Uptrend intact with higher lows since early-month at 1.3715; price punched to a fresh multi-month high at 1.40235 but the final bar rejected hard, leaving a long upper wick and closing back below the 1.3969 six-month pivot. USD held firm into FOMC on sticky-PPI and Middle East safe-haven flows while CAD stayed soft post-dovish BoC, but the rejection and elevated RSI flag the move as stretched.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.3969 reasserts the breakout toward 1.40235
Failure to hold 1.3900 weekly low confirms a deeper unwind
Michigan sentiment Fri and next week's FOMC are the live USD catalysts
Uptrend intact with higher highs and higher lows since early month; the push to a fresh six-month high at 1.4024 was rejected hard, leaving a long upper wick back to 1.3957. The leg up tracks a firm USD into FOMC and a soft CAD after the neutral-to-dovish BoC hold, with oil and Iran risk premium amplifying the move. ATR is expanding and the rally is stretched, hence the supply capping at the 1.40 figure.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 opens the path toward 1.4140 nov high
Failure to hold 1.3900 weekly low confirms a lower-low and breaks the uptrend
Michigan Sentiment and next week's FOMC could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to fresh cycle highs at 1.40235 and cleared the 1.3969 six-month pivot, with the breakout backed by a firm USD into FOMC and a neutral-to-dovish BoC hold. Higher-low structure has held since the early-month dip near 1.3789, and ATR(14) is expanding as the trend extends through the 1.4000 round number. RSI is in overbought territory, flagging stretched momentum.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3969, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.3969 would negate the breakout and put the prior high back in play
Loss of 1.3900 weekly low would mark a lower-low and break the rising support line
Michigan Sentiment Fri and next week's FOMC are the dominant catalysts for this read
USDCAD has held a clean higher-low sequence through the window and broke the 1.3969 six-month pivot, printing a fresh cycle high at 1.4024 as CAD stays pressured by Fed-BoC divergence and a firm safe-haven USD after the hot US PPI print. The dovish-leaning BoC hold removed CAD policy support, and price now trades above both EMAs with the slope steepening. RSI near 71 flags stretched momentum into the breakout.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4140
What it said to watch
Sustained close back below 1.3969 would negate the breakout and return price into the prior range
Failure to hold 1.3900 weekly low confirms a deeper pullback in the up-leg
A push through 1.4024 opens the path toward the 1.4140 November high
Michigan Sentiment Fri could shift the USD read and this structure
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 69 · price 1.39862
Higher highs and higher lows, fresh breakout.
USDCAD pushed to a fresh ~13-month high and has cleared the 1.3969/70 YTD high, with the last two bars accelerating toward the 1.4000 psych level. The structure is a clean multi-week uptrend — higher highs and higher lows — driven by soft oil and a neutral-to-dovish BoC hold while the USD stays firm. RSI near 69 flags an overbought condition into the move, but price remains comfortably above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4000
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below 1.3969 would put price back inside the prior range and negate the breakout
1.4000 psych level is the next overhead area to watch for rejection or break
US PPI/jobless claims today and Michigan sentiment Friday could shift this read
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, posting higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 1.3770, and has now cleared the 1.3969 YTD high on the back of widening US-Canada yield spreads and a dovish BoC hold. ATR(14) is expanding as the breakout extends, with price holding above both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.3969 prior ceiling now stands as the first reference support on any retest.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3920, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39801, 1.4140
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.3969 on a closing basis would mark a failed break of the YTD high
Sustained acceptance above 1.3980 opens the path toward the 1.4140 Nov high
US PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
10:22 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 69 · price 1.39772
Higher highs, higher lows; fresh range high.
Higher-low structure intact through the window, with price clearing the 1.3969 YTD high in the latest bars as the BoC dovish-hold and widening US-Canada yield spreads kept CAD on the back foot. ATR(14) is holding a healthy expansion regime and price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI near 69 leaves limited room before overbought stalls the grind.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3900, 1.3865
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.3969 negates the breakout and signals a failed-break retest
US PPI today 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Loss of 1.3900 weekly low confirms a deeper correction
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 65 · price 1.39761
Higher highs, breaking YTD ceiling.
