USD/CAD gapped up at the weekly open (1.4270) from Friday's close at 1.4254, filled the gap and then found a floor at the Monday low of 1.4240. That low sits near the 61.8% retracement of Friday's jobs spike, the -68.3K Canadian print that drove the rally. NY session demand then lifted price to a 1.4287 Monday high, with Monday's higher lows tracking a rising trendline and price holding above EMA(20) (~1.4273), which sits on the weekly open. RSI(14) is in the low 60s, and Friday's high at 1.4298, just under the 1.4300 round number, remains the top of the week's range.
Support: 1.42703, 1.42538, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 Friday high and 1.4300 breaks the week's range top and the 18-month high
Loss of the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4270–1.4273 breaks the Monday higher lows trendline
A move back below the 1.4254 Friday close and the 1.4240 Monday low would put the jobs spike fib retracement in doubt
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.42807
Higher lows since Friday's swing low; range 1.4240–1.4298.
USD/CAD gapped up at Monday's open, then filled the gap into the London open, with the 1.4240 Monday low sitting on the 61.8% retracement of Friday's jobs impulse. NY hours drove the recovery to a 1.4287 Monday high, and price now holds above EMA(20) near the 1.4270 weekly open with RSI(14) around 66. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss and a firm USD have kept higher lows intact since Friday's 1.4206 Asian-session swing low, while the 1.4298 jobs high, just under the 1.4300 18-month high, caps the range.
Support: 1.42703, 1.42398, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 jobs high breaks the range top and the 1.4300 18-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4240 Monday low breaks the higher lows sequence and reopens the 1.4206 swing low
Loss of the 1.4270 weekly open and EMA(20) shifts the read back to the range middle
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Higher low in place, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.42814
1.4206–1.4298 range with a higher low Monday.
USDCAD gapped up at the weekly open near 1.4270. It dipped to the Monday low at 1.4240 ahead of the London open, where the 61.8% retracement of Friday's jobs-spike rally held. It then pushed to a Monday high of 1.4287 during NY hours as USD firmed ahead of US CPI and CAD stayed heavy after the -68.3K jobs miss. Price holds above EMA(20), which sits on the weekly open, with RSI(14) near 61. Friday's jobs high at 1.4298 still caps the range just under 1.4300.
Support: 1.42703, 1.42398, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 jobs high and 1.4300 opens a range break toward the 18-month high zone
Failure to hold the weekly open / EMA(20) near 1.4270 returns price to the middle of the range
Break below the Monday low at 1.4240 cuts the higher-low trendline from the Friday low at 1.4206
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC
20:03 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since Friday, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.42842
1.4206–1.4298 range; higher lows from Friday's 1.4206 low, Monday's gap filled and reclaimed.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4206–1.4298 range since midweek. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked price to the 1.4298 jobs high, and a rejection there faded it to a 1.4254 Friday close. Monday's gap up to the 1.4270 weekly open was filled down to the 1.4240 Monday low, near the 61.8% retracement of the jobs spike fib, before NY session buying lifted price back above EMA(20) to a 1.4287 Monday high, with RSI(14) near 66 and higher lows intact.
Support: 1.42703, 1.42538, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4298 jobs high and the 1.4300 round number breaks the range top and the 18-month high, with 1.4400 the next reference
Loss of the 1.4270 weekly open, where EMA(20) also sits, brings the 1.4254 Friday close back into focus
A break below the 1.4240 Monday low ends the higher-lows sequence from Friday
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC), BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.4285
Weekly range 1.4206–1.4298, Monday higher lows.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock drove a 90-pip NY impulse from the 1.4206 range low to the 1.4298 Friday high. Monday's gap up to the 1.4270 weekly open filled in early London, with the 1.4240 Monday low holding the 61.8% retracement of that jobs impulse. Higher lows followed as USD firmed on Middle East tensions, and the NY session lifted price back above EMA(20) near 1.4269 with RSI(14) at 61, now retesting the Friday high just under the 1.4300 round number.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4298, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 Friday high and 1.4300 round number breaks the weekly range top
Failure to hold the 1.4270 weekly open and EMA(20) puts price back inside the mid-range
Break below the 1.4240 Monday low ends the higher-low sequence and the jobs impulse fib hold
Range low at 1.4206 marks the base of this week's structure
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, BoC's Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing back toward Friday's spike high · RSI 64 · price 1.4284
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a 90-pip NY-session spike from the 1.4206 Friday low to a 1.4298 spike high. The pullback found demand at the 1.4240 Monday low around London open, which sits on the 61.8% of the jobs spike fib and forms a higher low on the trendline. Price has since climbed through EMA(20) and printed a 1.4286 session high during holiday-thinned NY hours, with RSI(14) near 64 as the USD rebound lifts the pair.
