USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 74 · price 1.42345
Rising lows from weekly open; 1.4200 cap broken on Wednesday's NY session.
USD/CAD has built rising lows from the 1.4135 weekly open, and the 1.42 pivot capped three attempts on Monday and Tuesday. The soft US core PCE print spiked the pair to a 1.4154 pce low during the first hour of NY, but the move was fully absorbed as growth beats (GDP, ADP, Chicago PMI) lifted the dollar. The PCE impulse then broke 1.4200 and ran to a 1.4237 week high, leaving price about 23 pips above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 74, overbought after an almost unbroken advance.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.42 pivot keeps the breakout read. An H1 close back below it would mark a false break of the week's cap.
A pullback toward EMA(20) and the 38.2% of the PCE impulse near 1.4205 would test the breakout.
Week high 1.4237 and the 5-month high at 1.4250 are the areas to watch for rejection or break.
A break of the rising lows trendline from the weekly open would undercut the week's uptrend structure.
Canada Manufacturing PMI (13:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) on Oct 1 could materially shift this read.
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 76 · price 1.42333
Higher lows since Monday open; 1.4200 range top broken after a sweep to 1.4154.
The week opened at 1.4135 and built higher lows, but the 1.4200 prior high capped Tuesday's London push and again during Wednesday's Asia session. The soft PCE print dragged the pair to a 1.4154 pce low around the NY open, before beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI drove a breakout through 1.4200 and a 1.4237 session high late in NY hours. RSI(14) near 76 is overbought, and price is stretched well above EMA(20), with the post-PCE impulse still unretraced.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4175, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.42366, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 1.4200 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A 38.2% retrace of the post-PCE impulse near 1.4205 lines up with the prior high; the 50% level sits near 1.4196
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range low reopens the 1.4154 pce low
A close above the 1.4237 session high brings the 1.4250 5-month high into view
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC Thu) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 72 · price 1.42315
Higher lows since week open; Tue–Wed range top cleared.
USDCAD has built higher lows from Monday's 1.4135 open. It then spent Tuesday and Wednesday capped between a 1.4175 range floor and Tuesday's 1.4201 prior high. The soft US core PCE print dragged the pair to a 1.4154 PCE low early in the NY session, but beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI reversed it. Seven straight bullish hours cleared the prior high and printed a 1.4237 session high. RSI(14) near 72 is overbought, and price sits roughly 25 pips above EMA(20), so the move is stretched with the 5-month high at 1.4250 just overhead.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4175, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.42366, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4201 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and put the pair back inside the 1.4175–1.4200 range
Acceptance above the 1.4237 session high brings the 1.4250 5-month high into play
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range floor exposes the 1.4154 PCE low and the rising trendline from the week open
Canada Manufacturing PMI (13:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) tomorrow could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday open; 1.4175–1.4200 range broken to the upside.
USD/CAD opened the week near 1.4135 and built rising lows through Monday before stalling at the 1.4200 pivot in Tuesday's London session, leaving a 1.4175 range floor. The soft US core PCE print knocked the pair to the 1.4154 pce low around the NY open. Firm GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data then flipped the move, and the NY session drove a range break through 1.4200 to a 1.4237 session high, with RSI(14) near 73 in overbought territory and price well clear of EMA(20).
Support: 1.4200, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.4200 pivot, near the 38.2% of the pce rally fib, would turn the range break into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4237 session high brings the 1.4250 5-month high into play
A loss of the 1.4175 range floor and the rising lows line toward the 1.4154 pce low would unwind this week's structure
Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then US claims, ISM Manufacturing and Canada Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, could materially shift this read
1.4175–1.4200 range broken higher after sweep to 1.4154.
