21:05 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below 1.4300 · RSI 68 · price 1.42538
HH/HL chain since Sep 8 low, 7-session consolidation at highs.
The uptrend began at the Aug 21 / Sep 8 double bottom near 1.3730–1.3760, after the low was defended twice. From there USDCAD climbed through the june high at 1.4248 to an 18-month peak just under the 1.4300 psych level, with price holding well above a rising ema50. For seven sessions price has compressed between the 1.4206 range low and 1.4298. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss pushed a marginal new high, but the close slipped back to 1.4254. RSI near 68 sits just shy of overbought while the rising trendline from the Sep 8 low is being tested.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4206, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.4300, 1.4400
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 1.4300 psych breaks the consolidation higher and opens the 1.4400 round number
- Daily close below the 1.4206 range low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4082 and the ema50 around 1.4020
- Holding the june high at 1.4248 on closing basis keeps the breakout-retest structure intact
- BoC's Macklem on Tuesday and US CPI on Wednesday could materially shift this read