USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 12 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 41 · price 1.42795
Higher lows from Asia low, late-NY pullback holding above rising trendline.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.4240 Asia low, broke the London high at 1.4267 and peaked at the 1.42871 day high during NY hours, with the USD bid on hawkish-Fed and oil-inflation headlines and CAD still weighed down by last week's jobs miss. The thin-liquidity rollover dip to 1.42714 held the rising trendline near the 50% of the NY leg. Price is now flat around 1.4280 in a 2.5-pip ATR early Asia session.
Support: 1.42714, 1.42669, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42871 day high puts the 1.4300 round number and 18-month high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.42714 rollover low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.42669 london high, then the 1.42543 swing low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tuesday, during the London morning, could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
23:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below the session high · RSI 41 · price 1.42805
NY breakout above London high, now a tight consolidation in early Asia.
London reversed an early dip to 1.4240, and NY broke the 1.4267 London high. The move ran to a 1.4287 session high as USD rebounded ahead of US inflation data. Early Asia is holding a narrow 1.4279–1.4287 band above the 1.4279 pullback low, the thin-liquidity rollover low wick to 1.4271 was absorbed, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 41 with ATR near 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42714, 1.42669
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4279 pullback low exposes the 1.4271 rollover low, then the prior London high at 1.4267 near the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 18m high in view
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) could reset the intraday read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below the high · RSI 46 · price 1.42818
Higher low at 1.4254, tight consolidation under 1.4287.
A USD rebound ahead of this week's inflation data drove the NY rally from the 1.4254 NY base to a 1.4287 session high, after the early-London dip to the 1.4240 day low. The thin rollover spike to 1.4271, near the 50% fib of that leg, recovered quickly. Early Asia is holding just under the high, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.42714, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4287 session high opens the 1.4300 18-month high
Loss of the 1.4271 rollover low exposes the 1.4254 NY base and the higher-low structure
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) lands at the London open and could reset the range
US CPI and Macklem on Wed are the larger catalysts behind the current compression
Higher lows from 1.4240; tight 1.4280–1.4287 consolidation after NY breakout.
After a pre-London dip to 1.4240, NY hours broke the London range top near 1.4268 and ran to a 1.4287 session high as USD firmed on oil-driven inflation fears ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since then price has held a tight 1.4280–1.4287 consolidation above the swing low. The rollover spike to the 1.4271 rollover low tagged the rising trendline near the 50% fib and recovered, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42714, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4287 session high reopens the 1.4300 18m high
Failure to hold the 1.4280 swing low and the 1.4271 rollover low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4254 pullback low would unwind the NY breakout
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC around London open could shift USD tone
22:47 UTC
Uptrend stalling into a tight range · RSI 55 · price 1.42813
NY rally to day high, flat consolidation above range floor.
London reversed an early sweep below the Asian range to 1.4240, and NY hours added a 33-pip leg from the 1.4254 NY swing low to a 1.4287 day high as the USD firmed ahead of US inflation data. Price is now flat between the 1.4280 range floor and the day high into early Asia. The rollover low at 1.4271 was rejected near the 50% retracement of the NY rally; RSI(14) is neutral at 55 and ATR is 2.7 pips.
Support: 1.4279, 1.42714, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4287 day high opens the path to the 1.4300 18-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4280 range floor exposes the 1.4271 rollover low and 50% fib
A break of the 1.4271 rollover low targets the 1.4254 NY swing low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Uptrend from NY session, now stalling below session high · RSI 41 · price 1.42806
NY breakout above Asian range; post-NY consolidation 1.4280–1.4287.
A pre-London false break below the Asian low to 1.4240 reversed, and NY broke the 1.4266 Asian high as the USD rebounded on oil-driven safe-haven demand and a soft CAD backdrop, topping at the 1.4287 session high. Since the NY close price has held a tight band at the 1.4279 pullback low, and the thin rollover low at 1.4271 sits near the 50% of the NY rally fib.
Support: 1.4279, 1.4271, 1.4266
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4279 pullback low and the rally trendline exposes the 1.4271 rollover low and the 1.4266 asian high
Close above the 1.4287 session high reopens the 1.4300 18m high
Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC around London open and could shift the USD leg
22:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 42 · price 1.42799
NY breakout above London range, pullback holding above breakout.
Early London swept the Asian range low to 1.4240 before reversing. The NY open dip held at the 1.4254 ny open low, and price then broke the 1.4267 London range top, running to a 1.4287 day high as the USD caught a bid on oil and Fed hike pricing. Price has faded into the early Asia session, with a thin-liquidity wick to the 1.4271 rollover low near the 50% retrace of the NY rally.
Support: 1.4271, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4271 rollover low reopens the 1.4267 London top as a retest
A break back below 1.4254 (ny open low) negates the NY breakout structure
A close above the 1.4287 day high puts the 1.4300 round number and 18-month high in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and the build-up to Wed US CPI could shift USD direction
Higher lows from 1.4240 Asia low, flat consolidation 1.4280–1.4287 since NY close.
The 1.4240 dip before London was fully reversed as USD rebounded ahead of US CPI. Price then built higher lows through NY, from the ny open low at 1.4254 to the 1.4280 swing low, before topping at the 1.4287 session high. Price has gone flat since NY close. A thin rollover wick tagged 1.4271, near the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline from the Asia low, then recovered. Price now sits back at the swing low with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 3 pips in early Asia.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42714, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4280 swing low and the 1.4271 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Break of the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift this read around London open; Macklem and US CPI on Wed
21:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 51 · price 1.42779
NY range break higher, now consolidating in thin post-rollover Asia.
USDCAD swept below the Asian range to 1.4240 into London open. It then broke the London range top at 1.4267 during NY hours as USD firmed on oil and Fed-hike pricing, marking a day high at 1.4287. The post-NY drift and a thin rollover spike low at 1.4271 held around the 50% retracement of the NY leg from the 1.4254 NY open low, with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 1.4271, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4267 range top puts price back inside the London range
Clearance of the 1.4287 day high exposes the 1.4300 18m high
Loss of the 1.4254 NY open low unwinds the whole NY leg
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back after NY close · RSI 31 · price 1.42776
NY broke the London range top; capped at 1.4287, the 1.4280 floor has since given way.
Price dipped under the Asian range to 1.4240 before London, then the NY session broke the London high at 1.4267 on broad USD demand and topped at the 1.4287 session high. After NY close the 1.4280 broken floor gave way in thin rollover trade, leaving price on the ema50 at 1.4275, which lines up with the 38.2% of the ny rally fib. RSI(14) is near 31.
Support: 1.4275, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the ema50 + fib area at 1.4275 exposes the london high at 1.4267, the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally
A move back above the 1.4280 broken floor negates the range break and puts the 1.4287 session high, then the 1.4300 18m high, back in view
A break below the 1.4254 pre-NY low would erase the NY breakout
Thin Asia liquidity ahead; Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled risk
21:17 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling after NY rally · RSI 41 · price 1.42806
Higher low at 1.4254, session high 1.4287, now in a tight post-NY consolidation.
USD rebounded ahead of this week's US inflation data, driving a NY session rally from the 1.4254 NY low through the Sunday open high at 1.4273 to a session high of 1.4287. Price has since compressed in a 1.4280–1.4287 band and is drifting toward the 1.4279 swing low into a thin rollover, with RSI(14) cooled to ~41 and ATR near 2.3 pips.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42729, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4279 swing low opens the 38.2% fib and the open high at 1.4273
Clean break of the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 18m high back in play
Loss of 1.4254 NY low would unwind the NY rally structure
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the first scheduled risk; Macklem and US CPI on Wed could materially shift this read
NY breakout above London high, now a tight post-NY consolidation.
Asia swept down to a 1.4240 day low before London reclaimed the 1.4250s. NY then broke the 1.4267 London high on broad USD demand tied to oil-driven safe-haven flows and Fed hike bets, and stalled at a 1.4287 session high. Late-NY trade is compressing in a 1.4280–1.4287 band above the 1.4280 swing low, with RSI(14) near 48 and price slipping just under EMA20.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42669, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4280 swing low ends the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4267 London high.
