USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.42255
Lower highs from 1.4277 London high; tight 1.4216–1.4227 range.
The NY selloff after 13:30 UTC took price from the 1.4277 London high to a 1.4216 day low through a chain of lower highs, as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation. Early Asia is compressing in a roughly 10-pip band under the 1.4227 range top. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR has shrunk to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.42158, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42268, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4227 range top exposes the 1.4234 lower high, then the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff near 1.4239
Failure to hold the 1.4216 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 psych level
Only a recovery above the 1.4252 ny bounce high would break the lower-high structure
Canada LFS (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into compression · RSI 44 · price 1.42254
Lower highs since London sweep; tight 1.4216–1.4227 range.
London swept the Asian high to 1.4277 and was rejected. The NY sell-off took price to 1.4223 as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation, leaving lower highs at the former asian low (1.4252) and at 1.4234. Price is now compressing between the 1.4216 session low and the 1.4227 range top into early Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high (near the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4216 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4200 round number
1.4252, the former asian low and 61.8% retracement, is the area to watch for rejection or break on any rebound
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into early Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.42244
Lower highs from 1.4277, tight 1.4216–1.4227 range post-NY.
London faded the 1.4251–1.4270 Asian range, then the NY open drove a break to 1.4223 as USD gave back gains on Iran de-escalation. The lower-high chain held from the 1.4277 day high through the 1.4252 NY swing high. Price has since compressed between the 1.4216 day low and a 1.4227 range top into early Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.42158, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42268, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4227 range top opens the 1.4234 lower high and the 23.6% fib of the day high-low drop at ~1.4230
Close back above the 1.4252 NY swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4216 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC), then UoM sentiment/inflation expectations and Fed's Collins (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277, compressing above session low.
The decline from the 1.4277 London high ran through NY as DXY slipped on Trump's Iran de-escalation headlines. It printed lower highs at 1.4270, the 1.4252 lower high and the 1.4234 swing high. Since late NY, price has compressed in a 10-pip base above the 1.4216 session low into early Asia, with the 1.4227 range top capping and RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 1.4252 lower high, near the 61.8% of the decline fib
Failure to hold the 1.4216 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4200 round number
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
USD/CAD sold off from the 1.4277 London high through NY hours as USD softened on Trump's Iran de-escalation, leaving lower highs at 1.4252 and the 1.4234 swing high. Early Asia is compressing in a roughly 10-pip band between the 1.4216 asian low and 1.4226 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 swing high, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4216 asian low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277, tight base at session low.
NY hours took out the Asian range low near 1.4251 and the London low at 1.4243 as oil eased on Trump's Iran de-escalation, leaving a lower-high chain from the 1.4277 session high through 1.4252 and the 1.4234 swing high. Since the rollover, price has compressed in a 1.4216–1.4227 band, with the session low at 1.4216 and the range top at 1.4227, and RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 1.42158, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42268, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4191 fair value area
Close above the 1.4227 range top and then the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; 1.4252 lower high sits at the 61.8% retrace
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian session ranges below 6 pips ATR; expect compression to persist until London open
Lower highs since NY open, compressing into a 1.4216–1.4234 base.
The NY session broke the Asian low at 1.4252 and extended the sell-off to roughly 60 pips off the 1.4277 London high as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation, printing lower highs on the way down. Since the NY close, price has compressed into a tight base between the 1.4216 session low and the 1.4234 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR down to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the post-NY lower-high sequence, with the 1.4252 Asian low the next cap
A reclaim of the NY sell-off fib 50% near 1.4247 would neutralise the downtrend read, while the 1.4277 London high caps the day's range
Failure at the 1.4216 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range low at 1.4251. NY then extended a lower-high chain from the 1.4277 session high (1.4270, 1.4252 lower high, 1.4234 swing high) as USD faded on Iran de-escalation headlines. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.4216–1.4227 range just below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR down to roughly 5–6 pips.
Support: 1.42158, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42268, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib of the 1.4277–1.4216 drop sits just above at 1.4239
Failure to hold the 1.4216 range low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Range top at 1.4227 capping keeps the consolidation intact through Asia
A recovery back to the 1.4252 lower high would put price at the 61.8% fib
Canada LFS (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277, compressing above 1.4216 low.
USD/CAD has stepped lower since the 1.4277 London high, with the NY session selloff tracking a broad USD fade as Trump's Iran de-escalation knocked oil and DXY. Successive lower highs at 1.4252 and 1.4234 and lower lows down to the 1.4216 session low have now flattened into a tight post-rollover consolidation around 1.4220–1.4225. RSI(14) is near 43, and ATR is about 5 pips, so the move has slowed.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.4252 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 1.4239 sit above
Failure to hold the 1.4216 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4191 fair value area
Canada LFS jobs (Fri 12:30 GMT, f/c 7K) and US UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277, lows compressing above 1.4216.
The NY session broke below the Asian range low near 1.4251 and sold off from the 1.4277 London high as the USD faded on Iran de-escalation. Each bounce has stalled at a lower high on the falling trendline. Price is now holding just above the 1.4216 session low in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 41, the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value just below.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 swing high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
A move into the 1.4252 fib 61.8 zone would retest the broken Asian range floor
Failure to hold the 1.4216 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number and 1.4191 fair value
Rollover and early Asia liquidity is thin, so breaks of the session low are less reliable
Canada jobs data (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing at the lows · RSI 45 · price 1.4222
Lower highs / lower lows from the 1.4277 London high; tight base above the 1.4217 day low into rollover.
London tagged 1.4277 before NY sold through the 1.4243 london low as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation, building lower highs into a 1.4217 day low. Price is coiling around 1.4220 into rollover, capped by the lower highs trendline below the 1.4234 lower high. RSI(14) sits at 45.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4243, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.4243 london low and 1.4252 swing high into view
Failure to hold the 1.4217 day low opens Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Canada jobs (LFS) Fri 12:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into NY close · RSI 43 · price 1.42244
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high, now a tight late-NY base.
London lifted price above the Asian range to a 1.4277 day high, then NY broke below the 1.4251 Asian low as the USD pullback on Iran de-escalation and softer oil set in. A lower-high chain carried price to a 1.4217 session low, and the pair is now compressing between 1.4217 and the 1.4234 range top under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 range top and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the former asian low at 1.4252, near the 61.8% NY sell-off fib, is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.4217 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4191 fair-value area
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC and UMich 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding at lows late NY · RSI 34 · price 1.42214
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4277 London high.
USD/CAD broke below the Asian range after the 1.4277 London day high. Through the NY session it printed a chain of lower highs at 1.4252 and 1.4234 as USD gave back gains on Iran de-escalation headlines. Late NY is compressing just above the 1.4217 day low with ATR near 6.5 pips, and RSI(14) at 34 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.4252 NY high is next above
Failure to hold the 1.4217 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4191 fair value area
A move back through the lower highs trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada jobs (LFS) Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since NY open, below Asian range.
