USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
NY recovery stalling, drifting lower into rollover · RSI 48 · price 1.41184
Lower highs from 1.4136 NY high, tight coil 1.4109–1.4122 above late NY low.
London's slide below the Asian low found a floor at 1.4077. The NY rally to 1.4136 tracked falling oil rather than broad USD strength, then met rejection at the NY high. Since then price has faded on lower highs and is coiling at 1.4110–1.4120 near Friday's high, holding the 38.2% of the London-NY leg and the late NY low at 1.4109; RSI(14) is neutral near 48.
Support: 1.41094, 1.40991, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41236, 1.41362
What it said to watch
Break below the late ny low at 1.4109 exposes the 50% retrace near 1.4107 and the asian low at 1.4099
M15 close above the asian high at 1.4124 ends the lower-highs sequence, with the ny high at 1.4136 the next cap
Loss of the london low at 1.4077 would erase Monday's NY reversal
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could reset this range; WTI direction is also feeding CAD
23:31 UTC
Intraday range after NY reversal faded · RSI 49 · price 1.41175
Double top at 1.4136, now consolidating inside Asian range.
London cut through the 1.4098–1.4124 Asian range to a 1.4077 London low. NY then reversed it to a 1.4136 NY high as oil-driven CAD weakness outweighed a softer dollar. Two failures at that high formed an intraday double top, and the late-session break back under the 1.4124 Asian high leaves price consolidating 1.4109–1.4122 in thin post-NY trade, still above the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg.
Support: 1.41094, 1.40979, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41236, 1.41362
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4124 Asian high (double-top neckline) negates the pattern and reopens the 1.4136 NY high
Loss of the 1.4109 late low and the 1.4107 50% retrace exposes the 1.4098 Asian low, then the 1.4077 London low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, plus oil/Iran headlines, could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Pullback from NY high, now flat · RSI 42 · price 1.41168
Double top at 1.4136 broken, early-Asia range 1.4109–1.4122.
Monday's NY-hours rally from the 1.4077 day low, driven by sliding oil, stalled in a double top at 1.4136. The late-NY drop broke the 1.4124 neckline. Early Asia is now ranging between the 1.4109 session low and the 1.4122 range top, holding near the 38.2% retracement of the rally, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.4109, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4122, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.4109 session low exposes the 50% retracement near 1.4107 and then the 1.4077 day low
M15 close back above the 1.4122 range top reopens the 1.4136 double top
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; oil and Iran headlines continue to feed CAD
Double top at 1.4136, lower highs since the late-NY drop.
The NY session ran from the 1.4077 london low to 1.4136 as oil slid, but a second rejection at that double top in late NY sent price back below the 1.4124 asian high. Early Asia is sitting on the 1.4109 late low, near the 38.2% retrace of the rally, with RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 1.4109, 1.4099, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4109 late low opens the 50% retrace near 1.4107 and the 1.4099 asian low
Recovery above the 1.4124 asian high puts the 1.4136 double top back in play
Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could reset the range; oil headlines remain the CAD driver
22:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY rally, momentum soft · RSI 33 · price 1.41135
NY rally capped by a double top at 1.4136; late-NY lower highs into early Asia.
The Asia–London slide to the 1.4077 day low reversed in NY as oil-led CAD weakness lifted the pair to a double top at 1.4136. The late-NY pullback is now pressing the 1.4111 late low, right at the 38.2% NY rally fib, with RSI(14) near 33 and price under both EMAs into early Asia.
Support: 1.4111, 1.4098, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4122, 1.4128, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4111 late low exposes the 50% NY rally fib near 1.4107 and the 1.4098 asian low
A close back above the 1.4122 range top and 1.4128 asian high would ease the double top read
An M15 close above the 1.4136 double top resumes the NY uptrend; a move back to the 1.4077 day low would fully retrace it
Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC Tue) could materially shift this read; WTI direction is still steering CAD
22:16 UTC
Intraday recovery stalled, fading off NY high · RSI 36 · price 1.41176
Tight range 1.4115–1.4122 after late-NY drop, above 38.2% fib.
London sold through the Asian low to 1.4077, then NY reversed the move to a 1.4136 NY high above the Asian high as oil slid and CAD weakened despite a softer dollar. A late-NY drop has pulled price back into a 1.4115–1.4122 band. That band sits just above the 38.2% fib of the London low–NY high leg, with RSI(14) near 36 and price capped by the ema20.
Support: 1.41145, 1.4098, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4122, 1.4128, 1.41362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4114 late-ny low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4107 and the 1.4098 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.4122 ema20 reopens the 1.4128 asian high and 1.4136 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.4077 london low would erase the whole NY recovery
WTI direction drives CAD; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (Waller 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.4136, 1.4124 neckline broken, base forming at 38.2% fib.
Oil-driven CAD weakness lifted USDCAD from the 1.4077 day low at London open to a 1.4136 double top in NY. After 19:30 UTC price broke the 1.4124 neckline and has based for two hours at the 1.4115 NY low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the rally. Price is pinned to the 50-EMA, RSI(14) is near 37, and ATR is under 5 pips heading into the Asia session.
Support: 1.41145, 1.40962, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.41362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4115 NY low exposes the 1.4096 swing low and the 61.8% fib near 1.4100
Reclaim of the 1.4124 neckline negates the double top read and reopens 1.4136
Loss of the 1.4096 swing low puts the 1.4077 day low back in play
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC Tue) are the next catalysts after the Asia session
Double top at 1.4136, neckline broken, holding 38.2% fib.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4098 and printed 1.4077. NY then reversed it in a 59-pip rally to 1.4136 as oil slid, with CAD weakening even as the dollar softened broadly. A double top at 1.4136 gave way after London close, the break below the 1.4124 neckline stalled at the 1.4114 swing low near the 38.2% retracement, and price is now basing there in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.41145, 1.41066, 1.40979
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.41362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4114 swing low opens the 50% fib at 1.4107, then the Asian low at 1.4098
Reclaim of the 1.4124 neckline neutralises the double top read
Double top at 1.4136 caps the NY rally; a close above it resumes the HH chain
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC Tue) are the next scheduled catalysts; WTI moves remain the live driver overnight
21:31 UTC
Intraday up-leg fading into late NY · RSI 37 · price 1.41175
NY rally off session low, late range break lower from 1.4124–1.4136 shelf.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.4077 session low, then NY reversed through the asian high to a 1.4136 session high as oil slid and CAD weakened. A late-NY range break off the 1.4124–1.4136 shelf has pulled price to 1.4115–1.4120, holding the late low at the 38.2% retrace with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.41147, 1.40979, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41362
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the late low at 1.4115 (38.2% retrace) exposes the asian low near 1.4098 and the 1.4077 session low
Recovery above the asian high at 1.4128 reopens the 1.4136 session high
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.4136, neckline broken, basing above 38.2% fib.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.4077 london low. NY reversed that into a 1.4136 session high as CAD tracked sliding oil despite a softer dollar. A lower high at 1.4136 then gave way to a late-NY drop through the 1.4124 neckline, and price is now basing just above the 1.4115 late ny low near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at 34.
Support: 1.41147, 1.41066, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.41362
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4115 late ny low opens the fib 50% at 1.4107, then the 1.4077 london low
Reclaim of the 1.4124 neckline negates the double top read; the 1.4136 session high caps above
Thin Asia session ahead; Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London drove USDCAD to a 1.4077 session low before NY reversed it. NY cleared the Asian range and stalled at the 1.4136 session high, with CAD tracking softer oil despite a weaker dollar. A late-NY break of the 1.4126 range floor pulled price back to a 1.4115 late low, near the 38.2% of the NY rally, with RSI(14) around 35 and price under the EMA20.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4098, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4126, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4126 range floor negates the late-NY range break; 1.4136 session high caps above
Failure to hold the 1.4115 late low exposes the 1.4098 Asian low, then the 1.4077 session low
Oil and US-Iran headlines are the main driver into the Asia session; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and BoC Deliberations 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Rally from London low rejected, pulling back · RSI 35 · price 1.4118
Double top at 1.4136, 1.4124 neckline broken; back inside the Asian range.