Support: 1.4267, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4286, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 spike high clears the ~1.4300 18-month high zone, with 1.4400 the next reference
Pullbacks toward EMA(20) near 1.4267 show whether today's NY bid holds in thin holiday trade
Failure to hold the 1.4240 Monday low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.4206 Friday low
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.4240 Monday; 1.4205–1.4298 range intact.
USD/CAD gapped up at the weekly open and filled the gap in Asia. Demand then stepped in at the 1.4240 Monday low during London, the 61.8% retracement of Friday's jobs spike, and NY hours lifted price back through the weekly open to a session high at 1.4285. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 64, as the USD rebound into CPI and the -68.3K Canada jobs miss keep CAD heavy, but the Friday high at 1.4298, just under 1.4300, still caps the week's range.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 Friday high and 1.4300 breaks the range top and challenges the 18-month high
Slip back below the 1.4270 weekly open returns price to mid-range
Loss of the 1.4240 Monday low breaks the higher-low sequence; the 1.4206 Friday low is the range floor
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, then BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD has held a 1.4206–1.4298 range across the window. Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss drove a NY spike to the week high, and that spike was rejected into the close. Monday's gap-up open slipped to the monday low at 1.4240 in early London, close to the 61.8% retracement of Friday's impulse, then demand returned through NY as USD firmed on safe-haven flows. That leaves the pair above EMA(20) at 1.4265, retesting the wed high at 1.4280, with RSI(14) near 65 and higher lows intact.
Support: 1.4265, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 week high (18-month high area) breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.4240 monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 1.4206 week low
Pullbacks holding ema20 near 1.4265 keep the higher-low sequence in place
Thin US/Canada holiday liquidity today; Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC
BoC Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Range-bound with higher lows since Friday · RSI 61 · price 1.42725
1.4205–1.4298 range, Monday higher low after weekend gap.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock drove a near-90-pip spike from the 1.4205 range low to the 1.4298 friday high, which faded into the close before Monday gapped back up to 1.4270. The London-hours dip stalled at 1.4240, the monday low, close to the 61.8% retracement of Friday's spike, and the NY session has lifted price back above the ema20 at 1.4263. The pair is pressing the 1.4280 prior highs from Tuesday and Thursday, with thin holiday liquidity keeping hourly ranges compressed.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4240, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4280 prior highs exposes the 1.4298 friday high and the ~1.4300 18-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4240 monday low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 1.4205 range low
Hammack today 16:50 UTC; Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4205–1.4298 range; Monday holding above 61.8% of Friday's impulse.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs shock drove Friday's NY-open spike from the 1.4206 week low to the 1.4298 week high, where it met rejection just under 1.4300. Price faded into the prior close at 1.4254. Monday gapped up to the 1.4271 weekly open, then dipped to a 1.4240 Monday low at London open, close to the 61.8% retracement of that impulse. Since then price has ground back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) on thin US/Canada holiday volume, with RSI(14) near 55 and hourly ranges compressed to about 9 pips.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 weekly open puts the 1.4298 week high and the 1.4300 cap back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4240 Monday low and the 61.8% fib breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4206 week low
Loss of the 1.4254 prior close returns price to the middle of the range
Fed Hammack today at 16:50 UTC, then BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Range-bound, holding upper half after jobs leg · RSI 55 · price 1.42628
1.4205–1.4298 range; Monday higher low at 1.4240.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4298 range all window. The NY-session pops on Wednesday and after Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock both faded below 1.4300, leaving the 1.4277–1.4280 prior highs and the 1.4298 jobs high as supply points. Monday's gap above the weekly open at 1.4270 was filled in early London, and the dip held at the Monday low of 1.4240, near the 61.8% of Friday's jobs leg fib and a higher low above the prior wk low. Price now sits at the 38.2% near 1.4263, just above a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4259 and under lower highs from the jobs high, with RSI(14) neutral around 55 in holiday-thinned trade.