The 50% retrace of the day low–NY high move sits near 1.4264, close to the London high, so that zone is the deeper reference if the swing low gives way.
A break of the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 18m high back in play.
Fed's Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC, around the London open, and could shift this read; ATR near 2.3 pips reflects thin post-NY conditions.
20:47 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.42815
NY breakout above Asian high, now consolidating below session high.
USDCAD broke the 1.4273 Asian high in the first hour of NY as the USD rebounded ahead of CPI and crude slid. That leg built on higher lows off the 1.4240 London-open low and the 1.4254 higher low, peaking at a 1.4287 session high. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4280–1.4287 band, with RSI(14) near 47 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.42795, 1.4273, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4280 swing low puts the 1.4273 asian high breakout level up for a retest
Break of the 1.4287 session high opens the 1.4300 18-mth high
Loss of the higher lows trendline toward 1.4254 undoes the NY breakout read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Higher lows from London open low; late-NY compression below session high.
London open swept below the Asian low to 1.4240 and reversed. NY extended the move from 1.4254 to a 1.4287 session high, clearing the 1.4273 weekend-gap high as USD firmed ahead of this week's CPI. Late-NY trade has compressed into a 1.4282–1.4287 band just above EMA20, with RSI(14) cooling to ~59 and ATR(14) near 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.4282, 1.4280, 1.4267
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4282 late-NY base and the 1.4280 pullback low exposes the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally near 1.4275
A break of the 1.4287 session high brings the 1.4300 18m high into play
A return below the 1.4267 London high, which aligns with the 61.8% fib, would negate the NY breakout
The rising-lows trendline from 1.4240/1.4254 sits near 1.4269; a break would end the higher-low sequence
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
HH/HL chain from the 1.4254 NY low; tight consolidation under the session high.
USD/CAD reversed the London-open dip to 1.4240 and rallied off 1.4254 through NY as the USD firmed ahead of this week's US CPI, clearing the Sunday gap high at 1.4273. Late-NY trade has compressed into a 1.4282–1.4287 consolidation beneath the session high, about 13 pips short of the 1.4300 18-month high.
Support: 1.4282, 1.42795, 1.42732
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 18-month high in play
A break of the 1.4282 swing low and then the 1.4280 NY pullback low would end the HL chain and break the NY trendline
A return below the 1.4273 gap high would mark the NY breakout as a false break; that level sits near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift this read during London
HH/HL chain since London; tight late-NY range above broken Asian high.
After London reclaimed a pre-open dip to 1.4240, the NY session broke the Asian high at 1.4273 and ran from the 1.4254 NY low to a 1.4287 session high, driven by a firm USD on oil and Fed hike bets while CAD stays heavy after Friday's -68.3K jobs miss. Late NY is compressing in a 5-pip band just above the 1.4280 swing low and EMA20, with RSI(14) cooled to ~60 and the 1.4300 round number 16 pips overhead.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42732, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 round number (18-month high) in play
M15 close below the 1.4280 swing low breaks the NY HH/HL chain; the 1.4273 Asian high is the next retest area
Loss of the rising trendline near the 1.4254 NY low would unwind the NY rally
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC, London session) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 13:30 UTC, holding below session high.
The weekly-open gap was filled in Asia, then a pre-London flush hit 1.4240. NY broke the asian high at 1.4273 on broad USD demand and set a 1.4287 session high. Late NY is flattening just under the 1.4300 18m high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60 and the pullback low at 1.4280 intact.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42732, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4280 pullback low and rising trendline from the 1.4254 ny swing low ends the higher-low chain
Return below the 1.4273 asian high would mark the NY breakout as a false break
M15 close above the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 18m high in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the read early in London
19:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 61 · price 1.42841
Higher lows since the NY low; Asian high broken, compressing under the session high.
Buyers absorbed a pre-London dip to 1.4240. USD/CAD then cleared the Asian high at 1.4273 during NY hours from a NY low of 1.4254, tagging a session high of 1.4287 as USD firmed on oil-driven hike bets and CAD stayed heavy after Friday's jobs miss. Late NY is compressing above the 1.4280 swing low with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) around 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42732, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4280 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.4273 Asian high back in play as support
A break above the 1.4287 session high brings the 1.4300 round number and 18-month high into view
A loss of the NY low trendline and the 1.4254 NY low would unwind the NY breakout
Fed's Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC and could shift USD pricing into London
19:24 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near session high · RSI 61 · price 1.42841
NY breakout above London range, higher-low chain intact, tight consolidation 1.4280–1.4287.
London open swept below the Asian range low to 1.4240 and reversed. NY then broke the London high at 1.4268 and rallied to a session high at 1.42871 as USD firmed on oil and Middle East headlines while CAD stayed heavy after the jobs miss. Late NY is compressing between the 1.42795 swing low and the session high, with RSI(14) cooled to around 61.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42746, 1.4268
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.42795 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4275
Close above the 1.42871 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in play
Loss of the London high at 1.4268 would undo the NY breakout
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Higher highs and higher lows since the pre-London low; Asian high broken in NY.
After the weekend gap, a pre-London sweep to 1.4240 reversed, and NY hours broke the 1.4273 Asian high on a firmer USD and soft oil. Price holds near the 1.4287 session high in thin US-holiday trade. RSI(14) sits around 67, and the 13:30 rally fib has its shallow 23.6% level near the 1.4280 pullback low.
Support: 1.4280, 1.4273
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4287 session high brings the 1.4300 round number into play, which is also the 18-month high.
Failure to hold the 1.4280 pullback low exposes a retest of the 1.4273 Asian high.
A break of the rising lows trendline would undo the intraday higher-low sequence.
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and the Macklem/US CPI events on Wed could materially shift this read.
NY breakout above London range; pullback low held, fresh session high at close.
A pre-London sweep below the Asian range to 1.4240 reversed. NY then climbed from the 1.4254 NY low through the London high at 1.4267 and has printed higher highs and higher lows to a fresh session high at 1.4287, with RSI(14) near 76. A broadly firmer USD on Middle East tensions and softer crude is behind the leg, and the 1.4300 18m high sits about 13 pips above.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42669, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4280 pullback low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Return under the London high at 1.4267 would turn the NY breakout into a false break
1.4300 18m high: area to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 73 · price 1.42859
Higher highs and higher lows through NY session, above Asian range.
USD/CAD gapped up at the weekly open, faded to a pre-London low at 1.4240, then broke the Asian high at 1.4273 during NY hours as USD turned bid on Middle East tension and softer crude in holiday-thinned trade. Higher lows at the 1.4254 NY low and the 1.4280 swing low hold the rising trendline, with price testing the 1.4286 session high and RSI(14) near 73.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42732, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42862, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4286 session high puts the 1.4300 round number, the 18-month high, in play
Loss of the 1.4280 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and the rising trendline
A return below the 1.4273 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 73 · price 1.42848
HH/HL chain since the NY low; Asian range high broken.
NY session rallied from the 1.4254 NY low through the Asian high at 1.4273, printing a session high at 1.4286 with a 1.4280 swing low holding as USD firmed on Iran and oil tensions in thin US-holiday trade. RSI(14) sits near 73 with ATR about 3 pips, and price is pressing the high late in NY hours, 14 pips below the 1.4300 round number.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42732, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42862, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4280 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the NY trendline
Acceptance back under the Asian high at 1.4273 (near the 38.2% of the NY leg) would mark a false break
1.4300 round number, also the 18-month high, is the next reference above the session high
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since 13:30 UTC; Asian range high broken and holding.
