NZD/USD has faded steadily since Monday's open, with the dominant down leg printed during the NY session as a sharp drop sliced through 0.5800 and bottomed near 0.5745 — consistent with the hawkish-Fed repricing and the oil-driven unwind of the RBNZ rate-hike story. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s, and the 0.5800 pivot that broke is now capping rebounds. Bounces into 0.5779 have been sold each session.
Support: 0.57448, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.57794, 0.5800, 0.5843
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5800 pivot would invalidate the bearish structure
Failure to hold 0.5745 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
NZ Trade Balance release could trigger a relief bid toward 0.5779
23:03 UTC
Downtrend, fade from weekly open · RSI 42 · price 0.57586
Lower highs, basing near week lows.
NZDUSD opened the week near 0.5854 and faded steadily under a chain of lower highs, with the dominant leg a sharp NY-session breakdown that drove the pair from 0.5818 to 0.5752 on heavy range expansion. Price has since consolidated just under 0.5760, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50, as a hawkish Fed and falling oil erode the RBNZ rate-hike narrative. RSI(14) sits subdued in the low 40s, with rebounds capped under the mid-0.5800s.
Support: 0.5745, 0.5755
Resistance: 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5854
What it said to watch
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift the near-term read
H1 close above 0.5800 pivot invalidates the downside read
Loss of 0.5745 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Lower highs, lower lows; consolidating near week lows.
NZD reversed from the 0.5843 swing high mid-week and broke down sharply, undercut by falling oil eroding the RBNZ rate-hike story and a hawkish-Fed bid for the dollar, pressing into the 0.5752 low. A bounce toward 0.5798 faded back below EMA20 and price is now grinding sideways just above the lows. RSI(14) sits near 39, reflecting fading downside momentum without a clear turn.
Support: 0.57448, 0.5752, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5800, 0.58433
What it said to watch
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC (no forecast) could move the pair next bar
Failure to hold the 0.5745 session low confirms a fresh lower low
H1 close above 0.5800 round number invalidates the downtrend read
NZD/USD has rolled over from Monday's 0.5864 high, with the dominant leg lower a sharp session drop through 0.5800 down to the 0.5752 area as the RBNZ rate-hike story eroded against a hawkish Fed and softer oil. Price now grinds along the lows around 0.575 below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) holding in the low 40s. The 0.5775 prior high has capped the latest bounce, keeping the lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 0.5745, 0.5752
Resistance: 0.5775, 0.5795, 0.5800
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5775 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5745 swing low confirms continuation lower
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could move NZD into the next bars
Reclaim of 0.5800 psych would neutralise the downside read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, near session lows · RSI 39 · price 0.57527
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's drop.
NZDUSD broke down hard through the GDP/Fed double-header, slicing from the 0.5800 pivot to 0.5752 in two NY-session bars as a hawkish Warsh Fed and firmer dollar overwhelmed the Q1 GDP beat. The early-NY bounce toward 0.5790 was sold and price has since drifted to retest the swing low at 0.5749. Held below EMA20 and EMA50 all session with RSI(14) hugging the high-30s.
Support: 0.57488, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.57756, 0.5790, 0.5800
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5790 faded-bounce zone questions the lower-high sequence
Loss of 0.5749 swing low confirms continuation lower
S&P Global PMIs Jun 23 and Core PCE Jun 25 could materially shift the USD leg
Lower highs, lower lows since reversal off 0.5864.
Kiwi opened the week firmer near 0.5850 but reversed from 0.5864 and has trended lower since, accelerating on the GDP/Fed double-header where a hawkish Warsh Fed and fading oil undercut the rate-hike story. Price now sits sub-0.5760, below both the H1 EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the 0.5800 pivot lost and rallies into 0.5790 capped. RSI(14) holds in the low 40s, tracking the grind toward the week low at 0.5749.
Support: 0.5749, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5768, 0.5790, 0.5800
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.5749 week low confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of the 0.5800 pivot needed to ease downside pressure
NZ Westpac Consumer Survey and Trade Balance ahead could shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, near week lows · RSI 41 · price 0.57533
Lower highs and lower lows since the Fed drop.
