Higher highs/lows from 1.3795, now a 1.4206-1.4293 range.
The three-week advance from 1.3795 stalled at the 1.4293 18m high on Monday as USD strength on yields and oil met stretched-valuation talk. Price has since held a 1.4206-1.4293 range. The pullback found demand at the range floor near the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4154 swing low to 1.4293 leg, and the latest bounce stalled at a lower high near 1.4280. EMA20 stays above EMA50 with price above both, and ATR(14) near 24 pips shows no expansion while the range holds.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4206, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4293 18m high would end the consolidation and resume the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4206 range floor exposes the fib 50% break and the 1.4154 swing low
US Jobless Claims plus Waller and Musalem Thu Oct 8 could shift the USD side of the range
Canada jobs Fri Oct 9 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, UE 6.5%) is the main risk to the range edges
Price back below the fib 50% at 1.4224 puts the range floor under renewed test
Higher highs/lows since 1.3795; 1.4205-1.4293 range.
The four-week higher-high, higher-low advance from 1.3795 has stalled into a roughly 90-pip range between the range floor near 1.4205 and Monday's 18m high at 1.4293. The pullback held the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4154 swing low to 1.4293 leg, and price is now back above the fib 50% at 1.4224 and both EMAs, with RSI near 55 and ATR(14) at about 25 pips compressing. The USD bid on the bond rout and $100+ Brent explains the push into the highs, while Scotiabank's stretched-valuation read helps explain the capping just below 1.4300.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4205, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~90 min) could break the 1.4205-1.4293 range either way
H4 close above the 18m high at 1.4293 and the 1.4300 round number extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the range floor near 1.4205 and the rising lows line opens a test of the 1.4154 swing low
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) is the next scheduled range catalyst
Higher highs and lows since late Sep, now a 1.4205-1.4293 range.
The three-week advance from 1.3778 printed an 18m high at 1.4293, driven by falling oil and a dovish BoC. Soft US wage data then stalled the move, and the rejection there sent price back below the rally line to a swing low at 1.4205, near the 61.8% fib of the 1.4155 prior low to 1.4293 leg. Price is now rotating mid-range with ATR(14) contained near 23 pips, while EMA20 sits just under price and EMA50 lower, so the H4 EMA stack is still upward.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4205 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4155 prior low
Close above the 1.4262 prior high puts the 1.4293 18m high back in play; clearing it reopens the 1.4350 area
FOMC Minutes today 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift USD tone
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) is the next major CAD catalyst for this range
Brent holding above $100 is a source of CAD relief against the trend
Higher highs and higher lows from 1.3766 to 1.4293, now a lower high at 1.4285 inside a 1.4206-1.4293 range.
The three-week higher-high, higher-low advance from 1.3766 topped at the 18m high of 1.4293. Price has since slipped below the rally trendline and printed a lower high at 1.4285, while the dip held the 61.8% retrace near the 1.4206 range low. ATR(14) has eased to about 23 pips, with price sitting below EMA20 and above EMA50, a compression read after soft US wage data pared Fed hike bets.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4206 range low and 1.4200 breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 1.4154 swing low
Close above the 1.4285 lower high and the 1.4293 18m high would resume the rally structure
FOMC Minutes today at 18:00 GMT and Canada jobs on Fri at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows from 1.3766 to 1.4293; pullback has broken the rising trendline and is holding the 1.4200 swing low.
USD/CAD has printed higher highs and higher lows across the window to a 1.4293 18m high. The climb was driven by firm US yields, oil-led inflation fears and softer crude weighing on CAD. Since the rejection there, price set a lower high at 1.4285 and slipped through the rising trendline, with the drop stalling at the 1.4200 swing low, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 1.4154-1.4293 leg. Price now sits below a flattening EMA20 near 1.4240 but just above EMA50 near 1.4218. ATR(14) around 24 pips is steady rather than expanding, consistent with a pause below the high rather than a trend extension.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4200 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4154 prior low
Recovery above the 1.4262 prior high and the 1.4285 lower high puts the 1.4293 18m high back in play
Close above 1.4293 resumes the uptrend; failure there extends the consolidation
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD pricing and this read
Canada jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) is the main CAD-side risk to the structure
01:04 UTC
Uptrend stalling, first lower high printed · RSI 40 · price 1.42111
HH/HL run since early window broken; lower high at 1.4285 under 1.4293 peak.
The three-week climb from 1.3766 topped at the 1.4293 18m high. The rebound failed at a 1.4285 lower high, and price has since slipped through the 1.4237 neckline of a small double top as USD came off its highs on the soft NFP and easing yields. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the 1.4154–1.4293 leg and just above the 1.4201 swing low, below both EMAs, with ATR(14) near 23 pips expanding modestly from earlier in the run.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4201 swing low confirms the first lower low of the move and exposes the 1.4154 breakout base
Recovery back above the 1.4237 neckline negates the double-top read
Close above the 1.4285 lower high and the 1.4293 18m high restores the higher-high sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD and yields
Canada September jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC is the key CAD risk for the week