Double bottom 0.5668-0.5669, compressing on the 0.5683 neckline.
The soft Q3 CPI slide bottomed at 0.5669 in London and 0.5668 in NY, forming a double btm. A softer USD helped lift price through the 0.5683 neckline to a 0.5688 session high. The post-rollover dip held the 50-61.8% fib zone near 0.5676-0.5678, and price now sits on the neckline into early Asia with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR about 2.7 pips, both EMAs flat just underneath.
Support: 0.56815, 0.56761, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5681 late-ny low puts the fib zone at 0.5676-0.5678 back in play and weakens the double btm read
Break of the 0.5688 session high opens the path toward the 0.5699 swing high and the 0.5710 day high
Loss of 0.5668 negates the double btm and resumes the post-CPI decline
Thin early-Asia liquidity; Friday's US PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
23:31 UTC
Recovering off London low, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 0.56842
Double bottom at 0.5668/0.5669, range 0.5682–0.5688 into early Asia.
London pushed NZDUSD below the Asian range into a double bottom at 0.5669/0.5668. NY recovered to the 0.5688 ny high as the soft USD offset the post-CPI NZD drag. Early Asia is holding the 0.5682–0.5688 range after the thin rollover gap to 0.5671 was fully reclaimed. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56815, 0.56712, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 ny high breaks the range top and opens the 0.5700 psych level, with the 0.5710 day high beyond
Failure to hold the 0.5682 range low reopens the 0.5671 rollover low and the 0.5668 double bottom
No scheduled NZD/USD events in the next 8h; Fri 13:45 UTC US PMIs are the next catalyst for a range break
23:17 UTC
Recovering from intraday low, now flat · RSI 47 · price 0.56829
Double bottom at 0.5668-0.5669, tight consolidation below NY high.
NZD slid from the 0.5710 day high on the soft NZ CPI miss and set a double bottom at 0.5669/0.5668 across London and NY. A softer USD then lifted it back to the 0.5688 NY high. Early Asia is holding a 0.5682–0.5688 consolidation after a thin rollover dip to 0.5671. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5682, 0.56777, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Asia close below the 0.5682 range floor brings the 0.5678 fib 50% of the NY rally back into view
Failure at the 0.5678 fib 50% exposes the 0.5668 double btm; a break there invalidates the recovery read
Close above the 0.5688 NY high opens the 0.5699 London high, with the 0.5710 day high beyond
US S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5710 Asia high, now a tight 0.5681–0.5688 range.
The 0.5710 asia high was sold through London into a 0.5668 day low in early NY, extending the post-CPI softness, before NY rebounded to the 0.5688 ny high, near the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 0.5699 swing high. Two tests of that level were rejected and price has compressed between 0.5681 and 0.5688 into the new Asia session. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is about 3 pips; the 0.5671 rollover spike was a thin-liquidity print.
Support: 0.56813, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 ny high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 0.5699 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.5681 range low exposes the 0.5668 day low
A move back toward the 0.5710 asia high would retest the one-month cap
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; US PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next catalyst
Lower highs from 0.5710; NY rebound now ranging under the NY high.
The early Asia spike to the 0.5710 asian high faded as the soft NZ CPI hangover dragged the pair through London to a 0.5668 day low in NY. The rebound has stalled under the 0.5688 ny high, and early Asia is back at the 38.2% fib after the thin rollover low at 0.5671 was recovered.
Support: 0.56813, 0.56712, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5688 ny high exposes the 0.5700 psych level and 61.8% fib near 0.5694
Failure to hold 0.5681 late-ny low reopens the rollover low at 0.5671 and the 0.5668 day low
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 0.56825
Post-NY range 0.5681–0.5688 after a rebound from the 0.5668 day low.
Soft NZ CPI faded the pair from the 0.5710 Asia high and the one-month high, and London extended the slide to a 0.5668 day low. The NY rally to 0.5688 came as the USD rebound faded, and price has since held a 0.5681–0.5688 range. A thin-liquidity rollover spike to 0.5671 reversed straight back above the late NY low.
Support: 0.56813, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5688 NY high breaks the range and opens the 0.5699 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.5681 late NY low puts the NY rally fib 50–61.8% zone (0.5678–0.5675) and the 0.5668 day low back in play
US PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read once Asia and London are done
Lower highs from 0.5710; double bottom 0.5669/0.5668, rebound capped at 61.8%.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI left a lower-high chain from the 0.5710 Asia high through the 0.5699 lower high. London lost the Asian range low and early NY set a double bottom at 0.5669/0.5668. The rebound stalled at the 0.5688 swing high, right on the 61.8% fib of the 0.5699–0.5668 leg; the thin rollover dip to 0.5671 has since filled its gap, with price at 0.5683, RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56712, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 swing high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 0.5699 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.5671 rollover low exposes the 0.5668 double bottom; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Thin Asia session liquidity and no scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; US PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next USD catalyst
Lower highs from 0.5710; double bottom at 0.5668, late-NY floor lost at rollover.
The Asia peak at 0.5710 gave way to a London slide through the Asian range and a double bottom at 0.5669/0.5668 (day low) into the NY morning. The NY leg stalled at 0.5688 (ny high), and the late-NY floor near 0.5682 broke on a thin rollover dip. Price now sits near the 50% retrace of that leg, with RSI(14) around 39, as soft NZ CPI and a softer USD keep the tape two-way.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5688, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5682 ny floor marks the rollover dip as noise and returns focus to the 0.5688 ny high
Failure at the 0.5668 day low negates the double bottom; the 0.5650 half figure is the next reference
A push through 0.5688 brings the 0.5700 round number, the one-month cap area, back into view
Early Asia liquidity is thin; US PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
Double bottom at 0.5668-0.5669 capped by the 50% retrace; rollover gap lower.
NZDUSD pulled back from 0.5710 after the CPI miss and has since ranged between the 0.5668 day low and the 0.5688 NY high. The NY high sits at the 50% retrace of that pullback. Thin rollover pricing into the Asia open marked a 0.5671 rollover low and left price below the 0.5682 pre-gap close, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR at about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5671, 0.5668, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5688, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5668 day low voids the double bottom and confirms a lower low; the next marked support is the 0.5650 round number cited in the NZD digest
Reclaiming the 0.5682 pre-gap close fills the rollover gap; an M15 close above the 0.5688 NY high (50% retrace) exposes the 0.5699 swing high
Asia session liquidity is thin; the next scheduled catalyst is Friday's US PMIs at 13:45 UTC
21:16 UTC
Range after post-CPI fade, softening into rollover · RSI 44 · price 0.56776
0.5668–0.5688 range since London; gap down at daily rollover.
