Post-RBNZ impulse low, higher-low flag below the broken range.
The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold in Wednesday's Asia session broke NZDUSD out of the 0.5670–0.5708 Monday–Tuesday range. The roughly 125-pip impulse ran to a 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then H1 has built higher lows at 0.5595 and the 0.5609 fed low, and the post-FOMC USD softening lifted price to a 0.5638 fed high, close to the 38.2% retracement of the drop, where the bounce stalled. Price now sits on a flattening EMA(20) near 0.5626 with RSI(14) around 47, a flag-like recovery still well below the broken range floor.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5670, 0.5708
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5609 fed low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.5595 higher low and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Failure to hold the 0.5583 rbnz low puts the 0.5564/0.5550 18-month-low support zone in play
H1 close above the 0.5638 fed high clears the 38.2% retracement; the 0.5670 range floor is the next structural resistance, then the 0.5708 week high
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Range break lower; rising flag of higher lows capped at ema20.
From Monday's open through Tuesday, price held a 0.5670–0.5708 range, with the 0.5700 area capping repeated tests. The RBNZ's surprise hold then broke the range lower in the Asia session, a roughly 100-pip slide from the pre-rbnz hi at 0.5685 to the 0.5583 week low. Since then a flag-like recovery has built higher lows off the 0.5595 rbnz base, but the post-Fed spike to the 0.5638 fomc high faded back under the 38.2% fib near 0.5630. Price now sits just below ema20 at 0.5626, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5638, 0.5685
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the post-rbnz higher-lows trendline (~0.5616) and the 0.5609 fomc low ends the flag read and exposes the rbnz base at 0.5595 and the week low at 0.5583
Sustained H1 closes above ema20 and the 0.5638 fomc high would clear the 38.2% fib and open the path toward the 0.5685 pre-rbnz hi
US core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu at 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, then higher lows off the post-RBNZ base.
Monday and Tuesday held a 0.5670–0.5707 range, with the week high at 0.5707 capping repeated tests. The RBNZ's surprise hold then broke the range lower during the Asia session, driving a 90-pip flush from the pre-RBNZ 0.5675 area to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. Since then the pair has built higher lows from the 0.5595 London low. USD softness after the FOMC lifted it to the 0.5638 FOMC high, near the 50% retrace of the RBNZ drop, before a rejection back to 0.5624, just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovered to ~46 from oversold.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5675, 0.5707
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 0.5638 FOMC high and the 50% retrace of the RBNZ drop opens the pre-RBNZ 0.5675 area, with the 0.5707 week high above.
Loss of the 0.5609 FOMC low breaks the higher-lows trendline. Below the 0.5595 London low, the 0.5583 RBNZ low is exposed.
Price is holding just under EMA(20) near 0.5627. Repeated hourly closes below it keep the post-RBNZ base capped.
US core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu at 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read.
20:04 UTC
Sharp RBNZ selloff, now a corrective rebound · RSI 50 · price 0.56312
Higher lows off the 0.5583 low, testing the 38.2% retracement.
Monday and Tuesday held a 0.5670–0.5707 range, with the week high at 0.5707 capping Tuesday's London push. The range broke lower in the Asia session after the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold, a ~93-pip flush to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. London then set a higher low at 0.5595, and price has since ground back to the 38.2% retracement of the RBNZ drop. Price is now sitting just above EMA(20) near 0.5627; the FOMC spike to the 0.5638 high was partly faded, RSI(14) has recovered to ~50, and EMA(50) is still well overhead.
Support: 0.5627, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5675, 0.5707
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 FOMC high brings the 50% retracement near 0.5645 and the pre-RBNZ 0.5675 area into view
Failure to hold the higher-lows line and the 0.5595 higher low reopens the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Warsh presser in progress and Thu 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
Week high at 0.5707 remains the upper bound of the pre-decision range
Range break lower, higher-low consolidation under ema20.
NZD/USD capped at 0.5700–0.5707 on Monday and Tuesday, then collapsed in today's Asia session to a 0.5583 rbnz low after the surprise 4-3 RBNZ hold flushed crowded hike positioning. Since the London low at 0.5595 it has carved higher lows near 0.5609, and the FOMC bar spiked to 0.5638, through the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, before closing back under ema20 near 0.5627. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-40s, but the move remains a shallow correction inside the post-RBNZ breakdown.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5638, 0.5707
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 fomc high and 38.2% fib would extend the corrective bounce toward the 50% fib near 0.5645
Break of the higher lows trendline near 0.5609 reopens the 0.5595 london low and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Week high at 0.5707 remains the upper boundary of the prior range, untested since the breakdown
Warsh press conference in progress; tone on a December hike could materially shift this read
US Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled volatility risk
Range break lower, then higher lows capped at EMA20.