London broke the Asian low (1.4098) down to a 1.4077 London low, then NY reversed it as sliding oil weighed on CAD. The rally stalled at 1.4136, matching Friday's high to form a double top. Late NY slipped through the 1.4124 neckline and is holding about 31% back into the fib retrace of the London low to NY high move, RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4098, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4115 late-NY low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4114 and the 1.4098 Asian low
An M15 close back above the 1.4124 neckline negates the double top read; 1.4136 remains the cap
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC), then US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY rally · RSI 32 · price 1.41149
Double top at 1.4136, neckline broken late NY.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.4077 session low before NY reversed it, rallying to a double top at 1.4136 as oil-led CAD weakness outweighed a softer dollar. Late-NY selling has broken the 1.4124 neckline and the rally trendline, leaving price at the 38.2% retrace and on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4096, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Holding the 50% fib at 1.4107 keeps the NY rally structure intact. Losing the 1.4096 swing low exposes the london low at 1.4077.
An M15 close back above the 1.4124 neckline negates the double top read.
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts for this read.
London low 1.4077 reversed in NY; triple cap at 1.4136, range floor 1.4124 lost.
London broke the Asian low and printed the London low at 1.4077, then NY reversed it as oil weakness weighed on CAD despite a softer dollar. The rally hit a triple cap at 1.4136, matching Friday's late high. Late NY dropped back through the 1.4124 range floor to a 1.4119 NY low, with RSI(14) near 38 and price testing the 23.6% fib.
Support: 1.4119, 1.4110, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4124 range floor restores the afternoon range read
Failure to hold the 1.4119 NY low exposes the 1.4110 pivot zone and the 38.2% fib
Break below 1.4110 puts the 1.4077 London low back in focus
Clearance of the 1.4136 triple cap invalidates the rejection read
Fed's Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC and US CPI is due at 13:30 UTC Tue; either could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Intraday up from London low, now stalling · RSI 48 · price 1.41254
NY rally capped in 1.4124–1.4136 range, double top testing the floor.
The NY rally off the 1.4077 London low cleared the Asian range on oil-led CAD weakness, then stalled into a double top at 1.4136. A late-NY spike to 1.4119 pierced the 1.4124 range floor before closing back on it, leaving price below the ema20 near 1.4130 with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4119, 1.4114
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4119 spike low confirms the double top and exposes the 38.2% fib of the NY rally at 1.4114
A reclaim of the ema20 near 1.4130 puts price back inside the 1.4124–1.4136 range
M15 close above the 1.4136 double top extends the NY rally structure
Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL from 1.4077 session low; tight 1.4124–1.4137 range late NY.
USD/CAD reversed from the 1.4077 session low in London. During NY hours it broke above the 1.4128 Asian range high as sliding oil weighed on CAD, even with the dollar softer. The move met rejection three times at 1.4136, just under Friday's 1.4137 prior high, and late NY is consolidating above the 1.4124 pullback low with RSI(14) flat near 53.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4096, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4137 prior high breaks the three-bar cap and opens the 1.4150 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4124 pullback low, and the rising trendline near it, shifts focus to the 1.4096 higher low
Loss of the 1.4096 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain from the 1.4077 session low
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US October CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, consolidating near highs · RSI 57 · price 1.41332
V-reversal; higher lows since 1.4077, tight range under the session high.
London extended the Asia drift to a 1.4077 low before NY reversed it, clearing the Asian high near 1.4128 as falling oil weighed on CAD despite a softer dollar. Late NY is compressing just under the 1.4136 session high, which sits alongside Friday's 1.4137 top. The 1.4124 pullback low held above the rising trendline and the 23.6% fib; RSI(14) is neutral near 57.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4110, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 session high clears Friday's 1.4137 top and opens the 1.4150 round number
Break below the 1.4124 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 38.2% fib and the 1.4110 pivot zone
Loss of 1.4110 would put the London low at 1.4077 back in play
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, with Waller earlier at 09:00, could materially shift this read; WTI direction remains the main CAD driver
Higher low at 1.4124 after NY reversal; capped at 1.4136.
USD/CAD reversed from the 1.4077 London session low during NY hours. The roughly 59-pip leg stalled three times at the 1.4136 NY high as lower oil weighed on CAD despite the softer dollar. The shallow pullback held the 1.4124 pullback low above the 23.6% fib, and late in the session price is pressing the NY high again, a pip under the 1.4137 Friday high.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4137 friday high breaks the NY high cluster and extends the HH chain
Failure at 1.4124 pullback low reopens the 1.4110 pivot zone near the 38.2% fib
Oil/Iran headlines in thin post-NY trade; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
V-recovery from London low, tight post-London consolidation.
Lower oil weighed on CAD, lifting the pair from the London low at 1.4077 through the 1.4110 pivot zone and the Asian range high in NY hours. Price stalled at the 1.4136 session high near Friday's late high, with three rejections there. The pullback low at 1.4124 has held since, and price has sat in a 7-pip band after London close. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4110, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 session high opens the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the 1.4124 pullback low breaks the rally trendline and exposes the 1.4110 pivot zone
Break back below the 1.4077 London low would erase the NY rally fib structure
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling · RSI 65 · price 1.41312
NY reversed the London slide to 1.4077, broke the Asian high at 1.4128 and filled Sunday's opening gap as sliding crude weighed on CAD despite a softer USD. Supply capped three bars at the 1.4136 session high, just under Friday's 1.4137. Late NY is holding a 1.4124–1.4136 box, with RSI(14) at 65 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4124, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 session high clears the triple cap and Friday's 1.4137 high
Loss of the 1.4124 pullback low and the 1.4128 Asian high exposes the 1.4110 prior cap, near the 38.2% of the NY rally
Break of the trendline from the London low (near 1.4120) would end the higher-low sequence
Waller Tue 09:00 GMT, then US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, are the next scheduled risks to this read
18:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under day high · RSI 60 · price 1.41312
London false break below Asian low, NY V-reversal, now consolidating 1.4124–1.4133.
London broke below the 1.4099 Asian low to a 1.4077 day low before NY reversed the move, with sliding oil weighing on CAD. The rally was rejected three times at the 1.4136 day high, which sits at Friday's late high. Price is now holding late-NY above the 1.4124 pullback low and the 61.8% fib of the day's rally.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4110, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 day high opens the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the 1.4124 pullback low exposes the 1.4110 breakout area and the rally trendline
Oil and Iran headlines after today's Trump–Qatar meeting could shift CAD; Waller and US CPI on Tuesday are the next scheduled risks
18:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend after NY reversal, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 1.41284
Higher lows off 1.4077, tight 1.4124–1.4136 consolidation below the session high.
The Asia-London slide bottomed at the 1.4077 session low. From there, a NY rally on soft CAD and sliding oil reclaimed the 1.4108 breakout level and ran to a 1.4136 session high, which was capped three times just under Friday's 1.4137. Late in NY, price is compressing above the 1.4124 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooled to around 61 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4108, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 session high clears Friday's high and opens the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the 1.4124 pullback low puts the 1.4108 breakout level and the 38.2% retrace in play
Break of the rising trendline from the 1.4077 session low would undo the NY reversal structure
Oil and US–Iran headlines in thin post-NY trade could move this read before Waller and US CPI on Tuesday
17:31 UTC
Uptrend off London low, stalling below session high · RSI 66 · price 1.41276
V-reversal from 1.4077; Asian range high cleared; tight range 1.4124–1.4133 under 1.4136.
London drove USDCAD to a 1.4077 london low before NY reversed it, clearing the Asian range high near 1.4128 as sliding crude kept CAD heavy despite a softer USD. Three tags of the 1.4136 session high, which lines up with Friday's high, drew a rejection. Price is now coiling between the 1.4124 pullback low and a 1.4133 lower high after London close, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4101, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4133, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 session high clears the triple-tap rejection and Friday's high
Loss of the 1.4124 pullback low exposes the 1.4101 breakout base and the rally trendline near 1.4115
Fib 23.6% at ~1.4122 is holding; a slide through 38.2% at ~1.4114 would undercut the NY rally
Headlines from the Trump–Qatar PM meeting and oil moves could shift CAD into the late NY session
17:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling at highs · RSI 67 · price 1.41326
V-reversal; NY broke above Asian range, shallow pullback holding.
