Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday range 1.4237-1.4265 under 1.4293 spike.
Higher lows are stacked since Wednesday: 1.4154, then Friday's NFP low at 1.4201, which was bought back despite the 29K miss, then Monday's 1.4237. The week high at 1.4293 printed late in the Asia session Monday and was rejected. London and NY sold the pair back to the Monday low twice as the USD faded on the mixed ISM services data. That low sits near the 38.2% retrace of the Wednesday-Monday advance. Price is back above EMA(20), now around 1.4256, with RSI(14) flat near 54, and the range top at 1.4262-1.4265 has capped four hourly attempts.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4265 range top opens a retest of the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4237 monday low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.4201 nfp low and the higher-low line
Ivey PMI (Tue 14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman Tuesday could break the Monday range; FOMC Minutes Wed is the larger risk
Higher lows intact; Monday range 1.4237–1.4265 after high rejection.
The rally from Wednesday's 1.4154 low built higher lows through Friday's post-NFP dip at the 1.4201 nfp low and printed a 1.4293 monday high in the Asia session, the highest since April 2025, before fading through the London open as USD lost steam on mixed US services data. The monday low at 1.4237 has held three times, close to the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Monday rally and in line with the higher lows trendline. Price is now back above the 1.4248 weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4255, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and the range top at 1.4265 capping each push since London.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4237 monday low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 1.4201 nfp low
Hourly acceptance above the 1.4265 range top reopens the 1.4293 monday high and 1.4300 psych
Loss of the 1.4248 weekly open, which sits with EMA(50), would shift the range toward its lower half
Ivey PMI and Fed's Williams/Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; 1.4237–1.4265 range after Monday rejection.
Monday's push in the Asian range to the 1.4293 week high, the highest since April 2025 on soft oil, met rejection. The London session unwound it to the 1.4237 monday low, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement of Friday's NFP rally and held again during NY hours. Since then price has compressed between that low and a 1.4265 range top, sitting just above EMA(20) near 1.4256 and the weekly open, with RSI(14) flat near 48. The higher lows from Wednesday (1.4154), Friday's nfp low (1.4201) and Monday (1.4237) keep the H1 uptrend structure intact.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4237 monday low breaks the higher lows sequence and opens Friday's nfp low at 1.4201
Acceptance above the 1.4265 range top puts the 1.4293 week high and 1.4300 round number back in play
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4249 alongside a slip under EMA(20) would shift the range lower
Canada Ivey PMI (Tue 14:00 UTC) and Fed Williams/Bowman (Tue) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday spike rejected, pullback held near 61.8%.
H1 has printed higher lows all window: 1.4154 Wednesday, the 1.4201 nfp low Friday, then the 1.4237 monday low. Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high was rejected, and London plus the post-ISM NY swing retraced twice to 1.4237, near the 61.8% of the Friday–Monday leg, as USD lost steam on mixed services data and CAD outperformed. Price is now coiling just above EMA(20) near 1.4255 and the weekly open at 1.4249, under a 1.4262–1.4265 intraday cap that has turned back three Monday attempts, with RSI(14) flat in the high 40s.
Support: 1.42485, 1.42372, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.42932, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4265 intraday cap reopens the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4237 monday low breaks the double low and exposes the rising trendline near 1.4230, then the 1.4201 nfp low
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4249 puts price back below EMA(20) and stalls the uptrend read
Fed's Williams and Bowman plus Canada Ivey PMI on Tuesday, then FOMC Minutes Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact since Wednesday; rejection from 1.4293 week high, lower highs near 1.4265.
