Lower high under 1.4293, break below Monday low into Friday's floor.
USD/CAD faded Monday's Asia-session spike to 1.4293 and printed a lower high at 1.4285 into Tuesday's London open. It then broke the 1.4249 weekly open and the 1.4237 Monday low through the London-NY transition, taking out the 1.4221 support flagged in the digest, as USD eased back under DXY 102.00 on cooler yields. The slide to a 1.4206 session low leaves price below the ema20 at 1.4230 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 28. That puts the pair just above the 1.4201 Friday low set after the soft US payrolls.
Support: 1.42062, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42295, 1.42372, 1.42485
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4201 friday low extends the lower-low sequence and clears the floor of this window
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4230 and the 1.4237 monday low, which aligns with the 38.2% of the Tuesday drop fib, would point to a false break
Lower highs trendline from 1.4293 caps rebounds; a close back above the 1.4249 weekly open negates the breakdown read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD test
Holding the 1.4206 session low through Asia keeps the stall above Friday's low intact
Lower high at 1.4285 then break of Mon-Tue range floor.
The 1.4293 week high printed in Monday's Asia session was capped again at 1.4285 on Tuesday. From late London through the NY session the pair broke the 1.4237 neckline of that double top and the 1.4221 broken supp level as DXY slipped back under 102.00 on lower yields. Price now sits about 15 pips under EMA(20) near 1.4232, pressing the 1.4205 tuesday low just above Friday's 1.4201 nfp low, with RSI(14) oversold near 26 and the lower highs trendline intact.
Support: 1.42046, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4237, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4201 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 1.4200 handle
Recovery above 1.4221 broken supp and EMA(20) around 1.4232 would mark the range break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4237 neckline negates the double top read and puts the 1.4293 week high back in view
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold within broader range · RSI 28 · price 1.42076
Lower high under week high; Monday low broken, testing range floor.
Monday's Asia push printed the 1.4293 week high. Tuesday's London high at 1.4285 was a lower high, and the pair then slid from the London-NY transition through the 1.4237 Monday low and EMA(20) as the dollar faded below DXY 102.00 on cooler yields. The Tuesday selloff has stalled near the 1.4206 session low with RSI(14) around 28, just above Friday's post-payrolls nfp low at 1.4201, the floor of the four-day range.
Support: 1.42062, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42372, 1.42485, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the four-day range floor; the window shows no structure below
Recovery above the 1.4237 monday low and EMA(20), then the 1.4249 weekly open, would negate the double top read
A break of the lower highs line toward the 1.4293 week high would restore the range read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD test
USDCAD set a lower high at 1.4285 around London open Tuesday, under Monday's 1.4293 week high. It then broke through the weekly open and the 1.4238 Monday low from late London into NY as USD faded on softer yields and oil. Price sits at 1.4210, just above the 1.4206 session low and Friday's 1.4201 NFP low, with EMA(20) now overhead near the Monday low and RSI(14) around 30.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4249, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4238 monday low and EMA(20) would neutralise the double top break
A close below the 1.4201 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence beneath Friday's range
Reclaiming the 1.4249 weekly open reopens the lower-highs line toward the 1.4293 week high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD test
19:03 UTC
Turning down, lower high then lower low · RSI 27 · price 1.42075
Double top neckline at 1.4237 broken, lower-highs sequence intact.
A double top formed at the 1.4293 week high, set in Monday's Asia session, and Tuesday's 1.4285 lower high at London open. Price then broke the 1.4237 monday low late in London and accelerated through the NY session as DXY slipped under 102.00 on fading Fed-hike pricing. The pair now sits below the weekly open at 1.4249 and both EMAs, pressing the 1.4201 friday low left by the NFP spike, with RSI(14) near 27 and oversold; the 38.2% fib of the drop from the week high sits near 1.4240, just above the broken Monday low.