The post-CPI spike to the 0.5710 cpi high early in Asia faded through London, which broke the Asian low. Demand stepped in near the 0.5668 day low in both London and NY, and the rebound capped at the 0.5688 ny high. The daily rollover opened with a gap down to the 0.5671 gap low. Price sits at 0.5678, around 50% of the NY rebound fib, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.56712, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56818, 0.56876, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Recovery to 0.5682 gap fill (pre-rollover close) would neutralise the rollover gap
Failure to hold the 0.5671 gap low exposes the 0.5668 day low; a break there confirms a lower-low below the range
Close above the 0.5688 ny high reopens the path to the 0.5710 cpi high
Fri US PMIs (13:45 UTC) are the next scheduled USD catalyst and could shift this read
21:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, flat late range · RSI 42 · price 0.56818
Double bottom at ny low, late-session range 0.5681–0.5688.
The Q3 CPI miss capped NZD after the 0.5710 asian high, and London and NY ground lower into a double bottom at the 0.5668 ny low. The rebound stalled at 0.5688, and since then price has compressed into a 0.5681–0.5688 range. Price is now pressing the range low after the NY close, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.56813, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.57102
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5681 range low exposes the ny rebound fib 38.2–50% zone at 0.5680–0.5678, then the 0.5668 ny low
A close above the 0.5688 range high reopens the path toward 0.5700 and the 0.5710 asian high
Asia session open on thin liquidity; a range break there sets the next intraday leg
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Recovery off day low, stalling · RSI 45 · price 0.5683
Tight late-NY consolidation 0.5682-0.5688 after a higher-low rebound.
The NZ CPI miss capped the pair at the 0.5710 Asia high, and London sold it down to a 0.5668 day low that held twice. NY rebounded to the 0.5688 NY high, and price is now compressing in a 0.5682-0.5688 range at the 38.2% fib into the Asia handover. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR is a thin 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5699, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 NY high (50% fib) opens 0.5699 london high, then the 0.5710 asia high
Break of the 0.5682 range low and the rising NY trendline exposes the 0.5668 day low
Thin rollover-to-Asia liquidity keeps ranges compressed; US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 0.5668, now a tight late-NY range 0.5682–0.5688.
The post-CPI Asia spike to 0.5710 faded. London broke the Asian low near 0.5680, and NY built a double btm at 0.5668 before a soft USD helped price reclaim the 0.5683 neckline toward the ny high at 0.5688. Late NY is compressing between the range low at 0.5682 and 0.5688, with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR around 2.4 pips. No break in play.
Support: 0.56815, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ny high at 0.5688 extends the double btm recovery toward the 0.5699 swing high
Loss of the 0.5682 range low puts price back below the Asian low and opens the 50% of the ny rally fib near 0.5678
Break of 0.5668 negates the double btm read
Fri 13:45 UTC US flash PMIs are the next USD catalyst. The RBNZ decision on Oct 28 is the larger NZD risk
20:16 UTC
Recovery off day low, stalling late NY · RSI 45 · price 0.56821
Double base 0.5668-0.5669, rebound capped at 0.5688, tight post-NY range.
The NZ Q3 CPI miss started a slide from the 0.5710 asian high. London broke the 0.5680 asian low and a double base formed at the 0.5668 day low into NY. The rebound stalled at the 0.5688 ny high, and price has since drifted in a 4-pip band after NY close, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR at about 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5680 asian low (38.2% fib of the NY rally) exposes the 0.5668 day low
Close above the 0.5688 ny high reopens the 0.5700-0.5710 asian high zone
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
Lower highs from 0.5710; double bottom at 0.5668-0.5669, now tight range above asian low.
NZD has slid from the 0.5710 Asia high as the Q3 CPI miss weighed. London broke the asian low at 0.5680, and the London and NY lows at 0.5669/0.5668 formed a double bottom. The NY rebound stalled at the 0.5688 ny high, near the 61.8% retrace, and price is now compressing in a 0.5683–0.5687 range after London close with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.5683, 0.56805, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 ny high opens the 0.5699 swing high
Break of the 0.5683 range low and the 0.5680 asian low puts the 0.5668 ny low back in play
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; Friday's US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations from 13:45 UTC are the next event risk
Double bottom off 0.5668, tight 0.5683–0.5688 box below NY high.
The Q3 CPI miss capped NZD near 0.5710 in Asia, and London broke the asian low at 0.5680. NY carved a double bottom at 0.5669/0.5668 and rallied to the ny high at 0.5688, but price has since compressed in a 5-pip box (box low 0.5683) during late NY hours, RSI(14) flat near 63.
Support: 0.5683, 0.56805, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 ny high breaks the box and puts the 0.5700 round number in view
Loss of the 0.5683 box low exposes the asian low at 0.5680, the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib
A break back under 0.5668, the day low, negates the double bottom read
US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
19:16 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling under NY high · RSI 63 · price 0.56847
HH/HL chain off 0.5668 day low, now a tight post-NY-close consolidation.
The CPI miss capped the Asian session at 0.5710. London broke the 0.5681 Asian low, and the slide ran to a 0.5668 day low in NY before a soft USD fuelled a HH/HL NY rally back into the Asian range. Price is now coiling between the 0.5683 late low and the 0.5688 NY high after the NY close, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56829, 0.56805, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56962, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5688 NY high reopens the 0.5696 london pivot and the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5683 late low breaks the NY rising line and puts the 0.5681 Asian low back in focus
A break of the 0.5668 day low invalidates the NY rally and resumes the post-CPI leg lower
Calendar is quiet until Friday's US PMIs/UoM at 13:45 UTC, so thin Asia session conditions may keep the range tight
Double bottom at 0.5668/0.5669, price back inside the Asian range.
Asia's spike to the 0.5710 asian high faded after the CPI miss, and London broke the 0.5681 asian low into a double bottom at 0.5669/0.5668. A steady NY rebound, cushioned by the softer USD, has lifted price back inside the Asian range. It is now compressing just under the 0.5688 session high in late NY, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56717, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 session high reopens the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5710 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5681 asian low (38.2% of the NY rebound fib) puts the 0.5672 higher low and the 0.5668 double bottom back in focus
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalyst
Higher lows off 0.5668, back inside Asian range below 0.5688.
The NZ CPI miss capped the Asia rally at 0.5710. London broke the asian low at 0.5681, and NY carved a double bottom at 0.5668-0.5669, the session low, which a soft USD helped lift into a steady grind to the 0.5688 ny high. Late in the NY session price is stalling just above the 0.5683 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) about 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.5683, 0.5681, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 ny high opens the path to the 0.5700 round number
Close back below 0.5681 (asian low, near the 38.2% of the NY recovery fib) puts price back under the Asian range
Loss of the 0.5668 session low invalidates the double bottom and confirms a lower low
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
18:04 UTC
Recovery off session low, grinding higher in late NY · RSI 74 · price 0.56865
Higher lows from 0.5668 double bottom; price pressing 50% retrace.
The soft NZ CPI print capped the Asian spike at the 0.5710 asian high, and London extended the drop to a double btm at 0.5668–69. NY has since built steady higher lows with RSI(14) near 74 and is now testing the 0.5688 session high, which sits at the 50% retrace of the 0.5710 decline.