USDCAD broke below the Asian low near 1.4252 at the NY open as the oil-driven USD pullback on Iran de-escalation headlines took hold, then printed lower highs at 1.4252 and 1.4234. Late NY is grinding along the 1.4218 session low with RSI(14) near 32, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4218 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Former Asian low at 1.4252 is the level to watch for rejection on any rebound
Canada jobs data (Fri 12:30 GMT) and UMich at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277 day high; flat lows at 1.4220.
NY session reversed London's push to the 1.4277 day high, slicing through the Asian low at 1.4251 to a session low near 1.4220 as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments. Late NY is basing at 1.4220 after two tests, with RSI(14) near 34 and lower highs at 1.4252 and 1.4234 capping the bounces.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Recovery through the asian low at 1.4252 (near the 50% of the day high-low move) neutralises the NY selloff
Failure to hold the 1.4220 session low exposes the 1.4191 fair value area
Canada jobs (LFS) Fri 12:30 UTC and US UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY session · RSI 34 · price 1.4222
Lower-high chain from 1.4277; retesting 1.4220 session low.
London lifted price out of the 1.4251–1.4270 Asian range to a 1.4277 session high, but NY reversed it as USD faded on Trump's Iran no-strike comments. Lower highs at 1.4252 and 1.4234 cap the falling trendline. Price is now retesting the 1.4220 session low with RSI(14) near 34, and the 1.4234 bounce stalled at the 23.6% fib.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4220 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4234 lower high stalls the sequence; reclaiming the 1.4252 swing high breaks the falling trendline and the 38.2% fib
Canada LFS and US UoM sentiment Fri (12:30/14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; Asian range low broken.
Lower highs since the London day high at 1.4277. NY broke below the Asian range low near 1.4251 and set a day low at 1.4220 as cooler crude on Iran de-escalation trimmed the USD bid. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.4234 swing high, with RSI(14) near 37 and well clear of oversold.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4252 lower high, near the 50–61.8% retrace of the selloff, breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4220 day low extends the sequence toward Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Acceptance back above the 1.4234 swing high shifts the late-NY action toward a range
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment (Fri 14:00 UTC) can reset intraday structure; thin liquidity into NY close
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 39 · price 1.42284
Lower-high, lower-low chain below the broken Asian range.
London faked above the Asian range to a 1.4277 session high, then NY broke the 1.4251 Asian low as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments. The 1.4252 retest was rejected under the lower-high line, and a fresh session low at 1.4220 followed. Late NY is holding a shallow bounce high at 1.4234, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4220 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4200 round number
Close back above the 1.4234 bounce high brings the 38.2% NY selloff fib near 1.4242 into view
Recovery above the 1.4252 asian low and the lower-high line negates the lower-high sequence
Canada LFS and US UoM sentiment on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the day high; Asian range broken to the downside.
NY session broke the 1.4251 Asian low, printed a lower high back at that level, then made a fresh session low at 1.4220 as the haven USD bid eased on Trump's Iran de-escalation remarks. The current bounce sits just under EMA20 near 1.4235, with the 61.8 fib and the lower-highs trendline from the 1.4277 day high converging around 1.4239.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4239, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4239 61.8 fib / lower-highs trendline keeps the downtrend sequence intact
M15 close above the 1.4252 asian low breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 1.4277 day high back in focus
Break of the 1.4220 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Canada jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, UR 6.5%) is the next scheduled risk for this read
Lower highs 1.4277 → 1.4270 → 1.4252, lower low at 1.4220; Asian range broken lower.
NY session reversed London's push to the 1.4277 day high and broke below the 1.4251 Asian range low, printing lower highs at 1.4270 and 1.4252 as Trump's Iran de-escalation trimmed the haven USD bid. After London close, price is basing just above the 1.4220 session low with RSI(14) near 44, well off oversold.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4242, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4252 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and invalidates the downtrend read
Rebound stalling at the 38.2 fib (1.4242) keeps the sequence of lower highs intact
Failure to hold the 1.4220 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Day high at 1.4277 caps the session; reclaiming it would restore the prior range top
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US Michigan sentiment (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
London swept the Asian low to 1.4243, then the Asian high to 1.4277. NY rolled over from the 1.4270 ny high, printed a lower high at 1.4252 and a fresh session low at 1.4220. Price is pinned near that low after London close with RSI(14) ~39, slipping from near 18-month highs despite the firm-USD backdrop.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4252, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4252 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4270 ny high back in view
Loss of the 1.4220 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Price respecting the lower highs trendline keeps the intraday downtrend read intact
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) and US Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through NY · RSI 35 · price 1.42214
Late NY session at day low after breaking the Asian range low and the 1.4223 prior low.
Sellers broke the Asian range low at the NY open. The pair slid from the 1.4270 NY high to the 1.4223 prior low, then made a lower high at 1.4252 before extending to a fresh session low at 1.4220 after London close, as Trump's Iran de-escalation headline sapped haven USD demand. RSI(14) at 35 is not stretched, and price sits under the descending NY trendline with the 1.4191 fair value area just below.
Support: 1.42196, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.42516, 1.42695
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.4220 session low and the 1.4200 round number puts 1.4191 fair value in play
A move back above the 1.4223 prior low that holds puts the 1.4252 lower high and the NY trendline back in focus
M15 close above the 1.4252 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD risk
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY session · RSI 39 · price 1.42314
Asian range broken lower; NY low 1.4223, lower high 1.4252.
USDCAD failed below the 1.4277 session high, and the NY open drove a slide through the Asian range to a 1.4223 NY low. The rebound stalled at 1.4252, a 61.8% retrace of the NY drop that now marks a lower high, as Trump's Iran de-escalation remarks trimmed haven USD demand. Price is pressing back toward the NY low with RSI(14) near 39, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4252, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4223 NY low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.4200 round number in view
Reclaim of the 1.4252 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence; the 1.4270 Asian high sits above
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 GMT is the next major CAD risk
Asian range broken lower in NY; lower highs below 1.4251.
NY session reversed the London spike to the 1.4277 day high, cutting through the Asian range low and the London low to a 1.4223 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 1.4251 rebound high, at the 50% fib of the NY drop and the broken Asian low. After London close price is rotating near the 1.4240 pullback low, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 42 and a lower highs line capping.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4251 rebound high (50% fib, broken Asian low) breaks the lower highs line and neutralises the range break
Failure at the 1.4240 pullback low exposes the 1.4223 NY low
Day high at 1.4277 stays the upper bound of the session range unless the retest of 1.4251 fails
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 GMT is the next major risk for CAD
Lower high at 1.4252 under Asian range low, NY low 1.4223 intact.