Support: 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4249, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4237 monday low would undo the range break and the double top read
Failure to hold the 1.4201 friday low extends the lower-low sequence to fresh window lows, with no further structure below
Rebounds meet the weekly open at 1.4249 and the lower highs line; only a move through the 1.4293 week high revives the prior uptrend
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD pricing; Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the CAD-side risk
18:03 UTC
Downtrend developing, lower high in place · RSI 29 · price 1.42106
Double top 1.4293/1.4285 with neckline 1.4237 broken; testing week low.
USD/CAD printed its 1.4293 week high early Monday. Tuesday's London push stalled lower at 1.4285, a tue high that completes a lower-highs double top. The NY session then dropped about 75 pips through Monday's 1.4237 neckline and the 1.4221 support as DXY slipped back under 102.00. Price now sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 29, pressing the 1.4209 week low just above Friday's 1.4201 nfp low.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4201 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence, with little structure beneath per the CAD digest
Recovery back above the 1.4249 weekly open neutralises the double top read
Break of the lower-highs trendline from the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4285 tue high would undercut the downtrend structure
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Canada September LFS Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side test
Lower high at 1.4285 under the 1.4293 week high, Monday low broken.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high failed, and Tuesday's London-open retest stalled at 1.4285, leaving lower highs. The slide began late in the London session and extended into NY hours as the dollar eased with oil and yields, overriding the Ivey PMI miss. Price has cut through the Monday low at 1.4237 and the weekly open at 1.4249. It now sits just above the 1.4213 day low, near the 78.6% retracement of the rally from last Friday's NFP low at 1.4201. Price is below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) is near 33.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4249, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.4213 day low exposes the 1.4201 nfp low, which is the base of this week's rally
Recovery back above the Monday low at 1.4237 and the weekly open at 1.4249 would mark the break as a false break
A push through the lower highs trendline and the 1.4293 week high would negate the double top read
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD pricing and this read
Lower highs at 1.4293/1.4285, Monday low broken, fresh week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session spike to the week high at 1.4293. Tuesday's London-open push stalled at 1.4285, and selling through the London-NY transition broke the Monday low at 1.4237 to set a new week low at 1.4213. The slide came as USD faded with DXY back below 102.00 and Canada's trade surplus beat. Price now sits under EMA(20) near 1.4251 with RSI(14) near 32, and Friday's NFP low at 1.4201 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4249, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the Monday low at 1.4237 would turn the break into a false break
Close below the NFP low at 1.4201 extends the lower-low sequence through the 1.4200 handle
Reclaim of the weekly open at 1.4249 and EMA(20), near the 50% retrace of the week-high decline, would neutralise the double top read
Lower highs line from the week high caps above 1.4280; a break above it undercuts the downtrend read
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Short-term down, lower high off 1.4293 week high · RSI 36 · price 1.42279
Lower high at 1.4285 Tuesday; Monday range low 1.4237 broken in NY hours.
USD/CAD printed the 1.4293 week high in early Monday trade, then stalled at a lower high of 1.4285 at Tuesday's London open. The slide through the London-NY transition and NY session, alongside a softer USD and a firm Canadian trade surplus, took out the week open at 1.4249 and the Monday low at 1.4237 to a 1.4225 day low. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 36, having retraced roughly 71% of the rally from Friday's nfp low at 1.4201.
Support: 1.42246, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42372, 1.42485, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4225 day low exposes the 1.4201 nfp low and the 0.786 level of the nfp-high fib
Recovery back above the 1.4237 monday low and 1.4249 week open would turn today's range break into a false break
Break of the lower-high trendline and a close above the 1.4293 week high invalidates the lower-high read
Bowman (today) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift USD pricing
Canada September LFS (Fri 12:30 UTC) is the next major CAD event
Lower high Tuesday under 1.4293, range 1.4230–1.4293.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 18m high at 1.4293 was followed by a London-open push on Tuesday that stalled at 1.4285, a lower high. The pair then shed roughly 45 pips into the London-NY transition as US yields eased and Canada's C$4.2B trade surplus beat, briefly breaking the monday low and setting a tuesday low at 1.4230, just under the 61.8% retracement of the nfp low–18m high leg. Price now sits around the weekly open at 1.4249, below both the ema20 (1.4259) and EMA(50) (1.4254), with RSI(14) at 42 and the higher lows since Friday still intact.
