NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 18 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat after post-FOMC drop · RSI 52 · price 0.57251
Lower highs since Thursday, basing above the 0.5706 range floor.
The dominant move of the window came in a single bar: the Wednesday FOMC hike dropped NZD/USD roughly 50 pips off 0.5760 and price has not reclaimed the 0.57504 thu high since, which capped the GDP-driven rebound. Friday's sessions carved a week low at 0.57059, just above the 0.5700 round number, before a slow grind back to 0.5725, leaving price wedged between the ema20 at 0.5720 and the ema50 at 0.5728. RSI(14) has cycled back to 52 from the low 40s without price making progress — flat momentum inside a tight post-event consolidation.
Support: 0.57205, 0.57059, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57277, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.57407 friday high would break the lower-highs sequence off the thu high
Failure to hold the 0.57059 week low and the 0.5700 round number confirms a lower low and a range floor break
Loss of the ema20 with rejection at the ema50 would keep the consolidation skewed to the lower half
Monday's Westpac Consumer Survey (21:00 GMT) and the early-week Fedspeak run can reset this read in the first sessions of next week
19:06 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near the lows · RSI 48 · price 0.57233
Lower highs pressing into a flat floor after the post-FOMC drop.
The dominant move of the week was a single ~50-pip slide during Wednesday's NY session as the hawkish Fed hike and Warsh's inflation remarks re-rated the dollar; since then NZDUSD has consolidated in a 0.5703–0.5750 band. Lower highs at 0.57504 and the prior-day high 0.57407 have capped each rebound, with price sitting just above EMA(20) around 0.5717 and RSI(14) in the mid-40s. Friday's NY session produced a shallow bounce off the 0.57059 friday low into the 0.57255 session high as USD momentum stalled into the weekend.
Support: 0.57059, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57255, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.57407 prior-day high would break the sequence of lower highs that has defined the week
Failure to hold the 0.57059 friday low and the 0.5700 round number would expose the 0.57033 week low as the range floor gives way
Westpac Consumer Survey Mon 21:00 GMT and heavy Fedspeak from Monday could reset this post-FOMC consolidation
18:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening at the lows · RSI 42 · price 0.57229
Lower highs pressing into flat 0.5703/0.5706 lows.
The week's structure was set in Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish Fed hike to 4.00% knocked the pair 50 pips in a single hour from 0.5760 to the 0.57033 post-fomc low. Thursday's GDP-beat bounce stalled at the 0.5750 gdp cap and gave way to a sequence of lower highs — 0.57504, 0.57407, then 0.57334 — with Friday's London session grinding back to a 0.57059 friday low just above the 0.5700 round number. Late NY has lifted price marginally back over EMA(20) at 0.5720 while the EMA50 near 0.57276 continues to cap, and RSI(14) at 42 is holding above its Wednesday trough despite the near-equal lows.
Support: 0.57059, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57276, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
An hourly close below 0.57033 confirms a lower low and puts the 0.5700 round number in play
A close above the 0.57407 day high would break the lower-highs sequence from Thursday
Acceptance back above the EMA50 at 0.57276 is the first sign the Friday grind is stalling
Westpac Consumer Survey Mon 21:00 GMT and Fedspeak from Monday's session are the first drivers after the weekend gap risk
17:06 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing near the lows · RSI 38 · price 0.5719
Sequence of lower highs since Wednesday, base holding just above the week low.
The week's damage was done in one bar: the Wednesday evening Fed hike to 4.00% with a hawkish dot plot dropped NZDUSD from 0.5760 to 0.5712, and the GDP-beat bounce only reached 0.5750 (week cap) before rolling over. Since then price has tracked a descending channel of lower highs — 0.57407 day high, then 0.5730, then 0.57243 — with the London-NY session today pressing back to 0.57059, just 2-3 pips above the 0.57033 week low. EMA(20) has flattened at 0.5718 and price is pinned to it after the late-NY lift off the lows, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR at 7 pips, well below the post-Fed expansion.
