USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 1.42217
Lower highs from 1.4262 NY high; day range broken below 1.4230.
The post-ISM spike to the 1.4262 NY high faded into a chain of lower highs. Price broke the Asian/London broken low at 1.4230 and set a day low at 1.4217 into rollover. It is now compressing in a thin 1.4217–1.4227 band with RSI(14) near 37, as firm US data (ISM prices paid 77.9) failed to hold the pair up.
Support: 1.42173, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4230 broken low and the lower-highs line negates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.4217 day low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A retrace through the 38.2% fib near 1.4234 would mark the NY selloff as corrective
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4262 NY high, range floor broken.
USD/CAD faded the post-ISM 1.4262 session high through late NY and broke the 1.4231 range floor that had held since the Asian session, printing a 1.4217 swing low into rollover even with USD bid on the claims beat. Early Asia is compressing 1.4221–1.4227 just under the broken floor and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 range floor negates the range break
Recovery capped below the 38.2% of the ny high-low fib (~1.4234) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.4217 swing low exposes the 1.4200 round number
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a close above the 1.4262 session high would reverse it
23:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.42222
Lower highs and lower lows from the NY day high; tight post-rollover band.
The pair failed at the 1.4262 day high in NY trade after the ISM spike. A lower-high chain then broke the 1.4231 london low and printed a 1.4217 ny low into the close, despite the firm USD backdrop. The rollover gap lifted price to a 1.4227 asia high, and early Asia is holding a 4-pip band with the NY selloff barely retraced.
Support: 1.42173, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42266, 1.42311, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4231 london low reclaims the broken level and undercuts the lower-high read
Break of the 1.4217 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery to the 50% retrace of the NY selloff near 1.4240 would mark a deeper corrective bounce
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; thin Asian liquidity until then
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, flattening in early Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.42229
Lower highs from 1.4262 session high; Asian low lost.
London and NY both pushed above the Asian range, but the NY spike to the 1.4262 session high failed despite firm US claims. Price then slid through lower highs at 1.4253 and 1.4247, broke the 1.4231 Asian low and printed a 1.4217 session low. Since a small gap around the daily rollover, it has stalled near 1.4223 in thin early Asia trade, capped by EMA20 and below the 38.2% of the session high-low fib.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4247, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4231 asian low, near the 38.2% fib, would neutralise the late-NY breakdown
A move through the 1.4247 lower high, at the 61.8% fib, would reopen the 1.4262 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4217 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP is outside this window but is the main event risk for the next session
Lower highs and lows from the 1.4262 NY high; Asian range low broken.
London broke above the 1.4250 asian high, and NY extended to a 1.4262 ny high after the ISM prices-paid beat before a rejection there. Price then slid through the 1.4231 asian low to a 1.4217 session low in thin late-NY and rollover trade, now holding just below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.42173, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4231 asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the ny high-low drop, reopens the 1.4250 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4217 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP could materially shift this read; the 1.4262 ny high marks the top of the day's range
Lower highs from 1.4262 session high; Asian range low broken.
The NY session rejected the 1.4262 session high and sold off in a steady lower-high sequence. That NY decline broke the prior Asian low near 1.4231 and printed a 1.4217 day low into the close, despite firm USD tone around strong claims data. The new Asia session opened with a small pop to a 1.4227 bounce high, but price is still below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.42173, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42266, 1.4231, 1.42397
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 asian low would neutralise the range-break read
Reclaim of the 50% fib at 1.4240 retraces half the NY decline and breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4217 day low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Failure at the 1.4227 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4262 NY high; Asian range low broken.
USD/CAD printed a session high at 1.4262 in early NY hours, then faded through the Asian low near 1.4231 to a 1.4217 session low after NY close as the stretched dollar rally lost momentum. The rollover gap open at 1.4221 lifted price to 1.4226, just under the EMA20 near 1.4228. RSI(14) is at 40.
Support: 1.4221, 1.4217
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4231, 1.4240
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4221 gap open puts the 1.4217 session low in play and extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 1.4231 Asian low reverses the range break and opens the 50% fib at 1.4240
Thin Asia session liquidity can exaggerate moves around the ema20
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into the close · RSI 22 · price 1.42177
Lower highs from the 1.4262 NY high; day range broken lower.
The late-NY slide from the 1.4262 NY high cut through the London low near 1.4231 and the Asian low at 1.4226, leaving a lower-highs sequence that has stalled at a 1.4218 session low in thin post-NY trade. RSI(14) sits near 22, oversold, with the 1.4200 psych level just below as an overbought USD cools with US yields.
Support: 1.42175, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.42258, 1.4231, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 london low would undo the range break
Close through the lower-highs trendline near 1.4219 would mark the first break in the sequence
Failure to hold 1.4200 psych would expose the 1.4155 post-PCE low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Fib 38.2–50% of the NY high-to-session low drop sits at 1.4234–1.4240
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 21 · price 1.42177
Lower highs from 1.4262 day high; Asian low and 1.4230 floor broken.
USDCAD set the day high at 1.4262 in NY hours, then printed a steady lower-high line. That sequence broke the 1.4230 floor, which had held three times since London open, and took out the 1.4226 Asian low. Price now sits on the session low at 1.4218 in thin post-NY trade with RSI(14) near 21. Per the digest, the move is a fade of a stretched, overbought USD/CAD despite firm US claims data.
Support: 1.42175, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.42258, 1.4230, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4226 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4230 broken floor and the lower-high line would undo the downtrend read; the 38.2% fib of the 1.4262 drop sits near 1.4235
Extension below the 1.4218 session low leaves the 1.4155 PCE low as the next reference
NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extended into the 24h low · RSI 30 · price 1.42183
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4262 NY high; Asian low broken.
After rejection at the 1.4262 NY high, USD/CAD built a chain of lower highs through late NY and broke the 1.4231 asian low. It is now pressing the 24h low near 1.4218 in thin post-close trade, despite firm US claims and a hot ISM prices print earlier in the day. RSI(14) near 30 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.42177, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42311, 1.42496, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 asian low turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4155 post-PCE low
A break above the lower highs trendline, then 1.4250 asian high, would neutralise the NY fade
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next scheduled driver that could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 15:30 UTC · RSI 32 · price 1.42193
1.4230 floor broken late NY, lower-high chain from 1.4262.
Rejection at the 1.4262 NY session high started a lower-high sequence. The late-NY slide then broke the 1.4230 range floor that had held through Asia, London and the NY open, despite firm claims and ISM prices data supporting USD earlier. Price sits at the 1.4219 day low after the NY close in thin rollover trade, with RSI(14) near 32. It is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.42466, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 range floor negates the range break
Close below the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4155 post-PCE low flagged in CAD context
Break of the lower-high trendline from 1.4262, or a close above the 1.4247 lower high, ends the intraday downtrend read
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next scheduled driver
21:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY spike rejection · RSI 31 · price 1.42213
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.4262; Asian and London lows broken.
The hot ISM Prices Paid print lifted the pair to a 1.4262 session high in the first hour of NY. That spike drew a rejection, and an orderly lower-high sequence since has broken the 1.4231 London low and Asian range, leaving price at the day's low by the 1.4220 round number. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not extreme, and ATR is under 6 pips into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4220, 1.42184
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 london low breaks the lower-high chain and the NY sell-off trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4220 round number exposes the 1.42184 prior low from the Asia open
Recovery toward the 1.4250 asian high would mark the move as a false break of the range
Friday NFP (12:30 UTC) can materially shift this read; thin Asia session flow until then
20:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off NY high · RSI 28 · price 1.42247
Lower-high sequence from 1.4262; Asian range broken to downside.
