21:06 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into prior range top · RSI 76 · price 1.41803
Higher highs and higher lows since the Sep 8 base; testing the June-July 1.4150-1.4248 range.
USDCAD completed a double bottom off the 1.3732 (Aug 21) and 1.3759 base low (Sep 8), and has since posted higher closes on most sessions, lifting price roughly 450 pips back into the June-July 1.4150-1.4248 range. The widening US-Canada rate spread has kept the move intact, and the soft US core PCE only produced a narrow session just under the 1.4201 sep high. Price sits well above a rising ema20 near 1.4029, and RSI in the mid-70s marks a genuinely stretched daily reading.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4029, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4248 june high would clear the summer range top and extend the higher-high chain
- Repeated rejection at the 1.4201 sep high, with RSI rolling over from overbought, would point to a lower-high inside the summer range
- Daily close below the 1.4128 swing low breaks the rally trendline and exposes the ema20 near 1.4029
- A close back under the fib 50% at 1.3966 would undermine the double bottom read, with the 1.3759 base low the structural floor
- US ISM Manufacturing and Waller on Thu, then NFP later this week, could materially shift this read