Support: 0.57059, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57243, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
An hourly close above 0.57243 breaks the lower-high sequence that has held since Wednesday
Failure to hold 0.57033 confirms a lower low and puts the 0.5700 round number in play
Rejections repeatedly capping at the channel's lower-high line keep the downtrend structure intact
External risk dominates a thin NZ calendar — further Fed commentary shaping October hike odds could reset this range
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum grinding rather than impulsive · RSI 40 · price 0.57096
Lower highs since Thursday, price pinned at the 0.5703-0.5706 base.
NZDUSD leaked lower all week, with the decisive move coming in a single London-session bar that sliced from 0.5766 to 0.5703 as hawkish-Fed repricing after the hike to 4.00% drove the dollar to fresh highs. The Q2 GDP beat bought only a shallow rebound that stalled at the 0.57504 week cap, and price has since carved lower highs — rejected again from the 0.57334 prior high before the NY session dragged it back to 0.57096. Price sits under EMA(20) near 0.57155 with RSI(14) at 39 and hourly ranges compressed to an 8.6-pip ATR, so the drift down is grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.57059, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57155, 0.57334, 0.57504
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the ema20 at 0.57155 and then the 0.57334 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.57059 session low exposes the 0.57033 week low and the 0.5700 round number immediately below
Fedspeak into Monday and the NZ Westpac consumer survey are the next catalysts capable of shifting this read
Series of lower highs / lower lows since Thursday's bounce high.
The week's defining bar was Wednesday's ~50 pip vertical drop from 0.57668 to 0.57033 on the hawkish Fed hike, and the recovery into Thursday's NY session stalled at the 0.57504 bounce high before rolling over. Since then every attempt has been capped lower — 0.57334 prior high, then 0.57226 — with price pinned under the ema20 at roughly 0.5717 through the London session today after hawkish Warsh comments re-bid the dollar. The 0.5700 round number sits just beneath the 0.57059 week low and the 0.57033 post-fed low, and RSI(14) near 36 has been tracking sideways at a depressed level rather than making new lows with price.
Support: 0.57059, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5717, 0.57334, 0.57504
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 0.57334 prior high would break the lower-high sequence that has held since Thursday
Failure to hold the 0.57059 week low exposes the 0.5700 round number and the 0.57033 post-fed low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 0.5717 and holding it would neutralise the current downtrend read
Monday's Fed speaker slate and Tuesday's US flash PMIs are the next catalysts capable of shifting this structure
The dominant move of the week came in Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish Fed hike knocked the pair ~50 pips in a single H1 bar from 0.5760 into 0.5703, the week low. Thursday's NY bounce stalled at the thu high 0.5750 and the Friday Asia probe at the fri high 0.5741 was rejected, leaving price pinned under a falling ema20 near 0.5719 with RSI(14) cycling 35–50 and never reclaiming 60. Fifteen hours of 6–12 pip bars have compressed just above the round number at 0.5700, with the week low 0.5703 repeatedly retested rather than broken.
Support: 0.5703, 0.5700, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5719, 0.5741, 0.5750
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the week low at 0.5703 and the 0.5700 round number would extend the sequence of lower lows, with the july low near 0.5625 the next reference
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5719 and then the fri high 0.5741 would break the lower-high chain that has capped every bounce since Wednesday
NZ calendar is empty into the weekend; BoJ today and further Fed commentary are the external catalysts that could reshape this read inside the next few bars
The dominant move of the week came in one hour on Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish 25bp Fed hike knocked the pair from 0.5760 to 0.5712 and set the week low at 0.57033. Since then price has built a flat base around 0.5703/0.5710 under a sequence of lower highs — 0.57504, then 0.57407 — with the EMA(20) at roughly 0.5722 capping each attempt and RSI(14) stuck in the low-30s. Thursday's GDP beat produced only a shallow bounce that faded inside the London session, and Friday's European hours have pressed the base again at 0.57065.
Support: 0.57033, 0.5700, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5722, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.5700 round number on an H1 close would extend the downtrend and put the July low near 0.5625 in reference
An hourly close back above the 0.5722 ema20 and then the 0.57407 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Fed's Bowman are the only remaining US catalysts today and land immediately after this bar
Repeated defence of the 0.57033 week low without a bounce above 0.5722 keeps the read a compression into the lows rather than a base
The dominant move of the week was a single-hour 50-pip slide into Wednesday's NY-afternoon FOMC hike, which dropped the pair from 0.5762 to 0.5712 and set the week low at 0.57033. Thursday's London session produced the only meaningful bounce, capped at the 0.57504 rebound high, and price has printed lower highs ever since — 0.57334 was the last one rejected in the NY session. Trading below EMA20 near 0.57220 with RSI(14) near 33 and no bullish divergence yet as price presses the 0.57074 day low.