London pushed above the Asian high to a 1.4277 london high, then reversed. The drop accelerated through the US data window to a 1.4223 ny low. The NY rebound stalled at 1.4252, where the old asian low sits alongside the 50% fib of that leg, and price is now flat at EMA20 near 1.4246 late in NY hours.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4252, 1.4270, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4252 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and opens 1.4270 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4240 swing low exposes the 1.4223 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.4277 london high invalidates the intraday lower-high read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
NY down-leg, corrective rebound · RSI 47 · price 1.42495
Lower high at 1.4270, 1.4223 low; rebound testing the broken Asian range floor.
The claims beat lifted the pair briefly to 1.4270. NY then sold through the 1.4251 asian low and the 1.4243 london low to a 1.4223 ny low. The rebound after London close has stalled at 1.4252, where the broken asian low meets the 61.8% fib of the NY drop, with RSI(14) back near 47.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4252, 1.4270, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4252 (asian low / 61.8% fib) reopens the 1.4270 asian high and the 1.4277 session high
A break of the rebound line and the 1.4243 london low exposes the 1.4223 ny low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC (~70 min) could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Intraday down leg, rebound in progress · RSI 49 · price 1.42486
London range 1.4243–1.4277 broken lower at NY open; higher lows off 1.4223.
A claims-beat spike to 1.4270 faded, and selling at the NY open broke the 1.4243 london low to print the ny low at 1.4223. Price has since rebuilt above the london low on a chain of higher lows along the recovery line. It is now testing the 50% fib of the drop at 1.4251, with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4257, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4257 shifts the read toward a retest of the asian high at 1.4270
Loss of the london low at 1.4243 and the recovery line puts the ny low at 1.4223 back in focus
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
NY broke below the Asian range and London low, base at 1.4223, now retesting from below.
Rejection from the 1.4277 session high late in London turned into a NY-hours break of the Asian range and the 1.4243 London low. The drop held three bars at the 1.4223 session low before a 25-pip rebound. Price is now back at the london low / 38.2% fib zone just under the 1.4250 asian low, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) recovering to ~44, while the USD yield backdrop stays firm.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4257, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 asian low and the 61.8% fib at 1.4257 puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4243 london low reopens the 1.4223 session low
Close above the 1.4277 session high negates the NY breakdown read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.4270, NY break below London and Asian lows, retest from below.
The claims-beat spike to 1.4270 at the NY open printed a lower high under the 1.4277 London peak, then sold off through the london low at 1.4243 and the asian low at 1.4251 to a 1.4223 ny low. Three bars held 1.4223–1.4224, and the rebound is now testing 1.4243 from below at the 38.2% fib, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.4251, 1.4270
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4243 london low keeps the breakdown intact; loss of the 1.4223 ny low opens the 1.4200 round number
M15 close back above the 1.4251 asian low negates the range break and puts the 1.4270 lower high back in play
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
NY broke the Asian range and London low; now retesting from below.
Supply capped the pair at the 1.4277 session high in late London. NY hours then broke the Asian range and the 1.4243 London low, printing a 1.4223 session low before a bounce off a 1.4230 bounce base. Price is now retesting the 1.4243 London low from below, near the 38.2% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) recovering to ~40 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.4250, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4243 london low reclaims the broken level and opens the 50% fib at 1.4250
Rejection at 1.4243 followed by a break of the 1.4230 bounce base exposes the 1.4223 session low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD catalyst
Lower highs from 1.4277; Asian range broken lower, basing at 1.4223.
The NY session broke the Asian low at 1.4251 and the London low at 1.4243 after 13:30 UTC, falling about 47 pips from the 1.4270 NY high to a session low at 1.4223 despite the claims beat. The lower highs from 1.4277 remain intact. Price is basing just above 1.4223 for four bars, with RSI(14) near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.4251, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4251 (asian low, near the 50% fib of the NY drop) negates the range break
Reclaiming the 1.4243 london low (38.2% fib) would signal the drop is being retraced
Failure to hold the 1.4223 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A push through 1.4270 (ny high) breaks the lower highs line
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada LFS follows Fri 12:30 UTC
15:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, oversold after NY slide · RSI 29 · price 1.42285
Lower highs since late London; broke below the 24h range low.
Lower highs from the 1.4277 london high gave way to a ~54-pip NY slide through the london low at 1.4243 and the asian low at 1.4251, printing a 1.4223 ny low; the claims beat at 12:30 UTC lifted price only briefly. RSI(14) near 29 with price under both EMAs, and the 1.4243–1.4251 band now sits overhead at the 38.2–50% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.4251, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4243 london low would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4223 ny low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A break of the lower-highs line from 1.4277 would end the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and Friday's 12:30 UTC Canada LFS could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low in NY · RSI 28 · price 1.42293
Range break lower, lower highs since 1.4277.
In the first hour of NY, price broke below the 1.4243–1.4277 day range and slid ~45 pips to a session low at 1.4223, against the firm-USD macro backdrop. RSI(14) sits near 28. The broken london low at 1.4243 coincides with the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop and is the first overhead level, while lower highs have capped price since the 1.4277 session high.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.4251, 1.4277
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.4243 london low returns price to the prior range and neutralises the range break
M15 close below the 1.4223 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A push through the 1.4251 asian low breaks the lower-highs trendline from 1.4277
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC, then Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277; Asian range broken to the downside.
A false break above the Asian high to 1.4277 left lower highs, and the post-claims bounce stalled at 1.4270. Through the NY open, price sliced the asian low 1.4251, the london low 1.4243 and the prior low 1.4238, printing a 1.4225 session low with RSI(14) near 28 despite the firm USD backdrop in the digest.
Support: 1.42246, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.42382, 1.42432, 1.4251
What it said to watch
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4238 prior low marks the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4225 session low exposes the 1.4220 round number
Retracement capped at the 1.4243 london low keeps the lower highs sequence intact
Break below London low and 24h range floor; fresh day low at 1.4238.
Early NY session sold through the 1.4243 London low and the 1.4251 Asian low, printing a day low at 1.4238 after the bounce on the firm jobless-claims print faded at 1.4270. Highs are stepping lower from the 1.4277 session high. RSI(14) sits near 38, not stretched.
Support: 1.42379, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42432, 1.42511, 1.42772
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4243 London low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4238 day low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A close above the 1.4251 Asian low and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the intraday downtrend
Kashkari speaks at 14:40 UTC; a dovish tilt or USD-yield swing could move price beyond its ~9-pip ATR
14:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 38 · price 1.42429
Broke below London low, testing 24h low.
First hour of NY broke the London low at 1.4243 and set a 1.4240 ny low just above the 24h low at 1.4238. The move came despite the firm USD tone after the 197K claims beat. Highs have stepped lower from the 1.4277 London session high to the 1.4270 lower high, with price now below the Asian low at 1.4251 and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.42399, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42432, 1.42511, 1.42695
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 1.4243 and the asian low at 1.4251 would make the break a false break
Failure to hold the 24h low at 1.4238 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 1.4270 lower high and the descending trendline negates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could shift USD within the next hours
False break above Asian high, price back at Asian low.