Support: 0.5681, 0.5672, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5699, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5688 session high and 50% retrace opens the 0.5699 london high
Loss of the 0.5672 higher low breaks the NY trendline and exposes the 0.5668 double btm
Slip back under the 0.5681 pullback low would stall the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5710; NY higher low at 0.5672 and reclaim of the Asian low.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI miss capped the post-release bounce at the 0.5710 cpi high in early Asia. London broke the 0.5681 asian low, and NY printed a 0.5668 day low before recovering above it, with the move turning that break into a false break. Price is late in the NY session, after London close, testing the 0.5688 ny high near the 50% fib of the 0.5710–0.5668 drop, RSI(14) around 72.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56717, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56962, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 ny high and 50% fib exposes the 0.5696 london high
Failure back below the 0.5681 asian low revives the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5668 day low
Break of the 0.5672 higher low voids the NY recovery trendline
US flash PMIs and UoM Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY recovery stalling at 38.2% · RSI 68 · price 0.56851
Double bottom at 0.5668, higher-low chain through NY.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI print capped the Asia high at 0.5710. London then broke the asian low at 0.5680 and extended to 0.5668 as the USD rebounded. NY formed a double bottom at 0.5668–0.5669 and cleared the 0.5683 neckline, and price is now pausing under the NY high at 0.5688 at the 38.2% retracement, RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 0.56829, 0.56805, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56876, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5683 neckline and the asian low at 0.5680 negates the double bottom.
A close above the NY high at 0.5688 and the 50% fib at 0.5689 opens the London high at 0.5699.
A break of the rising trendline off the 0.5668 session low returns focus to the day's lows.
Oil and Middle East headlines are driving USD into Fri flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and could shift this read.
Asia high at 0.5710 is the ceiling of the CPI-driven slide.
Higher-low chain off 0.5668 day low, neckline reclaimed.
The post-CPI slide from 0.5710 found a floor at the 0.5668 day low after the US claims beat. That low and the 0.5669 London low form a double bottom, and a steady higher-low chain through NY hours has reclaimed the 0.5683 neckline and the Asian range low. Price is pressing the 38.2% retrace, with the fib 50% at 0.5689 next overhead.
Support: 0.5683, 0.5672, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5698
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5683 neckline negates the double bottom read
A break of the 0.5672 higher low ends the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5668 day low
Acceptance above the fib 50% at 0.5689 opens the 0.5698 london high
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY recovery in progress · RSI 67 · price 0.56846
Higher-low chain off the 0.5668 day low, back above the Asian low.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.5681 as NZD stayed heavy after the Q3 CPI miss. NY then printed a 0.5668 day low just under the 0.5669 London low and built a higher-low chain off it. After London close, price cleared the 0.5683 midday high and is sitting at the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5710–0.5668 drop, RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 0.56829, 0.56805, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5681 asian low puts the 0.5668 day low back in play
M15 close above 0.5690 (50% fib) opens the 0.5699 london high, with the 0.5710 asia high above
A break of the rising trendline from the day low ends the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding late NY · RSI 59 · price 0.56824
Double bottom at 0.5668–0.5669, higher lows since 14:15 UTC.
The post-CPI-miss slide and a firmer USD broke the 0.5680 Asia low during London, with a double bottom then forming at 0.5669/0.5668 by the NY session low. A rising trendline of higher lows has lifted price back to retest 0.5680 and tag the 0.5684 NY high at the 50% retracement of the London leg. RSI(14) is near 59 and price is sitting on EMA50 after London close.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56742, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56841, 0.56873, 0.56994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5684 NY high and the 61.8% fib at 0.5687 extends the double bottom rebound toward the 0.5699 London high
Close back below the 0.5680 Asia low and the rising trendline puts the 0.5674 NY pivot and the 0.5668 session low back in play
US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in NY · RSI 63 · price 0.5683
Double bottom at 0.5668-69, higher low at 0.5672, testing swing high.
The CPI miss started a slide from the 0.5710 Asia high that broke the 0.5681 Asian low in London. In NY hours the 0.5669 low was swept to a 0.5668 session low, forming a double bottom, and a higher low at 0.5672 has lifted price back over the Asian low. Price is now pressing the 0.5684 swing high, which coincides with the 38.2% Asia high retrace, with RSI(14) at 63 and not stretched.
Support: 0.5681, 0.5672, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5684 swing high completes the double bottom and opens the 0.5700 round number
Slip back below the 0.5681 asian low puts the reclaim in doubt
Break of the 0.5672 higher low returns focus to the 0.5668 session low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil and Middle East headlines remain the USD-side driver
Lower highs from the 0.5710 Asia high; possible double bottom at 0.5668/0.5669.
The Q3 CPI miss knocked NZD off its 0.5710 Asia high. London broke the 0.5680 Asian low and printed a day low at 0.5668, matching the 0.5669 low from earlier in London. The NY rebound has carried price back to the 0.5680–0.5683 band, where the Asian low and the 11:30 UTC swing high meet, with RSI(14) at 61 and the 38.2% retracement of the day's drop sitting just above.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56829, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5683 swing high confirms the double bottom and opens the 0.5699 prior high
Rejection at 0.5683 and a slip back below the 0.5680 Asian low keeps the downtrend intact toward the 0.5668 day low
Break below the 0.5668 day low invalidates the double-bottom read
US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations (Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5710; broken Asian low under retest from below.
After the Q3 CPI miss, NZDUSD slid from the 0.5710 Asian high, broke the 0.5680 Asian low in London and printed a 0.5668 session low after the claims-driven USD bounce faded. Late in the NY session, a higher-low chain off 0.5668 has carried price back into the broken Asian low, with RSI(14) near 57. The 0.5683 lower high sits just above, and the 0.5699 London high caps the move.
Support: 0.56748, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56829, 0.56994
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5680 Asian low keeps the downtrend sequence intact; an M15 close above the 0.5683 lower high breaks it and puts the 0.5699 London high and the 38.2% fib in view
A break of the higher-low line through 0.5675 exposes the 0.5668 session low
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing in NY session · RSI 46 · price 0.5675
Lower highs from Asian high, sideways near session low.
NZD faded from the 0.5710 Asian high after the Q3 CPI miss. London broke the 0.5680 Asian low, and the claims-led USD bounce pushed price to a 0.5668 session low early in the NY session. Price is now holding a 0.5671 higher low and sitting near the 23.6% of the session decline fib, capped below the 0.5683 swing high. RSI is neutral and ATR is near 4 pips.
Support: 0.5671, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.5683, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5680 Asian low and 0.5683 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and targets the 38.2–50% session decline fib
Failure to hold the 0.5668 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5671 higher low returns price to the session low
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next USD catalyst; RBNZ Oct 28 remains the larger NZD risk
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, NY basing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.56725
Lower highs from Asia; NY range 0.5668–0.5677 under the broken Asian low.
The NZ CPI miss and the USD claims beat drove a slide from the 0.5710 Asia high. London broke the Asian low near 0.5680 and set lows at 0.5669, which NY marginally extended to the 0.5668 session low. The NY bounce stalled at 0.5677, another lower high, with price back under EMA20, RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.56678, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56769, 0.56829
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5668 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5650 psych level
A close above the 0.5677 NY high, then the 0.5683 swing high (near the 38.2% fib of the day decline), breaks the lower-high sequence
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; the Asia open against the 0.5668 session low is the next structural test
Lower highs from the Asian high; Asian low broken, twin session lows near 0.5668.