Support: 0.57074, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5722, 0.57334, 0.57504
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above EMA20 at 0.57220 would be the first break of this week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.57074 and 0.57033 puts the 0.57000 psych handle in play
Today's BoJ decision and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT are the near-term risks to this range read
A bounce that stalls under the 0.57334 lower high keeps the descending channel intact
Lower highs under a post-FOMC shelf, compressing range.
Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike took roughly 50 pips out of the pair in a single hour, breaking the 0.5750-0.5790 band that contained Monday and Tuesday's sessions. Since then price has compressed between the 0.57033 week low and the 0.57417 post-fomc hi, with Friday's London session printing lower highs and no close back above the H1 ema20 near 0.5724. RSI(14) around 43 has been capped below 55 on every bounce since the drop, with no divergence against the latest 0.57118 session low.
Support: 0.57118, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5724, 0.57417
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.57240 ema20 would be the first break of the lower-highs sequence since the FOMC drop
Reclaiming 0.57417 post-fomc hi would invalidate the compressing-lower read
Loss of the 0.57118 session low exposes the 0.57033 week low and the 0.5700 psych handle
US industrial production later today and BoJ-driven yen-cross flows can widen these hourly ranges
Lower highs since Wednesday's FOMC drop, pressing session low.
The week's dominant move was a single hour: Wednesday's FOMC hike bar dumped NZDUSD from 0.5761 to 0.5712 and the pair has not traded back above the 0.5750s since, with price now roughly 60 pips below Monday's 0.5772 open. Thursday's London/NY recovery stalled at the thu high of 0.57504, the Asia high this morning capped at 0.57407, and each bounce has been rejected beneath EMA20 near 0.5724 — a clean lower-high sequence with RSI(14) unable to clear 50. Price is now sitting on the session low at 0.57153 with ATR compressed near 9 pips, the soft August NZ trade balance having given the Kiwi nothing to work with.
Support: 0.57153, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5724, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.57153 puts the week low at 0.57033 and the 0.5700 round number back in play
An hourly close back above EMA20 at 0.5724 and then the asia high 0.57407 would break the lower-high sequence
Today's BoJ outcome and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT are the near-term risk events for this range
Failure to hold 0.57033 confirms continuation of the post-FOMC leg rather than consolidation
Series of lower highs capping a 0.5716-0.5750 range above the week low.
The week's dominant move was the single-bar slide from 0.5762 to 0.5703 during Wednesday's NY session on the Fed's hawkish hike, and price has done nothing more than consolidate above that low since. Attempts higher have been progressively weaker — 0.57504 on Thursday, 0.57407 in the Asia session today, 0.57334 into London — leaving price pinned under the H1 EMA(20) near 0.5727 with RSI(14) stalled around 41. The GDP beat that lifted the kiwi earlier in the week has been fully absorbed; supply is capping each bounce inside the flag.
Support: 0.57159, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5727, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.57504 prior-day high would invalidate the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.57159 session low re-opens the 0.57033 week low and the 0.5700 round number
Reclaiming and holding the ema20 at 0.5727 would neutralise the flag read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT and BoJ cross-flow into NZD/JPY could shift this read within the next few bars
Lower highs into a tight post-FOMC consolidation above 0.5704.
The week opened near 0.5771 and the dominant move came in a single bar at the Wednesday FOMC print, a 50-pip slide from 0.5767 to the 0.5704 week low. Thursday's GDP-beat bounce stalled at the 0.5750 thu high and price has since carved lower highs — 0.5750, then the 0.5741 friday high — while basing on the 0.5716 day low; RSI(14) is mid-40s and price has spent Friday under the ema20 near 0.5726. Range compression between the week low and a descending series of highs is the defining feature of the last 24 bars.