London lifted price above the asian high at 1.4270 to a 1.4277 session high, but the break failed and the move has retraced most of the London swing from 1.4243. The 12:30 UTC claims beat whipsawed price between 1.4251 and 1.4270. A lower high at 1.4270 now sits under the session high, and price is back testing the asian low with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.4251, 1.42432, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.42772
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 asian low opens the 1.4243 london low, then the 1.4238 prior low from NY yesterday
Close back above 1.4270 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4277 session high back in play
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD pricing mid-NY session
Asian range 1.4251–1.4270 with false breaks on both sides; higher low at 12:30 UTC.
London open broke below the Asian range to the london low at 1.4243, and an 11:15 UTC push to the session high at 1.4277 was rejected. Price is back inside the range near 1.4263, sitting on EMA20. The 12:30 UTC dip held the claims low at 1.4251, the 78.6% fib of the london-low to session-high leg, and reversed on the 197K jobless claims beat, a higher low against the London low with the asia high at 1.4270 capping since.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4277 session high exposes the 1.4293 18m high
Failure to hold the 1.4251 claims low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 1.4243 london low
Repeated rejection at the 1.4270 asia high keeps the range read intact
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via Dec hike pricing
London-NY range 1.4243–1.4277 with rising intraday lows; capped under the session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4270 into a session high of 1.4277 but failed to hold it. The beat on the 12:30 UTC claims print (197K) followed a dip to the NY low at 1.4251 and a rebound to 1.4270. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of the London swing, RSI(14) neutral near 50, with the rising-lows line from the London low intact.
Support: 1.42506, 1.42432
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42772, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4277 session high reopens the 18m high at 1.4293
Repeated rejection under the 1.4270 Asian high keeps the range read
Break below the 1.4251 NY low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.4243 London low
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD intraday
13:04 UTC
Two-sided, intraday higher low in place · RSI 52 · price 1.42649
24h range 1.4238–1.4277; London false breaks on both sides of Asian range, NY holding a higher low at 1.4251.
London dipped below the Asian low to 1.4243, then reversed through the 1.4270 Asian high to a 1.4277 session high that was rejected. The pullback held at the 1.4251 NY low, near the 78.6% retrace of the London low–session high leg, around the 12:30 UTC claims release. Price is back at 1.4265 in the first hour of NY with RSI(14) neutral near 52, while Treasury yields near 2002 highs keep USD supported.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4277 session high reopens the 1.4293 18m high
Break below the 1.4251 NY low exposes the 1.4243 London low and negates the higher-low read
Asian high at 1.4270 capping again keeps price inside the session range
Pending jobless claims print and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Wide session range 1.4243–1.4277; failed break above the Asian high, rising lows since London.
London first dipped below the Asian low to a 1.4243 london low, then reversed through the 1.4270 Asian high to a 1.4277 session high that was rejected. The slide into the 12:30 UTC jobless claims release found demand at the Asian low near 1.4251, a higher low on the rising lows line. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the session high-to-low drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and the pair holding near its highs on firm USD and high yields.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4270 asian high and the 1.4277 session high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.4251 asian low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.4243 london low
Jobless claims print (actual not yet in feed) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
London false breaks on both sides of the Asian range; price back inside, mid-range.
London swept both sides of the Asian range (1.4251–1.4270). It dropped to the 1.4243 london low at 08:00 UTC, then an 11:30 UTC spike to the 1.4277 session high failed and reversed back inside the range. Price is now at 1.4257, near the 61.8% retracement of that London swing. It sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at 46 as US Jobless Claims hit.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4277, 1.4280
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4251 asian low reopens the 1.4243 london low and the 1.4238 prior low
A reclaim of the 1.4270 asian high puts the 1.4277 session high and 1.4280 prior high back in play
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could set NY session direction
Holding the 61.8% retracement keeps the London swing intact; a break below it leaves the range floor exposed
12:17 UTC
Range-bound, intraday higher lows under test · RSI 50 · price 1.42601
London false break above Asian high, back inside range on rising trendline.
London traded both sides of the Asian range. A dip to the 1.4243 london low held above the prior low at 1.4238, then an 11:15 UTC push broke the 1.4270 asian high and was rejected at the 1.4277 session high, under the 1.4280 prior high. The 12:00 bar erased that move. Price now sits at 1.4260 on the 50% fib of the London leg and the rising trendline off the London lows, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and USD still firm on yields ahead of jobless claims.
Support: 1.42539, 1.42432, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42772, 1.42803
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) can materially shift this read in the next bar; Kashkari speaks at 14:40 UTC
A break of the London lows trendline and the 1.4254 swing low exposes the 1.4243 london low, then the 1.4238 prior low
An M15 close back above the 1.4270 asian high negates the false break and puts the 1.4277 session high and 1.4280 prior high back in focus
HH/HL chain since London low, retesting broken Asian high.
London dipped below the 1.4250 Asian range floor to a 1.4243 london low, then reversed into a HH/HL chain. The 11:15 UTC push broke the 1.4270 asian high to a 1.4277 session high, just short of yesterday's 1.4280 prior high, with USD bid after the hawkish FOMC minutes. Price is now retesting the asian high into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) at 64.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4254, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4277, 1.4280
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4270 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4254 swing low and the London trendline breaks the HL chain
M15 close above the 1.4280 prior high clears the window high and opens the 1.4293 area
11:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London low · RSI 61 · price 1.42679
London swept below Asian range, reversed, broke Asian high; retest under way.
London open dipped below the Asian range low to a london low at 1.4243, then reversed. The pair printed a higher low at 1.4254 and broke the Asian high near 1.4270 to a session high of 1.4277, with USD held up by the hawkish FOMC minutes and firm Treasury yields. Price is now retesting the asian high just beneath yesterday's prior high at 1.4280, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.4270, 1.42539, 1.42432
Resistance: 1.42772, 1.42803, 1.4293
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, around the NY open, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4270 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4254 higher low and the rising support line from the london low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.4280 prior high leaves the 1.4293 18m high as the next reference
Higher lows from London low, Asian range high broken.
London open dipped below the Asian range to a 1.4243 london low and then reversed. The 10:45 UTC swing low at 1.4254 held above it, and the 11:00 UTC push broke the 1.4270 asian high to 1.4277. Price sits just under yesterday's 1.4280 prior high on broad USD firmness after the hawkish FOMC minutes and multi-decade-high yields.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4254, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K), about 1h out, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4270 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
A clean close above the 1.4280 prior high exposes the 1.4293 18m high and the 1.4300 handle
Pullbacks holding the 38.2% fib of the London leg (~1.4264) keep the higher-low structure intact
Loss of the rising support and the 1.4254 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, with the 1.4243 london low next
11:16 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since London low · RSI 61 · price 1.42662
False break below Asian low, now retesting Asian high.