USD/CAD was capped three times at the 1.4200 prior high across Tuesday and early Wednesday, holding a 1.4175 range low, before the soft core PCE print swept price to the 1.4154 PCE low at the NY open. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove a steady ~75-pip NY-session rally through the range top to a week high near 1.4229, leaving price well clear of EMA(20) with RSI(14) overbought near 71. The 38.2% retrace of that PCE-low rally lands on the 1.4200 prior high, which is now the first level to watch for a retest.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4175, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.42294, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4200 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4175 range low reopens the path back to the 1.4154 PCE low
Five-month high at 1.4250 sits above the week high as the next resistance to test
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC Thursday, after Canada Manufacturing PMI at 13:30 UTC
Higher lows since weekly open; 1.4175–1.4200 range broken to upside.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Sunday's weekly open near 1.4135, with Tuesday and Wednesday capped just under the 1.4200 prior high above a 1.4175 range floor. The soft US core PCE print produced a false break to a 1.4154 pce low, but ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, and the PCE rally carried price through 1.4200 in the first hours of NY to a 1.4224 week high. RSI(14) sits near 66 with price above both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.4200, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4200 prior high would turn the range break into a failed breakout
50–61.8% of the PCE rally sits at 1.4189–1.4181; a break of the 1.4175 range floor and the higher lows line puts the 1.4154 pce low back in play
1.4250 round number, flagged as the five-month high, is the next reference above the week high
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Uptrend, breaking out of two-day range · RSI 64 · price 1.42125
Higher lows since weekly open; 1.4175–1.4200 range broken to the upside.
Bid since Sunday's weekly open at 1.4135. The range top at 1.4200 capped three tests on Tuesday and early Wednesday, and 1.4175 held as the range low. The soft core PCE print drove a NY-session sweep to the 1.4154 pce low, which kept the higher-low sequence intact. ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then reversed it into an hourly close above 1.4200, with the session high at 1.4213 and RSI(14) near 64, rising but short of overbought.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4213, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4200 range top turns the breakout into a false break and reinstates the 1.4175–1.4200 range
Failure to hold the 1.4154 pce low breaks the higher-lows line from the weekly open
Holding above the 1.4213 session high leaves the ~1.4250 5-month high as the next reference, a 50% retrace of the week impulse sits at the 1.4175 range low
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday open; 1.4175–1.4200 range top cleared.
USDCAD has held a sequence of higher lows since Monday's open near 1.4135. The 1.4200 prior cap rejected price during London on Tuesday and in Asia on Wednesday, holding a 1.4175–1.4200 range. The soft US core PCE print sent the pair to a 1.4154 PCE low early in the NY session, but that false break below the range low reversed on the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats, and price has since cleared the prior cap to a 1.4213 session high, with RSI(14) near 65 and price above EMA(20) around 1.4194.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4213, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4200 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break and return price to the 1.4175–1.4200 range
Loss of the 1.4175 range low, near the 50% level of the weekly rally fib, exposes the higher-low trendline around the 1.4154 PCE low
Acceptance above the 1.4213 session high opens the path to the 1.4250 psych level, which the market context flags as a five-month high
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight and Thursday's US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 1.4200 · RSI 55 · price 1.41975
Higher lows from weekly open, range-capped at 1.4200 since Tuesday.
USD/CAD climbed from the 1.4135 weekly open to a 1.4201 week high in Tuesday's London session. It has since compressed between that 1.4200 cap and a range floor near 1.4175, which lines up with the 38.2% level of the week-advance fib. The soft US core PCE print sent price to a 1.4155 pce low in the first hour of NY, a false break of the range floor that fully reversed, and price is now pressing the week high again with RSI(14) in the mid-50s above EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.4175, 1.41544, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high breaks a cap tested three times since Tuesday
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range floor reopens the 1.4155 pce low
A break of the rising trendline from the weekly open, near 1.4155, would end the higher-low sequence
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) and tomorrow's ISM Mfg (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Range after Monday-Tuesday advance · RSI 48 · price 1.41867
1.4175-1.4200 range, pce false break.