London extended the Asian slide to 1.4077. NY then reversed it, clearing the Asian high near 1.4128 and capping three times at the 1.4136 session high, just under Friday's 1.4137. The dip after London close held the 1.4124 pullback low, above the 23.6% of the NY rally fib; RSI(14) is near 67, with sliding oil keeping CAD heavy.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4096
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 session high opens the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the 1.4124 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the ny base at 1.4096 and the 50% NY rally fib near 1.4107 below
Trump–Qatar PM meeting headlines, Barkin (now) and Waller (Tue 09:00 GMT) ahead of Tue US CPI could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, stalling · RSI 64 · price 1.41299
NY broke above Asian range; higher lows, capped at prior high.
NY reversed London's slide to the 1.4077 london low and broke the Asian range high near 1.4128 as sliding oil kept CAD heavy despite broad USD softness. Three tests of 1.4136 stalled just under Friday's prior high at 1.4137, and the pullback held the 1.4124 swing low with RSI(14) cooling to ~64.
Support: 1.4124, 1.41136, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4137 prior high clears Friday's top and extends the NY leg
Loss of the 1.4124 swing low exposes the 38.2 fib near 1.4114 and the rising line from the london low
Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) and Fed's Barkin (17:15 GMT) could shift oil and USD within the next few bars
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, stalling · RSI 63 · price 1.41279
Higher lows since 1.4077; NY high capped at 1.4136.
London extended the Asian drift to a 1.4077 session low before NY reversed it, with sliding crude weighing on CAD. The pair broke the Asian range high and ran 59 pips to the 1.4136 NY high. Three bars stalled there, just under Friday's 1.4137 high. The pullback low at 1.4124 is holding, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4096, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 NY high clears Friday's high and opens the 1.4150 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4124 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4114 and the 1.4096 NY base
Break of the rising trendline from the 1.4077 session low would negate the higher-low chain
Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) and Fed's Barkin (17:15 GMT) could swing oil and USD within the next few bars
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, stalling at Friday's high · RSI 64 · price 1.4127
NY reversal from the London low through the Asian high, then equal highs at Friday's high.
After Monday's gap lower, London extended below the Asian range to 1.4077. The NY session then reversed the move in a 59-pip leg to 1.4136, with sliding oil keeping CAD heavy. That leg stalled three times just under Friday's high at 1.4137, and price is now easing back to the Asian high at 1.4128 as RSI(14) cools from the high 60s.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4110, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4137
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Friday high at 1.4137 voids the rejection read
Failure to hold the 1.4110 breakout pt, near the 38.2% fib, puts the rising NY trendline into play
A break of the rising NY trendline exposes the 1.4077 london low
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT (oil/risk) and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 GMT could shift this read within the hour
16:16 UTC
Intraday V-recovery, stalling at prior high · RSI 68 · price 1.41307
Higher lows from London low; Asian high broken, capped at Friday high.
London extended the Asian drift to a 1.4077 london low before NY reversed it, clearing the 1.4127 asian high on a run of higher lows. Supply capped the move at 1.4136 three bars running, just under the 1.4137 friday high. RSI(14) is cooling near 68 and price sits on the asian high.
Support: 1.4127, 1.4101, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4137 friday high opens the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the 1.4127 asian high puts the 1.4101 swing low and the 61.8% of the london-ny leg in play
A break of rising support from the london low undoes the NY recovery structure
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 GMT could shift this read within the hour
16:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, stalling at highs · RSI 67 · price 1.41307
Higher lows from 1.4077 since late London; NY broke above the Asian range high, capped three times at 1.4136.
USDCAD reversed the Asia-to-London slide from the 1.4077 low, and the NY session broke through the Asian high at 1.4128 as falling crude weighed on CAD despite broad USD softness. The advance has stalled three times at 1.4136, just under Friday's 1.4137 prior high, with RSI(14) easing from the low 70s.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4114, 1.4096
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4137 prior high clears the triple cap and opens the 1.4150 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4128 Asian high puts the 1.4114 fib 38.2 and the rising trendline from the London low back in play
A break of the 1.4096 NY low undercuts the higher-low sequence and the trendline
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 UTC and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC could move oil and USD and shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into Friday high · RSI 76 · price 1.41354
Higher-low chain from London low 1.4077, Asian high broken.
NY session reversed the London low at 1.4077 and broke the Asian high at 1.4128 as sliding crude weighed on CAD. Price is now pressing Friday high at 1.4137 with RSI(14) near 76; the NY swing low at 1.4096 sits on the rising support line from the London low.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4096, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Rejection at Friday high 1.4137 leaves a double test of that level; a close above opens the round number at 1.4150
M15 close back below the Asian high at 1.4128 turns the break into a false break
Loss of the ny swing low at 1.4096 and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain, re-exposing the London low at 1.4077
Trump–Qatar meeting (17:00 UTC) and Fed's Barkin (17:15 UTC) could shift oil and USD and change this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, RSI hot · RSI 74 · price 1.41282
Higher lows through NY session, pressing Asian high.
NY session reversed London's slide to the 1.4077 London low with a chain of higher lows at 1.4096 and the 1.4101 swing low, then broke the 1.4110 pivot to reach the Asian high at 1.4129. Crude near two-month lows is weighing on CAD despite the softer USD tone. RSI(14) at 74 is hot but consistent with the leg, and Friday's 1.4137 high sits just overhead.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4101, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4137 friday high extends the NY leg beyond the post-Friday range
Rejection at the 1.4129 asian high and a close back below the 38.2% fib at 1.4110 would signal the push is stalling
Loss of the 1.4101 swing low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 UTC (oil-sensitive) and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC could shift this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low · RSI 69 · price 1.41166
HH/HL chain from 1.4077, breakout above 1.4110 into upper Asian range.
NY session extended the V-recovery from the 1.4077 London low, breaking the 1.4110 breakout level and pushing back into the upper Asian range as softer crude weighs on CAD. Higher lows at 1.4096 and 1.4101 underpin the move, RSI(14) near 69. The Asian high at 1.4124 and Friday close at 1.4129 mark the weekend gap overhead.
Support: 1.4110, 1.40962, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41236, 1.41293, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4110 breakout level puts price back inside the NY range
M15 close below the 1.4096 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain off the London low
A close above the 1.4124 Asian high and 1.4129 Friday close fills the weekend gap, exposing the 1.4137 Friday high
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 GMT could shift USD and oil within the next few hours
15:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, RSI near 70 · RSI 70 · price 1.41166
Higher lows from 1.4077, pressing the Asian range top.
After a 10-pip weekend gap lower and an Asia-to-London slide to the 1.4077 London low, NY has rebuilt a higher-low chain, with the latest higher low at 1.4101, and printed a 1.4119 NY high. The bounce has retraced nearly 80% of the drop from the 1.4128 Asian high. Sliding crude is weighing on CAD despite broad USD softness. RSI(14) near 70 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.41013, 1.40962, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41192, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4128 Asian high would fill the weekend gap and bring the 1.4137 Friday high into view
A break below the 1.4101 higher low, then the 1.4096 swing low, would undo the NY higher-low chain
Losing the 1.4077 London low would confirm a lower low for the day
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Barkin at 17:15 GMT could materially shift this read via oil and risk tone
14:46 UTC
Recovering from London low, higher lows into NY · RSI 63 · price 1.41072
Higher-low chain from 1.4077, capped at 1.4110 inside Asian range.
London broke the Asian range low and printed a session low at 1.4077. That break failed: higher lows have carried price back above 1.4100 into NY, as oil softness weighs on CAD despite broad USD weakness. Supply is capping the NY high at 1.4110, with the NY swing low at 1.4096 holding twice during the first hour of NY.
Support: 1.40962, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41103, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4110 NY high opens the asian high at 1.4128, then the friday high at 1.4137
Loss of the 1.4096 NY swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 1.4077 session low back in focus
Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD and oil tone this session
14:31 UTC
Intraday rebound from London low, higher lows building · RSI 63 · price 1.41072
HH/HL chain since 1.4077; back inside Asian range, testing session high.