The week opened near 0.5695 and ranged 0.5670–0.5707 through Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday's push to the 0.5707 week high again failing below 0.5710. The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold broke that range in today's Asia session, a ~92-pip bar down to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. Higher lows from the 0.5595 swing low carried price into the NY session, but the 0.5629 rebound high stalled at EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the RBNZ drop, with RSI(14) recovering only to ~43.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5675, 0.57075
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read; a hawkish December signal would put the 0.5595 swing low and the 0.5583 RBNZ low back in focus
H1 close above EMA(20) and the 0.5629 rebound high opens the path to the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ low
Failure to hold the 0.5595 swing low breaks the rebound-lows trendline and exposes 0.5583, then the 0.5560 range floor
Tuesday's 0.5707 week high remains the cap of the pre-RBNZ range
Monday and Tuesday printed a double top near 0.5707. The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC today broke the 0.5670 neckline in a 92-pip hourly drop to the 0.5583 rbnz low. A higher low at 0.5595 formed in the London session, and London-NY hours have lifted price back to EMA(20) near 0.5628, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5707–0.5583 decline. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s, but price remains well below EMA(50).
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.56451, 0.5675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the ema20 / 38.2% zone at 0.5628–0.5630 opens the 50% fib at 0.5645, then the pre-rbnz level at 0.5675
Failure to hold the 0.5595 higher low exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low and the 0.5550 range floor
US core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the next risk event after the Fed
Range break lower, tight post-drop consolidation with higher lows.
The 0.5670–0.5708 range that held from Monday through Tuesday broke lower in today's Asia session. The surprise RBNZ hold at 2.75% sent NZD/USD about 90 pips down to the 0.5583 rbnz low, and the bar opened at the 0.5675 rbnz origin. Since then price has formed a higher low at 0.5595 in London and pushed back to the 0.5622 bounce high early in the NY session. It holds just above the 23.6% fib but remains capped by ema20 near 0.5625. RSI(14) has recovered to around 41, while the post-drop range is roughly 0.5595–0.5622 against an ATR of about 10 pips.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827, 0.5564
Resistance: 0.56223, 0.5625, 0.56754
What it said to watch
H1 close above the bounce high and ema20 (0.5622–0.5625) opens the 38.2% fib near 0.5630, with the 0.5675 rbnz origin above
Failure to hold the 0.5595 higher low breaks the post-rbnz higher lows trendline and puts the 0.5583 rbnz low back in play
A break of the rbnz low exposes the 0.5564 18m low and the 0.5560/0.5550 zone
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A rebound back toward 0.5700 would retest the level that capped four sessions before the break
NZD/USD failed four times to hold above the 0.5700 range top. The surprise RBNZ hold at 2.75% during the Asia session then broke the Monday–Tuesday range with a 90-pip hourly bar to a 0.5583 week low. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5595 range low to 0.5619 range high band through London. That band sits at the 23.6% retracement of the Tuesday-high-to-RBNZ-low drop, with EMA(20) near 0.5627 overhead and RSI(14) only around 32.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827, 0.5564
Resistance: 0.56193, 0.5627, 0.56945
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; December guidance is the swing factor
An H1 close above the 0.5619 range high and the ema20 near 0.5627 would mark the first recovery off the 23.6% fib
Failure to hold the 0.5595 range low exposes the 0.5583 week low, then the 0.5564 18m low and the 0.5550 zone
Any retracement toward the 0.5695 weekly open runs into the former range top near 0.5700
Range break lower, tight post-RBNZ consolidation below EMA20.
NZD/USD spent four sessions capped near 0.5700 before the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold at 2.75% hit in the Asia session. The 01:00 UTC bar fell 92 pips to the 0.5583 RBNZ low and broke the week's range through the 0.5670 Monday low. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5595–0.5619 band, with the London low at 0.5595 holding. The NY-morning push is testing the range top, which sits at the 23.6% retracement of the week-high-to-RBNZ-low drop. Price remains below EMA(20) near 0.5630, which aligns with the 38.2% level, and RSI(14) has recovered only to ~35.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5583, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5630, 0.5670
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5619 range top and the 0.5630 ema20 would mark the first reclaim since the RBNZ drop
Failure below the 0.5595 london low and the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5560/0.5550 multi-month support
Recovery back to the 0.5670 monday low would put price back inside the prior weekly range
Thursday 12:30 UTC US PCE data is the next scheduled risk after the Fed
13:05 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ shock, consolidating near lows · RSI 36 · price 0.56157
Weekly range broken lower; tight post-shock range 0.5595–0.5618 below EMA20.
