Higher highs and higher lows, paused below 1.4024.
USDCAD remains in a clean higher-high/higher-low uptrend, clearing the March peak and tagging 1.4024 before sellers capped the spike and pulled price back below 1.4000. The leg has been fed by a firm USD post-PPI and a dovish-leaning BoC hold, but the rejection at 1.4024 and an overbought-then-cooling RSI show momentum slowing into the round number. Price holds well above the EMA20/EMA50 stack, keeping the broader structure intact.
Support: 1.3930, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4000, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 opens the path toward the 1.41400 congestion zone
Failure to hold 1.3930 weekly low would mark the first lower-low of the move
FOMC dot plot and US Retail Sales (Jun 17) are dominant catalysts that could reshape this read
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, having broken above the March peak after a dovish-leaning BoC hold and hot US PPI lifted the dollar. Price spiked to a 1.4024 week high before sellers capped it at the 1.40 round number and pulled it back to 1.3968, leaving a rejection wick. Higher-low structure off the early-June base is intact and ATR(14) is expanding as the trend extends toward the 1.4140 congestion.
Support: 1.3930, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4000, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 week high opens the path to the 1.4140 congestion
Loss of the 1.3900 weekly low would break the higher-low structure
FOMC dot plot and US Retail Sales (Jun 17) are the dominant catalysts for the next sessions
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, printing fresh YTD highs at 1.40235 as hot US PPI and a safe-haven dollar bid kept the Loonie pressured after the BoC's patient hold. Price tagged the round 1.4000 figure then pulled back to 1.3953 before recovering toward 1.3988, with ATR(14) expanding as the trend extends. The 1.40-1.41 congestion is now the area to watch for rejection or continuation.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4000, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the 1.4140 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3900 weekly-low pivot signals a deeper CAD recovery
Michigan Sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, at YTD highs · RSI 62 · price 1.39875
Higher highs / higher lows, stalling under 1.40.
USDCAD extended its multi-week uptrend to a fresh YTD high at 1.4024 before sellers capped the spike, with price now consolidating in the high 1.39s. The leg has been driven by a firm USD on hot US PPI and safe-haven flows against a patient-BoC, soft-Canada backdrop. ATR(14) is expanding alongside the advance, and price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3951, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 opens the path into the 1.4140 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3951 would mark the first lower-low and threaten 1.3900
US Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read in the next bars
Higher highs / higher lows, fresh YTD high probed.
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, breaking the March peak to print fresh YTD highs as a dovish-leaning BoC hold and softer oil pressured the loonie. Price spiked to 1.40235 then faded back under 1.3990, leaving a rejection wick at the ytd high while higher-low structure stays intact. EMA20 holds above EMA50 with both beneath price, consistent with momentum still pointed up but stalling into prior congestion.
Support: 1.3930, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.40235 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3930 breaks the higher-low sequence
Michigan sentiment + UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD tone
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, posting fresh YTD highs near 1.4024 after the dovish-leaning BoC hold and softer oil weighed on CAD. The spike above the 1.4000 round number was rejected and faded back into the high 1.39s, leaving a false-break tone at the YTD high. EMA20 sits above EMA50 with price holding above both, but RSI near 60 and the rejection at 1.4024 show momentum cooling at the top of the range.
Support: 1.3920, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 ytd high opens the path toward the 1.40-1.41 zone
Failure to hold 1.39000 weekly low would mark a lower-low and break the higher-low sequence
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 57 · price 1.3973
Higher highs/lows, rejected at ytd high.
USDCAD has carried a clean higher-high/higher-low structure since the early-month base near 1.3773, pressing to a fresh YTD high at 1.4024 before a sharp intrabar reversal left a false break of the 1.40 round number. The grind reflects firm USD on Iran haven flows plus CAD softness after the BoC's fifth straight hold; price has since stabilised around 1.3973, holding above both EMAs. ATR(14) is expanding as the move extends toward the 1.40-1.41 congestion.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4000
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 ytd high opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Close below 1.3900 weekly low eases the higher-low structure
Michigan Sentiment + UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
Higher highs / higher lows, spike-rejected at 1.40.
Clean higher-high / higher-low structure since early June, with price breaking the 1.3969 YTD high and tagging 1.40235 before being rejected back to 1.3973 — a false break above the round number on a single expansion bar. The move fits broad USD haven strength against a soft CAD post-BoC hold, with prior resistance at 1.3969 now the first support to hold. ATR(14) has expanded on the latest leg, leaving the 1.40-1.41 congestion as the next overhead zone.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3920, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4060
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 spike high opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Loss of 1.3969 ytd high exposes 1.3920 swing low
Close below 1.3900 weekly low eases the bull structure
Michigan Sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift the broad USD read
USDCAD extended its multi-week uptrend, tagging 1.40235 before sellers capped the spike and price pulled back to 1.39725 — the 1.3969 six-month high now acts as a flipped pivot. The advance is underpinned by a firm USD into FOMC week and a soft loonie after the neutral-to-dovish BoC hold. Higher-low structure remains intact, but the rejection wick at 1.40235 and stretched RSI point to momentum cooling.
Support: 1.3969, 1.38989, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the 1.4140 Nov high
Failure to hold 1.3969 pivot exposes 1.38989 swing low
UoM Michigan Sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
Multi-week uptrend intact: USDCAD cleared the six-month high near 1.3969 and spiked to 1.40235 before a sharp rejection back to 1.3965, the move supported by a firm USD into FOMC week and a neutral-to-dovish BoC hold. ATR(14) is expanding as the pair extends, but the long upper wick into 1.40235 shows supply capping the high. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the higher-low sequence from the early-month base in play.
Support: 1.39186, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.39852
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 reopens the path toward the 1.4140 Nov high
Failure to hold 1.39186 swing low signals a deeper pullback toward 1.3900
Oil direction and US-Iran headlines remain the primary CAD driver