London broke the asian low at 1.4250 and printed a london low at 1.4243 before reversing. A higher swing low at 1.4254 followed, and the late-London bar pushed back to the asian high at 1.4270. Firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes and high Treasury yields underpins the bounce.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4250, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 asian high opens the 1.4280 prior high
Loss of the 1.4254 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 1.4250 asian low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4243 london low confirms a lower-low
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Sideways, EMAs flat · RSI 51 · price 1.42587
Asian range 1.4251–1.4270 intact; London false break below, capped under top.
London open broke below the Asian low at 1.4251, reached the London low at 1.4243 and reclaimed the range. The rebound ran into rejection at the 1.4267 London high, just under the 1.4270 Asian high, as a firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes is offset by oil-supported CAD. Price now sits mid-range on flat EMA20/50, with the 1.4254 pullback low holding the 50–61.8% zone of the London leg fib; RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 1.42539, 1.42511, 1.42432
Resistance: 1.42675, 1.42699, 1.42803
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and the NY open could break the 1.4251–1.4270 Asian range
M15 close above the 1.4270 Asian high exposes the 1.4280 prior high
Loss of the 1.4254 pullback low and London rising support reopens the 1.4243 London low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could extend any post-claims move
10:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.42569
Asian range intact after a London false break lower; lower high at 1.4267.
London open broke the 1.4251 asian low and made a 1.4243 london low, then reversed back into the band. The rebound was rejected at 1.4267, a lower high under the 1.4270 asian high. Price now sits near the 50% fib of that rebound with EMAs flat, and the USD bid from the hawkish FOMC minutes is not producing follow-through here.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range either way
M15 close below the 1.4251 asian low reopens the 1.4243 london low and the 1.4238 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.4267 lower high and the 1.4270 asian high puts the 1.4280 prior high back in play
Kashkari speaks at 14:40 UTC during NY hours, a second headline risk
10:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 58 · price 1.4263
Asian range 1.4251–1.4270; London false break below, now back at range top.
London opened with a false break below the Asian range low near 1.4251. Price bottomed at the 1.4243 London low, and a higher-low chain has since carried it back to the 1.4270 Asian high, with firm USD on near-2002-high yields underpinning the bounce. Mid-London, RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 Asian high opens yesterday's 1.4280 prior high
Break of the 1.4253 higher low snaps the London rising line and the HL chain
Loss of the 1.4243 London low exposes yesterday's 1.4238 prior low
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 57 · price 1.42661
False break below Asian range, price back at range top.
London open sold off from the 1.4270 session high and broke the 1.4251 Asian low, but the move stalled at 1.4243, the london low. Price has since retraced more than 78.6% of the London drop on a recovery line of higher lows and is pressing the session high, with USD still underpinned by hawkish FOMC minutes and Treasury yields near 2002 highs.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 session high opens the 1.4280 prior high
Return below the 1.4251 asian low revives the London downside break toward the 1.4243 london low
A break of the recovery line from the london low ends the higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) could materially shift this read
False break below Asian range, back inside 1.4251–1.4270.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4251 and stalled at 1.4243, holding above yesterday's 1.4238 NY low. The rebound has retraced about 75% of the drop from the 1.4270 Asian high and is pressing the 1.4265 London high, with price back above both EMAs as USD stays supported by post-FOMC-minutes yields.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 asian high breaks the overnight range and puts the 1.4280 prior high in view
Loss of the 1.4243 london low negates the false break and exposes the 1.4238 ny low
Break of the recovery line back below 1.4251 asian low returns price to the lower half of the range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
London false break below Asian low reclaimed; highs stepping lower.
Mid-London, price trades back inside the Asian range near 1.4263 after London's false break below the 1.4251 Asian low printed a 1.4243 London low. The rebound has cleared the fib 61.8 of the 1.4270–1.4243 London drop, though highs keep stepping lower from yesterday's 1.4280 prior high and the 1.4270 Asian high, with USD held firm by elevated yields after the hawkish FOMC minutes.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4280 prior high in play
Loss of the fib 61.8 at 1.4260 and the rebound line returns focus to the 1.4251 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4243 London low confirms a lower-low on the session
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Sideways, recovering from London dip · RSI 48 · price 1.4260
Asian range 1.4251–1.4270 intact after failed London break lower.
London open pushed USDCAD through the 1.4251 Asian low to a London low at 1.4243, but the break failed. Price is back inside the 1.4251–1.4270 Asian range, near the 61.8% fib of the London drop, with the session high at 1.4262 capping for now. EMAs are flat and RSI(14) is neutral near 48, with firm US yields still the backdrop.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 Asian high opens the 1.4280 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4251 Asian low re-exposes the London low at 1.4243 and the 1.4238 swing low
Rejection at the 1.4262 session high and 61.8% fib keeps the range read in place
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off London low · RSI 49 · price 1.42618
False break below Asian range, back inside 1.4251–1.4270.
London open sold through the asian low at 1.4251 to a london low of 1.4243, holding above yesterday's prior low at 1.4238, then rebounded about 19 pips back into the Asian range. Price sits at 1.4262, past the 61.8% retrace of the London drop and below the asian high at 1.4270, with firm US yields keeping the pair near yesterday's prior high at 1.4280.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 1.4251 turns the false break into a range break lower
Clearance of the asian high at 1.4270 puts the prior high at 1.4280 in play
Failure to hold the london low at 1.4243 exposes the prior low at 1.4238
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday down-leg, early bounce · RSI 44 · price 1.42537
False break above Asian high, then lower high and lower low below Asian range.
London open pushed through the Asian high to a 1.4270 london high, then got rejected. A 1.4264 lower high gave way to a break below the 1.4251 asian low and a 1.4243 session low, despite the firm USD backdrop. Price has recovered to 1.4254 after a 10-pip bounce in the 08:30 UTC bar as Waller spoke, still below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4264, 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4264 lower high puts price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold the 1.4251 asian low re-exposes the 1.4243 session low and yesterday's 1.4238 swing low
Reclaiming the 1.4270 london high negates the false-break read; 1.4280 prior high sits above
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Musalem 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken to the downside, lower highs since 1.4270.
London broke below the 1.4251 Asian low and printed a 1.4243 session low, extending the selloff from the 1.4270 Asian high even with USD firm after the hawkish Fed minutes. RSI(14) at 33 with price below both EMAs; yesterday's NY swing low at 1.4238 sits just underneath.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4238, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4251 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the break
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low exposes the 1.4220 range base from yesterday's pre-rally consolidation
Reclaiming the 38.2–50% fib of the London selloff (~1.4253–1.4257) would mark the drop as stalling below the 1.4270 Asian high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend from London open · RSI 34 · price 1.42464
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 05:45 UTC.
London open pushed USD/CAD out of the 1.4250–1.4270 Asian range. It slid 27 pips from the asian high to a 1.4243 london low, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs despite the firm USD backdrop in the digest. Price is basing just under the broken asian low, and yesterday's NY pullback prior low at 1.4238 sits just beneath.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4250 asian low and the 50% fib near 1.4257 turns the London move into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4243 london low and the 1.4238 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could move the pair; above the 1.4270 asian high, the 1.4280 prior high is the next cap
08:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 1.42477
Asian range broken to the downside at London open, price basing at session low.