The NZ CPI miss turned the pair lower from the 0.5710 Asian high. Lower highs followed, London broke the 0.5680 Asian low and NY set a session low at 0.5668. Twin lows at 0.5668–0.5669 are holding and price is pressing the lower-highs line, though ema20 near 0.5676 still caps and RSI(14) sits around 42.
Support: 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56758, 0.56805, 0.56829
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5683 swing high (near the 50% fib of the London leg) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5680 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.5668 session low extends the lower-low chain
US PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and the Oct 28 RBNZ decision could materially shift this read
NZD/USD has stair-stepped lower from the 0.5710 Asian high as the Q3 CPI miss weighed and USD pared losses after the 194K claims print. Since the London-NY transition, price has held a tight 0.5668–0.5683 band with a lower high at 0.5679. The session low was probed at 0.5668 early in NY, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 45.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5683, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5683 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.5668 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5650 round number
Descending trendline off the 0.5683 bounce high and 0.5679 lower high caps near 0.5674
0.5710 asian high marks the top of the 0.5710–0.5668 decline; 38.2% retrace sits near 0.5684
US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; fresh NY session low, shallow bounce.
The NZD Q3 CPI miss and a steadier USD after the claims beat have pushed NZDUSD down from the 0.5710 Asian high, with a lower-high sequence that runs from the 0.56994 London high. The NY open high at 0.56829 capped the bounce. A minor lower high at 0.56791 followed, and price then slipped under the 0.56692 London low to a 0.56678 session low. RSI(14) sits near 43, and ATR is about 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.56678, 0.56692
Resistance: 0.56791, 0.56829, 0.56994
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.56678 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5650 area flagged in the digest
M15 close above the 0.56791 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the intraday down structure; the 0.56829 ny open high is next
Recovery into the 38.2–50% fib zone (0.5684–0.5689) would show the CPI-driven leg losing traction
No scheduled events in the next 8h; US PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia spike; Asian range broken to the downside.
The Q3 CPI miss capped the Asia spike at 0.5710, and London broke the Asian low at 0.5681. NY has extended to a fresh session low at 0.5668 under a descending line of lower highs from the 0.5683 bounce high, with the 194K claims beat adding USD support. RSI(14) sits near 35, heavy but not oversold.
Support: 0.56678, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56791, 0.56805, 0.56829
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5679 lower high and the 0.5681 Asian low breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the sequence.
Failure to hold the 0.5668 session low exposes the 0.5650 psych area flagged in the post-CPI read.
A recovery above the 0.5683 bounce high brings the 38.2% of the Asia high-to-low fib at 0.5684 into play.
LH/LL chain from 0.5710 Asian high, fresh session low in early NY.
Steady lower-high/lower-low sequence since the 0.5710 Asian high. The post-CPI-miss NZD offer and a claims-led USD bounce pressed price to a fresh session low at 0.5669 in the first hours of NY. RSI(14) is near 37, not oversold, and the descending trendline through the 0.5683 swing high and 0.5679 lower high still caps rallies.
Support: 0.56688, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56791, 0.56829, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5650 psych area
Recovery above the 0.5679 lower high breaks the descending trendline; 0.5683 swing high next
0.5700 round number marks the London breakdown level; reclaiming it negates the intraday downtrend read
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into NY · RSI 37 · price 0.56708
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain pressing session low.
The Q3 CPI miss reversed NZD from the 0.5710 one-month high early in Asia. London broke the Asian low at 0.5681 and printed a session low at 0.5669. The first-hour-of-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5683 bounce high, and successive lower highs at 0.5679 and 0.5676 now have price pressing the session low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.56692, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56791, 0.56829
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 session low confirms a fresh lower low and opens the 0.5650 round number flagged in the digest
Close above the 0.5679 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the NY lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 0.5683 bounce high puts price back inside the Asian range above 0.5681, a 45% retrace of the London drop
US S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
The NZ CPI miss knocked the pair off the 0.5710 early-Asia high. London then broke the 0.56805 Asian low and made a session low at 0.56692, and the first-hour NY bounce was rejected at the 0.56829 bounce high, near the 50% of the London drop fib. Lower highs since are pressing price into the 0.56722 NY low, with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR near 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.56722, 0.56692
Resistance: 0.56791, 0.56805, 0.56829
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56692 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close back above the 0.56805 asian low and the 0.56829 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence
A break of the 0.56791 lower high would end the current compression into the ny low
US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
Lower highs from 0.5710; NY compressing 0.5672–0.5683.
The post-CPI-miss slide from 0.5710 broke the Asian low at 0.5680 during London and printed a london low at 0.5669. The early NY rebound stalled at the 0.5683 ny high, back above the broken Asian low. Price is now compressing between the 0.5672 ny low and the descending highs line. Jobless claims barely moved the pair; RSI near 41 and ATR around 4 pips point to fading momentum.
Support: 0.56725, 0.56692
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56829, 0.56915
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low (0.5680) and the 0.5683 ny high breaks the descending highs line and opens the London lower high at 0.5692
Loss of the 0.5672 ny low exposes the 0.5669 london low; a close below it extends the lower-low chain
50% retracement of the Asia-London drop sits near 0.5690, close to the lower high
Fri S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations (13:45/14:00 UTC) are the next USD-side catalyst
13:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in early NY · RSI 40 · price 0.56762
Asian range low broken in London; lower high 0.5683, higher low 0.5672.
Post-CPI NZD pressure from the 0.5710 high carried through London, which broke the 0.5680 Asian low and printed a 0.5669 session low. The bounce stalled at a 0.5683 lower high, about a third of the drop on the fib. Early NY is now coiling between the 0.5672 higher low and the London trendline near 0.5679, with little reaction to the 194K claims beat.
Support: 0.56725, 0.56692
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56829, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5683 lower high breaks the London trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5680 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range, with 0.5700 psych above
Failure to hold the 0.5672 higher low exposes the 0.5669 session low
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce fading · RSI 33 · price 0.56745
Asian range low broken, lower highs under trendline.
The NZ CPI miss started a decline from the 0.57102 Asian high. London then broke the Asian low at 0.56805 and printed a session low at 0.56692. The NY-open bounce produced a rejection at 0.56829, just above the broken Asian low and short of the fib 38.2. Lower highs remain intact under the trendline, with RSI(14) near 33; the mixed jobless claims barely moved the pair.
Support: 0.56725, 0.56692
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56829, 0.56849
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.56805 asian low and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
Break of the 0.56692 session low extends the lower-low sequence; holding the 0.56725 ny low keeps a 0.56692–0.56829 base in play
Close above the 0.56849 fib 38.2 would mark a deeper retracement of the decline
No scheduled NZ/US data in the next 8h; USD yield moves and oil headlines are the swing factors
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, early NY pause · RSI 36 · price 0.56753
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5710 Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
The NZ CPI miss turned the pair from the 0.5710 Asian high, and London broke the Asian low at 0.5680 to a session low of 0.5669. The rebound was capped at the 0.5683 bounce high, just above the broken Asian low and on the lower-highs line. Early NY is holding a micro low near 0.5674, with little reaction to jobless claims so far.
