection at the high has printed a lower-high sequence into 0.5629. Price is now retesting the 0.5618 swing low near the rising Asia trendline, with RSI(14) cooled to about 57 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5634
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5618 swing low and the Asia trendline confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5602 range base at the fib 61.8%
A recovery through the 0.5629 lower high and the 0.5634 session high would resume the Asia advance
London open in about 3h, then US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 64 · price 0.5626
V-shaped recovery of CPI drop, tight pause below asia high.
The Asia session has fully reversed Wednesday's US CPI-driven slide to 0.5565, rallying from 0.5581 to an asia high of 0.5634 after Conway called the October RBNZ decision 'completely open'. Price is now holding a narrow 0.5623 pullback low to 0.5629 minor high band late in Asia, with RSI(14) easing to about 64.
Support: 0.5623, 0.5614, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5634
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5634 asia high clears the 0.5630 cap that has capped recoveries this week
Failure to hold the 0.5623 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5614, then the 0.5602 swing low near the asia trendline
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speech at 17:15 UTC is the next NZD-side catalyst
Asia HH/HL chain retraced the full CPI drop; capped at 0.5630–0.5634.
Asia session has erased the whole US CPI drop. Price rallied from the 0.5581 post-rollover low to a 0.5634 session high after Conway called the October RBNZ decision 'completely open'. The first push through the 0.5630 cap was rejected, but the pullback low at 0.5624 held above the 0.5618 higher low, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.5624, 0.5618, 0.5614
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5634 session high clears the 0.5630 cap that has held all week
Loss of the 0.5624 pullback low, then the 0.5618 higher low, breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5614
Asia trendline from 0.5581 marks the floor of the Asia rally
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below the session high · RSI 64 · price 0.56247
Asia HH/HL chain off the 0.5581 low; rejection at 0.5634.
The Asia session has fully retraced the post-CPI drop to 0.5565. RBNZ's Conway 'completely open' comments lifted price to a session high at 0.5634, where it was rejected back to 0.5625. Price is sitting just under the pre-CPI high at 0.5627, RSI(14) has cooled to 64, and the Asia rising support and HL chain hold above the 0.5618 pullback low.
Support: 0.56183, 0.56139, 0.56016
Resistance: 0.56276, 0.56344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5634 session high clears the 0.5630 cap that has held all week
A break of the 0.5618 pullback low ends the Asia HL chain, exposing fib 38.2 at 0.5614, then the rising support and the 0.5602 swing low
US Retail Sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, rejected at session high · RSI 65 · price 0.56245
HH/HL chain through Asia, CPI drop fully retraced.
The hot US CPI drop to 0.5565 has been fully retraced in the Asia session. Price pushed through the pre-CPI high at 0.5627 to a session high of 0.5634, but the 02:45 UTC bar was rejected and price is back near 0.5624. RSI(14) has cooled to about 65, with the HL chain still intact above the cpi break level at 0.5619 and the asia pivot at 0.5602.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.56274, 0.56344
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5634 session high resumes the HH chain; holding below the pre-cpi high keeps the false break read live
A loss of 0.5619 (cpi break) breaks the asia trendline sequence and puts the 38.2% fib near 0.5608 and the asia pivot at 0.5602 in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, and RBNZ Breman later today at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into Asia · RSI 76 · price 0.56299
HH/HL chain from 0.5581, post-CPI drop fully retraced.
The Asia rally has fully retraced Wednesday's CPI-driven drop to 0.5565. Price printed a session high at 0.5634 and is holding just above the 0.5628 prior high from before the release, which also sits inside the 0.5620-0.5630 cap from the past week. The HH/HL chain is intact along the rally trendline from 0.5581, with the 0.5618 pullback low the first higher low and RSI(14) at 76, hot but below extreme.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5618, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5628 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5618 pullback low and the rally trendline breaks the HH/HL chain; the 0.5602 swing low sits near the 61.8% of the Asia rally
Acceptance above the 0.5634 session high opens the 0.5650 round number
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman speaks at 17:15 UTC
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 71 · price 0.56229
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia; full CPI drop retraced.
