Lower highs since 1.4298 spike high; weekend gap nearly filled.
The weekly open gapped about 16 pips above Friday's 1.4254 close, then faded to 1.4257 in early Asia session trade, leaving the gap nearly filled. Lower highs at the 1.4273 sunday high and the 1.4265 swing high extend Friday's pullback from the 1.4298 spike high set on Canada's -68.3K jobs miss. Price sits on the 50% fib of that spike, with the 61.8% fib at 1.4250 just under the friday low.
Support: 1.42538, 1.42497
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 friday low closes the gap and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4250
M15 close above the 1.4265 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4273 sunday high back in play
A return toward the 1.4298 spike high and 1.4300 would re-test the repeated failure zone
BoC Governor Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the first read on the jobs miss and could materially shift this read
Asia session liquidity is thin; ATR near 5 pips
23:32 UTC
Downtrend since jobs spike, lower highs intact · RSI 45 · price 1.42593
Lower highs from 1.4298 spike high; weekend gap up sold, price at 50% retrace.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked USDCAD from 1.4220 to the 1.4298 spike high. The pair has printed lower highs since. Sunday's open gapped about 17 pips above the 1.4254 Friday close, but the move was sold in early Asia. Price now sits at the 50% retrace (1.4259), just above the 1.4257 session low, with the gap not yet filled.
Support: 1.42573, 1.42537, 1.42497
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4254 friday close fills the gap and exposes fib 61.8 at 1.4250
Reclaim of the 1.4265 bounce high and the 1.4273 gap high breaks the lower-high sequence
Thin Asia session liquidity; ATR near 5 pips
Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the next CAD catalyst; the 1.4298 spike high sits below 1.43 resistance
Weekend gap mostly filled; lower highs since 1.4298, holding above Friday close.
The weekly open gapped about 16 pips higher to the 1.4273 gap open, then a 22:00 UTC drop set a 1.4258 session low near the 50% retracement of Friday's jobs-driven spike, short of the 1.4254 friday close. Early Asia session trade is thin and capped by a 1.4265 bounce high, extending the lower highs from the 1.4298 spike high, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4254 friday close completes the gap fill and exposes the 61.8% of the jobs spike near 1.4250
Reclaim of the 1.4265 bounce high and 1.4273 gap open breaks the lower-high sequence
Hold of the 1.4258 session low keeps the 50% retracement as the floor of the early-Asia range
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst; Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the CAD test after the -68.3K jobs miss
Lower highs off the 1.4298 jobs-spike high; weekend gap partly filled.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss spiked USDCAD to 1.4298, and the move has since faded through a chain of lower highs under the spike trendline. The Sunday open gapped up to the 1.4273 gap high and met rejection. Price slid back to the 1.4258 sunday low, next to the 50% fib of the spike, in thin early Asia trade with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4254, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4273, 1.4278, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4254 friday low fills the weekend gap and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4250
Recovery above the 1.4273 gap high and the 1.4278 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the spike trendline
Spike high at 1.4298 / 1.43 remains the repeated failure point overhead
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the jobs-data spike; weekly-open gap nearly filled.
The weekly open gapped about 17 pips higher to the 1.4273 gap high. Supply has since erased most of the gap, leaving price at 1.4259, just above the 1.4254 Fri close and on the 50% fib of Friday's CAD jobs-shock spike. The rejection at the 1.4298 spike high has left a lower-highs trendline, and early-week trade is thin with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.42538, 1.42497, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42661, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
A full gap fill through the 1.4254 Fri close exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4250 and the 1.4240 prior high from before the LFS release
A reclaim of the 1.4266 Fri NY low and the 1.4273 gap high would break the lower-highs trendline
The 1.4298 spike high / 1.43 area is the repeated failure point; Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Macklem (Tue 06:05 UTC) are the next scheduled drivers
22:17 UTC
Pullback from data spike, drifting lower · RSI 45 · price 1.42607
Lower highs since 1.4298 spike high; weekend gap fading.