The post-ISM spike to the 1.4262 NY high faded into a falling trendline of lower highs. Price slipped through the asian low at 1.4231 to a day low at 1.4222, and RSI(14) sits near 28. Price is idling just above the prior low at 1.4218 in thin after-NY trade.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4242, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 asian low negates the range break
Failure at 1.4218 prior low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Falling trendline and fib 50% near 1.4242 mark the zone where the lower-high read is tested
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from NY session high, stretched · RSI 25 · price 1.42251
Lower highs since 1.4262; London/NY lows at 1.4230 broken.
USD/CAD faded from the 1.4262 session high, set on the post-ISM spike in early NY hours, then carved a lower-high trendline and broke the 1.4230 broken low (London and NY lows) to a 1.4222 session low late in NY. RSI(14) near 25 is stretched, and this pullback came on a session of firm USD data and Fed-BoC divergence headlines.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4247, 1.4262
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4230 broken low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4222 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A retrace to the fib 61.8 at 1.4247 meeting the lower-high trendline tests whether supply still caps rallies
A return above the 1.4262 session high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 15:30 UTC · RSI 34 · price 1.42268
Lower-high chain off the 1.4262 NY high; Asian range low broken late NY.
The NY push to the 1.4262 day high at 15:30 UTC reversed despite firm US claims and ISM prices paid. The lower highs that followed carried price through the 1.4231 asian low to a 1.4222 ny low after London close. Price is now drifting just above that low late in NY hours.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4242, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4231 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 50% fib at 1.4242 and the lower highs trendline breaks the down-chain
Failure to hold the 1.4222 ny low and 1.4218 24h low exposes the 1.4200 round number
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 28 · price 1.42239
Lower-high chain from 1.4262; 1.4230 day lows broken late NY.
After rejection at the 1.4262 NY session high, USDCAD has stepped down in lower highs. It slipped through the 1.4230 day lows that held through Asia, London and NY, with RSI(14) near 28 after London close and through the Fed-speaker window. Price is pressing the 1.4220 psych level, with the 1.4218 spike low from the overnight thin hours just beneath.
Support: 1.4220, 1.42184
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.4230 day lows would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the 1.4246 lower high breaks the descending sequence from the 1.4262 session high
Acceptance below 1.4220 psych and the 1.4218 spike low extends the lower-low chain
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend since the NY session high, momentum still pointing lower · RSI 28 · price 1.42251
Lower highs and lower lows off 1.4262; 1.4230 day floor broken late NY.
Since the 1.4262 day high in early NY, price has made steady lower highs along a falling trendline. It has now broken the 1.4231 broken-lows floor that held through London and NY, trading below the Asian range. The slide coincides with tonight's Fedspeak window despite firm US claims, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 1.4231 broken lows would turn the late-NY range break into a false break
Holding below 1.4231 into the Asia session leaves the 1.4218 rollover low and the 1.4200 round number exposed
A close above the falling trendline and the 38.2% fib near 1.4239 would stall the lower-high sequence; 1.4250 asian high and 1.4262 day high sit above
Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) Fedspeak still in play; Friday NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 24 · price 1.4227
Lower-high chain from 1.4262, now breaking the 24h range floor.
After the NY rejection at the 1.4262 session high, USDCAD has printed a lower-high sequence and is now slipping through the 1.4230 range floor that held from Asia through NY, as Bowman, Williams and Cook speak. RSI(14) sits near 24 and ATR is about 7 pips. The next references below are the 1.4218 rollover low and the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4230 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4218 rollover low exposes the 1.4200 round number
M15 close above the lower-high trendline (~1.4238) breaks the descending sequence from the 1.4262 session high
Williams/Cook remarks now and NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the session high · RSI 35 · price 1.42313
Lower highs since 1.4262, pressing the 1.4230 intraday low.
Price was rejected at the 1.4262 session high during NY hours. Since then it has printed a lower-high sequence under a descending trendline, back to the 1.4230 intraday low, which is now on its fourth test today after London open, NY open and the 17:30 UTC dip. The fade puts price at the floor of the 1.4231–1.4250 Asian range despite the firm USD tone. RSI(14) is near 35 as Fedspeak gets under way after London close.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 intraday low breaks the repeated floor and exposes the 1.4200 round number
Close back above the descending trendline and the 1.4250 Asian high invalidates the lower-high read; 1.4262 session high above
Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) on a December hike could materially shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
1.4230–1.4262 day range, lower highs into the range floor.
USDCAD has held a 1.4230–1.4262 range since Asia. The NY spike to the 1.4262 session high was rejected, and late-NY lower highs along a descending trendline have pressed price back to 1.4235, just above the range floor tested four times today, despite firm USD tone on hawkish Fed repricing.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4218
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4258, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 range floor breaks the day's base and exposes the 1.4218 prior low
Close above the 1.4247 lower high and descending trendline neutralises the late-NY fade, with the London high at 1.4258 next
Fed speakers Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could break the range in thin late-NY trade
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next scheduled range-break risk
18:46 UTC
Range-bound, intraday lower highs since the NY spike · RSI 39 · price 1.42371
1.4230–1.4262 range; NY high rejected, price back near the range floor.
London and NY both pushed above the Asian high at 1.4250 after the firm claims and ISM prices data. Both moves failed, and the NY session high at 1.4262 was rejected back to the 1.4230 range floor, now tested four times today. Price sits under a lower-highs line from the session high, with RSI(14) soft near 39.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4218
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 range floor exposes the 1.4218 prior low from late yesterday
Reclaim of the Asian high at 1.4250 breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.4262 session high
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) within the hour could materially shift this read
Holding below the 50% retrace of the NY drop near 1.4246 keeps the post-rejection fade intact
Intraday range 1.4230–1.4262, failed upside break, mid-range.
Firm US claims and ISM prices lifted the pair through the 5-month high to a 1.4262 session high during NY hours. The break failed, and the fade from the session high returned price to the 1.4230 range floor, which has held four times today. Price now sits mid-range after London close, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 46 and no clean structure in play.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4230 range floor breaks the day's floor and exposes the 1.4200 round number
Close back above the 1.4250 5-month high reopens a test of the 1.4262 session high
18:16 UTC
Sideways, two-way chop · RSI 47 · price 1.42414
Range 1.4230–1.4262; highs rejected, triple low holding.
NY pushed through the 1.4250 5-month high to a 1.4262 session high on the firm claims and ISM prices data, but the move reversed and the pair dropped back to the 1.4230 triple low. Price has since recovered about a third of that NY high-low swing and sits near 1.4241, just above the 1.4237 minor low, with RSI(14) neutral and closes back under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4230
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) within the hour could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.4230 triple low breaks the range floor that held at London open, mid-NY and late NY
An M15 close back above the 1.4262 session high would invalidate the false-break read at the 5-month high
Holding under 1.4250 keeps price in the lower half of the NY high-low swing, with the 1.4237 minor low the first test below
1.4230–1.4262 range since London open; NY break above 1.4250 failed.
USDCAD has chopped inside 1.4230–1.4262 since London open. The NY push through the 1.4250 Asian high to a 1.4262 session high failed and fell back to the 1.4230 range floor, which held for a fourth time; price now sits near 1.4245, about half the NY swing retraced, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and the EMAs flat.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 range floor opens the 1.4200 round number
Acceptance back above the 1.4250 Asian high puts the 1.4262 session high back in play
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift USD hike pricing and this read
17:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since session high · RSI 50 · price 1.42401
24h range 1.4230–1.4262, late-NY drift back to range floor.