Support: 1.4259, 1.4240, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4279, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 prior highs and the lower highs trendline puts the 1.4298 jobs high and the 1.4300 18-month high back in focus
Failure to hold the Monday low at 1.4240 breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the prior wk low at 1.4205
Repeated H1 closes below the EMA(20) at 1.4259 would shift the read back to range-middle rotation
Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US and Canadian holidays keep today's ranges thin
12:04 UTC
Range-bound, holding upper half after gap fill · RSI 54 · price 1.42634
1.4205–1.4300 range; lower highs since Friday's jobs spike.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock drove a NY-session spike to the 1.4298 jobs high, the third rejection this week below the 1.4300 18-month high after the 1.4280 midweek high, with the range floor near 1.4206 holding twice. Monday's gap up at the 1.4270 weekly open was filled in thin holiday trade, with early European hours probing the 1.4240 Monday low near the 61.8% retracement of the jobs impulse before a London-session recovery. Price sits on the 38.2% level just above EMA(20) at 1.4258, with RSI(14) near 54 and the lower-high line from Friday's peak overhead.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4300 and the 1.4298 jobs high breaks the weekly range read
Reclaim of the 1.4270 weekly open and the lower-high line would end the post-spike fade
Failure to hold the 1.4240 Monday low exposes the 1.4206 range floor
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC may shift USD tone in thin holiday liquidity
BoC Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Range-bound, recovering mid-range after jobs spike faded · RSI 51 · price 1.42634
1.4206-1.4298 range; higher low at 1.4240 above the twice-tested range low.
USDCAD has traded a 1.4206-1.4298 range since Tuesday. Demand held the range low twice, Tuesday evening and early Friday, before the -68.3K Canadian jobs shock drove a NY-session spike to the 1.4298 week high, just shy of the 1.4300 18-month cap. Monday's gap up filled in early London, and the dip stalled at the 1.4240 Monday low near the 61.8% retrace of the jobs impulse. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) around 1.4260 and sits at the 38.2% level, still under the 1.4270 weekly open, with RSI(14) flat near 51 in holiday-thinned trade.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42398, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42703, 1.42803, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high and 1.4298 week high puts the 1.4300 18-month cap in play
Failure to hold the 1.4240 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4206 range low
Supply at the 1.4270 weekly open capping the rebound keeps price pinned mid-range below EMA(20) resistance-turned-support
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC, then Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4206, higher lows below 1.4300 cap.