USDCAD spiked to a 1.4298 spike high on Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss, was rejected below 1.4300, then printed lower highs through NY into a 1.4254 friday low. Sunday's open gapped up to a 1.4273 open high, but the gap has mostly faded in thin early Asia trade. Price sits just above EMA50 near 1.4260 and is testing the 38.2% of the 1.4206–1.4298 data spike fib.
Support: 1.42537, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.4254 friday low fills the weekend gap and opens the 50% fib near 1.4252, with the Friday london high at 1.4240 below
Recovery above the 1.4273 open high reopens the post-data range toward the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.4300 cap
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC, then BoC's Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC, are the next scheduled drivers of the CAD jobs repricing
Lower highs since jobs spike; Sunday gap partly filled.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked the pair to a 1.4298 spike high, just under 1.43, then it faded through NY into a 1.4254 friday close. Early Asia session opened with a ~17-pip gap up to a 1.4273 open high, and the first hour is already filling it to a 1.4261 sunday low. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the jobs spike, under EMA20.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4254, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 friday close fills the gap and puts the 61.8% retracement near 1.4250 in play
Reclaim of the 1.4273 open high would re-establish the post-spike range
Rejection again at the 1.4298 spike high keeps 1.43 as the cap
A drop through the 1.4220 pre-lfs low would retrace the full jobs spike
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and BoC Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.4298 LFS spike; Sunday gap back into post-LFS band.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked the pair to the 1.4298 LFS high, rejected just under 1.4300 psych, and it then printed lower highs into the 1.4254 Friday close. The thin early-Asia Sunday open gapped about 17 pips higher to 1.4273, back above the 38.2% fib of the spike (1.4268) and the post-LFS low at 1.4266, with the 1.4277 NY high capping.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4277, 1.4298
What it said to watch
A gap fill to the 1.4254 Friday close puts the 50% fib of the LFS spike at 1.4259 back in play
An M15 close above the 1.4277 NY high breaks the post-LFS lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.4298 LFS high and 1.4300 psych
Failure to hold the 1.4266 post-LFS low reopens the late-Friday slide
Thin Sunday liquidity keeps gap moves unreliable until the Asia session fills in
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Post-data range, gapped higher at the weekly open · RSI 50 · price 1.42712
Lower highs off the jobs spike high; weekly open gapped back above the post-data lows.
The weekly open gapped about 17 pips above Friday's 1.4254 close and is trading at 1.4271, back inside the post-data range between the 1.4266 lows and the 1.4278 lower high. Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss drove the jobs spike to a 1.4298 high, just under 1.4300. The pair then faded through a sequence of lower highs into the close, and RSI(14) is now flat near 50.
Support: 1.42661, 1.42537, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42775, 1.42891, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4278 lower high breaks the Friday lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.4289 post-data high
Spike high at 1.4298 / 1.4300 psych, the repeated failure area, is the level to watch for rejection or break
Slip below the 1.4266 post-data lows puts the 1.4254 gap fill in play; below that, the 1.4240 pre-data high
Thin early Asia session liquidity; the gap read is unconfirmed until London establishes a range
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC; BoC Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the larger CAD risk to this structure
21:17 UTC
Post-spike fade, stalled by weekend gap · RSI 54 · price 1.42724
Lower highs below 1.4298 jobs high; gap up from Friday close.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock spiked the pair from the 1.4220 spike base to a rejection at the 1.4298 jobs high, just shy of 1.4300. NY hours then faded it through lower highs at the 1.4289 post-spike and 1.4278 swing high levels into a 1.4254 Fri close. The Sunday open gapped about 17 pips higher to 1.4272, back into the post-jobs range above the twice-tested 1.4266 ny low.
Support: 1.42661, 1.42538, 1.42198
Resistance: 1.42775, 1.42891, 1.42982
What it said to watch
Gap fill back to the 1.4254 fri close would undo the Sunday open bid; holding the 1.4266 ny low keeps the gap intact
M15 close above the 1.4278 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4289 post-spike high and 1.4298 jobs high
Loss of 1.4254 exposes the 50% retracement of the jobs spike fib near 1.4259 and then the 1.4220 spike base
Thin early Asia session liquidity after the gap; Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the next CAD event risk