NZDUSD ranged 0.5670–0.5708 from the Monday low through Tuesday, with the 0.5700 area capping repeated attempts. The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC in the Asia session then drove a roughly 90-pip range break to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. Since then price has held a 0.5595–0.5618 consolidation, printing a higher low at 0.5595 during London and now pressing the post-RBNZ cap, while RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-30s and price remains below the EMA20 near 0.5630, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5583, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5630, 0.5670
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5618 post-RBNZ cap and the 0.5630 EMA20/38.2% fib would mark a deeper retracement toward the 0.5670 Monday low
Failure to hold the 0.5595 higher low puts the 0.5583 RBNZ low back in play, with 0.5560/0.5550 multi-month support beneath
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US core PCE Thursday 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk for the post-shock range
Double top at 0.5707 broken through 0.5670 neckline; tight base 0.5595–0.5618.
NZD/USD was capped just under 0.5710 on Monday and Tuesday, forming a double top. The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% then broke the week's range in a single ~93-pip Asia-session bar, taking out the 0.5670 monday low and printing the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then price has held a 0.5595–0.5618 base through London, below a falling ema20 near 0.5632, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-20s.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5632, 0.5670
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5595 london low reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low; failure there exposes the 0.5560 range floor
Recovery above the 0.5618 post-rbnz hi and the ema20/38.2% fib near 0.5630 would mark a deeper retracement of the drop
Thursday's US core PCE at 12:30 UTC is next-day risk
11:03 UTC
Sharp downtrend after the RBNZ hold, momentum stretched · RSI 21 · price 0.5603
Impulsive range break below 0.5670, then tight post-shock consolidation 0.5595–0.5618.
The week opened at 0.5695 and spent Monday–Tuesday ranging under 0.5700/0.5708, with lower highs forming from Tuesday's 0.5708 week high before the RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC triggered a ~90-pip Asia-session collapse to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. Since then price has compressed between the 0.5618 post-RBNZ high and a fresh 0.5595 London low. It sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 21 and no reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 0.5630. The 0.5560/0.5550 range floor from the digest is the next marked level below.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5583, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5630, 0.5675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish December signal puts the 0.5555 range floor in play
H1 close below the 0.5583 RBNZ low extends the lower-low sequence toward the range floor
H1 close above the 0.5618 post-RBNZ high breaks the consolidation and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5630
Recovery back to the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ level would retrace most of the shock move and test the lower highs line
Thursday's US core PCE (12:30 UTC) is the follow-on risk after FOMC
0.5670–0.5707 weekly range broken; post-RBNZ base giving way below 0.5600.
NZD/USD held a 0.5670–0.5707 range through Monday and Tuesday, with supply capping three tests near 0.5700. In Asia today the RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% (3% expected) drove a ~92-pip drop to the 0.5583 RBNZ low, and that took out the range low at 0.5670. After a post-decision consolidation capped at the 0.5618 post-RBNZ high, London pushed price under 0.5600 psych to a fresh session low at 0.5598. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) oversold near 24.
Support: 0.55975, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56183, 0.5670
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.5600 psych and the 0.5618 post-RBNZ high would undo the London slide and expose the 38.2% fib near 0.5630
Failure to hold the 0.5598 session low reopens the 0.5583 RBNZ low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Range low at 0.5670 now caps any recovery of the RBNZ leg; US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the next USD risk
Week's range broken lower, tight post-shock consolidation above 0.5600.
NZD/USD spent Monday and Tuesday rotating inside a 0.5670–0.5708 range, with Tuesday's push to 0.57075 fading into the NY session. The surprise RBNZ hold at 2.75% (3% expected) broke that range in today's Asia session, a near-100-pip bar to the 0.55827 rbnz low that cleared the monday low. Since then price has held a tight 0.5598–0.5618 band through the London open, sitting just above the 0.5600 psych level with RSI(14) near 25 and price well below EMA(20) around 0.5641.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5641, 0.56696
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.55978 post-drop low exposes the 0.55827 rbnz low
Close above the 0.5618 range top opens the path to EMA(20) near 0.5641 and the 38.2% retrace of the rbnz drop at 0.5630
Monday low at 0.56696 is now overhead resistance; a return through it would negate the range-break read
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thu–Tue 0.5668–0.5708 range broken lower; tight post-RBNZ box 0.5598–0.5618.