USDCAD climbed from the weekly open near 1.4135 on Monday to a 1.4200 test during London hours Tuesday. The range top has since capped three attempts and left a 1.4175-1.4200 range, with the floor lining up with the 38.2% retrace of that advance. Today's soft US core PCE print (3.0% vs 3.3%) pushed price through the range floor into the NY session, printing a 1.4155 pce low just under the 61.8% level, before a recovery back above EMA(20) turned the break into a false break with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4200 range top opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of the 1.4175 range floor with a close below the 1.4155 pce low exposes the 1.4135 weekly open
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari later today could shift October hike pricing and this read
US ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC and Canada manufacturing PMI Thu 13:30 UTC are the next scheduled risks
Triple top at 1.4200, neckline near 1.4175 under test.
USD/CAD climbed from the 1.4135 week open through Monday and into Tuesday's London session. Since then, three tests of 1.4200 have been rejected: Tuesday in London, Tuesday during NY hours and Wednesday's Asian session, carving a triple top with the neckline near 1.4175, which also sits at the 38.2% fib of the week's rally. The soft US core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked price to 1.4154, the pce low, before it snapped back to the neckline, now below EMA(20) near 1.4184 with RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4154, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4184, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4175 neckline confirms the triple top and exposes the 1.4154 pce low
Acceptance below the 1.4154 pce low brings the 1.4135 week open into view
Reclaiming ema20 near 1.4184, then an H1 close above the 1.4200 triple top, invalidates the reversal read
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, Fed speakers tonight (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) and Thursday's ISM could materially shift this read
Monday–Tuesday higher-low advance gave way to a 1.4175–1.4200 range.
USDCAD climbed about 65 pips from the 1.4135 weekly open to 1.4201, with London sessions on Monday and Tuesday driving the move on a wider US-Canada rate gap and softer oil. Since then, three tests of the 1.4200 range top have been rejected, the latest pullbacks coming alongside Williams' 'no rush' remarks and a softer USD. The range floor at 1.4175 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week's advance, while price sits just under ema20 at 1.4186 and RSI(14) has eased to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4166, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4186, 1.4200
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) land within the hour and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.4200 range top breaks the three-test cap and resumes the week's advance
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range floor exposes the 1.4166 tuesday low (50% fib), then the 1.4135 weekly open
Holding back above ema20 at 1.4186 keeps price in the upper half of the range
11:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling into range · RSI 41 · price 1.41772
1.4175–1.4200 range since Tuesday after Monday's impulse.
The week's move came Monday, when USDCAD climbed from the 1.4135 weekly open to 1.4201 by Tuesday's London session on a wider US-Canada rate gap and softer oil. Since then the range top at 1.4200 has capped three attempts: Tuesday London, Tuesday NY (reversed on Williams' 'no rush' remarks) and Wednesday Asia. The range floor at 1.4175, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Monday–Tuesday leg, has held each time. Price is back at that floor, below the ema20 near 1.4185, with RSI(14) near 41 and tracing the triple top shape.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4175 range floor confirms the triple top and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4168, then Monday's swing low at 1.4155
Close back above the ema20 near 1.4185 returns price to the middle of the range
H1 close above the 1.4200 range top invalidates the triple top read and brings the 5-month high near 1.4250 into view
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.3% MoM) today could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.4155 swing low would put the 1.4135 weekly open back in play
Monday–Tuesday impulse now in a 1.4175–1.4201 range.
The week's advance ran from the 1.4135 weekly open to a 1.4201 week high in Tuesday's London session, on a wider US-Canada rate gap and softer oil. Since then it has been a range: rejection near 1.4200 in Tuesday's NY session and again in Wednesday's Asian range, with Williams' 'no rush' remarks driving the Tuesday NY drop. The 1.4175 range floor, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the weekly impulse and the higher-low trendline, has held three times. Price is now back below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4168, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4175 range floor also breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 50% fib at 1.4168, then the weekly open at 1.4135
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high ends the range read and opens the 1.4250 5-month high
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
1.4175–1.4200 range after Mon–Tue higher highs; flat top.
