1.4205–1.4285 range; jobs spike above top pulled back inside.
From Tuesday to Thursday the pair held a 1.4205–1.4285 range, with a double low at 1.4205/1.4206 and a run of lower highs from Tuesday's 1.4285 tue high. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a NY-session spike to a 1.4298 week high. Supply just under 1.43 capped it, and the release bar closed at the tue high rather than above it. Price has since eased to the 38.2% level of the LFS spike fib, still above the ema20 (~1.4251) and ema50 (~1.4245), with RSI(14) near 58 and off its post-release peak.
Support: 1.4251, 1.42385, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42849, 1.42982, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4298 week high and the 1.43 round number would break the range top that has capped every test this week
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4251, which aligns with the 50% fib of the LFS spike, would open the pre-lfs high at 1.4239
Failure to hold 1.4239 would bring the double low at 1.4205 back into view and restore the full range read
Macklem (Tue 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next catalysts capable of resolving the 1.42–1.43 range
Week-long 1.4205–1.4285 range with lower highs Tue–Thu; jobs spike cleared the range top, held under 1.43.
USDCAD spent Monday through Friday's London session in a 1.4205–1.4285 range. Highs stepped lower from Tuesday to Thursday, and the week low near 1.4205 held twice, on Wednesday and again early Friday. Canada's -68.3K September jobs shock at the London-NY transition drove a 90-pip spike through the lower-highs line to a week high at 1.4298, which was rejected just under the 1.43 round number. Since then price has held the 1.4266 post-lfs low, above the 38.2% retracement of the jobs impulse and well clear of EMA(20) near 1.4249, while RSI(14) has eased from overbought to the high 60s.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4249, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 week high and 1.43 round number extends the move beyond this week's range
Holding below the 1.4285 tuesday high keeps the breakout unconfirmed and the move a test of the range top
Loss of the 1.4266 post-lfs low exposes the 50–61.8% retracement of the jobs impulse (1.4252–1.4241) and ema20 near 1.4249
Return below ema20 puts the range floor and week low at 1.4205 back in focus
BoC Macklem speaks Tue 06:05 UTC; a dovish read on labour slack versus a 'noise' dismissal could decide the 1.43 test
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major USD input; weekend gap risk on Iran/oil headlines
1.4206–1.4285 range; jobs spike broke above and faded back to the top.
USD/CAD held a 1.4206–1.4285 range most of the week. Tuesday's and Thursday's London-NY sell-offs both stalled at the week low, while rallies printed lower highs below the range top. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss lifted the pair from the pre-jobs low in the first hour of NY, through the lower highs line, to a 1.4298 week high just shy of the 1.4300 cyclical cap. The move then faded back into the 1.4270s, a rejection that leaves price above EMA(20) near 1.4245 with RSI(14) cooled to about 58.
Support: 1.4245, 1.4222, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.4285 range top would turn the false break into a breakout toward the 1.4298 week high and 1.4300
A drop through EMA(20) near 1.4245 and the 61.8% of the jobs spike fib (1.4241) would take price back to mid-range
A break of the Friday higher lows line exposes the 1.4222 pre-jobs low, then the 1.4206 week low
Failure to hold the 1.4206 week low would break the range lower
Macklem's speech and US CPI, both on Wed Oct 14, could materially shift this read
15:05 UTC
Range, upside spike on CAD jobs · RSI 66 · price 1.42739
1.4205–1.4285 range with lower highs; jobs spike rejected below 1.43.
The week has traded a 1.4205–1.4285 range. Tuesday's London-open range top at 1.4285 faded to a 1.4206 week low late Tuesday, and that low held again in Friday's Asia session, while Wednesday and Thursday highs printed a series of lower highs at 1.4280 and 1.4277. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss lifted the pair roughly 70 pips in one hour to a 1.4298 spike high, just shy of the 1.43 cyclical high. The pair has since settled near 1.4274, back under the range top but above the EMA(20) near 1.4244, with RSI(14) at 66 after recovering from the week low.
Support: 1.4244, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 closes above the 1.4285 range top, then through the 1.4298 spike high and 1.43, would shift the read from range to breakout
A return below the EMA(20) near 1.4244 (fib 50% at 1.4252) would leave the jobs spike as a rejection inside the range
Failure of the 1.4206 week low, defended twice this week, breaks the range floor
Weekend gap risk, then Macklem Wed Oct 14 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.4205–1.4285 range broken on Friday's jobs spike; price back at range top.