London open broke the Asian range low at 1.4251 after a lower high at 1.4264 capped the Asian high retest. Price is now stalling at the 1.4246 session low with RSI(14) near 34, despite the hawkish-Fed USD backdrop. Yesterday's 14:45 UTC swing low at 1.4238 is the next reference below, with the 1.4218 prior low from the start of the window further out.
Support: 1.42458, 1.42382, 1.42178
Resistance: 1.42511, 1.42638, 1.42699
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4251 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4246 session low exposes the 1.4238 swing low
A break below the 1.4238 swing low opens the path to the 1.4218 prior low
A close above the 1.4264 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 1.4270 asian high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are a second risk point during NY hours
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 34 · price 1.42478
Lower highs since 05:45 UTC; Asian range broken to the downside at London open.
A false break above the 1.4270 Asian high at 05:45 UTC reversed into London open, which broke the 1.4251 Asian low and printed lower highs into a 1.4247 session low; RSI(14) is near 34. The dip runs against the firm, yield-driven USD backdrop, with Waller at 08:30 UTC the next catalyst.
Support: 1.42466, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42511, 1.42699
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4251 Asian low would mark the range break as failed
Failure to hold the 1.4247 session low exposes yesterday's 1.4238 swing low
A close above the lower-highs trendline, near 1.4264, would invalidate the intraday lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London open broke below the Asian range low after rejection at the Asian high.
Price was rejected at the 1.4270 Asian high late in Asia, then London open broke the 1.4251 Asian low and printed a 1.4247 London low. That low sits on the 50% fib of the 1.4218–1.4280 rally despite the firm USD backdrop. RSI(14) is near 36 and not stretched, with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.42471, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42511, 1.42699, 1.42803
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4251 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4247 London low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4242 and the 1.4238 swing low
Only a reclaim of the 1.4270 Asian high reopens the 1.4280 prior high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 1.4251–1.4270, testing Asian low at London open.
Early London: the pre-open push to the asian high at 1.4270 met rejection and a lower high under Wednesday's 1.4280 prior high. The first London bar dropped to 1.4252, just above the 1.4251 asian low, with RSI(14) near 44. Dollar firmness on yields has stalled into a range despite the hawkish Fed backdrop.
Support: 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4238 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4270 asian high reopens the 1.4280 prior high and negates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside overnight Asian range after failed London-open break higher.
London open pushed through the asian high at 1.4267 to a london high of 1.4270, then reversed to a london low of 1.4256. The failed break puts price back at 1.4262, inside the overnight 1.4251–1.4267 range. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of yesterday's NY drop from the 1.4280 prior high, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and USD still firm on yields.
Support: 1.42557, 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42699, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 london high negates the false break and exposes the 1.4280 prior high
Loss of the 1.4256 london low, then the 1.4251 asian low, opens the 1.4238 ny low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range either way
Asian range 1.4250–1.4270, failed break of the range high.
Late-Asia push above the asian high at 1.4270 failed and price slid back into the range. It now sits near the 61.8% retrace at 1.4257 heading into the London open, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) around 41. Yesterday's yield-driven prior high at 1.4280 caps the upside, with the Asian range still intact.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42803
What it said to watch
Close back above the asian high at 1.4270 negates the false break and puts the 1.4280 prior high back in play
Break below the asian low at 1.4250 opens yesterday's ny low at 1.4238
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC can push price out of the Asian range
1.4251–1.4270 Asian range inside yesterday's 1.4238–1.4280 band.
Late Asia ran to a 1.4270 asian high, then saw a rejection back to the 1.4257 swing low. Price is holding near the 50% retracement of the Asian range at 1.4261, just under EMA20. A series of lower highs has formed since yesterday's 1.4280 prior high, with high US yields keeping the floor firm ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.4257, 1.4251, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4270 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.4280 prior high into play
Loss of the 1.4257 swing low and the 1.4251 asian low exposes yesterday's 1.4238 ny low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Asia drift higher, stalling under the session high · RSI 54 · price 1.42632
Higher lows inside the 1.4251–1.4270 Asian range, capped below the 1.4280 prior high.
Late Asia session: USDCAD built higher lows off the 1.4251 Asian low and tagged a 1.4270 session high, then rejected back to 1.4263, near the 38.2% of the Asian leg. Price sits just above EMA20 and the 1.4260 higher low with RSI(14) neutral at 54. Wednesday's yield-driven spike to 1.4280 is the prior high overhead, and the 1.4238 NY low marks the bottom of that move's flush.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280
What it said to watch
London open in ~45 min: an M15 close above the 1.4270 session high exposes the 1.4280 prior high
Loss of the 1.4260 higher low and the 50% retrace of the Asian leg brings the 1.4251 Asian low into play, then the 1.4238 NY low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late Asia session · RSI 62 · price 1.42673
Higher lows in Asia, session high pressing 61.8% of NY drop.
Asia session has printed higher lows from the 1.4251 swing low and an asia base at 1.4261, pushing a fresh session high at 1.4270 into the 61.8% of Wednesday's NY drop fib, with the dollar still underpinned by 24-year-high yields. Thin Asian ranges keep ATR near 3.4 pips. The prior high at 1.4280, from Wednesday's yields-driven NY spike, sits overhead.
Support: 1.4261, 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42803, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4280 prior high puts the 1.4293 18m high in play
Loss of the 1.4261 asia base breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4251 swing low
Break below 1.4251 reopens the 1.4238 ny low
London open in ~1h, then Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tight coil under the asian high, higher lows since 1.42511.
Wednesday's yield-driven spike topped at the prior high of 1.42803 during the London-NY transition, then pulled back to the ny low of 1.42382. Since then the pair has printed higher lows, with the asian low at 1.42511 the latest. Late Asia is coiling in a 1.4260–1.4267 band just under the asian high, with a range floor at 1.42597, RSI(14) near 64 and ATR(14) about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42597, 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.42674 opens the prior high at 1.42803
Loss of the range floor at 1.42597 and the asian hl line puts the asian low at 1.42511 back in play
Break below the asian low exposes the ny low at 1.42382
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing below the Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.42625
Asian range 1.4251–1.4267, higher low at 1.4260, tight coil.
Yesterday's yield-driven spike to the 1.4280 prior high during the London-NY transition faded to a 1.4238 NY low, holding just beyond the 61.8% of the rally fib before NY rebuilt to 1.4260. Asia has printed a higher low off the 1.4251 Asian low, and price is now coiling on a 1.4260 micro floor just under the 1.4267 Asian high. ATR is near 3 pips, so the range is very tight.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 Asian high breaks the Asia range and puts the 1.4280 prior high back in view
Loss of the 1.4260 micro floor and the Asia higher-low trendline returns price to the 1.4251 Asian low; below that, the 1.4238 NY low comes into view
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the current compression
05:16 UTC
Sideways after a faded NY spike · RSI 57 · price 1.42613
Tight Asian range inside the prior NY swing.