Support: 1.42372, 1.42299, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42485, 1.42588, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4230 tuesday low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 1.4201 nfp low
Reclaim of the ema20 and weekly open, 1.4249–1.4259, would put price back in the upper half of the range
Break above the lower highs line and the 1.4293 18m high opens 1.4350
Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC today; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4237–1.4293 range since Monday; lower high at 1.4285, retesting week low.
Monday's Asia session ran to a 1.4293 week high before supply capped it, and price has since rotated inside a 1.4237–1.4293 range, with today's London-open push rejected at 1.4285 for a lower high. A ~45-pip slide into the London-NY transition, extended as the C$4.19B Canadian trade surplus beat landed, has taken price below the weekly open, EMA(20) and EMA(50) and back onto the 1.4237 week low, which also marks the 50% retracement of the Wed-Mon advance. RSI(14) near 39 is the softest reading since Monday's dip, and the rising trendline from Wednesday's low converges with the 61.8% fib around 1.4223.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4223, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4259, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4237 week low marks a lower low and exposes the 61.8% fib and rising trendline near 1.4223, then the 1.4201 NFP low
Recovery above the weekly open at 1.4249 and EMA(20) near 1.4259 restores the range read; a close above the 1.4293 week high breaks the lower-highs line
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC, f/c 65.2) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read, with FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
12:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling below the 1.4293 week high · RSI 48 · price 1.42513
Lower high at 1.4285 inside a 1.4237–1.4293 range; higher lows from Friday's NFP low still intact.
Monday's Asia-session spike printed the 1.4293 week high, the 18-month top. London then unwound it to the 1.4237 Monday low, which held on two tests near the 61.8% retracement of the NFP-low fib. Tuesday's London push stalled at 1.4285 for a lower high, and the 11:00 UTC bar dropped back below the EMA(20) near 1.4262 to the 1.4249 weekly open, just above the 1.4243 today low. That sits on the rising higher-lows line from Friday's 1.4201 NFP low as the USD eases off its 18-month high, while CAD stays soft on falling oil.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4243, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4243 today low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.4237 monday low and the 61.8% NFP-low fib
Failure at 1.4237 would break the higher-low sequence from Friday's NFP low and turn the range read lower
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.4262 and the 1.4285 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4293 week high
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday NFP low, capped below week high.
USDCAD has carved higher lows since Friday's NFP-miss dip to 1.4201, with Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high driven by CAD-specific oil weakness. The pullback through London and NY Monday held at the 1.4237 monday low, close to the 61.8% of the post-NFP leg, and price has since reclaimed the 1.4249 weekly open and holds above EMA(20) near 1.4267. Today's London high at 1.4285 has capped the advance so far, a lower high under the week high, with RSI(14) near 59 rather than stretched.
Support: 1.4267, 1.4249, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 week high and 1.4300 round number would end the consolidation below the highs
Failure to hold the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4237 monday low would break the sequence of higher lows
A slip back under the 1.4249 weekly open would put price back inside Monday's pullback range
Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) today could shift the read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the main event risk for USD this week
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low; lower high at 1.4285 under 1.4293.
USDCAD has climbed from Friday's nfp low at 1.4201 to a week high of 1.4293 in Monday's Asia session. The move was driven by softer crude weighing on CAD rather than a dollar bid after the weak payrolls. Monday's London pullback held the monday low at 1.4237, right on the 61.8% fib of that impulse, and price has since stayed above the ema20. Tuesday's London open push met rejection at 1.4285, a lower high under the week high, with RSI(14) holding mid-50s and ATR compressing to around 9 pips as price coils near 1.4270.
