19:05 UTC
Uptrend, rejected at 1.43 · RSI 60 · price 1.41906
Higher highs and higher lows since the Jan 2026 low; upper boundary capping near 1.43.
USDCAD has been in an uptrend since the January low at 1.3481. Higher lows printed in April and August, and higher highs at the 1.4248 june high and this week's 1.4299 cycle high. Price holds above a rising W1 EMA(50) near 1.3927 (ema50), so the macro structure is intact. This week's bar rejected the 1.43 area and closed as a bearish engulfing near 1.4190, as USD slid on dovish Fed-speak and CAD drew support from firmer oil and narrower spreads. The 2025 high at 1.4140 is the first support below, with the 1.40 psych level aligned with the 38.2% of the jan-oct fib.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4000, 1.3927
Resistance: 1.4299, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 2025 high at 1.4140 opens the 1.40 psych / 38.2% retracement zone
- A weekly close above the 1.4299 cycle high breaks the multi-quarter cap and extends the uptrend
- A failed retest of 1.4299 after the june high at 1.4248 would leave a double top in play
- A break of the higher-lows trendline (~1.3830), the ema50 and the Aug low at 1.3732 would end the uptrend read
- Canada Sep CPI on Mon Oct 19 and the BoC decision on Oct 28 could materially shift this read