The rally from Wednesday's 1.4154 low has built higher lows through Friday's post-NFP dip to the 1.4201 nfp low and on to Monday's Asia-session spike to 1.4293, the week high and highest since April 2025. A rejection there sent price down through London hours to the 1.4237 monday low, close to the 38.2% fib of the rally. The ISM-hour dip held above that level as CAD outperformed on the mixed US services print. Price now sits flat just under EMA(20) near 1.4257 with RSI(14) back at mid-range, and an intraday cap near 1.4265 has held three attempts since.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4265 intraday cap reopens the 1.4293 week high and 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4237 monday low exposes the higher-lows line near 1.4230 and then the 1.4201 nfp low
Fed's Williams/Bowman and Canada Ivey PMI Tue 14:00 UTC, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from week high · RSI 50 · price 1.42516
Higher lows since Wed; pullback held 61.8% of NFP-to-high leg.
USD/CAD's higher-low sequence remains intact from Wednesday's 1.4154 PCE low through Friday's 1.4201 NFP low. The dollar shrugged off the 29K payrolls miss and printed a week high at 1.4293 in Asia on Monday. London unwound that leg to the monday low at 1.4237, a near-exact 61.8% retracement, and the bounce has stalled at the 1.4261 prior high, just above ema20 at 1.4259; price sits back near the 1.4248 weekly open with RSI(14) flat around 50 ahead of ISM Services.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4261, 1.4293
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55): a hot print revives the path toward the 1.4293 week high, a soft one pressures the higher lows
H1 close below the 1.4237 monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4201 nfp low
H1 close back above the 1.4261 prior high and ema20 reopens the 1.4293 week high
Price holding the 1.4248 weekly open keeps the move a retest of Friday's late-NY breakout zone
USD/CAD has printed higher lows all week, from the PCE-driven dip to 1.4154 on Wednesday to the NFP low at 1.4201 on Friday, with softer oil keeping CAD heavy. Monday's Asia-session push to a 1.4293 week high was rejected through the London open. The pullback held the 1.4237 Monday low near the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4154–1.4293 leg and has since reclaimed the weekly open. Price now sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 51, and the 1.4261 prior high, the Thursday/Friday highs, is the first cap.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4293, 1.4350
What it said to watch
ISM Services 14:00 UTC today, with USD overbought into the print, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4237 monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4224
Loss of the 1.4201 nfp low would mark the first lower-low of the week
Reclaim of the 1.4261 prior high and EMA(20) puts the 1.4293 week high back in play, with the 1.4350 barrier cited above
Higher lows have defined the week. The core PCE dip to 1.4154 on Wednesday and the NFP flush to the 1.4201 nfp low on Friday were both absorbed, and price rebuilt along a rising trendline now near 1.4222. Monday's Asia session pushed through last week's 1.4262 prior high to a 1.4293 monday high as WTI slid, but London reversed the whole move back below the 1.4249 weekly open to a 1.4237 session low. Price now sits under EMA(20), on EMA(50) and near the 38.2% retracement of the weekly advance, with RSI(14) back to 46 from the mid-70s.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4222, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4262, 1.4293
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read during NY hours
An H1 close below the 1.4222 trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4201 nfp low and the 61.8% of the weekly advance near 1.4207
A reclaim of the 1.4249 weekly open, then the 1.4262 prior high, would neutralise the false break and reopen the 1.4293 monday high
Failure to hold the 1.4237 session low keeps the Monday rejection in control
Higher lows from 1.4154; Monday push above 1.4262 failed back to the weekly open.
USD/CAD has built higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4154 trough, with Friday's post-NFP dip to the nfp low at 1.4201 bought. Monday's Asia session then extended to a monday high at 1.4293 on haven USD demand and softer oil. The London session unwound that leg in three bars, taking price back below the 1.4262 prior high and EMA(20) near 1.4257. Price now sits at the weekly open of 1.4249, with the ema50 near 1.4243 and the 50% retracement of the NFP-to-Monday move just below, while RSI(14) has slipped from the 60s to 48.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4221, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4262, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 61.8% fib at 1.4237 exposes the prior low at 1.4221, also the cited support zone
Break of the nfp low at 1.4201 would end the higher-lows sequence from 1.4154
Recovery above the prior high at 1.4262 would frame Monday's drop as a pullback, with the monday high at 1.4293 next
Holding below the weekly open and EMA(20) keeps the Monday breakout read as a false break
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; Canada Ivey PMI follows Tue 14:00 UTC
08:04 UTC
Uptrend, pullback after fresh high · RSI 52 · price 1.42603
Higher highs and higher lows; breakout above 1.4262 now being retested.