London broke the Asian low near 1.4098 and ran to the 1.4077 london low as crude stayed heavy, but NY has rebuilt a higher-low chain back into the Asian range and retraced about 60% of the drop from the 1.4128 asian high. Price is pressing the 1.4110 session high, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.40962, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41103, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4110 session high opens the 1.4128 asian high
Loss of the 1.4096 higher low breaks the NY higher-low chain and puts the 1.4077 london low back in view
Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) could move USD and oil and shift this read
London lower lows to 1.4077; rebound rejected at 61.8% retrace.
London broke the Asian low near 1.4098 and the Friday low at 1.4090, extending to a session low of 1.4077 as USD softened on Iran-peace hopes and lower Treasury yields. The bounce into the London-NY transition stalled at 1.4109, the 61.8% fib retrace of the Asian high to London low move. Price is now at the 1.4096 swing low early in NY, with RSI(14) near 60, ATR(14) around 6.5 pips, and price only marginally above EMA50.
Support: 1.40962, 1.4090, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41087, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4096 swing low confirms the rejection and exposes the friday low at 1.4090, then the 1.4077 session low
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4109 invalidates the rejection and brings the asian high at 1.4128 and the friday high at 1.4137 into view
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and the oil reaction, plus Fed's Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15), could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range and set a session low at 1.4077 before a higher-low rebound reclaimed 1.4098. In the first hour of NY that rebound hit a rejection at the 1.4109 rebound high, and the pullback low at 1.4096 is sitting on the 38.2% fib and the rising support line. The softer USD on US-Iran peace hopes is offsetting the oil-driven drag on CAD, and RSI(14) near 58 is mid-range with ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.40962, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41091, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4096 pullback low and rising support exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone and the 1.4077 session low
Close above the 1.4109 rebound high opens the Asian high at 1.4128, with the Friday high at 1.4137 behind it
Goolsbee 15:00 / Barkin 17:15 UTC and the Trump–Qatar 17:00 GMT meeting via oil could shift this read
False break of Asian low, then HH/HL chain back into the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4097 to a 1.4077 session low, then reversed in a HH/HL chain along rising support. The bounce reclaimed the Asian range into the NY open, with crude near two-month lows keeping CAD soft. Price is stalling at the 61.8% fib of the Asian decline near 1.4109 after the Asian low held on a retest. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.4097, 1.4085, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4109, 1.4114, 1.4128
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4109 opens the asian swing at 1.4114, then the asian high at 1.4128
Loss of the asian low at 1.4097 and rising support turns the reclaim into a failed recovery; higher low 1.4085 and session low 1.4077 are the next references
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and the oil reaction could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at early NY high · RSI 69 · price 1.41037
Higher highs and higher lows off the 1.4077 London low, back inside the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range and printed a 1.4077 London low. Price then reclaimed the range in a steady higher-low chain as USD pared post-NFP gains. Early NY stalled at the 1.4109 NY high, the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high-to-low drop, with RSI(14) near 69 and the 1.4096 higher low holding.
Support: 1.40961, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41091, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4109 NY high opens the 1.4128 Asian high
Loss of the rising support and the 1.4096 higher low points to a retest of the London low
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and the Trump-Qatar meeting (17:00 UTC) could shift the read via USD and oil
13:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, testing the session high · RSI 66 · price 1.41073
Higher-high/higher-low chain since 10:00 UTC; back inside the Asian range after a London false break.
London broke below the Asian range and printed the london low at 1.4077. Price then reversed into a higher-high/higher-low chain back above 1.4100 into the London-NY transition, with oil-led CAD softness in the background. It is now pressing the session high at 1.4108, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the asian high-to-london low drop, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.40961, 1.4094, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41084, 1.41145, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the session high at 1.4108 extends the chain toward the asia pivot at 1.4114 and the asian high at 1.4128
Failure at the 61.8% retrace, then a break of the 1.4096 higher low and the trendline near 1.4094, would put the london low at 1.4077 back in play
Bowman at 13:40 UTC and the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT (oil/USD headlines) could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
13:03 UTC
Intraday rebound after London low, stalling at 50% retrace · RSI 62 · price 1.40984
False break below Asian low, higher lows from 1.4077.
London broke below the Asian range (1.4098–1.4128) and printed a 1.4077 london low, then built higher lows back to a 1.4103 rebound high, the 50% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop. Price is now holding the 1.4096 minor low and pinned at EMA50 into the London-NY transition, with oil-driven CAD weakness offset by a softer USD.
Support: 1.4096, 1.4085, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4103, 1.4109, 1.4128
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4103 rebound high exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4109 and the 1.4128 asian high
Loss of the 1.4096 minor low and the 1.4085 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the false-break read at risk
Return below the 1.4077 london low resumes the session's lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC), plus the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, corrective rebound in play · RSI 64 · price 1.40978
Lower highs from the Asian high to a 1.4077 London low; higher low at 1.4085, rebound capped at the 50% fib.
Monday's slide ran from the 1.4128 Asian high to a 1.4077 session low in London as USD softened on Iran-peace hopes and the China tariff relief. A higher low at 1.4085 led a rebound that stalled at 1.4103, the 50% fib of the drop. Price is now retesting the broken Asian low near 1.4099 and sits roughly flat to EMA50 ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.40851, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41033, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4103 50% fib exposes the 1.4128 Asian high
Loss of the 1.4085 higher low reopens the 1.4077 session low and resumes the lower-high sequence
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift this read through NY hours
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp rebound from London low · RSI 64 · price 1.40994
HH/HL rebound since 10:00 UTC, testing 50% retrace of Asia-London slide.
Monday's broad USD softening carried USDCAD from the 1.4128 asian high to a 1.4077 london low by 10:00 UTC, before a HH/HL rebound lifted price into 1.4103, the 50% retrace that sits just under the 1.4105 asian low. RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 5 pips into the London-NY transition, with the 11:30 higher low at 1.4085 underpinning the bounce.
Support: 1.40851, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41051, 1.41283
What it said to watch
A close above 1.4105 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.4128 asian high the next reference
Rejection at the 50% fib keeps the lower-high sequence from Asia intact
Break of the rebound line and the 1.4085 higher low exposes the 1.4077 london low
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT, plus the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift USD tone
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp rebound late London · RSI 63 · price 1.40998
Lower highs from 1.4128 into a 1.4077 London low; higher low at 1.4085 and break of 1.4091.
The pair slid through Asia and London to a london low at 1.4077 as the USD gave back NFP gains on risk-on headlines. A higher low at 1.4085 and an 11-pip bar off it have lifted price back to the 1.4100 asian low ahead of the NY open, near the 50% retracement of the asia-london decline.
Support: 1.40851, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4100 asian low and 1.4103 50% fib reopens the 1.4128 asian high, then the 1.4137 friday high
Rejection at 1.4100 followed by a break of the 1.4085 higher low puts the 1.4077 london low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift the USD leg of this read
Asian range broken lower in London; small HL chain off 1.4077 capped below the Asian low.
USD/CAD bled lower from the 1.4128 Asia high, and London broke the 1.4098 Asian low to a 1.4077 session low as the dollar gave back NFP gains on risk-on. Late London is running a shallow higher-low bounce to the 1.4091 bounce high, still below the old Asian low and short of the fib 50% at 1.4103.
Support: 1.40851, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.40913, 1.40979, 1.41027
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low reclaims the broken range and stalls the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.4085 higher low puts the 1.4077 session low back in play
Bowman (13:40 GMT) shortly after NY open, then the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT, could jolt oil and the USD
Lower highs from the Asian high, London break of the Asian range low, shallow bounce capped.
