Lower highs from 1.4173 and 1.4164, late-NY retest of the 1.4134 session low.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4198 Asian high through London as lower yields kept USD heavy. NY spiked to a 1.4134 session low after the NY high at 1.4173. The bounce stalled at the 1.4164 swing high, and price faded into the Friday close to retest the session low, back inside the ~1.4140 fair-value area. The former London low at 1.4145 now caps price.
Support: 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.41643, 1.41728
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4134 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4145 london low, then the falling trendline near 1.4164 swing high, breaks the lower-high chain
Weekend gap risk at the open; Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) could materially shift this read
Break above the 1.4173 ny high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · price 1.41389
LH/LL chain below the Asian range; late NY retesting the day low.
London broke below the Asian range; late-NY lower high now retesting the 1.4134 low.
London broke below the 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range and stepped lower through the day. Falling US yields and a firm CAD pushed NY to a 1.4134 low. The rebound stalled at the 1.4164 swing high, extending the chain of lower highs, and late NY has faded back below the 1.4145 London low to retest the NY low, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4134 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4100 round number
Recovery above the 1.4145 London low and through the lower-highs trendline near the 1.4164 swing high would neutralise the downtrend read
Weekly close is under an hour away. Thin late-Friday liquidity and IMF weekend headlines raise gap risk
Canada Sep CPI on Mon 12:30 GMT is the next scheduled catalyst for this structure
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY fade · RSI 36 · price 1.41436
Lower highs from Asia, retesting London low.
London broke the 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range lower and NY extended to a 1.4134 ny low, with CAD firmed by softer Treasury yields and firmer oil. The bounce stalled at a 1.4164 lower high near the 78.6% of the drop from the 1.4173 swing high and at the descending trendline. Price has faded after London close and is now pressing just under the 1.4145 london low.
Support: 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4164, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4164 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4134 ny low confirms a fresh lower low into the weekly close
Holding below the 1.4145 london low turns it into a cap on any late-session bounce
Weekend IMF headlines and Monday's Canada CPI carry gap risk for this read
Lower highs since 1.4164 rebound high, pressing London low.
USD/CAD broke below the 1.4171 Asian range low in London. The NY drop from the 1.4173 ny open high printed a 1.4134 session low as softer US yields and firmer oil weighed on the dollar. The bounce met rejection at the 1.4164 rebound high, and late-NY lower highs have price back on the 1.4145 London low, with RSI(14) near 38 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.41643, 1.41728
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4145 London low exposes the 1.4134 session low
Recovery above the 1.4164 rebound high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 1.4173 ny open high sits above
Friday close into thin liquidity: IMF weekend headlines and Monday's Canada CPI (12:30 GMT) could open the week with a gap
Lower highs from 1.4173; late NY drifting back from the 1.4164 lower high toward the late NY low.
London broke below the 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range. NY extended to a 1.4134 day low as a softer USD and firm oil kept CAD bid, but the rebound stalled at 1.4164, a lower high under the 1.4173 NY open high. Into the Friday close, price is slipping back toward the 1.4148 late NY low, with RSI(14) at 44 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4134 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4164 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 1.4173 NY open high in play
Rejection at 1.4164 held so far; a hold above the 1.4148 late ny low keeps price mid-rebound on the fib
Weekend IMF headlines and Monday's Canada CPI (12:30 GMT) could gap or materially shift this read at the open
Lower highs from 1.4164 after 1.4134 day low; Asian range broken lower.
USD/CAD broke the 1.4171 asian low at London open and slid to a 1.4134 day low in the NY session. Lower Treasury yields and firmer oil outweighed US industrial production and import price beats. The rebound was rejected twice at the 1.4164 rebound high, and late-Friday trade is back under the ema20 near the 1.4148 late low, the 50% of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4171
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4148 late low and 1.4145 london low (61.8% of the rebound fib) exposes the 1.4134 day low
M15 close above the lower highs trendline and 1.4164 rebound high puts the 1.4171 asian low back in play
Thin liquidity into the weekly close; Canada Sep CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the next event that could reset the read
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound fading · RSI 49 · price 1.41532
Lower highs below 1.4164 after NY-open low at 1.4134.
USDCAD printed the ny low at 1.4134 in the first hour of NY as falling US yields weighed on the dollar. The rebound stalled at the 1.4164 rebound high, just under the 50% of the Asia-high fib, and late NY has carved lower highs back below the EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 49. The london low at 1.4145 is the nearest reference below.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.41643, 1.41728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 rebound high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4173 london high in play
Failure to hold the 1.4145 london low reopens the 1.4134 ny low
Thin late-Friday liquidity after London close; the pending US Budget Statement is the only scheduled print left today
Canada CPI on Monday at 12:30 UTC, with core vs ~1.9% the swing factor
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY pause · RSI 49 · price 1.4156
Lower highs from the Asian high; rebound off the session low capped at 1.4164.
London broke the 1.4171 Asian low, and NY extended the slide to a 1.4134 session low as a soft USD and firmer oil lifted CAD. The rebound was rejected at 1.4164, just under the 50% fib and the descending trendline. Price is now coiling on a 1.4155 range floor after London close, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4172, 1.4187
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4155 range floor exposes the 1.4145 London low and the 1.4134 session low
Close above the 1.4164 rebound high and the descending trendline opens the 1.4172 Asian low, then the 1.4187 lower high
Thin pre-weekend liquidity and IMF headlines Oct 17–18 could distort late-Friday prints
Lower highs from the Asian high; rising lows off a 1.4134 double bottom.
The 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range gave way in London. NY extended the slide to a 1.4134 session low, a double bottom at the two-week CAD high, as a soft USD and firmer oil lifted the loonie. The late-NY rebound has retraced 50% of the London-NY leg on rising lows but is stalling at the 1.4164 rebound high, pinned against the EMA50 near 1.4160.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4143, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4173, 1.4198
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 rebound high opens the 1.4173 NY high, the last lower high of the selloff
Loss of the 1.4155 higher low breaks the rebound support trendline and exposes the 1.4143 swing low
Failure at 1.4134 session low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
Thin post-London liquidity into the weekly close; weekend IMF headlines and Monday's Canada CPI could gap this read
Lower highs from 1.4198; post-sweep range 1.4155–1.4164.