USD/CAD swept below the Asian range low to 1.4240 at London open and reversed. A rally during NY hours from the 1.4254 rally low then broke the Asian high at 1.4273 and printed a session high at 1.4286 in thin holiday trade, tracking the firmer USD on Iran/oil haven demand. The HH/HL chain is intact above the 1.4280 swing low, with RSI(14) near 74 and price closing in on the 1.4300 18m high.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42732, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42862, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4300 18m high would cap the NY rally; an M15 close above it extends the breakout
M15 close below the 1.4280 swing low and the rally trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the asian high at 1.4273, the 38.2% NY rally fib, would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.4254 rally low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) could shift this read
17:46 UTC
Uptrend, holding near session high · RSI 74 · price 1.42838
Higher lows from London low; NY broke the Asian high.
Price gapped up at the open and slid through Asia. London's dip to 1.4240 reversed fast in a false break. The NY-hours rally then cleared the Asian high at 1.4273 and reached a 1.4285 session high as the USD firmed on Iran/oil haven demand. Late NY, in thin US/Canada holiday trade, price is holding a pullback low at 1.4280 with RSI(14) near 74.
Support: 1.42795, 1.42732, 1.4265
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4280 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain
Slip back under the 1.4273 Asian high puts the breakout in doubt; the 1.4265 London range top sits below
Session high at 1.4285 is the nearest cap; a close above opens the 1.4300 18m high
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and the Monthly Budget Statement (Tue 18:00 UTC) are the next USD risk ahead of Wed CPI and Macklem
Loss of the HL trendline from the London low would flatten the intraday uptrend
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.4254 NY low; gap-open high reclaimed.
USD/CAD bounced from an early-London sweep to 1.4240 and broke back above the Sunday gap open near 1.4273 during NY hours. Since the 1.4254 NY low it has built a higher-high, higher-low chain as the USD firmed ahead of US CPI, in holiday-thin trade. The 1.4285 session high is capping late NY, with RSI(14) cooled to ~68 and the pullback low at 1.4280 holding so far.
Support: 1.4280, 1.4273, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4285 session high puts the 1.4300 18m high in play
Break of the 1.4280 pullback low and the rising support line exposes the 1.4273 gap open, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.4240–1.4285 leg
Loss of 1.4254 ny low erases the NY higher-low chain
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk; liquidity thin with US/Canada holidays
Higher lows since the early-London low; Asian range high broken in NY, pullback from the session high.
An early-London false break below the Asian range to 1.4240 reversed, and the NY-hours rally cleared the asian high at 1.4273 to a session high at 1.4285. The leg came on the USD rebound from oil and Iran haven demand in thin holiday trade. Lower highs since 16:15 UTC after London close and RSI(14) easing to ~67 show momentum cooling, and the 38.2% fib of the NY leg sits on the asian high.
Support: 1.4273, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hold of the asian high at 1.4273, which is also the 38.2% fib, keeps the breakout read intact. Failure reopens the Asian range.
A break of the ny swing low at 1.4254 undoes the NY rising support structure.
An M15 close above the 1.4285 session high puts the 1.4300 round number (18-month high area) in play.
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC), then Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read. Holiday liquidity is thin into the close.
Higher low at 1.4254, breakout above London range and weekly-open high.
In holiday-thin NY trade, with US and Canada out, USD/CAD rose from the 1.4254 swing low. It cleared the 1.4267 London high and the 1.4273 weekly-open high to set a 1.4285 session high, tracking the USD rebound on Iran/oil haven demand. After London close, price is easing just under the high and RSI(14) is cooling from the mid-70s.
Support: 1.4273, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.4273 breakout level (38.2% fib) keeps the higher-low chain intact
M15 close back below the 1.4267 London high (61.8% fib) turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.4285 session high opens the 1.4300 round number, the 18-month high
Rising support from the 06:30 low sits near 1.4262; a break there undoes the day's higher-low structure
Iran/oil headlines in thin holiday liquidity can move CAD; Fed's Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC
NY rally broke London range top; HH/HL chain since 13:30 UTC.
The pre-London dip to the 1.4240 day low was fully reversed, and the NY rally from the 1.4254 NY swing low cleared the 1.4267 London high on a broad USD bid tied to Middle East risk and softer crude. Price is now stalling just under the 1.4285 session high, with RSI(14) near 67 and the 1.4300 18m high 15 pips overhead in thin US/Canada holiday liquidity.
Support: 1.4267, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in holiday-thin conditions could jolt the breakout read
M15 close above the 1.4285 session high puts the 1.4300 18m high in play
Pullback holding the 1.4267 London high (61.8% of the NY rally fib) keeps it a retest; loss of the 1.4254 NY swing low unwinds the breakout
Close below the day higher-low trendline near 1.4261 exposes the 1.4240 day low
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, NY leg extending · RSI 76 · price 1.42842
Higher lows off London-open low, breakout above weekly gap high.
USDCAD held a higher-low line from the 1.4240 London-open low and pushed through the 1.4267 london top and 1.4273 gap high to a 1.4285 session high during NY hours. The move came as USD turned bid on Middle East tension and softer crude. RSI(14) at 76 is stretched but not extreme, and US/Canada holiday liquidity is thin.
Support: 1.4273, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone within the hour
Failure to hold the 1.4273 gap high puts the breakout in question and returns focus to the 1.4267 london top
Loss of the 1.4254 ny swing low breaks the higher-low line and the intraday HL chain
A close above the 1.4285 session high leaves the 1.4300 18m high as the next reference; rejection there would mark a stall
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 78 · price 1.42842
NY-session breakout above London range; higher lows from early-London low.
USDCAD broke the 1.4255–1.4267 London range during NY hours and cleared Friday's 1.4278 prior high. The rally ran to a 1.4285 session high on a broad USD bid tied to Middle East tensions, in holiday-thin trade. RSI(14) is near 78 after 11 straight higher closes, while the early-London flush to 1.4240 still marks the low of the rally.
Support: 1.42775, 1.4267, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the 1.4278 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a close back below the 1.4267 range top would flag a false break
A break of the 1.4254 swing low and the rising support line would negate the NY-session rally structure
The 1.4300 18m high is the next reference above the 1.4285 session high
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC; US/Canada holiday liquidity can exaggerate the reaction
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY afternoon · RSI 75 · price 1.4281
Higher lows from Asia low, London range top broken.
USD/CAD cleared the London high at 1.4267 during NY hours. It then pushed through the weekend gap high near 1.4273 to a session high at 1.4282 as the USD rebound extended. RSI(14) sits near 75 in holiday-thin liquidity, and the rising trendline from the 1.4240 Asia low still holds after the 1.4254 NY low.
Support: 1.4273, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4282, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4267 london high puts price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold the 1.4273 gap high would mark the breakout as a false break
1.4300 round number is also the 18-month high, the area to watch for rejection or break
Loss of the 1.4254 ny low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin US/Canada holiday liquidity could materially shift this read
Range break above 1.4268, higher lows since the 1.4240 low.
After the 1.4254 swing low, USD/CAD broke the 1.4258–1.4268 range top in the first hour of NY. It reclaimed the Sunday gap-open area and the Friday high near 1.4277, and is now testing the 1.4280 session high. The move tracks the broad USD rebound and softer crude weighing on CAD, though US/Canada holidays keep liquidity thin. RSI(14) at 71 is hot but not stretched, and the higher-low line from the 1.4240 Asia low remains intact, with the 1.4300 round number overhead.
Support: 1.4277, 1.4268, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4268 range top marks the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4280 session high puts the 1.4300 round number (18-month high area) in play
Break of the 1.4254 swing low and the higher-low line ends the intraday rally structure
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since early London · RSI 69 · price 1.42758
NY break above London range top; HL chain from 1.4240 session low.
Early-London sweep to the 1.4240 session low reversed sharply. Since then the pair has built higher lows, and the NY session broke the 1.4265–1.4268 range top that capped London. Price has cleared the 1.4273 gap open, with the USD rebound ahead of US CPI behind the move. It now sits just under Friday's 1.4278 high, with RSI near 69. US and Canadian holidays mean the advance is running on thin liquidity.