USDCAD has carved a run of rising lows, from Wednesday's PCE dip to 1.4154 up to Friday's NFP low at 1.4201. Haven USD demand and softer oil carried the grind. Monday's Asia-session push cleared the 1.4261-62 prior high and reached 1.4293, but the move faded into the London open. Price is now retesting the prior high, sitting on EMA(20) and near the 38.2% retrace of the NFP-to-Monday leg, with RSI(14) cooled to around 52.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4249, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4350
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4261 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.4249 weekly open, near the 50% fib
Loss of the rising lows line and the 1.4201 nfp low would break this week's higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4293 monday high reopens the path toward the 1.4350 next barrier
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), preceded by S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after Asia breakout · RSI 57 · price 1.42679
Higher lows from 1.4154; break above 1.4262 now retesting.
Dips have been bought in the NY session all week. Wednesday's soft core PCE low at 1.4154 and Friday's NFP-miss low at 1.4201 printed higher lows, and the USD haven bid on French fiscal and Yemen headlines carried the pair through the 1.4260-62 cap during Monday's Asia session to 1.4293. Price has since eased into the London open and is sitting on the breakout level, which aligns with EMA(20) near 1.4260. RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s from the Asia spike.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4248, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4260 breakout level, and then the 1.4248 weekly open, would turn Monday's move into a false break
Clearance of the 1.4293 Monday high and the 1.4300 round number extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the higher lows trendline and the 1.4201 NFP low would break this week's uptrend structure
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift the USD haven bid and this read
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, fresh high after breakout · RSI 64 · price 1.42786
Higher lows from 1.4154 and 1.4201; 1.4262 double cap cleared in Monday Asia.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows all week, at 1.4154 on Wednesday's PCE dip and 1.4201 on Friday's NFP miss, with haven USD demand absorbing both drops. In Monday's Asia session the pair cleared the 1.4262 prior high, which had capped Thursday and Friday, and reached a 1.4293 session high. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) near 1.4261, which now overlaps the breakout level, and RSI(14) has eased to about 63 from the spike.
Support: 1.4262, 1.42485, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42932, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.4262 prior high (fib 38.2% near 1.4258) would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4249 weekly open exposes the 1.4201 nfp low
A sustained break of the 1.4293 session high and the 1.4300 round number extends the higher-lows sequence
The higher lows trendline from Wednesday's PCE low runs near 1.4219; a break would end the week's structure
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout to new week high · RSI 68 · price 1.42838
Higher lows since Wednesday's PCE dip; Monday's Asia session broke the 1.4262 prior high.
USD/CAD has carved higher lows since Wednesday's PCE dip to 1.4154. Friday's NFP low at 1.4201 during NY hours was bought back to close near 1.4256. Monday's Asia session broke the 1.4262 prior high on Yemen-driven USD safe-haven demand, printing an Asia high of 1.4293 just below the 1.4300 round number, with price above EMA(20) (~1.4263) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 68, short of overbought.