The NY push to a session high at 1.4262, just through the London high at 1.4258, failed. Price slid back to test the 1.4230 day low after London close, printing lower highs while the Asian high at 1.4250 caps. This keeps USD/CAD inside the ~1.4250 five-month-high zone despite firm US yields after ISM prices paid; RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4221
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 day low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4221 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.4250 asian high and the lower highs line puts the 1.4258 london high and 1.4262 session high back in play
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Range, sliding to the floor late in NY · RSI 39 · price 1.4231
1.4231–1.4262 day range; lower highs since the 1.4262 rejection.
Supply capped the 1.4262 day high at 15:30 UTC and a run of lower highs followed after London close. The last two bars dropped 18 pips back to the 1.4231 day low, a floor that held at London open and again at 13:45 UTC, as Jefferson takes the stage. RSI(14) is near 39 and price sits below both EMAs, with USD otherwise firm on yields.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 day low breaks the session floor and the Asian range base, exposing the 1.4220 round number
Recovery back above the 1.4250 Asian high negates the lower highs sequence
Bowman 19:00 and Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC Fedspeak could materially shift this read
A fourth test of the day high at 1.4262 would reset the range top
17:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 58 · price 1.42478
Higher low off 1.4231 floor, rejected at 1.4262, pulling back into the 1.4231–1.4262 day range.
Firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing lifted the pair off the 1.4231 triple low, tested at the London open and twice after 13:30 UTC, to a day high at 1.4262 at 15:30 UTC, just above the london high at 1.4258, before a rejection pulled it back. The pullback is holding near 1.4244, the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 58 and ATR(14) near 8 pips.
Support: 1.42442, 1.42311
Resistance: 1.42582, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4244 pullback low reopens the 1.4231 triple low
Close back above the 1.4258 london high and the 1.4262 day high extends the NY rally
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, then Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30) could shift this read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major volatility event
17:03 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows through NY · RSI 56 · price 1.42488
1.4231–1.4262 day range; rejection at session high, NY rising lows intact.
USDCAD has held a 1.4231–1.4262 range over 24h, with the 1.4231 day low defended three times, in Asia, at London open and in early NY. The NY rally, backed by firm US yields, cleared the 1.4258 London high to a 1.4262 session high but met rejection there. After London close, price is consolidating at 1.4249, between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the NY rally fib, with NY rising lows still intact.
Support: 1.42448, 1.42313
Resistance: 1.42582, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 session high breaks the day's range top
Break of NY rising lows and the 1.4245 pullback low reopens the 1.4231 day low
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled range-break risk
NY higher-low chain off 1.4231 day low, rejection at 1.4262.
The NY session rallied off the 1.4231 day low, a floor tagged at both London open and 13:30 UTC, after the ISM dip. Price pushed past the London high at 1.4258 into a 1.4262 session high before rejection, and the pullback low at 1.4245 held between the 50% and 61.8% fib of that NY leg. Price is now pinned around 1.4250 with RSI(14) near 58, as firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid keep USD underpinned.
Support: 1.42448, 1.42311
Resistance: 1.42582, 1.4262
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the london high at 1.4258 puts the 1.4262 session high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4245 pullback low breaks the NY higher-low chain and reopens the 1.4231 day low
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
Thin liquidity after the NY close may keep price inside the 1.4231–1.4262 range
16:31 UTC
Sideways, rotating inside day range · RSI 51 · price 1.42465
1.4231–1.4262 range, failed push above London high.
NY hours pushed through the london high at 1.4258 to a session high of 1.4262, with USD firm on lower claims and hot ISM prices. The 16:15 UTC bar rejected back to 1.4246, the 50% retrace of the NY leg, and price is now back under the asian high at 1.4250. The 1.4231 day low has held three times; RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and price sits on flat EMAs.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 session high negates the false break and extends the day range
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low exposes the 1.4231 day low; a close below it breaks the range floor
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), then Bowman and Williams/Cook (19:00–19:30 UTC), could shift the read this evening
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major volatility event for the pair
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through NY · RSI 62 · price 1.42568
NY breakout above Asian/London highs, HL chain intact.
Firm US claims and a hot ISM prices print kept USD bid. NY session built higher lows off the 1.4231 NY low and pushed through the 1.4250 Asian high and London high to a 1.4262 session high. Price is holding above 1.4250, the 38.2% of the NY swing fib, and the 1.4243 higher low sits near the 61.8%.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4243, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4250 Asian high puts price back inside the prior range
Loss of the 1.4243 higher low breaks the NY HL chain; 1.4231 NY low is the next reference
Close above the 1.4262 session high extends the breakout toward the 1.4300 round number
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read; NFP due tomorrow 12:30 UTC
16:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending in NY · RSI 57 · price 1.42526
London range 1.4231–1.4258 broken higher; higher lows since 13:45 UTC.
Buyers defended the 1.4231 session low twice, at London open and again at 13:45 UTC. After the ISM Prices Paid beat lifted USD, NY cleared the 1.4258 London high and printed a 1.4262 NY high. Price is holding just above the 1.4250 Asian high, which also lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally. RSI(14) is neutral near 57, and ATR is about 8 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4243, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4250 Asian high would turn the range break into a false break.
Losing the 1.4243 fib 61.8 of the NY rally reopens the 1.4231 session low.
Acceptance above the 1.4262 NY high exposes the 1.4300 round number.
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read; US NFP follows Fri 12:30 UTC.
15:46 UTC
Intraday range with upside break attempt · RSI 56 · price 1.42527
1.4231–1.4258 range since London; NY spike to 1.4262 rejected.
The NY session leg off the 1.4231 range floor, held three times today, pushed through the 1.4258 London high after the hot ISM prices-paid print and tagged a 1.4262 session high. A long upper wick pulled price back to 1.4252, just above the 1.4250 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4262
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4262 session high clears the rejection wick and confirms the range break.
A slip back under the 1.4250 round number and the 1.4258 london high turns the spike into a false break back inside the range.
The 1.4238 swing low near the 61.8% of the NY leg fib is the higher-low marker; failure there exposes the 1.4231 range floor.
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), then Bowman and Williams/Cook later this session, could materially shift this read.
15:31 UTC
Sideways, upper half of daily range · RSI 56 · price 1.42512
24h range 1.4231–1.4258, lower highs capping, double low holding.
Mid-NY session, USD/CAD is pressing the 1.4253 range cap again, about 76% back up the drop from the 1.4258 London high to the 1.4231 double low. That low held at London open and again just before ISM. Firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid kept dips bought; RSI(14) is neutral at 56 and the lower-highs line from the London high is being tested.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4253, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4258 London high breaks the day's range and clears the ~1.4250 five-month-high area
Another rejection at the 1.4253 range cap, followed by a slip under the ema20 near 1.4243, returns price to mid-range
A break of the 1.4231 double low invalidates the double bottom read and confirms a lower low
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman, Williams and Cook, could shift this read; NFP is due Friday 12:30 UTC
London cleared the Asian high near 1.4250 and printed a 1.4258 session high, but the break failed. Since then the pair has chopped inside 1.4231–1.4258, with highs capping at 1.4251–1.4253 and two NY dips holding the 1.4231 range floor. Firm US claims data keeps the pair near five-month highs, but there is no directional follow-through, with RSI(14) near 52 and price flat around the EMAs.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4258 session high invalidates the false-break read
Break below the 1.4231 range floor confirms a lower low after the double hold
Loss of the 1.4238 swing low puts the range floor back in play
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman, Williams and Cook, could shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Repeated failure at the 1.4251 asian high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
15:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing after London high · RSI 49 · price 1.42439
Lower highs against a flat 1.4231 floor.