USDCAD gapped lower at the weekly open, then broke the Asian low at 1.4098 in London and printed a session low at 1.4077 as the dollar gave back part of its NFP gains on risk-on headlines. The bounce stalled at 1.4090, the bounce high near the 23.6% retrace, and price is back under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46 late in the London session.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4098, 1.4128
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low puts price inside the Asian range and opens the 38.2% retrace near 1.4097, with the 1.4128 Asian high above
Failure to hold the 1.4077 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4052 NFP low from Friday
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone during NY hours
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs intact, corrective bounce from 1.4077.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.4098 and ran to a 1.4077 session low as the USD softened on Iran-peace and lower-oil headlines. The late-London bounce has edged back above ema20 and is pressing 1.4091, the London breakdown pt and the 23.6% retracement of the Monday decline.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4091, 1.4098, 1.4103
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low, then the 1.4103 50% fib, would neutralise the London range break
Rejection at the 1.4091 breakdown pt and a slip back below ema20 put the 1.4077 session low in focus, with the 1.4052 pre-NFP low below it
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee at 15:00 land in the first hours of NY session and could reprice USD
Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could move oil and the USD together, shifting this read
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, small bounce off session low · RSI 41 · price 1.40854
Lower highs since Sunday open; London broke below the Asian range.
Lower highs since the 1.4128 Asian high. London broke the 1.4098 Asian low and printed a 1.4077 session low as the USD softened on Iran-talk headlines. Price is now bouncing into the 1.4086 bounce high, just under EMA20 and the 23.6% retrace of the Asia-London decline (~1.4089). RSI(14) sits near 41.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4086, 1.4098, 1.4128
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low would negate the London range break
Rejection at the 1.4086 bounce high, then a break of the 1.4077 session low, extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4050 round number
Bowman 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee 15:00, plus the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar Iran meeting, fall in NY hours and could shift the read
Lower highs since the Asia open; Asian range broken lower at London open.
USD is giving back part of Friday's NFP gains. After a small gap lower at the Sunday open, the pair slid through the 1.4098 Asian low at London open and broke the 1.4090 Friday pullback low, reaching a 1.4077 session low about 60 pips off Friday's 1.4137 high. The mid-London bounce stalled at the 1.4086 bounce high, under 23.6% of the fib from the Asia high to the session low. RSI(14) is near 33.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4086, 1.4090, 1.4098
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4077 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4052 pre-NFP low
Reclaim of the 1.4090 Friday pullback level and the 1.4098 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib, invalidates the London breakdown read
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar meeting could shift USD tone during NY hours
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 30 · price 1.40818
London broke below the Asian range, now holding just above the session low.
USD gave back part of Friday's NFP gains on improved risk appetite. Price has printed lower highs under a descending trendline from the 1.4128 Asian high, and London broke the 1.4098 Asian low to set a 1.4077 session low. RSI(14) near 30 with a shallow bounce, still below the fib 50% retracement of the Asia-to-London leg at 1.4103.
Support: 1.4077, 1.40519
Resistance: 1.40979, 1.41027, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low and the descending trendline negates the London breakdown
Recovery through the fib 50% at 1.4103 shifts the read toward a broader Asia-London range
Failure to hold the 1.4077 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4052 pre-NFP low
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could materially shift this read during NY hours
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, first bounce off low · RSI 29 · price 1.40817
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs, lower lows.
USD is giving back part of Friday's NFP gains as risk appetite improves. London broke below the Asian range (1.4098–1.4128) and printed a london low at 1.4077, with RSI(14) near 29. The latest bar bounced to 1.4082 but stays under the lower highs line near 1.4087, with the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London drop sitting near the asian low.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.40875, 1.4098, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Hold above the lower highs line near 1.4087 would break the intraday lower-high chain
Failure at 1.4077 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4052 pre-nfp low
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT into the NY session could shift the read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into oversold · RSI 17 · price 1.40778
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high; Asian range broken lower in London.
USD/CAD has bled about 50 pips from the 1.4128 Asia high. London broke the 1.4098 Asian low as USD gave back part of its NFP gains on lower oil and Iran-peace hopes. London lower highs are capping each bounce, with the latest at 1.4088, and the session low sits at 1.4077 with RSI(14) near 17. The next references are the 1.4068 pre-NFP high and the 1.4059 NFP base, where Friday's spike launched.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4068, 1.4059
Resistance: 1.4088, 1.4098, 1.4128
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4088 lower high breaks the London lower highs trendline and stalls the sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4098 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Hold below the 1.4077 session low exposes the 1.4068 pre-NFP high and the 1.4059 NFP base
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) on December hike odds could shift this read in NY hours
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 24 · price 1.40799
Asian range broken to the downside at London open, lower-high chain intact.
USD/CAD gapped about 10 pips lower at the weekly open, slid out of the Asian range low at 1.4098 into London, and printed a 1.4077 session low as USD gives back part of its post-NFP rally. Lower highs persist through mid-London, and RSI(14) near 24 marks a stretched but not extreme move.
Support: 1.40774, 1.40519
Resistance: 1.40979, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low would mark the break as a false break and neutralise the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.4077 session low extends the sequence toward the 1.4052 Friday low
A move back toward the 1.4128 Asian high would need a reclaim of the 50% retrace near 1.4103 first
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT in the NY session could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs since Asian high, Asian range broken lower.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4098 and pressed to a 1.4082 session low on a steady lower-high sequence from the 1.4128 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 21. USD is giving back part of its NFP rally on oil relief. Two tests of 1.4082 in the past hour have stalled the slide.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4059
Resistance: 1.4091, 1.4098, 1.4128
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4082 session low extends the lower-low chain toward Friday's 1.4059 nfp base
Recovery above the 1.4091 lower high and back inside the Asian range above 1.4098 would mark the break as a false break
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift the USD and oil leg of this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near London low · RSI 31 · price 1.40873
Lower highs and lower lows since Sunday's gap-down open; London broke the Asian low.
USDCAD opened with a 10-pip gap below Friday's close and has bled lower from the 1.4128 Asian high as USD gives back part of its NFP rally. London extended through the 1.4098 Asian low to a 1.4082 London low, with RSI(14) near 31 and the last hour basing just above it.
Support: 1.40816, 1.40587
Resistance: 1.40979, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low, also the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg, breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4082 London low opens the path toward the 1.4059 NFP base from Friday
Recovery toward the 1.4128 Asian high would fill the Sunday gap and neutralise the session downtrend
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD and oil during NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; Asian range broken to the downside.
USDCAD has unwound most of Friday's NFP and Canada-jobs spike as the dollar gives back part of its rally. London broke below the 1.4098 Asian low and printed a 1.4082 session low, capped by a descending trendline from the 1.4128 Asian high. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the NFP leg with RSI(14) near 21, close to oversold extremes.
Support: 1.40816, 1.40684, 1.40519
Resistance: 1.40906, 1.40979, 1.41283
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.4082 session low exposes the 1.4068 pre-NFP high, then the 1.4052 Friday low
A close back above the 1.4091 swing high and the 1.4098 Asian low would break the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift USD tone; US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.40845
Lower highs and lower lows since the Sunday open; Asian range broken lower at London open.
Early in the London session, price broke the Asian low at 1.4098 and Friday's post-NFP pullback low at 1.4090 (friday low). It printed a 1.4082 session low as USD gives back part of its NFP gain. RSI(14) near 24 is oversold, and the Monday downtrend line plus the fib 50% around 1.4105 sit overhead, with the nfp base at 1.4059 the next reference below.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4059
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4098, 1.4105
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 1.4082 session low exposes the 1.4059 nfp base, where Friday's jobs spike started.
A recovery back above the 1.4090 friday low and the 1.4098 asian low would mark the London break as a false break.
A close above the downtrend line and the fib 50% near 1.4105 would end the lower-high sequence.
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC), plus the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift USD and oil during NY hours.
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.40865
Lower highs through Asia, London break of Asian low.
Monday's gap-down drift ran as a chain of lower highs through Asia. London open broke the Asian low at 1.40979 as the USD gave back part of its NFP gain, and price has reached 1.40862, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of Friday's NFP leg, with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 1.40844, 1.40812
Resistance: 1.40979, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.40979 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.40844 exposes Friday's pre-NFP high at 1.40812
A break of the lower highs trendline near 1.4100 ends the Asian descending structure; the Asian high at 1.41283 caps above
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift USD tone before CPI
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended into London · RSI 23 · price 1.40875
Lower-high chain from Monday open; Asian range broken lower at London open.
