21:05 UTC
Uptrend stalled into a sideways range · RSI 49 · price 1.42538
1.4205–1.4300 range after a higher-high/higher-low advance.
The higher-high/higher-low advance from 1.3866 has given way to a two-week range between 1.4206 and 1.4298. The range top has capped four tests near 1.4285–1.4298. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock drove a spike to 1.4298, the range top and an 18-month high, but it was faded back to 1.4254, leaving price only marginally above the ema20 with RSI flat near 49. ATR(14) near 26 pips is mid-regime rather than compressed, and the range floor sits close to the 61.8% fib of the 1.4154 swing low to 1.4298 leg.
Support: 1.4245, 1.4206, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4298, 1.4400
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.4298 range top breaks the range and opens the 1.4400 round number
- Failure at the 1.4206 range floor ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4154 swing low
- Sustained trade below the ema20 at 1.4245 shifts price into the lower half of the range
- BoC's Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read