London's push through the Asian range high faltered at the 1.4258 session high near the ~1.4250 five-month high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs into NY hours, even with firm US claims and hawkish ISM prices paid. The 1.4231 range low held at London open and again in the first hour of NY, while RSI(14) sits near 49 and price hugs flat EMAs.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 range low breaks the London/NY floor, with the 1.4200 round number the next reference
A close above the 1.4251 lower highs and the 1.4258 session high would erase the London false break
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could shift this read, and NFP is due Fri 12:30 UTC
14:46 UTC
Range after failed London breakout, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 1.42402
Lower highs from 1.4258 compressing into a flat 1.4231 floor.
London's push through 1.4250 to the 1.4258 london high failed, and every rally since has printed a lower high, including the 14:00 UTC ism spike to 1.4246 that faded on the same bar. The 1.4231 session low has held at the London open and twice in NY. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s and ATR runs near 8 pips.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4218
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4251, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 session low breaks the floor and exposes the 1.4218 rollover low
Close above the 1.4251 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4258 london high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday NFP
1.4231–1.4258 range since London open, lower highs pressing on range low.
The London session high at 1.4258 was rejected. Since then a chain of lower highs (1.4253, 1.4251, 1.4250) has compressed price toward the 1.4231 range low, which held for a second time just before ISM. The hawkish ISM prices-paid beat lifted the pair off that floor, but the bounce stalled at the 1.4246 ISM high and price is back under both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4226
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4250, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4231 range low breaks the London-NY floor and exposes the 1.4226 Asian low
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4250 five-mo high reopens the 1.4258 session high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
1.4231–1.4258 range, lower highs since London peak.
London pushed through the 1.4250 five-month high to a 1.4258 session high but could not hold it. Since then the pair has printed lower highs near 1.4251 and held a 1.4238 swing low twice. Early NY swept the 1.4231 sweep low before the 14:00 UTC ISM prices-paid beat lifted price back to 1.4244, flat at the EMA20/50 cluster, with RSI(14) at 49 and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4251 lower high reopens the 1.4258 session high and the five-month-high break
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low exposes the 1.4231 sweep low again
Fedspeak from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read; NFP Friday 12:30 UTC
14:02 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London · RSI 46 · price 1.42396
1.4231–1.4258 range, lower highs pressing the floor.
London's poke to the 1.4258 session high above the 1.4250 five-month high didn't hold. NY has since printed lower highs, the latest at 1.4251, and the 13:45 bar broke the 1.4238 shelf to retest the 1.4231 session low, while ISM and Waller land on the 14:00 UTC bar.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4226
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 session low exposes the 1.4226 asian low
Close above the 1.4251 lower high breaks the descending sequence; 1.4258 session high is the range top
ISM Mfg (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could materially shift this read
London lifted the pair through the 1.4250 5-month high to a 1.4258 session high, but the break failed and NY has printed lower highs into 1.4250 while the 1.4237 swing low holds. Price sits on the 61.8% fib of the 1.4231 london low to 1.4258 rally, just below both EMAs, and the claims beat produced no lasting push.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could break the range either way
M15 close below the 1.4237 swing low exposes the 1.4231 london low
Close back above the 5-month high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4258 session high
13:31 UTC
Sideways after rejected London push · RSI 44 · price 1.4242
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.4238 floor.
London broke above the Asian range high and failed at a 1.4258 session high near the five-month high. Since then the pair has compressed into lower highs against a 1.4238 range floor, sitting at the 61.8% of the London leg from the 1.4231 London low. The firm US claims print added little; RSI(14) is neutral near 44 and ATR runs about 7 pips.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4238 range floor exposes the 1.4231 London low
M15 close above the lower highs line near 1.4251 reopens the 1.4258 session high
Canada PMI at 13:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the compression
13:16 UTC
Sideways after London false break, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 1.42451
Compressing range 1.4238–1.4253 below London session high.
London pushed above the 1.4250 five-month high to a 1.4258 session high, but the move was rejected. A lower-high sequence has since squeezed price into 1.4238–1.4253, sitting at the 50% of the London leg with RSI(14) near 44. The USD bid that followed firm jobless claims has kept the 1.4238 intraday low intact through early NY.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4253, 1.4258
What it said to watch
Canada manufacturing PMI at 13:30 UTC and US ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could break the range either way
M15 close above the lower-high line and 1.4253 reopens the 1.4258 session high
M15 close below the 1.4238 intraday low exposes the 1.4231 london low at the base of the London leg
London lifted the pair out of the Asian range and briefly through the 1.4250 five-month high to a 1.4258 session high, but the break failed. Price has since compressed between a 1.4238 range floor, tested three times, and a run of lower highs near 1.4252. Firm US jobless claims barely registered, RSI(14) sits flat at 50, and price is pinned to the ema20.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4252, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4238 range floor exposes the 1.4231 london low
Close above the lower highs line near 1.4252 and the 1.4258 session high revives the breakout read
Canada manufacturing PMI at 13:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Flat, sideways after a failed push higher · RSI 49 · price 1.42444
Lower highs compressing above the 1.4238 swing low.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.4250 and printed a session high of 1.4258 at 10:00 UTC, then failed to hold it. Price has since formed a lower high at 1.4253 and dipped to 1.4238 three times, with each test holding as the swing low. It now sits mid-range at the 50% of the London leg, with RSI(14) neutral, as the yield-driven USD bid finds no follow-through above 1.4250.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4253, 1.4258
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4238 swing low opens the Asian low at 1.4231
A close above the lower highs line and the 1.4258 session high would reopen the breakout read
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 13:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4258 compressing against flat 1.4238 base.
London cleared the Asian range top at 1.4250 to a session high of 1.4258, near the five-month top, but met rejection there. Price has since printed lower highs at 1.4253 and 1.4251 above a swing low at 1.4238, holding near highs on the yield-driven USD bid. It sits back at 1.4250 as US jobless claims land.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4253, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4258 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and the five-month top
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low exposes the asian low at 1.4231, below the 61.8% of the London leg
US claims (12:30 UTC), Canada PMI (13:30 UTC), ISM and Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Failed break above Asian range, lower high inside 1.4238–1.4258 chop.
London pushed through the Asian range high to a 1.4258 session high, then dropped back inside, leaving a false break and a lower high at 1.4253. Price is chopping around EMA20 with RSI(14) flat at 50, and buyers have defended the 1.4238 swing low twice. The climb from yesterday's 1.4154 low tracks the broad USD bid on 24-year-high yields and oil.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4253, 1.4258
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), Canada PMI (13:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read early in the NY session
M15 close above the 1.4258 session high negates the false break and clears the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low exposes the 1.4231 london low and the 23.6% fib of the 1.4154–1.4258 rally near 1.4234
Failed break above Asian range, lower high at 1.4253.
London pushed through the 1.4250 Asian high to a 1.4258 session high but could not hold it. A lower high at 1.4253 has pulled price back toward the 1.4238 intraday low, near the 78.6% retrace of the London swing, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) at 45 into the London-NY transition. The 1.4231 London low marks the Asian range floor.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 london low breaks the Asian range floor and the overnight higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4250 asian high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.4258 session high back in play
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Canada PMI at 13:30 and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failed break above Asian high; lower high at 1.4254, back inside Asian range.