London broke the 1.4171 Asian low, and the NY open pushed through the 1.4145 London low to a 1.4134 day low as soft USD lifted CAD to two-week highs. The 27-pip rebound has stalled after London close in a 1.4155–1.4164 range. The range top sits just under the EMA50 and the 50% retracement of the day's drop near 1.4166, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4171
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4164 range top and the 50% day fib reopens 1.4171, the old Asian low
Failure to hold 1.4155 range low exposes the 1.4145 London low and the 1.4134 day low
Thin late-Friday NY hours; Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce from NY low · RSI 55 · price 1.41601
Lower highs from Asian high; higher lows since session low, capped at 1.4164.
USD/CAD fell from the Asian session high at 1.4198 through London to a session low at 1.4134 in early NY, with falling Treasury yields keeping USD offered. The late-NY rebound has reclaimed the London low and the 38.2% fib of the decline. Higher lows are forming, but the rebound high at 1.4164 has capped twice and price is stalling near EMA50.
Support: 1.41554, 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.41643, 1.41728
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4164 rebound high opens the 1.4173 lower high, near the 61.8% fib of the decline
Break of the 1.4155 higher low snaps the higher-low line and puts the London low at 1.4145 and the session low at 1.4134 back in play
Friday late-NY liquidity is thinning; Canada Sep CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for this read
Lower highs and lower lows from Asia into NY, now higher lows off 1.4134.
London broke below the 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 1.4134 day low as the softer USD and lower yields weighed. Price has since put in a higher-low chain, retracing over 61.8% of the 1.4173–1.4134 NY drop, but is stalling at the 1.4164 bounce high around the EMA50.
Support: 1.41554, 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.41643, 1.41728, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 bounce high opens the 1.4173 swing high
Loss of the 1.4155 higher low breaks the rebound line and exposes the 1.4145 london low, then the 1.4134 day low
Thin Friday liquidity after London close; US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is the only near-term scheduled risk, with Canada CPI not until Mon 12:30 UTC
Lower highs from Asian high; double bottom at 1.4134 with a higher low at 1.4143.
USD/CAD broke the Asian low near 1.4172 in London and hit a 1.4134 session low after the NY open, as softer US yields weighed on the dollar. Two holds there formed a double bottom and a higher low at 1.4143. The late-NY bounce to 1.4164 was rejected at the falling trendline from the Asian high, with price at the 38.2% fib of the session drop and pinned under EMA50.
Support: 1.41554, 1.41428, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.41643, 1.41715, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 bounce high and falling trendline opens the 1.4172 asian low, near the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 1.4155 pullback low exposes the 1.4143 higher low and the 1.4134 session low
Only a reclaim of the 1.4198 asian high would unwind the session decline
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC in thin pre-weekend trade; Monday's Canada CPI is the larger risk
Lower highs from Asian peak; rebound capped at descending line.
Lower highs since the Asian peak near 1.4198 as softer US yields weighed on USD; NY flushed through the 1.4145 prior low to a 1.4134 session low before recovering it. The bounce stalled at the 1.4164 swing high, at the descending line and the 78.6% of the 1.4173 ny high to 1.4134 drop, and is now holding the 61.8% near 1.4158.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4164 swing high and the descending line exposes the 1.4173 ny high and breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of 1.4145 prior low reopens the 1.4134 session low
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC into thin Friday close; Canada CPI Monday can reset the read
Lower highs intact since Asia; post-NY bounce testing falling trendline.
Lower highs from the 1.4198 Asian high fed a NY sell-off to a 1.4134 session low, as softer Treasury yields kept USD heavy. After London close, price reclaimed the 61.8% fib of the sell-off at 1.4158. It is now pressing the 1.4161 bounce high just under the falling trendline near 1.4165, with RSI(14) back at a neutral 55.
Support: 1.4158, 1.4146, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4161, 1.4165, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline and the 1.4173 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the fib 61.8 at 1.4158 and the 1.4146 london low puts the 1.4134 session low back in play
Thin post-London liquidity into the weekend; US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is a low-impact headline risk
Lower highs from 1.4187; NY low 1.4134, retracement into 1.4160s.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the Asia session. London extended the slide to the 1.4145 london low, and NY broke through to a 1.4134 session low as softer US yields weighed on the dollar. The bounce from that low stalled at 1.4161, the bounce high, which sits near the 61.8% fib of the 1.4173–1.4134 leg and is a retest of the London breakdown area, with price holding above the ema20 near 1.4152.
Support: 1.4152, 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4161, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4173 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Rejection at the 1.4161 bounce high and a slip back below the ema20 puts the 1.4145 london low back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4134 session low extends the downtrend toward 2+ week lows
Weekend IMF headlines and Monday's Canada CPI could gap or reset this read
Lower highs from 1.4187; bounce off 1.4134 testing 61.8% fib.
London broke below the Asian range low at 1.4171, and NY extended the lower-high sequence to a 1.4134 day low as softer US yields weighed on USD. The late-NY bounce has stalled at the 61.8% fib near 1.4158, still under the falling trendline from the 1.4187 lower high and the 1.4173 NY high.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4158, 1.4173, 1.4187
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4173 NY high breaks the trendline and the lower-high chain
Rejection at the 61.8% fib keeps the 1.4145 london low and 1.4134 day low in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4134 day low confirms a fresh lower-low
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin post-London-close liquidity could distort this read
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off NY low · RSI 45 · price 1.41562
Lower-high chain intact from the 1.4198 asia high; NY low 1.4134 holding, price retracing into the 61.8% zone.
Steady sell-off from 1.4202 broke the 1.4145 london low in NY hours and printed a 1.4134 ny low, a 2+ week low as softer UST yields weighed on the USD. Price has since bounced about 22 pips to 1.4156 into the 61.8% retrace of the 1.4173–1.4134 leg. The lower highs at 1.4198 (asia high), 1.4187 and 1.4173 remain unbroken.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4173, 1.4198
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4173 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4145 london low re-exposes the 1.4134 ny low
Rejection at the 61.8% retrace near 1.4158 keeps the downtrend sequence intact
A recovery through the 1.4198 asia high would undo the session's decline
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; weekend IMF Fed commentary is gap risk into Monday
Lower highs from the Asian range; small higher lows off 1.4134.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4171, and a NY rebound stalled there at 1.4173. A fresh leg then printed a 1.4134 session low as softer US yields weighed on USD. Price is now basing around the 1.4140 fair value area, with the late-NY bounce capped at 1.4148, the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4148, 1.4153, 1.4171
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4153 50% fib of the NY drop weakens the lower-high sequence and opens a retest of the 1.4171 asian low
A break of the 1.4134 session low extends the lower-low chain below 1.4140 fair value
Repeated rejection at the 1.4148 bounce high keeps the NY drop structure intact
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the weekly close could shift the read in thin late-Friday trade
Weekend IMF Fed commentary is a gap risk for the Monday open
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off NY low · RSI 46 · price 1.41468
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, London and NY; NY swept the London low.