Support: 0.5716, 0.5704, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5726, 0.5741, 0.5750
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5741 friday high would break the lower-highs sequence off Thursday's high
Loss of the 0.5716 day low and 0.5704 week low would expose the 0.5700 psych handle
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5726 is the first condition for the consolidation to resolve higher
BoJ decision today is the live cross driver; US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT could reprice the dollar inside this range
Lower highs since Thursday's high, basing above the week low.
The week's dominant move was a single hourly candle in Wednesday's NY session, where NZD/USD dropped from 0.5766 to 0.5703 on the hawkish Fed hike and the lifted dot path; everything since has been a shallow, capped recovery. Thursday's high at 0.57504 marked the top of that bounce and price has printed successive lower highs into 0.57407 and 0.57334, with the last four hours pinned under the ema20 near 0.57265. RSI(14) is mid-40s and has not reclaimed 55 since the drop, while the NZ Q2 GDP beat produced no lasting lift on this timeframe.
Support: 0.57159, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57265, 0.57407, 0.57504
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the prior-day high at 0.57407 would invalidate the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the session low at 0.57159 puts the week low at 0.57033 and the 0.5700 psych handle back in play
BoJ decision today and Fed's Bowman speech are the immediate cross-driven risks to this range read
Reclaiming the ema20 and holding it on a pullback would be the first sign the six-session slide is stalling
Lower highs since the FOMC drop, compressing above the week low.
The dominant move of the week came in a single NY-session hour on Wednesday, when the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike knocked NZD/USD out of the 0.5755-0.5760 pre-fed base straight to the 0.5703 week low. Since then price has ground sideways in a tightening 0.5703-0.5750 band, with the Q2 GDP beat only good enough for a bounce that was capped at the 0.5750 bounce high before the rejection took price back under the ema20 near 0.5729. RSI(14) at 43 has not reclaimed 55 on any of this week's rallies, and the last two sessions have printed lower highs while holding a shallow series of higher lows off 0.5704.
Support: 0.5716, 0.5703, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5729, 0.5750, 0.5760
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5750 bounce high would end the lower-highs sequence built since Wednesday
Failure to hold the 0.5716 session low re-opens the 0.5703 week low and the 0.5700 psych handle
Reclaiming and holding the ema20 at 0.5729 is the first condition for neutralising the consolidation's downward tilt
BoJ decision today ahead of and into the London session is a live NZD-cross catalyst that could override this range read
Lower highs since Monday; two-day range holding above the week low.
The dominant move of the week came in the NY session on Wednesday, when the hawkish Fed hike knocked NZDUSD out of the 0.5755–0.5760 shelf in a single 55-pip bar down to the 0.57033 week low, well below the 0.57879 weekly open. Thursday's Q2 GDP beat only bought a shallow recovery that stalled at the 0.57504 prior day high, and price has since coiled in a 0.5716–0.5741 band with RSI(14) cycling 40–55 and price pinned on the H1 EMA(20) near 0.5730. The lower-highs sequence off Monday remains intact while the post-FOMC lows have been rising, compressing the range into the Asia–London handover.
Support: 0.57159, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.57407, 0.57504, 0.57879
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.57159 session low re-opens the 0.57033 week low and the 0.57000 psych area
A reclaim of the 0.57504 prior day high would break the lower-highs sequence off Monday's weekly open
BoJ decision pre-London is the nearest cross-driven risk to this range read
Fed's Bowman and US industrial production later today could re-price the USD leg
Lower highs since Monday; post-FOMC range 0.5703–0.5750.
NZD/USD ground lower through Monday and Tuesday before the hawkish FOMC hike knocked it roughly 50 pips in a single NY hour on Wednesday, down to the 0.57033 fomc low. The Q2 GDP beat produced only a shallow recovery: Thursday's London-NY bounce stalled at the 0.57504 thu high, and price has since chopped between the 0.57422 prior high and the 0.57159 session low, with the last two Asia bars reclaiming the ema20 near 0.5730. RSI(14) is back at the midline around 48 while price still sits under EMA(50), leaving the week's lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 0.57295, 0.57159, 0.57033
Resistance: 0.57422, 0.57504
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.57504 thu high breaks the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.57159 session low re-opens the 0.57033 fomc low
Loss of the ema20 near 0.57295 puts the pair back in the lower half of the post-FOMC range
Fed's Bowman remarks and US industrial production later today are the live USD catalysts for this range
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding sideways near the lows · RSI 36 · price 0.57185
Lower highs since Thursday's bounce, basing above the week low.