London swept the asian low at 1.4231, then broke the 1.4250 asian high to a 1.4258 session high, but the move failed. Price is back inside the Asian range at 1.4243, between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg, after a second push stalled at 1.4254 for a lower high. The pair is holding near the top of yesterday's post-PCE recovery from 1.4155 as long-end yields keep USD supported; RSI(14) is flat near 48.
Support: 1.42388, 1.42311
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.42535, 1.42582
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4258 session high invalidates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 1.4239 swing low exposes the asian low at 1.4231
Reclaiming the 1.4250 asian high and the lower high at 1.4254 restores the breakout structure
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Canada manufacturing PMI at 13:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.4231, capped at 1.4258 session high.
The post-PCE leg from 1.4154 carried through Asia. London first dipped to a 1.4231 london low near the Asian range floor, then broke the Asian high to a 1.4258 session high, where it met rejection. A swing low at 1.4239 kept the higher-low line intact, and price is back at 1.4253, just above the 5-month high near 1.4250, with RSI(14) neutral at 56 into the late London session.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4239, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4258 session high extends the breakout; 1.4300 round number is the next marker
Slip back below the 1.4250 5-month high turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4239 swing low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 1.4231 london low back in play
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, Canada PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling after failed new high · RSI 55 · price 1.42462
HH/HL chain from 1.4154 post-PCE low; false break above Asian high, compressing 1.4239–1.4250.
The post-PCE leg from 1.4154 printed a fresh session high at 1.4258 during London, but the push through the 1.4250 Asian high was rejected within two bars and price is back near 1.4246. In mid-London, price sits between the 1.4239 pullback low and the Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 6.5 pips ahead of US claims and ISM.
Support: 1.4239, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4258 session high negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 1.4239 pullback low exposes the 1.4231 london low, near the 23.6% retracement of the post-PCE leg
Break of 1.4200 psych would end the higher-low sequence
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, Canada Mfg PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London cleared the asian high at 1.4250 to a 1.4258 session high, a fresh five-month peak, but was rejected straight back inside. The pullback low at 1.4239 retraced ~72% of the London leg and held above the 1.4231 london low, keeping higher lows intact. Price is pinned to ema20 with RSI(14) near 54 as the yields-driven USD bid that followed the PCE dip stalls.
Support: 1.4239, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4258 session high negates the false break at the asian high
Loss of the 1.4239 pullback low and the higher lows line exposes the 1.4231 london low
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Uptrend off 1.4155 low, stalling at session high · RSI 52 · price 1.42439
False break above Asian high, back inside 1.4231–1.4250 range on higher-low chain.
London pushed through the asian high at 1.4250, the digest's five-month-high area, to a 1.4258 session high at 09:45 UTC, but the break failed inside two bars. Price is back in the 1.4231–1.4250 range and sitting on the EMA20/50 cluster. The climb off yesterday's post-PCE 1.4155 low still holds a higher low at 1.4239, with softer crude keeping CAD heavy.
Support: 1.42388, 1.42311, 1.42185
Resistance: 1.42496, 1.42582
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4250 asian high negates the false break and puts the 1.4258 session high back in play
Failure below the 1.4231 london low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4219
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, Canada Manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above asian high, back inside 1.4231–1.4250 range.
USDCAD has climbed steadily from the post-PCE 1.4155 low, with firm US yields and softer crude behind the move. London first dipped through the asian low at 1.4231, then broke the asian high to a london high of 1.4258. The 10:15 UTC bar gave all of that breakout back, putting price at 1.4243 on the range floor with RSI(14) cooled to ~53.
Support: 1.4242, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4250 asian high and the 1.4258 london high would cancel the false-break read
Failure at the 1.4242 range floor exposes the 1.4231 asian low; a break there marks the first lower-low since the PCE recovery
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Canada Manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC
ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, prices paid 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through London, Asian range high broken.
Late in the London session, USDCAD cleared the 1.4250 Asian high and five-month high, printing a 1.4258 session high before easing. London's higher lows from the 1.4231 london low remain intact. The move extends the recovery from the post-PCE low at 1.4154, with firm US yields keeping USD bid. RSI(14) is near 62, not stretched.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4242, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4250 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4242 range floor and the rising support line breaks the London higher-low chain toward the 1.4231 london low
M15 close above the 1.4258 session high opens the 1.4300 round number
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, CA PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout from intraday range · RSI 66 · price 1.42568
Higher lows since London open low; range top broken at 09:45 UTC.
USD/CAD cleared the 1.4242–1.4250 range on the 09:45 UTC bar and printed a 24h session high at 1.4258. That extends the post-PCE recovery from 1.4154 as firm yields and softer crude weigh on CAD. Price is holding above the rising higher-low line from the 1.4231 London low, with RSI(14) near 66 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4242, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4250 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4242 range low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.4231 London low
Acceptance above the 1.4258 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in view
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, CA manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Uptrend stalling under 1.4250 · RSI 50 · price 1.42461
Tight range below Asian high, higher lows intact above 1.4231.
USD/CAD carried the post-PCE recovery from 1.4154 into Asia as yields and softer crude weighed on CAD, but the 1.4250 Asian high has rejected three tests. Early London swept to a 1.4231 london low and recovered; price is now compressed in a 1.4242–1.4250 range mid-London, RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.4242, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 Asian high marks a range break into the five-month high area
Close below the 1.4242 range low reopens the 1.4231 london low; failure there exposes the 1.4200 psych level
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) with Waller could break the 1.4242–1.4250 range
CA manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC is a secondary risk for the range
09:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling under session high · RSI 54 · price 1.4246
Tight range 1.4231–1.4250 after London rejection.
The post-PCE dip to 1.4154 fully reversed through NY and Asia hours. London has twice capped at the 1.4250 session high, also the five-month high, with the early dip to the 1.4231 London low bought. Price is now compressing near the session high with RSI(14) neutral at 54, above the 38.2% retracement of the PCE low to high move.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4226, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high breaks the range and leaves the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
Loss of the 1.4231 London low and 1.4226 Asian low turns the range lower, with 1.4200 round number below
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, CA Manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling under 1.4250 · RSI 51 · price 1.42458
Tight range 1.4231–1.4250 since Asia, higher lows into range top.
USD/CAD has been capped at the 1.4250 range top three times since the Asia session. The pair had already recovered all of yesterday's PCE-driven drop to 1.4154 on strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI. London open swept the Asian low at 1.4231 before demand returned, leaving higher lows at 1.4235 and 1.4242, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.42421, 1.42311, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42496
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 range top (five-month high) breaks the Asian range higher
Loss of the 1.4242 higher low and a close below the 1.4231 asian low turns the structure lower, with the 1.4200 round number below
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
CA Manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC is a secondary risk
Tight range 1.4231–1.4250 since Asia after the post-PCE rally.
Recovery from the 1.4154 post-PCE low has stalled into a 1.4231–1.4250 range, with the range top (near the 1.4250 five-month high) capping price three times through Asia and early London. London open dipped to 1.4231, just under the Asian low, then held a higher low at 1.4235 and pushed back to the range top. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.42351, 1.42311, 1.42132
Resistance: 1.42496
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 range top breaks the Asian-London range and the five-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4235 higher low, then the 1.4231 asian low, opens the fib 38.2 of the PCE rally at 1.4213
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and CA Manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC could break the range
ISM Mfg PMI and Waller at 14:00 UTC; a soft prices component could shift this read toward a pullback
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalled in a tight range under 1.4250 · RSI 51 · price 1.42463
Asia-London range 1.4231–1.4250, higher lows since London open.