Support: 0.56742, 0.56692
Resistance: 0.56829, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5683 bounce high and the lower-highs line breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5674 micro low puts the 0.5669 session low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
0.5700 round number caps any deeper retracement of the CPI leg
Fri US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5710 Asia high; London broke the Asian low.
NZD has made lower highs since the post-CPI spike to the 0.5710 cpi high in Asia, as the Q3 CPI miss and a firmer USD weighed. London broke the 0.5680 Asian low to a 0.5669 session low. The bounce into the NY open hit rejection at the 0.5683 bounce high, below the 38.2% retrace, and RSI(14) sits near 36.
Support: 0.56692, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56829, 0.56962, 0.57102
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC fall in the current bar and could materially shift this read
A close above the 0.5683 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the 0.5696 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.5669 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5650 psych area
Lower highs through London; Asian low broken, retest from below.
London cut through the asian low at 0.5681 and extended to a 0.5669 session low as NZD stayed heavy after the Q3 CPI miss. The bounce off the low is now retesting 0.5681 from below at the London-NY transition, with the 38.2% fib of the London leg there and ema20 at 0.5683 capping the last bar.
Support: 0.56692
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56829, 0.56845
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands inside the next bar and could materially shift this read
Rejection at the asian low / ema20 and a break of the 0.5669 session low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.5685 london pivot breaks the London lower-high sequence
Lower highs since 0.5699; Asian range low broken, now retested from below.
After the soft NZ CPI print and a failed Asia push to 0.5710, London broke the Asian low at 0.5680 and extended to a session low of 0.5669 as USD firmed. The bounce into the London-NY transition is retesting 0.5680 from below, at the 38.2% fib of the 0.5699–0.5669 London leg. The lower-highs trendline from 0.5699 sits just above.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.5685, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5685 london pivot and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Rejection at the 0.5680 asian low keeps the 0.5669 session low in play; a break there exposes 0.5650 psych
Below the 0.5700 round number the post-CPI lower-high sequence stays intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending lower into late London · RSI 31 · price 0.56719
Lower highs since 06:45 UTC; Asian low broken, fresh session low at 0.5669.
The 0.1pp NZ CPI miss turned the Asian spike to 0.5710 into a slide. London has printed lower highs and broke the 0.5680 asian low around 10:45 UTC, extending to a session low at 0.5669 with RSI(14) near 31. A firmer USD is adding to the pressure.
Support: 0.56692, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56906
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5680 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5669 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5650 round number
Reclaiming the 0.5691 lower high, near the 50% fib of the Asia-high leg, would end the lower-highs sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY open
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into London · RSI 24 · price 0.56696
Lower highs from 0.5710, Asian low broken.
London extended the fade from the 0.5710 Asian high after the soft NZ Q3 CPI miss. The pair broke the 0.5680 Asian low and printed a session low at 0.5670, with lower highs capping each bounce. RSI(14) near 24 is oversold, and ATR(14) is only about 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.56695, 0.5665
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56915, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.5680 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 0.5691 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; 0.5700 psych sits above that
Failure to hold the 0.5670 session low opens the 0.5665 rally base area where this week's advance began
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, around the NY open, could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 29 · price 0.56763
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Asian range low broken in London.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI miss (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) capped NZD after the 0.5710 high early in the Asia session. London has extended the fade along a lower-high trendline, with the 0.5699 and 0.5692 lower highs giving way to a break of the 0.5681 Asian low. Price sits at a fresh session low near 0.5676, RSI(14) around 29 but not yet stretched.
Support: 0.56761, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56915, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5681 Asian low would mark a false break of the Asian range
A move above the 0.5692 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the LH/LL chain
Acceptance below the 0.5675 round number extends the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K), in the first hour of NY, could materially shift this read
A rebound toward 0.5700 psych would put the full Asia-session drop back in question
10:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.56799
LH/LL chain below descending trendline; Asian low just broken.
The soft Q3 CPI print knocked NZD back under 0.5700. After an Asia spike to 0.57102, mid-London price has printed a chain of lower highs below the descending trendline. It is now slipping just under the 0.56805 Asian low to a 0.56791 window low, with RSI(14) near 31, soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.56791, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56915, 0.56994
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.56791 window low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5675 round number
M15 close back above the 0.56805 Asian low marks the range break as a false break
M15 close above the 0.56915 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Descending trendline break plus a reclaim of the 0.56994 London high invalidates the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, early NY session, could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 35 · price 0.56828
Lower highs since 0.56994, retesting Asian low.
The post-CPI spike to 0.5710 faded through Asia after NZ Q3 CPI missed at 3.7%. The recovery stalled at the 0.56994 swing high, at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian sell-off. London has carved lower highs from the 0.56962 London high through the 0.56906 lower high, and price is now pressing the 0.56805 Asian low with RSI(14) near 35, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56906, 0.56962, 0.56994
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56805 Asian low confirms a fresh session lower-low
Recovery above the 0.56906 lower high breaks the London lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 0.56994 swing high (61.8% of the Asian sell-off) negates the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
London lower highs pressing a flat 0.5684 base above the Asian low.
The post-CPI Asian spike to the 0.5710 Asian high reversed to an Asian low at 0.5680, and the rebound met rejection at the fib 61.8 near 0.5699 just before London. Since the London open price has printed lower highs, the latest a 0.5692 swing high, while lows hold flat at the 0.5684 London low, keeping price below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.56842, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56915, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5684 london low exposes the 0.5680 asian low; failure there confirms a lower-low
Close above the 0.5692 swing high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the compression read
Rejection or break at the fib 61.8 near 0.5699 decides whether the Asian-high retracement extends
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Sideways-to-lower, lower highs since Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.56899
London trading inside the Asian range, lower highs and lower lows.
After the soft NZ Q3 CPI miss, Asia spiked to an asian high at 0.5710, then reversed to an asian low at 0.5681. Mid-London, price sits near 0.5690 inside that range. Supply has capped a falling sequence from the swing high at 0.5699 to a lower high at 0.5696, and the london low is 0.5685. RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56962, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5685 london low exposes the 0.5681 asian low
M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 0.5699 swing high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open inside the Asian range; 0.5685 London low holding.
The soft Q3 CPI miss knocked NZD back under 0.5700. Asia then faded from the 0.5710 Asia high to the 0.5681 Asia low. London has stalled at the 61.8% of the asia high-low fib near 0.5699 and printed london lower highs into 0.5696, while the 0.5685 London low has held twice; RSI(14) near 46 sits under the 0.5700 psych level.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56962, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5685 London low exposes the 0.5681 Asia low; a break there sets a fresh session lower-low
M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high and 0.5700 psych breaks the london lower highs sequence and reopens the 0.5710 Asia high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.56859
Lower highs from 0.5710; lows holding above 0.5681 Asian low.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI miss knocked the pair under 0.5700. An Asia spike to the 0.5710 Asian high fully faded to a 0.5681 Asian low. The London high at 0.5699 was a rejection at the 61.8% fib of that drop, and the 0.5696 lower high followed, leaving price pressing the 0.5685 London low mid-session.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56962, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5685 london low exposes the 0.5681 asian low
Close above the 0.5696 lower high and the 0.5699 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Intraday down from Asia high, now compressing · RSI 54 · price 0.5692
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the Asian range.