NZDUSD has trended lower all week, with the decisive leg coming on the GDP/Fed double-header — a hawkish Warsh FOMC and firm USD overwhelmed the Q1 GDP beat and dropped price from the 0.5817 area to 0.5752. A bounce into 0.5798 during the prior NY session was sold, and price now sits back at the 0.5749 swing low with RSI(14) pinned in the low 40s and trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 0.5800 pivot, lost mid-week, now caps from above.
Support: 0.57488, 0.57522, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.58178
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5749 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 0.5800 pivot needed to challenge the downtrend
Westpac Consumer Survey (21:00 UTC) and NZ Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) could shift the near-term read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum heavy · RSI 40 · price 0.57533
Lower highs and lower lows since FOMC break.
NZDUSD broke down hard through the NY session yesterday, sliding from 0.5818 to the low 0.5750s after the hawkish Warsh FOMC repriced the dollar higher. The early bounce into 0.5790-0.5800 faded and price now sits pinned beneath EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) hugging the high-30s. The 0.5800 pivot, held all week, has flipped to capping resistance.
Support: 0.57488, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5780, 0.5800, 0.5850
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.57488 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 0.5800 pivot needed to ease the downtrend
US Flash PMIs (Tue) and Core PCE (Thu) are the dominant near-term USD catalysts
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum heavy · RSI 39 · price 0.57533
Lower highs, lower lows after pivot break.
Kiwi accelerated lower mid-window, slicing through the 0.5800 weekly pivot on the hawkish Warsh Fed and GDP double-header — that single sharp leg dragged price from above 0.5815 down to 0.5752 in two bars. The recovery into NY hours stalled at 0.5775 and rolled over again, leaving price pinned at session lows below both EMAs. RSI(14) sits near 38 with no bullish divergence yet as the 0.5800 pivot now caps from above.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5850
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.5750 round number opens fresh lower lows
Reclaim of 0.5800 weekly pivot needed to ease the downside read
S&P Global flash PMIs Tue could firm USD and extend the move
NZDUSD broke down hard through the GDP/Fed double-header, slicing from 0.5818 to 0.5752 in two H1 bars as a hawkish Warsh Fed and falling crude undercut the Kiwi. The bounce into 0.5798 faded and price has since carved lower highs back to the week low, holding below EMA(20) with RSI(14) pinned in the high-30s. The 0.5800 pivot now caps from above and supply has repeatedly checked rallies into 0.5775.
Support: 0.57522, 0.57541
Resistance: 0.5776, 0.5800
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.5800 pivot would neutralise the lower-high structure
Loss of 0.5752 week low opens room beneath
NZ Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) and Westpac Consumer Survey (21:00 UTC) could shift the near-term read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, sitting on lows · RSI 39 · price 0.57537
Lower highs, lower lows since Fed.
The Kiwi broke down hard through 0.5800 on the hawkish Fed double-header, dropping from ~0.5817 to a 0.57522 session low in two H1 bars. The subsequent bounce stalled at 0.5798 and price has rolled back to retest the lows, holding below both EMAs with RSI(14) pinned in the high-30s. Falling crude continues to undercut the rate-hike story, leaving rallies into 0.5795-0.5800 capped this week.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5775, 0.5798, 0.5800
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.57522 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 0.5750
Reclaim of 0.5800 pivot would neutralise the breakdown read
0.5775 session high — area to watch for rejection or break
NZ Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) could disturb the low-side compression
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, near lows · RSI 37 · price 0.57537
Lower highs, lower lows since Wednesday.