Lower highs have stepped down from the 1.4128 Monday high, and the London open broke the 1.4098 Asian low to print a 1.4087 session low, with USD giving back part of its post-NFP rally. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched. The 1.4104 lower high sits under the descending trendline, and Friday's 1.4059 NFP base is the next reference below.
Support: 1.40873, 1.40587, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.40979, 1.41042, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4098 Asian low would flag the London break as a false break
Clearing the 1.4104 lower high and the descending trendline ends the lower-high chain; the 50% fib of the Monday decline at 1.4108 and the 1.4128 Monday high sit above
Failure to hold the 1.4087 session low exposes the 1.4059 NFP base and the 1.4050 round number
Fed speakers during NY hours (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower into London open · RSI 26 · price 1.40924
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session after a weekend gap down.
Monday opened with a 10-pip gap below Friday's 1.4129 close. The Asia session then stepped lower from the 1.4128 Asian high in a chain of lower highs as USD gave back part of its post-NFP rally. Price is testing the 1.4090 post-NFP low at the London open, with RSI(14) near 26 and the 1.4104 swing high capping.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4104, 1.4128
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4090 post-NFP low exposes the 1.4052 Friday low
An M15 close above the 1.4104 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the Asia-session downtrend read
A recovery through the 1.4128 Asian high would erase the weekend gap
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT could materially shift USD tone during NY hours
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, oversold · price 1.40954
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high; London open made a new session low.
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, below the 1.4100 round number.
Monday opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close. Asia then printed a steady lower-high chain from the 1.4128 asia high, giving back Friday's post-jobs 1.4110–1.4120 area as the USD fades its post-NFP gains. Heading into the London open, price is pinned just under the 1.4100 round number near the 1.4096 session low, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR only about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.40958, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41145, 1.41283
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.4100 round number and the asia lower highs trendline keeps the intraday downtrend intact
A break of the 1.4096 session low exposes Friday's 1.4090 post-nfp low
A recovery above the 1.4115 lower high, near the 61.8% of the asia selloff fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting (17:00 GMT) could shift the USD leg
Lower highs through Asia, session low tested near 1.4100.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 1.4129 close. Asia has printed a lower-high chain from the 1.4128 asian high through the 1.4115 asia pivot and the 1.4104 lower high as the USD gives back post-NFP gains. Price is pressing the 1.4098 session low into the London open, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 3 pips, so ranges are tight.
Support: 1.40979, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41042, 1.41145, 1.41283
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4098 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward Friday's 1.4090 post-jobs low
A reclaim of the 1.4104 lower high and a break of the Asia trendline invalidate the downtrend read; above that, the 1.4115 asia pivot is next
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) could shift USD pricing during NY hours
Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT is an oil and USD risk that could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.41002
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high after a weekend gap down.
After a roughly 10-pip weekend gap down, Asia printed a chain of lower highs from the 1.41283 Asian high and slipped back through the 1.4110–1.4120 post-NFP area as USD gave back part of its post-NFP gains. Price is pressing the 1.4100 round number and the 1.40979 session low into the London open. That sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib retracement of Friday's NFP leg, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.40979, 1.40945, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40979 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 50% fib at 1.40945 and the 1.40900 nfp low (Friday's post-release pullback low)
Reclaim of the 1.41145 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read; above that, the Asian high at 1.41283 and the 1.41371 friday high come into view
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 and Barkin 17:15 GMT could shift USD during NY hours ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Lower highs since weekend gap-down open, price pinned to Asian low.
USDCAD opened the week with a 10-pip gap down from Friday's 1.4129 close and has bled lower through the late Asia session, with each lower high below the prior one as the dollar gives back part of its post-NFP gain. Price is now pressing the 1.4099 Asian low, which has been tested three times since 05:15 GMT, with the 1.4104 minor high capping. RSI(14) is near 29, soft but not extreme. The pair sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of Friday's jobs-driven rally.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4090, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4104, 1.4115, 1.4129
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4099 Asian low exposes the 1.4090 NFP pullback low near the 50% fib of Friday's rally, then the 1.4060 pre-NFP base
Reclaiming the 1.4104 minor high and the lower-high trendline toward 1.4115 would break the Asia lower-high sequence
An unfilled gap toward Friday's 1.4129 close stays the upside reference if the London open reverses the Asian drift
Oil and US-Iran headlines into London, then Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT (Bowman, Goolsbee), could shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, price pinned at the Asian low.
Late Asia, ahead of London open: USD/CAD opened with a 10-pip gap below Friday's close and has drifted from the 1.4128 Asian high to the 1.4099 Asian low and 1.4100 round number. Each bounce has stopped lower, most recently at 1.4114. Broad USD softness on Iran-diplomacy and tariff headlines is outweighing weaker crude. The move retraces roughly 43% of Friday's NFP leg, with RSI(14) near 33 and Friday's 1.4090 NFP pullback low just below.
Support: 1.40991, 1.4090, 1.40588
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4099 asian low and 1.4090 nfp pullback in early London extends the NFP leg retracement toward the 1.4059 pre-nfp base
Reclaim of the 1.4114 lower high breaks the Asian descending sequence and reopens the 1.4128 asian high
Friday high at 1.4137 caps the range above; only a move through the asian high brings it back into play
Fed speakers from Bowman 13:40 GMT could shift December hike pricing and this read during NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows from the weekly open gap; pausing at 1.4100.
USD/CAD opened the week with a gap about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close. The pair then bled lower through the Asia session as the USD faded on Iran-deal hopes, stepping down from the 1.4128 Asian high through a 1.4115 lower high to a 1.4099 session low. Price is now flat just above 1.4100 into the pre-London hours, with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.40991, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4099 session low extends the lower-low chain toward Friday's 1.4090 post-NFP low
Recovery above the 1.4115 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line and neutralises the sequence
London open typically expands the ~3-pip ATR; a move back toward the 1.4128 Asian high would fill the weekend gap
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40) and Goolsbee (15:00), plus the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could materially shift USD and oil
Lower highs and lower lows since the Monday open gap, price sitting at the Asian low.
USDCAD gapped about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close and has ground lower through the Asia session in a lower-high chain, printing an asian low at 1.4099 as the USD gives back part of its NFP gains. RSI(14) near 40 and the last three bars are small, so the slide has stalled just above the 1.4090 nfp dip low ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4090, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4115, 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4090 nfp dip low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4050 pre-nfp zone
M15 close above the 1.4115 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the downtrend read; 1.4128 asian high also marks the gap fill
A move through 1.4137 friday high would put price back above the NFP-driven peak
Trump–Qatar Iran meeting (17:00 GMT) and Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT could shift oil and USD and change this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.41021
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekend gap; Asia low at the 1.4100 round number.
USDCAD gapped about 10 pips lower at the open. Asia then built a lower-high chain from the 1.4128 Asia high to the 1.4114 lower high, briefly slipping under 1.4100 to a 1.4099 Asia low as softer oil and an easing USD weighed. Price sits near the 78.6% retracement of Friday's post-NFP leg, with ATR at a thin 3.3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.40991, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4090 post-nfp low would extend the lower-low sequence through Friday's leg
A move back above the 1.4114 lower high breaks the Asian downtrend line; the 1.4128 Asia high is the next reference above
London open typically expands the 3-pip Asian ATR; the first break of the Asian range sets the session tone
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and oil reaction to the Trump–Qatar Iran talks (17:00 GMT) could shift the read later today
05:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 32 · price 1.41001
Weekend gap lower, then a lower-high/lower-low chain testing 1.4100.
USDCAD gapped ~10 pips lower at the weekly open. Through the late Asian session it has carved lower highs from the 1.4128 session high, as a softer DXY and lower oil trim Friday's NFP-driven gains. Price is now pressing the 1.4100 round number with RSI(14) near 32, and the post-NFP low at 1.4090 sits just below.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4090, 1.40812
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4115 lower high breaks the Asian downtrend line
Failure to hold the 1.4090 post-NFP low exposes Friday's pre-NFP high at 1.4081
Reclaim of the 1.4128 session high fills the gap and puts the 1.4137 Friday high back in play
London open could extend or reject the Asian range low at 1.4100
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and the Trump–Qatar Iran talks (17:00 GMT) could shift oil and USD and alter this read
05:16 UTC
Asia drift lower, pulling back Friday's post-NFP rally · RSI 35 · price 1.4103
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, testing 38.2% retrace.