The Asia session has retraced the entire hot-CPI drop as the USD faded, climbing from the 0.5581 rollover low to a 0.5628 session high, where an upper-wick rejection printed. The pre-CPI level at 0.5619 is holding as near support, with RSI(14) around 71 and the 0.5630 prior high just overhead.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5602, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 prior high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 0.5619 pre-CPI level shifts focus to the 0.5602 swing low and the rising trendline
Break below the 0.5602 swing low ends the Asia higher-low sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 70 · price 0.56195
HH/HL chain from 0.5581 Asian low, full retrace of CPI drop.
The Asia session extended the recovery from yesterday's CPI low at 0.5565 as the USD faded. Price has now erased the full post-CPI drop and is back at the pre-cpi base near 0.5618. The 02:15 UTC bar was rejected at the 0.5628 session high, just under the 0.5630 prior high, while the rising trendline and the 0.5608 higher low keep the HL chain intact.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56083, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56276, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 prior high clears yesterday's range top
Close back below the 0.5618 pre-cpi base turns the session-high rejection into a failed recovery
Break of the 0.5608 higher low and the round number 0.5600 ends the HL chain off the Asian low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; RBNZ Breman follows at 17:15 UTC
02:17 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 80 · price 0.56259
Higher-low chain off 0.5581, retesting pre-CPI highs.
Asia session has fully unwound the US CPI drop to 0.5565 as the dollar faded with yields. Price reclaimed 0.5580 and 0.5600 and broke above 0.5617 in the latest bar to an asia high at 0.5626, just under the prior high at 0.5630. RSI(14) near 80 after the 15-pip burst, with the higher low at 0.5602 underpinning the leg.
Support: 0.56168, 0.56016, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56264, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 prior high clears the pre-CPI top of the window
Slip back below the 0.5617 breakout area would mark a rejection at the 0.5620-0.5630 cap
Break of the 0.5602 higher low or the rising trendline ends the Asia HL chain; rollover low 0.5581 sits below
US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 68 · price 0.56097
HH/HL chain from 0.5565 CPI low; Asian high capping.
The post-CPI drop to the 0.5565 CPI low has been almost fully retraced as yields faded into the Asia session, with price back near the 0.5619 pre-release level. The Asian high at 0.5617 has rejected two tests, while dips toward the Asia lows around 0.5602 keep drawing buyers and the swing-low trendline stays intact.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5581, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5602 Asia lows breaks the swing-low trendline and the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.5581 swing low reopens the 0.5565 CPI low
Close above the 0.5617 Asian high exposes the 0.5630 prior high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia session extended the NY-afternoon rebound as Treasury yields faded, retracing ~88% of the hot-CPI drop from 0.5619 to 0.5565 before stalling at a 0.5616 session high. Price is compressing in a 0.5602–0.5616 range, and the latest bar swept the range low and closed back near the top with RSI(14) near 74.
Support: 0.56016, 0.55929, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56163, 0.56193
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5616 session high puts the 0.5619 pre-CPI high in play
Failure to hold the 0.5602 range low exposes the 0.5593 prior high and the 0.5581 Asian low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Sharp Asian recovery, stalling below pre-CPI high · RSI 71 · price 0.56067
V-retrace of the CPI drop; HH/HL chain through Asia, now a tight 0.5603–0.5616 range.
The hot US CPI print broke the pair from 0.5619 to a 0.5565 NY low, but the Asian rally from the 0.5581 session low has retraced almost the entire drop as the post-CPI USD move faded. Wick rejection at the 0.5616 session high leaves price ranging just above the 0.5603 range low. RSI(14) is cooling to ~71 from near 80.
