21:04 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into resistance · RSI 79 · price 1.42361
Double bottom at 1.3732/1.3759 completed; HH/HL chain since 8 Sep.
USDCAD has rallied about 500 pips off the 1.3732 aug low and the 1.3759 retest, completing a double bottom through 1.3940 in mid-September. Price now sits above a turning-higher EMA(50) and is respecting a rising September trendline. An eight-session advance, driven by Fed-BoC policy divergence and softer oil, has brought price back to the 1.4248 june high. The core PCE miss produced only a shallow dip to the 1.4154 pce low before buyers stepped back in, though RSI near 79 marks a genuinely stretched daily reading.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4003, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4300
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4248 june high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number and breaks the June–July range ceiling
- Rejection at 1.4248 would set up a potential double top against the June high with RSI overbought
- Loss of the 1.4154 pce low and the September trendline would be the first structural sign of a CAD squeeze
- Aug-Sep rally fib 38.2% near 1.4044 sits just above the 1.4003 july low, a deeper pullback zone
- US NFP Fri Oct 2 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada Ivey PMI Tue Oct 6 is secondary risk