From Thursday to Tuesday the pair held a 0.5668–0.5708 range, with the range top capping Friday, Monday and Tuesday. At 01:00 UTC the RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the range low and sent NZD/USD through 0.5600 to the 0.5583 RBNZ low in a single bar, leaving the week's 0.5695 open well overhead. Since then price has compressed between 0.5598 and the 0.5618 post-RBNZ high through the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 21 and price roughly 40 pips under a falling EMA(20) near 0.5645.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5645, 0.5668
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5598 and the 0.5600 round number breaks the post-RBNZ box and exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
H1 close above the 0.5618 post-RBNZ high puts the 38.2% retracement of the RBNZ drop fib (0.5630) and EMA(20) near 0.5645 in play
Former range low at 0.5668 now sits overhead; a return there would retrace about 60% of the RBNZ drop
RBNZ presser language on a December hike today, and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
0.5670–0.5708 range broken lower; tight post-shock consolidation above 0.5600.
From Thursday through Tuesday NZD/USD ranged between a range floor near 0.5670 and the 0.5700/0.5710 area, where supply capped three tests, including Tuesday's 0.57075 week high at the NY open. The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% during today's Asia session broke the range floor in a single 92-pip bar to the rbnz low at 0.55827. Since then, price has compressed in a roughly 15-pip band between psych 0.5600 and the post-RBNZ high at 0.5617. RSI(14) near 27 is oversold and price sits well below both EMAs, with the bounce retracing less than a quarter of the move from the week high to the RBNZ low.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56175, 0.56451, 0.5670
What it said to watch
H1 close above the post-RBNZ high at 0.5617 opens the 50% fib near 0.5645
Failure to hold psych 0.5600 exposes the rbnz low at 0.55827
Reclaiming the range floor at 0.5670 would neutralise the range break
RBNZ presser language on a December hike could shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially move this read
06:03 UTC
Downtrend after range break, momentum stalling · RSI 25 · price 0.56094
Range floor broken; tight post-RBNZ consolidation with lower highs.
NZD/USD spent Monday and Tuesday capped between 0.5670 and 0.5707, then broke the range floor in the Asia session after the RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75%. The 01:00 UTC bar dropped about 90 pips to the RBNZ spike low at 0.5583 before rebounding. Since then price has compressed between the 0.5598 Asia low and the 0.5618 Asia high, with lower highs capping near the 23.6% fib of the drop. RSI(14) is oversold near 25, and price sits well below a falling EMA(20) around 0.5652.
Support: 0.5598, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5652, 0.5670
What it said to watch
RBNZ press conference today: firmer December-hike guidance could test the 0.5618 Asia high and the 38.2% fib near 0.5630
H1 close below the 0.5598 Asia low exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ spike low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
Recovery to EMA(20) near 0.5652 and the 0.5670 range floor would retest the broken range
0.5670–0.5708 range broken lower; tight post-RBNZ base 0.5605–0.5618.
NZDUSD rotated inside a 0.5670–0.5708 range from Monday's open. Tuesday's push to the 0.5708 week high faded into lower highs, and the RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% (3% expected) then broke the range floor in the Asia session, a ~93-pip hourly bar that set a 0.5583 spike low as crowded long-NZD positioning unwound. Since then price has compressed between the post-RBNZ lows at 0.5605 and the post-RBNZ high at 0.5618, well below EMA(20) near 0.5655, with RSI(14) oversold around 22 and the rebound still short of the 38.2% fib of the RBNZ drop near 0.5630.
Support: 0.5605, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5655, 0.5670
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5618 post-RBNZ high opens the 38.2% fib near 0.5630 and EMA(20) near 0.5655
Failure to hold the 0.5605 post-RBNZ lows and the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5583 spike low
A recovery back above the 0.5670 range floor would neutralise the range break read
RBNZ presser tone on a December hike, then the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
RSI(14) holding sub-30 while price stalls flags the oversold condition persisting rather than unwinding
04:03 UTC
Sharp downtrend after range break, oversold · RSI 24 · price 0.56141
Range break lower from 0.5670–0.5707, consolidating above 0.5600.
From Thursday through Tuesday, NZDUSD held a 0.5670–0.5707 range. Supply capped the week high at 0.5707 into the London-NY transition on Tuesday, and lower highs followed into the Asia session. The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% then produced a 92-pip Asia-session bar to the rbnz low at 0.5583, a clean range break that unwound crowded hike positioning. Price is now compressing at 0.5614, just above the 0.5600 psych handle and capped by the post-drop high at 0.5618. RSI(14) is oversold near 24, and both EMAs sit well overhead.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56175, 0.56304, 0.5670
What it said to watch
RBNZ press conference today: firm December hike guidance could trigger a retracement toward the fib 38.2 at 0.5630
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC Wed (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD
H1 close below the 0.5600 psych handle exposes the rbnz low at 0.5583
Reclaiming the range low at 0.5670 would negate the range break read
Lower highs trendline from the week high remains intact while price holds below 0.5687
03:04 UTC
Sharp downturn after range break, oversold · RSI 24 · price 0.56107
0.5670–0.5708 weekly range broken lower; post-RBNZ bars compressing above 0.5598.
NZDUSD held a 0.5670–0.5708 range from Monday's open. Monday's NY dip to the range floor at 0.5670 was recovered, and Tuesday's push to the 0.5708 week high was capped near 0.5700. The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% hit in Wednesday's Asia session and broke that floor in a single 93-pip bar to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Since then the post-drop bars have compressed between 0.5598 (post-drop lo) and 0.5618 (post-drop hi), with price well below EMA(20) near 0.5667 and RSI(14) around 24.
Support: 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56175, 0.56451, 0.56696
What it said to watch
H1 close above the post-drop hi at 0.5618 opens a retracement toward the 50% fib of the RBNZ drop at 0.5645
Failure to hold 0.5600 and the post-drop lo at 0.5598 exposes the rbnz low at 0.5583
Range floor at 0.5670, now converging with EMA(20), is the level where any retracement meets former support
RBNZ press conference today and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend after range break, deeply oversold · RSI 20 · price 0.56142
Week-long 0.5670-0.5708 range broken lower in one bar; first bounce off the RBNZ low.
From Sunday's 0.5695 open, NZDUSD held a 0.5670-0.5708 range. Supply capped the range top at 0.5700 on Monday and again in Tuesday's London-NY session, leaving a sequence of lower highs. The surprise RBNZ hold at 2.75% then broke the range floor in a single Asia-session bar of about 93 pips to 0.5583, the rbnz low. Price now sits near 0.5614, well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 19 and the 50% fib of the week's drop at 0.5645 the first retracement marker above.
Support: 0.55827, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5670, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5670 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5600 psych level and confirms a lower-low
Rejection below the 50% fib at 0.5645 keeps the lower highs sequence intact
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today, with the press conference at 18:30, could materially shift this read
Core PCE Thursday 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side catalyst
Four-session 0.5670–0.5707 range broken on the RBNZ bar.
NZD/USD held a 0.5670–0.5707 range for four sessions, with the 0.5700 pivot capping every push. Tuesday's London rally to a 0.5708 week high faded through NY hours as the dollar held two-week highs into the Fed. The 01:00 UTC RBNZ decision bar then dropped about 90 pips through the range floor and the 0.5600 psych level to a 0.5583 rbnz low before recovering to 0.5609, a reaction in line with the digest's dovish-leaning scenario, leaving RSI(14) oversold near 24 and ATR expanding sharply.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5667, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
The RBNZ reaction bar is still forming; a close back above 0.5667 range floor would turn the move into a false break
Hourly closes below 0.5600 psych and a break of the 0.5583 rbnz low would confirm a lower-low below the range
Recovery toward the 0.5700 pivot and 0.5708 week high would negate the breakdown read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 UTC US core PCE is the follow-through risk
0.5668–0.5707 range; lower highs off Tuesday's week high.
NZDUSD has been range-bound between the 0.5668 range floor and the 0.5707 week high since Thursday. Monday's and Tuesday's rallies both stalled just above the 0.5700 pivot as firm US data kept USD bid. Tuesday's push to 0.5707 into the London-NY transition was sold through the NY session down to a 0.5677 tue low. That leaves a run of tue lower highs, price below the ema20 near 0.5687, RSI(14) near 40, and roughly 71% of the mon-tue swing retraced.
Support: 0.5677, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5700, 0.5707
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT, about 1h after the last bar: the hike is fully priced, so guidance could test either range edge
An H1 close above the 0.5707 week high invalidates the range read; reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5687 would break the tue lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.5668 range floor confirms a range break, with the digest's 0.5600 support next
The Fed decision on Wed at 18:00 UTC could reprice any post-RBNZ move