Support: 1.4273, 1.4268, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4268 range top would mark the breakout as a false break.
Failure to hold the 1.4254 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline from 1.4240.
An M15 close above the 1.4278 friday high opens the path toward the 1.4300 18m high.
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, in holiday-thin liquidity, could materially shift this read.
15:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend from session low, extended into NY · RSI 63 · price 1.42727
Higher low at 1.4254, London range high broken.
USDCAD cleared the 1.4267 London high during NY hours as USD firmed ahead of CPI, tagging a 1.4274 session high back at the weekly-open gap level. The 1.4240 session low and 1.4254 NY low form a higher-low trendline, and RSI(14) at ~63 is not stretched. The 38.2% retracement of the session rally sits near 1.4261.
Support: 1.42669, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42741, 1.42775
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4267 london high turns the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 1.4278 friday high extends the range break
Loss of the 1.4254 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline and returns focus to the 1.4240 session low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; US/Canadian holiday-thin liquidity can exaggerate moves
14:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since the London open · RSI 57 · price 1.42679
Sweep of the Asian low, then a 1.4258–1.4268 range now testing the top.
A pre-London sweep below the 1.4251 Asian low printed the 1.4240 day low and reversed sharply at the London open. Since then, price has held a range above the 1.4258 midday low. It is now pressing the 1.4268 session high in thin, holiday-affected NY trade as USD firms on oil and geopolitics. The 13:30 UTC swing low at 1.4254 sits on the 50% retracement of the day's rally.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.42732, 1.42775
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4268 session high exposes the 1.4273 gap high left at the Sunday open, then the 1.4278 Friday high.
A break back below the 1.4258 midday low and the 1.4254 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline. That would put the day low back in focus.
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC and could shift USD tone in thin holiday liquidity.
14:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 58 · price 1.42664
Higher lows off the pre-London sweep low; capped at the 1.4267 session high.
Monday's gap open at 1.4270 faded through Asia into a sweep low at 1.4240 just before London open. The USD rebound in Europe then lifted the pair into a 1.4258–1.4267 range, and the NY low at 1.4254 held near the 50% retrace. Price is back at the 1.4267 session high in thin US/Canada holiday trade, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4270, 1.4273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 session high reopens the 1.4270 gap open and the 1.4273 week open
Slip back below the 1.4258 midday low returns price to the middle of the London range
Break of the 1.4254 NY low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.4240 sweep low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC lands in holiday-thin liquidity and could extend intraday moves
Higher low at 1.4254 inside a tight 1.4254–1.4267 NY range.
Monday's ~16-pip opening gap partly filled through Asia. The London open then swept the asian low at 1.4251 down to the 1.4240 london low before reversing sharply as the USD rebounded on oil and geopolitics. The NY session, thin on the US/Canada holiday, is compressing between the 1.4254 ny low (near the 38.2–50% retrace of the London rally) and the 1.4267 session high, which has capped price twice. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.42543, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42669, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 session high opens a retest of the 1.4273 gap high
Break below the 1.4254 ny low undercuts the rising lows and exposes the asian low at 1.4251, with the 1.4240 london low below that
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
Holiday-thin liquidity can exaggerate wicks through range edges
13:47 UTC
Flat range after London rebound, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 1.42589
Tight 1.4258–1.4267 range above reclaimed Asian low, range low under test.
The Sunday gap high at 1.4273 faded through Asia. London open broke the Asian low at 1.4251, stalled at the 1.4240 London low, then reclaimed the level, a false break that held. Since then a 9-pip range of 1.4258–1.4267 has held on US-holiday-thin flows, and price is pressing the range low in the first hour of NY with RSI near 43, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42669, 1.42732, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4258 range low exposes the Asian low at 1.4251 and the 38.2% retrace of the London rebound
Close back above the 1.4267 range high reopens the 1.4273 gap high, with the 1.4300 18m high cap beyond
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin holiday trade could break the range
Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to this read
13:32 UTC
Flat, intraday range after early dip · RSI 43 · price 1.42589
London-NY range 1.4258–1.4267, price at range floor.
The weekly open gap at 1.4273 filled during Asia, and the London open swept below the 1.4251 asian low to a 1.4240 session low before reclaiming it. Since then price has held a tight 1.4258–1.4267 range in thin US/Canada holiday trade, with CAD still heavy after Friday's jobs miss. The first hour of NY is pressing the range low, with RSI(14) at 43 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42669, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4258 range low exposes the 1.4251 asian low and the 1.4240 session low
Close above 1.4267 range high reopens the 1.4273 weekly open
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could break the holiday-thinned range
Fib 50% at 1.4253 sits near the asian low, a confluence zone on any range break lower
13:16 UTC
Sideways after London rebound, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.42616
Tight 1.4258–1.4267 range above swept Asian low.
The Sunday gap up filled during Asia. London open then swept the Asian low at 1.4251 to 1.4240 before a sharp reversal through the Asian range, as USD recovered on renewed haven demand. Since then price has been boxed between the range floor at 1.4258 and the range top at 1.4267, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR compressed to about 3.5 pips in thin US/Canada holiday trade.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42669, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 range top opens the 1.4273 gap high
Failure to hold the 1.4258 range floor exposes the 1.4251 Asian low and the 50% retrace near 1.4253
Loss of the 1.4240 London low would negate the sweep-and-reversal read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could break the holiday-thin range
13:03 UTC
Range after London rebound · RSI 55 · price 1.42632
Tight 1.4258–1.4267 box since 08:00 UTC.
Sunday's gap higher faded through Asia, then London open swept below the asian low to a london low at 1.4240 before rebounding to the 61.8% fib area of Friday-to-Monday levels and into a 1.4258–1.4267 range. NY session is holiday-thin (US and Canada out), with ATR near 3.5 pips and the range top capping twice; the sunday open at 1.4270 remains unfilled above.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42669, 1.42703, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 range top opens the sunday open gap at 1.4270 and the asian high at 1.4273
Failure to hold the 1.4258 range floor exposes the asian low at 1.4251
Loss of 1.4240 london low would negate the London rebound fib structure
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
12:46 UTC
Flat, tight intraday range · RSI 49 · price 1.42626
Range 1.4258–1.4267 after reclaim of Asian low.
The Monday gap higher faded through Asia. A pre-London sweep of the asian low at 1.4251 ran to a session low of 1.4240, then reversed at London open back inside the range. Since then the pair has compressed in a 9-pip range between 1.4258 and 1.4267, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 49. US and Canadian holidays are keeping liquidity thin.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 range high puts the 1.4273 asian high and the top of the sweep rebound in play
Loss of the 1.4258 range low reopens the 1.4251 asian low; failure there exposes the 1.4240 session low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could break the holiday-thin range
12:31 UTC
Recovering from London-open low, now flat · RSI 57 · price 1.42642
Tight 1.4258–1.4267 range above rising lows.
Monday's gap above Friday's close was filled in Asia. A false break below the asian low into the 1.4240 london low reversed sharply at London open, and higher lows have since compressed price into a 1.4258–1.4267 range into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 3.6 pips. US and Canadian holidays keep trade thin, leaving USD/CAD parked in the mid-1.42s as softer yields offset weak CAD.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42669, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 session high breaks the range and opens the 1.4273 gap high
Loss of the 1.4258 range low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.4251 asian low near the 61.8% fib
A break back below the 1.4240 london low negates the false break
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt price in thin holiday conditions
12:17 UTC
Intraday range after a V-shaped recovery · RSI 47 · price 1.42599
Asian-low sweep reversed and London is holding a tight range, now testing the floor.