NZDUSD broke down hard through the 0.5800 pivot on the hawkish Fed repricing, the high-volume drop from 0.5818 to the 0.5752 area marking the decisive leg lower. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI pressed into the high-30s, and bounces back toward 0.5775 have been sold through the NY session. The 0.5750–0.5752 weekly low is now the active support shelf.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5850
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5752 confirms a fresh lower-low
Recovery above 0.5800 pivot needed to neutralise the breakdown
0.5850 reject zone remains the cap on any larger bounce
NZDUSD has trended lower all week from the 0.5864 area, with the sharpest leg coming on the hawkish Fed repricing that broke price through 0.5800 and down to a 0.57522 week low. The pair sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the low 40s; the bounce into 0.5775 faded and price is back near 0.5756. The 0.5800 pivot, which held as support through the week, is now overhead resistance.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5750
Resistance: 0.57756, 0.5800, 0.58194
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.57756 would ease the lower-high sequence
Loss of 0.57522 week low opens the 0.5750 psych area and below
S&P Global PMIs Tue and NZ Trade Balance could shift the USD-led read
NZDUSD broke down hard during yesterday's NY session as the hawkish Warsh Fed repriced the dollar higher, dropping the pair from the 0.5820 area to a 0.57522 week low. A bounce into 0.5799 faded and price now sits back near 0.5756, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) hovering around 40. The 0.5800 pivot and 0.5777 session high have capped recovery attempts since the break.
Support: 0.57522, 0.57541
Resistance: 0.57767, 0.57989, 0.5800
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5800 pivot would neutralise the downtrend read
Loss of the 0.57522 week low confirms continuation lower
US S&P Global PMIs Tue and Core PCE Thu are the next dollar catalysts
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, near week lows · RSI 41 · price 0.57584
Lower highs, lower lows since mid-week.
NZD/USD has trended lower since mid-week, accelerating through the 0.5800 pivot as the hawkish Fed repricing and falling crude undercut the Kiwi rate-hike story. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) sub-45, and a bounce off the 0.57522 week low has stalled under 0.5779. The 0.5800 pivot now caps rebounds from above.
Support: 0.5755, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5779, 0.5800, 0.5850
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5800 pivot would challenge the lower-high sequence
Loss of 0.57522 week low confirms continuation lower
NZ Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) and Westpac survey could shift this read
NZDUSD broke down through the 0.5800 pivot during the NY session as a hawkish Warsh Fed and falling crude undercut the Kiwi's rate-hike support, dragging price to a 0.57522 week low. The subsequent bounce stalled at 0.5790 and price is back at the lows, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50. The descending sequence of lower highs from midweek remains intact.
Support: 0.57569, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5780, 0.5790, 0.5800
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.57522 week low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
An H1 close back above 0.5800 pivot would neutralise the breakdown read
NZ Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) and broad USD tone could shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 43 · price 0.57724
Lower highs, lower lows post-breakdown.
Price held the 0.5820-0.5860 range from Monday's open until a sharp NY-hours selloff drove it through 0.5800 to a week low of 0.57522, consistent with the broad USD bid after the hawkish Warsh Fed. The pair has since based around 0.5772, with a bounce to 0.5799 rejected and price trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) sits near 43, recovering off the breakdown lows without reclaiming midline.
Support: 0.5755, 0.57522, 0.5775
Resistance: 0.5799, 0.5800, 0.5860
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.57522 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 0.5800 would negate the breakdown read
NZ Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) could move the Kiwi into the next session
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to stabilise · RSI 43 · price 0.57724
Lower highs and lower lows, holding above week low.
NZDUSD broke down hard through the 0.5800 range floor mid-week as the hawkish Warsh FOMC and a firmer dollar dominated, printing a week low at 0.57522 before a recovery toward 0.5797 stalled. Price sits back below EMA20 and EMA50 with lower highs intact; the late bounce into the NY session has only retraced part of the slide. RSI(14) is mid-40s, recovering off oversold but not yet confirming a turn.
Support: 0.5755, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5797, 0.5800, 0.5842
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.57522 week low confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 0.5800 psych would neutralise the breakdown read
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
NZDUSD broke down out of this week's 0.5800-0.5860 range during yesterday's NY session, sliding to 0.57522 as a hawkish Fed kept the USD firm. The bounce back to 0.5798 was rejected and price has rolled over toward the lows, trading below both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) is holding in the low-40s with no bullish divergence into the latest leg down.
Support: 0.5755, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5800
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5800 prior range would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.57522 week low confirms continuation lower
NZ Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) could shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 43 · price 0.57724
Range break lower, lower-lows holding.
NZDUSD broke below the week's 0.5800-0.5860 range during the NY session yesterday as the hawkish-Warsh USD bid dominated, sliding to a 0.5752 spike low. A recovery into 0.5795 stalled and the pair has since rolled over to retest the 0.5755 zone, trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) is cycling in the low-40s, consistent with the breakdown structure.