Support: 1.4262, 1.42485, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 1.4262 prior high, which sits with EMA(20), would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4249 weekly open puts the higher lows trendline and the 1.4201 NFP low back in focus
A close above the 1.4293 Asia high and the 1.4300 round number extends the breakout
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; a firm print could revive Fed hike bets, while a miss could unwind the USD bid
04:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended after Asia breakout · RSI 74 · price 1.42907
Higher lows since Wed; prior high 1.4261 cleared.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4154 post-PCE low. Friday's NFP miss produced only a spike to the 1.4201 nfp low, which was bought back through NY hours as USD dip-buying overrode the soft data. Monday's Asia session held the 1.4246 monday low near the weekly open, then cleared Thursday and Friday's 1.4261 prior high to a 1.4291 session high, with softer crude adding to CAD weakness. Price sits well above EMA(20), and RSI(14) near 74 is in overbought territory.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4246, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4291, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4261 prior high would turn Monday's breakout into a false break
The higher-lows trendline from 1.4154 sits near 1.4265; losing it and the 1.4246 monday low breaks the sequence and exposes the nfp low at 1.4201, near the 61.8% fib
1.4291 session high and the 1.4300 round number are the area to watch for rejection or extension
A fresh price high on a lower RSI(14) high would flag bearish divergence from overbought
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; Canada's labour report Friday is the larger CAD risk
Higher lows since the post-PCE low; Asia break above week high.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows all week, from the 1.4154 post-PCE low on Wednesday to the 1.4201 NFP low on Friday. Each dip was bought as USD demand overrode the 29K payrolls miss and softer crude weighed on CAD. Monday's Asia session opened near the 1.4249 weekly open and pushed through Thursday's 1.4262 prior high to a 1.4288 session high in a single bar, leaving RSI(14) overbought and price well clear of EMA(20), with the 1.4300 round number just overhead.
Support: 1.4262, 1.4249, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4288, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4262 prior high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4249 weekly open and the higher-low trendline would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 1.4201 nfp low
Acceptance above the 1.4288 session high brings the 1.4300 round number into play
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Ivey PMI Tue 14:00 UTC is a secondary risk for CAD
02:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing multi-month high · RSI 67 · price 1.42642
Higher lows since Wednesday; 1.4201–1.4262 range top under test.
USD/CAD has built higher lows from Wednesday's PCE-driven 1.4155 dip to Friday's 1.4201 NFP low. That NFP low held between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday leg, and the drop was bought back to 1.4261 into Friday's NY close despite the payroll miss, with CAD heavy on soft crude. After a small weekend gap down, the Asia session has lifted price from the Monday low of 1.4246 to a retest of the 1.4262 prior high, the level that capped Thursday and Friday. Price sits above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.4262, 1.4246, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 closes holding above the 1.4262 prior high would mark a range break and open the round number at 1.4300
A drop back below the 1.4246 Monday low returns price to the Thursday–Friday consolidation
Loss of the 1.4201 NFP low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the sequence of higher lows
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Canada September LFS on Friday is the key CAD-side risk this week
01:05 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 61 · price 1.42594
Higher lows since Wed; equal highs capping at 1.4262.
USD/CAD has built higher lows since Wednesday's core PCE dip to the 1.4154 pce low. The NY-session rally that day carried into Thursday's 1.4262 prior high. Friday's NFP miss briefly broke the London low to 1.4201, the nfp low, but that false break was reclaimed into the close as CAD weakness outweighed soft USD. Monday's Asia session has lifted from the 1.4249 weekly open back to the 1.4262 cap, with price above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.42485, 1.42014, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 prior high clears the equal-high cap and opens the 1.4300 round number
Slip back below the 1.4249 weekly open puts the nfp low at 1.4201 back in focus
Loss of the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the higher-lows sequence. It would also give up the 50–61.8% retracement of the Wed–Thu impulse.
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC is a CAD-specific risk to the structure
00:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing a flat top · RSI 58 · price 1.42534
Higher lows since Wednesday under a 1.4261-1.4262 double cap.
The pair has carved higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4154 wed low, set on the US core PCE miss. Friday's NFP miss drove a dip to the 1.4201 nfp low in the first hour of NY, but it was fully reversed into a 1.4261 close-of-week high, matching Thursday's 1.4262 week high and pointing to dollar support beyond the soft data. Monday's Asia open gapped slightly lower to the 1.4248 weekly open and has since held above EMA(20) near 1.4244, with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4262 week high breaks the flat top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4201 nfp low ends the higher-low sequence and brings the 1.4154 wed low back into view
Slippage below the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4244-1.4248 would mark a third failure at the cap
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read, with a beat rebuilding Fed hike odds
Canada LFS on Friday and crude direction remain the CAD-specific risks to the uptrend