Soft USD and narrowing US-CA spreads kept the pair stepping lower from the Asia high near 1.4198, with a lower high at 1.4187 and another at the 1.4173 NY high. The NY slide swept the london low at 1.4145 down to the 1.4134 ny low, and late NY price is back at 1.4147, near the 38.2% fib of that drop. RSI(14) is near 46 and price sits under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4153, 1.4173, 1.4187
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4134 ny low extends the lower-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.4145 london low turns the sweep into continuation
Move through the 1.4153 fib 50% toward the 1.4173 ny high tests the descending lower-high trendline
Break above the 1.4187 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is usually low impact, and post-London-close liquidity is thinning
Lower highs and lower lows, Asian range broken lower.
USDCAD has printed lower highs all day. London broke the Asian range low near 1.4171, and the NY open extended the slide to a 1.4134 session low as the soft USD tone held. Price is basing just under the former 1.4145 london low, with RSI(14) near 40 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4173
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.4145 london low brings the 1.4153 50% level of the ny drop fib into play
M15 close above the 1.4173 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4134 session low exposes the 1.4100 round number
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is the only scheduled US event before the weekly close, typically low impact
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 41 · price 1.41399
Lower highs, lower lows; Asian range and London low broken.
The pair slipped through the 1.4171 Asian range low and ground lower through the London session. The first hour of NY then took out the 1.4145 London low and set a session low at 1.4134, as softer US yields and a firm CAD after Macklem's hawkish tilt kept pressure on. The pace has slowed since, with price holding just above 1.4134, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4145 london low, which sits near the 38.2% fib, would mark the NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4134 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4100 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4173 swing high invalidates the intraday lower-high sequence
Weekly close and the 18:00 UTC US Budget Statement could shift late-session USD flows
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, broken Asian low retested.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.4171. The NY bounce stalled at 1.4173 as a retest of the broken asian low, then a second NY leg cleared the 1.4145 london low and printed a session low at 1.4136 as soft USD and firm oil kept the pair offered. RSI(14) is near 34, heavy but not oversold.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.41728
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4145 london low would turn the latest break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4136 session low exposes the 1.4100 round number
Break above the lower highs trendline and the 1.4173 asian low negates the lower-high chain
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC lands into thin Friday-close liquidity; Monday's Canada CPI is weekend gap risk
LH/LL sequence; early-NY breakdown below the London low.
Supply capped the bounce at a 1.4173 lower high, below the 1.4187 swing high from after the 03:45 UTC flush. Early NY then broke through the 1.4145 prior low from the London session to a fresh session low at 1.4138. USD softness on falling yields keeps the LH/LL chain intact, with price now sitting near the 1.4140 fair-value area flagged in the digest.
Support: 1.4138, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4173, 1.4187
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4145 prior low would turn the breakdown into a false break
A move above the 1.4173 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the LH sequence
Acceptance below the 1.4138 session low opens the 1.4100 round number
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Friday weekly-close positioning ahead of Monday's Canada CPI could shift this read
LH/LL chain; NY open bounce rejected, new session low.
London extended the slide from the 1.4187 pre-london high down to 1.4145. The NY open bounce was rejected at 1.4173 (ny high), and price broke the london low to a fresh session low at 1.4141 as softer USD and firm oil weighed; RSI(14) near 38, not oversold.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4173, 1.4187
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4145 london low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4141 session low (≈1.4140 fair value cited in the CAD read) extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4100 round number
Close above the 1.4173 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.4187 pre-london high is the next cap
US Budget Statement 18:00 UTC, Treasury yields and oil remain the near-term drivers
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session lows in early NY · RSI 38 · price 1.41425
Lower highs and lower lows since 06:00 UTC; NY bounce rejected below broken Asian low.
USD/CAD broke the 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range lower into London and ground down to 1.4145. The early-NY bounce retested the broken Asian low and was rejected at 1.4173, setting a lower high. The 13:30 UTC leg then cut through 1.4145 to a 1.4141 session low as the soft-USD, falling-yield backdrop and firm oil outweighed hot US industrial production data.
Support: 1.41409, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.41728
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4145 broken low would mark the NY break as a false break
Close above the 1.4173 lower high and the lower highs trendline ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4141 session low puts the 1.4100 round number in play
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; calendar is otherwise thin, so yields, risk sentiment and oil remain the drivers
Lower highs from 1.4187, bounce stalling below 1.4173 at the 61.8% fib.
USDCAD broke the Asian range low near 1.4171 and ground down through London to a 1.4145 session low on the soft USD and firm oil. A bounce into the first hour of NY met rejection at the 1.4173 bounce high, near the 61.8% fib, and price now holds the 50% level around 1.4166 above a 1.4163 pullback low.
Support: 1.41626, 1.4145
Resistance: 1.41728, 1.41867
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4173 bounce high reopens the 1.4187 swing high and negates the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4163 pullback low breaks the rising support and points back to the 1.4145 session low
Thin calendar today; weekend IMF Fed-speak and Monday's Canada CPI are the next event risks
13:31 UTC
London downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.41667
Lower highs to 1.4145 low, falling trendline broken, lower high capped at 1.4173.