Sunday opened about 10 pips below Friday's close. Asia has since printed lower highs from the 1.4128 asian high along a falling trendline, and price is now at the 1.4101 asian low. That sits on the 38.2% retrace of Friday's 1.4052–1.4137 post-NFP rally as softer oil and Iran-deal hopes take some heat out of USD, with London open roughly two hours away.
Support: 1.4101, 1.4090, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4115, 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4101 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4090 post-nfp low and 50% of the Friday rally fib
Reclaim of the Asia trendline and 1.4115 swing high neutralises the Asia downtrend; the 1.4128 asian high and 1.4137 friday high sit above
Loss of 1.4090 opens a deeper retrace toward the 1.4052 pre-nfp low
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and the Trump–Qatar Iran talks (17:00 GMT) could shift USD and oil, and with them this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia after weekend gap down.
After a roughly 10-pip weekend gap down, the Asia session has stepped lower from the 1.4128 asia high to a fresh session low at 1.4103. Softer crude and an easing dollar are trimming part of Friday's NFP and Canada-jobs spike. Price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retrace of Friday's 1.4090–1.4137 leg, RSI(14) near 30, with the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4090 swing low directly below.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4090, 1.4058
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4115 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4128 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4090 swing low exposes the 1.4058 pre-nfp base
London open (08:00 UTC) is the first real test of the 1.4103–1.4128 Asian range
Fedspeak (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) and WTI direction could shift the read; a break above the 1.4137 friday high would reverse the intraday downtrend
04:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.41073
Lower highs since Monday's gap-down open; price pressing the Asian low.
Monday opened with a ~10-pip gap below Friday's 1.4129 close. Asia has printed lower highs along a falling trendline since, from the 1.41283 session high to the 1.41145 bounce high, as the dollar eases and crude slides. Price is now pressing the 1.41051 asian low, close to the 61.8% fib of Friday's post-data leg up from the 1.4090 swing low. RSI(14) is near 37 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.41051, 1.4100, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.41051 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4090 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.41145 bounce high breaks the falling trendline and the Asia lower-high chain
Gap fill toward 1.4129 and the 1.41283 session high would neutralise the Asian drift; the 1.41371 friday high caps above
Fedspeak from Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
04:31 UTC
Asia drift lower after weekend gap, now basing · RSI 41 · price 1.41117
Lower highs through Asia; shallow bounce stalling below 38.2% fib.
Friday's 13:30 UTC jobs split (US payrolls beat, Canada miss) spiked the pair from 1.4059 to a 1.4137 friday high. Monday opened with a ~10-pip gap lower, and Asia faded from the 1.4128 asian high to a 1.4105 asian low as the USD eased. Price is now coiling near 1.4112, just under the 38.2% fib at 1.4114.
Support: 1.41051, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.4114, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4105 asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4090 friday low
Close back above the 1.4128 asian high fills the weekend gap and puts the 1.4137 friday high back in play
London open is the first test of the Asian range; inside 1.4105–1.4128 the read stays range-bound
Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee) could shift Fed hike odds and this read
04:17 UTC
Asia drift lower, stalling near session low · RSI 44 · price 1.41122
Weekend gap down, lower highs from 1.4128, base forming above 1.4105.
USDCAD opened the week about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close. Asia has printed lower highs from the 1.4128 asian high to a 1.4105 asian low as USD gives back some post-NFP gains, while weak oil still weighs on CAD. Price is basing late in the Asia session, with the 1.4115 bounce high at the 38.2% fib of the Asian move. RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR is about 3.4 pips, a quiet tape ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41051, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41145, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4105 asian low exposes the 1.4090 post-nfp low from Friday's pullback
An M15 close above the 1.4115 bounce high (38.2% fib) turns focus to the asian high and gap fill at 1.4128–1.4129
The friday high at 1.4137 capped the post-NFP leg; a close above it extends that move
Fed speakers later today (Bowman 13:40 UTC, Goolsbee, Barkin) and the WTI direction could shift the USD/CAD tone
04:03 UTC
Asia pullback after weekend gap, stabilising · RSI 45 · price 1.41133
Lower highs from Asian high; micro higher lows off the 1.4105 Asian low.
USDCAD gapped about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close. The Asia session faded from the 1.4128 Asian high to a 1.4105 Asian low as USD softened, retracing roughly half of Friday's post-NFP leg. Price is now carving micro higher lows just under the EMA20 near 1.4114, with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.41051, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41142, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4128 Asian high fills the weekend gap and reopens the 1.4137 Friday high
Failure to hold the 1.4105 Asian low breaks the micro higher lows and exposes the 1.4090 post-NFP low
Failure to reclaim the EMA20 keeps the lower-high sequence from the Asian high intact
London open and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could break the Asian range; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
Lower highs and lows through Asia after a weekend gap, inside a 1.41051–1.41283 Asian range.
USD/CAD gapped 10 pips lower at the Monday open and has printed lower highs through Asia as the USD softens broadly. It tagged a 1.41051 Asian low and is now stabilising just under the 50% fib of Friday's post-NFP leg (1.41136). Price is pressing the Asia lower-highs trendline, sitting between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR(14) a thin ~4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41051, 1.4100, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41211, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.41211 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and brings the 1.41283 Asian high and Friday's 1.41293 close back into view, with the 1.41371 Friday high beyond.
Failure to hold the 1.41051 Asian low, just below the 61.8% fib at 1.41080, opens the 1.41000 round number and the 1.40900 post-NFP low.
Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) and oil headlines during NY hours could shift this read.
03:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, losing pace · RSI 39 · price 1.41114
Lower highs through Asia, small bounce off the session low.
Monday's Asia session opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close and has stepped lower from the 1.4128 asian high in a chain of lower highs, as USD softens broadly and Friday's NFP pop fades. Late in Asia, price is bouncing off the 1.4105 asian low into the descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 39 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4105, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.4121, 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
A close above the descending trendline and the 1.4121 lower high would break the Asia lower-high sequence and expose the 1.4128 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4105 asian low brings the 1.4090 post-NFP low into play
A recovery through 1.4128 puts the 1.4137 friday high back in focus
London open is likely to test the Asian range edges, and Fedspeak from Bowman at 13:40 UTC could shift the read
Lower highs through Asia after a gap down, sitting on 61.8% fib.
Asia opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close. Price has printed lower highs from the 1.4128 asia high down to a 1.4105 asia low as USD fades in thin early-Asia flow. Price is holding near the 61.8% fib of Friday's post-NFP leg (1.4090–1.4137), with RSI(14) near 32 and the gap still unfilled.
Support: 1.4108, 1.4105, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4105 asia low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.4090 nfp pullback low
Break of the asia lower-highs trendline and a reclaim of 1.4128 asia high would fill the gap and bring the 1.4137 friday high back into view
London open is the first test of the Asian range; crude direction feeds CAD
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak from 13:40 UTC and could shift the read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's gap-down open; testing 38.2% of Friday's NFP rally.
Monday's Asia session opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close as USD fades part of its NFP gains. It has since stepped lower from the 1.4128 session high to a fresh Asia low at 1.4105, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of Friday's jobs-data rally, with RSI(14) near 35. The descending trendline off the Asian lower highs caps price near 1.4114, and the 1.4121 lower high is the nearest structural pivot.
Support: 1.41051, 1.4100, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41211, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4121 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain and brings the 1.4128 session high and the gap fill to 1.4129 back into play
Sustained trade below the 1.4100 round number exposes the 50% retracement near 1.4095 and the 1.4090 post-NFP pullback low (nfp pb low)
A London open push through the 1.4137 Friday high would put price back above the full NFP-rally range
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak later Monday; hike-odds commentary could shift this read before Tuesday's US CPI
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia after a weekend gap down.