Friday's NY session spiked to the 1.4298 jobs high on the -68.3K Canadian employment shock, launching off a double btm at 1.4206 set Tuesday and in Friday's Asia session. Monday gapped up to the 1.4270 weekly open, filled the gap in Asia and held the 1.4240 monday low in early London, near the 61.8% fib retracement of the jobs leg. Price is back above EMA20 at 1.4258 in thin US/Canada holiday trade, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4270 weekly open re-exposes the 1.4298 jobs high and the 1.4300 18-month cap
Failure to hold the 1.4240 monday low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 1.4206 double btm
Repeated H1 closes back below EMA20 at 1.4258 would turn the Monday rebound into a lower high under the weekly open
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC, Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4205–1.4298 weekly range; higher low at 1.4240 under lower highs from 1.4298.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4205–1.4298 range since Tuesday. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove the spike to the week high, but the move faded into the close. Monday's weekly open gap at 1.4270 has since been filled, and the Asia-session dip to the Monday low at 1.4240 held near the 61.8% retrace of Friday's rally. Price is back above the ema20 at 1.4256 in thin US/Canada holiday trade, compressing between higher lows and lower highs, with RSI(14) near 49 and the week low at 1.4205 still marking a twice-tested base.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4240, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 1.4270 breaks the lower highs line and reopens the week high at 1.4298 / 1.4300 cap
Failure to hold the Monday low at 1.4240 breaks the higher lows line and exposes the week low near 1.4205
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4256 returns price to the lower half of the range
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC, Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4205–1.4300 range; lower highs off Friday's spike.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4205–1.4300 range since Tuesday, with NY sessions producing the large swings. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked price to the 1.4298 week high, but the move faded and has since printed a run of lower highs. Monday's gap up to the 1.4270 weekly open has already filled on softer US yields, and the slide into London open stalled at the 61.8% fib of Friday's impulse, now the 1.4240 monday low, leaving price just under EMA(20) near 1.4254 with RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4254, 1.4270, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.4254 and the 1.4270 weekly open would break the lower-highs sequence off Friday's spike
Failure to hold the 1.4240 monday low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.4206 week low and the 1.4200 area
A renewed push to the 1.4298 week high retests the range top near 1.4300
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC, then Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could break the range
1.4205–1.4298 range; Monday gap filled, price mid-range.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4205–1.4298 range since Tuesday's London-session drop. The range low was defended twice, and Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a NY-open spike to the week high at 1.4298, where supply capped the move just shy of 1.4300. Monday's gap above Friday's close filled in the Asia session as softer US yields weighed. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near the 38.2% retrace, with the Monday low at 1.4251 resting on the 50% level and the 61.8% fib at 1.4241 below it.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4241, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 1.4270 and the Wed high at 1.4280 puts the 1.4298 week high and the 1.4300 cap back in play
A close above 1.4298 breaks the range top and the lower-highs line from Friday's spike
Failure to hold the Monday low at 1.4251 (50% fib) exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4241, then the 1.4206 range low
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC; Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4205–1.4298 weekly range; lower highs since Friday's spike.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4205–1.4298 range all week, with demand stepping in at the 1.4206 range floor on Tuesday, at Wednesday's open and again early Friday. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a NY-session spike to the 1.4298 week high, but price was rejected below 1.43. It has since printed lower highs, giving back Monday's weekly open gap to sit at the 50% fib of that jobs spike. RSI(14) has cooled to ~52, and price is pinned between EMA(20) at 1.4255 and EMA(50) at 1.4248.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4241, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4255, 1.4270, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema50 and the 61.8% fib at 1.4241 exposes the 1.4206 range floor
Recovery above the 1.4270 weekly open breaks the lower highs and reopens the 1.4298 week high / 1.43
Macklem (Tue 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift the range read
00:04 UTC
Sideways, weekend gap being faded · RSI 54 · price 1.42573
1.4206–1.4298 range, spike to top rejected.
The week has been a 1.4206–1.4298 range. NY sessions on Tuesday and Thursday sold back toward the range low, which held again in Friday's Asia session. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a 70-pip spike to the 1.4298 week high, just under the 1.4300 round number, and that spike was rejected and faded through NY hours. Monday's gap up to the 1.4270 weekly open is being unwound back toward Friday's prior close at 1.4254, with price sitting just above EMA(20) and the ema50 near 1.4250 and RSI(14) neutral around 54.
Support: 1.42538, 1.42497, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42703, 1.42982, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4270 weekly open would put the 1.4298 week high and the 1.4300 round number back in play
Gap fill through the 1.4254 prior close and the ema50 near 1.4250 would also break the 50% retracement of the jobs spike fib at 1.4252, exposing the 1.4206 range low
A sustained break of the 1.4206 range low would turn the range read into a lower-low sequence
BoC Macklem speaks Tue 06:05 UTC; the first read on the jobs miss could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC are USD-side risk to the range