18:38 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 18-month high · RSI 64 · price 1.4287
Higher highs and higher lows since the Jan 2026 low; broke out of the 2025–H1 2026 range.
USDCAD spent Q2 2025 through Q2 2026 range-bound between 1.348 and the 1.414 range top, then broke out in June. It has since printed higher lows at 1.3550 (Apr) and 1.3732 (Aug) along a rising-lows trendline. Price has cleared the June high at 1.4248 and is pressing the 1.4300 area, the 18m high. Fed-BoC policy divergence and last week's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove the latest leg. W1 EMA(50) near 1.3930 is rising with price well above it, while RSI(14) at 64 sits short of an extreme.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4140, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.4300, 1.4400
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above the 1.4300 18m high opens the path to the 1.4400 round number
- A weekly close back below the 1.4248 june high would turn the breakout into a false break and leave a double top at 1.43
- A drop through the 1.4140 range top and the rising-lows trendline toward the W1 ema50 near 1.3930 would neutralise the uptrend regime; the 38.2% of the Jan–Oct swing sits near 1.3986
- US CPI (Wed Oct 14) and BoC Gov. Macklem (Wed/Fri) could materially shift this read; Canada CPI follows Mon Oct 19