Support: 0.56028, 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56163, 0.56193, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5616 session high brings the 0.5619 pre-cpi high and 0.5630 prior high into play
Loss of the 0.5603 range low exposes 0.5600 psych and the Asian rally fib 50% near 0.5599
Break back below the 0.5581 session low would erase the Asian rally
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
V-shaped recovery, higher highs through Asia · RSI 72 · price 0.56096
HH/HL chain off the 0.5581 rollover low, capped just under the pre-CPI high.
The hot US CPI print knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5619 pre-CPI high to 0.5565 during NY hours. The Asia session has since retraced about 80% of that drop, with a wick rejection at the 0.5616 Asia high. Price is holding above the 0.5603 Asia low, the 0.5600 round number and rising support from the 0.5581 rollover low.
Support: 0.56028, 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56163, 0.56193
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 pre-CPI high erases the CPI drop and invalidates the 0.5580-0.5600 broken-support read
Close below the 0.5603 Asia low breaks rising support and puts the 0.5600 round number in play
Failure to hold 0.5600 reopens the 0.5581 rollover low
US PPI / retail sales at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.5581, stalling under pre-CPI level.
The hot US CPI drop to 0.5565 has been almost fully retraced. The NY recovery extended through early Asia session and reclaimed the 0.5600 round number. A probe to the 0.5616 session high was rejected just under the 0.5619 pre-cpi level, with RSI(14) near 79.
Support: 0.56028, 0.5600, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.56163, 0.56193, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5619 pre-cpi level erases the CPI drop and opens the 0.5630 prior high
Loss of the 0.5603 wick low and the rally trendline exposes the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5592 asia base
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 0.5581 post-NY low, ~80% retrace of the CPI drop.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked the pair 54 pips from the 0.5619 cpi high to 0.5565. It has since retraced about 80% of that CPI drop through late NY and early Asia, reclaiming 0.5600 and pressing the 0.5613 session high. A rising trendline from the 0.5581 post-NY low has carried the climb, with RSI(14) near 76 and the current bar probing the line.
Support: 0.56028, 0.55986, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56131, 0.56193
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 0.5603 swing low marks the first lower-low of the rebound and exposes fib 61.8 at 0.5599
Acceptance above the 0.5613 session high and the 0.5611 pre-CPI floor opens the 0.5619 cpi high
Loss of the 0.5581 post-NY low puts the 0.5565 CPI low back in play
US PPI/Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and RBNZ's Breman (17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 73 · price 0.56065
HH/HL chain since 0.5581, reclaimed 0.5600.
The overnight rally from the 0.5581 low after the NY close has retraced most of the hot-CPI drop. It reclaimed the 0.5580 range floor and the 0.5600 round number on a steady HH/HL chain into the Asia session. Price is now stalling just under the 0.5610 session high, with RSI(14) near 73 and a 0.5603 swing low beneath; the pre-CPI high at 0.5620 and yesterday's 0.5630 prior high sit above.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5603, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5620, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline (~0.5605) and the 0.5603 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5580 range floor
Close above the 0.5610 session high exposes the 0.5620 pre-CPI high, then the 0.5630 prior high
US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~12h) and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from 0.5565 post-CPI low, higher lows and higher highs.
The hot US CPI drove a 54-pip drop to 0.5565. Since then the pair has climbed in a higher-low chain, and early Asia has carried it back through 0.5592, the NY range top, and the 0.5600 psych level, retracing roughly 80% of the CPI move as Treasury yields reversed. RSI(14) near 79 after an almost unbroken run of higher closes, with price pressing the 0.5611 pre-CPI low.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56112, 0.56193, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5611 pre-CPI low keeps this a retracement of the CPI drop; acceptance above opens the 0.5619 CPI high, then the 0.5630 prior high
M15 close back below the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5592 NY range top would undercut the breakout
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5581 swing low returns focus to the 0.5565 post-CPI low
US PPI/retail sales cluster at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read