Wednesday's yield-driven spike to the 1.4280 NY high faded to the 1.4238 NY low. Asia has since boxed price between the 1.4251 range floor and the 1.4267 Asian high, with the floor holding three times since the NY afternoon. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib retracement of that drop, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 3.6 pips, so there is no directional impulse ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 Asian high takes price past the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.4280 NY high
Failure at the 1.4251 range floor reopens the 1.4238 NY low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range
05:03 UTC
Sideways, upper half of Asian range · RSI 54 · price 1.42623
Asian range 1.4251–1.4267, higher lows since 02:00 UTC.
Late Asia session. Price is compressing near 1.4262 inside the 1.4251–1.4267 Asian range after the 02:00 UTC dip to the Asian low drew demand and produced a run of rising lows above the 1.4260 micro pivot. Yesterday's yield-driven spike to the 1.4280 prior high reversed hard to the 1.4238 NY low during NY hours, and the hawkish FOMC-minutes backdrop has kept price in a tight band since. ATR(14) is near 3.6 pips with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4251, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 Asian high exposes the 1.4280 prior high
Loss of the 1.4260 micro pivot and the rising-lows line puts the 1.4251 Asian low back in play
A break below 1.4251 shifts focus to the 1.4238 NY low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the Asian range
Asian range 1.4251–1.4267 inside a wider 1.4238–1.4280 range, lower highs off the session high.
Wednesday's yield-driven USD surge topped at the 1.4280 session high, and price has since compressed into a 1.4238 swing low to 1.4280 band. Asia is holding 1.4251–1.4267, with rising Asian lows and price hugging the ema20 near 1.4260 in the upper half of the range. RSI(14) is neutral around 50 and ATR is about 4 pips, so there is no directional impulse in play.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4280 session high back in view
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4260 and the rising Asian lows line shifts focus back to the 1.4251 asian low
Break of 1.4251 exposes the 1.4238 swing low and the base of the post-rally range
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4251–1.4267, holding mid-upper half.
Late Asia session: USDCAD holds 1.4262 inside the Asian range after demand stepped in at the 1.4251 asian low, printing a higher low near 1.4260. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the NY sell-off fib from the 1.4280 prior high to the 1.4238 swing low, the leg that followed the yield-driven USD push at the NY open.
Support: 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 asian high into London open exposes the 1.4280 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4251 asian low breaks the asia higher low line and opens the 1.4238 swing low
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.4251–1.4267 inside a 12h consolidation below the day high.
Wednesday's yield-driven rally through the London-NY transition stalled at the 1.4280 day high. The pullback ran past the 61.8% of the rally fib to the 1.4238 swing low before buyers stepped back in. Late Asia, price sits mid-range between the 1.4251 asian low and the 1.4267 asian high, hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR(14) about 4 pips. No directional setup is in play.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 asian high exposes the 1.4280 day high
Failure to hold the 1.4251 asian low reopens the 1.4238 swing low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Sideways after yesterday's spike · RSI 47 · price 1.42603
Tight Asian range inside the post-spike NY range.
Yesterday's yield-driven spike to the 1.4280 day high faded to a 1.4238 swing low in NY. Price has since compressed into a 1.4250–1.4267 Asian range, pivoting near the 38.2% of the rally fib with RSI(14) neutral around 47 late in the Asia session, ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 asian high opens a retest of the 1.4280 day high
Failure to hold the 1.4250 asian low exposes the 1.4238 swing low and the 61.8% of the rally fib
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since NY low · RSI 49 · price 1.4261
Asian range 1.4250–1.4267 inside NY range.
Yesterday's yield-driven USD spike into the NY open topped at the 1.4280 NY high, then faded to the 1.4238 NY low. Asia session is ranging between the 1.4251 Asian low and the 1.4267 Asian high, with price near the 61.8% retrace of the NY selloff. Rising lows remain intact, RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 Asian high opens the 1.4280 NY high, with the 1.4293 18m high above it
Failure to hold the 1.4251 Asian low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.4238 NY low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Sideways-up, higher lows after NY spike · RSI 57 · price 1.42641
Asian range 1.4251–1.4267, price testing the top.
The London-NY transition spike to the 1.4280 prior high faded but held near the 61.8% of the spike fib at the 1.4238 ny low. Since then, lows have stepped up to the 1.4251 asian low. Late in the Asia session, price is back at the 1.4267 asian high, with RSI(14) at 57 and the hawkish-Fed/yields backdrop keeping USD supported.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4267 asian high exposes the 1.4280 prior high, then the 1.4300 18m high
Failure to hold 1.4251 asian low breaks the higher lows line and reopens 1.4238 ny low
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Recovering within a post-rally range · RSI 57 · price 1.42639
Higher lows off 1.4238, Asia retesting its own high.
Wednesday's yield-driven rally ran from 1.4219 to the 1.4280 prior high during the London-NY transition. It then retraced to the 1.4238 pullback low and spent NY hours ranging 1.4250–1.4261, above the fib 38.2 at 1.4257. In the Asia session price extended to a 1.4267 Asian high, faded to a 1.4251 swing low and is now back testing that high, with RSI(14) at a neutral 57.
Support: 1.4257, 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42803, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 Asian high opens the 1.4280 prior high, with the 1.4293 18m high above
Failure to hold the 1.4251 swing low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 1.4238 pullback low
Loss of the fib 38.2 at 1.4257 shifts the read back to the range floor
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Sideways after a failed spike, momentum neutral · RSI 54 · price 1.42599
1.4251–1.4267 range below the 1.4280 session high.
Wednesday's yield-driven USD bid ran USDCAD to a 1.4280 session high into the NY open. It then reversed to a 1.4238 NY low, and price has since compressed in a 1.4251–1.4267 band. Asia was rejected at the Asian high, and demand reappeared at the Asian low near the fib 50% of the 1.4219–1.4280 leg. RSI(14) is neutral around 54 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.42511, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4267 Asian high exposes the 1.4280 session high
Loss of the 1.4251 Asian low and fib 50% shifts focus to the 1.4238 NY low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range
Asia range 1.4250–1.4267 inside the 1.4238–1.4280 band.
Wednesday's yield-driven spike to 1.4280 (day high) in the London-NY transition retraced about 70% of the NY rally fib into the 1.4238 NY low. Since then price has been rotating between 1.4250 and 1.4267 through late Asia. The Asian high at 1.4267 drew a rejection, the Asian low at 1.4250 has held twice, and RSI(14) is neutral near 49 with ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 asian low breaks the Asia range and exposes the 1.4238 ny low
Close above the 1.4267 asian high reopens the 1.4280 day high, with the 1.4300 18m high as the cap above
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.4267 under the 1.4280 spike high; Asian range 1.4250–1.4267.