Support: 0.5755, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5779, 0.5795, 0.5800
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5795 swing high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.5755 swing low opens the path toward the 0.57522 spike low
NZ Westpac consumer survey (21:00 UTC) and Trade Balance (22:45 UTC) could shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend since Wed breakdown · RSI 43 · price 0.57701
Lower highs, lower lows below 0.5800.
NZDUSD broke down hard during the NY session Wednesday, dropping from 0.5820 to a 0.5752 session low as the hawkish Fed and Warsh's debut lifted the dollar through 100 on DXY. The bounce toward 0.5799 was rejected and price has since drifted back toward session lows, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50. Structure remains a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Support: 0.57522, 0.57586
Resistance: 0.5799, 0.5810, 0.5800
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5800 would invalidate the downtrend read
Break below 0.57522 confirms a fresh lower low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.57701
Lower highs into week-low retest.
NZDUSD broke down from this week's 0.5810-0.5860 range into the NY session, dumping to 0.5752 as the hawkish Fed repricing kept the dollar firm. The bounce stalled at 0.5798 — a 61.8% retrace of the drop — and price has since faded back toward the week low, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) parked in the low 40s.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5755
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5800, 0.58178
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.57522 confirms a lower low and extends the breakdown
Reclaim of the 0.5800 psych level and 0.5798 swing high negates the downtrend read
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 38 · price 0.57588
Lower highs and lower lows after range break.
NZDUSD broke the week's 0.5775-0.5864 range to the downside on the hawkish-Fed-driven USD bid, gapping lower into the FOMC reaction and printing 0.57522. The bounce stalled at 0.5798 before rolling over to retest the week low, with price holding below EMA20 and EMA50 throughout. RSI(14) near 37 reflects the persistent downside pressure without yet reaching washed-out levels.
Support: 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5800, 0.5819
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5800 would neutralise the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.57522 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
The Kiwi broke down hard out of the week's 0.5775-0.5864 range after the hawkish FOMC, with the 0.5818-to-0.5752 leg printing the largest bars of the window. A bounce into the NY session stalled at 0.5798 before sellers resumed, and price now trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pinned in the low-30s. The 0.5798 area has capped recovery attempts while 0.57522 marks the week low.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5755
Resistance: 0.5780, 0.5798, 0.5816
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5798 invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.57522 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens the 0.5755 area
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, near week lows · RSI 38 · price 0.57589
Lower highs after a sharp impulse down, retrace rejected.
NZDUSD broke sharply lower in yesterday's US session as the hawkish FOMC hold firmed the dollar, slicing from the mid-0.5810s to a 0.57522 low. The bounce back to 0.5798 was rejected and price has since rolled over, now pressing the week lows again with RSI(14) sub-40 and price trading below EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.5775-0.5752 zone is the immediate downside reference.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5775
Resistance: 0.5785, 0.57989, 0.5800
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.57522 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 0.5785 EMA20 needed to ease downside pressure
Close above 0.58 psych invalidates the lower-high read
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, near week lows · RSI 40 · price 0.57589
Range break, lower highs forming.
The Kiwi chopped in a 0.5775-0.5864 range most of the week before a sharp NY-session breakdown drove price to 0.57522, the falling-oil drag and hawkish-Fed tilt undermining the rate-hike story. A bounce to 0.57989 was capped and price has since rolled back below EMA(20)/EMA(50), now pressing the lows near 0.5759. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s with no bullish divergence as fresh lows print.
Support: 0.57522, 0.57576
Resistance: 0.57989, 0.5820, 0.58433
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.57522 confirms a lower low and extends the breakdown
Reclaim of 0.57989 needed to neutralise the lower-highs sequence
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC and Westpac survey 21:00 UTC could shift this read
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC may move the dollar leg
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 40 · price 0.57652
Lower highs, lower lows after range break.
NZD broke below the week's 0.5775 floor through the NY session as the hawkish Fed hold powered a broad dollar bid, sweeping the week low to 0.57522 before a bounce to 0.5798 rolled over again. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI sub-40, and the 0.5798 bounce high now caps as a lower high. Structure has flipped to lower-highs, lower-lows after the range break.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.5798
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.57522 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above 0.5798 bounce high would neutralise the downside read
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 39 · price 0.57652
Range break lower, carving lower highs.
The 0.5775–0.5864 range that held all week broke down after the hawkish FOMC repriced the dollar path, with the sharp drop through 0.5800 dragging price to the 0.57522 week low. A bounce back toward 0.5798 was capped and price has since faded to fresh session lows near 0.5765, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) sits in the high-30s, reflecting the dominant downside momentum without yet reaching oversold.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5800, 0.58424
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5800 would neutralise the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.57522 confirms a lower low and extends the decline
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
NZDUSD sold off sharply during the NY session yesterday, dropping from 0.5818 to the 0.5752 week low after the hawkish-Fed repricing and softer oil undermined the rate-hike thesis. Asia bought it back to a 0.5798 recovery high, but that has faded and price now sits at 0.5766 below both EMA20 and EMA50, RSI cycling in the low-40s. The recovery high marks a lower high beneath the 0.58222 weekly open.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5818, 0.58222
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.57522 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 0.57980 recovery high needed to neutralise the downtrend read
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC may drive the next leg
Kiwi chopped in a 0.5775-0.5864 band most of the week before a sharp selloff broke the range lows, printing 0.5752 as the firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop weighed. The recovery into the NY session stalled at 0.5798 and price is back below EMA20 and EMA50, sliding toward the week's lows again. RSI(14) sits near 39, reflecting the renewed downside pressure without yet reaching oversold.
Support: 0.5752, 0.5762
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5816, 0.5860
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.5752 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 0.5798 bounce high needed to ease downside pressure
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift the read on a weak export print
Lower highs into break below 0.5800, basing near lows.
NZDUSD spent the week capped under the 0.5860 rejection zone before a sharp break lower yesterday into the NY session, dropping to 0.57522 as the Q1 GDP QoQ miss met a hawkish Warsh FOMC and a firmer dollar. Price has since consolidated 0.5775–0.5800, with 0.5800 now acting as flipped resistance after holding as support earlier in the week. Sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but staying sub-50.
Support: 0.5775, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5860
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5800 invalidates the flipped-resistance read
Failure to hold 0.5775 reopens the 0.57522 session low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend after breakdown · RSI 44 · price 0.57829
Range break lower, corrective bounce stalling.
The Kiwi held a 0.5815-0.5860 range through midweek before breaking down hard into the NY session on the Q1 GDP QoQ miss and a hawkish-FOMC-driven USD bid, losing 0.5800 and tagging 0.5752. Price has since corrected back toward 0.5798 but stalled, fading under EMA20 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but capped below 50. The 0.5800 former-support level now acts as the immediate ceiling.
Support: 0.5775, 0.5752
Resistance: 0.5798, 0.5800, 0.5860
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5800 invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.5775 reopens the 0.5752 drop low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
NZDUSD held a 0.5800–0.5860 range for most of the week before a hawkish Warsh-led FOMC lit up the USD and drove a sharp break through 0.5800 during the NY session, printing a weekly low at 0.57522. Price has since clawed back into the high-0.5700s through the Asia session and is now consolidating around 0.5790, just under the reclaimed EMA(20). RSI(14) has recovered off oversold to the mid-40s, but price remains below both H1 EMAs.
Support: 0.5775, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.58178, 0.5860
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5800 / 0.58178 would neutralise the FOMC downside break
Failure to hold the 0.5775 recovery low exposes the 0.57522 weekly low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC and lingering post-FOMC USD direction could reshape this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, recovery stalling · RSI 45 · price 0.57898
Broke this-week range, grinding back to retest broken floor.
The hawkish FOMC hold and resulting USD surge drove NZDUSD out of the 0.5800–0.5860 range it held since Monday, with a sharp ~65 pip flush to 0.5752 during the NY session. Price has since clawed back to the high-0.5790s, stalling just under the broken 0.5800 floor and EMA20 as RSI recovered from oversold to the mid-40s. The move keeps price below both EMAs, with 0.5800 now acting as overhead supply.
Support: 0.5765, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5819, 0.5860
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5800 reclaims the broken range floor
Failure to hold 0.5765 reopens the 0.5752 swing low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the USD bid
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 47 · price 0.57898
Range break lower, recovering to fib 50%.
NZD/USD broke this week's 0.5800–0.5860 range to the downside on the hawkish FOMC, spiking to 0.5752 before buyers stepped in. Price has since recovered to the 50% retracement near 0.5797 but is stalling under the 0.5800 psych level, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) has lifted off oversold into the low 40s–50 zone as the bounce matured through the Asia session.
Support: 0.57522, 0.57658
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5820, 0.5860
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5800 psych opens the path back toward the 0.5820 prior range
Failure to hold 0.5752 swing low confirms a lower-low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
NZDUSD broke sharply lower into the NY session as the hawkish FOMC and Warsh repricing drove the USD bid, slicing through 0.5800 to a 0.57522 week low. Price has since clawed back into the Asia session toward 0.5790, but remains under EMA20/EMA50 with the 0.5800 psych level capping the recovery. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold to mid-40s as the post-spike bounce matures.
Support: 0.5775, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5817, 0.5860
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5800 psych would neutralise the downside break
Reclaim of 0.5817 prior high reopens the 0.5860 rejection zone
Failure to hold 0.5775 swing low exposes the 0.57522 week low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend the USD move
05:03 UTC
Downtrend after range break, recovering · RSI 47 · price 0.57941
Broke below week range, lower low then retrace.
NZD held the 0.5800-0.5860 range most of the week before a hawkish-Warsh FOMC and hotter US retail sales drove a sharp break, slicing through 0.5800 to a 0.5752 low during the NY session. Price has since clawed back eight straight bars toward 0.5795 with RSI(14) lifting off oversold, but it sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), keeping the broken 0.5800 floor as the immediate cap.
Support: 0.57658, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5820, 0.58637
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.5800 broken floor would neutralise the downside break
Failure to hold 0.5760 reopens the 0.5752 fomc low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
NZDUSD held a tight 0.5810-0.5840 range for most of the week before the FOMC bar gapped it lower; Warsh's hawkish debut and the hot US retail print firmed the dollar, slicing through 0.5810 to a 0.57522 low. Price has since clawed back toward 0.5794, retesting the broken floor from below with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but still under 50. Both EMAs sit overhead after the impulse.
Support: 0.57617, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5816, 0.5830
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 0.5800 then 0.58160 would invalidate the downside break
Failure to hold the recovery and a slip under 0.57522 confirms a lower-low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC and Westpac survey at 21:00 UTC could shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend after breakdown, bouncing · RSI 50 · price 0.57977
Broke weekly range low, recovering toward broken support.
NZDUSD spent most of the week hemmed in 0.5810-0.5860 with the 0.5860 zone rejecting repeatedly, before a sharp post-FOMC USD bid drove the pair through 0.5810 support to a 0.57522 week low during yesterday's NY session. Price has since recovered to retest the broken 0.5800 round level from below, but trades under both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) has lifted back near 50 off oversold as the bounce develops.
Support: 0.5780, 0.5765, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5811, 0.5828
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5810 prior support would signal a reclaim of the broken level
Failure to hold 0.5780 psych reopens the 0.57522 week low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC and ongoing post-FOMC USD direction could shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 48 · price 0.57977
Range break lower, recovering.
Price held a tight 0.5810–0.5840 range through midweek before a sharp break lower on the hawkish FOMC hold and hot US retail sales, plunging to a 0.57522 session low. NZD has since clawed back toward the 0.5800 psych level, but trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold to the mid-40s. The post-FOMC USD bid and the soft-oil drag on the Kiwi's rate-hike story frame the heavy tone.
Support: 0.5776, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5820, 0.5837
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5800 psych would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.57760 swing low reopens the 0.57522 session low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC and post-FOMC USD direction could shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 43 · price 0.57922
Range break lower, recovering.
The 0.5800-0.5860 range that capped the week gave way on the hawkish FOMC hold, with NZD/USD dumping through 0.5800 to a 0.5752 low as USD firmed on the higher dots and hot retail sales. Price has since clawed back toward 0.579, retesting the broken 0.5800 psych level from below with RSI recovering off oversold to mid-40s. The week's structure stays heavy under a sequence of lower highs.