Support: 1.4264, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number breaks the lower-highs line and extends the uptrend
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.4264 exposes the higher-lows trendline around 1.4245 and the monday low at 1.4237
A break below the 1.4237 monday low and the 61.8% fib shifts the read toward a deeper retrace into the 1.4201 nfp low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Bowman (14:45 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) into the NY session could test the tuesday high or the ema20
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the main event risk for the range below 1.4293
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low; Tuesday lower high capped under 1.4293.
Friday's NFP miss briefly dragged the pair to the 1.4201 nfp low, but record UST yields and soft oil kept the dollar bid against CAD, and the dip was fully reclaimed into the NY session. Monday's Asia push set the 1.4293 week high, then the pullback found demand twice at the 1.4237 monday low, right at the 61.8% retracement of the NFP-to-high leg, and the double bottom resolved back above 1.4262. Price now holds just above the ema20 at 1.4263 with RSI(14) near 57, after the London open probe to the 1.4285 tuesday high met rejection and left a lower high under the week high.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 week high and 1.4300 round number would break the lower-high cap and extend the uptrend
Sustained trade back below the ema20 at 1.4263 returns price to Monday's 1.4237–1.4262 range
Failure to hold the 1.4237 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and rising support from the nfp low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Bowman (14:45 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) today; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday; consolidation 1.4237–1.4293 with a lower high today.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows at 1.4154, 1.4201 and 1.4237 since Wednesday. Falling oil and record-cycle US yields kept CAD heavy and carried the pair to the 1.4293 Monday high in the Asia session. Monday's London and NY dips both held the 1.4237 Monday low, near the 38.2% of the Wednesday-to-Monday leg, and Asia buying lifted price back above EMA(20) and the 1.4249 weekly open. The London open push then stalled at a 1.4285 session high, a lower high under Monday's peak, with RSI(14) near 57 and price consolidating in the upper half of the week's range.
Support: 1.4262, 1.42485, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42849, 1.42932, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 Monday high and the 1.4300 round number would mark a range break and trend extension
Failure to hold the 1.4237 Monday low breaks the higher lows trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Monday leg
H1 closes back below EMA(20) and the 1.4249 weekly open would shift the read toward the range mid
Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift the read during NY hours
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, recovering Monday's drop · RSI 65 · price 1.42793
Monday's Asia-session push to the 1.4293 week high was sold through London to 1.4237. A second test during NY hours, after the ISM services miss, held there and formed a double low just under the 1.4249 weekly open. Since then H1 has printed a series of higher lows into Tuesday's Asia session, holding above ema20 near 1.4265 and retracing more than 61.8% of the Monday drop fib with RSI(14) near 65, as sliding crude keeps CAD heavy and elevated US yields support the dollar.
Support: 1.4265, 1.42485, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42932, 1.4300, 1.4350
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 week high and 1.4300 round number opens the path toward the 1.4350 barrier
A break of the higher-lows trendline and ema20 near 1.4265 puts the 1.4249 weekly open back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4237 double low invalidates the recovery structure
Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low sequence from 1.4154; pullback base at 1.4237 under the 1.4293 week high.
Monday's Asia session pushed price to a 1.4293 week high on soft crude and firm US yields. London then faded it to a 1.4237 week low, about the 38.2% retrace of the Sep 30–Oct 5 leg, and NY retested that low and held, forming a double bottom. Price has since climbed back above the weekly open and the ema20 to 1.4270 on Tuesday's Asian range, with RSI(14) back near 62 and the higher-lows trendline from the Sep 30 low unbroken.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4248, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number would open the 1.4350 area cited in the digest
Failure to hold the 1.4237 week low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the double bottom
Slipping back below the ema20 and the weekly open would point to a range between 1.4237 and 1.4293
Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Fed Williams/Bowman today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.4154; range 1.4237–1.4293 this week.