The early-Asia push to the 0.5710 Asian high was unwound after the soft Q3 CPI miss, with the slide stalling at the 0.5681 Asian low. Mid-London, price is coiling between the 0.5687 London low and the 0.5699 London high, which capped right at the 61.8% of the cpi drop fib. Lower highs and higher lows are narrowing the range.
Support: 0.56867, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5699 London high and the lower highs line puts 0.5700 back in play and exposes the 0.5710 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5687 London low breaks the higher lows line and reopens the 0.5681 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, early NY session, could break the current coil
Lower highs off 0.5710; ranging 0.5686–0.5699 above Asian low.
The post-CPI pop to the 0.5710 Asian high fully unwound to 0.5681 during Asia as the CPI miss weighed on NZD. London opened with a rejection at 0.5699, which is both the London high and the 61.8% fib of that drop, and price is now drifting back toward the 0.5686 range floor below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 0.5686, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.5699, 0.57102
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5686 range floor exposes the 0.5681 asian low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 0.5699 london high and 61.8% fib breaks the descending highs off 0.5710
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
08:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asia high, now compressing · RSI 52 · price 0.56913
Lower high at 0.5699 under the 0.5710 Asia high, holding a higher low at 0.5686.
The NZ CPI miss sent the pair down to 0.5685. An early-Asia push through yesterday's 0.5704 prior high to a 0.5710 Asia high then failed, and the slide ran to a 0.5681 Asia low. The rebound stalled at the fib 61.8% near 0.5699, printing a lower high. London is one hour in and price sits at 0.5691, just under a flat EMA20, with the london low at 0.5690 holding so far.
Support: 0.56898, 0.56857, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5690 london low exposes the 0.5686 higher low and the 0.5681 asia low
Close above the 0.5699 fib 61.8% lower high reopens the 0.5704 prior high and 0.5710 asia high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the compression either way
07:47 UTC
Intraday down from Asian high, rebound stalling · RSI 52 · price 0.56912
Higher lows off 0.5681 Asian low, lower high under 0.5700.
The soft NZ CPI print knocked the pair off its 0.5710 Asian high down to a 0.5681 Asian low. The rebound met rejection at the 61.8% fib just under 0.5700 into London open, and price is back at 0.5691 testing the higher low at 0.5689, with the swing low at 0.5686 beneath and yesterday's NY high at 0.5704 above.
Support: 0.56892, 0.56857, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5686 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5681 Asian low
M15 close back above the 61.8% fib at 0.5699 and 0.5700 reopens yesterday's NY high at 0.5704 and the 0.5710 Asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Asian low, inside the 0.5681–0.5710 Asian range.
The post-CPI spike to the 0.5710 Asian high faded through the Asian session to a 0.5681 Asian low as the 3.7% print trimmed RBNZ hike odds. Early London has built higher lows along a rising trendline but met rejection at the 0.5699 London high, the 61.8% retrace of the Asian sell-off, just shy of the 0.5700 handle.
Support: 0.56892, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5700 clears the London high and opens a retest of the 0.5710 Asian high
Break of the 0.5689 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 0.5681 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could reset the intraday range
07:17 UTC
Recovering off Asian low, higher lows intact · RSI 54 · price 0.56953
HH/HL chain off 0.56805, capped below 0.5700.
Early London trades mid-Asian range after the soft NZ CPI miss knocked the pair off its 0.57102 Asian high to a 0.56805 Asian low. Higher lows since then have lifted price into the 50–61.8% retracement of the Asian drop, with a rejection just under the 0.5700 round number.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5700 round number clears the 61.8% fib and opens a retest of the 0.57102 Asian high
Break of the 0.5689 swing low takes out the higher-low trendline and reopens the 0.56805 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
07:03 UTC
Intraday rebound inside Asian range · RSI 61 · price 0.56969
Higher lows off 0.5681, capped under 0.5700.
The NZ CPI miss (3.7% vs 3.8%) knocked price to 0.5685 on release. Asia then rallied to a 0.5710 Asian high before a rejection dragged it to the 0.5681 Asian low. A chain of higher lows since puts price at the 61.8% retrace, just under the 0.5700 round number, into London open.
Support: 0.56892, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5700 round number opens a retest of the 0.5710 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5689 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 0.5681 Asian low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Two-way intraday, mild recovery off the Asian low · RSI 48 · price 0.56918
Higher lows from 0.5681, mid-Asian-range below the 50% fib.
After the soft NZ CPI print, early Asia pushed through the prior-day high near 0.5704 to an Asian high of 0.5710. That break failed and price unwound to the Asian low at 0.5681. Into the London open, the pair is building higher lows (0.5686 higher low) and sits on the 38.2% fib, with the 50% fib at 0.5695 capping the last push; the 0.5700 round number is the next level above.
Support: 0.56857, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56953, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 0.5695 opens a retest of the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5686 higher low exposes the 0.5681 Asian low and voids the higher-low trendline
Recovery through 0.5710 Asian high would negate the false break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Down from Asia high, basing · RSI 47 · price 0.56904
Higher lows off 0.5681, capped below 0.5693.
The soft NZ CPI print dipped price to 0.5685. Asia then ran to a 0.5710 high, which was rejected, and the pair slid to an Asia low of 0.5681. Late Asia shows a higher-low chain off 0.5681, with the bounce stalling at the 38.2% fib near 0.5693 just under EMA20 ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.56857, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56925, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5693 opens a retest of the 0.5700 round number, with the asia high at 0.5710 beyond
Loss of the 0.5686 higher low exposes the 0.5681 asia low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high 0.5696 under the Asian high; higher low 0.5686 above the Asian low.
The post-CPI pop to the 0.5710 Asian high faded as the 3.7% miss trimmed RBNZ hike odds. Price slid to a 0.5680 Asian low, and the late-Asia bounce off a 0.5686 higher low now sits at the 38.2% retracement. The 0.5696 lower high and 0.5700 psych cap the move into London open.
Support: 0.56857, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high and the 50% retracement reopens 0.5700 psych and the 0.5710 Asian high
Failure at the 0.5686 higher low exposes the 0.5680 Asian low; a break there extends the Asian-session lower-low sequence
London open typically resolves the Asian range; ATR near 4 pips suggests a compressed starting point
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.56875
Lower highs from 0.5710, compressing 0.5685–0.5691 above the 0.5681 Asian low.