A pre-London break of the 1.4251 asian low ran to a 1.4240 sweep low and reversed at the open. Since then, London has held a 1.4260–1.4267 range capped by the session high. Price is back on the 1.4258 range floor in the London-NY transition, while US and Canadian holidays keep liquidity thin. CAD stays heavy after Friday's jobs shock, which set the 1.4298 friday high.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42669, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4258 range floor exposes the 61.8% sweep rally fib near the 1.4250 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.4267 session high brings the 1.4273 weekly open back into view
A move under the 1.4240 sweep low would turn the morning false break into a lower-low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in thin holiday trade
12:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below the weekly open gap · RSI 58 · price 1.42651
Asian low swept at 1.4240 and reclaimed, then a tight 1.4260–1.4267 London consolidation.
The weekly open gap to 1.4273 faded through Asia. Just before London, price swept below the Asian low at 1.4251 to a sweep low of 1.4240, then reclaimed the full Asian range. Since then the London session has been compressing in a 1.4260–1.4267 band under the session high, with soft US yields and weak oil offsetting each other and US/Canadian holidays thinning flows.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 session high puts the 1.4273 weekly open gap in play, with the 1.4298 jobs high from Friday's post-payrolls spike above
Loss of the 1.4260 range floor reopens the 1.4251 Asian low; back below the 1.4240 sweep low would void the reclaim
Holiday-thin NY session; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD
London false break below Asian low reclaimed, now consolidating 1.4260–1.4267 below gap open.
Early London pushed through the 1.4251 asian low to a 1.4240 london low, then reversed. Price has retraced about 76% of the drop from the 1.4273 gap open and is now pinned between the 1.4260 london base and the 1.4267 session high. US and Canada holidays keep trade thin, with softer US yields and sliding crude pulling in opposite directions.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 session high opens the 1.4273 gap open, which is the full retrace of the weekly-open gap
Failure to hold the 1.4260 london base returns the pair to the 1.4251 asian low
A loss of 1.4240 below the london low would turn the early-London false break into a lower low
1.4298 jobs high from Friday's post-payrolls spike caps the move under the 1.4300 handle
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
11:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, compressing under session high · RSI 55 · price 1.4264
False break below Asian low, higher lows through London.
The weekly-open gap above Friday's post-jobs close filled just before London, when price broke the 1.4251 Asian low and bottomed at the 1.4240 session low. That false break was reclaimed, and the London rebound has built rising lows into a tight 1.4260–1.4267 band, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 in thin holiday trade with US and Canada closed.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4267 session high exposes the 1.4273 weekly open; a stall there keeps the London base range intact
Loss of the 1.4260 London base and the rising lows line reopens the 1.4251 Asian low, then the 1.4240 session low
The Friday high at 1.4298 caps the window just under 1.4300
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled risk and could shift this read in illiquid conditions
11:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling in tight range · RSI 57 · price 1.42637
V-rebound from 1.4240 session low, compressing 1.4260–1.4265.
Holiday-thinned Monday: the weekly-open gap up to the 1.4273 sunday open filled during the Asia session. A pre-London flush below the 1.4251 asian low to a 1.4240 session low was fully reclaimed by 08:00 UTC. Price has since compressed in a 5-pip band, with the 1.4265 session high capping and the 1.4260 range floor sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4273–1.4240 drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 57.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4265 session high (78.6% fib) opens a retest of the 1.4273 sunday open
Loss of the 1.4260 range floor puts the 1.4251 asian low and 1.4240 session low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with US and Canada on holiday, could break the compression
10:46 UTC
Recovering from early-London dip, now flat · RSI 59 · price 1.42623
Tight London range 1.4260–1.4265 inside the Asian range after a false break lower.
The weekly gap open at 1.4273 faded through Asia. Price then broke the asian low at 1.4251 just before London and printed a sweep low at 1.4240, before reversing back inside the range at London open. Since 08:00 UTC price has compressed between the range floor at 1.4260 and the london high at 1.4265, holding near the top of the rebound fib. US and Canadian holidays are keeping trade thin and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.4265 reopens the gap open at 1.4273
Loss of the 1.4260 range floor puts the asian low at 1.4251 back in play
A break back under the 1.4240 sweep low would void the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD in holiday-thinned conditions
False break below Asian low reclaimed; tight 1.4260–1.4265 compression under session high.
The London open dip below the Asian low at 1.4251 ran to a 1.4240 session low and was fully reclaimed within the hour. The London rebound has stalled in a 5-pip band between the 1.4260 floor and the 1.4265 session high, below the 1.4270 weekly open gap, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and US/Canada holidays keeping ranges thin.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42703
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 session high opens a retest of the 1.4270 weekly open gap
Loss of the 1.4260 floor puts the 50% of the London rebound and the 1.4251 Asian low back in play
A break below the 1.4240 session low invalidates the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the only scheduled risk into thin holiday NY hours
False break below Asian low, tight London range under weekly open.
The weekend gap from Friday's 1.4254 close to the 1.4273 weekly open filled in Asia. Ahead of the London open, price slipped below the asian low at 1.4251 to a session low at 1.4240 and was reclaimed within an hour. London has since compressed between the range low at 1.4260 and the london high at 1.4265, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and US/Canada holidays thinning flow.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.4265 opens the weekly open at 1.4273
Loss of the range low at 1.4260 brings the rebound fib 50% near 1.4252 and the asian low at 1.4251 back into play
A break back below the session low at 1.4240 negates the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; holiday-thin liquidity can exaggerate any reaction
Pre-London sweep of the Asian low reversed; tight band under session high.
The weekly-open gap at 1.4273 filled in Asia, and the pre-London push swept the asian low at 1.4251 down to the 1.4240 sweep low before reversing. London has rebuilt to 1.4265, roughly the 78.6% retracement of Friday's post-jobs drift, and is compressing in a 1.4260–1.4265 band. US and Canada holidays are keeping volumes thin.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4265 session high opens the 1.4273 weekly open
Loss of the 1.4260 band floor exposes the asian low at 1.4251
Back below the 1.4240 sweep low invalidates the false-break read
1.4298 friday high remains the cap from the jobs spike
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD in thin holiday trade
Asian low swept pre-London, range reclaimed, tight consolidation under London high.
The weekly gap open at 1.4270 faded, and a pre-London sweep of the 1.4251 Asian low to 1.4240 reversed into a London rally that reclaimed the Asian range. Price is now consolidating at 1.4260–1.4265, under a London high that matches the early-week cap. RSI(14) is neutral at 56, and US and Canadian holidays are thinning liquidity.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42703, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4260 consol low brings the 1.4251 Asian low back into play (near the 61.8% of the London rally)
A break of the 1.4265 london high opens the 1.4270 gap open; acceptance above it exposes the 1.4298 jobs high
Loss of the 1.4240 sweep low negates the London rally read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; holiday-thin US/Canada liquidity can exaggerate moves
09:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 63 · price 1.42634
Asian-low sweep reversed; pressing session high inside Asian range.
London open swept the 1.4251 asian low to a 1.4240 london low, then reversed. Rising lows have since lifted price back to the 1.4265 session high, and RSI(14) at 63 is not stretched. Monday's opening gap has filled, CAD stays heavy after Friday's -68.3K jobs miss, and US/Canada holidays are thinning liquidity.
Support: 1.4256, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 session high exposes the 1.4273 weekly open, then the 1.4298 friday high
Loss of the 1.4256 flip level and the rising lows trendline reopens the 1.4251 asian low
A break back below the 1.4240 london low would negate the sweep reversal
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could move thin holiday trade
Asian low swept, London building higher lows below 1.4265.
A pre-London dip swept the 1.4251 asian low to a 1.4240 session low before reversing. The London rally has since printed higher lows near 1.4256 but stalled at the 1.4265 london high, with thin holiday liquidity (US, Canada, Japan out) keeping price below the 1.4273 weekly open.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 london high opens a retest of the 1.4273 weekly open
Loss of the 1.4256 higher low and a return below the 1.4251 asian low brings the 1.4240 session low back into play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone in thin holiday trade; 1.4298 friday high caps the upside structure
Pre-London sweep of Asian low reversed; London higher lows into 1.4265 cap.
The weekend gap from the 1.4273 weekly open filled in thin holiday Asia trade as softer US yields weighed on USD. A pre-London sweep through the 1.4251 Asian low to a 1.4240 session low reversed sharply. London has since printed a higher-lows trendline into a 1.4265 session high, and price is stalling at the 61.8% retrace of the open-to-low drop with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.42565, 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 session high opens the 1.4273 weekly open, with the 1.4298 Friday high (jobs spike) beyond
Loss of the 1.4257 higher low breaks the London higher-lows trendline and brings the 1.4251 Asian low back into focus
Break of the 1.4240 session low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low and reasserts the Asia-session drift
US and Canada holiday liquidity is thin; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read
08:47 UTC
Intraday recovery off sweep low, testing session high · RSI 64 · price 1.42637
Asian low swept pre-London, range reclaimed; higher lows since 06:30 UTC.
The weekend gap up to the 1.4273 weekly open filled during Asia. A pre-London push then swept the asian low to a 1.4240 sweep low before London open reversed it, reclaiming the 1.4251–1.4262 Asian range and stalling at the 1.4265 london high. Softer US yields weighed earlier, but trade is thin with US and Canada on holiday; RSI(14) is 64 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4262, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4265 london high exposes the 1.4273 weekly open, then Friday's 1.4298 jobs high
Slipping back below the 1.4262 asian high and the rally trendline would put price back inside the Asian range
The 50% of the london rally fib (~1.4252) sits on the asian low; losing it reopens the 1.4240 sweep low
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC; holiday-thin liquidity can exaggerate moves
08:32 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows since London open · RSI 58 · price 1.42628
False break below Asian low reversed; price testing Asian range top.
A pre-London dip broke below the Asian low at 1.4252 and reached a 1.4240 swing low. London open then reversed it into a chain of higher lows along the rebound line, and price is now pressing the Asian high at 1.4265. Trade is holiday-thin with the US and Canada out, and softer US yields are tempering the USD after the weekend open gap at 1.4273 was sold.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 Asian high clears the range top and exposes the 1.4273 open gap
A break of the rebound line and a close back below the 1.4252 Asian low returns focus to the 1.4240 swing low
Friday's post-jobs high at 1.4298 caps the range above the open gap
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone in thin holiday liquidity
A loss of the 50% rebound fib near 1.4252 would erode the London-session recovery
V-shaped recovery from a sweep below the Asian low, higher lows since London open.
Price swept below the Asian low at 1.4251 just before London open and printed a 1.4240 session low. The London rally from there has run back through the Asian high at 1.4262 and is testing the session high at 1.4265, with RSI(14) near 57. The weekly open at 1.4271 sits just above, and US and Canada holidays keep liquidity thin, with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.4262, 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4271, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4262 would mark the London push as a false break back into the Asian range
Close above the weekly open at 1.4271 opens the path toward the friday high at 1.4298, the post-jobs spike top
Loss of the rising lows line from 1.4240 and of the asian low at 1.4251, which is also the 50% of the London rally, would undo the rebound
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; holiday-thin US/Canada trade can exaggerate moves into the NY session
London open swept the Asian low, price reclaimed the 1.4251–1.4262 Asian range.
The weekly-open gap above Friday's 1.4254 close filled during Asia as softer US yields weighed on USD. London open then swept the 1.4251 Asian low to a 1.4240 session low and reclaimed it within the hour. Price is back mid-to-upper Asian range on flat EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 51, and US/Canada holidays keep liquidity thin.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4262 asian high opens the 1.4273 gap open area
Failure to hold 1.4251 asian low turns the false break into a range break back toward the 1.4240 session low
1.4298 jobs spike high from Friday's Canada payrolls print remains the session ceiling
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone in holiday-thin trade
False break below Asian low, reclaimed inside range.
Weekly gap open at 1.4273 faded through Asia into a 1.4251–1.4262 range, and early London dipped through the asian low to a 1.4240 london low before a sharp reclaim. Price at 1.4258 has retraced about 80% of that drop on the London drop fib in holiday-thin conditions, with US and Canada out and softer US yields capping USD.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4273
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 1.4251 turns the false break into a breakdown toward the 1.4240 london low
Close above the 1.4262 range high opens a retest of the 1.4273 gap open
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next USD headline risk; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
Asian range 1.4251–1.4262; pre-London false break below, reclaimed at London open.
The 1.4273 gap high from the weekly open faded in Asia on softer US yields. Price then held a thin 1.4251–1.4262 Asian range, with a pre-London false break to a 1.4240 session low. The London open reclaimed the asian low and retraced ~80% of the 06:00 UTC drop fib to a 1.4258 london high, leaving price mid-range on holiday-thin liquidity.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4262, 1.4273
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4251 asian low negates the false break and reopens the 1.4240 session low
M15 close above the 1.4262 asian high exposes the 1.4273 gap high
Rejection at the 1.4258 london high keeps the 06:00 UTC drop fib retracement capped
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin US/Canada holiday trade
Asian range 1.4251–1.4265 retaken after a failed break lower.
The weekend gap filled back to Friday's 1.4254 close in early Asia, then the pair held a 1.4251–1.4265 Asian range in holiday-thin trade, with the US and Canada out. Into London open it broke below the asian low to a 1.4240 session low, then reversed straight back to 1.4256. That recovers about 73% of the drop retrace from the 1.4262 swing high, and RSI is back at 49.
Support: 1.42507, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42618, 1.42649, 1.42732
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4251 asian low revives the break toward the 1.4240 session low
Acceptance above the 1.4262 swing high and the asia highs trendline reopens the 1.4265 asia high and the 1.4273 weekly open
Fed Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC; holiday-thin liquidity can exaggerate intraday swings
Asian range broken lower pre-London; lower highs since the weekly open.
The weekly-open gap from 1.4273 (asian high) filled in Asia, then price broke the 1.4251 asian low into the London open on softer US yields, with the 1.4240 session low holding twice. Price is now retesting the broken asian low from below, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian move. Lower highs remain intact.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4262, 1.4273
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4262 range top negates the range break and the lower-highs line
Rejection at the 1.4251 asian low / 38.2% fib keeps the breakdown structure in place
Loss of the 1.4240 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Asian high at 1.4273 caps any fuller retracement of the Asian move
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Iran headlines could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, extending below the Asian range · RSI 27 · price 1.42427
Weekly-open gap filled, Asian range low broken, lower highs since the open.
The weekly-open gap from 1.4273 has been fully filled. Price slid through Asia and broke the 1.4251 Asian low just before the London open, printing a session low at 1.4240. Softer US yields and Friday's fade from the 1.4298 post-jobs spike frame the move, and RSI(14) near 27 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4220, 1.4216
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4273
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4251 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the gap-fill drop at 1.4253, would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4240 session low exposes the 1.4220 round number and the 1.4216 Friday low
A recovery through the 1.4273 weekly open negates the gap-fill downtrend read
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC, and US yields remain the swing factor ahead of Wednesday's CPI and Macklem
Asian range broken to the downside, lower highs since the weekly open.
Selling ahead of London open broke the Asian low at 1.4251 from 06:00 UTC. That fully unwound the weekend gap and sent price to the 1.4240 prior high, which capped Friday before the jobs spike. RSI(14) at 24 is stretched, and lower highs since the weekly open frame the move as softer US yields weigh on the USD.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4220, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4262, 1.4273
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4251 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4240 prior high exposes the 1.4220 pre-jobs low, then 1.4200 psych
A move through the 1.4262 session high and the lower highs trendline, then the 1.4273 weekly open, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
06:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the open · RSI 32 · price 1.4250
Gap faded, Asian range broken lower into London open.
The weekend gap from the 1.4273 gap open was filled early in the Asia session as softer US yields weighed on USD. Asia then compressed under a falling trendline capped by the 1.4262 asian high. The last bar before London open broke the Asian floor to a 1.4250 session low, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 1.4250 session low extend the lower-low chain toward the 1.4240 pre-jobs high from Friday
Reclaiming the 1.4262 asian high and the falling trendline negates the lower-high read and puts the 1.4273 gap open back in focus
The 1.4298 jobs spike high from Friday's -68.3K Canadian print caps the wider intraday range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and crude moves on Iran headlines could shift the read during NY hours
06:03 UTC
Drifting lower, compressed at range floor · RSI 41 · price 1.42537
Monday gap filled; tight Asian range 1.4251–1.4262 under falling EMAs.
The weekly-open gap to 1.4273 was filled back to Friday's 1.4254 close within the first few hours. Since then Asia has held an 11-pip range of 1.4251–1.4262, with softer US yields offsetting oil-led CAD weakness. Price is back at the Asian low and session floor ahead of London open, below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~41, extending the slow fade of Friday's jobs spike toward 1.4300.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.4251 asian low and the 1.4250 round number extends the jobs spike fade toward the 1.4220 pre-jobs low
Recovery above the 1.4262 session high reopens the 1.4273 gap top, which sits near the 50% retrace of the jobs spike
London open is the first test of the tight 1.4251–1.4262 Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; oil and US yield headlines are the active drivers until Wednesday's Macklem speech and US CPI
05:47 UTC
Flat after Asia drop, higher lows forming · RSI 51 · price 1.42579
Tight 1.4251–1.4262 compression inside the Asian range.
Monday's gap above Friday's 1.4254 close was filled early in the Asia session, printing a session low at 1.4251 on softer US yields and sliding crude. Since then price has compressed in a 2.6-pip-ATR band. It shows higher lows at 1.4252 and 1.4256, and supply is capping the 1.4262 swing high near the 50% fib of the drop from the 1.4273 Asian high, with London open approaching.
Support: 1.42556, 1.42507
Resistance: 1.42618, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 swing high opens a retest of the 1.4273 Asian high
Break of the 1.4256 higher low and the 1.4251 session low ends the rising-lows read
London open expansion out of the sub-11-pip band could set the session direction
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; oil and US yield headlines are the active CAD/USD drivers
Weekly-open gap filled; late-Asia higher lows inside 1.4251–1.4262 range.
The weekly-open gap up to the 1.4273 gap top was filled within three hours as softer US yields weighed on USD, with the asian low printing at 1.4251. Late Asia session is building higher lows toward the 1.4262 session high, and the range is tight ahead of London open with ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.42556, 1.42507
Resistance: 1.42618, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 session high opens a move back toward the 1.4273 gap top
Break of the 1.4256 higher low, then the 1.4251 asian low, invalidates the higher-lows trendline read
Friday high at 1.4298 from the jobs-data spike remains the cap below the 1.4300 area
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and swings in US yields could shift this read during NY hours
05:17 UTC
Flat after gap fade, higher lows into range top · price 1.42595
Asian range 1.4251–1.4261 with rising lows pressing the session high.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4251
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4273, 1.4298
05:05 UTC
Range after gap fill, higher lows into late Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.42599
Weekly-open gap filled to 1.4251; higher lows pressing the asian high.
USD/CAD gapped about 17 pips higher at the weekly open to 1.4273. Softer US yields then faded the move, and the gap filled at the 1.4251 session low. Since then the Asia session has built higher lows off a 1.4256 range floor, and price is now pressing the 1.4261 asian high near the 38.2% retracement of the gap-fill leg, with ATR compressed at about 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.42556, 1.42507
Resistance: 1.42606, 1.42649, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 asian high opens the 61.8% / 1.4265 swing high, then the 1.4273 gap open
Break of the 1.4256 range floor and higher lows line puts the 1.4251 session low back in play
Price sits just under EMA50 (~1.4261); acceptance above it alongside the asian high break shifts the read from range to recovery
London open in ~2h is likely to expand the compressed ATR
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and yield moves could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after gap fill · RSI 53 · price 1.42575
Tight Asian range near the 50% retrace of Friday's jobs spike.
The weekly-open gap up to the 1.4273 gap high was fully filled overnight. Late Asia is holding a 10-pip range between the 1.4251 asian low and 1.4261 session high, right on the 50% retrace of Friday's jobs spike off the 1.4220 pre-data low toward the 1.4298 spike high. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR(14) is under 3 pips, compressed into London open as softer US yields offset a heavy CAD.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 session high reopens the 1.4273 gap high
Failure to hold the 1.4251 asian low exposes the 1.4220 pre-data low
Holding the 50% jobs spike fib keeps the 1.4298 spike high and 1.43 cap in view
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Iran headlines could shift this read
04:32 UTC
Drifting lower off Friday's jobs spike, flat in late Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.42557
Weekly-open gap filled; tight 1.4251–1.4261 range below a falling trendline.
The weekly open gapped up to 1.4273 but Asia filled it back to Friday's close. The Asian low at 1.4251 sits near the 61.8% retracement of Friday's jobs spike, with softer US yields capping USD and lower highs pressing price into a 1.4251–1.4261 range ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42507, 1.4233
Resistance: 1.42606, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4251 asian low breaks the 61.8% jobs spike fib and opens the 1.4233 pre-jobs base
Close above the 1.4261 micro high breaks the falling trendline and puts the 1.4273 weekly open back in play
1.4298 jobs high / 1.4300 cap stays out of reach unless 1.4273 is reclaimed
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and any oil or US yield moves could shift this read
Gap filled; tight Asian consolidation 1.4251–1.4261 under lower highs.
The weekly-open gap from 1.4273 was filled during the Asia session as easing US yields softened the dollar, with price printing a session low at 1.4251. Late Asia is now compressing in a 10-pip box below the 1.4261 swing high, holding beneath the lower-highs line and still inside the retrace of Friday's jobs high at 1.4298.
Support: 1.42507, 1.4233
Resistance: 1.42606, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 session low extends the post-gap slide toward the pre-jobs base near 1.4233
Close above the 1.4261 swing high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.4273 weekly open back in play
London open is likely to resolve the Asian range given the sub-3-pip ATR
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI and Macklem speech could reset the jobs high 1.4298 area
04:03 UTC
Mild downtrend, flattening in Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.4257
Lower highs off the weekly open, flat base at the Asian low.
Monday's opening gap to the 1.4273 weekly open fully faded as softer US yields weighed, with price now coiling in a tight band between the 1.4251 Asian low and the 1.4261 swing high on a descending trendline. Friday's jobs spike to 1.4298 has been retraced back below the 38.2% fib, and ATR near 3.5 pips reflects a quiet Asia session.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 swing high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 1.4273 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.4251 Asian low reopens the 1.4220 pre-jobs low
Reclaiming the 38.2% fib of the jobs spike near 1.4269 would shift the read back toward the 1.4298 high
London open is the first test of the Asian range; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC adds USD risk later in the day
03:47 UTC
Drifting lower off Friday's spike, now flat · RSI 48 · price 1.42563
Tight Asian range after weekend gap fill.
The weekly open gap at 1.4270 filled during the Asia session. Price is now compressed in a ~10-pip Asian range of 1.4251–1.4261, with the Asian low sitting on the 61.8% fib of Friday's jobs-driven rally from 1.4220 to the 1.4298 jobs spike. Softer US yields have kept the pair below the weekly open, even with crude weakness weighing on CAD.
Support: 1.42507, 1.42497, 1.42198
Resistance: 1.42606, 1.42703, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 asian low / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.4220 pre-jobs low
Recovery through the 1.4261 asian high and the 1.4270 weekly open breaks the post-spike drift lower
Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC and crude moves on Iran headlines could shift this read in NY hours
Lower highs since jobs spike; tight Asian range at lows.
Friday's spike to the 1.4298 jobs high on the -68.3K Canadian print has faded into a lower-highs sequence. The weekly-open gap was filled in early Asia as softer US yields weighed on the USD, and price is now compressing between the 1.4251 asian low and the 1.4261 session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
London open break of the 1.4251 asian low extends the lower-low chain; the next reference is the 1.4220 pre-jobs low
M15 close above the 1.4261 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4273 weekly open in play
Recovery through 1.4269 (38.2% of the post-jobs fade) would challenge the downtrend read; the 1.4298 jobs high caps below 1.4300
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the first scheduled USD risk; Macklem (Wed) and US CPI (Wed) carry larger event risk
03:17 UTC
Drifting lower, basing in Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.42579
Weekly-open gap filled; tight Asian range under lower highs.
Friday's spike to the 1.4298 jobs high on the -68.3K Canadian payrolls miss has been fully unwound. The weekly-open gap to 1.4273 was faded and filled in early Asia as softer US yields offset sliding crude, printing a 1.4251 low. Asia session has since compressed into a 4-pip-ATR 1.4251–1.4261 range under a lower-highs line, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4273 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.4251 gap fill low extends the jobs-spike fade toward the Friday low near 1.4206
London open is the first test of the Asian range; Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD leg
The 1.4298 jobs high and 1.4300 cap remain the upside reference on any USD repricing
Lower highs since weekly open, basing 1.4251–1.4258.
The weekly-open gap to the 1.4273 weekly open filled within the first hour. Asia session has since printed lower highs and is basing at the 1.4251 asian low, which sits on the 61.8% jobs spike fib, while price coils just under the 50% retrace near 1.4259 with RSI(14) neutral. Softer US yields are offsetting the CAD drag from crude and Friday's -68.3K jobs miss.
Support: 1.42507, 1.42198
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 swing high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.4273 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.4251 asian low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 1.4220 pre-jobs low
London open in about 4h is the likely catalyst to break the tight Asian range
Jobs high at 1.4298 marks the 1.4300 cap; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, fading off jobs-spike high · RSI 37 · price 1.42529
Lower highs from 1.4298; weekend gap filled, pressing session low.
USD/CAD has faded steadily from Friday's 1.4298 jobs-shock spike. Monday's gap up from the 1.4273 weekly open was filled during the Asia session as softer US yields weighed on the USD. Price is pinned just above the 1.4251 session low, with lower highs at 1.4265 (swing high) and 1.4258 capping, both EMAs overhead and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.42507, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42575, 1.42649, 1.42732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4258 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4265 swing high back in play
Sustained trade below the 1.4251 session low extends the spike fade toward the 1.4240 pre-data top
Reclaim of the 1.4273 weekly open would reverse the gap fill and negate the fade read
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled USD-side risk
Lower highs since Friday's post-LFS spike; Asian range compressing above 1.4251.
The Asia session opened with a 16-pip gap up to the 1.4273 gap open, and the gap was fully filled by 00:00 UTC. That extended Friday's post-LFS fade from the near-1.4298 spike that followed the -68.3K Canadian jobs miss. Price now sits just above the 1.4251 Asia low under a sequence of lower highs at 1.4265 (swing high) and 1.4257 (lower high), with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4257, 1.4265, 1.4273
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4251 Asia low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 1.4220 pre-lfs base in view
A close above the 1.4257 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday lower-highs sequence; 1.4265 swing high is next
Reclaiming the 1.4273 gap open would put the 38.2% retrace of the post-lfs fade near 1.4269 back in play
BoC Macklem speaks Tue 06:05 UTC: first read on the jobs miss and a likely volatility catalyst for CAD
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC could shift the USD leg
Lower highs since 1.4298 spike; Asia gap filled, trading near Asian low.
The Asia session opened with a gap up to 1.4273 that was filled within the first hour. Price then slipped through Friday's close to an Asian low of 1.4251, capped by a lower high at 1.4265. The move extends the fade from Friday's CAD jobs spike high at 1.4298, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 4 pips in thin trade.
Support: 1.42507, 1.4226
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4265 lower high breaks the Asian lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.4273 gap open
Failure to hold the 1.4251 Asian low exposes the 1.4226 pre-jobs base
Reclaiming the jobs high at 1.4298 would put the 1.43 resistance back in play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Macklem on Tuesday could materially shift this read
Monday gap filled; lower highs compressing into the Asia low.
The Asia session gap up to the 1.4273 gap open was sold straight back into Friday's close. Price is now basing at the 1.4251 asia low, just above the 61.8% retrace (1.4250) of Friday's LFS jobs move into the 1.4298 lfs spike high. Lower highs at 1.4273 and 1.4265 cap the drift, RSI(14) is near 43 and ATR is about 4 pips in thin Monday trade.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 asia low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.4240 pre-lfs high
Recovery above the 1.4265 lower high and 1.4273 gap open negates the post-gap lower-high sequence
1.4298 lfs spike high marks the 1.43 failure point; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC are the next scheduled risks
01:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 29 · price 1.42523
Lower-high/lower-low chain; weekend gap filled, price on 50% retrace of the jobs spike.
Friday's post-jobs spike to the 1.4298 spike high has fully unwound. Asia opened with a gap high at 1.4273, filled it, and stepped down through a lower high at 1.4265 to 1.4251, sitting on the 1.4250 round number and the 50% retrace of the jobs spike. RSI(14) near 29 and ATR ~5 pips show a slow, thin Asian grind with no reversal structure yet.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4240 pre-jobs top, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace
Failure there exposes the 1.4220 spike base, where Friday's move began
Close above the lower-high line and 1.4265 breaks the Asia downtrend; the 1.4273 gap high is next
London open in ~6h typically expands this tight Asian range
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts for the 1.4298 spike high area
USDCAD has handed back most of Friday's spike to 1.4298 on the -68.3K Canada jobs shock. Early Asia filled the weekend gap from 1.4273 and printed a fresh asia low at 1.4252 under a lower-high sequence. RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR is about 4 pips as thin Monday flow keeps ranges tight.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4252 asia low and the 1.4250 handle exposes the 1.4240 pre-lfs high, then the 1.4220 pre-lfs low
Recovery above the 1.4265 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 1.4273 weekend gap back in play; the spike retrace 50% sits near 1.4275
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Tue 06:05 UTC) are the next scheduled risks to this read
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove the jobs spike to 1.4298, and NY hours faded it back to 1.4254. Monday's Asia session opened with a gap up to 1.4273, but the gap open was sold and a lower-high sequence (1.4273, 1.4265) carried price back to the 1.4252 gap fill, with RSI(14) at 34 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 gap fill exposes the 1.4240 pre-data hi, then the 1.4220 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4265 lower high breaks the descending trendline and invalidates the Asia lower-high chain
Retake of the 1.4273 gap open puts the 1.4298 jobs spike high back in view
BoC Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC are the next scheduled risks for CAD and USD
00:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since open · RSI 38 · price 1.42548
Weekend gap filled, lower-high chain into session low.
The Asia session open gapped up to a 1.4273 gap high, then sold off through Friday's 1.4254 close. That left a lower-high chain capped at 1.4265 and a 1.4252 session low. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib retrace of Friday's jobs spike, which topped at the 1.4298 spike high, with CAD still carrying the -68.3K jobs miss.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4250, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 61.8% fib exposes Friday's pre-spike prior high at 1.4240
Reclaim of the 1.4265 lower high breaks the descending chain and puts the 1.4273 gap high back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity; ATR near 4 pips keeps moves small until London
BoC's Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the next CAD catalyst for this read
Lower highs since the 1.4298 spike, weekend gap filled.
Over half of Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs spike (1.4220→1.4298 lfs high) has been retraced through a chain of lower highs, with price now between the 50% and 61.8% fib. Sunday's ~16-pip gap open at the 1.4273 gap high has already filled back to Friday's close. Early Asia session printed a fresh session low at 1.4252, with the 1.4265 swing high capping the bounce.
Support: 1.4252, 1.42497, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42732, 1.42982
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4252 session low and the 1.4250 61.8% fib exposes the pre-lfs high at 1.4240
A close back above the 1.4265 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence; reclaiming the 1.4273 gap high negates the gap fill
BoC's Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the first read on the jobs miss and could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the main USD risk inside the next sessions