USD/CAD tagged a week high at 1.4293 in Monday's Asia session before London and NY sold it back to the 1.4237 week low, which held twice around the ISM services release as the USD stalled on mixed PMIs. Demand returned into the Asia session, lifting price back above EMA(20) and the weekly open to a fresh Asia high at 1.4268, extending a sequence of higher lows off Friday's post-NFP low at 1.4201. RSI(14) near 59 sits mid-range, with weak crude and elevated US yields still underpinning the pair beneath the 1.4293–1.4300 round number cap.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4249, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 week high and 1.4300 round number opens the 1.4350 barrier cited in the news
Failure to hold the 1.4237 week low, near the 38.2% fib on the rally from 1.4154, breaks the higher lows and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4224
Loss of EMA(20) and the 1.4249 weekly open would return price to the middle of this week's range
Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Canada September jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the week's key CAD catalyst for the 1.4300 area
USD/CAD has printed rising lows across the window at 1.4154 Wednesday, 1.4201 on Friday's NFP drop and 1.4237 Monday, with yield-led USD dip-buying absorbing the 29K payrolls miss within hours. Monday's Asia push to the 1.4293 week high, just shy of 1.4300, faded through London. The pullback found the monday low at 1.4237 twice, the 61.8% retrace of the NFP leg, and held into the NY session after the ISM Services print. Asia has since lifted price back above EMA(20) and the weekly open, with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s as the pair consolidates just under the 1.4268 asian high.
Support: 1.4259, 1.42485, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 week high puts the 1.4300 multi-month high in play and extends the uptrend
Hourly closes back below EMA(20) near 1.4259 make the weekly open at 1.4249 the first test
Break below the 1.4237 monday low and the rising lows line ends the higher-low sequence
Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Sep 30; tight 1.4237–1.4268 range under 1.4293.
USD/CAD spiked to the 1.4293 week high in Monday's Asia session. London then unwound the move, and NY tested the 1.4237 Monday low twice on the mixed US services PMIs; that low sits on the 61.8% retrace of the NFP-low rally and held both times. Price has since rebuilt above EMA(20) near 1.4256 into today's Asia session, capped so far at the 1.4268 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 56. The higher-low trendline from Friday's 1.4201 NFP low is intact, with elevated US yields and weak crude still the backdrop.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4268 Asia high reopens the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number
Close below the 1.4237 Monday low breaks the higher-low trendline and the 61.8% fib, exposing the 1.4201 NFP low
Repeated closes below EMA(20) at 1.4256 would turn the consolidation into a deeper pullback
Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC and Williams/Bowman today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.4249 and ran to a 1.4293 cyclical high in Asia on Monday, helped by soft oil and firm US yields. London then faded the move to the 1.4237 Monday low, close to the 38.2% fib of the rally off Wednesday's 1.4154 trough, and a second test of that low after the soft ISM Services print in NY hours also held, keeping the higher-low trendline intact. Price has since rebuilt above EMA(20) and EMA(50) toward the 1.4268 Asia high, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, consistent with a 1.4237–1.4293 range inside the broader uptrend.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4293 Monday high and the 1.4300 round number would resume the uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.4249 week open puts the 1.4237 Monday low back in focus
Break below the 1.4237 Monday low cracks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.4201 NFP low
The 1.4268 Asia high is the first cap; rejection there keeps the range read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today could shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC are the week's main risks to the range
00:03 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday, momentum stalled below week high · RSI 55 · price 1.42639
Higher lows intact, Monday lower high capping a 1.4237-1.4265 range.
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4154 base remain intact. The nfp low at 1.4201 held, and Monday's Asia-session spike to the week high at 1.4293 faded through London into the monday low at 1.4237, close to the 61.8% retrace of the Friday-to-Monday leg, as USD lost steam on mixed US services data. Price has since rotated between that low and a 1.4265 lower high set in the first hour of NY, and now sits back above the EMA(20) near 1.4258 (ema20) with RSI(14) around 55.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4265 lower high breaks the lower-highs line from the week high and opens a retest of 1.4293
Failure to hold the 1.4237 monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.4201 nfp low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.4258 would point to range rotation rather than trend continuation
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) plus Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the week's main USD risk ahead of Friday's Canada jobs report