After the NZ CPI miss (3.7% vs 3.8% y/y), the early-Asia rebound to a 0.5710 session high met rejection. Price then sold off in lower highs, with the 03:00 UTC bounce capped at the 0.5696 lower high on the 50% fib, before reaching a 0.5681 Asian low. Late Asia now sits in a tight 0.5685–0.5691 band below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805, 0.56728
Resistance: 0.56905, 0.56956, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5685 cpi low exposes the 0.5681 asian low. A close below that extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5673 wed low.
An M15 close above the 0.5691 bounce high and the 0.5696 lower high (50% fib) neutralises the Asian sell-off structure and reopens the 0.5700 round number.
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of the 0.5681–0.5691 compression.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours.
Lower highs from 0.5710; tight 0.5686–0.5690 consolidation above session low.
Asia ran to a 0.5710 session high after the post-CPI dip, but the hold above the 0.5700 round number failed and price slid to a 0.5681 session low as the soft NZ CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) trimmed RBNZ hike odds. Price is now compressing above the 0.5686 range low, capped below the 38.2% fib at 0.5692 and both EMAs, with London open about 1.5h away.
Support: 0.5686, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56918, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 38.2% fib and the lower-high trendline challenges the sell-off read; 0.5700 round number sits above
Break of the 0.5686 range low and then the 0.5681 session low extends the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5710, tight range above 0.5681 session low.
The post-CPI dip to the 0.5685 cpi low was bought through the 0.5704 prior-day high to 0.5710 in early Asia, but the break failed. Lower highs then took price to a 0.5681 session low, and that move unwound the soft 3.7% print's initial bounce. Late Asia is now compressing in 0.5686–0.5690 below the range top, under both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56905, 0.56956, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56905 range top opens a retest of the 0.56956 lower high, which sits at the 50% fib of the 0.5710–0.5681 drop
Failure to hold the 0.56847 cpi low and the 0.56805 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5700 round number would negate the failed-breakout read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk to the range
Lower highs from 0.5710 Asia high, shallow bounce off 0.5680.
Asia faded from the 0.5710 session high as the NZ CPI miss trimmed RBNZ hike odds. Price printed lower highs down to the 0.5680 Asia low. The bounce is capped at the 0.5690 bounce high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39 heading into London open.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56905, 0.56956, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the lower-high read; 0.5700 round number sits just above
Failure to hold the 0.5685 cpi low exposes the 0.5680 asia low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Price is holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% fade retracement levels; acceptance above 50% near 0.5695 weakens the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5710 Asian high, back inside pre-CPI range.
Early Asia pushed through the 0.5704 NY high to a 0.5710 session high after the soft NZ CPI print, then failed. That failure turned into a lower-high sell-off that undercut the cpi low at 0.5685 and printed a 0.5681 session low. The bounce is stalling under 0.5690, beneath both EMAs, with the falling trendline and the 0.5696 lower high, near the 50% retrace, capping, and the 0.5700 round number above that.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5700 round number and 0.5710 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5685 cpi low exposes the 0.5681 session low; a break there extends the Asia sell-off
London open in ~2h may set a new session range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
04:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, minor bounce off lows · RSI 45 · price 0.56878
Lower highs from 0.5710 Asian high; small bounce off 0.5681 session low.
The post-CPI pop stalled at the 0.5710 session high early in Asia. The pair then printed lower highs, including the 0.5696 lower high, and slid to a 0.5681 session low as the 3.7% NZ CPI miss trimmed RBNZ hike odds. Late Asia has seen a small bounce back above the 0.5685 cpi low, with price still below EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5685 cpi low and the 0.5681 session low extends the lower-low chain into London open
Close above the 0.5696 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read; the 50% fib of the 0.5710–0.5681 drop sits at the same level
0.5700 round number caps the path back toward the 0.5710 session high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5710, sweep of cpi low then reclaim.
In the Asia session, the post-CPI pop to 0.5710 has unwound in a lower-high, lower-low chain as the soft 3.7% NZ CPI print trims RBNZ hike odds. A dip to the 0.5681 session low swept the 0.5685 cpi low and was bought back above it. The 0.5690 swing pivot sits just overhead, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56805
Resistance: 0.56897, 0.56956, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high (50% fib of the post-CPI drop) breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.5700 round number would neutralise the post-CPI downtrend
Failure to hold the 0.5681 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Rejection at the 0.5690 swing pivot keeps the bounce corrective
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 29 · price 0.56838
LH/LL chain below the Asia high; post-CPI low broken.
Asia pushed past the prior-day 0.5704 high to an Asia high of 0.5710 but failed. Lower highs have since carried price through the 0.5685 cpi low to a session low near 0.5680, with RSI(14) near 29. The fade fits the soft NZ CPI print (3.7% vs 3.8%) trimming RBNZ hike odds.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56847, 0.56956, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5685 cpi low undercuts the range-break read
Close above the 0.5696 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the LH/LL sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5680 session low exposes the prior low at 0.5672
Asia high at 0.5710 caps the session range; a return there negates the false-break read
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off the 0.5710 Asia high · RSI 28 · price 0.56867
Rejection at the 0.5710 Asia high after the soft Q3 CPI miss has unwound the whole rebound. A lower-high sequence capped at 0.5696 has carried price back to the 0.5685 CPI low. RSI(14) is near 28, soft but not extreme.
Support: 0.56847, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5685 CPI low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5680 psych level
M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaim of 0.5700 psych reopens the 0.5710 Asia high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after Asia rejection · RSI 39 · price 0.56903
Lower highs from 0.5710, lows holding 0.5690.
The soft Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) dropped NZD to a 0.5685 CPI low. The early Asia session rebound then made a false break of yesterday's 0.5704 prior high to a 0.5710 session high, which was rejected. Price has carved lower highs since and is now testing the 0.5690 swing low, which sits on the 78.6% retracement of the post-CPI leg.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5690 swing low exposes the 0.5685 CPI low
Close above the 0.5696 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 0.5704 prior high would negate the false break read
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 40 · price 0.56922
Failed break above 0.5704; lower highs into 0.5690 swing low.
After the soft NZ CPI dip to the 0.5685 CPI low, Asia session buyers pushed through yesterday's 0.5704 high to a 0.5710 session high. That break was rejected and has fully unwound. Price is back below the 0.5700 psych level, holding the 0.5690 swing low near the 78.6% retracement, with a 0.5696 lower high capping the bounce and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.56897, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5690 swing low exposes the 0.5685 CPI low
M15 close back above the 0.5696 lower high and 0.5700 psych breaks the lower-highs sequence
Only a reclaim of the 0.5710 session high would reverse the false break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:48 UTC
Intraday down-leg, stalling at support · RSI 43 · price 0.56923
Lower highs off 0.5710 session high, basing near 0.5690.
The soft Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) dip to the 0.5685 cpi low reversed into an early Asia session spike to 0.5710. That poke above the prior 0.5704 high failed, and lower highs have since retraced about 80% of the move to the 0.5690 session low. Price sits below the ema20 near 0.5696 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 0.5690, 0.56847, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5690 session low exposes the 0.5685 cpi low, then the 0.5672 day low
Recovery above the 0.5696 ema20 and the 0.5700 psych level reopens the 0.5710 session high
Holding the 78.6% retracement of the cpi-high fib keeps the down-leg read as a pullback
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
02:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 43 · price 0.56918
False break above late-NY highs, lower-high chain into 0.5690.