Wednesday's NY-hours spike to the ny high at 1.4280, driven by the yield-led USD bid, has been pared back into a 1.4250–1.4267 Asian range. The Asia session saw a rejection at the asian high of 1.4267, and price is back at the asian low of 1.4251, holding between the 38.2% and fib 50% (1.4248) retracement of the 1.4216–1.4280 leg. Price is below both EMAs and RSI(14) is neutral at 46.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4248, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.4251 and the fib 50% at 1.4248 exposes the ny low at 1.4238
Reclaim of the asian high at 1.4267 reopens the ny high at 1.4280 and the 18m high near 1.4300
Fed's Waller speaks at 08:30 UTC, ahead of jobless claims at 12:30 UTC; either could shift this read through US yields
02:16 UTC
Intraday range, short-term pullback from Asia high · RSI 42 · price 1.42517
Asia push above NY range top failed; price back on the 1.4250 range floor.
Asia lifted USDCAD to an asia high of 1.4267 on the persistent yield-driven USD bid. The push stalled well short of Wednesday's 1.4280 ny high and has now fully reversed, putting price back on the 1.4250 range floor of the NY afternoon, which also lines up with the 50% fib of Wednesday's rally. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR(14) about 3.7 pips, so conditions are compressed mid-Asia session.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range floor exposes the 1.4238 swing low from Wednesday's post-spike flush
Reclaim of the 1.4267 asia high turns the move back into a test of the 1.4280 ny high
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read via US 10y yields
02:02 UTC
Range after rally, Asian push faded · RSI 46 · price 1.42543
Lower high at 1.4267 under 1.4280 prior high; back at Asian low.
The yield-driven rally to the 1.4280 prior high has settled into a 1.4250–1.4261 range, retracing toward the 50% level of the rally fib. The Asia session pushed to 1.4267, printing a lower high, then reversed back to the 1.4250 Asian low. Price sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 Asian low exposes the 1.4238 swing low
Reclaiming the 1.4267 Asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.4280 prior high
1.4300 ytd high stays the upside cap in the CAD digest
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read via yields
01:46 UTC
Sideways after yield-driven rally, Asia push faded · RSI 56 · price 1.42587
Post-rally range 1.4250–1.4267, Asian high rejected.
The yield-driven USD bid that lifted the pair to the 1.4280 rally high has been consolidating near its 38.2% rally fib, with FOMC minutes producing little follow-through. The mid-Asia session push to the 1.4267 asian high met rejection, and price has slipped under the Asia trendline back to 1.4259, just below EMA20.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4253 asian low puts the 1.4250 swing low back in play
Recovery through the 1.4267 asian high reopens the 1.4280 rally high
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.4238; NY range top broken in Asia.
Yield-driven USD demand lifted the pair to a session high at 1.4280 at the London-NY transition. The pullback stalled at the 1.4238 swing low, about a 69% retrace of that rally on the fib. Higher lows followed, and Asia has now cleared the 1.4250–1.4263 range that held through NY and the FOMC minutes, last at 1.4266.
Support: 1.42634, 1.4250, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4263 range top returns price to the NY range
Failure to hold the 1.4250 asia low breaks the higher-lows sequence
A close above the 1.4280 session high opens the 1.4300 round number, near the 18-month high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia break above NY afternoon range top, higher lows.
Asia session has pushed USD/CAD through the 1.4263 range top that capped the NY afternoon, printing a session high at 1.4267 along the Asia trendline with RSI(14) near 71. The move extends the yield-driven NY rally that topped at 1.4280 (ny high), where the pullback held 1.4238 (ny low) just above the 61.8% fib of the NY breakout leg.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4263 range top turns the Asia break into a false break
Loss of the 1.4250 rollover low breaks the Asia higher-low chain
Clean push through 1.4280 ny high reopens the NY session extreme
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift USD yields and this read
1.4250–1.4263 range after rejected spike; Asia testing range top.
Rising US yields lifted the pair about 61 pips into the 1.4280 prior high around the London-NY transition, where it met rejection. The pullback held the 1.4238 ny swing low, and NY then ranged 1.4250–1.4263 with a muted reaction to the FOMC Minutes. Asia session is now probing the range top at the 1.4265 asian high, with RSI(14) near 67 and price holding above the ema20.
Support: 1.4260, 1.4250, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42803
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 asian high breaks the range top; the 1.4280 prior high is the next reference
Slip back below the ema20 at 1.4260 returns price to the middle of the range
Loss of the 1.4250 range low reopens the 1.4238 ny swing low, near the 61.8% of the rally fib
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could move yields and shift this read
Higher low at 1.4250 after NY drop, Asia lifting out of 1.4250–1.4261 range.
Yield-driven USD demand spiked the pair to a 1.4280 session high in the London-NY transition. The first hour of NY then retraced to a 1.4238 NY low, and price held 1.4250–1.4261 through the FOMC Minutes. Asia has lifted off the 1.4250 range base, forming a higher low, and is now testing the 61.8% fib of the NY drop near 1.4265 with RSI(14) around 70.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 61.8% fib opens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4293 18m high above
Failure back below the 1.4250 range base breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.4238 NY low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.42622
Post-rally range 1.4250–1.4264, higher lows in Asia.
The yields-driven USD bid lifted the pair from 1.4219 to a 1.4280 day high in early NY. The pullback found its swing low at 1.4238, near the 61.8% retracement, and price has since held a 1.4250–1.4264 range that the FOMC Minutes failed to break. Early Asia session is pushing the range top at 1.4264 with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR at roughly 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4264, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4264 range top opens the path toward the 1.4280 day high
Loss of the 1.4250 range low, where the rollover and pre-Minutes lows sit, re-exposes the 1.4238 swing low and 61.8% fib
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Range 1.4250–1.4263 after US-morning spike and pullback.
USD/CAD spiked to the 1.4280 day high in the US morning on the Treasury-yield surge. It then pulled back to the 1.4238 NY low, near the 61.8% fib of the leg, and has held the 1.4250 range floor since, with little reaction to the FOMC Minutes. Early Asia session is pressing the late NY high at 1.4263, RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42634, 1.42803, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4263 late ny high opens the path back to the 1.4280 day high
Failure to hold the 1.4250 range floor exposes the 1.4238 ny low and the 61.8% fib
1.4300 18m high caps the upside; a test there would extend beyond the current range
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could break the range
00:02 UTC
Sideways after rejected rally · RSI 49 · price 1.42579
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below 1.4280 session high.
A yield-driven USD bid lifted the pair from 1.4218 to a 1.4280 session high into the NY open. Rejection there sent price back to the 1.4238 swing low, near the 61.8% of the rally fib. Since then, through the FOMC Minutes, price has compressed between the 1.4250 range low and 1.4263 range top, and early Asia session is drifting mid-range near the 38.2% level.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 swing low and 61.8% of the rally fib
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the range ahead of US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC