Range 1.4203-1.4293 with lower highs pressing on range low.
The steady three-week climb from 1.3830 topped at the 1.4293 18m high on hawkish-Fed and BoC-divergence pricing. Since then the pair has held a 90-pip range. Each rebound has printed a lower high near 1.4285 and 1.4278, while the range low at 1.4203, which also sits at the 61.8% of the 1.4154-1.4293 rally fib, has held twice. Price at 1.4219 now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) is neutral at 44, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 25 pips, consistent with a range nearing resolution.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4191, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4293, 1.4400
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4203 range low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value, then the 1.4154 swing low
H4 close above the lower-highs line near 1.4278 and the 1.4293 18m high resumes the uptrend, with the 1.4400 round number the next reference
Canada jobs (LFS) Fri 12:30 GMT, consensus +7K and 6.5% unemployment, could decide which range edge gives way
US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg of the read
Week-long consolidation below 1.4293 with lower highs and higher lows.
The three-week climb from 1.3817 has flattened into a 1.4201–1.4293 range since the 18-month range high printed Monday. The range floor has held twice, and Fed-BoC divergence keeps the pair elevated. Inside that range, lower highs at 1.4285 and 1.4280 and the rising pennant low at 1.4223 are compressing price into a pennant, with dips holding the 50–61.8% fib of the 1.4154 swing low to high leg. Price is pinned between EMA20 above and EMA50 below, ATR(14) is near 26 pips, and RSI is neutral near 49, which fits a coiling market rather than an extending trend.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293, 1.4400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4280 lower high and the 1.4293 range high resumes the uptrend and opens the 1.4400 psych level
Loss of the 1.4223 pennant low and the 1.4201 range floor breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4154 swing low
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 GMT (employment f/c 7K) is the likely catalyst for a pennant resolution
Fed's Musalem today and Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations Fri could shift USD yields and this read
13:04 UTC
Uptrend stalling into a range · RSI 53 · price 1.42701
Range 1.4205–1.4293 below YTD high, slight lower highs.
The three-week climb from 1.3804 topped at the 1.4293 YTD high on yield-driven USD strength, and price has since moved sideways between that high and a range floor near 1.4205. Tuesday's dip after Canada's trade beat held the 61.8% fib of the 1.4154 swing low to high leg and closed below the rising support line, but buyers stepped in at the range floor and lifted price back above the ema20. The swing high at 1.4280 and the YTD high now form a slight lower-highs cap, and RSI near 53 is neutral. ATR(14) around 24 pips is steady rather than expanding.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4205, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4293 ytd high breaks the range and resumes the uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.4205 range floor confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4154 swing low
Repeated rejection at the 1.4280 swing high extends the lower-highs sequence
Holding above the ema20 near 1.4252 keeps price in the upper half of the range
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC, plus 10y yields near 2002 highs
Higher highs/higher lows since 1.3800; 1.4205–1.4293 consolidation.
USDCAD has built a three-week sequence of higher highs and higher lows from 1.3800, along a rising trendline. Hawkish FOMC minutes and Fed-BoC divergence carried it to the 18m high at 1.4293. Since then price has consolidated between a 1.4205 range floor and a lower high near 1.4280, with the pullback holding the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4154 swing low to 1.4293 fib leg. Price sits above both EMAs, with EMA20 still over EMA50. Pivot lows at 1.4237 have absorbed the last two dips, and ATR(14) near 24 pips points to compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4205, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4293 18m high and the 1.4300 cap breaks the lower highs line and resumes the uptrend
Loss of the 1.4237 pivot lows exposes the 1.4205 range floor, where the 61.8% fib sits
Close below the 1.4205 range floor breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, opening the 1.4154 swing low
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
Waller and US jobless claims today could move USD and test the range edges
Higher highs/lows from 1.3800 now compressing in a 1.4200-1.4293 range.
USDCAD has carved higher highs and higher lows from 1.3800 at the start of the window to the 1.4293 18m high. Over the past week that advance has stalled into a range: the range floor near 1.4205 held twice, close to the 61.8% retracement of the swing low 1.4155 to 1.4293 leg, while each rebound has left a lower high, the latest at 1.4280. EMA20 sits above EMA50 with price above both, and ATR(14) near 23 pips shows no expansion, consistent with yield-driven USD demand from the hawkish FOMC minutes meeting CAD that is already stretched versus fair value.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4293 18m high resolves the range higher and extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4205 range floor shifts the read to a deeper correction toward the 1.4155 swing low
Repeated rejection at the 1.4280 lower high keeps the range compressing toward its floor
Fed's Waller and US jobless claims on Thursday, plus Canada jobs data on Friday at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read