USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 9 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:05 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into a range · RSI 58 · price 1.42717
HH/HL leg from 1.3860 now boxed 1.4206-1.4298.
The September advance from 1.3860 printed clean higher highs and higher lows. Since early October it has flattened into a 1.4206-1.4298 range, with the range floor held three times and the range top capping four tests. Today's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked the pair to 1.4298, but the bar faded back under the cap. Price holds above both EMAs, and ATR(14) near 29 pips points to compression inside the box rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4298, 1.4400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4298 range top confirms a range break and opens the 1.4400 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.4206 range floor, which sits near the fib 61.8% at 1.4209, exposes the 1.4154 swing low
Macklem (Tue 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the likely catalysts to resolve the range
Range 1.4205-1.4293 after impulse; lower highs over flat lows.
The window's 1.3860-1.4293 impulse has given way to a two-week range. Highs are stepping lower from the 1.4293 cycle high to the 1.4280 lower high, while the 1.4205 range floor has held three times, compressing price into a narrowing band with ATR(14) near 25 pips. Price sits just below the ema20 (~1.4233) and above EMA50 (~1.4210), with the EMA20/50 cross still positive. The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss landed in the last bar and drew only a muted spike that faded back to the open.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4233, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4205 range floor breaks the flat-low base and exposes the 1.4155 swing low near the 38.2% impulse fib
H4 close above the 1.4280 lower high, then the 1.4293 cycle high, ends the lower-highs compression and resumes the uptrend
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4233 needed to lift price off the range floor
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today, and Macklem on Tue Oct 14, could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing onto a flat 1.4205 floor after a three-week HH/HL advance.
The higher-high/higher-low advance from 1.3843 topped at the 1.4293 cycle high early in the week. Price has since printed successive lower highs at 1.4285 and 1.4277 into a range floor near 1.4205 that has held on four tests. Price is now below a flattening ema20/50 cluster around 1.4238 and sitting in the 50–61.8% retracement of the swing low 1.4155 to cycle-high leg. ATR(14) near 24 pips points to compression, as CAD steadies on a narrowing 2y spread and the USD corrects from 18-month highs.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4155, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 GMT today; a clear beat or a second job loss could resolve the range floor or the lower-high sequence
H4 close below the 1.4205 range floor breaks the HL sequence and exposes the 1.4155 swing low, with 1.4100 round number beyond
Reclaim of the ema20/50 cluster and a close above the 1.4277 lower high reopens the 1.4293 cycle high
US UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift USD yields and this read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling into a range · RSI 45 · price 1.42128
Higher highs and higher lows from 1.3834 to 1.4293, then a week of lower highs above a flat 1.4201 floor.
The three-week rally from 1.3834 topped at the 1.4293 ytd high, and price has since compressed into a descending-triangle shape. Lower highs sit at 1.4285, 1.4280 and 1.4277, while the range floor around 1.4201–1.4208 has been tested three times. Price is back below both EMAs, and EMA20 is converging on EMA50 from above. CAD has firmed as the US yield correction and the Iran pause weigh on USD, while ATR near 24 pips points to compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4154, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4201 range floor would complete the triangle break and expose the 38.2% rally fib near 1.4171 and the 1.4154 swing low
Clearing the 1.4154 swing low puts the 1.4100 round number (Scotiabank level) in play and breaks the higher-low sequence
H4 close above the lower highs line near 1.4280 invalidates the triangle read and reopens the 1.4293 ytd high
Canada LFS at 12:30 GMT today (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H4 EMA20/EMA50 bearish cross would confirm the momentum roll-over
01:04 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling into consolidation · RSI 46 · price 1.42226
Lower highs from 1.4293 over a flat range floor near 1.4201.
The three-week advance from 1.3834 stalled at the 1.4293 cycle high, the 18-month peak reached on hawkish-Fed and risk-off USD demand. Since then each rally has capped lower, at 1.4285, 1.4280 and 1.4277, against a range floor near 1.4201. That gives a descending-triangle shape, with price back below the ema20 and EMA50 and sitting on the fib 50 retracement of the late-September leg at 1.4214. ATR(14) near 24 pips is moderate, not compressed, so the range is still swinging rather than coiling.
Support: 1.4214, 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4201 range floor breaks the consolidation and exposes the 1.4154 swing low
Recovery through the ema20 at 1.4245 and the 1.4280 lower highs line reopens a test of the 1.4293 cycle high
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would mark the first bearish H4 cross since the uptrend began
Canada LFS jobs (f/c 7K, 6.5%) and US UoM inflation expectations in the same Friday session could materially shift this read
Iran strike-plan headlines or a crude rebound could reverse the drift off the range