Early Asia pushed through the NY high at 0.5704 to an Asia high of 0.5710, but the break failed. Price has since slid about 20 pips through the 0.5700 round number in a chain of lower highs, retracing most of the post-CPI leg as the soft Q3 CPI miss weighs on NZD. It now sits on the 0.5690 swing low, between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of that leg.
Support: 0.56897, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5690 swing low exposes the 0.5685 cpi low from the CPI bar
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5704 ny high reopens the 0.5710 asia high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday rally rolling over from session high · RSI 44 · price 0.56919
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5710 session high; 0.5700 lost.
Soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) knocked the kiwi to a 0.5685 CPI low at the rollover. Early Asia then pushed through the prior high at 0.5704 to a 0.5710 session high, but that break failed and price has since slid about 19 pips back under the 0.5700 round number. Price now sits at the 0.5691 swing low, below the 61.8% retrace of the post-CPI leg, with RSI(14) mid-40s and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 0.56906, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5691 swing low exposes the 0.5685 CPI low and full unwind of the post-CPI swing
Recovery above the 0.5700 round number and 0.5704 prior high would negate the false-break read
Rejection at the 0.5710 session high remains the cap on the Asia range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
Lower highs from 0.5710 Asia session high, price back below round number.
The soft Q3 CPI miss (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) knocked NZD to a 0.5685 cpi low. Price then rallied to a 0.5710 session high in early Asia, which was rejected; lower highs since have pulled price back below the 0.5700 round number. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib of that rebound, with RSI(14) near 46 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56944, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number would negate the false break read
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.5694 exposes the 0.5685 cpi low
A break above the 0.5710 session high would end the lower-high sequence from the Asia peak
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read once NY opens
Soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) knocked NZDUSD to a 0.5685 cpi low. Early Asia then lifted it through the 0.5704 prior highs to a 0.5710 cpi high, but that extension failed. Price is back under the 0.5700 round number, sitting on the 50% fib of the post-CPI leg at the 0.5696 pullback low; RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.56964, 0.56907, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5704 prior highs negates the false break read
Failure to hold the 0.5696 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.5694 and the 0.5691 ny swing low
Break of the 0.5685 cpi low would erase the entire post-CPI rebound
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failed break above prior high, lower high at 0.5709, testing 38.2% fib.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI miss sent price to a 0.5685 cpi low. Demand stepped in there, and early Asia session pushed through the 0.5704 prior high to a 0.5710 session high. That break failed after a 0.5709 lower high, and price is back at the 0.5699–0.5700 swing low, sitting on the 38.2% fib and ema20 with RSI(14) cooling to about 56.
Support: 0.56993, 0.56907, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57044, 0.5709, 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5699 swing low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone at 0.5698–0.5694, then the 0.5691 ny low
Reclaiming the 0.5704 prior high revives the breakout read; the 0.5709 lower high and 0.5710 session high cap first
Loss of the 0.5685 cpi low would unwind the entire post-CPI rebound
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since CPI dip; breakout above late-NY 0.5704 cap.
The soft Q3 CPI miss knocked the pair to a 0.5685 cpi low. Asia then reversed the dip within two hours, cleared the late-NY 0.5704 cap and printed a 0.5710 session high. Price is now easing to 0.5705, holding above the 0.5703 pullback low and the rising Asia line, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 0.57033, 0.5700, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57102
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5703 pullback low and the 0.5700 round number exposes the 38.2–50% fib of the CPI-low rebound (0.5700–0.5697)
M15 close above the 0.5710 session high extends the higher-high chain
Break of the Asia rising line would end the post-CPI higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from CPI low, breakout above prior high 0.5704 holding on retest.
The soft Q3 CPI miss knocked NZD to a 0.5685 CPI low after the rollover gap, but the dip was absorbed. Early Asia session reclaimed 0.5700 psych and broke the 0.5704 prior high, tagging a 0.5710 session high; the pullback to 0.5703 held as a retest low, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 0.57033, 0.5700, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5700 psych turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5703 retest low puts the higher-low chain from the CPI low at risk
Clearance of the 0.5710 session high extends the post-CPI rebound
RBNZ hike-odds repricing after the CPI miss could reverse the Asia-session recovery
00:47 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, higher lows since 22:00 UTC · RSI 57 · price 0.57048
V-recovery from 0.5685 CPI low, now retesting 0.5704 prior highs.
Soft Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) knocked NZD to a 0.5685 cpi low, but demand stepped in and price reclaimed the 0.5700 round number in early Asia hours. The rally peaked at a 0.5710 session high and met rejection there, slipping back to retest the 0.5704 pre-CPI highs; RSI(14) is cooling to 57.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56944, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5700 round number would mark the 0.5710 spike as a false break
Loss of the 0.5694 61.8% fib, which aligns with the 18:45 UTC dip low, exposes the 0.5685 cpi low
M15 close above the 0.5710 session high extends the higher-low chain
RBNZ speakers reacting to the CPI miss and shifts in Oct 28 hike odds could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.5699 after CPI low, new session high at 0.5710.
The soft NZ CPI miss dragged the pair to a 0.56847 cpi low on the release bar. That move below 0.5700 psych was fully reclaimed, and early Asia session printed a new session high at 0.5710. London and NY had already broken above the 0.5695 range top, and RSI(14) is near 63, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5695, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57102
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5700 psych turns the CPI reclaim into a failed hold
Loss of the 0.5695 range top reopens the cpi low at 0.56847
Rejection at the 0.5710 session high would leave a lower-high risk inside the post-CPI swing
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg
Post-CPI V-recovery; capped at 0.5704–0.5706 prior highs.
The soft Q3 CPI miss knocked NZDUSD to a 0.5685 cpi low, but early Asia session buying fully retraced the drop. Price is back above the 0.5700 psych level, with a false break of the 0.5704 prior highs to a 0.5706 session high. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56954, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.5706, 0.57044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5706 session high clears the 0.5704 prior highs and ends the false break read
Failure to hold 0.5700 psych puts the 50% fib of the CPI swing at 0.5695 and the rising trendline in play
A break of the 0.5685 cpi low would erase the post-CPI recovery
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Higher lows since the CPI-bar low, pressing the session high.
Soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) dropped the pair to the 0.5685 cpi low on the 21:45 UTC bar. Early Asia session has retraced the whole post-CPI move, and price is now retesting the 0.5704–0.5705 session high from the NY breakout. The 0.5700 psych level is holding beneath, with the 0.5694 ny low and the 50% fib of the post-CPI move just below.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5694, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57052, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 session high extends the NY breakout and opens the 0.5710 round number
Failure to hold 0.5700 psych reopens the 0.5694 ny low and the 50% fib of the post-CPI move
A break of the 0.5685 cpi low negates the recovery and confirms the post-CPI move as a lower-low
RBNZ speaker reaction to the CPI miss could shift Oct 28 hike pricing and this read