The dominant move of the week was a single vertical NY-session bar that dropped roughly 50 pips through 0.5750 and stretched to a 0.57033 week low, the hawkish Fed hike and firmer US yields doing the work. The Q2 GDP beat only produced a shallow recovery to 0.57504 on Thursday, and price has since traced lower highs back under a flattening EMA(20) near 0.5726, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and no bullish divergence at the recent session low of 0.57159. Ranges have compressed to about 7 pips per bar in the Asia session as the market bases above the week low.
Support: 0.57159, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5726, 0.57504, 0.5760
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above 0.5726 (ema20) and then 0.57504 (thu high) would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 0.57159 (session low) puts the 0.57033 week low and the 0.5700 psych level back in play
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production later today are the near-term catalysts for this range
Sustained trade back above 0.5760 (pre-drop) would negate the post-FOMC breakdown structure
Lower highs since Monday's open, basing above the week low.
The week's dominant move came in one NY-session bar on FOMC day, when a 50-pip drop through the 0.5750s took the pair to 0.5703 and confirmed a range break lower after two days of drifting supply below 0.5790. The Q2 GDP beat bought a shallow recovery into the 0.5742/0.5750 area during Thursday's London and NY hours, but that bounce high has capped and price has slipped back under the EMA(20) near 0.5730 in thin Asia trade. RSI(14) sits in the high 30s without a fresh divergence, consistent with consolidation rather than reversal.
Support: 0.57171, 0.57033, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5730, 0.57422, 0.57504
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 0.57422 (prior high) would break the lower-high sequence off Monday's open
Reclaiming and holding the ema20 near 0.5730 would neutralise the current downside drift
Failure to hold 0.57171 (day low) puts the 0.57033 week low and the 0.5700 round number back in play
US Industrial Production and Fed speakers later today are the main USD-side risk to this read
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening after the drop · RSI 39 · price 0.5722
Lower highs since the post-FOMC bounce, coiling above 0.5703.
The week opened near 0.5795 and ground lower session by session, then broke hard in the NY session on Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike — a single hour took price from 0.5762 to 0.5712 and the extension marked the fomc low at 0.5703. The GDP beat bought a bounce high at 0.5750 on Thursday, but that failed and price has since carved lower highs back under a flat EMA(20) around 0.5730, with RSI(14) near 39 and unable to reclaim 50. Asia hours are quiet, holding a tight 0.5717–0.5733 band just above the day low.
Support: 0.5717, 0.5703, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5730, 0.5750, 0.5762
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.5750 bounce high would break the lower-highs sequence off the fomc drop
Loss of the 0.5717 day low puts the 0.5703 fomc low and the 0.5700 psych handle back in play
Reclaiming the 0.5762 pre-fomc shelf would negate the post-FOMC downside structure
Westpac Consumer Survey Monday 21:00 GMT is the only NZ event queued; Fed October pricing remains the dominant driver of this range
Lower highs into consolidation above the week low.
NZD/USD has been offered since Monday's ~0.5799 open, grinding through 0.5750 before the hawkish FOMC hike knocked 50 pips off in a single bar during Wednesday's NY afternoon and printed the 0.57033 week low. The Q2 GDP beat funded only a shallow retracement: Thursday's NY session capped at the 0.57504 prior-day high, roughly the 61.8% of the FOMC drop, and price has since slipped back under EMA(20) near 0.5731 in thin Asia hours. RSI(14) around 39 sits in the lower half of its range without reclaiming 50, and the market is now pressing the 0.57174 asia low.
Support: 0.57174, 0.57033
Resistance: 0.5731, 0.57504
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.57504 prior-day high would break this week's sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.57174 asia low re-opens the 0.57033 week low
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) near 0.5731 would neutralise the lower-high structure
BoJ decision into the London open plus Fed speakers and US Industrial Production later Friday could reset this read