The rebound from the 1.4154 post-PCE low has flattened into a 1.4231–1.4250 Asia-London range. Firm USD and softer oil keep CAD heavy. London open dipped to the asian low at 1.4231 and recovered, but the session high at 1.4250 has capped three times while a run of london HL prints keeps price in the upper half.
Support: 1.42425, 1.42311, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.42496
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high breaks the triple cap at the five-month high zone
Loss of the london HL line near 1.4242 returns focus to the 1.4231 asian low
Close below the 1.4231 asian low breaks the range, exposing the 1.4220 round number and the 38.2% fib of the PCE-low rally near 1.4213
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg PMI plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.4231–1.4250 since Asia, capped at the highs.
The PCE rally retraced the whole post-PCE dip from 1.4154 through the NY session. Price has ranged 1.4231–1.4250 since Asia. London briefly dipped to the asian low, then stalled again at the 1.4250 asian high, also the five-month high, for a third rejection. RSI(14) is near 45 and ATR is about 6 pips, so price sits mid-range with no expansion.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4250 asian high breaks the range and the five-month high
Failure below the 1.4237 swing low and then the 1.4231 asian low exposes the 1.4220 round number
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A deeper pullback into the PCE rally fib below 1.4220 would weaken the recovery structure
08:16 UTC
Post-PCE uptrend, stalling into range · RSI 51 · price 1.42467
Tight range 1.4231–1.4250 after the rally off the PCE low; repeated tests of the range top.
The rally off yesterday's PCE-miss low at 1.4154 ran on strong US growth data and has flattened into a 1.4231–1.4250 range through Asia. Early London swept the asia/ldn low at 1.4231 and recovered, while the range top has rejected three tests just under the 5-month high at 1.4250. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR is roughly 6 pips.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 5-month high breaks the range and extends the PCE rally fib structure
Failure to hold the 1.4231 asia/ldn low opens the 1.4200 round number, near the 50% of the PCE rally fib (~1.4202)
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4231–1.4250 intact; London swept the low and bounced.
The post-PCE rally from 1.4154 stalled at the 1.4250 asian high, tagged twice in Asia as a small double top. The London open swept the 1.4231 asian low and bounced to a 1.4244 london high. Price now sits mid-range just below EMA20, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR near 5 pips: momentum has cooled, and the range has not broken.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4244, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 asian low breaks the range and puts the 1.4200 round number in view
Close above the 1.4250 asian high clears the double top and the five-month high cited in the CAD digest
1.4244 london high is the first cap on the bounce; rejection there keeps the range-low retest in play
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), CA Manufacturing PMI (13:30) and US ISM Mfg with Waller (14:00) could materially shift this read
Double top at Asian high, London dip holding above 1.4231.
The post-PCE rally from 1.4155 stalled at the 1.4250 Asian high, which capped price twice, and the London open slid to a 1.4231 London low. The bounce has stalled at a 1.4244 London high, with price just under both EMAs and only about 23.6% of the PCE rally fib retraced, RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4227, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4244, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 Asian high voids the double top read and puts the high-of-move area in play
Loss of the 1.4231 London low exposes the fib 23.6 at 1.4227, then the 1.4200 pivot
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada S&P Global Mfg PMI 13:30 UTC is a secondary risk; CAD has been slow to react to domestic data
Asian range 1.4231–1.4250, low swept at London open and reclaimed.
The PCE rally from the 1.4154 miss low ran into a 1.4250 asian high, which was rejected twice. London open selling then dipped to 1.4231, just under the asian low, before the 07:15 bar reclaimed it. Price is now at 1.4240, capped by ema20 near 1.4243, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4231 asian low turns the sweep into a range break toward the 1.42 pivot
Close above the 1.4250 asian high clears the double rejection and the five-month high area
Failure to reclaim ema20 at 1.4243 keeps London trading inside the Asian range
US Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.4250 Asian high, neckline broken, price testing Asian low.
Asia carried the post-PCE rally from 1.4154 up to the 1.4250 Asian high, where a double top formed. The London open rejection broke the 1.4241 dt neckline and the asia trend line, and price now sits on the 1.4231 Asian low with RSI(14) near 41 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4229, 1.4213
Resistance: 1.4241, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 asian low and 1.4229 ny low exits the Asian range and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4213
Reclaim of the 1.4241 dt neckline negates the double top. The 1.4250 asian high remains the session cap
Broken asia trend line turns the Asian higher-low chain into resistance on any retest
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 44 · price 1.42375
Higher lows since PCE dip; Asian range 1.4231–1.4250 capped.
The rally off yesterday's PCE-driven 1.4154 low extended through the Asia session to a 1.4250 Asian high. Three tests of that level were rejected into London open. Price now sits on the 1.4237 intraday low inside the 1.4231–1.4250 Asian range, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
A London close below the 1.4231 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4220 pivot, near the 23.6% fib of the PCE-low rally.
An M15 close above the 1.4250 Asian high invalidates the rejection read.
US Claims at 12:30 UTC, Canada Mfg PMI at 13:30 UTC, and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The PCE rally off yesterday's 1.4154 low ran through NY and Asia on firm USD, with Asian rising lows lifting price into the Asian high at 1.4250, the five-month-high area. Two rejections there in the last 90 minutes have price back below EMA20 at the micro low into London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.42414, 1.4237, 1.42314
Resistance: 1.42496
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 asian high extends the HH chain into fresh five-month highs
Break of the 1.4237 swing low cuts the Asian rising lows; the 1.4231 asian low is next
Failure to hold the 1.4241 micro low at London open confirms the double rejection at 1.4250
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, Canada Mfg PMI 13:30, ISM and Waller 14:00 could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low chain through Asia, compressing under the asian high.
USD/CAD fully reversed the soft-PCE flush to 1.4154 during the NY session, then ground higher through Asia in a higher-low chain. It is now pressing the 1.4250 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 57. The 06:00 GMT dip to 1.4241 held on the rising trendline, and ATR near 4 pips shows a compressed range heading into London open.
Support: 1.42414, 1.4237, 1.42314
Resistance: 1.42494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 asian high extends the higher-high chain into five-month-high territory
Break of the rising trendline and the 06:00 low at 1.4241 exposes the asia hl at 1.4237
Loss of the 1.4231 asian low breaks the Asia higher-low structure; the 38.2% of the post-PCE rally sits near 1.4213
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT, plus Canada Mfg PMI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain inside tight Asian range under 1.4250.
The post-PCE rebound from 1.4154 carried through NY on firm USD and Asia extended it in a tight 1.4231–1.4249 range, printing higher lows at 1.4237 (the prior high) and 1.4241 (swing low). Price is pinned just under the 1.4249 Asian high and 1.4250 five-month-high area into London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is compressed at ~3.4 pips.
Support: 1.42414, 1.4237, 1.42314
Resistance: 1.42494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4249 Asian high clears the 1.4250 five-month-high area
Loss of the 1.4241 swing low and the Asian trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the prior high at 1.4237
Break of the 1.4231 Asian low shifts the read to a range break lower within the PCE rebound
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Price has extended the recovery from the post-PCE low at 1.4154 through the Asia session. Higher lows are holding on the rising trendline, and price is pressing the asia high at 1.4249, just under the 1.4250 five-month-high area flagged in the CAD digest. Bar ranges have compressed to an ATR of about 3 pips ahead of London open, and RSI(14) sits at 59 with no stretch.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4249 asia high and the 1.4250 five-month high extends the HH/HL chain
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.4237 swing low turns this into a rotation inside the Asian range toward the 1.4231 asia low
A slide toward the 1.4200 pivot brings the 38.2% of the pce rally fib (1.4213) into play
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.4154, compressing under 1.4250.
