Rally from 0.5565 capped at 0.5700/0.5710, then a one-bar RBNZ flush broke the rising trendline; price now retracing that drop.
The higher-low advance from the 0.5565 swing low stalled after repeated rejection at the 0.5700/0.5710 range top. The RBNZ's surprise hold flushed price about 92 pips to the 0.5583 RBNZ low in a single bar and broke the rising trendline. The rebound has reached the 38.2% fib of that drop near 0.5631, with the 50% fib at 0.5646 and the 61.8% fib near 0.5662 overhead; price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 22 pips on the shock bar.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5662, 0.5708
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 61.8% fib at 0.5662, where EMA20 converges, would undercut the range-break read
A failure to hold the minor low at 0.5595 exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low and the 0.5565 swing low
Stalling at the 50% fib at 0.5646 would mark a lower high below the range top
US core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read after the post-FOMC USD dip
17:05 UTC
Range broken lower, sharp reversal of mid-month rally · RSI 29 · price 0.56198
Lower low below 0.5670 range floor; back inside the prior 0.5583-0.5635 range.
The RBNZ's surprise hold triggered a ~90-pip H4 bar that broke the week-long 0.5670-0.5710 range and printed the 0.5583 rbnz low. That move erased most of the rise from the 0.5565 swing low, and price now sits on the 61.8% retracement of that rally near 0.5621. ATR(14) has expanded to about 20 pips, RSI is near 29 and the EMA20 has rolled down onto the EMA50 around 0.5665, while price trades back inside the early-month range under the 0.5635 prior cap.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5668, 0.5710
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5565 swing low and the 0.5550 multi-month support
Recovery through the 0.5635 prior cap brings the broken range floor at 0.5668, near the EMA50, back into view
Range top at 0.5710 capped four separate tests this month; it remains the upper boundary of the structure
Triple top at 0.5710 range cap resolved below the 0.5670 floor.
The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold at 2.75% produced a ~92-pip single bar from the 0.5675 breakdown point to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. That bar ended two weeks of supply capping the 0.5700/0.5710 range cap, and the three failed tests there now read as a completed triple top. Price has stalled near 0.5609, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements of the 0.5565 swing low to 0.5710 rally fib, back inside the early-month 0.5580-0.5630 range. ATR(14) has expanded to ~21 pips, RSI is oversold, and EMA20 is converging on EMA50 around 0.5667, with an H4 cross pending.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5675, 0.5710
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5565 swing low and 0.5550
Reclaim of the 0.5630 range top would put price back toward the 0.5675 breakdown level
A return above 0.5675 would neutralise the triple top; the 0.5700/0.5710 range cap remains the upper bound
US core PCE on Thursday at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility risk
Double top at 0.5710 resolved lower; price back inside the prior 0.5580-0.5634 range.
The two-week higher-low sequence from the 0.5565 monthly low stalled into a double top near 0.5710. The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% then drove a 93-pip bar that broke rising support and the 0.5670 neckline. That bar retraced beyond the 61.8% fib of the 0.5565-0.5710 leg and tagged the old 0.5583 range floor before a partial recovery. Price now sits just above the 0.5600 psych level, below both EMAs, with ATR(14) expanding sharply from the prior ~14-pip compression regime.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5634, 0.5662
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 0.5583 range floor exposes the 0.5565 monthly low
Reclaiming the 61.8% fib at 0.5621 and the 0.5634 range top would ease the breakdown read; ema50 near 0.5662 caps above
EMA20 rolling toward EMA50 — a bearish ema cross would confirm the swing shift
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the next risk event for this structure
Week-long 0.5670–0.5710 range broken lower; rally from monthly low largely retraced.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the 0.5670 range floor of the week-long 0.5670–0.5710 range. A single 93-pip bar retraced more than 78.6% of the rally fib from the 0.5565 monthly low and cut through the uptrend line from mid-October. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 26 and ATR(14) jumping to ~20 pips from a compressed ~14. The wick to the 0.5583 rbnz low and close back above the 0.5600 round number show demand stepping in at the old early-October range base, with the 0.5630 prior cap overhead.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5670, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5565 monthly low
Recovery through the 0.5630 prior cap and back above the 0.5670 range floor would weaken the breakdown read; 0.5710 range top remains the swing high
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the swing rolling over
FOMC at 18:00 UTC today: a hawkish lean could extend the drop, a dovish hold could support a bounce toward the range floor
RBNZ presser explicitly signalling a December hike could drive a retrace back above the 0.5600 round number
Higher highs/lows from 0.5565 low, now a 0.5668–0.5710 range.
Higher highs and higher lows off the mid-October 0.5565 swing low carried price to the 0.5710 range top. The soft NZ Q3 CPI miss stalled that leg there, and since then supply has capped every push near the 0.5700 psych pivot while the 0.5668 range floor held twice. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 14 pips from 30+ during the rally, a firm USD into FOMC is pressing on the range, and price sits below EMA20 but above EMA50 with the H4 EMA20/50 cross still positive.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5655, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5710, 0.5750
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS due now could break the 0.5668–0.5710 range; the guidance matters more than the fully priced hike
H4 close above the 0.5710 range top opens the path to the 0.5750 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5668 range floor exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.5655, then 0.5600 psych
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could override any post-RBNZ move in the range