21:06 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce stalling at EMA50 · RSI 55 · price 0.56996
Lower highs from Aug 21 peak; base 0.5565–0.5630 broken higher, now capped near 0.5710.
The decline from the Aug 21 high at 0.5988 put price below a rolling-over EMA(50) from Sep 10 and ended in a three-week base between the Oct 14 low at 0.5565 and the 0.5630 base top. Five straight sessions then lifted price out of that base and back above EMA(20) on hawkish RBNZ pricing. The rally stalled at the 1m high at 0.5710 after the soft Q3 CPI print, with EMA(50) near 0.5706 overlapping that cap and the move sitting between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of the Aug–Oct fib.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5630, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5750, 0.5826
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1m high at 0.5710 and EMA(50) opens the 38.2% fib at 0.5727 and the sept pivot at 0.5750
- Above 0.5750, the 61.8% fib at 0.5826 is the next retracement level on the Aug–Oct fib
- Close below the rally line and EMA(20) near 0.5663 shifts focus back to the 0.5630 base top
- Failure to hold the Oct 14 low at 0.5565 resumes the lower-low sequence
- RBNZ decision Oct 28 (hike to 3.00% expected) and the FOMC later that day could materially shift this read