London ground lower from the 1.4187 lower high to a 1.4145 day low as the soft USD tone extended. The London-NY transition bounce broke the falling trendline but was rejected at the 1.4173 NY high, just past the 61.8% fib, and price now sits on the 50% fib near the 1.4163 pullback low with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.4163, 1.4145
Resistance: 1.4173, 1.4187, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4173 NY high reopens the 1.4187 lower high and 1.4200 psych
Failure to hold the 1.4163 pullback low puts the 1.4145 day low back in play
US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC) reaction is still forming in the current bar and could shift this read
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce testing broken support · RSI 58 · price 1.41689
London broke below the Asian low to a 1.4145 session low; NY open bounce cleared the London downtrend line and is retesting the Asian low from below.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4171 and extended to a 1.4145 session low. The NY open bounce, about 28 pips, cleared the London downtrend line and is stalling at the broken Asian low, where the 61.8% retrace of the London leg fib and EMA50 converge. The soft USD tone from falling yields and dovish Fed commentary frames the London slide.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4145
Resistance: 1.4171, 1.4187, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4173 reclaims the asian low and exposes the 1.4187 swing high, then the 1.4200 round number
Rejection at the asian low followed by a break back below 1.4160, the 38.2% fib, puts the 1.4145 session low back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce in progress · RSI 57 · price 1.41689
London lower-low chain off the Asian range; corrective rebound now retesting the broken Asian low.
London broke the 1.4171 Asian low and ground down to a 1.4145 session low before a soft-USD NY open bounce of roughly 26 pips. Price is now retesting the Asian low from below, where the 61.8% fib of the London leg and EMA50 cluster, with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4145
Resistance: 1.4171, 1.4187, 1.4200
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4171 asian low opens the 1.4187 swing high and the 1.4200 round number
Rejection at 1.4171 and a break of the 1.4160 nyopen base re-exposes the 1.4145 session low
London lower-high chain broken by early-NY bounce; retesting broken shelf.
London broke the 1.4171 Asian low and ground lower in a lower-high chain to a 1.4145 session low at 11:45 UTC, extending the soft-USD slide on falling yields. The London-NY transition brought an 18-pip bounce through the descending trendline. Price is now testing the 1.4167 london shelf near the 50% retrace of the London decline, with RSI(14) back to 54.
Support: 1.4157, 1.4145
Resistance: 1.4167, 1.4171
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4171 asian low, which aligns with the 61.8% retrace, breaks the London lower-high chain
Slip back below the ema20 near 1.4157 turns the bounce into a failed retest
Break of the 1.4145 session low resumes the London downtrend
Lower-high chain through London, trendline broken on 12:00 UTC bar.
USD softness after Warsh's speech knocked the pair to 1.4171, and London extended the slide below that Asian low to a 1.4145 session low. A 10-pip bar in early NY broke the London trendline and is retesting the 1.4162 prior pivot at the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4162, 1.4171, 1.4187
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4162 prior pivot followed by a break of the 1.4145 session low would extend the lower-low chain toward the 1.4100 round number
An M15 close above the 1.4171 asian low (61.8% retrace) breaks the London lower-high sequence and opens the 1.4187 swing high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact into NY · RSI 34 · price 1.41502
London broke below the Asian range; LH/LL chain since 07:00 UTC.
USDCAD first dropped on the Warsh IMF speech at 03:45 UTC. London then broke the Asian low near 1.4171 as broad USD softness persisted, and every bounce since has printed a lower high, down to a session low at 1.4145. Price is pressing the falling trendline heading into the NY open. RSI(14) sits near 34 and the swing high at 1.4155 is the first cap overhead.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41552, 1.4171, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4155 swing high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
A move back above the 1.4171 asian low, also the fib 50% zone, would turn the London range break into a false break, with the 1.4198 asian high as the range top
Failure to hold the 1.4145 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.4100 round number the next reference
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian low; LH/LL chain, shallow bounce off session low.
London took out the Asian low at 1.41708 and the London leg ran to a 1.41485 session low on broad USD softness and lower yields. Every bounce has printed a lower high. The latest swing high at 1.41552 is capping late-London price, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.41485
Resistance: 1.41552, 1.41619, 1.41708
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41552 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; 1.41619 lower high and the downtrend line sit next
Failure to hold the 1.41485 session low extends the London leg lower-low sequence
Retracement back to the 1.41708 asian low (near 61.8% of the London leg) would test the broken range as resistance
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, during NY hours, could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since Asian range break; price pressing descending trendline.
The Warsh-driven drop to 1.4171 set the Asian low. London then broke the 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range lower at the open, with lower highs stepping down from the 1.4187 swing high to a 1.4149 session low as UST yields slid. RSI(14) sits near 33 and price is now pressing the descending trendline as the London leg stalls.
Support: 1.41485
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41708, 1.41867
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.4162 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain
Reclaim of the 1.4171 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range; the 1.4187 swing high caps above
Failure to hold the 1.4149 session low extends the London leg
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; recent US beats have been faded
Lower highs and lower lows since 05:45 UTC, below Asian range.
Falling US yields and a soft USD pushed the pair through the Asian low at 1.4171 in the London session, with a stepped chain of lower highs from the 1.4187 swing high. Price is now flat in late London just above the 1.4149 session low, near the 1.4150 psych level, with RSI(14) near 34, not oversold.
Support: 1.41485
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41708, 1.41867
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4149 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.4162 breakdown shelf, near the 38.2% fib, and a break of the descending trendline would mark the slide stalling
Return above the 1.4171 Asian low would undo the London range break
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, steady lower highs through London · RSI 28 · price 1.41509
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain intact.
The post-Warsh drop at 03:45 UTC set the Asian low at 1.4171, and London broke it at the open. Price has since ground lower in a clean lower-high chain from the 1.4187 swing high to a session low at 1.4149, with soft USD and falling yields behind the move. RSI(14) near 28 is stretched but not extreme into late London, with the 1.4162 lower high capping the descending trendline.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4162, 1.4171, 1.4187
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4162 lower high and descending trendline breaks the London LH chain; 38.2% fib of the decline sits at the same area
Reclaim of the 1.4171 Asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4149 session low keeps the path open toward the 1.4100 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands in early NY session and could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4170 and yesterday's NY low, printing a session low at 1.4151 as lower highs step down from the post-Warsh bounce to the 1.4187 lower high. Falling UST yields keep USD soft. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme, and the 1.4150 psych level is now being tested.
Support: 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4162, 1.4170, 1.4187
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4162 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.4170 asian low puts price back inside the overnight range
Failure to hold 1.4150 psych extends the London leg lower
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read into the NY open
Lower highs and lower lows below the post-Warsh Asian range.
