21:05 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under the month high · RSI 59 · price 0.56996
Higher lows since the Oct 14 low; 0.5668–0.5710 consolidation.
Higher-low structure has held since the 0.5565 oct low, with a rising trendline under the 0.5647 and 0.5668 pivots. Price is above both EMAs, and EMA20 has held above EMA50 since the mid-month leg. The soft Q3 CPI print (3.7% vs 3.8%) stalled the rally just under the 0.5710 month high, and price has since tightened into a 0.5668–0.5710 consolidation. ATR(14) has contracted to roughly 15 pips from about 30 during the breakout leg, which points to compression ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5655, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5750
What it said to watch
- RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC: a hold or a dovish hike could materially shift this read
- FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC adds a second volatility event inside the same session window
- H4 close above the 0.5710 month high breaks the consolidation and opens the path toward the 0.5750 psych level
- Failure to hold the 0.5668 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence, exposing the fib 38.2 at 0.5655
- A deeper unwind would bring the 0.5565 oct low back into view