From Tuesday through Friday's Asia session USDCAD held a 1.4205–1.4285 range. Tuesday's London sell-off and Thursday's NY drop both met demand at the 1.4205 double bottom. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove the pair through the range top to 1.4298, a tick under the 1.43 cycle high, where it was rejected and slipped back toward 1.4280; RSI(14) is near 68, with price well above the ema20 near 1.4238.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Consecutive H1 closes above the 1.4285 range top and through the 1.4298 cycle high open the 1.4300 cap and the path toward 1.4400
An H1 close back below the 1.4266 spike low puts price back inside the range, with the 38.2% fib at 1.4263 and the ema20 near 1.4238 the next reference points
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations due 14:00 UTC today could swing USD into the NY close
Macklem speaks Wed 06:05 UTC; comments on BoC hike pricing after back-to-back job losses could shift the read
13:05 UTC
Range resolving higher after CAD jobs shock · RSI 65 · price 1.42809
Four-day 1.4205–1.4285 range; lower-highs line broken, double bottom near 1.4206.
From Monday through Thursday USD/CAD held a 1.4205–1.4285 range. Each NY-session rally stalled at a lower high: 1.4285 on Tuesday, 1.4280 on Wednesday and the 1.4277 thu high, while Tuesday's late lows and Friday's Asia lows set a double bottom near 1.4206. Today's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss produced a 73-pip hourly bar through the lower-highs line to a 1.4298 spike high, just shy of the 1.4300 cyclical high. Price now sits at the range top, well above EMA(20) near 1.4237, with RSI(14) around 65.
Support: 1.4277, 1.4237, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4277 thu high returns price inside the range and turns the jobs spike into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4298 spike high exposes the 1.4300 cyclical high, the top of the week's structure
A pullback toward ema20 near 1.4237, around the jobs impulse 61.8% (~1.4241), tests whether the breakout holds
Range top at 1.4285 is the area to watch for rejection or acceptance on the next few closes
A loss of the 1.4206 double bottom would reopen the range-low read
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem's remarks on Tue Oct 14 are the first BoC reaction to the payroll miss
1.4205–1.4285 range with a descending cap of lower highs; week low tested twice.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4285 range all week, but each push has stalled lower, from Tuesday's 1.4285 week high to 1.4280 on Wednesday and the 1.4277 thu high. That traces a lower-highs line from the top of the range. The Thursday NY-session slide came as the USD correction on Iran de-escalation and easing yields took hold. It returned price to the week low, where demand stepped in again near 1.4206. Friday's London-session rebound reclaimed the ema20 but met rejection at the 1.4240 friday high, just short of the 50% level of the Thursday–Friday decline, with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4277, 1.4285
What it said to watch
Canada Sept jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) lands within the hour and can break either edge of the range
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor after two holds this week
H1 close above the 1.4240 friday high and the 50% fib opens the path to the 1.4277 thu high and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.4222 returns focus to the range floor
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC can shift the USD leg of the read
USDCAD has ranged between the 1.4205 week low and the 1.4285 week high since Monday. Highs have stepped lower, at 1.4285 on Tuesday, 1.4280 on Wednesday and 1.4277 on Thursday, forming a descending trendline, while the 1.4205 week low held twice: Tuesday into NY and again early Friday. Thursday's NY-session drop, as Treasury yields eased and Iran risk faded, stalled at that floor. London has since lifted price back above EMA(20) at 1.4228 and just above EMA(50), into the 38.2–50% zone of the Thu–Fri drop fib, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.4228, 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4252, 1.4275, 1.4285
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4252 lower high, which coincides with the 61.8% of the Thu–Fri drop fib, opens the trendline near 1.4275
Close above the 1.4285 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Close back below EMA(20) at 1.4228 re-exposes the 1.4205 week low; a break there voids the double bottom and brings the 1.4200 round number into play
1.4205–1.4285 range with descending highs and a flat base.
USD/CAD has rotated inside a 1.4205–1.4285 range since Monday. Each rally faded during NY hours, leaving lower highs at 1.4285, 1.4280 and 1.4277, as easing Treasury yields and a narrower US-Canada 2y spread cooled the dollar. The week low near 1.4206 held again in Friday's Asia session for a tentative double bottom, and the London rebound has reclaimed the ema20 at 1.4226 but sits below the ema50 near 1.4240 and the 38.2% retrace of Thursday's drop at 1.4233.