Late Asia session, price is pinned just under the 1.4250 session high after a 95-pip recovery from the post-PCE 1.4154 low. The 04:00 UTC dip low at 1.4237 held above the 1.4231 Asian low, keeping the rising support line intact, with ATR compressed to about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4250 session high breaks the Asian range top and the five-month-high area
Loss of 1.4237 dip low, then 1.4231 asian low, breaks the rising support line and the higher-low chain
38.2% fib of the 1.4154–1.4249 rally sits near the 1.4200 pivot, the next reference if the Asian range gives way
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Canada mfg PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain through Asia, pressing the session high.
The post-PCE dip to 1.4154 was rejected during NY hours on firm US growth data, and the pair has stair-stepped higher through the Asia session with a higher-low chain off the rising trendline. Price sits at the session high just under the 1.4250 5-month high late in Asia, RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched. The 1.4237 swing low is the nearest support.
Support: 1.4237, 1.42314, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4250 clears the 5-month high and extends the Asia grind into London open
Break below the 1.4237 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain; the 1.4231 asian low is next
Loss of the 1.42 pivot would unwind most of the post-PCE recovery
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 1.4231 Asian low, pressing 1.4250.
The post-PCE rally from 1.4154 carried through NY as US growth beats outweighed the inflation miss. Late Asia has extended the HH/HL chain to the 1.4249 asia high, just under the 1.4250 round number. The 1.4237 swing low and the 1.4231 asian low sit on the Asia uptrend line, with RSI(14) at 66 and ATR near 3 pips into London open.
Support: 1.4237, 1.42314
Resistance: 1.42494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4249 asia high clears the 1.4250 five-month-high area
Break of the Asia uptrend line and the 1.4237 swing low flattens the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.4231 asian low puts the post-PCE rally fib retracement in play
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Canada PMI 13:30 UTC, ISM Manufacturing and Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 67 · price 1.42476
Higher lows through Asia; prior NY high 1.4237 cleared, price pressing the Asia session high.
The post-PCE dip to 1.4154 was fully retraced on firm US growth data, and the Asia session extended the move on rising lows. Price cleared yesterday's NY high, held the 1.4237 swing low on the 04:00 UTC dip, and is now capped at the 1.4248 Asia high, just under the 1.4250 round number, with London open about 2h away.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 round number extends the breakout beyond the Asia high
Loss of the 1.4237 swing low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 1.4231 asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4231 asian low reverts price into yesterday's NY range
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC), Canada Mfg PMI (13:30 UTC) and ISM (14:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher through late Asia · RSI 66 · price 1.42465
Higher lows through Asia, pressing session high.
Late Asia session is grinding along a rising trendline from the 1.4231 Asian low. The dip to the 1.4237 swing low was absorbed, and price now sits at the 1.4248 session high, just under the 1.4250 round number. The move extends the PCE rally off yesterday's 1.4154 low as USD held firm on the GDP, Chicago PMI and ADP beats.
Support: 1.4237, 1.42314, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42477, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 round number clears the session high and the five-month-high area flagged in the news
Loss of the 1.4237 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the Asian higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4231 asian low
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; the 1.42 pivot is the deeper reference if the PCE rally unwinds
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, late Asia grind higher · RSI 66 · price 1.42474
Higher lows through Asia, NY high cleared, testing 1.4250.
USD/CAD has fully reversed the PCE-driven dip to 1.4154 on the US growth beats. Late in the Asia session it pushed through the NY high near 1.4237 and printed a session high at 1.4247, just under the 1.4250 5-month high. The rising trendline off the Asian lows is intact, and RSI(14) near 66 shows momentum without stretch.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 5-month high extends the breakout; a stall there leaves the session high as a cap
Loss of the 1.4237 ny high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.4231 asia low and the rising trendline next
Break below the 1.4200 pivot would erase most of the NY-session recovery (fib 38.2% near 1.4212)
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read after London open
Asian higher lows inside a tight 1.4231–1.4247 range below session high.
Asia extended the PCE rally off the 1.4154 spike low. It set a session high at the 1.4247 Asian high, just under the 1.4250 round number, and buyers stepped in at the 1.4237 pullback low, keeping the Asian higher lows trendline intact. Price is above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR(14) around 3.5 pips; the firm USD tone after the GDP and Chicago PMI beats is behind the grind.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4250
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4250 round number around London open breaks the Asian range high
Failure to hold the 1.4231 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the Asian higher lows trendline
A deeper fade toward the 1.4200 psych pivot brings the 38.2% of the PCE rally (~1.4212) into view
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM plus Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Asia HH/HL chain, shallow pullback from session high.
The post-PCE rally from the 1.4154 low has extended through Asia to a 1.4247 session high, just shy of the 1.4250 psych and five-month-high area, on a firm USD and soft oil. Price is easing to 1.4240, slipping under EMA20. The 1.4231 Asian low anchors the session's higher-low chain.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 psych clears the five-month-high area and extends the uptrend
Loss of the 1.4231 asian low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.4200 pivot
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher highs off post-PCE low; Asia stalling under 1.4250.
The post-PCE rally off 1.4154 extended in the Asia session, clearing the NY prior high at 1.4237 and printing a session high at 1.4247 just shy of the 1.4250 psych area. Price is now flat in tight bars, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 3 pips. The firm USD tone after the GDP and Chicago PMI beats is keeping CAD heavy.
Support: 1.42366, 1.42314, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4237 prior high puts the Asian low at 1.4231 back in play
Loss of the 1.4220 pivot would retrace into the post-PCE rally fib zone
M15 close above 1.4250 psych extends the higher-high chain beyond the session high
US claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 68 · price 1.42462
Higher highs and higher lows since the PCE low; Asia broke above the NY high.
USD/CAD has fully reversed the PCE leg lower to 1.4154 and pushed through the NY high at 1.4237 during the Asia session, building rising lows into a 1.4247 Asia high just under the 1.4250 round number. Price is above both EMAs and RSI(14) sits near 68, firm but not stretched. ATR is about 3.3 pips in thin late-Asia trade.
Support: 1.42366, 1.42314, 1.42129
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 round number puts price into new five-month-high territory
Break of the asia rising lows trendline and loss of the 1.4237 ny high puts the breakout in question
Move below the 1.4231 asia low reopens the 1.4213 swing low
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, Canada Mfg PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the PCE low, Asian breakout stalling under 1.4250.
USD/CAD has fully reversed the PCE-driven dip to 1.4154. Firm US growth data carried it through the NY session, and late-Asia rising lows broke the 1.4238 prior high to set a session high at 1.4246. Price is now compressing just under the 1.4250 five-month high, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.42384, 1.42314, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.42464, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4250 five-month high leaves the breakout stalled; a close above opens new ground
A close back below the 1.4238 prior high undoes the Asian breakout
Failure to hold the 1.4231 asian low breaks the rising-lows sequence
Loss of the 1.4220 round number exposes the 38.2% PCE rally fib near 1.4211
US jobless claims at 12:30, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.4154 post-PCE low; Asia broke above the prior NY high.
The soft core PCE spike to 1.4154 was fully reversed through NY as firm US growth data and yields reasserted. Asia broke above the prior high at 1.4237 to a 1.4246 session high, stalling just under the 1.4250 5-month high with ATR compressed near 3.4 pips. The Asia low at 1.4231 is the nearest higher low on the rising trendline.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42456, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 5-month high puts price in new ground
Return below the 1.4237 prior high marks the Asia breakout as a false break, with the 1.4231 asia low next
Loss of the rising trendline from the PCE low exposes the 1.4200 round number and the 50% fib
London open could test the tight Asia range; US ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 71 · price 1.4245
Higher highs and higher lows from the PCE low, Asia above the NY high.