Falling Treasury yields keep USD on the back foot. Price broke below the 1.4171 Warsh low at London open and has posted a session low at 1.41555. A descending trendline from the 1.4186 Asian high caps each bounce, and RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.41555, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41708
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.4162 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.41555 session low exposes the 1.4150 round number, the channel bottom cited in the digest
Reclaim of the 1.4171 Warsh low, the 50% level of the London leg fib, would turn the London break into a false break
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC could shift this read in the first hours of NY
London broke the Asian low; lower-high/lower-low chain into session low.
USD/CAD extended the post-Warsh slide as lower US yields weigh on USD, and London open broke the Asian low at 1.4170 to print a session low at 1.4155. Each bounce has stalled at a lower high, the latest at 1.4162, under a falling trendline from the 1.4187 swing high, with RSI(14) near 30 and the 1.4150 round number just below.
Support: 1.41555, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4162, 1.4170, 1.41867
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4170 asian low would undo the London range break
Break below the 1.4155 session low and the 1.4150 round number extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.4162 lower high and the trendline would break the London leg's lower-high sequence; 1.4187 swing high caps above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 26 · price 1.41564
LH/LL chain below the broken Asian range and Thursday low.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.4171 and Thursday's 1.4169 prior low, extending to a 1.4156 session low as falling US yields keep USD heavy. The London leg from the 1.4187 swing high is printing lower highs, with sellers capping each bounce near 1.4168. RSI(14) at 26 is stretched but short of a sub-20 extreme.
Support: 1.41559, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41678, 1.4170, 1.41867
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4170 prior low would turn the London break into a false break
Loss of 1.4156 session low exposes the 1.4150 round number, the CAD channel-bottom area
Reclaim of the 1.4187 swing high negates the London leg lower
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 24 · price 1.41612
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain from 1.4187.
London took out the Asian range low at 1.4171 and yesterday's 1.4169 trough. Each bounce has printed a lower high since the 1.4187 swing high, with a fresh session low at 1.4161 as USD stays heavy on falling Treasury yields and firm oil. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, but no reversal structure has formed yet.
Support: 1.41609, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41708, 1.41867, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4171 asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, would mark the breakdown as a false break
Holding below the descending trendline keeps the lower-high chain intact; a reclaim of the 1.4187 swing high breaks it
Loss of the 1.4161 session low exposes the 1.4150 psych level
Asian high at 1.4198 caps the broader 24h range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could shift this read; recent strong US data has been faded
Asian range broken lower, London extending to fresh window lows.
Price slipped out of the 1.4171–1.4198 Asian range and through Thursday's 1.4169 low. London has extended the lower-high chain to a fresh session low at 1.4161, with RSI(14) near 29, in line with broad USD selling on falling Treasury yields.
Support: 1.4161, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4187, 1.4198
What it said to watch
A reclaim of 1.4170, the broken Asian low and Thursday low, would flag a false break
An M15 close above the 1.4187 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
The 1.4150 round number is the next level below; a close beneath it extends lower lows
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift this read, though beats have had little staying power this week
Lower highs since 06:15 UTC, trading below the Asian range low.
London open pushed USDCAD through the Asian low at 1.4171 and Thursday's post-data low near 1.4169, extending the leg from the 1.4187 swing high as USD stays heavy on falling Treasury yields. RSI(14) sits near 29. Lows have flattened at the 1.4163 session low over the past hour, with the lower-high trendline capping each bounce.
Support: 1.41627, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41708, 1.41867
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4163 session low exposes the 1.4150 channel low flagged in the macro digest
A close back above the 1.4171 asian low, which aligns with the 38.2-50% fib zone, would mark the break as a false break
Reclaiming the 1.4187 swing high invalidates the lower-high sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print fits the yield-driven USD slide
Lower highs since the 1.4222 post-data spike; London broke below the Asian range.
London took out the 1.4171 Asian low and yesterday's 1.4169 low, printing a 1.4163 session low. Lower highs run from the 1.4222 spike through the 1.4198 Asian high, with a broadly heavy USD on falling yields. RSI(14) sits near 36 and the last few bars are stalling above the low.
Support: 1.41627, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4171, 1.41867, 1.41984
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.4171 asian low turns the break into a false break
Close above the 1.4187 swing high clears the lower-highs trendline and negates the sequence
Break of the 1.4163 session low exposes the 1.4150 channel low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since yesterday's 1.4222 spike; London broke below the Asian range.
Highs have stepped down from the 1.4222 US-data spike, and the lower-high trendline still caps price. London broke the asian low at 1.4171 and set a london low of 1.4163 as falling US yields weigh on USD. RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not oversold; the 1.4187 swing high is the last bounce pivot.
Support: 1.41627, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41708, 1.41867, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4171 asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4163 london low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.4150 psych
Retracement of the London leg beyond 61.8% (~1.4178) and through the 1.4187 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC during NY hours could shift this read; the 1.4198 asian high is the upper reference
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, extending lower in early London · RSI 33 · price 1.41658
Lower highs from 1.4198 and 1.4187; Asian range broken to the downside.
London extended the slide through the Asian low at 1.4171 and yesterday's post-data low at 1.4169 to a session low of 1.4163. The lower-high chain from the 1.4198 Asian high and the 1.4187 swing high is intact as falling US yields keep USD heavy. RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.41627, 1.4160
Resistance: 1.41708, 1.41867, 1.41984
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the asian low at 1.4171 would turn the range break into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.4187 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Acceptance below the 1.4163 session low and the 1.4160 round number extends the lower-low chain
Retracement of the asian high to session low drop stalling near 50% (1.4181) keeps the downtrend structure intact
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low at London open · RSI 38 · price 1.41688
Lower highs from the Asian high; Asian range low broken.
The first bars of London extended the post-Warsh slide, breaking the Asian low at 1.4171 and pressing yesterday's post-data prior low at 1.4169 as falling US yields keep USD heavy. Lower highs at the 1.4198 Asian high and the 1.4187 pre-London swing high frame the descent. RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4171, 1.4187, 1.4198
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4169 prior low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.4150 channel low in focus
Recovery back above the 1.4171 Asian low would mark the break as a false break; a close above the 1.4187 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, LH at 1.4187, retesting swing low.
The 03:45 UTC drop around Warsh's remarks broke the Asian range below the 1.4198 asia high. The rebound stalled at a lower high of 1.4187, near the 61.8% of the warsh drop, and early London is now retesting the 1.4170 swing low, which matches Thursday's post-data low. RSI(14) sits near 33 as falling US yields keep USD heavy.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41867, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4170 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4150 channel low
M15 close above the 1.4187 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.4198 asia high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC: this week strong US prints have faded quickly, and a yield move could shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high, London retesting Asian low.
Lower highs since the 1.4198 Asian high. The Asia-session drop to the 1.4171 Asian low was retested at London open, after the bounce stalled at the 1.4187 swing high, and price now sits just above Thursday's 1.4169 post-data low as falling US yields weigh on USD. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.41708, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41867, 1.41984
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4169 Thu low confirms a fresh lower low beyond the Asian low
Reclaim of the 1.4187 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; hot US data has faded quickly this week
Lower highs from 1.4206 NY high; Asian range 1.4171–1.4198, price in its lower third.
The 03:45 UTC drop to the 1.4171 Asian low tested yesterday's 1.4169 low. The bounce stalled at a 1.4187 lower high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop, and early London has slipped back under both EMAs. A heavy USD on lower US yields keeps the pair pinned near two-week lows.
Support: 1.41708, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41867, 1.41984, 1.4206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4187 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs and reopens the 1.4198 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4171 Asian low and yday low at 1.4169 extends the downtrend to fresh two-week lows
A recovery through the 1.4206 NY high from Thursday's post-data bounce invalidates the downtrend read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Asian range 1.4171–1.4198; price recovering mid-range ahead of London open.
A 03:45 UTC drop to 1.4171 retested yesterday's 1.4169 NY low, the two-week low, as the heavy USD and lower Treasury yields kept CAD firm. Price then held a 1.4175 asian base and climbed along a recovery line to the 50% fib near 1.4184, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and ATR near 5 pips. The 1.4187 rebound high and the 1.4198 asian high cap the move into London open.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4170
Resistance: 1.41867, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4187 rebound high extends the 50% fib recovery toward the 1.4198 asian high
Break of the recovery line and the 1.4175 asian base exposes the 1.4170 two-week low
Close below 1.4169 confirms a lower-low beneath the two-week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.4171 inside 1.4169–1.4206 range.
Late Asia: USD/CAD is rebuilding off the 1.4171 two-wk low, set after Warsh offered no hawkish impetus and holding just above yesterday's 1.4169 post-US-data low, with higher lows stepping up to 1.4180. Price sits near the 50% of the Asian drop, just under the 1.4187 bounce high and EMA20, with the 1.4198 Asian high above.
Support: 1.4180, 1.4170
Resistance: 1.4187, 1.4198, 1.4206
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4187 bounce high and the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop opens the 1.4198 Asian high, then the 1.4206 NY bounce high
Loss of the 1.4180 higher low and the rising higher-lows line puts the 1.4170 two-wk low back in play; a close below confirms a lower low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%); hot US prints have been faded this week, while a miss would extend USD weakness
Lower highs from 1.4206; higher lows since the 1.4171 Asian-session low.
Selling around Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech broke the Asian range at 03:45 UTC and pushed price down to 1.4171, just above Thursday's NY low at 1.4169, as the softer USD/yields tone extended. Price has since rejected the lows and built higher lows from the 1.4175 rebound low back to 1.4184, which sits near the 61.8% retrace of the Warsh drop fib and right at EMA20. Lower highs from 1.4206 still cap price into the London open.
Support: 1.4175, 1.41708, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41867, 1.41932, 1.41984
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4187 bounce high opens the 1.4193 warsh high, then the 1.4198 asian high and the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4175 rebound low puts the 1.4171 asian low and 1.4169 ny low back in play; a break there confirms a lower-low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; recent hot US prints have been faded
Asian range broken lower; consolidating just above the day low.
Macklem's mildly hawkish 04:15 GMT remarks pushed USD/CAD through the Asian range floor near 1.4186 to 1.4171, just shy of yesterday's NY day low at 1.4169. The rebound stalled at the 1.4182 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, and price is now holding a 1.4175 base below EMA20 in late Asia session, with lower highs intact since 1.4206 against a softer USD.
Support: 1.4175, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41822, 1.4186, 1.41984
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4169 day low extends the lower-low sequence into London open
Recovery above the 1.4182 bounce high and back inside the 1.4186 range floor negates the breakdown
Asia high at 1.4198 and the lower-highs line cap the structure; a break above shifts the read to range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; retest of range base capped.
USD/CAD dropped through the Asian low at 1.4182 around Macklem's mildly hawkish remarks. The move extends the soft-USD slide that followed yesterday's failed post-PPI spike to 1.4222. Selling stalled at the 1.4171 session low, just above the 1.4169 prior low, and the bounce was capped on the retest of 1.4182. The lower highs sequence is intact, with RSI(14) near 31 ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.41708, 1.41693, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41821, 1.41984, 1.4206
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4182 asian low would negate the range break
A close below the 1.4171 session low and 1.4169 prior low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.4150 channel base
A break of the lower highs line near the 1.4198 asian high, then 1.4206 ny high, would shift the read to a range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Fed-speak from the IMF meetings could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY data spike · RSI 31 · price 1.41764
Asian range broken lower, price pinned just above prior NY low.
A 22-pip drop late in the Asia session broke the 1.4185–1.4198 Asian range and stalled at 1.4171, just above yesterday's NY prior low at 1.4169. The rebound faded at the 1.4182 bounce high, near the 38.2% level of the Asia drop fib. Lower highs since the 1.4222 NY data spike persist with USD heavy on falling yields, and RSI(14) sits near 31 ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4198
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4169 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4150 channel base
A recovery above the 1.4182 bounce high and back inside the Asian range would neutralise the drop. The 1.4198 asian high and the lower highs trendline near 1.4195 cap above
Macklem's BoC remarks and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; session low holding just above the prior NY low.
A late-Asia drop broke the Asian range (asian low 1.4185, asian high 1.4198) and ran to a session low at 1.4171, stalling just above yesterday's NY low at 1.4169 set after the US data sweep. The USD-led slide tracks falling Treasury yields. Lower highs off the 1.4206 NY high still cap, price is retracing part of the asia drop, and RSI(14) sits near 32.
Support: 1.41708, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.41984, 1.4206
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4185 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the break
Failure to hold the 1.4169 ny low confirms a lower-low below yesterday's NY low
Clearing the lower-highs line near the 1.4198 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Macklem/BoC headlines and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 1.41801
Lower highs from 1.4198 asia high, range break lower, twin lows at 1.4170.
Late Asia session broke the 1.4185–1.4198 Asian range lower in a 20-pip bar, with price stalling at 1.4171, just above yesterday's NY low at 1.4169. That leaves twin lows near 1.4170. The bounce is capped at the 1.4182 bounce high, and lower highs from the 1.4198 Asia high stay intact as falling US yields keep USD heavy.
Support: 1.4170
Resistance: 1.41822, 1.41932, 1.41984
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech due 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A break below the 1.4170 twin lows extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.4193 pre-drop high and the descending trendline negates the range-break read
A close back above the 1.4198 Asia high restores the prior range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next USD-side risk
04:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the US data spike · RSI 24 · price 1.41723
Asian range broken to the downside in late Asia, price testing the NY session low.
Late Asia session broke below the 1.4182–1.4198 Asian range in a 20-pip drop in the 03:45 UTC bar, which coincides with Warsh's scheduled remarks. The move came straight after a rejection at the descending trendline from the post-PPI spike to 1.4222 and leaves price just above the NY low at 1.4169, with RSI(14) near 24 and short-term stretched.
Support: 1.41693, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41821, 1.41984, 1.4206
What it said to watch
Macklem remarks due 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the 1.4169 NY low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.4150 round number next
A reclaim of the 1.4182 Asian low would put price back inside the range and mark this as a false break
A close above the descending trendline and the 1.4206 NY high invalidates the lower-high structure
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended after Asian range break · RSI 24 · price 1.41723
Lower highs since NY data spike; Asian range floor broken.
The 03:45 UTC bar broke the Asian low near 1.4185 as Warsh spoke. It dropped about 20 pips to 1.4171 and stalled just above yesterday's NY low at 1.4169, while the lower-highs line from the post-data spike stays intact. RSI(14) near 24 against ATR of about 5 pips shows the bar was roughly 4x normal size, with a lower USD the clear driver.
Support: 1.41693
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.41984
What it said to watch
Macklem speaks at 04:15 UTC and could materially shift this read
A sustained break of the 1.4169 NY low sets a fresh window low and extends the downtrend
A reclaim of the 1.4185 asian low, near the 61.8% of the Asia drop, would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 1.4198 asian high and the lower-highs line negates the sequence
03:31 UTC
Drifting lower inside the Asian range · RSI 34 · price 1.41863
Lower highs within the 1.4182–1.4198 Asian range, testing the floor.
The Asia session has held a tight 1.4182–1.4198 range, printing a string of lower highs off the asian high. Price is now pressing the 1.4185 session low with RSI(14) near 34. The 1.4182 asian low sits on the 61.8% fib of the recovery from the 1.4169 data low to the 1.4206 ny high, with the USD still soft on falling yields despite the hot PPI and retail sales beats.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh is speaking now and BoC's Macklem follows at 04:15 UTC; either could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.4182 asian low breaks the range and the 61.8% fib, exposing the 1.4169 data low
A move back above the 1.4198 asian high negates the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4206 ny high and the 1.4222 data spike above
03:16 UTC
Post-data downtrend, now basing · RSI 35 · price 1.41858
Lower highs above a 1.4182–1.4198 range; price at range floor.
Falling US yields outweighed the hot PPI and retail sales, and USD/CAD dropped to the 1.4169 NY low before settling into a 1.4182–1.4198 range. The Asian session stalled at the 1.4198 Asian high and has slid back to the range floor, with RSI(14) near 35 and the descending trendline off the 1.4206 lower high still capping.
Support: 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41984, 1.4206
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4182 range floor reopens the 1.4169 NY low
Close above the 1.4198 Asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4206 lower high
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the US data spike · RSI 36 · price 1.41858
Lower-high sequence from 1.4222; tight Asian range 1.4185–1.4198 with price at the floor.
Lower highs have capped the pair since the 12:30 UTC data spike to 1.4222. USD faded hot PPI and retail sales as yields fell, and the 14:30 UTC data low at 1.4169 has not been retested since. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the Asian low at 1.4185 with RSI(14) near 36, and the NY low at 1.4182 sits just beneath.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~30m) and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4185 asian low and 1.4182 ny low exposes the 1.4169 data low
Close above the 1.4198 asian high tests the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4206 lower high; reclaiming the 1.4222 data spike voids the sequence
Asian range 1.4188–1.4198, price pressing range floor.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to the 1.4222 data spike high was rejected into a 52-pip drop to the 1.4169 data low as US yields fell. The NY high at 1.4206 capped the bounce, and Asia has held a tight 1.4188–1.4198 range. Price has slipped below the asia trendline and is sitting on the 1.4188 asian low near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral at 43 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.41879, 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41984, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read and expand the current 3-pip ATR
A close below the 1.4188 asian low exposes the 1.4182 swing low, then the 1.4169 data low
Recovery above the asia trendline and the 1.4198 asian high reopens the 1.4206 ny high
02:31 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, Asian upswing stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.41914
Asian range 1.4182–1.4198 inside 1.4169–1.4206 NY swing; Asia rising line broken.
The data high at 1.4222 from the hot PPI and retail sales print was rejected. NY then extended to the ny low at 1.4169 as falling US yields outweighed the beats, and a double low near 1.4182 has held since. The Asian session ground up to the asian high at 1.4198, just under the 1.4200 handle and the 50% retrace of the NY drop. The 02:00 UTC bar then broke the Asia rising line, leaving price sitting on its EMAs with ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC can expand the compressed Asian range in either direction
Close below the 1.4182 double low reopens the 1.4169 ny low
Close above the 1.4198 asian high and the 1.4206 lower high breaks the post-NY lower-high sequence toward the 1.4222 data high
Rejection again at the 50–61.8% zone of the NY drop fib (1.4196–1.4202) keeps the selloff structure intact
Lower high at 1.4206 under the 1.4222 spike high; Asian range 1.4182–1.4198.