Support: 1.4226, 1.4206, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4277, 1.4285
What it said to watch
Canada September jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) is the main risk to the range read
H1 close below the week low at 1.4206 and the 1.4200 round number would void the double bottom and extend the lower-high sequence
Close above the ema50 near 1.4240 and the lower-highs trendline (~1.4274) brings the 1.4277 lower high and 1.4285 week high into play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could reprice the USD side within hours of the jobs data
Flat base near 1.4205 under a series of lower highs.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4285 range all week, but each rally has been rejected lower: 1.4285 Tuesday, 1.4280 Wednesday and 1.4277 Thursday. The week low near 1.4205 has held on three tests. Thursday's drop in the NY session, as USD safe-haven demand faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation comments, took price back to that floor; the bounce since the Asia session low has retraced only about a quarter of it and sits right on EMA(20), with EMA(50) at 1.4234 overhead and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4250, 1.4277
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 GMT and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and brings the 1.4200 round number into play
A recovery through the ema50 at 1.4234 and the 61.8% fib of Thursday's drop at 1.4250 would put the 1.4277 lower high back in focus
A close above the lower highs trendline near 1.4277 invalidates the descending-highs read
1.4205–1.4285 range with descending highs pressing on a flat week low.
USD/CAD has been boxed in a 1.4205–1.4285 range since Monday. The week high was set at Tuesday's London open, and each rally since has stalled at a lower high: 1.4280 at Wednesday's London-NY transition and 1.4277 on Thursday. Thursday's NY-session reversal, as US yields corrected and Iran de-escalation drained safe-haven USD demand, took price back to the week low, which Asia retested at 1.4206 overnight. Price now sits just under the ema20 at 1.4225 with RSI(14) near 43, and the fib 61.8 of Thursday's drop at 1.4250 is the first upside marker.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4250, 1.4285
What it said to watch
Canada Sept jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) is the main catalyst for a test of the range floor or a rebound off it
An H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and opens the path toward the 1.4100 psych level
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.4225 and closing above the fib 61.8 at 1.4250 would neutralise Thursday's drop; the lower-highs line near 1.4274 and the 1.4285 week high sit above
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed Collins, could revive the USD yield bid during NY hours
07:04 UTC
Range-bound, sliding lower within it · RSI 40 · price 1.42164
1.4206–1.4285 range with lower highs, price at range floor.
USD/CAD has printed a sequence of lower highs since Tuesday's London session: the 1.4285 week high, then 1.4280 Wednesday and 1.4277 Thursday. Each rally was sold during NY hours. Thursday's NY slide, driven by Iran de-escalation cutting the USD haven bid, returned the pair to the week low near 1.4206, matching Tuesday's trough. Price sits below the ema20 near 1.4225 with RSI(14) near 40, and the Asia session compressed in a tight 1.4206–1.4220 band against the range floor.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4191, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4277, 1.4285
What it said to watch
Canada jobs data at 12:30 UTC, then UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4206 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4191 fair value zone, then the 1.4100 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.4225 and the 38.2% fib of the Thu–Fri drop near 1.4233 would ease the downside pressure
Close above the 1.4277 lower high and the 1.4285 week high invalidates the lower-highs read
06:03 UTC
Sideways to lower, pressing range floor · RSI 34 · price 1.42139
Lower highs compressing into flat 1.4205 floor.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4285 range since Monday. NY-session rallies keep stalling at a falling sequence of lower highs: the 1.4285 week high on Tuesday, then 1.4280 Wednesday and 1.4277 Thursday. The two main legs lower came during NY hours on Tuesday and Thursday. Price has drifted back to the week low near 1.4205, below EMA(20) at 1.4225 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s, as Iran-talk risk-on and softer yields drain USD demand.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4191, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.42516, 1.42849
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and exposes Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value, then the 1.4100 round number
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.4225 and the Thursday 1.4252 lower high (near the 61.8% of the Thursday sell-off) would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A move back through the lower-high trendline toward the 1.4285 week high would restore the full range
05:04 UTC
Range with lower highs, pressing the floor · RSI 32 · price 1.42108
Lower highs at 1.4285, 1.4280, 1.4277 against a flat floor near 1.4205.