Asia session pushed above the 1.4237 NY high to a 1.4246 session high, just under the 1.4250 5-month high, with RSI(14) near 71. The pair has fully recovered the PCE dip from 1.4154 as firm US growth data offset the inflation miss. The rising trendline from that low and the 1.4231 Asian low sit below.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 5-month high opens new ground; repeated rejection there marks it as range top
Break below the 1.4231 Asian low and the rising trendline undercuts the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4200 round number
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late Asia · RSI 68 · price 1.42446
HH/HL chain since post-PCE low; Asia broke NY high.
The post-PCE rally from 1.4154 has carried through the Asia session. Price cleared the NY high at 1.4237 and printed a session high at 1.4246, just under the 1.4250 5-month high, as the firm USD and soft CAD tone reasserted. RSI(14) is near 68, ATR is about 3.6 pips, and the micro HH/HL chain is intact above the 1.4231 swing low.
Support: 1.42366, 1.42314, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.42456, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4250 5-month high puts price in new ground; rejection there leaves a session high cap at 1.4246
A drop back below the NY high at 1.4237 would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4231 swing low breaks the Asia HL chain and exposes the 1.4200 round number and the post-PCE rally fib zone
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read later today
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into Asia · RSI 67 · price 1.42435
Higher lows through Asia session, pressing session high below 1.4250.
The post-PCE rally from 1.4154 extended through Asia, with the session high at 1.4246 just below the 1.4250 5-month high. The prior NY high at 1.4237 and the asian low at 1.4231 are holding the higher-low sequence. RSI(14) near 67 is warm but not stretched, and moves remain small at about 4 pips ATR.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4231, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Clean break of the 1.4250 5-month high opens new ground; repeated rejection there shifts the read toward a range
M15 close below the 1.4231 asian low breaks the Asia higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4200 round number puts the 38.2–50% retrace of the post-PCE rally (1.4211–1.4200) in play
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, Asia extending to fresh highs · RSI 66 · price 1.42414
Higher highs and higher lows off the post-PCE low; NY high taken out in Asia.
USDCAD has climbed about 87 pips off the 1.4154 post-PCE low. GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats outweighed the core PCE miss, and the pair cleared the 1.42 pivot during NY. Asia has pushed through the ny high at 1.4237 to a session high at 1.4242, with RSI(14) near 66 and the 5-month high at 1.4250 just overhead.
Support: 1.42366, 1.42314, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42421, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Hold of the ny high at 1.4237 as a retest keeps the breakout intact
Break below the 1.4231 higher low on the Asia trendline would flatten the HH/HL chain
M15 close above the 1.4250 5-month high opens fresh territory, while rejection there leaves the session high capping
Back through the 1.42 pivot would bring the pce-low fib 38.2% near 1.4209 into play
US jobless claims 12:30, Canada PMI 13:30 and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, Asia grinding higher on low ATR · RSI 63 · price 1.42387
Higher highs off the post-PCE low; Asia holding a higher low above the NY range.
The dip to 1.4154 on the core PCE miss was fully retraced as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD, and NY extended through the 1.4200 breakout. The Asia session has pushed to a fresh session high at 1.4240 above a 1.4231 swing low, with ATR compressed near 3 pips and RSI(14) at 63, not stretched.
Support: 1.42314, 1.42258, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42402, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4231 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low line and opens the 1.4226 asian low
Acceptance above the 1.4240 session high puts the 1.4250 psych level, the reported five-month high, in play
Loss of the 1.4200 breakout would put the post-PCE recovery under review, with the fib 38.2% near 1.4207
London open in about 4h typically expands the Asian range; ISM, jobless claims and Waller later in the day could materially shift this read
HH/HL climb off the PCE low, now a tight Asia consolidation under the session high.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked USDCAD to 1.4154, but the dip reversed into a steady HH/HL climb through the 1.42 pivot as GDP and ADP beats kept the USD firm. Asia session is coiling in a tight 1.4231–1.4238 band with a marginal new session high at 1.4238. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR is under 4 pips, so momentum is flat but not stretched.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4226, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4250
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4238 session high opens the path to the 1.4250 5-mth high
Failure to hold the 1.4231 asian low, then the 1.4226 range low, breaks the consolidation floor
A move back below the 1.42 pivot sits near the 38.2% retrace of the post-PCE rally (~1.4206) and would undercut the HH/HL chain
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read later today
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 66 · price 1.42377
V-reversal from post-PCE low; tight Asian consolidation under session high.
USDCAD reversed the core PCE miss flush to 1.4154 and climbed about 84 pips through NY hours as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. Price is holding well above the 1.4200 pivot. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.4231–1.4238 band with the session high being pressed, RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) only about 3 pips.
Support: 1.42314, 1.42291, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42384, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4238 session high opens the path to the 1.4250 5mth high
Loss of the 1.4231 asian low and 1.4229 range floor ends the consolidation read
Return below the 1.4200 pivot / 38.2% of the PCE rally fib at ~1.4206 would mark a deeper retracement
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 62 · price 1.42373
Post-PCE V-reversal with higher lows, now a tight box under the window high.
The PCE-miss dip to 1.4154 was fully reversed during NY hours on the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats, carrying the pair through the 1.4200 pivot to a 1.4238 window high. Early Asia session is compressing in a 9-pip box between the 1.4229 range low and the window high, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42378, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4238 window high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of the 1.4229 range low exposes the 1.4218 rollover low and the 1.4200 pivot
A slide back toward the 38.2% fib of the post-PCE rally near 1.4206 would mark a deeper retracement
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.42329
Post-PCE V-reversal, higher highs through NY; tight Asian range under the session high.
The soft core PCE print briefly took the pair through the London range low to 1.4154. Growth beats then drove a NY rally through the 1.4200 round number. Early Asia is consolidating in a roughly 12-pip band between the 1.4229 NY lows and the 1.4238 session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and the pullback low at 1.4213 the last higher-low pivot.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4229 NY lows breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.4213 pullback low
Acceptance above the 1.4238 session high puts the 1.4250 5-month high in play
Loss of the 1.4200 round number would put the PCE rally fib 38.2% near 1.4206 in focus
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), Canada Mfg PMI (13:30 UTC) and ISM Mfg with Waller (14:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Tight consolidation under session high after post-PCE rally.
Growth beats absorbed the soft PCE print. The 12:30 UTC dip to 1.4154 was fully reversed, and the 1.4200 pivot was cleared during NY hours. Since late NY, price has compressed into a 9-pip range between the 1.4229 range low and the 1.4238 session high, with ATR down near 3 pips in early Asia.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4238 session high exposes the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of the 1.4229 range low opens the 1.4218 spike low, then the 1.4200 pivot near the 38.2% of the pce rally fib
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 66 · price 1.42369
Post-NY tight range 1.4229–1.4237, early Asia testing top.
NY rallied about 80 pips off the 1.4154 PCE low as growth beats absorbed the soft core PCE miss, reclaiming the 1.4200 round number and grinding to 1.4237. The early Asia session is now pressing that range top after late-NY consolidation held the 1.4229 range low, with only a thin rollover low wick to 1.4218; ATR has compressed to roughly 3 pips.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 range top puts the 1.4250 5-month high in view
Failure to hold the 1.4229 range low exposes the 1.4218 rollover low and the 1.4200 round number, near the 38.2% fib of the PCE-low rally
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, Canada Manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could reshape this range