USDCAD gapped about 10 pips lower at the Monday open. It has printed lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session since, giving back part of Friday's NFP-driven rally as USD fades in early Asia. Price is now below the 61.8% retracement of Friday's 1.4090–1.4137 leg, with RSI(14) near 31 and the 1.4100 round number directly below.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41122, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 lower high breaks the Asia descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number exposes the 1.4090 post-NFP low and the 1.4073 breakout zone
Reclaiming the 1.4128 Asia high would neutralise the gap-down sequence; the 1.4137 Friday high sits just above
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Tuesday's US CPI and BoC Summary of Deliberations could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, gap below Friday close unfilled.
Monday opened with a gap down from Friday's 1.4129 close, and Asia has printed a chain of lower highs from 1.4128 to the 1.4121 lower high as USD gives back part of its NFP gains. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of Friday's 1.4090–1.4137 post-jobs leg, just above the 1.4109 session low, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.41088, 1.4100, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41211, 1.4129, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4109 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4090 swing low that anchors Friday's leg
Close above the 1.4121 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line and reopens the 1.4129 gap fill
Reclaim of the 1.4129 gap fill brings the 1.4137 friday high back into view
London open typically expands the Asian range; Fed's Bowman later Monday and Tuesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Gap-down open, Asia printing lower highs and lower lows.
Sunday's open gapped about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close. Asia has since stepped down in lower highs from the 1.4128 asian high, with price now pressing the asian low at 1.4109, near the 61.8% retrace of the post-NFP leg. Early-week USD softness on Iran-peace headlines is trimming Friday's NFP/Canada-jobs spike, and RSI(14) near 35 is not stretched.
Support: 1.41088, 1.4100, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41211, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4100 round number exposes the post-nfp low at 1.4090, the base of Friday's afternoon leg
An M15 close above the 1.4121 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain; the 1.4128 asian high and the 1.4129 gap fill sit just above
A reclaim of the 1.4137 friday high would cancel the pullback read
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Monday gap-down open, then lower highs sliding into the Asian low.
The Asian session opened about 10 pips below Friday's close. It has since printed lower highs at 1.4128 (Asian high) and 1.4121, and is now pressing the asian low at 1.4111 as USD gives back some of its NFP gains on Iran-peace hopes. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of Friday's post-NFP leg, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.4111, 1.4108, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.4121, 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4108 61.8% fib exposes the 1.4090 post-nfp low
A reclaim of the 1.4121 lower high breaks the Asian trendline and reopens the 1.4128 asian high and Friday's gap
The 1.4137 friday high marks the top of the post-NFP leg
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read
01:46 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend stalled, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.41143
Weekend gap below Friday close, tight Asian range with lower highs.
Monday's Asia session gapped ~10 pips below the 1.4129 friday close. Price has since drifted to the asian low at 1.4113, under the ema20 and a line of lower Asian highs. It now sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the post-NFP fib, which runs from 1.4059 to the 1.4137 friday high, as the market digests Friday's USD/CAD jobs-gap rally.
Support: 1.41127, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.4120, 1.41293, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4113 asian low exposes the 38.2% post-NFP fib near 1.4107, then the 1.4090 nfp pullback low
A close above the Asian highs trendline and the 1.4120 ema20 puts a gap fill to the 1.4129 friday close in view, then the 1.4137 friday high
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin from 13:40 UTC could shift December hike pricing and this read
Weekend gap down, Asian lower highs testing session low.
The Asia session opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close and has printed lower highs from the 1.4128 session high. Price is now pressing the 1.4113 session low, which is also the 50% fib of Friday's post-NFP 1.4090–1.4137 leg. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 5 pips, so this is a thin early-week drift rather than a break so far.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4100, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4113 session low exposes the 1.4100 round number and the 61.8% fib near 1.4108
A move back through the Asian lower highs and the 1.4128 session high would fill the weekend gap and put the 1.4137 friday high back in play
A break of the 1.4090 nfp low would unwind Friday's post-NFP leg on this timeframe
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin speak today and could shift December hike pricing and this read
01:16 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend paused, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.41169
Tight Asian range below unfilled weekend gap.
Monday opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close, and the Asia session has held a narrow 1.4114–1.4128 range with the weekend gap still unfilled. Price is retesting the 38.2–50% zone of the post-NFP leg from the 1.4090 swing low to the 1.4137 Friday high. RSI(14) is soft near 38 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.41138, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4114 Asian low (50% of the post-NFP leg) exposes the 1.4090 swing low
Reclaiming the 1.4128 Asian high fills the weekend gap and reopens the 1.4137 Friday high
London open is the first test of the Asian range
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee speak later today and could shift December hike pricing
Tight Asian range 1.4114–1.4128 below unfilled gap.
Asia session opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close, after the US NFP beat and Canada jobs miss drove the pair to a 1.4137 Friday high. Since the open, price has held a tight 1.4114–1.4128 Asian range sitting on the 38.2% retrace of Friday's 1.4090–1.4137 leg. The gap is unfilled and RSI(14) is near 43.
Support: 1.41138, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41293, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4129 gap fill reopens the 1.4137 friday high
Break of the 1.4114 asian low, also the 50% fib, exposes the 1.4090 post-nfp low
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin (Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC) could shift the read during NY hours
Tight Asian range under Friday close after weekend gap, 1.4090 higher low intact.
Monday Asia opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close and has stayed in a 1.4114–1.4128 range without filling the gap. Price is holding between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the post-NFP leg from 1.4090 to Friday's 1.4137 high, which followed the US 165K beat against Canada's -4.7K print. RSI(14) sits near 41 and the EMA20 caps just overhead at about 1.4121.
Support: 1.41138, 1.4108, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4114 session low exposes the fib 61.8% at 1.4108, then the 1.4090 post-NFP low
Reclaiming the 1.4128 session high fills the weekend gap and puts the 1.4137 Friday high back in play
London open is the first test of the Asian range; Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin (13:40–17:15 UTC) could shift the read later Monday
Tight Asian range below Friday close; post-NFP HH/HL chain intact above 1.4090.
Monday opened with a ~10-pip gap below Friday's 1.4129 close after the NFP beat and Canada jobs miss drove the rally. Early Asia session has held a 1.4116–1.4128 range, between the asian low and asian high, with price parked on the 38.2% retrace of the post-NFP leg from 1.4090 to the 1.4137 friday high. RSI(14) is neutral near 42.
Support: 1.41157, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4116 asian low exposes the 50% retrace at 1.4114, then the post-nfp low at 1.4090
Break of the 1.4128 asian high would fill the weekend gap and put the 1.4137 friday high back in play
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin later Monday could shift December hike pricing and this read
Weekend oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver during Asia hours
00:16 UTC
Post-jobs uptrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 43 · price 1.41191
Weekend gap below Friday close, tight Asian range holding at 38.2% of the post-NFP leg.
Friday's leg higher on the US 165K NFP beat and Canada's -4.7K jobs miss topped at the 1.41371 Friday high. Monday's Asia session opened about 10 pips below the 1.41293 Friday close, and the early gap fill attempt was rejected at 1.41283. Price is now compressed in a 1.4116–1.4128 Asian range, sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP leg, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.41157, 1.41136, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.41293, 1.41371
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.41293 gap fill reopens the 1.41371 Friday high
Failure to hold the 1.41157 Asian low exposes the fib 50% at 1.41136 and then the 1.40900 post-NFP low
Monday Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could shift December hike pricing during the NY session
Weekend oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver until Tuesday's CPI and BoC Summary
00:02 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, pausing after Monday gap · RSI 34 · price 1.41179
Gap lower at Asia open, tight Asian range below Friday close.
Monday's Asia session opened about 10 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close. The Asian range so far is 1.4116–1.4128, holding near the 38.2% retrace of Friday's NFP/CA-jobs leg from 1.4090 to 1.4137. RSI(14) is around 34 and price sits below EMA20 but above EMA50; the higher-low chain from Friday is intact, and the gap fill at 1.4129 capped the early spike.
Support: 1.41159, 1.41136, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41293, 1.41371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 50% at 1.4114, under the asian low, would break Friday's higher-low chain and bring the 1.4100 round number into view
Reclaiming the gap fill at 1.4129 and clearing the friday high at 1.4137 would resume the post-NFP higher-high sequence
Thin Asia liquidity; weekend US-Iran/oil headlines are the main near-term driver, with Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) on December hike odds