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, printing higher highs and higher lows for three weeks and now pushing through the 1.3969 YTD ceiling on the latest bar. CAD stays pinned near cycle lows after the dovish BoC hold while the higher-for-longer Fed narrative widens yield spreads. ATR(14) is expanding into the break, with the rally testing the prior six-month high as the first hurdle for continuation.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3920, 1.3900
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.3969 would turn the break into a false break
US PPI + jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil/WTI above $95 is the primary CAD support capping the pair
USDCAD has ground higher through the window in an ascending channel and the latest bar pushed through the 1.3969 YTD ceiling that capped price repeatedly into fresh highs, helped by the dovish-leaning BoC hold and a firm USD. ATR(14) sits in a moderate regime with the breakout extending rather than compressing; price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.3969 level now flips to first support, with 1.4140 the next multi-day reference above.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3920, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4140
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.3969 keeps the path open toward 1.4140
A close back below 1.3969 negates the breakout and returns price into the prior range
US PPI + jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Higher highs / higher lows, consolidating below range high.
USDCAD remains in an ascending channel with higher lows intact since early-month, the loonie pinned near six-month lows after a dovish BoC hold and widening US-Canada spreads. Price has stalled in a tight consolidation just under the 1.39688 high, with ATR(14) easing as the move loses thrust. Demand has repeatedly stepped in around the 1.3900 area while supply caps near the range high.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38649, 1.38326
Resistance: 1.39688, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.39688 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3900 exposes the 1.38649 swing low and questions the channel
Next week's FOMC is the key catalyst that could materially shift this read
Higher-high / higher-low structure intact since the early-month base at 1.3770, price grinding inside an ascending channel toward the 1.3969 six-month high. CAD stayed soft after the neutral-dovish BoC hold while USD held firm into FOMC, leaving the loonie pinned near YTD lows. Repeated stalls at 1.3969 have price consolidating just below, with ATR(14) still elevated as the trend extends.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3865, 1.3820
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3900 exposes the channel base near 1.3820
FOMC next week is the key USD breakout catalyst for this read
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below range high.
USDCAD remains in a multi-week uptrend, grinding higher-lows toward the 1.3969 six-month high as CAD lags on widening US-Canada yield spreads and a firm USD into FOMC. Price is consolidating just below that ceiling after the push from the 1.3865 base; ATR holds a moderate regime and RSI sits mid-band, leaving the advance intact but losing pace. The 1.3900 area has absorbed dips twice and stands as the first structural floor.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38807, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39688
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3900 confirms a lower-high and shift to range
US PPI + jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD has trended higher through the window, posting a six-month high at 1.3969 as the CAD lagged G10 peers following the BoC's confirmed pause and widening US-Canada yield spreads. Price is now consolidating in the upper 1.39s, holding a series of higher lows above the 1.3900 area while capped by the 1.3969 high. ATR(14) near 125 pips reflects a steady, non-compressed advance rather than fresh expansion.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3882
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3900 breaks the higher-low sequence
US PPI + jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near range high · RSI 56 · price 1.39447
Higher highs/lows, consolidating below 1.3969.
Multi-week uptrend intact with higher highs and higher lows since the early-month 1.3702 base; price pushed to a six-month high at 1.3969 then stalled, now consolidating in the low 1.394s. The grind reflects firm USD post-CPI and a soft CAD after the BoC hold, with widening US-Canada yield spreads doing the work. ATR has compressed as the move flattens just under resistance.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward the 1.4140 nov high
Failure to hold 1.3900 round level would break the rising trendline and signal a lower-low
US PPI + jobless claims today 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below range top.
Clean uptrend with higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 1.3705; the advance has stalled into the 1.3969 six-month high, with price now ranging in the 1.3920-1.3970 zone. USD remains broadly bid after the strong NFP and in-line CPI while the BoC's dovish hold keeps CAD soft, underpinning the structure. ATR is moderate and the pause below 1.3969 looks like consolidation rather than reversal.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3969 six-month high opens the path toward the 1.4140 nov high
Failure to hold 1.3900 round level would break the higher-low sequence
US PPI + jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read