Support: 0.5752, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5818, 0.5860
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 0.5800 psych level would neutralise the range break read
Failure to reclaim 0.5800 keeps the 0.5752 fomc low in focus
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC and post-FOMC USD direction could shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 44 · price 0.57922
Range break lower, retesting broken 0.5800.
Price held a 0.5800-0.5860 range since Monday until a hawkish FOMC and hot US retail sales drove a sharp break below 0.5800 in the Asia session, spiking down to 0.5752. The Kiwi has since clawed back toward the broken 0.5800 handle, with RSI(14) lifting off the post-drop low; price still sits below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.5860 zone capped two attempts earlier in the week and remains the broader cap.
Support: 0.5760, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5810, 0.5860
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5800 would reclaim the broken range floor
Failure to hold 0.5760 reopens the 0.5752 week low
NZ Trade Balance at 22:45 UTC could shift this read
NZD/USD held a tight 0.5820-0.5840 range since Monday before the hawkish FOMC presser drove a sharp NY-session break to 0.57522. Price has since recovered toward 0.5790, stalling around the 38.2% retracement of that drop but holding below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.5800 round number is the immediate ceiling capping the bounce.
Support: 0.5762, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5818
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5800 round number opens the path back to 0.58180 prior range
Failure to hold 0.57522 fomc low confirms a fresh lower low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, bouncing · RSI 44 · price 0.57895
Broke below week's range, recovering off swing low.
NZD/USD chopped sideways near 0.5820-0.5830 through midweek before a sharp leg down into the NY session, breaking the range floor as the hawkish FOMC repricing supported the USD. Price swept the 0.5752 swing low and has since recovered toward the 0.5800 psych level, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold. Both EMAs sit above price after the impulse lower.
Support: 0.57522, 0.57618
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5820
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.58000 psych reopens the 0.58200 range floor
Failure to hold the 0.57522 swing low extends the move lower
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 40 · price 0.57803
Range break lower, bouncing off week low.
NZD/USD held a 0.5820-0.5864 range for most of the week before a sharp leg lower into the NY session as the hawkish FOMC hold and a strong US retail sales beat fired the USD bid; price knifed from 0.5819 to a 0.5752 low. A modest recovery off that low has stalled near 0.5780 with RSI(14) lifting from oversold. Price sits well below both EMAs after the break.
Support: 0.57522, 0.57617
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5819, 0.5843
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5800 would ease the downside break read
Failure to hold 0.5752 exposes lower lows
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend after range breakdown · RSI 41 · price 0.57803
Broke below week's range, basing near 0.5780.
NZD/USD broke below the 0.5820–0.5840 range that had held since Monday after the hawkish FOMC hold and a strong US retail sales beat firmed the USD, sliding to a week low at 0.5752 before basing near 0.5780. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. The 0.5818 broken range now caps as resistance, while the 0.57857 session high marks the nearer ceiling.
Support: 0.57522, 0.5765
Resistance: 0.57857, 0.5818, 0.5840
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.5818 would negate the range breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.5752 week low opens further downside
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
NZD/USD held a tight 0.5800-0.5843 range for most of the week before the hawkish FOMC dot-plot repricing slammed it lower, with the NY session printing a 0.57522 low. The Q1 GDP beat earlier failed to sustain any premium against a firmer USD. Price has clawed back to 0.5778 but sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI mid-30s after the flush.
Support: 0.5760, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5815
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5800 would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.57522 confirms a fresh lower low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the USD tape
NZD/USD held a 0.5810-0.5864 range for most of the week before the hawkish FOMC dot-plot and a hot US retail print drove a USD bid, snapping the pair through 0.5800 and the 0.58178 breakdown shelf to a 0.57522 low. Price is now basing near 0.5778 with RSI(14) oversold and trying to stabilise after the impulse. The 0.5800 psych level, prior support, now sits overhead as the first reaction zone.
Support: 0.57618, 0.57522
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.58178
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5800 would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.57618 swing low exposes the 0.57522 week low
US jobless claims/Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or unwind the post-FOMC USD move