USD/CAD climbed from the weekly open at 1.4135 to a week high of 1.4201 in Tuesday's London session as Fed-BoC divergence widened. Since then 1.4200 has capped three tests: Tuesday London, Tuesday NY, where Williams' 'no urgency' remark knocked the pair back, and today's Asian session. Price is now below EMA(20) at the range floor near 1.4175, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the week's advance, and RSI(14) has eased to the low 40s.
Support: 1.41747, 1.41656, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4175 range floor confirms the triple top and exposes the Tuesday low at 1.4166, near the 50% retracement
Loss of 1.4166 turns the week's structure lower, with the weekly open at 1.4135 the next reference
H1 close above the 1.4200 cap breaks the flat top and brings the 5-month high near 1.4250 into view
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.4188 returns price to the upper half of the range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in a range at 1.4200 · RSI 53 · price 1.41844
Higher lows from Monday's open, now a flat 25-pip box beneath 1.4200.
USDCAD has gained about 65 pips from Monday's weekly open at 1.4135. Monday's NY session and Tuesday's London morning carried the leg up as Fed-hike pricing and softer crude weighed on CAD. Since Tuesday, the 1.4200 range top has capped three tests in London, NY and Asia, the NY drop coming on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. Dips have held the 1.4175 range low, which is the 38.2% level of the week's move fib. Price now sits just under ema20 near 1.4188, with RSI(14) back around 53 after running overbought into Tuesday.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4160, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4200 range top opens the path toward the 5-month high near 1.4250
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4160, then the weekly open at 1.4135
Repeated closes below ema20 while under 1.4200 would point to the range rolling over rather than consolidating
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling into a flat range · RSI 44 · price 1.41855
Higher-lows advance from the weekly open, now boxed 1.4175–1.4200.
USD/CAD climbed steadily from the 1.4135 weekly open through Monday's London and NY sessions on Fed-hike pricing and softer crude, then printed 1.4201 in Tuesday's London session. The range top at 1.4200 has since rejected three attempts: Tuesday London, Tuesday NY after Williams' 'no rush' remark, and Wednesday Asia. Each dip found the same range floor near 1.4175, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the weekly impulse fib. Price now sits just under the ema20 with RSI(14) near 44, and the Monday higher-lows line has been lost as the advance flattens.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4168, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the pair is stretched after eight straight up days
H1 close above the 1.4200 range top would break the triple rejection and bring the 1.4250 5-month high into view
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range floor exposes the 50% fib at 1.4168, then the 1.4135 weekly open
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.4190 would put price back into the upper half of the range
Higher lows since week open; 1.4175–1.4200 range under a triple cap.
USDCAD climbed steadily from the 1.4135 week open through Monday's London and NY sessions, with Fed-hike pricing and softer crude driving the move. Tuesday's London push printed 1.4201, and two later attempts in NY and Asia stalled at the same 1.4200 triple cap. The NY-afternoon drop on Williams' 'no rush' remarks found the 1.4175 swing low, which also sits on the 38.2% fib of the week impulse. The Asia rejection has since pushed price back under EMA(20) near 1.4190 and just below the week-open trendline, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4160, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4175 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.4160
Failure to regain EMA(20) at 1.4190 confirms the week-open trendline break
H1 close above the 1.4200 triple cap opens the 1.4250 5-month high
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
A move back to the 1.4135 week open would erase the week's gains
Higher lows since Monday, 1.4175–1.4201 range under week high.
USDCAD has climbed steadily from Monday's 1.4135 weekly open on Fed-hike pricing and softer oil. Tuesday's London push set a 1.4201 week high, and price was rejected twice there, the second time in NY hours on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. Both dips held the 1.4175 range floor, which sits near the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse. Asia has pressed back to 1.4200 with price holding above the EMA20, and RSI(14) near 58 is well off overbought.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4175, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high breaks the range and opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Failure of the 1.4175 range floor breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the weekly open at 1.4135
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4192 would mark a third rejection at the week high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may distort price action near 1.4200
USDCAD has built steady higher lows since Sunday's 1.4135 weekly open, extending its eight-day run on widening US-Canada yield spreads and softer crude. Price stalled at the 1.4200 week high in both Tuesday's London and NY sessions, with the second rejection coming on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. Dips held Tuesday lows near 1.4175, the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Tue impulse, and Asia has returned price to the highs above EMA(20) at 1.4191, while RSI(14) near 60 prints lower readings on each test of the top.