The hot US PPI/retail print spiked the pair to a 1.4222 spike high in early NY before falling yields reversed it to a 1.4169 NY low, with the bounce capped at a 1.4206 lower high. Mid-Asia, price has rolled off the 1.4198 asian high and broken the Asian trendline, now sitting on ema20 near 1.4192 inside the 38.2–50% band of the spike fib.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4182 asian low reopens the 1.4169 ny low
Close above the 1.4198 asian high puts the 1.4206 lower high back in play; only a reclaim of the 1.4222 spike high negates the post-data reversal
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, compressing · RSI 53 · price 1.41929
Tight range 1.4182–1.4198, higher lows vs lower highs since 14:30 UTC.
The 12:30 UTC PPI spike to 1.4222 was rejected. USD/CAD sold off to the 1.4169 NY low as US yields fell, then rebounded to a 1.4206 swing high. Since then the pair has compressed between the 1.4182 swing low, tested three times, and the 1.4198 Asian session high. ATR has shrunk to about 2.6 pips ahead of Warsh and Macklem.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read and break the compression
M15 close above 1.4198 session high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.4206 swing high, then the 1.4222 ppi spike
Failure to hold the 1.4182 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and reopens the 1.4169 ny low
Hot US PPI and retail data produced a data spike to 1.4222 at 12:30 UTC. Falling yields then drove the pair to a 1.4169 NY low, and the 1.4206 swing high capped the bounce. The Asia session is building higher lows off the 1.4182 swing low along a rising trendline, with price now at the 50% retrace just under 1.4200 psych on a compressed ~2.6-pip ATR.
Support: 1.41916, 1.41821, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.4200 psych and the 1.4206 swing high breaks the post-NY lower-high sequence
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4192 higher low returns focus to the 1.4182 swing low and 1.4169 NY low
01:31 UTC
Micro uptrend in Asia after NY sell-off · RSI 64 · price 1.41964
Tight HH/HL chain off the 1.4182 base, pressing the Asian high.
Falling Treasury yields drove NY's drop from the 1.4222 day high to a 1.4169 NY low. Late NY then held a 1.4182 base low. Asia session has since built a slow higher-low chain into the 1.4198 Asian high, just under the 1.4206 NY bounce high, with ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.41916, 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41984, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4198 Asian high opens the 1.4206 NY bounce high, then the 1.4222 day high
Loss of the Asian HL at 1.4192 breaks the Asian trendline and puts the 1.4182 base low back in play
Below 1.4182 exposes the 1.4169 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC. Either could break the compressed Asian range
01:16 UTC
Recovering in Asia after NY sell-off · RSI 64 · price 1.4197
Higher lows off 1.4183 Asian low, testing 50% retrace under 1.4200.
The 12:30 UTC data spike to 1.4222 was a false break of the London high. Price reversed to a 1.4169 NY low as yields fell despite hot PPI. Asia session is grinding higher off the 1.4183 Asian low along a rising line, now just above the 50% retrace of that NY drop and pressing the 1.4200 round number, with ATR near 3 pips reflecting thin conditions.
Support: 1.4183, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 round number and 1.4206 swing high clears the 61.8% retrace and puts the 1.4222 data spike back in view
Break of the Asian rising line and the 1.4183 asian low exposes the 1.4169 ny low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h) and could materially shift this read; Macklem later today is a second CAD risk
Lower highs since the 12:30 UTC spike; Asian session building higher lows off 1.4182 and now at the 50% retrace.
USD sold off through NY despite the PPI and retail sales beats, as falling yields drove the pair from the 1.4222 spike high to the 1.4169 NY low. The Asian session has climbed off the 1.4182 Asian low along a rising asia trend line and is now testing the 50% retrace near 1.4196, with the 1.4206 NY bounce high above. RSI(14) is near 69 in a thin Asia tape, and ATR is about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4206 NY bounce high clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 1.4222 spike high
Break of the asia trend line, then the 1.4182 Asian low, resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4169 NY low
Lower high at 1.4206 after NY rejection; Asian higher lows off a 1.4182 double base.
The spike to the 1.4222 spike high on the US data release in the first hour of NY was rejected and sold to a 1.4169 NY low as falling yields hit USD, with the rebound capped at a 1.4206 lower high. Early Asia is grinding off the 1.4182 double base along a rising trendline, pinned under the 1.4196 Asian high with roughly half of the NY drop fib retraced and ranges compressed to about 4 pips per bar.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41959, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4196 Asian high and 1.4200 psych opens the 1.4206 lower high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.4182 double base puts the 1.4169 NY low back in play
Close above the 1.4222 spike high invalidates the lower-high structure
Lower highs from 1.4222; 1.4182–1.4196 range with rising lows.
The PPI spike to the 1.4222 ppi high was rejected and ran to a 1.4169 ny low as Treasury yields slid on AI-debt risk aversion. Since then price has held a 1.4182 range floor, and rising lows through the Asian session have pressed it into the 1.4196 asian high, which sits on the 50% fib of the PPI drop. RSI(14) near 54, price flat at the EMAs.
Support: 1.4191, 1.4182, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41959, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4196 asian high and 50% fib opens the 1.4206 lower high
Break of the rising lows near 1.4191 returns focus to the 1.4182 range floor, then the 1.4169 ny low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday down, basing in a tight range · RSI 54 · price 1.41944
Lower highs off the 1.4222 data high; post-NY range 1.4182–1.4195.
The hot US PPI and retail sales print at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to the 1.4222 data high. That move was rejected into a 1.4169 NY low as Treasury yields fell. Since late NY it has held a 1.4182–1.4195 range, and early Asia is pressing the late-ny high at the 50% retracement of the PPI drop, with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the late-ny high and 50% fib at 1.4195 opens the 1.4206 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.4182 range low exposes the 1.4169 NY low
Only a reclaim of the 1.4222 data high negates the post-PPI rejection
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC Governor Macklem's speech could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Range after NY slide, drifting higher in Asia · RSI 63 · price 1.41944
1.4182–1.4195 range since NY afternoon, price at range top.
The 1.4222 data spike on the hot US PPI and retail sales faded into a 1.4169 NY low as falling Treasury yields outweighed the data. Price has since held a 1.4182–1.4195 range, and early Asia is pressing the range top, which sits at the 50% retrace of that spike-and-drop.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 range top opens the 1.4206 ny high, with the 1.4222 data spike above
Break of the 1.4182 range low exposes the 1.4169 ny low
Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read