22:04 UTC
October downtrend stalling, rebound under way · RSI 58 · price 1.41177
Double top at 1.4299, LH/LL leg to 1.3929, lower-high line broken.
The September rally from the 1.3759 sep low peaked in a double top at 1.4298–1.4299 on Oct 9 and Oct 14. The mid-October break of the 1.4196 neckline started a lower-high, lower-low chain that bottomed at the 1.3929 nov low on Nov 4. Friday's US/Canada jobs split (NFP 165K beat vs a Canadian -4.7K miss) produced a roughly 110-pip daily bar through the lower-high line and back above the flattening EMA(50) near 1.4040. Price is now holding near the 50% retracement of the October decline, with the 61.8% fib at 1.4158 overhead.
Support: 1.4040, 1.3929, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4158, 1.4196, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4158 would put the 1.4196 neckline and the 1.4299 double top back in play
- A return below the ema50 near 1.4040 would re-establish the lower-high line as resistance and the October downtrend structure
- Failure to hold the 1.3929 nov low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the decline from the double top
- US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
- Further crude weakness has been weighing on CAD and could keep the rebound extending toward the neckline