USDCAD has carved three lower highs this week (1.4285 Tuesday, 1.4280 Wednesday, 1.4277 Thursday), each rejected during London-NY hours. Price is back at the week low near 1.4205 with RSI(14) in the low 30s. Thursday's NY session selloff from 1.4277 extended into Friday's Asia session as the Iran strike pause drained safe-haven USD demand, and price is holding below the ema20 at 1.4224.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.42516, 1.42849
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4200 round number
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.4224 and the 38.2% fib of Thursday's selloff (1.4234) would ease the lower-highs pressure
Rebound capped below the thu ny high at 1.4252, near the 61.8% fib, keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
H1 close above the lower highs line (~1.4276) and the 1.4285 week high invalidates the read
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Range-bound, pressing the floor · RSI 39 · price 1.42127
Lower highs inside a 1.4205–1.4286 weekly range.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4286 range all week. Highs have stepped lower from Monday's 1.4286 to the 1.4277 Thu high, while Tuesday's 1.4205 week low has held. The Thursday drop came into the NY session as Trump's Iran remarks drained haven USD demand, taking price back below EMA(20) at 1.4228. Bounces have since been capped at the 1.4252 swing high, and the Asia session is retesting the week low with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4191 fair value area
Recovery above ema20 at 1.4228 and the 1.4252 swing high returns price to the range middle
A break above the lower highs trendline near the 1.4277 Thu high negates the descending-highs structure
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC today (f/c +7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 1.4205–1.4293 with lower highs pressing the base.
Since Monday's rejection at the 1.4293 week high, each daily peak has printed lower, at 1.4285 Tuesday, 1.4280 Wednesday and the 1.4277 thu high, while the 1.4205 week low has held as the range base. Thursday's drop came during London-NY transition into NY hours as Trump's 'productive' Iran comments drained safe-haven USD demand. That put price below the ema20 near 1.4230 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 34 as the Asia session retests the week low.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range base and opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number cited by Scotiabank
Canada LFS at 12:30 GMT (f/c +7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read; a weak print has room to send price back toward the thu high
Recovery above the ema20 and 1.4250 (61.8% of Thursday's drop) brings the lower highs trendline near 1.4274 back into play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus any fresh Iran escalation headlines, could revive the USD bid toward the week high
02:03 UTC
Range with lower highs, pressing the floor · RSI 36 · price 1.42101
Descending highs from 1.4293 into a flat 1.4205 base; price below EMA20/EMA50.
Since Monday's 1.4293 peak, USD/CAD has printed a lower high every day: 1.4285 Tuesday, 1.4280 Wednesday and 1.4277 Thursday. Over the same stretch, Tuesday's 1.4205 week low has held as the base of the week range. In the first hours of Thursday's NY session the lower-high trendline produced a rejection, and the selloff took price back under ema20 (~1.4231) as USD faded on the Trump no-strike-on-Iran pledge. The Asia session is now leaning on the week low just above the 1.4200 round number, with RSI(14) near 36 and no divergence yet.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.42516, 1.42772
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4205 week low and the 1.4200 round number would turn the range into a lower-low sequence and expose Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
A recovery through ema20 near 1.4231 and the 1.4252 thu high would put the lower-high trendline around 1.4277 back in focus
Canada jobs (12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Escalating Iran strike-plan headlines or a crude rebound could revive the haven USD bid off the week low
01:04 UTC
Rolling over within weekly range, lower highs · RSI 32 · price 1.42154
1.4206-1.4293 range, highs stepping lower, price at the floor.
The pair has held a 1.4206-1.4293 range since Monday's week high, but each push has stopped short of the last: a sequence of lower highs at 1.4285, 1.4280 and Thursday's 1.4277 rejection. That lower-highs line has capped every attempt. Thursday's NY-session drop came as USD faded on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge and took price back below EMA20 (~1.4234). Asia is now compressing just above the 1.4215 Thu low with RSI(14) near 32, so the week low at 1.4206 is the nearest floor.
Support: 1.4215, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4206 week low breaks the range floor and confirms the lower-high sequence
Recovery above EMA20 and the 50% retrace of Thursday's decline near 1.4246 eases the downside pressure
A move through the 1.4277 lower high reopens the 1.4293 week high
Canada jobs (12:30 UTC) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) land in the same Friday session and could materially shift this read
Fresh Iran strike-plan headlines or a crude swing could override the data
1.4205–1.4293 week range with a descending lower-highs line; price pinned near the range floor.
The week high of 1.4293 printed in Monday's Asian session. Each rally since has stalled a little lower: Tuesday at 1.4285, Wednesday's spike to 1.4280 into the NY open ahead of the FOMC minutes, and Thursday's 1.4277 around the claims print, forming a clear lower-highs line. Thursday's NY session then reversed back toward the Thu low near 1.4216 as crude eased and USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation, leaving price below EMA(20) at 1.4236 with RSI(14) near 40, just above the 1.4205 week low.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4236, 1.4278, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.4236 would neutralise Thursday's NY reversal
A close above the lower-highs line near 1.4278 breaks the week's descending cap and puts the week high at 1.4293 back in focus
Failure to hold the Thu low at 1.4216 and the 1.4205 week low opens Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value area
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) and US UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read