Support: 1.4191, 1.4175, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high clears the double rejection and opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Break of Tuesday lows at 1.4175 and the higher-lows trendline would signal the Mon-Tue impulse unwinding toward the 1.4135 weekly open
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; quarter-end flows around the London fix add noise
Pullbacks holding EMA(20) near 1.4191 keep the higher-lows sequence intact
Higher lows since Monday open, flat cap at 1.4200.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Monday's 1.4135 open, extending its seven-session run on Fed-BoC divergence, with pullbacks holding the rising higher-low trendline and EMA(20). Tuesday's week high at 1.4201 was set in London and retested in NY at 1.4199. RSI(14) peaked lower on the retest (~65 vs ~77), a bearish divergence, and the retest faded on Williams' no-rush remarks. Both dips stopped at the tuesday lows near 1.4175, and Asia has compressed just above EMA(20) around 1.4190, near the top of the Thursday-Tuesday impulse.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4175, 1.4148
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high clears the two-test cap and opens the 5-month high near 1.4250
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.4175 tuesday lows would confirm a double top, exposing the 38.2% of the Thursday-Tuesday impulse at 1.4161 and the monday lows at 1.4148
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.3% MoM) later today could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the weekly open; Tuesday range 1.4175–1.4200.
USDCAD has climbed from the 1.4135 weekly open on a steady run of higher lows. USD strength came from widening US-Canada yield spreads. The week high at 1.4201 has capped two attempts on Tuesday, first in London and again into NY hours after Williams' 'no rush' comment, while the Tuesday low near 1.4175 held twice at the 38.2% retracement of the week's move. Price sits back above EMA(20) at the range top in quiet Asia trade, with RSI(14) near 59, not stretched on this timeframe.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4160, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
US core PCE and ADP from 12:15–12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4200 cap breaks the double rejection and opens the 5-month high near 1.4250
H1 close below the Tuesday low at 1.4175 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4160
Loss of 1.4160 puts the weekly open at 1.4135 back in focus
Higher lows since weekly open, twin cap at 1.4200.
USDCAD has built higher lows since Monday's 1.4135 weekly open, with most of the gains made in Asia and London hours as the Fed-BoC yield gap widened. Tuesday's 1.4201 high was rejected twice, the second time in NY hours on Williams' no-rush remarks. Both pullbacks held the 1.4175 Tuesday low, the 38.2% retracement of the week's leg. Price is back just above the ema20 near 1.4189, with RSI(14) around 58 and cooling from Tuesday's highs.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4175, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 tuesday high clears the twin cap and opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Break of the 1.4175 tuesday low and the higher-low trendline would complete a double top, with the 1.4135 weekly open next
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.4189 would signal the pullback cycle is deepening
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Higher lows since weekly open; tight 1.4175–1.4201 range under the week high.
USDCAD has ground higher from the 1.4135 weekly open on a steady sequence of higher lows, extending a seven-session run as the US-Canada yield gap widened. Tuesday printed a week high at 1.4201 during London and was rejected again near 1.4200 in the NY session. The second drop followed Williams' no-rush remarks, and both pullbacks found twin lows at 1.4175, which also sits on the 38.2% fib of the week's advance. Price now sits just above the flattening ema20 with RSI(14) mid-50s, a compression below the week high rather than an overbought extension.
Support: 1.4188, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high breaks the two-rejection cap and puts the 1.4250 5-month high in view
Failure to hold the 1.4175 twin lows and the higher-low trendline turns the pair into a double-top read, with the 1.4154 prior high next
US ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC) and core PCE (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Month/quarter-end rebalancing Wed after a ~2% USD monthly rally could distort the range